Populism On The March
Populism On The March
Populism On The March
On every major
Populism on issue affecting this country, the people
D
onald Trumps admirers and Historically, populism has come in
critics would probably agree on left- and right-wing variants, and both
one thing: he is different. One are flourishing today, from Bernie Sanders
of his chief Republican supporters, Newt to Trump, and from Syriza, the leftist
Gingrich, describes him as a unique, party currently in power in Greece, to the
extraordinary experience. And of course, National Front, in France. But todays
in some wayshis celebrity, his flexibility left-wing populism is neither distinc-
with the factsTrump is unusual. But tive nor particularly puzzling. Western
in an important sense, he is not: Trump is countries have long had a far left that
part of a broad populist upsurge run- critiques mainstream left-wing parties
ning through the Western world. It can as too market-oriented and accommodat-
be seen in countries of widely varying ing of big business. In the wake of the
circumstances, from prosperous Sweden Cold War, center-left parties moved much
to crisis-ridden Greece. In most, popu- closer toward the centerthink of Bill
lism remains an opposition movement, Clinton in the United States and Tony
although one that is growing in strength; Blair in the United Kingdomthus
in others, such as Hungary, it is now opening up a gap that could be filled
the reigning ideology. But almost every- by populists. That gap remained empty,
where, populism has captured the however, until the financial crisis of
publics attention. 20078. The subsequent downturn caused
What is populism? It means differ- households in the United States to lose
ent things to different groups, but all trillions in wealth and led unemployment
versions share a suspicion of and hostil- in countries such as Greece and Spain
ity toward elites, mainstream politics, to rise to 20 percent and above, where
and established institutions. Populism it has remained ever since. It is hardly
sees itself as speaking for the forgotten surprising that following the worst
ordinary person and often imagines economic crisis since the Great Depres-
itself as the voice of genuine patriotism. sion, the populist left experienced a
The only antidote to decades of ruinous surge of energy.
rule by a small handful of elites is a bold The new lefts agenda is not so differ-
ent from the old lefts. If anything, in
FAREED ZAKARIA is the host of Fareed many European countries, left-wing
Zakaria GPS, on CNN. Some of the ideas in this
essay draw on his columns in The Washington populist parties are now closer to the
Post. Follow him on Twitter @FareedZakaria. center than they were 30 years ago.
November/December 2016 9
Fareed Zakaria
Syriza, for example, is not nearly as five percent of those polled said they
socialist as was the main Greek socialist would. Trumpism, Gest concluded, would
party, pasok, in the 1970s and 1980s. outlast Trump.
In power, it has implemented market
reforms and austerity, an agenda with WHY THE WEST, AND WHY NOW?
only slight variations from that of the In searching for the sources of the new
governing party that preceded it. Were populism, one should follow Sherlock
Podemos, Spains version of Syriza, to Holmes advice and pay attention to the
come to powerand it gained only dog that didnt bark. Populism is largely
about 20 percent of the vote in the coun- absent in Asia, even in the advanced
trys most recent electionit would economies of Japan and South Korea. It
probably find itself in a similar position. is actually in retreat in Latin America,
Right-wing populist parties, on the where left-wing populists in Argentina,
other hand, are experiencing a new and Bolivia, and Venezuela ran their countries
striking rise in country after country into the ground over the last decade.
across Europe. Frances National Front In Europe, however, not only has there
is positioned to make the runoff in next been a steady and strong rise in populism
years presidential election. Austrias almost everywhere, but it has deeper
Freedom Party almost won the presi- roots than one might imagine. In an
dency this year and still might, since the important research paper for Harvards
final round of the election was annulled Kennedy School of Government, Ronald
and rescheduled for December. Not Inglehart and Pippa Norris calculate
every nation has succumbed to the that since the 1960s, populist parties
temptation. Spain, with its recent of the right have doubled their share of
history of right-wing dictatorship, has the vote in European countries and
shown little appetite for these kinds of populists of the left have seen more
parties. But Germany, a country that than a fivefold increase. By the second
has grappled with its history of ex- decade of this century, the average share
tremism more than any other, now has a of seats for right-wing populist parties
right-wing populist party, Alternative for had risen to 13.7 percent, and it had
Germany, growing in strength. And of risen to 11.5 percent for left-wing ones.
course, there is Trump. While many The most striking findings of the paper
Americans believe that Trump is a are about the decline of economics as the
singular phenomenon, representative of pivot of politics. The way politics are
no larger, lasting agenda, accumulating thought about today is still shaped by the
evidence suggests otherwise. The political basic twentieth-century left-right divide.
scientist Justin Gest adapted the basic Left-wing parties are associated with
platform of the far-right British National increased government spending, a larger
Party and asked white Americans whether welfare state, and regulations on business.
they would support a party dedicated to Right-wing parties have wanted limited
stopping mass immigration, providing government, fewer safety nets, and more
American jobs to American workers, laissez-faire policies. Voting patterns tradi-
preserving Americas Christian heritage tionally reinforced this ideological divide,
and stopping the threat of Islam. Sixty- with the working class opting for the left
10 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Populism on the March
Inglehart and Norris also analyzed party to Poland, Sweden to Greece, have all
platforms in recent decades and found seen a decline in their fertility rates. The
that since the 1980s, economic issues have extent varies, but everywhere, families are
become less important. Noneconomic smaller, fewer workers are entering the
issuessuch as those related to gender, labor force, and the ranks of retirees swell
race, the environmenthave greatly by the year. This has a fundamental and
increased in importance. negative impact on economic growth.
What can explain this shift, and why That slower growth is coupled with
is it happening almost entirely in the challenges that relate to the new global
November/December 2016 11
Fareed Zakaria
12 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Populism on the March
United States and Blair in the United men, was traumatized by what it saw as
Kingdom. And although politicians on an assault on the civilization and values
the right continue to make the laissez- it cherished and had grown up with.
faire case today, it is largely theoretical. In These people began to vote for parties
power, especially after the global financial and candidates that they believed would,
crisis, conservatives have accommodated above all, hold at bay these forces of
themselves to the mixed economy, as cultural and social change.
liberals have to the market. The differ- In Europe, that led to the rise of new
ence between Blairs policies and David parties. In the United States, it meant
Camerons was real, but in historical that Republicans began to vote more on
perspective, it was rather marginal. the basis of these cultural issues than on
Trumps plans for the economy, mean- economic ones. The Republican Party had
while, include massive infrastructure lived uneasily as a coalition of disparate
spending, high tariffs, and a new entitle- groups for decades, finding a fusion
ment for working mothers. He has between cultural and economic conserva-
employed the usual rhetoric about tives and foreign policy hawks. But then,
slashing regulations and taxes, but what the Democrats under Clinton moved to
he has actually promisedlet alone what the center, bringing many professionals
he could actually deliverhas been less and white-collar workers into the partys
different from Hillary Clintons agenda fold. Working-class whites, on the other
than one might assume. In fact, he has hand, found themselves increasingly
boasted that his infrastructure program alienated by the cosmopolitan Democrats
would be twice as large as hers. and more comfortable with a Republican
This convergence in economic policy Party that promised to reflect their values
has contributed to a situation in which on the three Gsguns, God, and gays.
the crucial difference between the left In President Barack Obamas first term, a
and the right today is cultural. Despite new movement, the Tea Party, bubbled
what one sometimes hears, most analyses up on the right, seemingly as a reaction
of voters for Brexit, Trump, or populist to the governments rescue efforts in
candidates across Europe find that response to the financial crisis. A compre-
economic factors (such as rising inequality hensive study by Theda Skocpol and
or the effects of trade) are not the most Vanessa Williamson, however, based on
powerful drivers of their support. Cultural hundreds of interviews with Tea Party
values are. The shift began, as Inglehart followers, concluded that their core
and Norris note, in the 1970s, when young motivations were not economic but
people embraced a postmaterialist politics cultural. As the virulent hostility to
centered on self-expression and issues Obama has shown, race also plays a
related to gender, race, and the environ- role in this cultural reaction.
ment. They challenged authority and For a few more years, the conservative
established institutions and norms, and establishment in Washington remained
they were largely successful in introduc- focused on economics, not least because
ing new ideas and recasting politics and its most important financial supporters
society. But they also produced a counter- tended toward libertarianism. But behind
reaction. The older generation, particularly the scenes, the gap between it and the
November/December 2016 13
Fareed Zakaria
partys base was growing, and Trumps of people from different lands and alien
success has brought that division into cultures. In 2015, there were around
the open. Trumps political genius was 250 million international migrants and
to realize that many Republican voters 65 million forcibly displaced people
were unmoved by the standard party worldwide. Europe has received the
gospel of free trade, low taxes, deregula- largest share, 76 million immigrants,
tion, and entitlement reform but would and it is the continent with the great-
respond well to a different appeal based est anxiety. That anxiety is proving a
on cultural fears and nationalist sentiment.
better guide to voters choices than
issues such as inequality or slow growth.
NATION VS. MIGRATION As a counterexample, consider Japan.
Unsurprisingly, the initial and most The country has had 25 years of sluggish
important issue Trump exploited was growth and is aging even faster than
immigration. On many other social others, but it doesnt have many immi-
issues, such as gay rights, even right- grantsand in part as a result, it has
wing populists are divided and recog- not caught the populist fever.
nize that the tide is against them. Few Levels of public anxiety are not
conservative politicians today argue for directly related to the total number of
the recriminalization of homosexuality, immigrants in a country or even to the
for instance. But immigration is an concentration of immigrants in different
explosive issue on which populists are areas, and polls show some surprising
united among themselves and opposed findings. The French, for example, are
to their elite antagonists. relatively less concerned about the link
There is a reality behind the rhetoric, between refugees and terrorism than
for we are indeed living in an age of mass other Europeans are, and negative
migration. The world has been trans- attitudes toward Muslims have fallen
formed by the globalization of goods, substantially in Germany over the past
services, and information, all of which decade. Still, there does seem to be a
have produced their share of pain and correlation between public fears and the
rejection. But we are now witnessing pace of immigration. This suggests that
the globalization of people, and public the crucial element in the mix is politics:
reaction to that is stronger, more vis- countries where mainstream politicians
ceral, and more emotional. Western have failed to heed or address citizens
populations have come to understand concerns have seen rising populism driven
and accept the influx of foreign goods, by political entrepreneurs fanning fear
ideas, art, and cuisine, but they are far and latent prejudice. Those countries
less willing to understand and accept the that have managed immigration and
influx of foreigners themselvesand integration better, in contrast, with
today there are many of those to notice. leadership that is engaged, confident,
For the vast majority of human and practical, have not seen a rise in
history, people lived, traveled, worked, populist anger. Canada is the role model
and died within a few miles of their in this regard, with large numbers of
birthplace. In recent decades, however, immigrants and a fair number of refugees
Western societies have seen large influxes and yet little backlash.
14 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Populism on the March
November/December 2016 15
The contents of Foreign Affairs are protected by copyright. 2004 Council on Foreign
Relations, Inc., all rights reserved. To request permission to reproduce additional copies of the
article(s) you will retrieve, please contact the Permissions and Licensing office of Foreign
Affairs.