article

Time Series Modelling and Forecasting of Emergency Department Overcrowding

Authors:

Sondès Chaabane,

Christian TahonAuthors Info & Claims

Journal of Medical Systems, Volume 38, Issue 9

Pages 1 - 20

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10916-014-0107-0

Published: 01 September 2014 Publication History

Abstract

Efficient management of patient flow (demand) in emergency departments (EDs) has become an urgent issue for many hospital administrations. Today, more and more attention is being paid to hospital management systems to optimally manage patient flow and to improve management strategies, efficiency and safety in such establishments. To this end, EDs require significant human and material resources, but unfortunately these are limited. Within such a framework, the ability to accurately forecast demand in emergency departments has considerable implications for hospitals to improve resource allocation and strategic planning. The aim of this study was to develop models for forecasting daily attendances at the hospital emergency department in Lille, France. The study demonstrates how time-series analysis can be used to forecast, at least in the short term, demand for emergency services in a hospital emergency department. The forecasts were based on daily patient attendances at the paediatric emergency department in Lille regional hospital centre, France, from January 2012 to December 2012. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method was applied separately to each of the two GEMSA categories and total patient attendances. Time-series analysis was shown to provide a useful, readily available tool for forecasting emergency department demand.

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Cited By

Prabhu VTaaffe KPirrallo RJackson WRamsay MHobbs J(2023)Forecasting Patient Arrivals and Optimizing Physician Shift Scheduling in Emergency DepartmentsProceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference10.5555/3643142.3643236(1136-1147)Online publication date: 10-Dec-2023
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/3643142.3643236
Shou TYe ZHong YWang ZZhu HJiang ZYang DZhou BWang CChen L(2023)CrowdQProceedings of the ACM on Interactive, Mobile, Wearable and Ubiquitous Technologies10.1145/36108757:3(1-28)Online publication date: 27-Sep-2023
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cover image Journal of Medical Systems

Journal of Medical Systems Volume 38, Issue 9

September 2014

309 pages

ISSN:0148-5598

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Copyright © Copyright © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

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Plenum Press

United States

Publication History

Published: 01 September 2014

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Prabhu VTaaffe KPirrallo RJackson WRamsay MHobbs J(2023)Forecasting Patient Arrivals and Optimizing Physician Shift Scheduling in Emergency DepartmentsProceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference10.5555/3643142.3643236(1136-1147)Online publication date: 10-Dec-2023
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/3643142.3643236
Shou TYe ZHong YWang ZZhu HJiang ZYang DZhou BWang CChen L(2023)CrowdQProceedings of the ACM on Interactive, Mobile, Wearable and Ubiquitous Technologies10.1145/36108757:3(1-28)Online publication date: 27-Sep-2023
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3610875
Miranda-Garcia CGarces-Jimenez AGomez-Pulido JHernández-Martínez H(2023)Improved Long-Term Forecasting of Emergency Department Arrivals with LSTM-Based NetworksBioinformatics and Biomedical Engineering10.1007/978-3-031-34960-7_9(124-133)Online publication date: 12-Jul-2023
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1007/978-3-031-34960-7_9
Rocha CRodrigues F(2021)Forecasting emergency department admissionsIntelligent Data Analysis10.3233/IDA-20539025:6(1579-1601)Online publication date: 1-Jan-2021
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Klute BHomb AChen WStelpflug A(2019)Predicting Outpatient Appointment Demand Using Machine Learning and Traditional MethodsJournal of Medical Systems10.1007/s10916-019-1418-y43:9(1-10)Online publication date: 1-Sep-2019
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Wutthisirisart PMartinez GHeaton HPasupathy KThompson MSir M(2018)Maximizing Patient Coverage Through Optimal Allocation of Residents and Scribes to Shifts in an Emergency DepartmentJournal of Medical Systems10.1007/s10916-018-1080-942:11(1-9)Online publication date: 1-Nov-2018
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Kadri FHarrou FChaabane SSun YTahon C(2016)Seasonal ARMA-based SPC charts for anomaly detectionNeurocomputing10.1016/j.neucom.2015.10.009173:P3(2102-2114)Online publication date: 15-Jan-2016
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Ben Othman SZgaya HHammadi SQuilliot AMartinot ARenard J(2016)Agents endowed with uncertainty management behaviors to solve a multiskill healthcare task schedulingJournal of Biomedical Informatics10.1016/j.jbi.2016.08.01164:C(25-43)Online publication date: 1-Dec-2016
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Afilal MYalaoui FDugardin FAmodeo LLaplanche DBlua P(2016)Forecasting the Emergency Department Patients FlowJournal of Medical Systems10.1007/s10916-016-0527-040:7(1-18)Online publication date: 1-Jul-2016
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