Arizona House of Representatives elections, 2016
| 2016 Arizona House Elections | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Primary | August 30, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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| 2016 Elections | |
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All 60 seats in the Arizona House of Representatives were up for election in 2016. Democrats gained two seats in the November 2016 general election.
Introduction
Elections for the Arizona House of Representatives took place in 2016. The primary election took place on August 30, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was June 1, 2016.[3]
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state houses
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the Arizona House of Representatives:
| Arizona House of Representatives | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 24 | 25 | |
| Republican Party | 36 | 35 | |
| Total | 60 | 60 | |
Retired incumbents
Eighteen incumbent senators did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Karen Fann | House District 1 | |
| Lisa Otondo | House District 4 | |
| Sonny Borrelli | House District 5 | |
| Albert Hale | House District 7 | |
| Jennifer Benally | House District 7 | |
| Frank Pratt | House District 8 | |
| Bruce Wheeler | House District 10 | |
| Warren Petersen | House District 12 | |
| Steve Montenegro | House District 13 | |
| David Gowan | House District 14 | |
| David Stevens | House District 14 | |
| Rick Gray | House District 21 | |
| Justin Olson | House District 25 | |
| Juan Mendez | House District 26 | |
| Eric Meyer | House District 28 | |
| Kate Brophy McGee | House District 28 | |
| Ceci Velasquez | House District 29 | |
| Debbie McCune-Davis | House District 30 |
2016 election competitiveness
Arizona sees a drop in electoral competitiveness.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Arizona performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the Arizona State Senate, there were 12 Democratic incumbents and 18 Republican incumbents. Two incumbents faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There was just one primary challenge in the Republican primary.
- In the House, there were 24 Democratic incumbents and 36 Republican incumbents. Nine state representative faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were seven primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Arizona can be found below.
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 Arizona House general election candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Other | ||
| 1 | Peter Pierson: 33,396 | Noel Campbell: 70,412 (I) David Stringer: 65,993 |
Haryaksha Gregor Knauer: 12,145 (G) |
| 2 | Rosanna Gabaldon: 32,495 (I) Daniel Hernandez: 32,651 |
John Ackerley: 28,506 (I) | |
| 3 | Macario Saldate: 31,299 (I) Sally Ann Gonzales: 41,706 (I) |
No candidate | Edward Cizek, III: 10,150 (G) |
| 4 | Jesus Rubalcava: 27,794 Charlene Fernandez: 29,755 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 5 | Beth Weisser: 20,301 | Paul Mosley: 49,453 Regina Cobb: 47,738 (I) |
Leo Biasiucci: 8,827 (G) |
| 6 | Alex Martinez: 44,229 | Brenda Barton: 47,631 (I) Bob Thorpe: 48,999 (I) |
|
| 7 | Eric Descheenie: 41,398 Wenona Benally: 37,261 |
No candidate | |
| 8 | Carmen Casillas: 26,138 | Thomas Shope, Jr.: 30,416 (I) David Cook: 31,565 |
|
| 9 | Randall Friese: 51,033 (I) Pamela Powers Hannley: 45,387 |
Ana Henderson: 41,792 | |
| 10 | Stefanie Mach: 44,770 (I) Kirsten Engel: 45,530 |
Todd Clodfelter: 45,627 |
|
| 11 | Corin Hammond: 42,511 | Mark Finchem: 52,509 (I) Vince Leach: 49,209 (I) |
|
| 12 | No candidate | Travis Grantham: 66,053 Eddie Farnsworth: 67,225 (I) |
|
| 13 | Iisha Graves: 28,500 | Darin Mitchell: 45,699 (I) Don Shooter: 47,748 |
|
| 14 | Mike Holmes: 28,161 Jason Lindstrom: 27,527 |
Becky Nutt: 47,578 Drew John: 49,914 |
|
| 15 | Brandon Dwyer: 36,729 | Heather Carter: 60,779 (I) John Allen: 52,832 (I) |
|
| 16 | Cara Prior: 24,581 Sharon Stinard: 25,912 |
Doug Coleman: 51,312 (I) Kelly Townsend: 51,466 (I) |
|
| 17 | Jennifer Pawlik: 44,128 | J.D. Mesnard: 48,384 (I) Jeff Weninger: 51,712 (I) |
|
| 18 | Mitzi Epstein: 52,002 |
Bob Robson: 47,569 (I) Jill Norgaard: 50,613 (I) |
Linda Macias: 21,039 (G) |
| 19 | Mark Cardenas: 27,263 (I) Diego Espinoza: 30,693 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 20 | Chris Gilfillan: 35,117 | Paul Boyer: 39,780 (I) Anthony Kern: 39,118 (I) |
|
| 21 | Deanna Rasmussen-Lacotta: 34,180 | Kevin Payne: 45,639 Tony Rivero: 44,060 (I) |
|
| 22 | Manuel Hernandez: 37,938 | Phil Lovas: 64,347 (I) David Livingston: 69,251 (I) |
|
| 23 | Tammy Caputi: 46,255 | Jay Lawrence: 64,903 (I) Michelle Ugenti-Rita: 69,758 (I) |
|
| 24 | Lela Alston: 43,160 (I) Ken Clark: 41,927 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 25 | Kathleen Rahn: 32,225 | Michelle Udall: 55,941 Russell Bowers: 51,160 (I) |
|
| 26 | Isela Blanc: 26,981 Athena Salman: 28,038 |
Steven Adkins: 19,469 | Cara Trujillo: 9,941 (G) |
| 27 | Reginald Bolding: 27,559 (I) Rebecca Rios: 37,701 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 28 | Kelli Butler: 49,139 |
Mary Hamway: 44,355 Maria Syms: 46,739 |
|
| 29 | Richard Andrade: 21,257 (I) Cesar Chavez: 25,564 |
John Wilson: 13,920 | |
| 30 | Ray Martinez: 22,853 Tony Navarrete: 22,810 |
Gary Cox: 14,831 | |
Notes:
| |||
Primary election
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Arizona House of Representatives in 2016 was higher than other chambers that elect their members in races with two winners. The 60 seats in the Arizona House of Representatives are elected in 30 races with two winners each. In the 30 races in 2016, 21 races were contested, meaning at least three candidates competed for the two seats in the general election, and did not split between the parties. The average margin of victory across these races, measured as the distance between the winner with the fewest votes and the loser with the most votes, was 10.8 percent. Across all similar two-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 10.4 percent.
| Democratic candidates in the Arizona House of Representatives saw larger margins of victory than Republican candidates in 2016. Republicans won 35 seats in 2016: two in unopposed races, three in races that split between the parties, and 30 in contested races where their party won both seats. In the 15 contested races where Republicans won both seats, the average margin of victory was 10.6 percent. Democrats won 25 seats in 2016: ten in unopposed races, three in races that split between the parties, and 12 in contested races where their party won both seats. In the six contested races where Democrats won both seats, the average margin of victory was 11.1 percent. |
| More Republican candidates than Democratic candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. A total of nine of the 21 races that were both contested and did not split between the parties—42.9 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Seven races—33.3 percent—saw margins of victory that were 5 percent or less. Republicans won both seats in six races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
| Arizona House of Representatives: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party 1 | Winning Party 2 | Margin of Victory | Losing Party 1 |
| District 2 | D | D | 4.3 percent | R |
| District 6 | R | R | 2.4 percent | D |
| District 8 | R | R | 4.9 percent | D |
| District 9 | D | D | 2.6 percent | R |
| District 11 | R | R | 4.6 percent | D |
| District 17 | R | R | 3.0 percent | D |
| District 20 | R | R | 3.5 percent | D |
| District 21 | R | R | 8.0 percent | D |
| District 26 | D | D | 8.9 percent | R |
Arizona House of Representatives: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Seats won Incumbents winning seats Average margin of victory[4] Unopposed seats Percent unopposed Democrats 25 12 11.1 percent 10 40.0 percent Republicans 35 24 10.6 percent 2 5.7 percent Total 60 36 10.8 percent 12 20.0 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Arizona House districts in 2016.
| Arizona House of Representatives: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party 1 | Winning Party 2 | Margin of Victory | Losing Party 1 |
| District 1 | R | R | 17.9 percent | D |
| District 2 | D | D | 4.3 percent | R |
| District 3 | D | D | 25.4 percent | Green Party |
| District 4 | D | D | Unopposed | None |
| District 5 | R | R | 21.7 percent | D |
| District 6 | R | R | 2.4 percent | D |
| District 7 | D | D | Unopposed | None |
| District 8 | R | R | 4.9 percent | D |
| District 9 | D | D | 2.6 percent | R |
| District 10 | R | D | 0.6 percent | D |
| District 11 | R | R | 4.6 percent | D |
| District 12 | R | R | Unopposed | None |
| District 13 | R | R | 14.1 percent | D |
| District 14 | R | R | 12.7 percent | D |
| District 15 | R | R | 10.7 percent | D |
| District 16 | R | R | 16.6 percent | D |
| District 17 | R | R | 3.0 percent | D |
| District 18 | D | R | 1.8 percent | R |
| District 19 | D | D | Unopposed | None |
| District 20 | R | R | 3.5 percent | D |
| District 21 | R | R | 8.0 percent | D |
| District 22 | R | R | 15.4 percent | D |
| District 23 | R | R | 10.3 percent | D |
| District 24 | D | D | Unopposed | None |
| District 25 | R | R | 13.6 percent | D |
| District 26 | D | D | 8.9 percent | R |
| District 27 | D | D | Unopposed | None |
| District 28 | D | R | 1.7 percent | R |
| District 29 | D | D | 12.1 percent | R |
| District 30 | D | D | 13.2 percent | R |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Arizona elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Arizona in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| September 24, 2015 | Ballot access | First day to file new party petitions for the presidential preference primary | |
| October 24, 2015 | Ballot access | Last day to file new party petitions for the presidential preference primary | |
| November 13, 2015 | Ballot access | First day to file as a candidate for the presidential preference primary | |
| December 14, 2015 | Ballot access | Last day to file as a candidate for the presidential preference primary | |
| January 1 to February 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | January 31 report due (covering November 25, 2014, to December 31, 2015) | |
| March 3, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for filing new party petitions for the general election | |
| March 22, 2016 | Election date | Presidential preference primary | |
| May 2, 2016 | Ballot access | First day for filing candidate nomination petitions | |
| June 1, 2016 | Ballot access | Last day for filing candidate nomination petitions | |
| June 1 to June 30, 2016 | Campaign finance | June 30 report due (covering January 1 to May 31, 2016) | |
| July 21, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for filing as a write-in candidate for the primary election | |
| August 19 to August 26, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-primary report due (covering June 1 to August 18, 2016) | |
| August 30, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| September 29, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for filing as a write-in candidate for the general election | |
| September 20 to September 29, 2016 | Campaign finance | Post-primary report due (covering August 19 to September 19, 2016) | |
| October 28 to November 4, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-general report due (covering September 20 to October 27, 2016) | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| November 29 to December 8, 2016 | Campaign finance | Post-general report due (covering October 28 to November 28, 2016) | |
| Source: Arizona Secretary of State, "Elections Calendar & Upcoming Events," accessed June 5, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 35 of the 60 seats up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of 18 Democrats and 17 Republicans were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 25 of the 60 seats up for election.
Primary challenges
Sixteen incumbents faced primary competition on August 30. Eighteen incumbents did not seek re-election and another 26 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents
Eighteen incumbent senators did not run for re-election, while 43 ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, 10 Republicans and eight Democrats, can be found above.
Impact of term limits
- See also: State legislatures with term limits
All of Arizona's 60 state representative seats were up for election on November 8. Arizona representatives serve two-year terms with a four-term/eight-year limit that was imposed by Proposition 107 in 1992. Arizona's term limits apply to parts of terms and not just full terms.
There are 60 members of the Arizona House of Representatives. In the 2016 state house elections, five representatives, one Democrat and four Republicans, were ineligible to run again in November.
The state representatives who were term-limited in 2016 were:
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|
|
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index — the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition and general elections between partisan candidates — showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Arizona's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Arizona Legislature 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 30.0% | 38.1% | 60.0% | 42.7 | 8 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State House in Arizona in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State House races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[5]
| Arizona House of Representatives Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 130 | $6,331,596 |
| 2012 | 125 | $4,076,615 |
| 2010 | 166 | $5,267,654 |
| 2008 | 135 | $5,415,688 |
| 2006 | 137 | $4,358,883 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state houses. The average contributions raised by state house candidates in 2014 was $59,983. Arizona, at $48,705 per candidate, is ranked 21 of 45 for state house chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s house candidates in 2014.[5][6]
Qualifications
Article 4, Part 2, Section 2 of the Arizona Constitution states: "No person shall be a member of the Legislature unless he shall be a citizen of the United States at the time of his election, nor unless he shall be at least twenty-five years of age, and shall have been a resident of Arizona at least three years and of the county from which he is elected at least one year before his election."
See also
Footnotes
- ↑ These were seats where just one or no Democratic or Republican candidates ran for election.
- ↑ Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive. Districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
- ↑ Arizona Secretary of State, "Elections Calendar & Upcoming Events," accessed January 11, 2016
- ↑ Excludes unopposed elections and districts that split between the parties
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Arizona," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
