Exploring the Relationship among Legislation, Legislators, and Public Opinion on Same-Sex Marriage and Civil Union Legislation

in Illinois1
The 98th Illinois General Assembly is facing several legislative battles leftover from the previous legislative session, including the state pension deficit, gun control legislation, and same-sex marriage legislation. In a speech to the City Club of Chicago on January 28th, 2013, Illinois Senate President John Cullerton said that the timing is right to legalize same-sex marriage in the state, and he expects to call for a February 14 vote on the Religious Freedom and Marriage Fairness Act, granting gay and lesbian couples in Illinois the freedom to marry. While Gov. Pat Quinn has expressed support for the bill, the passage of this bill is far from certain as it will need bipartisan support in order to reach the governors desk. While there seems to be enough support in the Illinois State Senate, the Illinois House proves to be a more difficult taskespecially due to the lack of support from Illinois Republicans. When Illinois Republican Chairman Pat Brady expressed support for the Religious Freedom and Marriage Fairness Act in early January 2013, he experienced significant backlash from members of his own party.2 The party divide is consistent with a 2012 survey of Illinois voters conducted by Public Policy Polling3 (PPP). The PPP survey indicates a 47 percent approval rating for same-sex marriage in Illinois, with 42 percent responding that it should not be allowed and 11 percent responded they are unsure about the legality of same-sex marriage.4 However, support levels are significantly lower among Republicans, with only 19 percent reporting they believe that same-sex marriage should be allowed in Illinois, compared to 74 percent of Democrats and 34 percent of Independents. Support is also lower among men (38 percent) than women (54 percent), as well as lower among white voters (40 percent) compared to African-American voters (60 percent).5 This leaves Illinois legislators with an unclear picture of public opinion on the upcoming same-sex marriage legislation in Illinois. The following discussion outlines the relationship between Illinois legislators, legislation, and public opinion on same-sex marriage and civil unions; and most importantly, how mixed public opinion on same-sex marriage legislation in Illinois may lead to inaction on the part of Illinois state legislators. Defense of Marriage Act When the federal government passed the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) in 1996, thereby defining marriage as the legal union of one man and one woman for federal, and inter-state recognition purposes, Illinois also adopted a state-level version.6 According to Columbia University
This brief was compiled by researchers at the Survey Research Office, Center for State Policy & Leadership, at the University of Illinois Springfield. For additional information, visit: http://cspl.uis.edu/SurveyResearchOffice or contact us at (217) 206-6591, sro@uis.edu. 2 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/12/pat-brady-resignation_n_2459147.html http://www.salon.com/2013/01/13/illinois_gop_chair_facing_backlash_over_gay_marriage_support/ 3 A North Carolina based survey research firm which uses IVR technology. . 4 Conducted November 26th to 28th, 2012 and consisting of 500 Illinois voters with a margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points. 5 This is significant as historically, African American voters tend to have lower levels of support for gay rights than other racial categories. Many scholars and public opinion experts argue that when President Obama expressed his support for gay marriage during his interview with ABCs Robin Roberts in May of 2012 he was breaking political ground and leading the way for the public to follow especially African American voters. 6 In fact, Illinois lawmakers modified the Illinois Marriage and Dissolution of Marriage Act in 1996.
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Political Science professors Jeffrey R. Lax and Justin H Phillips in 1996, only 26 percent of Illinois residents supported same-sex marriage and 74 percent either supported DOMA or did not have an opinion.7 This was consistent with national levels of support for same-sex marriage. In 1996 Gallup reported that only 27 percent of Americans supported same-sex marriage and 68 percent opposed.8 Since the passing of DOMA, public opinion in Illinois, and nationally, has shifted more positively towards legal recognition of same-sex unions either through same-sex marriage legislation or civil unions. As seen in Figure 1, public support of same-sex marriage and civil unions has increased both nationally and in Illinois since 2005. In fact, in 2005, an ABC News and Washington Post survey found that the majority of Americans (56 percent) supported some form of legal recognition for same-sex partners (27 percent supporting same-sex marriage and 29 percent supporting civil unions).

Figure 1: Comparing Public Support for Same-Sex Marriage or Civil Unions

At the same time, public support for legal recognition of same-sex partnerships in Illinois was even higher than the national average. A 2005 Northern Illinois University survey found that 31 percent of those surveyed supported giving same-sex couples the right to marry, while 34 percent supported the concept of civil unions9, the remaining 29 percent opposed any legal recognition of same-sex couples. Overall, 65 percent of those surveyed in the NIU poll supported some form of legal recognition of same-sex couples, compared to 56 percent of the national sample.
For information on their methodology please see http://www.columbia.edu/~jrl2124/Lax_Phillips_Gay_Policy_Responsiveness_2009.pdf 8 For more information on Gallups methodology please see http://www.gallup.com/poll/147662/First-Time-MajorityAmericans-Favor-Legal-Gay-Marriage.aspx 9 Was comprised of responses from 1,309 adults across Illinois during November/December of 2005 and has a confidence interval of +/- 3 percent.
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Religious Freedom Protection and Civil Union Act Despite the majority of Illinois voters supporting some form of legal recognition for same-sex partners as early as 2005, Illinois lawmakers waited five years before passing legislation granting same-sex couples a form of legal recognition in Illinois. The Illinois legislature passed the Illinois Religious Freedom Protection and Civil Union Act in 2010 with a vote margin of 93 to 76,10 with very little bipartisan support.11 The bill was signed into law by Gov. Quinn on January 31, 2011. At that time, more than two-thirds of Illinois residents supported legal recognition for same-sex couples. The 2010 Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois Universitys annual poll found that 33.6 percent of Illinois voters supported same-sex marriage, 33.9 percent supported civil unions; while 26.5 percent did not support any form of legal recognition, leaving six percent reported dont know.12 It is important to note that at the time, the national level of support for same-sex marriage was higher than the level of support in Illinois. A 2010 CBS News poll found that 40 percent of Americans supported same-sex marriage, 30 percent supported civil unions and 25 percent opposed both same-sex marriage and civil unions.13 The lower level of support in Illinois in 2010 may be attributed to the media coverage of the hotly debated same-sex civil union legislation in Illinois, party differences on this issue, or actual decrease in public support. The Religious Freedom and Marriage Fairness Act 2012 saw an increase in national levels of support for same-sex marriage and a decrease in support for civil unions. A CBS News/New York Times14 found that 40 percent of the Americans polled support same-sex marriage, 23 percent supported civil unions, 31 percent opposed both same-sex marriage and civil unions, and 6 percent of those polled were unsure what they thought about samesex marriage. In Illinois, recent polls find mixed support for same-sex marriage and civil unions. More specifically, the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at SIU 15 found that 43.6 percent of those surveyed reported that the statement, gay/lesbian couples should be allowed to be married, came closest to their position on the legal rights of gay and lesbian couples in Illinois. Less than one-third of respondents (31.8 percent) reported that the statement, gay/lesbian couples should be allowed to form civil unions, came closest to their position on the legal rights of gay and lesbian couples, while 20.2 percent reported, there should be no legal recognition of relationships between gay and lesbian couples, came closest to their position on the legal rights of gay and lesbian couples. The results of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute survey combined with the results of the PPP survey (discussed earlier), suggests that Illinois residents have very mixed opinions surrounding the upcoming Religious Freedom and Marriage Fairness Act. This proves to be troubling for Illinois lawmakers. In his forthcoming book, Same-Sex Marriage in the United States: The Road to the Supreme Court, University of Illinois Springfield Professor Jason Pierceson argues that there are many state legislatures and courts that lead public opinion on controversial
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/12/01/illinois-civil-unions-bil_2_n_790595.html http://www.wbez.org/blog/justin-kaufmann/roll-call-how-your-lawmaker-voted-civil-unions 12 The survey was conducted between Sept. 30 th to Oct. 10th, 2010 of 1000 registered Illinois voters and has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. 13 Conducted Aug. 20-24, 2010 and consisting of 1,082 adults nationwide with a margin of error 3. 14 The survey was conducted Feb. 8-13, 2012 and consisted of 1,197 adults nationwide with a margin of error +/- 3 percentage points. 15 The survey was conducted Sept.4 -10th 2012, included 1,261 registered voters across the state, margin for error of +/2.77 percentage points.
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social and economic issues. However this is not true of Illinois. When the Iowa State Supreme Court ruled in 2009 to legalize same-sex marriage in the state, a University of Iowa Poll found that only 26.2 percent of those surveyed supported same-sex marriage.16 However, according to Pierceson, Iowa has a storied history on having an advocacy court system, willing to support legislation that is not supported by the majority of Iowans. This has not historically been the same for Illinois, especially when examining the history of legislation on same-sex marriage and civil unions.17 What the mixed support for same-sex marriage legal recognition means for the future of such legislation is unclear. While the future of legislation legalizing same-sex marriage in Illinois is uncertain, there has clearly been a shift in Illinois, and nationally, on the legality of same-sex marriage. A public that relatively recently opposed same-sex marriage is now more receptive to it and how legislatures in Illinois respond to this shift in public opinion will be of great interest to the advocates on both sides of the discussion, as well as academics, lawmakers, and the general public.

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The survey was of 978 Iowa adults with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent. The data was collected between March 23 and March 31, 2009. 17 Dr. Jason Pierceson, personal interview, February 7, 2013