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Demonetization Impact On MSME

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Flexible in Approach, Firm on Results

Impact of Demonitization on MSMEs

RedSeer Perspective

© 2017 RedSeer Consulting Confidential and Proprietary Information www.redseerconsulting.com query@redseerconsulting.com | 1


Demonetization had had a severe negative impact on the sector…

Demonetization Impact: Industry & Business


In %Respondents, N=153

No. of units that….


Do every 8 out of 10
Had a negative impact from demonetization Benefited from cashless economy 1
transactions in cash
Yes No

3% 55%
93% 86% 71%

Industry Their OWN Business


Others include respondents who were not sure of the
impact of cashless economy to their business

“Our primary customer is housewife who saves money


“Cashless economy is a nice initiative from the
for a year and then come to these manufacturers to
government, however the initiative was taken far too
make a jewellery but because of demonetisation money
early and implementation involved a lot of issues.”
had to be deposited in bank so they are not able to
purchase the jewellery.”
- Respondent, Jaipur
- Respondent, Jaipur

 MSMEs are highly cash dependant


Highlights  Only 3% of the respondents claimed to have benefitted from cashless economy

Source: RedSeer Analysis | 2


…resulting in loss of employment, increased credit cycle and promoter had to lose a lot of
business unless they took significant steps…
Demonetization Impact: Industry & Business
In %Respondents, N=153 25%+ 15-25%  1-15% 1-20%  20%+ 

Impact
11%
Started using alternative modes of payment
4% • Started making payments through
~80% cards/cheques and mobile wallets- 70%
• Started receiving payments through cheques
0% and mobile wallets- 45%

Promoters increased their credit cycle


• Gave more credit to buyers- 55%
~60% • Delayed payments to vendors/ employees- 30%

Laid off employees


~30%

89%
96%

~16% Could not do much and suffer loss in business


Nov-Dec’16 Jan-Feb’17

 ~96% of businesses suffered loss in sales post demonetisation


Highlights  The loss in sales has recovered marginally in January-February from the bottom set in November-December
 ~60% Promoters had to increase the credit cycle & ~80% started using alternatives to cash

Source: RedSeer Analysis | 3


Annexure
Annexure – Breakup of responses by manufacturers

Demonetisation Impact On Industry


N = 153 Bad impact Slight impact Did not impact

How was the impact of demonetization on your


industry?
2%
12%

Industry was negatively impacted by


Demonetisation with sales going down
for ~all industries
86%

Source: RedSeer Analysis | 4


Annexure
Annexure – Breakup of responses by manufacturers

Demonetisation Impact On Respondents’ Business


N = 153 Bad impact Slight impact Did not impact

What was the impact of demonetization


on your OWN business?

2%

27%

Business were also negatively


impacted by Demonetisation like the
Industry

71%

Source: RedSeer Analysis | 5


Annexure
Annexure – Breakup of responses by manufacturers

40-60% 25-40% 15-25%  10-15%


Sales impact post demonetization
N = 153 1-10%  1-10%  10-20%  20-40%

As per your estimate, how much was the impact on


your business in terms of sales (in %)

11%
4%

The negative impact on sales from


0%
demonetization has reduced and sales have
started to recover from the lows of
November-December

89%

96%

Source: RedSeer Analysis | 6


Annexure
Annexure – Breakup of responses by manufacturers

Steps taken by promoters to tackle demonetization


N = 153
What were the steps that you took to
tackle demonetization?
Delayed payments to vendors/
47%
employees
Started making more payment
41%
through Debit/ Credit Cards
Started making more payment
37%
~ 50% had to delay payments to their through Mobile Wallets
vendors, employees Started making more payment
33%
through Cheques

Majority have started using cashless Laid off employees 27%


alternatives

Gave more credit to buyers 27%

Receiving payments from customers


24%
through wallets
Could not do much - just lost
16%
business
Receiving payments from customers
16%
in cheque

Installed PoS etc 8%

Note: Sum could be greater than 100% as respondents could choose more than one option

Source: RedSeer Analysis | 7


Annexure
Annexure – Breakup of responses by manufacturers

Benefits From Digital Transactions


N = 153 Disagree Don't know/Can't say Agree

Have you benefited from digital transactions


or see any benefit from same?
2%

42%

~98% people don’t agree that digital


transactions benefitted their business

56%

Source: RedSeer Analysis | 8


Annexure
Annexure – Breakup of responses by manufacturers

Cash dependence of businesses


N = 153 100% 80% to 100% 50% to 80% Less than 50%

How much of your business is usually done in cash?

1%

6%

Business dependence on cash is ~90%


46%

47%

Source: RedSeer Analysis | 9


Annexure
Annexure – Breakup of responses by manufacturers

Demonetization: Impact
N = 153

How long do you think the effects of


demonetization will last?

More than 50% of


Respondents feel than
industry and business will
take at least 6 months to a
year to totally recover from 55%
the impact of
demonetization
25%
20%
~25% of the respondents
said the effect will last more Less tha 6 months 6 months to 1 year More than 1 year
than a year

Source: RedSeer Analysis | 10

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