research-article

Managing uncertainty in project portfolio cost estimation

Information and Software Technology, Volume 43, Issue 13

Pages 759 - 768

https://doi.org/10.1016/S0950-5849(01)00183-5

Published: 15 November 2001 Publication History

Abstract

Although typically a software development organisation is involved in more than one project simultaneously, the available tools in the area of software cost estimation deal mostly with single software projects. In order to calculate the possible cost of the entire project portfolio, one must combine the single project estimates taking into account the uncertainty involved. In this paper, statistical simulation techniques are used to calculate confidence intervals for the effort needed for a project portfolio. The overall approach is illustrated through the adaptation of the analogy-based method for software cost estimation to cover multiple projects.

References

[1]

A. Abran, P. Robillard, Function point analysis: an empirical study of its measurement processes, IEEE Trans. Software Engng 22 (1996) 895-909.

Digital Library

[2]

L. Angelis, I. Stamelos, A simulation tool for efficient analogy based cost estimation, Empir. Software Engng 5 (2000) 35-68.

[3]

B. Boehm, Software Engineering Economics, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1981.

[4]

B. Boehm, B. Clark, E. Horowitz, C. Westland, R. Madachy, R. Selby, Cost Models for Future Software Life Cycle Processes: COCOMO 2.0, in: J. Arthur, S. Henry (Eds.), Annals of Software Engineering 1, Special Volume on Software Process and Product Measurement, J.C. Baltzer AG, Science Publishers, Amsterdam, 1995, pp. 45-60.

[5]

L. Briand, K. El Emam, F. Bomarius, COBRA: a hybrid method for software cost estimation, benchmarking and risk assessment, Proceedings of 20th International Software Engineering Conference, IEEE Computer Society Press, Silver Spring, MD, 1998, pp. 390-399.

[6]

C. Colbourn, J. Dinitz (Eds.), The CRC Handbook of Combinatorial Designs CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL, 1996.

[7]

B. Efron, R. Tibshirani, An Introduction to the Bootstrap, Chapman & Hall, London, 1993.

[8]

M. Elkjaer, Stochastic budget simulation, Int. J. Proj. Mgmt 18 (2000) 139-147.

[9]

R. Fairley, Risk management for software projects, IEEE Software 11 (1994) 57-67.

Digital Library

[10]

R. Fewster, E. Mendes, Measurement, prediction and risk analysis for web applications, Proceedings of 7th International Software Metrics Symposium, IEEE Computer Society Press, Silver Spring, MD, 2001 pp. 338-348.

[11]

ISBSG 1999, Data Disk, Release 6, November 1999, http://www.isbs-g.org.au.

[12]

C. Kemerer, An empirical validation of software cost estimation models, Commun. ACM 30 (1987) 416-429.

Digital Library

[13]

B. Kitchenham, S. Linkman, Estimates, uncertainty and risk, IEEE Software 14 (1997) 69-74.

Digital Library

[14]

C. Laudon, J. Laudon, Management Information Systems, fifth ed, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1998.

[15]

S. Lichtenberg, New project management principles for the conception stage, J. Proj. Mgmt 7 (1989) 46-51.

[16]

M. Shepperd, C. Schofield, Estimating software project effort using analogies, IEEE Trans. Software Engng 23 (1997) 736-743.

Digital Library

[17]

B. Silverman, Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis, Chapman & Hall, London, 1986.

[18]

I. Stamelos, L. Angelis, E. Sakellaris, BRACE: bootstrap based analogy cost estimation, Proceedings 12th European Software Control Metrics 2001 pp. 17-23.

[19]

W. Venables, B. Ripley, Modern Applied Statistics with S-Plus, Springer, New York, 1994.

[20]

F. Walkerden, R. Jeffery, An empirical study of analogy-based software effort estimation, Empir Software Engng 4 (1999) 135-158.

Cited By

El Koutbi SIdri AAbran A(2019)Empirical evaluation of an entropy‐based approach to estimation variation of software development effortJournal of Software: Evolution and Process10.1002/smr.214931:3Online publication date: 25-Mar-2019
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1002/smr.2149
Dnmez DGrote G(2018)Two sides of the same coin how agile software development teams approach uncertainty as threats and opportunitiesInformation and Software Technology10.1016/j.infsof.2017.08.01593:C(94-111)Online publication date: 1-Jan-2018
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1016/j.infsof.2017.08.015
(2017)Research patterns and trends in software effort estimationInformation and Software Technology10.1016/j.infsof.2017.06.00291:C(1-21)Online publication date: 1-Nov-2017
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1016/j.infsof.2017.06.002
Show More Cited By

Index Terms

Managing uncertainty in project portfolio cost estimation
1. Applied computing
  1. Enterprise computing
2. Mathematics of computing
  1. Probability and statistics
    1. Probabilistic reasoning algorithms
      1. Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods

Index terms have been assigned to the content through auto-classification.

Recommendations

An approach for software cost estimation
CompSysTech '10: Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Computer Systems and Technologies and Workshop for PhD Students in Computing on International Conference on Computer Systems and Technologies

Considerable studies are now directed at developing and using software cost estimation methods and tools. This paper underlines the specificity of the software estimation process and the fact that no one method is the best for all type projects. The ...
Portfolio Selection with Robust Estimation

Mean-variance portfolios constructed using the sample mean and covariance matrix of asset returns perform poorly out of sample due to estimation error. Moreover, it is commonly accepted that estimation error in the sample mean is much larger than in the ...
Improved software cost estimation models: A new perspective based on evolution in Dynamic Environment
Special Section: Ambient advancements in intelligent computational sciences

Software cost estimation is the process of predicting the most realistic and valid amount of effort necessary for the development of any software. The cost estimation of any software is a difficult assignment due to the involvement of many factors that ...

Comments

Please enable JavaScript to view thecomments powered by Disqus.

Information & Contributors

Information

Published In

cover image Information and Software Technology

Information and Software Technology Volume 43, Issue 13

November 2001

65 pages

ISSN:0950-5849

Issue’s Table of Contents

Copyright © Elsevier Science B.V.

Publisher

Butterworth-Heinemann

United States

Publication History

Published: 15 November 2001

Qualifiers

Research-article

Contributors

Other Metrics

View Article Metrics

Bibliometrics & Citations

Bibliometrics

Article Metrics

9
Total Citations
View Citations
0
Total Downloads

Downloads (Last 12 months)0
Downloads (Last 6 weeks)0

Reflects downloads up to 03 Oct 2024

Other Metrics

View Author Metrics

Citations

Cited By

El Koutbi SIdri AAbran A(2019)Empirical evaluation of an entropy‐based approach to estimation variation of software development effortJournal of Software: Evolution and Process10.1002/smr.214931:3Online publication date: 25-Mar-2019
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1002/smr.2149
Dnmez DGrote G(2018)Two sides of the same coin how agile software development teams approach uncertainty as threats and opportunitiesInformation and Software Technology10.1016/j.infsof.2017.08.01593:C(94-111)Online publication date: 1-Jan-2018
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1016/j.infsof.2017.08.015
(2017)Research patterns and trends in software effort estimationInformation and Software Technology10.1016/j.infsof.2017.06.00291:C(1-21)Online publication date: 1-Nov-2017
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1016/j.infsof.2017.06.002
Sarro FPetrozziello AHarman MDillon LVisser WWilliams L(2016)Multi-objective software effort estimationProceedings of the 38th International Conference on Software Engineering10.1145/2884781.2884830(619-630)Online publication date: 14-May-2016
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/2884781.2884830
Shollo AConstantiou IKreiner K(2015)The interplay between evidence and judgment in the IT project prioritization processThe Journal of Strategic Information Systems10.1016/j.jsis.2015.06.00124:3(171-188)Online publication date: 1-Sep-2015
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1016/j.jsis.2015.06.001
Hansen LKræmmergard P(2014)Discourses and Theoretical Assumptions in IT Project Portfolio ManagementInternational Journal of Information Technology Project Management10.4018/ijitpm.20140701035:3(39-66)Online publication date: 1-Jul-2014
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.4018/ijitpm.2014070103
Laslo ZGurevich G(2013)A Simulation-Based Decision Support System for Managing Information Technology Project PortfoliosInternational Journal of Information Technology Project Management10.4018/jitpm.20130401014:2(1-17)Online publication date: 1-Apr-2013
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.4018/jitpm.2013040101
Bakır ATurhan BBener A(2011)A comparative study for estimating software development effort intervalsSoftware Quality Journal10.1007/s11219-010-9112-919:3(537-552)Online publication date: 1-Sep-2011
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1007/s11219-010-9112-9
Stamelos IAngelis LMorisio MSakellaris EBleris G(2003)Estimating the development cost of custom softwareInformation and Management10.1016/S0378-7206(02)00099-X40:8(729-741)Online publication date: 1-Sep-2003
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1016/S0378-7206%2802%2900099-X

View Options

View options

Get Access

Login options

Check if you have access through your login credentials or your institution to get full access on this article.

Full Access

Get this Publication

Media

Figures

Other

Tables

View Issue’s Table of Contents