NOIDA/DELHI

THE HINDU

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 16, 2012

I The Sunday Story I

15

Why has climate change been pushed off the map?

The scientic evidence points to a warming world. That would affect human health and agriculture, but at the Climate Change Conference in Doha, many rich countries baulked at strong action. India and China lead the developing world in calling for more remedial funding

Doha dithers on equity

Meena Menon

A universal pact is possible

but differentiated, responsibility was different from the Christiana Figueres rest of the world. he results of the United China stress on funds Nations climate change Finance is the core issue, as conference that closed in DoChinese delegation head Xie ha, Qatar, last week show once Zhenua kept emphasising again that the international during the talks. But the Doha negotiations are moving Gateway only urges the devel- steadily in the right direction, oped countries to scale up - but are alarmingly slow. At the heart of these negonance to reach $100 billion a year by 2020 and submit tiations is nothing less than plans by the next round of the most challenging energy talks in Poland. There also transformation the world has seems to be a complete lack of ever seen. Past energy transiambition in the second com- tions have taken a long time to mitment period of the Kyoto unfold. Firewood was manProtocol, which is now eight kinds rst energy source and years. Sunita Narain, direc- was not displaced by coal until tor-general of the Centre for the 18th century. With an inScience and Environment, creasing pace of technological adds: Doha failed because advance, it took one century the world agreed not to raise for oil to replace coal as the its level of ambition. It was primary global energy source. agreed in Bali in 2007 that the Climate change is not the only industrialised world needed motivation to move toward to cut 45 per cent below the more renewables and en1990 levels by 2020 to facil- hanced energy efficiency, but itate a temperature increase it has injected unequivocal cap of 1.5-2 C which is con- urgency into an otherwise normal evolution. sidered as safe levels. Despite the evident chalThe issue of carrying forward surplus emissions was lenge of capital stock turnover strongly objected to by Rus- in our existing energy syssia, which was unhappy with tems, time is not on our side. the proposal under the Kyoto Science tells us that global Protocol to cramp the carry- greenhouse gas emissions over of carbon credits or sur- must peak this decade and deplus allowances which it had crease rapidly thereafter. accumulated during the Pro- More importantly, peaking of tocols rst commitment pe- global emissions must occur riod. Money supply for the soon if we are to lessen human Adaptation Fund suffered costs. Global extreme weather due to the decline in the mar- events in every region of the ket prices of certied emis- world provide ample proof of sion reduction, and as a the mounting human costs, in result, $301.1 million was col- particular to the most vulnerable. lected. The U.N. is the only platWith funds dwindling, countries lobbied for a mech- form that grants all countries, anism on loss and damage large and small, access to since Cancun which nally global decision-making. The was agreed upon at Doha. shift toward low carbon reCrumbs are doled out as glob- quires global participation beal temperatures rise and the cause every single country is poorest countries face disas- already affected by climate change, and because of the ter.

he World Meteorological Organization (WMO) times the release of its provisional annual statement with the U.N. climate negotiations. This year, it dwelt on the Atlantic Basin experiencing an above-average hurricane season for a third consecutive year, with 19 storms, 10 of them achieving hurricane status, the most notable being Sandy. East Asia was severely impacted by powerful typhoons, with Sanba being the strongest in 2012, causing destruction in parts of the Philippines, Japan, and the Korean peninsula. The years 20012011 were all among the warmest on record and the WMOs statement highlighted the unprecedented melting of the Arctic Sea ice and multiple weather and climate extremes. The WMOs statement fell on deaf ears at the Doha climate talks. As 194 countries dragged on with negotiations, typhoon Bhopa was wrecking the eastern part of the Philippines. A new policy paper by Nicholas Stern and others from the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, says the overall pace of change is recklessly slow. We are acting as if change is too difficult and costly and delay is not a problem. Almost endorsing this, there was a distinct lack of urgency at the Doha talks. Inside meeting rooms, negotiators and developing countries battled to hold on to what the climate talks had delivered in the last 20 years or so. But the ground was slipping away fast. And at the end of it, the basic principles of equity and responsibility for historical emissions were threatened.

DROWNED OUT: Citizen pressure is mounting in many nations, demanding that wealthy governments led by the U.S. cut carbon emissions. PHOTO: AP
The U.S., along with Japan, objected to the equity principle under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and also to equity being the basis of future negotiations. While the Durban platform clung on to the principles of equity as enshrined under the UNFCCC, the U.S. made it clear that it was not going to accept it. The climate talks have delivered less and less since Bali where the twotrack approach was mainly geared to bringing on board the U.S, which is not part of the Kyoto Protocol. Finances, adaptation, mitigation and technology transfer were the key issues under the Bali Roadmap. India, part of the G-77 group, plus China had to object vociferously to the removal of the key pillars of the talks from the Long-term Cooperative Action plan. A Philippine delegate quipped that this was meant to be a paperless conference, not a textless one. In the end after a days delay, the Doha Climate Gateway kept the multilateral process alive but gave little in terms of nance or ambitious emission cuts. India, not too happy with the results, managed, along with G-77 plus China, to ensure that equity was the mainstay. The head of the Indian delegation, Mira Mehrishi, reiterated Indias rm commitment to the principles of equity and the need for adequate funding for the developing countries to address climate change impacts. She said the notion of equity was rooted in historical responsibility. While the U.S. has been consistently opposed to this, its climate envoy Todd Stern, in a sudden U-turn, spoke fondly of equity in an address to the highlevel segment. As talks ended, it was evident that Mr. Sterns idea of equity and common,

Governments need not be altruistic. They must act in their national interest
need to deliberately guide an accelerated global changeover. Furthermore, the scale and pace of economic development driven by technology and the free movement of capital makes global participation essential. The lowemission economies of today, even on a per capita basis, can and will become high-emission economies of tomorrow faster than was ever possible unless they are adequately supported and encouraged to engineer clean energy futures for themselves. Following important steps forward taken over the last two years at Cancun and Durban, in Doha 37 countries (all European Union members, Australia, Belarus, Croatia, Iceland, Kazakhstan, Norway, Switzerland, and Ukraine) adopted legally binding emission reduction targets bringing them collectively to a level 18 per cent below their 1990 baselines over the next eight years. The targets are underpinned by stricter accounting rules and are open to further strengthening by 2014. In addition, in Doha all countries conrmed their de-

termination to reach an agreement applicable to all by December 2015, based on the latest science. Governments are clearly steering the world toward a major transformation, but have not yet proven their intent through a robust and immediate implementation of what has already been promised. Governments must and can accelerate climate change action, not because of altruistic reasons, but because it is in their national interest to do so.

............................................................ THE CLIMATE TALKS HAVE DELIVERED LESS AND LESS SINCE THE BALI CONFERENCE ..............................................................

The signs of movement toward low-carbon are everywhere, but are still insufficient. Low-carbon must soon be the norm and not the novelty. Governments have charted the course, but they are moving slowly. None are at maximum potential. Neither is anyone else. The private sector can and should move more purposefully. The nance sector can and should invest more aggressively. Technology can and must advance more rapidly. No one is exempt from the responsibDomestic action ility, or from the opportunity, The U.N. is the venue for to contribute to the solution. global decision-making, but it We need maximum effort is not the driver of domestic from everyone. We need to decisions. Domestic interests move beyond the zero-sum in resource sustainability, sta- mentality to cooperative acbility and competitiveness are tion in pursuit of an urgent the powerful drivers of action shared objective. We need on climate change. The UN mutually reinforcing efforts process is the centre of inter- to accelerate the momentum national engagement, but it is toward a low emission econonot the circumference of ac- my. Together we can migrate tion on climate change. In re- from the politics of blame to sponse to the slow but steady the politics of opportunity. progress in international neThe 2015 agreement must gotiations, and to capitalize ensure equitable participaon the new low-carbon econo- tion of all nations and be remy, 33 countries and 18 sub- sponsive to the exigencies of national jurisdictions will science. Above all, it must be a have carbon pricing in place testament to the will of our in 2013, covering 30 per cent generation to act. Ultimately, of the global economy and 20 history will judge us on per cent of emissions. By 2011, whether we have reduced 118 countries had climate greenhouse gases enough to change legislation or renew- avoid the worst climate able energy targets, more change. The fact is that we can than double the number in do this right now in ways that 2005. There are increasing lo- both boost the economic suscal, voluntary efforts to re- tainability of everyone and at duce deforestation and the same time safeguard those emissions not covered by the most vulnerable to the adU.N. framework. In 2010, re- verse effects of climate newables accounted for 20.3 change. And that is why a uniper cent of worldwide elec- versal agreement is necessary tricity, compared to 3.4 per and possible. cent in 2006. Investment in (Christiana Figueres is Exclean energy has surpassed $1 trillion and is expected to ecutive Secretary, United Nagrow to almost $400 billion tions Framework Convention on Climate Change.) annually.

India could face............................................................ crippling heat waves

N. Gopal Raj

he warning signs are already out there. Global air and ocean temperatures have risen in response to human-driven emissions, particularly of carbon dioxide. Oceans have become more acidic and the sea level has gone up; the Arctic Sea ice has melted faster than expected; rainfall and snowfall patterns have changed; and extreme weather events seem more frequent than in the past. Such changes, with the associated consequences, are likely to worsen considerably if emissions continue unabated. At the Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen in 2009, the nations of the world pledged to avoid dangerous climate change by reducing emissions. They would ensure that the average global temperature at the end of this century did not exceed that of the pre-industrial period by

more than two degrees Celsius. But as emissions continue to soar and with no meaningful global agreement in place to drastically cut them, there is increasingly talk of a temperature rise during this century of four degrees Celsius. A four degrees Celsius world would be one of unprecedented heat waves, severe drought, and major oods in many regions, with serious impacts on ecosystems and associated services, warned a World Bank-sponsored report published last month. India has already seen its average annual surface air temperature rise by about 0.5 degrees Celsius during the past century. The warming had accelerated since 1971 and particularly so during the past decade, according to the countrys Second National Communication to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change made earlier this year.

INDIAS AVERAGE ANNUAL SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE MAY GO UP BY BETWEEN FOUR DEGREES CELSIUS AND SEVEN DEGREES CELSIUS BY THE END OF THIS CENTURY ..............................................................

Scientists use climate models, which have grown in sophistication, to simulate the impact that emissions produced by human activity will have on future climate. These models show a further sharp rise in temperatures over India as a result of climate change. An analysis of the output from 18 different global climate models, published recently by scientists from the Indian Institute of Science (IISc), Bangalore, and the IIT-Bombay, indicated that the countrys average annual surface air temperature could go up by between four degrees Celsius and seven degrees Celsius by the end of

this century at the current rate of emissions. Such large temperature increases would be detrimental to society and the countrys economy, said K. Krishna Kumar of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) in Pune. In such a scenario, the frequency and duration of heat waves was likely to increase substantially, taking a toll on human health. Agriculture too would be adversely affected by the rise in temperature. What would happen to rainfall in the face of climate change, especially to the south-west monsoon that provides much of the precip-

itation the country receives, has proved more problematic to predict. For one thing, nationwide rainfall during the south-west monsoon has not shown any consistent trend over the last 140 years. Instead, the monsoon has displayed alternating periods of above-average and below-average rainfall. Moreover, unlike with temperature, global climate models differ considerably in depicting how the monsoon will react to rising emissions. The combined output from the ensemble of 18 climate models studied by Indian scientists suggested that the monsoon might give 20 per cent more rain by the end of this century if emissions continued at the current rate. Research published by B.N. Goswami of the IITM and other scientists showed that there had been a shift in rainfall patterns over central India in the latter half of the last century, with more heavy

UNCERTAIN FUTURE: The rise of the average surface temperature may affect farm productivity.
PHOTO: K.K.MUSTAFAH

rainfall events and less moderate rain occurring. Several studies based on various climate models have given indications that episodes of heavy rain, along with fewer rainy days, could become frequent in large parts of the country later this century, said G. Bala of the Indian Institute of Science. Consequently, the country could face more oods and droughts as the climate continued to warm. A warming of the global surface temperature by four degrees Celsius could lead to

an associated sea level rise of 0.5 metre to one metre, noted the World Bank report. Many coastal areas in the country were vulnerable to rising sea levels as were the deltas of the Ganges, the Krishna, the Godavari, the Cauvery and the Mahanadi, according to Indias Second National Communication. Besides, higher sea levels increase the damage a cyclone can unleash as it sweeps ashore. Cyclones and storm surges could have a devastating impact on large urban centres, including the mega about energy prices, and everyone is looking for alternatives, he says. Renewable energy which stands at 28,000 MW today is being propelled by market forces. Look at the wind energy sector in Tamil Nadu. It is being promoted by the textile industry simply because it is a cheaper source of energy. He feels that if the government can galvanise these market forces, it could make a bigger difference than regulatory regimes such as the PAT scheme. The government feels that the NAPCC has to be given time to work. All eight missions are being implemented, says R.R. Rashmi, Joint Secretary in the Ministry of Environment and Forests, and a key negotiator on the Indian team in Doha. He lists the solar and energy-efficiency missions as those which have started bearing fruit. You have to realise that missions like agriculture and water are

cities of Mumbai and Chennai, as well as other coastal cities, the Second National Communication observed. Although higher carbon dioxide levels and more rain can help crops grow better, higher temperatures and more erratic rainfall are often detrimental. For instance, the countrys wheat production could fall by about four million tonnes for every one degree Celsius rise in temperature during the crops growth period. Climate change, along with other environmental stresses, poses signicant challenges for cereal production in China and India, according to a recent report from the U.S. National Intelligence Council. Climate change will bring along it with new problems and challenges that must be faced. long-term adaptation missions. Given that the missions were launched in 2008 and were planned to run till 2017, they have almost reached the halfway point. However, the Prime Ministers Council on Climate Change, which launched the Plan and which was supposed to monitor its progress, has not met in the last two and a half years, Mr. Rashmi admits. He adds that the NAPCC is only one part of Indias climate strategy. The 12th Five Year Plan, which has just been approved by the Cabinet, will play a key role in moving the country into a sustainable development and low-carbon growth pathway. However, Mr. Rashmi notes that international nance a thorny issue at the Doha talks is critical as well. To the extent that we can work with domestic funds, we will do, but global funding is also needed.
ND-ND

Emissions cuts start at home

Priscilla Jebaraj

fter focussing on the international climate change negotiations in Doha earlier this month, the spotlight is shifting back to the domestic scene. India can point the nger at the failure of rich countries to check the growth of their greenhouse gas emissions, but its not a rosy picture back home either. Over the last decade or so, Indias emissions which now make up ve per cent of global emissions, the third highest in the world have displayed a clear shift from agriculture, where rice cultivation and livestock contribute to methane production. On the other hand, the energy and industrial sectors, which mostly produce carbon dioxide, now hold an increasing share of the total.
CM YK

Between 1994 and 2007, the year-on-year growth rate of agriculture emissions was only 0.6 per cent. Emissions from the energy sector grew at a rate of 4.8 per cent over the same period. The recent trend is weighted towards industrial processes. Between 1994 and 2000, the year-on-year growth of emissions from this sector was only two per cent. In the period between 2000 and 2007, this shot up to seven per cent. Even though starting from a low base, emissions from waste have also risen sharply seeing a 7.3 per cent growth rate between 1994 and 2007 with urbanisation generating ever-larger quantities of municipal waste. The estimates for 2007 show that the energy sector including power, transport and residential electricity

was responsible for 58 per cent of Indias emissions, with industry and agriculture following at 22 and 17 per cent. In a bid to slow down domestic emissions growth, the government launched the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) in 2008. Eight national missions dealing with solar energy, energy efficiency, sustainable agriculture and habitats, water and forestry, the Himalayan ecosystem and research were charted under the plan. However, a recent academic analysis of the missions found that some mid-stream corrections need to be made. The study, jointly released by the IIT-Madras and the Institute of Financial Management and Researchs Centre for Development Finance, identied both strengths and weaknesses in

the missions, pointing out that they often read as vague, all-encompassing planning documents, rather than specic missions with clearly chalked-out priorities and strategies. The two missions on mitigation solar energy and energy efficiency are more sharply dened, but if you look at something as large and complicated as the agriculture mission, it looks as though it was just rolled out hastily in time for [the critical 2009 UN summit at] Copenhagen without sufficient thought, says Sujatha Byravan, the lead author of the study. The energy efficiency mission, which has been the poster-boy of the Plan at international forums, is not ambitious enough, she says. They wanted to get buy-in from industry, and that is a

market compulsions, as government policies. With energy prices shooting up whether coal, electricity, oil, in fact gas is exorbitant there is an autonomous change within the industry simply to survive, says Chandra Bhushan, deputy director- general of the Centre for Science and Environment, who did a study in 2009 of the six most emissions-intensive industries, which together account for more than 60 per cent of the sectors emissions. I have never heard the thermal power sector talking Market compulsions about energy efficiency so Some progress may be tak- much. Whether its cement or ing place as much because of steel, they are very worried good thing, but it leaves out many major challenges. For example, Indias energy losses in distribution and transmission are huge. That needs to be addressed much more. A major drawback in the Plan, she feels, is that in many ways, it stresses a lower-carbon model of the existing development path. We have the opportunity to re-imagine our development pathway. For example, urban planning needs to revolve round non-motorised transport.