Cyclone Classification over the South Atlantic Ocean in Centenary Reanalysis
<p>Tracking domain (black large box) and areas used in the study: entire South Atlantic Ocean (green box) and main cyclogenetic regions of eastern South America coast (SEB: Southeast/South Brazil, URU: Uruguay and extreme south Brazil, and ARG: Argentina).</p> "> Figure 2
<p>(<b>a</b>) CPS thresholds used for the cyclone’s classification following the criteria: C01 [<a href="#B39-atmosphere-15-01533" class="html-bibr">39</a>], C02 [<a href="#B11-atmosphere-15-01533" class="html-bibr">11</a>], and C03 [<a href="#B34-atmosphere-15-01533" class="html-bibr">34</a>]; (<b>b</b>) CPS quadrants delimiting the cyclone phase, B versus <math display="inline"><semantics> <mrow> <mo>−</mo> <mrow> <mo>|</mo> <mrow> <msubsup> <mi>V</mi> <mi>T</mi> <mi>L</mi> </msubsup> </mrow> <mo>|</mo> </mrow> </mrow> </semantics></math> (<b>left</b>) and <math display="inline"><semantics> <mrow> <mo>−</mo> <mrow> <mo>|</mo> <mrow> <msubsup> <mi>V</mi> <mi>T</mi> <mi>L</mi> </msubsup> </mrow> <mo>|</mo> </mrow> </mrow> </semantics></math> versus <math display="inline"><semantics> <mrow> <mo>−</mo> <mrow> <mo>|</mo> <mrow> <msubsup> <mi>V</mi> <mi>T</mi> <mi>U</mi> </msubsup> </mrow> <mo>|</mo> </mrow> </mrow> </semantics></math> (<b>right</b>) to C01, C02 e C03 criteria.</p> "> Figure 3
<p>Mean annual density of cyclogenesis for the common period 1979–2010: (<b>a</b>) ERA20C and (<b>b</b>) ERA5. Density unit: number of cyclones by area (km<sup>2</sup>) ×10<sup>5</sup> per year.</p> "> Figure 4
<p>Mean annual density of cyclone’s trajectory with genesis in the subdomains for the common period 1979–2010 for: (<b>a</b>,<b>d</b>) SEB, (<b>b</b>,<b>e</b>) URU, and (<b>c</b>,<b>f</b>) ARG for ERA20C (<b>left column</b>) and ERA5 (<b>right column</b>). Density unit: number of cyclones by area (km<sup>2</sup>) ×10<sup>5</sup> per year.</p> "> Figure 5
<p>Cyclogenesis annual cycle (events/month) in ERA20C (red line) and ERA5 (blue line) in the common period (1979–2010) for: (<b>a</b>) SEB, (<b>b</b>) URU, (<b>c</b>) ARG, and (<b>d</b>) the South Atlantic (green box in <a href="#atmosphere-15-01533-f001" class="html-fig">Figure 1</a>). The numbers on the right bottom side of the panels indicate annual mean and standard deviation, while the right side boxes present the seasonal mean for ERA20C (red) and ERA5 (blue).</p> "> Figure 6
<p>Histograms of the relative vorticity (×10<sup>−5</sup> s<sup>−1</sup>) at cyclogenesis for the common period (1979–2010) for ERA20C (red) and ERA5 (blue) in subdomains: (<b>a</b>) SEB, (<b>b</b>) URU, (<b>c</b>) ARG, and (<b>d</b>) South Atlantic (green box in <a href="#atmosphere-15-01533-f001" class="html-fig">Figure 1</a>).</p> "> Figure 7
<p>Time series of the annual frequency of cyclogenesis (events year-1) in ERA5 (1979–2010; blue) and ERA20C (1900–2010; red) in subdomains: (<b>a</b>) SEB, (<b>b</b>) URU, (<b>c</b>) ARG, and (<b>d</b>) Atlantic (green box in <a href="#atmosphere-15-01533-f001" class="html-fig">Figure 1</a>); r is the Pearson correlation calculated between ERA20C and ERA5 for the period 1979–2010.</p> "> Figure 8
<p>Distribution of CPS parameters for each 6-h time step across the cyclone’s lifecycle for South Atlantic: The left column shows B vs. <math display="inline"><semantics> <mrow> <mo>−</mo> <mrow> <mo>|</mo> <mrow> <msubsup> <mi>V</mi> <mi>T</mi> <mi>L</mi> </msubsup> </mrow> <mo>|</mo> </mrow> </mrow> </semantics></math> diagrams and the right column <math display="inline"><semantics> <mrow> <mo>−</mo> <mrow> <mo>|</mo> <mrow> <msubsup> <mi>V</mi> <mi>T</mi> <mi>U</mi> </msubsup> </mrow> <mo>|</mo> </mrow> </mrow> </semantics></math> vs. <math display="inline"><semantics> <mrow> <mo>−</mo> <mrow> <mo>|</mo> <mrow> <msubsup> <mi>V</mi> <mi>T</mi> <mi>L</mi> </msubsup> </mrow> <mo>|</mo> </mrow> </mrow> </semantics></math> diagrams. (<b>a</b>,<b>b</b>) ERA20C (1900–2010), (<b>c</b>,<b>d</b>) ERA20C (1979–2010), and (<b>e</b>,<b>f</b>) ERA5 (1979–2010). Dotted lines indicate significant values based in C01, C02 and C03 thresholds: <math display="inline"><semantics> <mrow> <mi>B</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mn>10</mn> </mrow> </semantics></math>, <math display="inline"><semantics> <mrow> <mo>−</mo> <mrow> <mo>|</mo> <mrow> <msubsup> <mi>V</mi> <mi>T</mi> <mi>L</mi> </msubsup> </mrow> <mo>|</mo> </mrow> </mrow> </semantics></math> and <math display="inline"><semantics> <mrow> <mo>−</mo> <mrow> <mo>|</mo> <mrow> <msubsup> <mi>V</mi> <mi>T</mi> <mi>U</mi> </msubsup> </mrow> <mo>|</mo> </mrow> <mo>=</mo> <mn>0</mn> </mrow> </semantics></math>. I–IV refers to the quadrant order, from first to fourth.</p> "> Figure 9
<p>Similar to <a href="#atmosphere-15-01533-f008" class="html-fig">Figure 8</a>, but only for the cyclogenesis time step.</p> "> Figure 10
<p>Annual cycle of the cyclogenesis types over the South Atlantic (extratropical in blue, subtropical in orange, tropical in red, and others in grey) for the long (ERA20C from 1900 to 2010) and common period (1979–2010) of ERA20C and ERA5. The types were separated with the thresholds: C01 (<b>left panel</b>) and C02–C03 (<b>right panel</b>).</p> "> Figure 11
<p>(<b>a</b>) Spatial distribution of all types of cyclogenesis (extratropical in blue, subtropical in orange, tropical in red, and others in grey) and separated for (<b>b</b>) subtropical and (<b>c</b>) tropical (<b>right panel</b>) cyclogenesis. The cyclogenesis types were classified considering the criteria C01, C02, and C03.</p> "> Figure 12
<p>Annual frequency of the time steps with extratropical (<b>a</b>,<b>b</b>), subtropical (<b>c</b>,<b>d</b>), and tropical (<b>e</b>,<b>f</b>) phases (<b>left panel</b>) and the same just for cyclogenesis (<b>right panel</b>) in the South Atlantic for ERA20C (red) and ERA5 (blue). “R” is the slope of the trend lines: ERA20C (1900–2010) is represented in red, ERA20C (1979–2010) in green, and ERA5 (1979–2010) in blue. “MK” is the Mann-Kendall test at a 95% confidence level, and the colours green and red indicate, respectively, statistically significant and non-significant trends.</p> "> Figure 13
<p>CPS for Hurricane Catarina over the South Atlantic Ocean in March 2004: for (<b>a</b>,<b>b</b>) ERA20C (<b>left panel</b>) and (<b>d</b>,<b>e</b>) ERA5 (<b>right panel</b>); (<b>c</b>,<b>f</b>) depict the hurricane tracking, with the colors indicating the phases of the system: extratropical in blue, subtropical in orange, tropical in red and “other” in gray. In these same panels “SC” and “RS” indicate, respectively, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul states, where Hurricane Catarina had landfall.</p> "> Figure 14
<p>Hurricane Catarina: atmospheric fields for ERA20C (upper panels) and ERA5 (lower panels): (<b>a</b>–<b>d</b>) mean sea level pressure (hPa—black contour), zonal wind at 200 hPa (m s<sup>−1</sup>; shaded), and Catarina position limited by black square, and (<b>e</b>–<b>h</b>) vertical cross sections of cyclonic relative vorticity (×10<sup>−5</sup> s<sup>−1</sup>; shaded) considering the central latitude of Catarina.</p> ">
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methodology
2.1. Study Area and Data
2.2. Cyclone Tracking
2.3. Cyclone Phase Space (CPS)
2.4. Criteria Used to Classify Cyclones
2.5. Analyses
3. Results and Discussions
3.1. Validation Period: 1979–2010
3.1.1. Climatology, Including All Cyclone Types
3.1.2. Trends and Interannual Variability
3.2. Cyclone’s Classification
3.2.1. Dispersion Analysis of the CPS Parameters
3.2.2. Separating the Cyclone’s Types
3.3. Hurricane Catarina
4. Conclusions
- Validation Period: 1979–2010
- Long Period Analysis: 1900–2010
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Periods | SEB | URU | ARG | South Atlantic |
---|---|---|---|---|
ERA20C 1900–2010 | 0.040 (0.006) | 0.064 (0.012) | −0.177 (0.000) | −0.291 (0.000) |
ERA20C 1979–2010 | 0.096 (0.414) | −0.089 (0.820) | −0.249 (0.162) | −0.470 (0.314) |
ERA5 1979–2010 | −0.015 (1.000) | 0.103 (0.782) | 0.005 (0.871) | −0.075 (0.314) |
ERA20C (1900–2010) | ERA20C (1979–2010) | ERA5 (1979–2010) | |
---|---|---|---|
Extratropical C01, C02, C03 | 336,571 (71.4%) 32,990 (74.6%) | 91,960 (69.8%) 9084 (72.5%) | 95,042 (70.4%) 9423 (75.5%) |
Subtropical C01 | 29,712 (6.3%) 1612 (3.6%) | 9226 (7.0%) 484 (3.8%) | 8225 (6.1%) 484 (3.9%) |
Subtropical C02, C03 | 35,052 (7.4%) 1694 (3.8%) | 11,069 (8.4%) 538 (4.3%) | 10,608 (7.9%) 465 (3.8%) |
Tropical C01 | 1838 (0.4%) 96 (0.2%) | 511 (0.4%) 33 (0.3%) | 733 (0.6%) 30 (0.2%) |
Tropical C02, C03 | 6553 (1.4%) 393 (0.9%) | 1789 (1.3%) 111 (0.9%) | 2173 (1.6%) 128 (1.0%) |
Others C01 | 103,018 (21.9%) 9516 (21.5%) | 30,135 (22.8%) 2933 (23.4%) | 31,035 (22.9%) 2538 (20.4%) |
Others C02, C03 | 92,963 (19.8%) 9137 (20.7%) | 27,014 (20.5%) 2801 (22.3%) | 27,212 (20.1%) 2459 (19.7%) |
Total Events | 471,139 44,214 | 131,832 12,534 | 135,035 12,475 |
Ratio of cyclogenesis to total time steps (%) | 9.4 | 9.5 | 9.2 |
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Conrado, E.T.d.C.; da Rocha, R.P.; Reboita, M.S.; Cardoso, A.A. Cyclone Classification over the South Atlantic Ocean in Centenary Reanalysis. Atmosphere 2024, 15, 1533. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15121533
Conrado ETdC, da Rocha RP, Reboita MS, Cardoso AA. Cyclone Classification over the South Atlantic Ocean in Centenary Reanalysis. Atmosphere. 2024; 15(12):1533. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15121533
Chicago/Turabian StyleConrado, Eduardo Traversi de Cai, Rosmeri Porfírio da Rocha, Michelle Simões Reboita, and Andressa Andrade Cardoso. 2024. "Cyclone Classification over the South Atlantic Ocean in Centenary Reanalysis" Atmosphere 15, no. 12: 1533. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15121533
APA StyleConrado, E. T. d. C., da Rocha, R. P., Reboita, M. S., & Cardoso, A. A. (2024). Cyclone Classification over the South Atlantic Ocean in Centenary Reanalysis. Atmosphere, 15(12), 1533. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15121533