Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]

skip to main content
10.1145/2939672.2939736acmconferencesArticle/Chapter ViewAbstractPublication PageskddConference Proceedingsconference-collections
research-article
Public Access

Crime Rate Inference with Big Data

Published: 13 August 2016 Publication History

Abstract

Crime is one of the most important social problems in the country, affecting public safety, children development, and adult socioeconomic status. Understanding what factors cause higher crime is critical for policy makers in their efforts to reduce crime and increase citizens' life quality. We tackle a fundamental problem in our paper: crime rate inference at the neighborhood level. Traditional approaches have used demographics and geographical influences to estimate crime rates in a region. With the fast development of positioning technology and prevalence of mobile devices, a large amount of modern urban data have been collected and such big data can provide new perspectives for understanding crime. In this paper, we used large-scale Point-Of-Interest data and taxi flow data in the city of Chicago, IL in the USA. We observed significantly improved performance in crime rate inference compared to using traditional features. Such an improvement is consistent over multiple years. We also show that these new features are significant in the feature importance analysis.

References

[1]
Foursquare venues service. https://developer.foursquare.com/overview/venues.html.
[2]
United states census bureau. http://www.census.gov.
[3]
City of chicago data portal. https://data.cityofchicago.org/Public-Safety/Crimes-2001-to-present/ijzp-q8t2, 2015.
[4]
Anselin, L. Under the hood: issues in the specification and interpretation of spatial regression models. Agricultural economics 27, 3 (2002), 247--267.
[5]
Anselin, L., Cohen, J., Cook, D., Gorr, W., and Tita, G. Spatial analyses of crime. Criminal justice 4, 2 (2000), 213--262.
[6]
Baum, K. Juvenile victimization and offending, 1993--2003. US Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics, 2005.
[7]
Bogomolov, A., Lepri, B., Staiano, J., Oliver, N., Pianesi, F., and Pentland, A. Once upon a crime: towards crime prediction from demographics and mobile data. In Proceedings of the 16th international conference on multimodal interaction (2014), ACM, pp. 427--434.
[8]
Braithwaite, J. Crime, shame and reintegration. Cambridge University Press, 1989.
[9]
Brantingham, P., and Brantingham, P. Criminality of place. European journal on criminal policy and research 3, 3 (1995), 5--26.
[10]
Buczak, A. L., and Gifford, C. M. Fuzzy association rule mining for community crime pattern discovery. In ACM SIGKDD Workshop on Intelligence and Security Informatics (2010), ACM, p. 2.
[11]
Burnell, J. D. Crime and racial composition in contiguous communities as negative externalities: prejudiced household's evaluation of crime rate and segregation nearby reduces housing values and tax revenues. American Journal of Economics and Sociology 47, 2 (1988), 177--193.
[12]
Chainey, S., Tompson, L., and Uhlig, S. The utility of hotspot mapping for predicting spatial patterns of crime. Security Journal 21, 1 (2008), 4--28.
[13]
Cohen, L. E., and Felson, M. Social change and crime rate trends: A routine activity approach. American sociological review (1979), 588--608.
[14]
Eck, J., Chainey, S., Cameron, J., and Wilson, R. Mapping crime: Understanding hotspots.
[15]
Ehrlich, I. On the relation between education and crime. In Education, income, and human behavior. NBER, 1975, pp. 313--338.
[16]
Finkelhor, D. Childhood victimization: violence, crime, and abuse in the lives of young people: violence, crime, and abuse in the lives of young people. Oxford University Press, USA, 2008.
[17]
for Disease Control, N. C., and (CDC), P. Leading causes of nonfatal injury, united states 2001 - 2013. Injury Prevention and Control: data and statistics (2015).
[18]
Freeman, R. B. The economics of crime. Handbook of labor economics 3 (1999), 3529--3571.
[19]
Gardner, W., Mulvey, E. P., and Shaw, E. C. Regression analyses of counts and rates: Poisson, overdispersed poisson, and negative binomial models. Psychological bulletin 118, 3 (1995), 392.
[20]
Gerber, M. S. Predicting crime using twitter and kernel density estimation. Decision Support Systems 61 (2014).
[21]
Gorman, D. M., Speer, P. W., Gruenewald, P. J., and Labouvie, E. W. Spatial dynamics of alcohol availability, neighborhood structure and violent crime. Journal of studies on alcohol 62, 5 (2001), 628--636.
[22]
Graif, C. Toward a geographically extended perspective of neighborhood effects on children's victimization. American Society of Criminology Annual Meeting (2015).
[23]
Graif, C., Gladfelter, A. S., and Matthews, S. A. Urban poverty and neighborhood effects on crime: Incorporating spatial and network perspectives. Sociology Compass 8, 9 (2014), 1140--1155.
[24]
Graif, C., and Sampson, R. J. Spatial heterogeneity in the effects of immigration and diversity on neighborhood homicide rates. Homicide Studies (2009).
[25]
Hsieh, C.-C., and Pugh, M. D. Poverty, income inequality, and violent crime: a meta-analysis of recent aggregate data studies. Criminal Justice Review 18, 2 (1993), 182--202.
[26]
Jacobs, J. The death and life of great American cities. Vintage, 1961.
[27]
Lambert, D. Zero-inflated poisson regression, with an application to defects in manufacturing. Technometrics 34, 1 (1992), 1--14.
[28]
Mohler, G. O., Short, M. B., Brantingham, P. J., Schoenberg, F. P., and Tita, G. E. Self-exciting point process modeling of crime. Journal of the American Statistical Association (2012).
[29]
Morenoff, J. D., and Sampson, R. J. Violent crime and the spatial dynamics of neighborhood transition: Chicago, 1970--1990. Social forces 76, 1 (1997), 31--64.
[30]
Nakaya, T., and Yano, K. Visualising crime clusters in a space-time cube: An exploratory data-analysis approach using space-time kernel density estimation and scan statistics. Transactions in GIS 14, 3 (2010), 223--239.
[31]
Osgood, D. W. Poisson-based regression analysis of aggregate crime rates. Journal of quantitative criminology 16, 1 (2000), 21--43.
[32]
Patterson, E. B. Poverty, income inequality, and community crime rates. Criminology 29, 4 (1991), 755--776.
[33]
Ratcliffe, J. H. A temporal constraint theory to explain opportunity-based spatial offending patterns. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 43, 3 (2006), 261--291.
[34]
Sahbaz, O., and Hillier, B. The story of the crime: functional, temporal and spatial tendencies in street robbery. In Proc of 6th International Space Syntax Symposium, Istanbul (2007), pp. 4--14.
[35]
Sampson, R. J., Raudenbush, S. W., and Earls, F. Neighborhoods and violent crime: A multilevel study of collective efficacy. Science 277, 5328 (1997), 918--924.
[36]
Short, M. B., D'ORSOGNA, M. R., Pasour, V. B., Tita, G. E., Brantingham, P. J., Bertozzi, A. L., and Chayes, L. B. A statistical model of criminal behavior. Mathematical Models and Methods in Applied Sciences 18, supp01 (2008), 1249--1267.
[37]
Toole, J. L., Eagle, N., and Plotkin, J. B. Spatiotemporal correlations in criminal offense records. ACM Transactions on Intelligent Systems and Technology (TIST) 2, 4 (2011), 38.
[38]
Traunmueller, M., Quattrone, G., and Capra, L. Mining mobile phone data to investigate urban crime theories at scale. In Social Informatics. Springer, 2014, pp. 396--411.
[39]
Tribune, C. A tale of 3 cities: La and nyc outpace chicago in curbing violence, 2015.
[40]
Wang, T., Rudin, C., Wagner, D., and Sevieri, R. Learning to detect patterns of crime. In Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases. Springer, 2013.
[41]
Wang, X., Gerber, M. S., and Brown, D. E. Automatic crime prediction using events extracted from twitter posts. In Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction. Springer, 2012, pp. 231--238.
[42]
Wikipedia. Community areas in chicago -- wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, 2015.
[43]
Wolfe, M. K., and Mennis, J. Does vegetation encourage or suppress urban crime? evidence from philadelphia, pa. Landscape and Urban Planning 108, 2 (2012), 112--122.
[44]
Yuan, J., Zheng, Y., and Xie, X. Discovering regions of different functions in a city using human mobility and pois. In ACM SIGKDD (2012), ACM, pp. 186--194.
[45]
Zheng, Y., Capra, L., Wolfson, O., and Yang, H. Urban computing: concepts, methodologies, and applications. ACM TIST 5, 3 (2014), 38.

Cited By

View all
  • (2024)What Determines the Crime Rate? A Macroeconomic Case StudyEconomies10.3390/economies1209025012:9(250)Online publication date: 17-Sep-2024
  • (2024)Crime Stats: A Log of Different Crimes in IndiaSSRN Electronic Journal10.2139/ssrn.4493510Online publication date: 2024
  • (2024)HDM-GNN: A Heterogeneous Dynamic Multi-view Graph Neural Network for Crime PredictionACM Transactions on Sensor Networks10.1145/3665141Online publication date: 14-May-2024
  • Show More Cited By

Recommendations

Comments

Please enable JavaScript to view thecomments powered by Disqus.

Information & Contributors

Information

Published In

cover image ACM Conferences
KDD '16: Proceedings of the 22nd ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining
August 2016
2176 pages
ISBN:9781450342322
DOI:10.1145/2939672
Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than ACM must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected]

Sponsors

Publisher

Association for Computing Machinery

New York, NY, United States

Publication History

Published: 13 August 2016

Permissions

Request permissions for this article.

Check for updates

Author Tags

  1. big data
  2. crime inference
  3. heterogeneous data
  4. spatial-temporal data

Qualifiers

  • Research-article

Funding Sources

Conference

KDD '16
Sponsor:

Acceptance Rates

KDD '16 Paper Acceptance Rate 66 of 1,115 submissions, 6%;
Overall Acceptance Rate 1,133 of 8,635 submissions, 13%

Contributors

Other Metrics

Bibliometrics & Citations

Bibliometrics

Article Metrics

  • Downloads (Last 12 months)876
  • Downloads (Last 6 weeks)104
Reflects downloads up to 21 Nov 2024

Other Metrics

Citations

Cited By

View all
  • (2024)What Determines the Crime Rate? A Macroeconomic Case StudyEconomies10.3390/economies1209025012:9(250)Online publication date: 17-Sep-2024
  • (2024)Crime Stats: A Log of Different Crimes in IndiaSSRN Electronic Journal10.2139/ssrn.4493510Online publication date: 2024
  • (2024)HDM-GNN: A Heterogeneous Dynamic Multi-view Graph Neural Network for Crime PredictionACM Transactions on Sensor Networks10.1145/3665141Online publication date: 14-May-2024
  • (2024)A Novel Framework for Joint Learning of City Region Partition and RepresentationACM Transactions on Multimedia Computing, Communications, and Applications10.1145/365285720:7(1-23)Online publication date: 17-Mar-2024
  • (2024)Self-Explainable Next POI RecommendationProceedings of the 47th International ACM SIGIR Conference on Research and Development in Information Retrieval10.1145/3626772.3657967(2619-2623)Online publication date: 10-Jul-2024
  • (2024)Comfort-aware Lane Change Planning with Exit Strategy for Autonomous VehicleIEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering10.1109/TKDE.2023.3348550(1-14)Online publication date: 2024
  • (2024)Crime Prediction by Comparing Machine Learning and Deep Learning Algorithms2024 2nd International Conference on Disruptive Technologies (ICDT)10.1109/ICDT61202.2024.10489578(215-219)Online publication date: 15-Mar-2024
  • (2024)Improving crime count forecasts in the city of Rio de Janeiro via reconciliationSecurity Journal10.1057/s41284-024-00433-537:4(1597-1618)Online publication date: 9-Jun-2024
  • (2024)Comparing effectiveness of point of interest data and land use data in theft crime modelling: A case study in BeijingLand Use Policy10.1016/j.landusepol.2024.107357147(107357)Online publication date: Dec-2024
  • (2023)UUKGProceedings of the 37th International Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems10.5555/3666122.3668849(62442-62456)Online publication date: 10-Dec-2023
  • Show More Cited By

View Options

View options

PDF

View or Download as a PDF file.

PDF

eReader

View online with eReader.

eReader

Login options

Media

Figures

Other

Tables

Share

Share

Share this Publication link

Share on social media