research-article

Modeling three sources of uncertainty in assisted reproductive technologies with probabilistic graphical models

Authors:

Jerónimo Hernández-González,

Olga Valls,

Adrián Torres-Martín,

Jesús CerquidesAuthors Info & Claims

Volume 150, Issue C

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compbiomed.2022.106160

Published: 01 November 2022 Publication History

Abstract

Embryo selection is a critical step in assisted reproduction: good selection criteria are expected to increase the probability of inducing a pregnancy. Machine learning techniques have been applied for implantation prediction or embryo quality assessment, which embryologists can use to make a decision about embryo selection. However, this is a highly uncertain real-world problem, and current proposals do not model always all the sources of uncertainty.

We present a novel probabilistic graphical model that accounts for three different sources of uncertainty, the standard embryo and cycle viability, and a third one that represents any unknown factor that can drive a treatment to a failure in otherwise perfect conditions. We derive a parametric learning method based on the Expectation–Maximization strategy, which accounts for uncertainty issues.

We empirically analyze the model within a real database consisting of 604 cycles (3125 embryos) carried out at Hospital Donostia (Spain). Embryologists followed the protocol of the Spanish Association for Reproduction Biology Studies (ASEBIR), based on morphological features, for embryo selection. Our model predictions are correlated with the ASEBIR protocol, which validates our model. The benefits of accounting for the different sources of uncertainty and the importance of the cycle characteristics are shown. Considering only transferred embryos, our model does not further discriminate them as implanted or failed, suggesting that the ASEBIR protocol could be understood as a thorough summary of the available morphological features.

Highlights

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A Probabilistic Graphical Model for ARTs that considers three sources of uncertainty.

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A method for learning the model that uses all the available information of supervision.

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An extensive empirical study to validate the proposed model.

References

[1]

Ardoy M., Caderón G., Arroyo G., Cuadros J., Figueroa M.J., Herrer R., Moreno J.M., Ortiz Á., Prados F., Rodríguez L., Santaló J., de los Santos M.J., Ten J., Torelló M.J., ASEBIR criteria for the morphological evaluation of human oocytes, early embryos and blastocysts, in: Clinical Embryology Papers, II, second ed., Asociación para el Estudio de la Biología de la Reproducción (ASEBIR), Madrid, Spain, 2008, pp. 1–59.

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