research-article

A Simulation Tool for Cascading Effects in Interdependent Critical Infrastructures

Authors:

Thomas Grafenauer,

Stefan SchauerAuthors Info & Claims

ARES '18: Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Availability, Reliability and Security

Article No.: 30, Pages 1 - 8

https://doi.org/10.1145/3230833.3240507

Published: 27 August 2018 Publication History

Abstract

Critical infrastructures are a core part in modern society, supplying essential goods and services for our everyday life. Therefore, any incident compromising the operation of a critical infrastructure can directly affect the social life. Moreover, due to the increasing interconnections between critical infrastructures, any incident can have cascading effects on other infrastructures as well. In this article, we present a novel simulation framework which allows to model the interdependencies and thus also the cascading effects among critical infrastructures. This framework builds upon stochastic processes describing, on the one hand, the relations between the critical infrastructures and, on the other hand, the random and sometimes arbitrary propagation of the consequences. This existing framework is extended and implemented in OMNeT++, which allows an easy and swift implementation of the mathematical algorithms and also provides a built-in visualization of the propagation of consequences within the critical infrastructure network. The goal is to support risk and security officers within the critical infrastructure in their decisions.

References

[1]

Victor A. Bañuls and Murray Turoff. 2011. Scenario construction via Delphi and cross-impact analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 78, 9 (2011), 1579--1602.

[2]

Raphael Caire, Jose Sánchez, and Nouredine Hadjsaid. 2013. Vulnerability analysis of coupled heterogeneous critical infrastructures: A Co-simulation approach with a testbed validation. In IEEE PES ISGT Europe 2013. 1--5.

[3]

Benjamin A. Carreras, David E. Newman, Paul Gradney, Vickie E. Lynch, and Ian Dobson. 2007. Interdependent Risk in Interacting Infrastructure Systems. In 40th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, 2007. HICSS 2007. Hawaii, USA, 112--112.

Digital Library

[4]

Jamie Condliffe. 2016. Ukraine's Power Grid Gets Hacked Again, a Worrying Sign for Infrastructure Attacks. (2016). https://www.technologyreview.com/s/603262/ukraines-power-grid-gets-hacked-again-a-worrying-sign-for-infrastructure-attacks/

[5]

E-ISAC. 2016. Analysis of the Cyber Attack on the Ukrainian Power Grid. Technical Report. Washington, USA. https://ics.sans.org/media/E-ISAC_SANS_Ukraine_DUC_5.pdf

[6]

European Commission. 2008. COUNCIL DIRECTIVE 2008/114/EC of 8 December 2008 on the identification and designation of European critical infrastructures and the assessment of the need to improve their protection. Official Journal of the European Union L345 (2008), 75--82. http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32008L0114&from=EN

[7]

Mario Faschang, Friedrich Kupzog, Ralf Mosshammer, and Alfred Einfalt. 2013. Rapid control prototyping platform for networked smart grid systems. In Proceedings IECON 2013 - 39th Annual Conference of the IEEE Industrial Electronics Society. IEEE, Vienna, Austria, 8172--8176.

[8]

Mislav Findrik, Paul Smith, Jawad Haider Kazmi, Mario Faschang, and Friedrich Kupzog. 2016. Towards secure and resilient networked power distribution grids: Process and tool adoption. In Smart Grid Communications (SmartGridComm), 2016 IEEE International Conference on. IEEE Publishing, Sidney, Australia, 435--440.

[9]

G. Gonzalez-Granadillo, S. Dubus, A. Motzek, J. Garcia-Alfaro, E. Alvarez, M. Merialdo, S. Papillon, and H. Debar. 2018. Dynamic risk management response system to handle cyber threats. Future Generation Computer Systems 83 (2018), 535--552.

Digital Library

[10]

Theodore J. Gordon and H. Hayward. 1968. Initial experiments with the cross impact matrix method of forecasting. Futures 1, 2 (1968), 100--116.

[11]

Yacov Haimes, Joost Santos, Kenneth Crowther, Matthew Henry, Chenyang Lian, and Zhenyu Yan. 2007. Risk Analysis in Interdependent Infrastructures. In Critical Infrastructure Protection, Eric Goetz and Sujeet Shenoi (Eds.). Vol. 253. Springer US, Boston, MA, 297--310.

[12]

Yacov Y. Haimes. 1981. Hierarchical Holographic Modeling. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics 11, 9 (1981), 606--617.

[13]

Yacov Y. Haimes and Jiang Pu. 2001. Leontief-Based Model of Risk in Complex Interconnected Infrastructures. Journal of Infrastructure Systems 7, 1 (2001), 1--12.

[14]

Robert Jaromin, Barry Mullins, Jonathan Butts, and Juan Lopez. 2013. Design and Implementation of Industrial Control System Emulators. In Critical Infrastructure Protection VII (IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology). Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 35--46.

[15]

Sandra König and Stefan Rass. 2017. Stochastic Dependencies Between Critical Infrastructures. Rome, Italy, 106--110. http://www.thinkmind.org/download.php?articleid=securware_2017_6_30_38023

[16]

Alexander Kott, Jackson Ludwig, and Mona Lange. 2017. Assessing Mission Impact of Cyberattacks: Toward a Model-Driven Paradigm. IEEE Security & Privacy 15, 5 (2017), 65--74.

Digital Library

[17]

Hua Lin, Santhoshkumar Sambamoorthy, Sandeep Shukla, James Thorp, and Lamine Mili. 2011. Power system and communication network co-simulation for smart grid applications. In ISGT 2011. 1--6.

[18]

Alexander Motzek, Gustavo Gonzalez-Granadillo, Hervé Debar, Joaquin Garcia-Alfaro, and Ralf Möller. 2017. Selection of Pareto-efficient response plans based on financial and operational assessments. EURASIP Journal on Information Security 2017, 1 (2017), 1.

[19]

Helen Pidd. 2012. India blackouts leave 700 million without power. (2012). https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/jul/31/india-blackout-electricity-power-cuts

[20]

Mahshid Rahnamay-Naeini and Majeed M. Hayat. 2016. Cascading Failures in Interdependent Infrastructures: An Interdependent Markov-Chain Approach. IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid 7, 4 (2016), 1997--2006.

[21]

Mahshid Rahnamay-Naeini, Zhuoyao Wang, Nasir Ghani, Andrea Mammoli, and Majeed M. Hayat. 2014. Stochastic Analysis of Cascading-Failure Dynamics in Power Grids. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 29, 4 (2014), 1767--1779.

[22]

Steven M. Rinaldi. 2004. Modeling and simulating critical infrastructures and their interdependencies. In 37th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, 2004. Proceedings of the.

Digital Library

[23]

Steven M. Rinaldi, James P. Peerenboom, and Terrence K. Kelly. 2001. Identifying, understanding, and analyzing critical infrastructure interdependencies. IEEE Control Systems 21, 6 (2001), 11--25.

[24]

Joost R. Santos and Yacov Y. Haimes. 2004. Modeling the demand reduction input-output (I-O) inoperability due to terrorism of interconnected infrastructures. Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis 24, 6 (2004), 1437--1451.

[25]

Thomas Schaberreiter, Sébastien Varrette, Pascal Bouvry, Juha Röning, and Djamel Khadraoui. 2013. Dependency Analysis for Critical Infrastructure Security Modelling: A Case Study within the Grid'5000 Project. In Security Engineering and Intelligence Informatics, David Hutchison, Takeo Kanade, Josef Kittler, Jon M. Kleinberg, Friedemann Mattern, John C. Mitchell, Moni Naor, Oscar Nierstrasz, C. Pandu Rangan, Bernhard Steffen, Madhu Sudan, Demetri Terzopoulos, Doug Tygar, Moshe Y. Vardi, Gerhard Weikum, Alfredo Cuzzocrea, Christian Kittl, Dimitris E. Simos, Edgar Weippl, and Lida Xu (Eds.). Vol. 8128. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin, Heidelberg, 269--287.

[26]

Michael Schmidthaler and Johannes Reichl. 2014. Economic Valuation of Electricity Supply Security: Ad-hoc Cost Assessment Tool for Power Outages. ELECTRA 276 (2014), 10--15.

[27]

Roberto Setola and Stefano De Porcellinis. 2009. Critical Infrastructure Dependency Assessment Using the Input-Output Inoperability Model. IJCIP 2 (2009), 170--178.

[28]

Roberto Setola, Vittorio Rosato, Elias Kyriakides, and Erich Rome (Eds.). 2016. Managing the Complexity of Critical Infrastructures: A Modelling and Simulation Approach. Springer International Publishing. https://www.springer.com/de/book/9783319510422

Digital Library

[29]

S. C. Srivasta, A. Velayutham, K. K. Agrawal, and A. S. Bakshi. 2012. Report of the Enquiry Committee on Grid Disturbance in Northern Region on 30th July 2012 and in Norther, Eastern and Noth-Eastern Region on 31st July 2012. Technical Report. Ministry of Power, Government of India, New Dehli, India. https://powermin.nic.in/sites/default/files/uploads/GRID_ENQ_REP_16_8_12.pdf

[30]

Nils Svendsen and Stephen Wolthusen. 2007. Multigraph Dependency Models for Heterogeneous Infrastructures. In Critical Infrastructure Protection (IFIP International Federation for Information Processing). Springer, Boston, MA, Hanover, USA, 337--350.

[31]

Nils K. Svendsen and Stephen D. Wolthusen. 2007. Analysis and Statistical Properties of Critical Infrastructure Interdependency Multiflow Models. IEEE, 247--254.

[32]

Nils Kalstad Svendsen and Stephen D. Wolthusen. 2007. Connectivity models of interdependency in mixed-type critical infrastructure networks. Information Security Technical Report 12, 1 (2007), 44--55.

[33]

Murray Turoff. 1971. An alternative approach to cross impact analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 3 (1971), 309--339.

[34]

Zhifang Wang, Anna Scaglione, and Robert J. Thomas. 2012. A Markov-Transition Model for Cascading Failures in Power Grids. In 2012 45th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences. 2115--2124.

Digital Library

[35]

Erica Wiseman. 2014. Critical Infrastructure Protection and Resilience Literature Survey: Modeling and Simulation. Technical Report NRC-18526. National Research Council of Canada, Ottawa, Canada. http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/AD1003598

[36]

Sheng-Jhih Wu and Moody T. Chu. 2017. Markov chains with memory, tensor formulation, and the dynamics of power iteration. Appl. Math. Comput. 303 (2017), 226--239.

Digital Library

[37]

Zhenyu Yan, Yacov Y. Haimes, and Marc Griffin Wallner. 2006. Hierarchical coordinated Bayesian model for risk analysis with sparse data. (2006).

Cited By

Wang RVenugopalan SAdepu S(2024)Safety Analysis for Cyber-Physical Systems Under Cyber Attacks Using Digital Twin2024 IEEE International Conference on Cyber Security and Resilience (CSR)10.1109/CSR61664.2024.10679484(1-8)Online publication date: 2-Sep-2024
https://doi.org/10.1109/CSR61664.2024.10679484
Kim DAhn MLee SLee DPark MShin D(2023)Improved Cyber Defense Modeling Framework for Modeling and Simulating the Lifecycle of Cyber Defense ActivitiesIEEE Access10.1109/ACCESS.2023.332490111(114187-114200)Online publication date: 2023
https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2023.3324901
Coletti ADe Nicola ADi Pietro ALa Porta LPollino MRosato VVicoli GVillani M(2020)A comprehensive system for semantic spatiotemporal assessment of risk in urban areasJournal of Contingencies and Crisis Management10.1111/1468-5973.1230928:3(178-193)Online publication date: 29-Sep-2020
https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.12309
Show More Cited By

Recommendations

Research on Critical Infrastructures and Critical Information Infrastructures
BLISS '09: Proceedings of the 2009 Symposium on Bio-inspired Learning and Intelligent Systems for Security

A research on current condition and problems of critical infrastructures and critical information infrastructures is described in this paper. This article includes issues, the discussion of problems and comments about each of the common Critical ...
Estimating Cascading Effects in Cyber-Physical Critical Infrastructures
Critical Information Infrastructures Security
Abstract
Nowadays, critical infrastructures operate a large number of highly interdependent, cyber-physical systems. Thus, incidents can have far-reaching cascading effects throughout the entire infrastructure, which need to be identified and estimated to ...
Federated Agent-based Modeling and Simulation Approach to Study Interdependencies in IT Critical Infrastructures
DS-RT '07: Proceedings of the 11th IEEE International Symposium on Distributed Simulation and Real-Time Applications

Agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS) is one of the more promising simulation techniques to study the interdependencies in critical infrastructures. Moreover, federated simulation has two relevant properties, simulation models reuse and expertise ...

Comments

Please enable JavaScript to view thecomments powered by Disqus.

Information & Contributors

Information

Published In

cover image ACM Other conferences

ARES '18: Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Availability, Reliability and Security

August 2018

603 pages

ISBN:9781450364485

DOI:10.1145/3230833

Copyright © 2018 ACM.

Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than ACM must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected]

In-Cooperation

Universität Hamburg: Universität Hamburg

Publisher

Association for Computing Machinery

New York, NY, United States

Publication History

Published: 27 August 2018

Permissions

Request permissions for this article.

Request Permissions

Check for updates

Author Tags

Qualifiers

Research-article
Research
Refereed limited

Conference

ARES 2018

ARES 2018: International Conference on Availability, Reliability and Security

August 27 - 30, 2018

Hamburg, Germany

Acceptance Rates

ARES '18 Paper Acceptance Rate 128 of 260 submissions, 49%;

Overall Acceptance Rate 228 of 451 submissions, 51%

Contributors

Other Metrics

View Article Metrics

Bibliometrics & Citations

Bibliometrics

Article Metrics

4
Total Citations
View Citations
185
Total Downloads

Downloads (Last 12 months)33
Downloads (Last 6 weeks)2

Reflects downloads up to 06 Feb 2025

Other Metrics

View Author Metrics

Citations

Cited By

Wang RVenugopalan SAdepu S(2024)Safety Analysis for Cyber-Physical Systems Under Cyber Attacks Using Digital Twin2024 IEEE International Conference on Cyber Security and Resilience (CSR)10.1109/CSR61664.2024.10679484(1-8)Online publication date: 2-Sep-2024
https://doi.org/10.1109/CSR61664.2024.10679484
Kim DAhn MLee SLee DPark MShin D(2023)Improved Cyber Defense Modeling Framework for Modeling and Simulating the Lifecycle of Cyber Defense ActivitiesIEEE Access10.1109/ACCESS.2023.332490111(114187-114200)Online publication date: 2023
https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2023.3324901
Coletti ADe Nicola ADi Pietro ALa Porta LPollino MRosato VVicoli GVillani M(2020)A comprehensive system for semantic spatiotemporal assessment of risk in urban areasJournal of Contingencies and Crisis Management10.1111/1468-5973.1230928:3(178-193)Online publication date: 29-Sep-2020
https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.12309
Schauer SRass S(2020)Creating a Cross-Domain Simulation Framework for Risk Analyses of CitiesCritical Infrastructure Protection XIV10.1007/978-3-030-62840-6_15(307-323)Online publication date: 15-Dec-2020
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-62840-6_15

View Options

Login options

Check if you have access through your login credentials or your institution to get full access on this article.

Full Access

Get this Publication

View options

PDF

View or Download as a PDF file.

eReader

View online with eReader.

Figures

Tables

Media

View Table of Conten