Timeline of Foreign Policy Dev PDF

6/28/13 Oxford University Press | Online Resource Centre | Timeline: The Development of Foreign Policy Analysis
Smith, Hadfield & Dunne: Foreign Policy 2e
Timeline: The Development of Foreign Policy Analysis
1950s-1960s The Origin of Foreign Policy Analysis

Foreign Policy Analysis within the field of International Relations is built upon three paradigmatic works of the
late 1950s and early 1960s, as listed below. The message of these three paradigmatic works persuaded
scholars that the particularities of the human beings making national foreign policy were vitally important to
understanding foreign policy choice.
Three Paradigmatic Works
1. Decision Making as an Approach to the Study of International Politics by Richard Snyder, Henry Bruck, and
Burton Sapin (1954). In this work, Snyder and his colleagues inspired researchers to look below the nation-
state level to the actual players involved.
2. 'Pre-theories and Theories of Foreign Policy' by James Rosenau, in R. B. Farrell (ed.) Approaches in
Comparative and International Politics (1966). Rosenau encouraged the development of actor-specific theory,
by underscoring the need to integrate information at several levels of analysis, from individual leaders to the
international system, in order to understand foreign policy.
3. Man-Milieu Relationship Hypotheses in the Context of International Politics by Margaret and Harold Sprout
(1956). The Sprouts argued that one needed to look at the 'psycho-milieu' of the individuals and groups making
the foreign policy decision. That is, the international and operational environment or context as it is perceived
and interpreted by decision-makers.
1960s-1980s The First Period in the Evolution of Foreign Policy Analysis

This period was a time of great intellectual effort and excitement, marked by path-breaking work in
conceptualization, development of actor-specific theory at various levels of analysis, and methodological
explanation.
Classic Foreign Policy Analysis Scholarship
a. Group Decision Making

The process and structure of groups making foreign policy decisions is analysed. The groups that were studied
ranged in size from very small groups to large organizations and bureaucracies.
b. Small Group Dynamics

Social psychologists explored the unique dynamics of decision-making in small groups. This research was
carried into foreign policy analysis: it was discovered that the motivation to maintain group consensus and
personal acceptance by the group could deteriorate decision-making quality.
c. Organizational Process and Bureaucratic Politics

Researchers began to study the influence of organization process and bureaucratic politics on foreign policy
decision-making. Organizations and bureaucracies put their own survival at the top of their list of priorities; the
organization will jealously guard and seek to increase its turf (relative influence) and strength. It was found that
the ulterior objectives of foreign policy decision 'players' influenced their decision-making.
Comparative Foreign Policy
The sub-field of Comparative Foreign Policy developed as a response to James Rosenau's challenge to build a
cross-national and multi-level theory of foreign policy. Foreign policy behaviour, as disparate as a war, a treaty,
global.oup.com/uk/orc/politics/foreign/smith_foreign2e/01student/timeline/ 1/3
cross-national and multi-level theory of foreign policy. Foreign policy behaviour, as disparate as a war, a treaty,
or a state visit, could now be compared and aggregated. Data was collected on a variety of possible
explanatory factors to determine patterns by which these independent variables were correlated. Researchers
hoped to emerge with a grand unified theory of foreign policy behaviour applicable to all nations and time
periods.
a. Events Data
The collection of 'events data' was used to set up early warning systems that would alert policy makers to crises
in the making around the world. Computerized decision aids and analysis packages began to appear.
b. Integrated Explanations
Research aimed at integrated multilevel explanations. Independent variables at several levels of analysis were
linked by theoretical propositions to types of foreign policy behaviour.
The Psychological and Societal Milieux of Foreign Policy Decision Making
Increasing attention was directed to the mind of the foreign policy decision-maker. The societal context in
which the decision-maker operates is shaped by several factors such as culture, history, geography,
economics, political institutions, ideology, and demographics. Within this societal context, the individual mind is
unique in its own personal beliefs, attitudes, values, experiences, emotions, traits, style, memory, national, and
self-conceptions. To better understand foreign policy, researchers directed their attention to the socio-
psychological context of the decision-maker.
a. Individual Characteristics
Political psychology was employed to understand the personal characteristics of the decision-maker. Under
certain stressful conditions these individual characteristics would become crucial in understanding foreign policy
decisions. Efforts were made to categorize decision-makers according to their foreign policy dispositions.
In addition, the role of perceptions and images in foreign policy was also an important research agenda during
this time. Misperception in foreign policy situations could have grave consequences, and was furnished by the
rampant use of stereotypical images with reference to the 'enemy'.
Research was conducted on 'cognitive constraints', including cognitive bias, heuristic error, the motivation of
leaders, cognitive maps, scripts, and schemas, cognitive style, and the life experience of decision makers.
b. National and Societal Characteristics

The decision-maker's perception of its nation's 'role' in the international arena began to be studied. Once a
'national role conception' was perceived, decision-makers could make their decisions to fit according to the
conceptual mould.
In addition, the study of culture as an independent variable affecting foreign policy came to the forefront;
analysts considered that the very process of policymaking might be stamped by one's cultural heritage and
socialisation.
1980s-present Contemporary Foreign Policy Analysis

The end of the Cold War brought with it a renewed interest in actor-specific theory. An intuitive understanding
of this event involves delving into the individual actors themselves: the personalities of the leaders, the activities
of various actors, the struggle between domestic players, and so on. From the late 1980s to the present, foreign
policy researchers have focused on developing the following themes outlined below.
Theory Development in Decision Making
a. Construction of Meaning and Framing of Situations by Human Agents in International Relations

Human agents interpret situations and problems differently, due to the various personal backgrounds, which
influence reasoning. Researchers have articulated a two-step decision process: in the first step, options that
would translate into serious political loss are weeded out; in the second step, alternatives are analysed against
one another.
b. Persuasion and Diffusion Undertaken by Framing/Meaning Entrepreneurs within IR; Analysis of Interaction
between Competing Entrepreneurs
Representations formed by human agents in foreign policy must first be diffused to others before collective
action can follow. The process by which individual representations are 'diffused' onto others has been under
study. Technology has been useful here, by providing simulation exercises to study how persuasion occurs.
c. Change and Learning by Human Agents in International Relations
Using cognitive mapping techniques, researchers have been able to detect new knowledge structures within
the minds of decision-makers; this 'social learning' may enhance understanding between different actors and
even facilitate successful negotiations between antagonists.
d. The Study of Human Agents as They Interact in Groups in International Relations

Decision-making in small and large groups remains the subject of ongoing research. Recent works on
bureaucratic and organisational influences apply agent-orientated perspectives to explain institutional
innovation or variations in foreign policy decisions.
Theory Development Regarding Leader Characteristics
a. Leader Assessment Frameworks

A more systematic tool has been constructed for assessing a leader's foreign policy orientation. Technology
has allowed for a resurgence of operational code analysis: no longer an extremely laborious or time-consuming
task, automated content analysis has enabled researchers to perform speedy and accurate analyses of leader
characteristics.
b. New Frontiers: Neuroscience, Emotion, and Embodiment

Research in the field of neuroscience is slowly filtering into foreign policy analysis. Neuroscience, with its
discoveries on the workings of the human mind, is poised to contribute largely to our understanding of human
decision-making. The effect of emotions, pain, illness, the genetically determined 'happiness set-point' and
other factors of the human body all have implications on decision-making, and therefore also for foreign policy
analysis.
Theory Development Concerning Culture, Identity, and Social Groups
a. Construction of National Role Conception Identity by Human Agents within the Nation
Questions of national identity formation are still largely furnished by research on national role conception. More
recently, eclectic methods such as discourse analysis, process-tracing and computational modelling have
helped to trace the origin and evolution of identities in conflict.
b. Horizon/Template Analysis
Distinctive patterns of horizon visualisation have been discerned in different cultures, which suggests that an
understanding of 'who we are' plays into the understanding of 'what it is we do'.
c. The Influence of Societal Groups

The effect of various social groups on foreign policy behaviour is under study. Also explored has been the
effect of media, and the manner in which media influences the domestic political context of foreign policy
decision-making (eg. the so-called 'CNN-effect').
Copyright Oxford University Press, 2013. All Rights Reserved.

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6/28/13 Oxford University Press | Online Resource Centre | Timeline: The Development of Foreign Policy Analysis

Smith, Hadfield & Dunne: Foreign Policy 2e

Timeline: The Development of Foreign Policy Analysis

1950s-1960s The Origin of Foreign Policy Analysis

Three Paradigmatic Works

1960s-1980s The First Period in the Evolution of Foreign Policy Analysis

Classic Foreign Policy Analysis Scholarship

a. Group Decision Making

b. Small Group Dynamics

c. Organizational Process and Bureaucratic Politics

Comparative Foreign Policy

The Psychological and Societal Milieux of Foreign Policy Decision Making

b. National and Societal Characteristics

1980s-present Contemporary Foreign Policy Analysis

Theory Development in Decision Making

a. Construction of Meaning and Framing of Situations by Human Agents in International Relations

c. Change and Learning by Human Agents in International Relations

d. The Study of Human Agents as They Interact in Groups in International Relations

Theory Development Regarding Leader Characteristics

a. Leader Assessment Frameworks

b. New Frontiers: Neuroscience, Emotion, and Embodiment

Theory Development Concerning Culture, Identity, and Social Groups

c. The Influence of Societal Groups

Copyright Oxford University Press, 2013. All Rights Reserved.

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