Deloitte Uk M and A Index q4 2015
Deloitte Uk M and A Index q4 2015
Deloitte Uk M and A Index q4 2015
2016: Opportunities
amidst divergence
Q4 2015
Contents
Key points
Corporate barometer
11
Deal corridors
12
Geographies
13
Sectors
16
Charts we like
22
Contacts
Iain Macmillan
Managing Partner,
Global M&A Services
020 7007 2975
imacmillan@deloitte.co.uk
Sriram Prakash
Global Lead M&A Insight
020 7303 3155
sprakash@deloitte.co.uk
Authors and
contributors
About The Deloitte M&A Index
The Deloitte M&A Index is a forward-looking indicator that forecasts future
global M&A deal volumes and identifies the factors influencing conditions for
dealmaking.
The Deloitte M&A Index is created from a composite of weighted market
indicators from four major data sets: macroeconomic and key market
indicators, funding and liquidity conditions, company fundamentals, valuations.
Each quarter, these variables are tested for their statistical significance and
relative relationships to M&A volumes. As a result, we have a dynamic and
evolving model which allows Deloitte to identify the factors impacting
dealmaking and enable us to project future M&A deal volumes. The Deloitte
M&A Index has an accuracy rate of over 90% dating back to Q1 2008.
In this publication, references to Deloitte are references to Deloitte LLP, the UK
member firm of DTTL.
Key points
We are expecting 2015 to end with over $4 trillion worth of deals
making it the highest for deal values since 2007. However, on a lasttwelve-months (LTM) basis, there was a slowdown in the volume of
transactions in the second half of 2015.
Cross-border deals are a major feature of this M&A wave. More than
$1 trillion worth of cross-border deals have been announced so far
this year, of which a third were in the vibrant deal corridor between
North America and Europe. In addition, new corridors have started
emerging between Asia and Europe, led by China and Japan, and are
likely to continue in 2016.
Our analysis shows that companies are committing to deliver
annualised cost synergies that represent, on average, 3-4% of the
transaction value. If all announced cost synergies are realised and
sustained, they could add an estimated $1.5-1.9 trillion to the value
of these companies. Therefore delivering these synergies will be high
on boardroom agendas.
The threat of disruptive innovation is impacting the traditional
products and markets of many companies. In response they are
launching venture funds to seek and invest in new sources of
innovation, which could lead to smaller, but more strategic deals.
As this record-breaking year draws to a close, concerns over global
growth are back, along with divergence in economic and monetary
policies. Looking ahead, we expect such divergence to create M&A
opportunities and define dealmaking in 2016.
$4 + trillion
$3.3trilliion
2015
2014
1/3rd of
cross-border
deals are
between
N. America
and Europe
The size of the integration prize
Realising all cost
synergies could
add an estimated
$1.5-1.9 trillion
to value of
companies
up to
$1.5-$1.9
trillion
Economic growth
Monetary policy
Corporate performance
Currency fluctuations
Q4 2015 M&A
deal forecast
High: 11,600
Mid: 11,300
Low: 11,000
11,500
11,000
10,500
10,000
9,500
9,000
8,500
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015
Deloitte M&A Index (projections)
M&A deal volume (actuals)
Last twelve months deal volumes
45,000
Q4 2015 M&A
deal forecast
40,000
35,000
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015
2009
2010
Eurozone
2011
US
2012
UK
2013
China
India
50
48
46
44
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Note: Global Trade = Sum of exports and imports by OECD countries in US$;
GDP = Sum of nominal GDP of OECD countries in US$
Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
6%
250
5%
200
100
3%
50
0
2%
Basis points
150
4%
-50
1%
-100
0%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-150
$ trn, trn
4
3
2
1
0
2003 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Central bank assets for euro area (11-19 countries)
All Federal Reserve banks total assets
Source: Federal Reserve
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2012
Europe
2013
US
2014
2015 YTD
Rest of world
Figure 7. STOXX Europe 600 Index and S&P 500 Index normalised
performance, December 2005 to November 2015
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Dec
05
Dec
06
Dec
07
Dec
08
Dec
09
Dec
10
Dec
11
Dec
12
Dec
13
Dec
14
Nov
15
Figure 8. STOXX Europe 600 Index and S&P 500 Index constituents
average net profit margin (%), 2000-14
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
S&P 500
STOXX Europe 600
Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from Bloomberg
US:
24.5 on average
27x
25x
23x
21x
Europe:
22.2 on average
19x
Asia Pacific:
21.7 on average
17x
15x
2000
US
2001
2002
Europe
2003
2004
Asia-Pacific
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Average
Figure 10. Cash reserves of the non-financial constituents of the S&P Global 1200 ($bn), 2008-14
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2008
Asia-Pacific
2009
2010
Europe
North America
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
YTD
$35.5bn
$10.7bn
$8bn
$2.7bn
2009
Europe
2015 YTD
2009
2015 YTD
North America
Figure 12. Chinas disclosed M&A deal values ($bn) and GDP growth (%),
2000-Q3 2015 LTM
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
Q3 2015
LTM
GDP growth %
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from Thomson One Banker and Economist
Intelligence Unit
$81.4bn
$56.4bn
$46bn
$10.7bn
2009
2015 YTD
2009
Outbound
2015 YTD
Domestic
Figure 14. Corporate earnings and cash reserves of the constituents of the
Nikkei 225 Index ($bn), 2000-14
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Manufacturing
4.2%
Consumer Business
3.7%
3.5%
3.3%
Financial Services
2.9%
2.9%
Professional Services
Real Estate
3.29%
Average
announced
synergies of
deal value
1.9%
1.4%
upside
Acquisition
premium
$4.9trn
disclosed
deal value
Target
value
before M&A
$1.5-$1.9trn value
created due to synergies
$200-$250bn
integration costs
Target
value
before M&A
Corporate barometer
Analysis of S&P Global 1200 company data
Despite the resurgence in M&A, the average
cash in hand per company increased from
$6.61 billion in Q3 2014 to $6.70 billion in
Q3 2015.
The average earnings per share (EPS) decreased
from $0.92 in Q3 2014 to $0.72 in Q3 2015.
The Q3 2015 revenues declined by 9.5
per cent compared to Q3 2014 revenues.
In contrast, Q3 2014 revenues were one per
cent higher than for the same quarter of 2013.
The free cash flow for the firm (FCFF) across the
S&P Global 1200 declined from $624.68 million
in Q3 2014 to $592.6 million in Q3 2015.
The average dividend payments per company
increased from $258.1 million in Q3 2014 to
$260.76 million in Q3 2015, continuing the
trend of returning cash to shareholders.
Average capital expenditure per company fell
from $454.5 million to $404.87 million, largely
as a result of the slowdown in capex of the E&R
constituents.
Finally, average net earnings have declined from
$524.9 million in Q3 2014 to $392.52 million
in Q3 2015.
Figure 16. Company fundamentals of the constituents of the S&P Global 1200:
Q3 2014 vs Q3 2015 average
Average cash in hand ($bn)
6.70
10
6.61
Average EPS ($)
0.72
1.0
0.92
Year-on-year average revenue growth (%)
-9.5%
10%
-10%
1.0%
Average dividend paid ($m)
260.76
300
100
258.1
Average capital expenditure ($m)
404.87
500
454.5
Average free cash flow for the firm (FCFF) ($m)
592.60
800
624.68
Average net income ($m)
392.52
800
524.9
= Q3 2015 Average
= Q3 2014 Average
Deal corridors
The US and UK lead cross-border M&A
Cross-border M&A has been one of the key features of 2015. So far this year $1.07 trillion in cross-border deals have been
announced and this includes three of the ten largest deals in 2015.
Europe has been at the centre of cross-border deals, with European companies participating in 53% of all announced deals.
The North America-Europe deal corridor has dominated, worth $311 billion. US companies have led the way, having announced
$114 billion worth of deals in Europe, of which $44 billion are in the UK.
So far this year, the growth markets nations4 have announced $49.6 billion of acquisitions in G7 nations, whereas the
G7 nations have announced only $30.7 billion in M&A deals in growth markets, the lowest in over a decade.
Cross-border deal flow is expected to be a key theme in the coming years, as major economies strike agreements and alliances
to bolster trade. For instance the recently agreed Trans-Pacific Partnership between 12 Pacific-Rim countries, including the US,
Japan, Canada and Australia, is the biggest global trade agreement in two decades.
Figure 17. Cross-border deal values by target region ($bn), 2015 YTD
Inbound to Europe
North America: $150.9bn
APAC: $68.1bn
Europe to UK
$207.9bn
Japan to
North America
$26.4bn
China to
Europe
$35.5bn
UK to US
$33.8bn
US to Europe
$114.1bn
US to APAC
$22.5bn
Inbound to North America
Europe: $160.5bn
MEA: $48.7bn
APAC: $56.9bn
Inbound to Asia-Pacific
North America: $31.4bn
Europe: $9.1bn
MEA: $10.5bn
Note: 2015 YTD refers to 16 November 2015. APAC refers to Asia-Pacific; MEA refers to Africa/Middle East
Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from Thomson One Banker
Figure 18. Cross border M&A deal values by target sector ($bn), 2013-Q3 2015 LTM
11
173
148
101
158
166
113
120
41
283
179
155
141
114
Consumer
Business
Energy &
Resources
Financial
Services
Life
Sciences
& Healthcare
Manufacturing
Professional
Services
2014
113
179
Real
Estate
Telecoms,
Media
& Technology
Q3
2015
LTM
Geographies
Overview
We are expecting this year to end with over $4 trillion worth of announced deals. The majority of the deals have been in
North America, while Asia-Pacific overtook Europe for the first time.
Figure 19. Global disclosed deal values by region of acquirer and target ($bn),
2013-15 YTD
Total deal values by target region ($bn)
Europe
North
America
South
America
1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800
2013
2014
600
400
200
200
400
600
2015 YTD
Figure 20. Total disclosed deal values in North America ($bn), 2010-15 YTD
2,000
Total disclosed deal values ($bn)
North America
So far this year North American companies have
announced more than $2.0 trillion worth of deals,
surpassing the 2014 figure of $1.7 trillion. This
is largely down to the resurgence in domestic
M&A in the US, where currently $1.25 trillion
worth of deals have been announced, the highest
in 15 years. The US domestic M&A market
benefitted from the boost falling energy prices
gave to consumer spending.
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
714
906
759
940
116
159
143
123
2011
169
142
2012
113
90
2013
400
200
0
2010
1280
1359
213
195
231
268
2014
2015 YTD
Geographies
Europe
So far this year almost $1.1 trillion worth of
deals have been announced involving European
companies, surpassing the $1.07 trillion
announced for the whole of 2014.
Figure 21. Total disclosed deal values in Europe ($bn), 2010-15 YTD
1,200
1,000
800
600
510
664
206
186
212
237
2014
2015 YTD
597
492
417
400
200
652
174
115
122
118
167
181
97
118
2010
2011
2012
2013
Figure 22. Total disclosed deal values in Asia-Pacific ($bn), 2010-15 YTD
1,200
1,000
800
851
600
400
200
0
459
132
75
2010
673
429
417
465
117
63
2011
115
55
2012
84
52
2013
112
67
2014
134
58
2015 YTD
Asia-Pacific
Domestic deals in Asia-Pacific have been the
highest in over a decade, totaling $851 billion
and largely led by China. While we expect the
Chinese domestic M&A market to slow down
in light of lower economic growth, outbound
investment will continue as Chinese companies
seek new markets.
M&A activity of Indian companies in value terms
has grown 6.1% year on year during the first
three-quarters of 2015, led largely by the return
of private equity deals and an increase in
cross-border deals by Indian companies.
The weak Australian dollar has given a boost to
inbound M&A into Australia.
Geographies
Figure 23. Total disclosed deal values in the Middle East and Africa ($bn),
2010-15 YTD
120
Total disclosed deal values ($bn)
100
80
33
37
31
60
26
34
26
35
68
40
29
20
0
17
38
2010
16
22
2011
2012
28
2013
20
16
13
2014
2015 YTD
Figure 24. Total disclosed deal values in South America ($bn), 2010-15 YTD
250
Total disclosed deal values ($bn)
South America
The slowdown in China has hit the commodity
exporting nations of South and Latin America
hard. Indeed, M&A activity is the lowest since
2005and Brazil, the largest economy in the
region, is currently in recession.
200
150
100
50
0
124
21
80
2010
66
15
48
2011
69
56
13
15
36
31
2012
2013
52
19
43
2014
27
19
25
2015 YTD
Sectors
Figure 25. Global disclosed deal values for consumer business subsectors as a
target ($bn), 2008-Q3 2015 LTM
Total disclosed deal values ($bn)
800
30
700
25
600
20
500
15
400
300
10
200
0
Q3 2015
LTM
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
Retail
Food and Beverage
Personal & Household goods
Recreation & Leisure
Transportation & Infrastructure
Employment Services
PE deal multiples
100
Consumer business
So far this year $655.5 billion worth of deals
have been announced, of which $258 billion
have been cross-border in nature, largely driven
by US and European companies.
Financial performance of the S&P Global 1200 Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary Indices constituents
Q4 2014
Q2 2015
$762.7bn
$710.7bn
Consumer
Business
Total revenues
Cash and
ST investments
2014
$7,088.6bn
2015 LTM
$7,159.8bn
Total debt
$328.4bn
$116.2bn
$153.8bn
Cash spent
on M&A
$171.4bn
$2,422.9bn $2,487.1bn
Note: LTM refers to the last twelve months from the latest reported date
Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from S&P Capital IQ
$333.0bn
$169.9bn
Common
dividends paid
Capital
expenditure
$156.3bn
$167.2bn
Share
repurchases
Sectors
800
30
700
25
600
20
500
15
400
300
10
200
5
100
0
Pipeline
Power
Q3 2015
LTM
2014
2013
2012
2011
0
2010
2009
Figure 26. Global disclosed deal values for Energy & Resources subsectors as
a target ($bn), 2008-Q3 2015 LTM
2008
Others
Q4 2014
Q2 2015
Total revenues
$4,201.7bn
2014
Energy &
Resources
$315.9bn
Cash and
$324.9bn ST investments
2015 LTM
$3,122.1bn
Total debt
$543.5bn
$33.6bn
$1,143.2bn $1,178.4bn
Cash spent
on M&A
$115.0bn
Note: LTM refers to the last twelve months from the latest reported date
Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from S&P Capital IQ
$456.2bn
$36.8bn
$99.7bn
Common
dividends paid
Capital
expenditure
$53.8bn
$27.2bn
Share
repurchases
Sectors
Figure 27. Global disclosed deal values for manufacturing subsectors as a
target ($bn), 2008-Q3 2015 LTM
Total disclosed deal values ($bn)
400
30
350
25
300
20
250
15
200
150
10
100
5
50
0
Q3 2015
LTM
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
Manufacturing
So far this year $297 billion worth of deals have
been announced, keeping pace with 2014.
There has been a sharp increase in deal values in
the aerospace and defence sectors as well as in
the paper and forest products sectors.
Q4 2014
Manufacturing
$446.2bn
Q2 2015
Total revenues
2014
$3,377.0bn
2015 LTM
$3,354.1bn
Total debt
$49.6bn
$61.0bn
Cash spent
on M&A
$157.8bn
$175.5bn
Capital
expenditure
$1,565.2bn $1,572.6bn
$79.6bn
Note: LTM refers to the last twelve months from the latest reported date
Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from S&P Capital IQ
$80.4bn
Common
dividends paid
$86.7bn
$99.9bn
Share
repurchases
Sectors
Technology, media and telecoms (TMT)
TMT companies have accounted for 30% of
the mega deals announced this year. So far
this year, $928 billion worth of deals have
been announced, significantly higher than the
$581 billion announced during the whole of
2014. This has largely been led by the continued
convergence and consolidation in the sector.
However, Q3 2015 LTM volumes are 11.9%
higher than in the preceding period.
Asia has emerged as a major player. So far this
year $224.3 billion worth of deals have been
announced with Asian companies as targets,
a significant increase over the $103.3 billion
announced in 2014.
Figure 28. Global disclosed deal values for TMT subsectors as a target ($bn),
2008-Q3 2015 LTM
Total disclosed deal values ($bn)
1000
35
30
800
25
600
20
400
15
10
200
Telecom
Media
Technology
Q3 2015
LTM
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
PE deal multiples
Financial performance of the S&P Global 1200 Information Technology Index constituents
Q4 2014
Q2 2015
$732.2bn
$775.0bn
Technology,
Media & Telecoms
Total revenues
Cash and
ST investments
2014
$2,029.6bn
2015 LTM
$2,056.1bn
$67.8bn
$61.1bn
Cash spent
on M&A
Total debt
$485.9bn
$550.2bn
$126.0bn
$135.6bn
Capital
expenditure
$160.7bn
Note: LTM refers to the last twelve months from the latest reported date
Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from S&P Capital IQ
$152.7bn
Share
repurchases
$68.5bn
$74.0bn
Common
dividends paid
$154.7bn
$156.7bn
R&D
expense
Sectors
Figure 29. Global disclosed deal values for LSHC subsectors as a target
($bn), 2008-Q3 2015 LTM
Total disclosed deal values ($bn)
600
35
500
30
25
400
20
300
15
200
10
Pharmaceuticals
Biotechnology
Healthcare
Q3 2015
LTM
2014
2013
2012
2011
0
2010
0
2009
5
2008
100
PE deal multiples
Financial performance of the S&P Global 1200 Health Care Index constituents
Q4 2014
Q2 2015
Total revenues
$1,859.7bn
2014
LIfe Sciences &
Healthcare
$385.7bn
2015 LTM
$1,971.9bn
$97.2bn
$235.0bn
Cash spent
on M&A
Total debt
$654.2bn
$773.0bn
$49.1bn
$49.8bn
Capital
expenditure
$76.1bn
Note: LTM refers to the last twelve months from the latest reported date
Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from S&P Capital IQ
$84.0bn
Share
repurchases
$66.8bn
$67.4bn
Common
dividends paid
$118.5bn
$121.1bn
R&D
expense
Sectors
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Insurance
Q3 2015
LTM
2014
2013
2012
2011
0
2010
2009
Figure 30. Global disclosed deal values for FSI subsectors as a target
($bn), 2008-Q3 2015 LTM
2008
Financial services
So far this year $321 billion worth of deals have
been announced. This was led by the sharp
rebound in dealmaking in the insurance sector,
where the long awaited consolidation resulted in
$98.1 billion worth of deals.
Total revenues
$4,111.2bn
2014
Financial
Services
2015 LTM
$40.6bn
$46.7bn
Cash spent
on M&A
$4,016.4bn
$167.9bn
$159.7bn
Common
dividends paid
Note: LTM refers to the last twelve months from the latest reported date
Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from S&P Capital IQ
$130.2bn
$142.9bn
Share
repurchases
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Figure 31. Global acquisition related bond issuance
($bn), 2008-15 YTD
$bn
Deal volume
300
50
250
40
200
30
150
20
100
10
50
FSI
LSHC
Mfg
2015
YTD
2014
2013
2012
E&R
Real Estate
2011
CB
2010
2009
2015
YTD
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
Source: Dealogic
2008
Prof Services
TMT
Figure 34. Capital expenditure of Stoxx Europe 600 and S&P 500
non-financial constituents ($bn), 2000-14
1200
800
1000
700
800
600
600
500
400
400
200
300
08
09
10
Consumer business
LSHC
Real Estate
11
E&R
12
TMT
13
14
Manufacturing
200
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Stoxx Europe 600
S&P 500
Figure 35. M&A transactions flows G7 vs growth markets ($bn), Figure 36. S&P 500 geographic sources of revenue (%)
2007-15 YTD
G7 acquring into
Growth markets
growth markets
acquiring into G7
15
22.8%
YTD
US
14
13
Africa
12
Asia
11
2.6%
Europe
53.8%
10
2.7%
North America
09
(excl. US)
6.8%
08
South America
07
7.7%
Other
120 100 80 60 40 20 0
0
20
40
60
80 100
3.6%
Total disclosed deal values ($bn)
Note: The G7 comprises of Canada, France, Italy, Germany, Japan, UK and US.
The growth markets are defined as: Brazil, China (incl. Hong Kong), Czech
Republic, Egypt, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, Peru,
Philippines, Poland, Russian Federation, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey,
Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates. We define growth markets as countries
referenced in The Economist as emerging markets in 2012.
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Figure 37. Yields to maturity of investment grade and high yield
corporate bonds in euros and dollars (%), 2012-15 YTD
10%
60%
55%
8%
50%
6%
45%
4%
40%
2%
35%
0%
2012
2013
2014
30%
2015
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15E16E
Industrial (% of GDP)
Services (% of GDP)
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
140
Industrial
120
Services
100
80
60
2
40
2013
Professional
Services
Real
Estate
Life Sciences
and Healthcare
Financial
Services
Consumer
Business
0
Technology,
Media and
Telecoms
0
Manufacturing
1
Energy &
Resources
20
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15E16E17E
Chinas consumer expenditure
Japans consumer expenditure
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
Q3 2015 LTM
2014
Figure 42. Chinas outbound M&A deal values into Europe and
North America ($bn), 2005-2015 YTD
150
40
125
35
30
25
20
100
75
50
2015
YTD
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
25
15
10
5
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
YTD
Europe
North America
Note: 2015 YTD refers to 16 November 2015; China includes Hong Kong
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