Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]

You seem to have javascript disabled. Please note that many of the page functionalities won't work as expected without javascript enabled.
 
 
Sign in to use this feature.

Years

Between: -

Subjects

remove_circle_outline
remove_circle_outline

Journals

Article Types

Countries / Regions

Search Results (1)

Search Parameters:
Keywords = centenary reanalysis

Order results
Result details
Results per page
Select all
Export citation of selected articles as:
24 pages, 7431 KiB  
Article
Cyclone Classification over the South Atlantic Ocean in Centenary Reanalysis
by Eduardo Traversi de Cai Conrado, Rosmeri Porfírio da Rocha, Michelle Simões Reboita and Andressa Andrade Cardoso
Atmosphere 2024, 15(12), 1533; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15121533 - 21 Dec 2024
Viewed by 597
Abstract
Since the beginning of the satellite era, only three tropical cyclones have been recorded over the South Atlantic Ocean. To investigate the potential occurrence of such systems since the 1900s, ERA20C, a centennial reanalysis, was utilised. This study first evaluates the performance of [...] Read more.
Since the beginning of the satellite era, only three tropical cyclones have been recorded over the South Atlantic Ocean. To investigate the potential occurrence of such systems since the 1900s, ERA20C, a centennial reanalysis, was utilised. This study first evaluates the performance of ERA20C in reproducing the climatology of all cyclone types over the southwestern South Atlantic Ocean by comparing it with a modern reanalysis (ERA5) for the period 1979–2010. Despite its simpler construction, ERA20C is able to reproduce key climatological features, such as frequency, location, seasonality, intensity, and thermal structure of cyclones similar to ERA5. Then, the Cyclone Phase Space (CPS) methodology was applied to determine the thermal structure at each time step for every cyclone between 1900 and 2010 in ERA20C. The cyclones were then categorised into different types (extratropical, subtropical, and tropical), and systems exhibiting a warm core at their initial time step were classified as tropical cyclogenesis. Between 1900 and 2010, 96 cases of tropical cyclogenesis were identified over the South Atlantic. Additionally, throughout the lifetime of all cyclones, a total of 1838 time steps exhibited a tropical structure, indicating that cyclones can acquire a warm core at different stages of their lifecycle. The coasts of southeastern and southern sectors of northeast Brazil emerged as the most favourable for cyclones with tropical structures during their lifecycle. The findings of this study highlight the occurrence of tropical cyclones in the South Atlantic prior to the satellite era, providing a foundation for future research into the physical mechanisms that enabled these events. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Cyclones: Types and Phase Transitions)
Show Figures

Figure 1

Figure 1
<p>Tracking domain (black large box) and areas used in the study: entire South Atlantic Ocean (green box) and main cyclogenetic regions of eastern South America coast (SEB: Southeast/South Brazil, URU: Uruguay and extreme south Brazil, and ARG: Argentina).</p>
Full article ">Figure 2
<p>(<b>a</b>) CPS thresholds used for the cyclone’s classification following the criteria: C01 [<a href="#B39-atmosphere-15-01533" class="html-bibr">39</a>], C02 [<a href="#B11-atmosphere-15-01533" class="html-bibr">11</a>], and C03 [<a href="#B34-atmosphere-15-01533" class="html-bibr">34</a>]; (<b>b</b>) CPS quadrants delimiting the cyclone phase, B versus <math display="inline"><semantics> <mrow> <mo>−</mo> <mrow> <mo>|</mo> <mrow> <msubsup> <mi>V</mi> <mi>T</mi> <mi>L</mi> </msubsup> </mrow> <mo>|</mo> </mrow> </mrow> </semantics></math> (<b>left</b>) and <math display="inline"><semantics> <mrow> <mo>−</mo> <mrow> <mo>|</mo> <mrow> <msubsup> <mi>V</mi> <mi>T</mi> <mi>L</mi> </msubsup> </mrow> <mo>|</mo> </mrow> </mrow> </semantics></math> versus <math display="inline"><semantics> <mrow> <mo>−</mo> <mrow> <mo>|</mo> <mrow> <msubsup> <mi>V</mi> <mi>T</mi> <mi>U</mi> </msubsup> </mrow> <mo>|</mo> </mrow> </mrow> </semantics></math> (<b>right</b>) to C01, C02 e C03 criteria.</p>
Full article ">Figure 3
<p>Mean annual density of cyclogenesis for the common period 1979–2010: (<b>a</b>) ERA20C and (<b>b</b>) ERA5. Density unit: number of cyclones by area (km<sup>2</sup>) ×10<sup>5</sup> per year.</p>
Full article ">Figure 4
<p>Mean annual density of cyclone’s trajectory with genesis in the subdomains for the common period 1979–2010 for: (<b>a</b>,<b>d</b>) SEB, (<b>b</b>,<b>e</b>) URU, and (<b>c</b>,<b>f</b>) ARG for ERA20C (<b>left column</b>) and ERA5 (<b>right column</b>). Density unit: number of cyclones by area (km<sup>2</sup>) ×10<sup>5</sup> per year.</p>
Full article ">Figure 5
<p>Cyclogenesis annual cycle (events/month) in ERA20C (red line) and ERA5 (blue line) in the common period (1979–2010) for: (<b>a</b>) SEB, (<b>b</b>) URU, (<b>c</b>) ARG, and (<b>d</b>) the South Atlantic (green box in <a href="#atmosphere-15-01533-f001" class="html-fig">Figure 1</a>). The numbers on the right bottom side of the panels indicate annual mean and standard deviation, while the right side boxes present the seasonal mean for ERA20C (red) and ERA5 (blue).</p>
Full article ">Figure 6
<p>Histograms of the relative vorticity (×10<sup>−5</sup> s<sup>−1</sup>) at cyclogenesis for the common period (1979–2010) for ERA20C (red) and ERA5 (blue) in subdomains: (<b>a</b>) SEB, (<b>b</b>) URU, (<b>c</b>) ARG, and (<b>d</b>) South Atlantic (green box in <a href="#atmosphere-15-01533-f001" class="html-fig">Figure 1</a>).</p>
Full article ">Figure 7
<p>Time series of the annual frequency of cyclogenesis (events year-1) in ERA5 (1979–2010; blue) and ERA20C (1900–2010; red) in subdomains: (<b>a</b>) SEB, (<b>b</b>) URU, (<b>c</b>) ARG, and (<b>d</b>) Atlantic (green box in <a href="#atmosphere-15-01533-f001" class="html-fig">Figure 1</a>); r is the Pearson correlation calculated between ERA20C and ERA5 for the period 1979–2010.</p>
Full article ">Figure 8
<p>Distribution of CPS parameters for each 6-h time step across the cyclone’s lifecycle for South Atlantic: The left column shows B vs. <math display="inline"><semantics> <mrow> <mo>−</mo> <mrow> <mo>|</mo> <mrow> <msubsup> <mi>V</mi> <mi>T</mi> <mi>L</mi> </msubsup> </mrow> <mo>|</mo> </mrow> </mrow> </semantics></math> diagrams and the right column <math display="inline"><semantics> <mrow> <mo>−</mo> <mrow> <mo>|</mo> <mrow> <msubsup> <mi>V</mi> <mi>T</mi> <mi>U</mi> </msubsup> </mrow> <mo>|</mo> </mrow> </mrow> </semantics></math> vs. <math display="inline"><semantics> <mrow> <mo>−</mo> <mrow> <mo>|</mo> <mrow> <msubsup> <mi>V</mi> <mi>T</mi> <mi>L</mi> </msubsup> </mrow> <mo>|</mo> </mrow> </mrow> </semantics></math> diagrams. (<b>a</b>,<b>b</b>) ERA20C (1900–2010), (<b>c</b>,<b>d</b>) ERA20C (1979–2010), and (<b>e</b>,<b>f</b>) ERA5 (1979–2010). Dotted lines indicate significant values based in C01, C02 and C03 thresholds: <math display="inline"><semantics> <mrow> <mi>B</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mn>10</mn> </mrow> </semantics></math>, <math display="inline"><semantics> <mrow> <mo>−</mo> <mrow> <mo>|</mo> <mrow> <msubsup> <mi>V</mi> <mi>T</mi> <mi>L</mi> </msubsup> </mrow> <mo>|</mo> </mrow> </mrow> </semantics></math> and <math display="inline"><semantics> <mrow> <mo>−</mo> <mrow> <mo>|</mo> <mrow> <msubsup> <mi>V</mi> <mi>T</mi> <mi>U</mi> </msubsup> </mrow> <mo>|</mo> </mrow> <mo>=</mo> <mn>0</mn> </mrow> </semantics></math>. I–IV refers to the quadrant order, from first to fourth.</p>
Full article ">Figure 9
<p>Similar to <a href="#atmosphere-15-01533-f008" class="html-fig">Figure 8</a>, but only for the cyclogenesis time step.</p>
Full article ">Figure 10
<p>Annual cycle of the cyclogenesis types over the South Atlantic (extratropical in blue, subtropical in orange, tropical in red, and others in grey) for the long (ERA20C from 1900 to 2010) and common period (1979–2010) of ERA20C and ERA5. The types were separated with the thresholds: C01 (<b>left panel</b>) and C02–C03 (<b>right panel</b>).</p>
Full article ">Figure 11
<p>(<b>a</b>) Spatial distribution of all types of cyclogenesis (extratropical in blue, subtropical in orange, tropical in red, and others in grey) and separated for (<b>b</b>) subtropical and (<b>c</b>) tropical (<b>right panel</b>) cyclogenesis. The cyclogenesis types were classified considering the criteria C01, C02, and C03.</p>
Full article ">Figure 12
<p>Annual frequency of the time steps with extratropical (<b>a</b>,<b>b</b>), subtropical (<b>c</b>,<b>d</b>), and tropical (<b>e</b>,<b>f</b>) phases (<b>left panel</b>) and the same just for cyclogenesis (<b>right panel</b>) in the South Atlantic for ERA20C (red) and ERA5 (blue). “R” is the slope of the trend lines: ERA20C (1900–2010) is represented in red, ERA20C (1979–2010) in green, and ERA5 (1979–2010) in blue. “MK” is the Mann-Kendall test at a 95% confidence level, and the colours green and red indicate, respectively, statistically significant and non-significant trends.</p>
Full article ">Figure 13
<p>CPS for Hurricane Catarina over the South Atlantic Ocean in March 2004: for (<b>a</b>,<b>b</b>) ERA20C (<b>left panel</b>) and (<b>d</b>,<b>e</b>) ERA5 (<b>right panel</b>); (<b>c</b>,<b>f</b>) depict the hurricane tracking, with the colors indicating the phases of the system: extratropical in blue, subtropical in orange, tropical in red and “other” in gray. In these same panels “SC” and “RS” indicate, respectively, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul states, where Hurricane Catarina had landfall.</p>
Full article ">Figure 14
<p>Hurricane Catarina: atmospheric fields for ERA20C (upper panels) and ERA5 (lower panels): (<b>a</b>–<b>d</b>) mean sea level pressure (hPa—black contour), zonal wind at 200 hPa (m s<sup>−1</sup>; shaded), and Catarina position limited by black square, and (<b>e</b>–<b>h</b>) vertical cross sections of cyclonic relative vorticity (×10<sup>−5</sup> s<sup>−1</sup>; shaded) considering the central latitude of Catarina.</p>
Full article ">
Back to TopTop