Electrical Energy Crises Remedial Measures, Emphasizing The Hydel Power Role

Electrical Energy Crises
Remedial Measures,
Emphasizing the hydel
power role
By
Prof.Dr Engr.S.M.Bhutta
Energy the lifeline of economic development.

Pakistan is the poorest of the poor as far as
energy consumption for capital is concerned.
Per capita energy consumption, is one of the
indicator of Industrial development and quality
of life of a country.
Pakistan has 14 Million BTUs as compared
to 92 Million BTUs of Malaysia and 34 Million
BTUs for China.
Per Capita electrical consumption per year of
Pakistan is 470kWh, & of Malaysia is 2,708 &
of Singapore is 6,775 kWh
Electrical Power Generation Plan
2005
Electric Power Demand (2007-2025)

120000
101478
100000
72169
MW
80000
60000
44903
35413
40000
22353
20000
17328
0
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
2022
2025
2028
Generation Expansion Plan 2007-2030
2007
2012
2015
2020
2025
2030
Hydel
6474
7379
9071
17423
23948
23948
IPPs
6466
14205
22045
36345
58955
95355
Genco+KESC
6431
10082
10082
10082
10082
10082
150
846
846
846
846
846
19521
32512
42044
64696
Rental
Total
93831 130231
Generation Expansion Plan (2007-2030)

130231
140000
120000
93831
MW
100000
80000
64696
60000
40000
20000
42044
32512
19521
2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028
As per generation expansion plan system needs additions of 32512 MW and

93831 MW by years 2012 and by 2025, respectively.
Hydropower Generation Expansion Plan

30000
23948
25000
MW
20000
23948
17423
15000
10000
5000
6464
9071
7379
2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028
2597 MW by 2015 and 17474 MW by 2025.
Hydropower Addition as Per Generation

Expansion Plan
8352
9000
8000
6525
7000
MW
6000
5000
4000
1692
3000
2000
905
1000
0
2012
2015
2020
2025
2030
Hydropower projects under study.

Sr.
No.
Project
Keyal
Khwar
River
Present Status
Estimated
Construction
Cost
(US$)
Patan
122
Jun 2009
Feasibility Study completed.

Detailed Design and Tender
Documents initiated.
160 million
Kohala
Kohala
1100
Aug 2009
Feasibility Study, Detailed

Design and Tender
Documents in progress.
1.7 billion
Dasu
Dasu
4000
Mar 2011
6.5 billion
Lower
Spat Gah
Spat Gah Patan
610
Dec 2010
Feasibility Study in
progress.
progress.
Chor
Nullah
Patan
621
Dec 2010
Gilgit
5400
Apr 2010
Gilgit
80
Sep 2009
5
6
Bunji
Phandar
Keyal
Khwar
Tentative
Installed
Locati
completion
Capacity
on
month of
(MW)
the study
Ghizar
700 million
progress.
Feasibility Study, Detailed
Design and Tender
Documents in progress.
700 million
Appointment of Consultants
for Detailed Design and
Tender Documents in
process.
65 million
6 billion
Basho
Basho
Skardu
28
Sep 2009
Lawi
Shishi
Darosh
Chitral
70
Jun 2011
10
Thakot
Thakot
2800
Jun 2013
11
Patan
Patan
2800
Jun 2015
12
Golen Gol Golen

GolMastuj
Chitral
Mastuj
106
Nov 2008
13
Harpo
Skardu
33
14
Yulbo
Skardu
3000
HarpoLungma
TOTAL
20770
Appointment of Consultants
for Detailed Design and
Tender Documents in
process.
Feasibility Study completed.
PC-II for Detailed Design
and Tender Documents
initiated.
PC-II for Feasibility Study,
Documents under
preparation.
PC-II for Feasibility Study,
Documents under
preparation.
Study for Detailed Design
and Tender Documents in
progress. Tendering progress
initiated.
PC-II for Detailed Design
and Tender Documents
prepared & ready for
submission to Ministry of
Water & Power.
Desk study & field
reconnaissance initiated
30 million
120 million
5 billion
5 billion
130 million
40 million
6 billion
32.15
billion
Power Sector Installed Capacity of Pakistan

An overview of Installed Capacity of Power Sector of the
country is as follows:
WAPDA Thermal
6441 MW
Hydel
6464 MW
Nuclear
462 MW
IPPS (Thermal)
6154 MW
Total
19521 MW
Study of the utilization of various sources of power
development in the country concludes as follows:
Gas
35.7%
Oil
28.7%
Coal
0.3%
Nuclear
2.3%
Hydel
33%
Installed Hydropower Stations

Components of Hydropower System in Pakistan
Sr. No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Name of Station
Tarbela
Ghazi Barotha
Mangla
Warsak
Chashma
Rasul
Malakand
Dargai
Nandipur
Shadiwal
Chichoki Malian
K.Garhi & Renala
Chitral
Satpara
Total
Installed capacity (MWs)

3478.00
1450.00
1000.00
240.00
184.00
22.00
19.60
20.00
13.80
13.50
13.20
5.10
1.00
4.86
6464.00
Public Sector Future Projects
Name of
Project
Installed
Capacity
(MW)
Kalabagh
3600
Basha
4500
Munda
660
Total
8760
Present Status
Feasibility & Tender
Documents
Completed
Feasibility
Completed & Detailed
Design in Progress
Hydropower Projects in Private Sector

Name of Project Capacity
(MW)
Tentative
Commissioning
New Bong Escape at
84
2010
Rajdhani at Punch
(AJK)
Matiltan at Swat
132
2011
84
2012
Malakand III( )
81
2008
Kotli
100
2011
Gulpur (AJK)
120
2012
Gabral Kalam
101
2012
WAPDAs RESTRUCTURING
NTDC
(1)
POWER WING
GENCOs
DISCOs
(4)
(9)
GENERATION
Thermal Power
Stations
TRANSMISSION
Grid Station/Trans. Lines
Operation & Maintenance
DISTRIBUTION
Area Electricity Boards
OVERVIEW OF PAKISTAN POWER SECTOR

GENERATION PATTERN
Hydel
6489 MW
(33%)
Oil
6497 MW
(34%)
Total 19403 MW
Gas
5815 MW
(30%)
Coal
150 MW
(1%)
Nuclear
452 MW
(2%)
WAPDAs RESTRUCTURING
NTDC
(1)
WAPDA HYDEL
(1)
POWER WING
GENCOs
DISCOs
(4)
(9)
GENERATION
Thermal Power
Stations
TRANSMISSION
Grid Station/Trans. Lines
Operation & Maintenance
DISTRIBUTION
Distribution Companies
There are several Barriers in the development of Hydel Power
1. Technology and Information Barriers.

2. Policy Barriers.
3. Regulatory Barriers.
4.
Institutional Barriers.
5. Financial Barriers.
6. Interconnection Barriers.
7. Tariff.
8. Procedural impediments.
9. Risks
a. Hydrological Risks
b. Geological Risks.
c. Environment Risks.
d. Miscellaneous.
Technology and information Barriers.

We lack knowledge & information about the technology
of hydel power.
Need for education of hydel power technology not only
for the students & engineers but also for general public
Strategy to achieve five Es
E----- Education
E----- Energy
E----- Employment
E----- Equity
E----- Enterprise
UET Taxila has taken a lead in starting the classes for

post graduate students about Hydel Power to implement the
most important Es of education in energy & for employment
on equity basics for enterprises.
and Micro Hydel Plants
Oil, Gas and Coal

Renewable Energy resources
Suitable human resource development to

fulfill the energy growth requirements
PAKISTANS HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL

(SUMMARY)
Sr.
No.
River/ Tributary
Power
(MW)
1.
Indus River
35760
2.
Tributaries of Indus (Northern Areas) of NWFP
5558
Sub Total (1+2)
41318
3.
Jhelum River
3143
4,
Kunhar River
1250
5.
Neelum River & its Tributaries
2459
6.
Poonch River
397
Sub Total (3+4+5+6)
7249
7.
Swat River & its Tributaries
2388
8.
Chitral River & its Tributaries
2282
Sub Total (7+8)

9.
Schemes below 50 MW on Tributaries
TOTAL
4670
1290
54527
27
PAKISTANS HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL
Small
Hydel
Swat & Chitral

River
1290 MW
Jhelum
River
Basin
2.4
4528 MW
8.3
7249 MW
Indus River Basin
13.2
Jhelum River Basin

Swat & Chitral River
Small Hydel
4181676.2
MW
Indus River
Basin
28
29
DIAMER BASHA DAM MULTI-PURPOSE PROJECT

(PROFILE OF PROJECT UNDER EXECUTION)
Project Location
Chilas on Indus River 315 km upstream of Tarbela Dam,
Height of Dam
272 m
Length of Dam
990 m
Gross Storage
8.1 Million-acre feet (MAF)
Live Storage
6.4MAF
Total Installed Capacity 4,500MW

Total Number of Units
12, each of 375 MW
Power Houses
2 (2,250 MW each)
Average Generation
18,000 Gwh/ annum
Construction Period
2009-2017
Present Status
Feasibility Completed in 2007.
Construction to start by mid 2009.
KALABAGH DAM PROJECT

(Multi Purpose but Made Controversial)
1. NEED FOR KALABAGH DAM FOR IRRIGATION & ELECTRICTY
35 million acres land of Pakistan is irrigated

by canals and tube wells.
Canal with drawl increased from 67 to 105
MAF between the years 1947 and 1976 .
Storage depleted by 5MAF by 2006.
Situation of water shortage, threat of famine
Pakistan will have reached the stage of
acute water shortage, where people fight for
every drop of water.
NATIONAL LOSS IF KALABAGH DAM IS NOT BUILT

National food needs would be jeopardized as of population growth.
28% loss of storage capacity of the on-line reservoirs due to sedimentation
would result in shortage of committed irrigation supplies.
For implementation of Water Apportionment Accord 1991, new storages
are essential. In its absence it would give rise in bitter inter-provincial
disputes,
The Annual energy generated at Kalabagh would be equivalent to 20
million barrels of oil otherwise needed to produce thermal power.
Reservoir
Live storage
6.1 MAF
Retention level
915 ft SPD*
Minimum reservoir level 825 ft SPD*
Area at retention level
164 sq mile
Main Dam
Crest elevation
940 ft SPD*
Crest width
50 ft
Maximum height
260 ft
Length
4,375 ft
Installed Capacity
3600 MW
Estimated Cost about US$6.2 Billion
APPREHENSION OF NWFP
1. flooding of Peshawar Valley including Nowshera
Backwater effect of Kalabagh Lake would end about 10 miles

downstream of Nowshera.
2. Area of Mardan, Pabbi and Swabi plains would be
adversely affected creating water logging and salinity.
Lowest ground levels at Mardan, Pabbi and Swabi areas are
970, 960 and 1000 feet above MSL respectively, as compared to
the maximum conservation level of 915 ft for Kalabagh operation
pattern of reservoir cannot block the land drainage and cause
water logging or salinity
4.Operation of Mardan SCARP would be adversely

affected.
The invert levels of main drains of Mardan SCARP are higher
than reservoir elevation of 915 feet and the back water level in
Kabul River and Kalapani Khwar. These drains would keep on
functioning without any obstruction.
5.Fertile cultivable land would be submerged.
Total cultivable affected land under the reservoir is only
35,000 acres,(24,500 acres in Punjab 3,000 acres in
NWFP).irrigated land would be only 3,000 acres (2,900 acres in
Punjab and 100 acres in NWFP).
6.Population Dislocation
total population to be relocated is 120320 of which 78170
shall be from Punjab and 42150 from NWFP.
Resettlement of Affected Population will be properly
compensated
APPREHENSIONS OF SINDH
No surplus water to fill Kalabagh reservoir
Annual average of 35 MAF has escaped below Kotri to Sea.

Kalabagh reservoir will be filled up by only 6MAF, which will
gradually be released to the provinces.
Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has studied and
confirmed that sufficient water is available for further storage.
2. Anxiety the project would render Sindh into desert.

Dams dont consume water! These only store water during
flood season and make it available on crop demand basis
It estimated that after Kalabagh, the canal withdrawals for
Sindh would further increase by about 2.25 MAF.
3.Outlets would be used to divert water from the reservoir
The project design does not include any provision for
diverting water from reservoir.
A telemetric system employing modern electronic technology
has recently been installed at each barrage and other flow
control points to monitor discharge in various canals
commands, on real time basis under the auspices of Indus
Water River System Authority (IRSA).
4.Cultivation in Sailaba areas would be effected

Flood peaks above 300,000 cusecs would still be coming
after construction of Kalabagh Dam, without detriment to the
present agricultural practices, while large floods would be
effectively controlled. This would, in fact, be conducive to
installation of permanent tube wells to provide perennial
irrigation facility in rive rain areas. The local farmer can look
forward to having two crops annually instead of the present
one crop.
5.Sea Water intrusion estuary would accentuate.
Data shows that sea water intrusion, seems to be at its
maximum even now, and it is unlikely to be aggravated further
by Kalabagh Dam.
BENEFITS & CHALLENGES OF HYDEL POWER

DEVELOPMENT
Hydel Potential of 54,000MW to be harnessed to avoid load shedding
To reduce dependency on oil import
Hydel power a stimulator for the socio-economic growth
Highly reliable, cheap operation and maintenance charges are very low
Able to respond to rapidly changing loads without loss of efficiency
The plants have a long life so highly economical
No nuisance of smoke, exhaust gases, soot, as environment, friendly

Multipurpose to give additional advantages of irrigation
Optimal Utilization of Indus River for development of Hydropower Projects in
cascade system
Technology and Information Barriers & Risks of

Hydrology Geology etc
Strategy
for
five
Es,
Education,
Energy,
Employment, Equity, Enterprise

Attractive Policy & incentives required
Upfront & Feed-in Tariff necessary

Hydrological studies on all streams, to have
central data bank of hydrology
Action
Plan
implementation
with
targets
for
faithful
Need to simplify and standardized Environment Assessment

Institute for dissemination of technology, training and R&D
recommended
Communication Infrastructure development up to the site is
required
New approaches to financing, environmental and social issues,
barriers and their mitigations, to enhance public acceptance, and
to build consensus
Need
for
technology
transfer
and
&
local
technology
development
Targeted and compatible human resource development in line
with energy generation profile
Challenges in Hydropower Projects

More Capital intensive compared to thermal
Longer gestation and construction Period

More Construction Risks (inflation, cost overruns, delays, geological
surprises, floods, extreme weather, socio-political)
Higher Tariff in the initial years
No off-the-shelf or standard machines similar to thermal plants
Very site specific. Usually a number of options for developing each site
High percentage of civil works (70-75%) - difficult to estimate end costs
Operational Risks (hydrological risk, multiple uses, future

developments/diversions)
Environmental & resettlement issues
Institutional set up at provincial level
42
Challenges in Hydropower Projects

Generally located in remote area, lack of basic
infrastructure (access roads, tunnels, electricity,
telephone, colony, potable water, manpower)
Dedicated and expensive delivery infrastructure required
Extra thermal capacity for backup in low water season
Hydel Generation varies with availability of water & head

Limited International experience in Private Hydropower
Projects
Specific Tariff & Security Documents issues

Project Agreements (IA, PPA) are different and complex
Clearances from the Provinces, Water Use Agreement
etc.
43

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Electrical Energy Crises

Energy the lifeline of economic development.

Electrical Power Generation Plan

Electric Power Demand (2007-2025)

Generation Expansion Plan 2007-2030

Generation Expansion Plan (2007-2030)

2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028

As per generation expansion plan system needs additions of 32512 MW and

Hydropower Generation Expansion Plan

2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028

2597 MW by 2015 and 17474 MW by 2025.

Hydropower Addition as Per Generation

Hydropower projects under study.

Feasibility Study completed.

Feasibility Study, Detailed

Spat Gah Patan

Golen Gol Golen

Power Sector Installed Capacity of Pakistan

Installed Hydropower Stations

Installed capacity (MWs)

Public Sector Future Projects

Hydropower Projects in Private Sector

New Bong Escape at

Area Electricity Boards

OVERVIEW OF PAKISTAN POWER SECTOR

There are several Barriers in the development of Hydel Power

1. Technology and Information Barriers.

Technology and information Barriers.

UET Taxila has taken a lead in starting the classes for

and Micro Hydel Plants

Oil, Gas and Coal

Suitable human resource development to

PAKISTANS HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL

Tributaries of Indus (Northern Areas) of NWFP

Sub Total (1+2)

Neelum River & its Tributaries

Swat River & its Tributaries

Chitral River & its Tributaries

Sub Total (7+8)

Schemes below 50 MW on Tributaries

PAKISTANS HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL

Swat & Chitral

Jhelum River Basin

DIAMER BASHA DAM MULTI-PURPOSE PROJECT

Chilas on Indus River 315 km upstream of Tarbela Dam,

8.1 Million-acre feet (MAF)

Total Installed Capacity 4,500MW

12, each of 375 MW

18,000 Gwh/ annum

KALABAGH DAM PROJECT

35 million acres land of Pakistan is irrigated

NATIONAL LOSS IF KALABAGH DAM IS NOT BUILT

Backwater effect of Kalabagh Lake would end about 10 miles

4.Operation of Mardan SCARP would be adversely

Annual average of 35 MAF has escaped below Kotri to Sea.

2. Anxiety the project would render Sindh into desert.

4.Cultivation in Sailaba areas would be effected

BENEFITS & CHALLENGES OF HYDEL POWER

No nuisance of smoke, exhaust gases, soot, as environment, friendly