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Learning, prices and firm dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Paulo Bastos
  • Daniel A. Dias
  • Olga A. Timoshenko
Abstract
We document new facts about the evolution of firm performance and prices in international markets and propose a theory of firm dynamics emphasizing the interaction between learning about demand and quality choice to explain the observed patterns. Using data from the Portuguese manufacturing sector, we find that: (1) firms with longer spells of activity in export destinations tend to ship larger quantities at lower prices; (2) older exporters tend to use more expensive inputs; (3) the volatility of output and input prices tends to decline with export experience; and (4) input prices and quantities tend to increase with revenue growth within firms. We develop a model of endogenous input and output quality choices in a learning environment that is able to account for these patterns. Counterfactual simulations reveal that minimum quality standards on traded goods reduce welfare by lowering entry in export markets and reallocating resources from old and large towards young and small firms. Apprentissage, prix, et dynamique de la firme. Les auteurs documentent certains faits nouveaux dans l’évolution de la performance de la firme et des prix dans les marchés internationaux et proposent une théorie de la dynamique des firmes mettant l’accent sur l’interaction entre l’apprentissage à propos de la demande et du choix de qualité pour expliquer les patterns observés. À l’aide de données pour le secteur manufacturier au Portugal, on découvre que (1) les firmes qui ont une plus longue expérience dans les activités d’exportations tendent à expédier de plus grandes quantités à plus bas prix, (2) les exportateurs avec le plus d’expérience tendent à utiliser des intrants qui coûtent plus cher, (3) la volatilité des prix des extrants et des intrants tend à décliner à proportion que l’expérience dans l’exportation s’accroît, et (4) les prix et les quantités des intrants tendent à s’accroître à proportion que la croissance des revenus des firmes s’accroît. On développe un modèle de choix endogènes de la qualité des intrants et des extrants dans un environnement d’apprentissage qui est capable d’expliquer ces patterns. Des simulations contrefactuelles montrent que le maintien de normes minimales de qualité sur les produits échangés réduit le mieux être en réduisant l’entrée dans les marchés d’exportations en réallouant des ressources depuis les vieilles et grandes firmes vers des firmes plus jeunes et plus petites.

Suggested Citation

  • Paulo Bastos & Daniel A. Dias & Olga A. Timoshenko, 2018. "Learning, prices and firm dynamics," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(4), pages 1257-1311, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:canjec:v:51:y:2018:i:4:p:1257-1311
    DOI: 10.1111/caje.12361
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    Cited by:

    1. Anne‐Célia Disdier & Carl Gaigné & Cristina Herghelegiu, 2023. "Do standards improve the quality of traded products?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(4), pages 1238-1290, November.
    2. Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr & Ryan Monarch, 2015. "Learning and the Value of Relationships in International Trade," 2015 Meeting Papers 668, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Alessandria, George & Choi, Horag & Ruhl, Kim J., 2021. "Trade adjustment dynamics and the welfare gains from trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    4. Doireann Fitzgerald & Stefanie Haller & Yaniv Yedid, 2024. "How Exporters Grow," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(4), pages 2276-2306.
    5. Olga A. Timoshenko & Erick Sager, 2017. "Uncertainty and Trade Elasticities," Working Papers 2017-8, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    6. Felipe Benguria & Alvaro Garcia-Marin & Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr, 2023. "Trade Credit and Relationships," CESifo Working Paper Series 10465, CESifo.
    7. Costas Arkolakis & Theodore Papageorgiou & Olga Timoshenko, 2018. "Firm Learning and Growth," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 27, pages 146-168, January.
      • Costas Arkolakis & Theodore Papageorgiou & Olga A. Timoshenko, 2015. "Firm Learning and Growth," Working Papers 2015-5, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    8. Artuc, Erhan & Bastos, Paulo & Rijkers, Bob, 2023. "Robots, tasks, and trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    9. Rigo, Davide, 2024. "The role of firm-to-firm relationships in exporter dynamics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121135, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Pushan Dutt & Ana Maria Santacreu & Daniel A. Traça, 2022. "The gravity of experience," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(1), pages 213-248, February.
    11. Brendan Epstein & Alan Finkelstein Shapiro & Andres Gonzalez Gomez, 2017. "Financial Disruptions and the Cyclical Upgrading of Labor," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 26, pages 204-224, October.
    12. Andrea Ariu & Florian Mayneris & Mathieu Parenti, 2016. "Providing Services to Boost Goods Exports: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2016-43, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    13. Macedoni, Luca & Weinberger, Ariel, 2022. "Quality heterogeneity and misallocation: The welfare benefits of raising your standards," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    14. Ryan Monarch & Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr, 2017. "Learning and the Value of Trade Relationships," International Finance Discussion Papers 1218, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Kim Huynh & Robert Petrunia & Joel Rodrigue & Walter Steingress, 2023. "Exporting and Investment Under Credit Constraints," Staff Working Papers 23-10, Bank of Canada.
    16. Monarch, Ryan & Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim, 2023. "Longevity and the value of trade relationships," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    17. Gullstrand, Joakim & Knutsson, Polina, 2019. "The Spatial Dimension of Import Competition," Working Papers 2019:13, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    18. Davide Rigo, 2024. "The role of firm‐to‐firm relationships in exporter dynamics," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(362), pages 569-587, April.

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    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology

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