Wikistrat Myanmar
Wikistrat Myanmar
Wikistrat Myanmar
INTRODUCTION
For 41 years, a military junta suppressed almost all dissent in Myanmar, wielding absolute power in the face of
international condemnation and sanctions. In 2011, however, a nominally civilian government led by former military
commander Thein Sein was installed. President Sein has introduced a series of political and economic reforms, including
arranging the release of democracy activist Aung San Suu Kyi after 15 years of house arrest. This has been clear progress
which has given the country a boost in international legitimacy. In fact, the international community, led by the U.S., has
actually reengaged with Myanmar through aid and the removal of non-military sanctions.
The question is whether this positive momentum can continue. Expectations for a stronger economy and fair democratic
elections in 2015 are high. However, there are several areas of concern, including but not limited to: sectarian violence
involving the Muslim minority population and Buddhist monks, media censorship, opium production, the military’s role
in politics and government corruption.
In November-December 2013, Wikistrat ran a two-week crowdsourced, online simulation where over 60 analysts
collaboratively explored Myanmar’s current political risk factors – i.e., social, political, economic and geopolitical threats
to national stability. Wikistrat’s community then built on this analysis, mapping out possible futures (positive, negative
or mixed) for the new democracy in 2015. The main objective of this simulation was to determine the factors that may
pose a threat to Myanmar’s much-praised and ongoing reforms, leading to important strategic insights.
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LEVEL OF THREAT
HIGH
LEVEL OF THREAT
MEDIUM
Corruption
Concerns about corruption and the dubious role of certain military, political, business and judicial elites persist. The
military’s vast economic empire includes a web of crony business relationships. The lack of oversight also enables illicit
transnational crime such as human, arms and narcotics smuggling, as well as money laundering.
3
LEVEL OF THREAT
HIGH
Rising Inequality
The divide between the rich and the poor as well as between majority ethnic and minority groups is growing, posing
a threat to economic (and social) stability. Myanmar is the least developed country in Southeast Asia and 25% of the
Burmese live off less than 1.25 USD a day. The government’s economic reforms mainly benefit small and well-connected
sectors but do not affect general levels of inequality and poverty. Foreign-funded projects are a further threat in rural
areas where they have priority over farmers, populations and local livelihoods.
LEVEL OF THREAT
MEDIUM
LEVEL OF THREAT
LOW
Power Shortages
Myanmar has a significant potential to produce electricity from hydroelectric dams and gas-fired generators.
Unfortunately, due to poor infrastructure, inefficient production methods and the export to China, demand is not being
met. The country has suffered from power shortages in recent years, leading to nationwide protests.
LEVEL OF THREAT
HIGH
Human Trafficking
With approximately 600,000 Burmese migrants registered for work in Thailand as well as hundreds of thousands of
other undocumented workers and refugees, any attempt to shift this labor to Myanmar may cause economic and social
disruption. This could cause civil society organizations, labor organizations and political parties to campaign for legal
reform and even discredit the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) and military for their management
of these issues, creating instability.
LEVEL OF THREAT
MEDIUM
Sectarian Conflicts
Since 2012, anti-Muslim violence has spread from the Rakhine State to other parts of the country, in a context of rising
Burman-Buddhist nationalism and growing influence of the monk-led 969 movement (that urges a boycott against
Muslim businesses). Years of frustration and anger under an authoritarian regime might now be used by a populist
political force and directed toward Muslims. Without effective government responses and changes in societal attitudes,
violence could spread again, creating more social instability and potentially impacting the political transition.
Stateless Rohingyas
The Rohingya Muslim minority is not recognized by the government and has existed for decades without citizenship or
nationality. Due to their statelessness, they do not have access to basic social services and rights that come with being a
citizen. They are also subject to discrimination, violence and human trafficking. Since 2012, there has been a recurring
cycle of Buddhist-Muslim violence in the states of Arakan and Kaman.
5
LEVEL OF THREAT
HIGH
LEVEL OF THREAT
MEDIUM
LEVEL OF THREAT
LOW
Wikistrat’s crowd built on the political risk analysis in Phase I to map out 30 possible future scenarios for Myanmar in
the year 2015 within the spheres of the economy, politics, society and geopolitics.
The scenarios were then organized into four Master Narratives (MNs), going from the worst possible outcome (external/
internal risk factors derail reforms) to the best possible outcome (external/internal risk factors do not derail reforms ).
Two questions were answered in each MN. First, what more dominantly shaped the particular scenario – external or
internal risk factors? Second, how did these risk factors impact the country’s much-praised political and economic
reforms?
The graphic below shows an X-Y chart of the four Master Narratives:
MN III:
MN IV:
Good Fences
Democracy
Make Good
Delivers
Neighbors
MN I: MN II:
Enemy at Hitting Rock
the Gates Bottom
Reforms Derailed
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Master Narrative I
Enemy at the Gates
[External Risk Factors + Reforms Derailed]
In this MN, existing threats to stability unravel in the social and economic spheres. The pace of government-led
reforms thus suffers. This prompts outside powers like China to step in to secure its interests on Myanmar’s
soil. Government weakness also allows for the rise in methamphetamine production, regional diplomatic
tensions and Islamist militancy.
Master Narrative II
Hitting Rock Bottom
[Internal Risk Factors + Reforms Derailed]
In this MN, internal challenges are not sufficiently tackled due to the decline in government legitimacy. The
domestic trigger is the Sein government’s failure to allow for constitutional reform for a legitimate election in
2015 that would enable Aung San to run. Aung San and pro-democracy activists protest the military-influenced
regime. Existing threats to stability unravel in the social sphere – i.e., among ethnic and sectarian groups. This
is especially the case after the 2014 census but is only further exacerbated after the 2015 election with no
constitutional reform. The pace of all reforms thus suffers. Maintaining law and order is the primary focus of
the military-dominated regime.
Opium Hub
By 2015, Myanmar plays a major role in the international opium and heroin economy. It maintains the second global
position behind Afghanistan but reaches first when it comes to supplying the growing consumption markets in East and
South Asia. Production booms in regions and areas with weak state control and acute underdevelopment, and traffic
amidst growing trade driven by regional economic integration. As a whole, the opium economy in Myanmar builds upon
historical, geographical, economic and political factors that allow the country to position itself as the major supplier to
East Asian markets.
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In this MN, external challenges involve foreign powers’ presence on Burmese soil. But ruling military and
political elites have one agenda – to push their country forward while leveraging such foreign interest as
much as possible to their advantage. The goal of Myanmar reaching its (economic) potential supersedes any
infringement on national sovereignty that may be taking place.
The Sein government allows for constitutional reform for a legitimate election in 2015 that sees Aung San
as winner. Aung San’s military-influenced government takes advantage of the superpower rivalries playing
out on its soil involving China, India and the United States. It also capitalizes on the interests of foreign aid
agencies and NGOs while Myanmar is such a global priority and has growing legitimacy worldwide.
Sino-Indian Competition
The new center-right government in New Delhi decides to take proactive policy measures to strengthen its influence
in its neighborhood – i.e., to lock-in resources for the growing Indian middle class, to gain ideological and political
points domestically and to make geopolitical strategic advances in the region. It ventures into Myanmar with a new
vigor. China intensifies its interaction with India’s neighbors for strategic and economic reasons. A tough competition
becomes inevitable and Myanmar exploits the regional rivalry for its own economic gains.
Master Narrative IV
Democracy Delivers
[Internal Risk Factors + Reforms Not Derailed]
Internal challenges are nipped in the bud as soon as possible due to the government’s commitment to reforms.
The Sein government allows for constitutional reform for a legitimate election in 2015 that sees Aung San
as winner. This does not mean a complete transition to democracy, as the military is still a power player in
the country. But corruption is addressed for the first time by ruling elites. Aung San’s military-influenced
government is also committed to economic reforms that include energy development and a reduction in the
opium trade. Longstanding social issues such as the Rohingya and refugees are tackled.
Energy Exploitation
There is increased demand and a rush for energy resources (oil, coal, gas, hydro) by foreign and domestic firms.
The country’s economic standing improves significantly. Increased energy production leads to increased industrial
production and hence increased exports earnings.
Refugees Repatriated
By 2015, negotiations between Myanmar, Thailand, Western governments, the U.N. and NGOs see a deal struck to begin
the repatriation of the 130,000 (Buddhist and Christian Karen) refugees living in camps along the Thai-Burmese border.
UNHCR and government coordination is essential to the success of repatriation.
Strategic Takeaways
• If the current government of President Sein does not allow for constitutional reform that gives Aung San a chance
to run in the 2015 election, domestic and foreign legitimacy will decline. There will be significant civil unrest led
by pro-democracy activists. This means the government will not be able to keep reforms going. All social, political,
economic and geopolitical risks will be exacerbated to the detriment of Myanmar’s overall development.
• The sectarian violence since 2012 between Buddhist and Muslim minority groups (including the stateless
Rohingya) shows no sign of abating. It can only be resolved if the government after 2015 acknowledges the issue
as sectarian, rather than dismissing it as a law and order issue. Some kind of dialogue between representatives of
both sides is needed at the local and national level.
• The ethnic peace process is fragile at best. It will only be exacerbated by the 2014 census, unless the Sein
government legitimately acknowledges all ethnic groups. It can only be resolved with legitimate commitment
from all parties for peace.
• A real move towards an opium-free Myanmar would require a permanent resolution with rebel groups, many
of which are involved in the drug trade; the current tactics of international organizations and the Burmese
government will then have to be increased to ensure poppy farmers are given alternative forms of employment.
• Military corruption and land seizures can only be tackled if all military and political elites are truly committed to
reforms and Myanmar’s long-term development toward democracy.
• The economy is in the hands of the ruling government. If its legitimacy is hit especially with rising ethnic/sectarian
violence, it can be expected that inequality, inflation and exchange rate volatility will become an issue. Foreign
aid will decline.
• Any progress with human trafficking will require a coordinated effort from Myanmar, its neighbors, U.N. agencies
and NGOs. The relevant domestic legalities and international laws must also be part of this effort.
• If the current government of President Sein does allow for constitutional reform that would give Aung San a
chance to run in the 2015 election, domestic and foreign legitimacy will increase. This means the government will
be able to keep reforms going. All social, political, economic and geopolitical risks will be tackled with the help of
both internal and external actors. This is the ideal future for Myanmar in 2015.
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ATTRIBUTION:
[cover] This work, “MMF Cover” is a derivative of “Myanmar’s Complex Transformation: Prospects and Challenges” by Chatham House licensed under Creative Commons
Attribution 2.0 Generic; “8888s Anniversary” by Kwatonge under the GNU Free Documentation License; “Remise du Prix Sakharov à Aung San Suu Kyi par Martin Schultz
au Parlement européen à Strasbourg le 22 octobre 2013” by Claude TRUONG-NGOC under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license; and c.4
“Flag of Burma” by Unknown, released into the public domain; used and under C.C. by Lala Elizan
[page 7] This work, “MN1 Image” is a derivative of “2 Gs of Tweak” by Psychonaught, under Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication; and
“Location of XY (see filename) in the region” by TUBS, under Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported; used and licensed under C.C. by Lala Elizan
[page 8] “Monks Protesting in Burma” by racoles, under Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.
[page 9] This work, “MN3 Image” is a derivative of “Chinese Flag” by Mart1n under, under a Royalty Free License; “Bright USA Flag” by bosela, under a Royalty Free
License; and “Flag of Burma” by Unknown, released into the public domain; used under C.C. by Lala Elizan
[page 10] This work, “MN4 Image” is a derivative of “Remise du Prix Sakharov à Aung San Suu Kyi par Martin Schultz au Parlement européen à Strasbourg le 22
octobre 2013” by Claude TRUONG-NGOC under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license; 10.2 “Burmese Defence Services personnel (Air Force),
Naypyidaw at reception of Thai delegation” by Thai Government, under Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license; used under C.C. by Lala Elizan
Who
3D Prints
What in 2033?
Written by: Dr. Amanda Skuldt & James McGirk in consultation with
Dr. Thomas PM Barnett, Wikistratís Chief Analyst
Edited by: Steve Keller
Contact: info@wikistrat.com
June 2013