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Rich or alive? Political (in)stability, political leader selection and economic growth

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  • Yu, Shu
  • Jong-A-Pin, Richard
Abstract
We develop a model that studies the incentives of the ruling elite regarding the selection of the political leader. We show that it is optimal for the ruling elite to choose leaders with more military experience in a politically unstable regime while more educated leaders are preferred in politically stable regimes. Using a dataset that includes 1569 national leaders from 177 countries over the period 1946–2011, we find empirical evidence that political stability contributes to the selection of more educated leaders, while the reverse holds for leaders with high military ranks. The empirical findings are robust to different subsamples, various proxies for educational and military attainment, and different measures for political stability. Our results suggest that leader selection is another reason why political instability is harmful for economic growth.

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  • Yu, Shu & Jong-A-Pin, Richard, 2020. "Rich or alive? Political (in)stability, political leader selection and economic growth," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 561-577.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jcecon:v:48:y:2020:i:3:p:561-577
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2019.11.004
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    2. Chandan Jain & Shagun Kashyap & Rahul Lahoti & Soham Sahoo, 2022. "Is economic development affected by the leaders' education levels?: Evidence from India," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-68, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Jong-A-Pin, Richard & Mierau, Jochen O., 2022. "No country for old men: Aging dictators and economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
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    5. Jain, Chandan & Kashyap, Shagun & Lahoti, Rahul & Sahoo, Soham, 2023. "The impact of educated leaders on economic development: Evidence from India," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 1068-1093.
    6. Feng, Jie & Gao, Junhong, 2023. "Natural resource curse hypothesis and governance: Understanding the role of rule of law and political risk in the context of China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).

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