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The effect of cap-and-trade programs on firms' profits: Evidence from the Nitrogen Oxides Budget Trading Program

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  • Linn, Joshua
Abstract
Cap-and-trade programs have become an increasingly common means of regulating emissions from electric power plants, but there is little empirical evidence about the programs' effects on regulated firms' profits. This paper uses stock prices to estimate the change in expected profits under the Nitrogen Oxides Budget Trading Program (NBP). Using regional variation in compliance costs, I find that the NBP reduced expected profits by as much as $25 billion, primarily affecting the values of coal generators that operate in states with restructured electricity markets.

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  • Linn, Joshua, 2010. "The effect of cap-and-trade programs on firms' profits: Evidence from the Nitrogen Oxides Budget Trading Program," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 1-14, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeeman:v:59:y:2010:i:1:p:1-14
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    Cited by:

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    3. James B. Bushnell & Howard Chong & Erin T. Mansur, 2009. "Profiting from Regulation: An Event Study of the EU Carbon Market," NBER Working Papers 15572, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Löschel, Andreas & Lutz, Benjamin Johannes & Managi, Shunsuke, 2019. "The impacts of the EU ETS on efficiency and economic performance – An empirical analyses for German manufacturing firms," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 71-95.
    5. Gabriel E Lade & C -Y Cynthia Lin Lawell & Aaron Smith, 2018. "Policy Shocks and Market-Based Regulations: Evidence from the Renewable Fuel Standard," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(3), pages 707-731.
    6. Larry Karp & Armon Rezai, 2022. "Trade and Resource Sustainability with Asset Markets," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 929-953, September.
    7. Stefano Carattini & Suphi Sen, 2019. "Carbon Taxes and Stranded Assets: Evidence from Washington State," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper1910, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    8. Sen, Suphi & von Schickfus, Marie-Theres, 2020. "Climate policy, stranded assets, and investors’ expectations," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    9. Feijoo, Felipe & Das, Tapas K., 2014. "Design of Pareto optimal CO2 cap-and-trade policies for deregulated electricity networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 371-383.
    10. Kyle C. Meng, 2017. "Using a Free Permit Rule to Forecast the Marginal Abatement Cost of Proposed Climate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(3), pages 748-784, March.
    11. van den Bijgaart, Inge & Rodriguez, Mauricio, 2023. "Closing wells: Fossil development and abandonment in the energy transition," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    12. Hong, Zhaofu & Chu, Chengbin & Zhang, Linda L. & Yu, Yugang, 2017. "Optimizing an emission trading scheme for local governments: A Stackelberg game model and hybrid algorithm," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 172-182.
    13. Frank Venmans, 2015. "Capital market response to emission allowance prices: a multivariate GARCH approach," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 17(4), pages 577-620, October.
    14. E. Mark Curtis, 2014. "Who Loses Under Power Plant Cap-and-Trade Programs?," NBER Working Papers 20808, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. TAKATSUKA Hajime & NAKAMURA Ryohei, 2010. "Emission Credit Trading and Regional Inequalities," Discussion papers 10062, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    16. Makridou, Georgia & Doumpos, Michalis & Galariotis, Emilios, 2019. "The financial performance of firms participating in the EU emissions trading scheme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 250-259.
    17. Petrick, Sebastian & Wagner, Ulrich J., 2014. "The impact of carbon trading on industry: Evidence from German manufacturing firms," Kiel Working Papers 1912, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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