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 Chapter 10 ● Advanced Methods of Forecasting
Exercises 10.7, 10.9, 10.10, and 10.11 Solutions

Authors’ note (Sept. 2012): The solutions to 10.7, 10.9 and 10.11 are at best incomplete!
10.7 Using the data set Gasprices_full.xlsx,
a. Test whether Crude, CPI, and Unemployment are stationary variables.
b. Develop a regression model for Unleaded, using the methods of Chapter 9.
c. Develop a three-variable VAR model that includes the price of Unleaded. In so doing, include only
those variables you expect to have an economic impact on the unleaded price. Use a maximum of two
lags.
d. Examine whether there is evidence for including lags longer than two in your model.
e. Evaluate the forecasting performance of your chosen model.
f. Develop a model in differences (for any of the nonstationary variables). Is this model a "better" model
than the model developed in levels in parts (b) and (c)? Explain. Does the forecasting performance of
the model improve on that of any of the earlier models?

The analysis we carry out are all much, much easier in proper econometric software. In the text we have
used either EViews7 or PCGive.`
10.9 Durkin, Ord, and Walker (2010) examined the growth of credit markets in the United States since 1946.
The data file Credit.xlsx contains annual values for real mortgage credit (RMC), real consumer credit
(RCC), and real disposable personal income (RDPI) for the period 1946-2006. All the observations are
measured in billions of dol lars, after adjustment by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Develop a VAR
model for these data for the period 1946-2003, and then forecast the last three years, 2004-2006. Examine
the relative advantages of a logarithmic transform and the use of differences.
10.10 Using the data set Gasprices_1.xlsx, but setting aside the data for 2006 through 2010, develop an
unrestricted VAR model, an ECM, and a model in stationary variables. Use appropriate error statistics to
examine the residuals and test their respective forecasting performances.
a. Do the residuals of the various models suggest any inadequacies in the model?
b. If you now consider the more recent data, from 2006 to 2010, does your chosen model show any
instability in its performance?
c. If you also bring into consideration the performance of the models over the years 2009-2010, which
model would you use for forecasting for the period 2011-2012? Explain your reasons.

WE use PcGive. Our focus is on explaining unleaded prices and our first model has included Unleaded,
CRUDE, CPI and Unemployment, with 3 lags. We will also take logs based on the analysis we carried out
in chapter 10. Use of PDI does not help the modelling although since it affects CPI it might prove of overall
benefits (some of the other factors might – perhaps we should extend the data base to include World Trade).
The forecasts for the last 5 years and the residuals are shown below.
A model with Unemployment and PDI was considered. From 2008 unemployment was persistently higher as
was PDI. The model was clearly inadequate.
Some programs including PCGive carry out automatic model selection. Here we summarize the results for
Log(Unleaded). Automatic model selection with insignificant lags excluded gives the following equation
for LogUnleaded

Graphs of the residuals and the forecasts compared to the actual are provided as shown:
Ord/Fildes Principles of Business Forecasting 1e Chapter 10 Exercises 10.7, 10.9, 10.10, 10.11 Solutions 2

© Cengage Learning 2013

All the variables show 2008-9 to generate large negative residuals caused by the major recession.

Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob

LUnleaded_1 1.29990 0.1515 8.58 0.0000
LUnleaded_2 -0.889233 0.1619 -5.49 0.0000
LUnleaded_3 0.213719 0.09172 2.33 0.0216
LCrude_1 0.216071 0.04265 5.07 0.0000
LCPI_1 -9.19292 3.045 -3.02 0.0032
LCPI_2 8.83651 2.959 2.99 0.0035
LPDI_1 0.242545 0.2014 1.20 0.2310
Constant U -0.913144 0.8210 -1.11 0.2685

sigma = 0.0423565 RSS = 0.1955538353

The in-sample residual tests suggest some discrepancies as shown below:

1-step (ex post) forecast analysis 2006-01-15 - 2010-12-15
Parameter constancy forecast tests:
using Omega Chi^2(240)= 484.69 [0.0000]** F(240,109)= 2.0196 [0.0000]**
using V[e] Chi^2(240)= 367.04 [0.0000]** F(240,109)= 1.5293 [0.0062]**
using V[E] Chi^2(240)= 411.19 [0.0000]** F(240,109)= 1.7133 [0.0008]**

Single-equation diagnostics using reduced-form residuals:

LUleaded : AR 1-2 test: F(2,107) = 1.1161 [0.3313]
LUleaded : ARCH 1-1 test: F(1,115) = 0.10145 [0.7507]
LUleaded : Normality test: Chi^2(2) = 18.077 [0.0001]**
LUleaded : Hetero test: F(14,102) = 1.9298 [0.0314]*
LUleaded : Hetero-X test: F(35,81) = 1.1479 [0.3008]
LCrude : AR 1-2 test: F(2,107) = 0.97313 [0.3812]
LCrude : ARCH 1-1 test: F(1,115) = 0.17761 [0.6742]
LCrude : Normality test: Chi^2(2) = 2.8983 [0.2348]
LCrude : Hetero test: F(14,102) = 0.94443 [0.5149]
LCrude : Hetero-X test: F(35,81) = 0.89920 [0.6290]

© 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted
in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Ord/Fildes Principles of Business Forecasting 1e Chapter 10 Exercises 10.7, 10.9, 10.10, 10.11 Solutions 3

LCPI : AR 1-2 test: F(2,107) = 1.3463 [0.2646]

LCPI : ARCH 1-1 test: F(1,115) =0.0063127 [0.9368]
LCPI : Normality test: Chi^2(2) = 64.999 [0.0000]**
LCPI : Hetero test: F(14,102) = 1.8542 [0.0405]*
LCPI : Hetero-X test: F(35,81) = 1.2062 [0.2426]
LPDI : AR 1-2 test: F(2,107) = 4.0733 [0.0197]*
LPDI : ARCH 1-1 test: F(1,115) = 35.676 [0.0000]**
LPDI : Normality test: Chi^2(2) = 402.21 [0.0000]**
LPDI : Hetero test: F(14,102) = 3.1519 [0.0004]**
LPDI : Hetero-X test: F(35,81) = 2.9660 [0.0000]**

Vector AR 1-2 test: F(32,363) = 1.4495 [0.0583]

Vector Normality test: Chi^2(8) = 443.90 [0.0000]**
Vector ZHetero test: F(56,387) = 1.6613 [0.0033]**
Vector ZHetero-X test: F(140,313)= 1.4242 [0.0058]**
Vector RESET23 test: F(32,363) = 2.9373 [0.0000]**
As noted the stability tests show the problem.

However, we’ve fitted an unconstained model. Is that the appropriate strategy? Checking using the ADF
(Dickey-Fuller) test we can establish the variables are not stationary – and a visual check and consideration
as to what they measure also confirms that conclusion.
We now fit the model to the log differenced data.
URF equation for: DlnUnlead
Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob
DlnUnlead_1 0.555595 0.1356 4.10 0.0001
DlnUnlead_2 -0.442501 0.1021 -4.34 0.0000
DlnCrude_1 0.194860 0.06470 3.01 0.0032
DlnCrude_3 0.161456 0.06010 2.69 0.0083
DCPI_1 -8.36960 2.912 -2.87 0.0049
Constant U 0.0191948 0.006881 2.79 0.0062

sigma = 0.0435472 RSS = 0.2085990505

The constraint, despite making sense produces a marginally higher sigma. We should also check the accuracy of
the forecasts. We examine the 1-step ahead forecasts from the unconstrained model, the differenced model
noting that the errors are dominated by the 2008-9 errors so medians are used. We should consider
calculating rolling forecast for longer horizons, e.g. 12 months.
Differenced Levels
Model Model
Mean 0.056126 0.052908
Median 0.035411 0.039347
The differenced model appears to be more robust but there’s not much in it.
Error corrections models were considered but without success in identifying a set of meaningful restrictions.
Fitting a model to the full data set gives the following graphs.

© 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted
in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Ord/Fildes Principles of Business Forecasting 1e Chapter 10 Exercises 10.7, 10.9, 10.10, 10.11 Solutions 4

© Cengage Learning 2013

As before there is some limited evidence of outliers in 2009. The equation for: LUleaded
Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob
LUleaded_1 1.21294 0.1339 9.06 0.0000
LUleaded_2 -0.713818 0.1424 -5.01 0.0000
LUleaded_3 0.0696510 0.07329 0.950 0.3433
LCrude_1 0.241842 0.04189 5.77 0.0000
LCPI_1 -3.94918 2.479 -1.59 0.1131
LCPI_2 3.28624 2.387 1.38 0.1704
LPDI_1 0.438498 0.1657 2.65 0.0089
Constant U -1.17888 0.5739 -2.05 0.0415

The coefficients are somewhat similar apart from CPI. Note that both model estimations suggest that CPI should
be included in differenced form. It is of course a non-stationary variable as the graph makes clear.
© Using the most recent data, we first need to add in some dummy variables for the unexpected large impact of
the recession.
10.11* Using the data set Exchange_rates.xlsx, covering data on the $US-Euro and $US-£Sterling exchange
rates from June 13, 1991, to June 13, 2011,
a. Test the stationarity of each series
i. with the subset with data from October 13, 1997, to June 13, 2002.
ii. with the full data set.
b. For each time series, develop an ARIMA model that produces one-step-ahead daily forecasts. Then do
the same for monthly average exchange rates.
c. Are the two series cointegrated? Consider both the full and the shorter data sets.
d. Is there any evidence of structural breaks in the full data series?

© 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted
in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Ord/Fildes Principles of Business Forecasting 1e Chapter 10 Exercises 10.7, 10.9, 10.10, 10.11 Solutions 5

e. Carry out a literature review of the comparative accuracy of alternative methods of exchange rate
forecasting. Do you find any evidence that any of the methods you have discovered have proved
successful beyond the random-walk naïve alternative?

We first graph the two series.

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 As Peter next undertook a journey to Leyden, the great scientist
Leeuwenhoek had to come on board his yacht. He brought some of
his most beautiful apparatus and a microscope with him. Peter
conversed with him for two hours, and manifested much pleasure in
the observation of the circulation of the blood in fishes. Boerhaave
took him to the Botanical Gardens and to the anatomical lecture-
room. On observing that one of his suite could not hide his aversion
for a body which seemed to him particularly worthy of observation
on account of its exposed sinews, he ordered him to tear out one of
these sinews with his teeth.
From Leyden, Peter returned to Amsterdam. Here he often joined
in the work on the galley which had been commenced at his request.
In the name of the town Vitsen requested the czar to accept this
ship as a present. Peter gave it the name Amsterdam, and in the
following year, laden with wares bought by Peter himself, it started
on its first journey to Archangel. From Amsterdam Peter often made
excursions to Zaandam, ever keen and confident, although his
Russian attendants trembled and quaked at the threatening dangers.
On market days he was greatly entertained by the quacks and tooth
drawers. He had one of the latter brought to him, and with great
dexterity soon acquired the knack necessary for this profession. His
servants had to provide him with opportunities for practising the
newly acquired art.
Through Vitsen the Dutch Jews petitioned the czar to permit their
nation, which had been banished by Ivan IV from Russia, to re-enter
it, and they offered to prove their gratitude by a present of 100,000
gulden. “My good Vitsen,” replied Peter, “you know my nation and
that it is not yet the time to grant the Jews this request. Tell them in
my name that I thank them for their offer, but that their condition
would become pitiable if they settled in Russia, for although they
have the reputation of swindling all the world in buying and selling, I
am afraid they would be greatly the losers by my Russians.”
During his sojourn in Amsterdam Peter received the joyful news of
two successful engagements against the Tatars in July and August.
To celebrate this victory he gave a brilliant fête to the authorities and
merchants of the town. The brilliant victory of Prince Eugene at
Zenta was yet more decisive for the issue of the war against the
Turks.
On the 9th of November Peter, accompanied only by Lefort,
returned to the Hague, where he informed King William III of his
desire to see England. The king preceded him, and sent three men
of war and a yacht under the command of Admiral Mitchel to
conduct the czar. On the 18th of January, 1698, accompanied by
Menshikov and fifteen other Russians of his suite, he set sail at
Hellevoetsluis. Soon after the first days of his arrival in England, he
exchanged the dwelling assigned to him in the royal castle of
Somerset for the house of Mr. Evelyn at Deptford in the
neighbourhood of the admiralty works, whence he could enter the
royal construction yards unseen. There he learned from the master
builders how to draw up the plan according to which a ship must be
built. He found extreme pleasure in observing the cannon at the
Tower, and also the mint, which then excelled all others in the art of
stamping.
In his honour Admiral Carmarthen instituted a sham sea fight at
Spithead on the 3rd of April which was conducted on a greater scale
than a similar spectacle given for him in Holland. He often visited the
great cathedrals and churches. He paid great attention to the
ceremonial of English church worship; he also visited the meeting-
houses of the Quakers and other sects. At Oxford he had the
organisation and institutions of the university shown him. As in
Holland, he preferred to pass most of his time with handicraftsmen
and artists of every kind; from the watchmaker to the coffin maker,
all had to show him their work, and he took models with him to
Russia of all the best and newest. During his stay he always dressed
either as an English gentleman or in a naval uniform.
In Holland the English merchants had presented the czar with a
memorial through Count Pembroke on the 3rd of November, 1697, in
which they had petitioned for permission to import tobacco (which
had been so strongly forbidden under the czars Michael and Alexis),
and offered to pay a considerable sum of money for the privilege.
The marquis of Carmarthen now again broached the subject, and on
the 16th of April a treaty was signed with the Russian ambassador
Golovin for three years, which authorised Carmarthen’s agents to
import into the Russian Empire in the first year three thousand
hogsheads (of five hundred English pounds each), and in each of the
following two years four thousand hogsheads, against a tax of 4
kopecks in the pound. Twelve thousand pounds were paid down in
advance. This money placed the czar in a position to make still
greater purchases, as well as to engage a greater number of
foreigners in his service; amongst them the astronomer and
professor of mathematics Ferguson of Scotland, the engineer
Captain Perry, and the shipbuilders John Dean and Joseph Ney.f
King William made Peter a present of the
[1698 a.d.] Royal Transport, a very beautiful yacht, which
he generally used for his passage over to
Holland. Peter went on board this vessel, and got back to Holland in
the end of May, 1698. He took with him three captains of men-of-
war, five-and-twenty captains of merchant ships, forty lieutenants,
thirty pilots, thirty surgeons, two hundred and fifty gunners, and
upwards of three hundred artificers. This colony of ingenious men in
the several arts and professions sailed from Holland to Archangel on
board the Royal Transport; and were sent thence to the different
places where their service was necessary. Those whom he engaged
at Amsterdam took the route of Narva, at that time subject to
Sweden.
While the czar was thus transporting the arts and manufactures
from England and Holland to his own dominions, the officers whom
he had sent to Rome and Italy succeeded so far as also to engage
some artists in his service. General Sheremetrev, who was at the
head of his embassy to Italy, made the tour of Rome, Naples,
Venice, and Malta; while the czar proceeded to Vienna with the other
ambassadors. All he had to do now was to observe the military
discipline of the Germans, after seeing the English fleet and the
dockyards in Holland. But it was not the desire of improvement alone
that induced him to make this tour to Vienna, he had likewise a
political view; for the emperor of Germany was the natural ally of
the Russians against the Turks. Peter had a private audience of
Leopold, and the two monarchs stood the whole time of the
interview, to avoid the trouble of ceremony.
 EXECUTION OF THE STRELITZ BY COMMAND OF PETER THE
GREAT

(Painted for The Historians’ History of the World by Thure de

Thulstrup)

During his stay at Vienna, there happened nothing remarkable,

except the celebration of the ancient feast of “landlord and landlady,”
which Leopold thought proper to revive upon the czar’s account,
after it had been disused during his whole reign. The manner of
making this entertainment, to which the Germans gave the name of
Wirthschaft, was as follows: The emperor was landlord, and the
empress landlady; the king of the Romans, the archdukes, and the
archduchesses were generally their assistants; they entertained
people of all nations, dressed after the most ancient fashion of their
respective countries. Those who were invited as guests drew lots for
tickets; on each of which was written the name of the nation, and
the character to be represented. One had a ticket for a Chinese
mandarin, another for a Tatar mirza, another for a Persian satrap, or
a Roman senator; a princess might happen to be allotted the part of
a gardener’s wife, or a milkwoman; and a prince might act the
peasant or soldier. They had dances suited to these different
characters; and the landlord and landlady with their family waited at
table. On this occasion Peter assumed the habit of a Friesland boor,
and in this character was addressed by everybody, at the same time
that they talked to him of the great czar of Muscovy. “These indeed
are trifles,” says Voltaire, from whom the account is taken, “but
whatever revives the memory of ancient customs is, in some
measure, worthy of being recorded.”

THE INSURRECTION OF THE STRELITZ

Peter was preparing to continue his journey from Vienna to Venice

and Rome when he was recalled to his own dominions by news of a
general insurrection of the strelitz, who had quitted their posts on
the frontiers, and marched on Moscow. Peter immediately left Vienna
in secret, passed through Poland, where he had an interview with
King Augustus, and arrived at Moscow in September, 1698, before
anyone there knew of his having left Germany.e
When Peter I arrived from Vienna he found that his generals and
the douma had acted with too great leniency. He cherished an old
grudge against the strelitz; they had formed the army of Sophia
which had been arrayed against that of the czar, and in his mind was
still alive the memory of the invasion of the Kremlin, the murder of
his maternal relatives, the terrors undergone by his mother in
Troitsa, the plots that had well-nigh prevented his departure for the
west, and the check placed by the mutineers on the plans he had
matured for the good of his country during his journey through
Europe. He resolved to seize the opportunity thus placed in his
hands to crush all his enemies at one blow, and to inaugurate in old
Russia a reign of terror that should recall the days of Ivan IV. The
particular point of attack had been his taste for foreign fashions, for
shaven chins, and abbreviated garments. These therefore should be
the rallying-sign of the Russia of the future. Long beards had been
the standard of revolt; long beards must fall. He ordered all the
gentlemen of his realm to shave, and even performed that office
with his own hand for some of the highest nobles of his court. On
the same day the Red Square was covered with gibbets. The
patriarch Adrian tried in vain to divert the anger of the czar. “My duty
is to protect the people and to punish rebels,” was the only answer
he received.
On the 10th of October a first consignment of two hundred
prisoners arrived in the Red Square, followed by their wives and
children, who ran behind the carts chanting funeral dirges. The czar
ordered several officers to assist the headsman in his work. Johann
Korb, an Austrian who was an eye-witness of the scene, relates that
the heads of “five rebels were struck off by the noblest hand in
Russia.” Seven more days were devoted to the executions, and in all
about a thousand victims perished. Many were previously broken on
the wheel or given up to other frightful tortures. The czar forbade
the removal of any of the bodies, and for five months Moscow was
given the spectacle of corpses hanging from the turrets of the
Kremlin, or exposed in the public squares. Two of Sophia’s female
confidantes were buried alive, and Sophia herself and the repudiated
czarina, Eudoxia Lapukhin, noted for her attachment to old customs,
were confined in monasteries. After the revolt of the inhabitants of
Astrakhan, who murdered their voyevod (1705), the militia was
abolished and the way was clear for the establishment of a new
army.g

WAR WITH SWEDEN

The external relations as well as the domestic

[1699 a.d.] circumstances of the empire were at this
juncture peculiarly favourable to the czar’s
grand design of opening a communication with the Baltic. He had
just concluded a treaty of peace for thirty years with the Turks, and
he found himself at the head of a numerous army, a portion, at
least, of which was well disciplined, and eager for employment. The
death of General Lefort, in 1699, at the early age of forty-six, slightly
retarded the progress of his movements; but in the following year he
prepared to avail himself of events that called other powers into
action and afforded him a feasible excuse for taking the field.
Charles XII, then only eighteen years of age, had recently
succeeded to the throne of Sweden. The occasion seemed to yield
an auspicious opportunity to Poland and Denmark for the recovery of
certain provinces that in the course of former wars had either been
wrested from them by Sweden, or ceded by capitulation. Augustus,
the elector of Saxony, called by choice to the throne of Poland, was
the first to assert this doctrine of restitution, in which he was quickly
followed by the Danish king. Livonia and Esthonia had been ceded
by Poland to Charles XI, and the provinces of Holstein and Schleswig
had been conquered from Denmark in the same reign, and annexed
to the Swedish territories. The object of the allies was to recover
those places. Sweden, thus assailed in two quarters, presented an
apparently easy victory to the czar, whose purpose it was to possess
himself of Ingria and Karelia, that lay between him and the sea. A
confederacy was, therefore, entered into by the three powers for the
specific view of recovering by war those provinces that had
previously been lost by war. But Peter miscalculated his means. The
arms of Sweden were crowned with triumphs, and her soldiery were
experienced in the field. The Russian troops, on the contrary, were
for the greater part but raw recruits, and, except against the Turks
and Tatars, had as yet but little practice in military operations. The
genius of Peter alone could have vanquished the difficulties of so
unequal a contest.
The preparations that were thus in course of organisation
awakened the energies of Charles. Without waiting for the signal of
attack from the enemy, he sent a force of eight thousand men into
Pomerania, and, embarking with a fleet of forty sail, he suddenly
appeared before Copenhagen, compelled the king of Denmark within
six weeks to sign a peace by which the possession of Holstein was
confirmed to the reigning duke, and a full indemnity obtained for all
the expenses of the war. He had no sooner overthrown the designs
of the Danish monarch than he turned his arms against Poland.
Augustus had laid siege to Riga, the capital of Livonia; but that city
was defended with such obstinacy by Count Dalberg that the Polish
general was glad to abandon the enterprise, upon the shallow
pretext that he wished to spare the Dutch merchandise which was at
that time stored in the port. Thus the confederation was dissolved,
and the struggle was left single-handed between the Russians and
the Swedes.
Peter, undismayed by the reverses of his allies, poured into Ingria
an army of sixty thousand men. Of these troops there were but
twelve thousand disciplined soldiers; the remainder consisted of
serfs and fresh levies, gathered from all quarters, rudely clad, armed
only with clubs and pikes, and unacquainted with the use of
firearms. The Swedish army, on the other hand, was only eight
thousand strong; but it was composed of experienced battalions,
flushed by recent successes, and commanded by able generals. The
advanced guards of the Russians were dispersed on their progress,
in some skirmishes with the Swedes; but the main body penetrated
to the interior, and intrenched itself before the walls of Narva, a
fortified place on the banks of the Narova, a river that flowed from
Lake Peipus into the Baltic Sea. For two months they lay before the
town, when Peter, finding it necessary to hasten the movements of
some regiments that were on their march from Novgorod, as well as
to confer with the king of Poland in consequence of his
abandonment of the siege of Riga, left the camp, delegating the
command to the duke of Croy, a Flemish officer, and prince
Dolgoruki, the commissary-general.
His absence was fatal to this undertaking.
[1701 a.d.] Charles, during a violent snow-storm, that blew
directly in the face of the Russians, attacked the
enemy in their intrenchments. The besiegers were filled with
consternation. The duke of Croy issued orders which the prince
Dolgoruki refused to execute, and the utmost confusion prevailed
amongst the troops. The Russian officers rose against the Germans
and massacred the duke’s secretary, Colonel Lyons, and several
others. The presence of the sovereign was necessary to restore
confidence and order, and, in the absence of a controlling mind the
soldiers, flying from their posts and impeding each other in their
attempts to escape, were slaughtered in detail by the Swedes. In
this exigency, the duke of Croy, as much alarmed by the temper of
the Russians as by the superiority of the enemy, together with
almost all the German officers in the service, surrendered to the
victorious Charles, who, affecting to despise his antagonist,
contented himself with retaining a few general officers and some of
the Saxon auxiliaries, as prisoners to grace his ovation at Stockholm,
and suffered the vanquished troops to return home. Thus failed the
first descent upon Ingria, which cost Russia, even on the statement
of the czar himself, between five thousand and six thousand men.
The loss of the Swedes is estimated by Peter at three thousand, but
Voltaire reduces the number to twelve hundred, which, considering
the relative positions of both armies, and the disadvantages of other
kinds under which the Russians were placed, is more likely to be
accurate.
This unpropitious event did not discourage Peter. “The Swedes,”
he observed, “will have the advantage of us for some time, but they
will teach us, at last, how to beat them.” If Charles, however, had
followed up his success, and pushed his fortunes into the heart of
Russia immediately after this victory, he might have decided the fate
of the empire at the gates of Moscow. But, elated with his triumphs
in Denmark, and tempted by the weakness of the Poles, he
embraced the more facile and dazzling project of concentrating his
whole power against Augustus, declaring that he would never
withdraw his army from Poland until he had deprived the elector of
his throne. The opportunity he thus afforded Peter of recruiting his
shattered forces, and organising fresh means of aggression, was the
most remarkable mistake in the whole career of that vain but heroic
monarch.

RALLYING FROM DEFEAT

While Charles was engaged in Poland, Peter gained time for the
accomplishment of those measures which his situation suggested.
Despatching a body of troops to protect the frontiers at Pskov, he
repaired in person to Moscow, and occupied himself throughout the
ensuing winter in raising and training six regiments of infantry,
consisting of 1000 men each, and several regiments of dragoons.
Having lost 145 pieces of cannon in the affair at Narva he ordered a
certain proportion of the bells of the convents and churches to be
cast into field pieces; and was prepared in the spring of the year
1701 to resume hostilities with increased strength, and an artillery of
100 pieces of cannon, 142 field pieces, 12 mortars, and 13
howitzers.
Nor did he confine his attention to the improvement of the army.
Conscious of the importance of diffusing employment amongst his
subjects, and increasing their domestic prosperity, he introduced into
the country flocks of sheep from Saxony, and shepherds to attend to
them, for the sake of the wool; established hospitals, and linen and
paper manufactories; encouraged the art of printing; and invited
from distant places a variety of artisans to impart to the lower
classes a knowledge of useful crafts. These proceedings were
treated with levity and contempt by Charles, who appears all
throughout to have despised the Russians, and who, engrossed by
his campaign in Courland and Lithuania, intended to turn back to
Moscow at his leisure, after he should have dethroned Augustus, and
ravaged the domains of Saxony.
Unfortunately the divisions that prevailed in the councils of Poland
assisted to carry these projects rapidly into effect. Peter was anxious
to enter into a new alliance with Augustus, but, in an interview he
held with that prince at Birzen, he discovered the weakness of his
position and the hopelessness of expecting any effectual succour at
his hands. The Polish diet, equally jealous of the interference of the
Saxon and Russian soldiery in their affairs, and afraid to incur the
hostility of Charles, refused to sanction a league that threatened to
involve them in serious difficulties. Hence, Augustus, left to his own
resources, was easily deprived of a throne which he seemed to hold
against the consent of the people, while Peter was forced to conduct
the war alone. His measures were consequently taken with
promptitude and decision. His army was no sooner prepared for
action than he re-entered Ingria, animating the troops by his
presence at the several points to which he directed their
movements. In some accidental skirmishes with small bodies of the
Swedes, he reaped a series of minor successes, that inspired the
soldiers with confidence and improved their skill for the more
important scenes that were to follow. Constantly in motion between
Pskov, Moscow, and Archangel, at which last place he built a fortress
called the New Dvina, he diffused a spirit of enthusiasm amongst the
soldiers, who were now becoming inured to action.
An open battle at last took place in the
[1702 a.d.] neighbourhood of Dorpat, on the borders of
Livonia, when General Sheremetrev fell in with
the main body of the enemy on the 1st of January, 1702, and, after
a severe conflict of four hours, compelled them to abandon their
artillery and fly in disorder. On this occasion, the Swedes are said to
have lost three thousand men, while there were but one thousand
killed on the opposite side. General Sheremetrev was immediately
created a field-marshal, and public thanks were offered up for the
victory.
Following up this signal triumph, the czar equipped one fleet upon
Lake Peipus to protect the territory of Novgorod, and manned
another upon Lake Ladoga, to resist the Swedes in case they should
attempt a landing. Thus guarded at the vulnerable points, he was
enabled to prosecute his plans in the interior with greater certainty
and effect.
Marshal Sheremetrev in the meantime marched upon Marienburg,
a town on the confines of Livonia and Ingria, achieving on his
progress another triumph over the enemy near the village of
Humolova. The garrison at Marienburg, afraid to risk the
consequences of a siege, capitulated at once, on condition that the
inhabitants should be permitted a free passage, which was agreed
to; but an intemperate officer having set fire to the powder
magazine, to prevent the negotiation from being effected, by which
a number of soldiers on both sides were killed, the Russians fell
upon the inhabitants and destroyed the town.

THE ANTECEDENTS OF AN EMPRESS

Amongst the prisoners of war was a young Livonian girl, called

Martha, an orphan who resided in the household of the Lutheran
minister of Marienburg. She had been married the day before to a
sergeant in the Swedish army; and when she appeared in the
presence of the Russian general Bauer, she was bathed in tears, in
consequence of the death of her husband, who was supposed to
have perished in the melée. Struck with her appearance, and curious
to learn the history of so interesting a person, the general took her
to his house, and appointed her
to the superintendence of his
household affairs. Bauer was an
unmarried man, and it was not
surprising that his intercourse
with Martha should have
exposed her to the imputation of
having become his mistress; nor,
indeed, is there any reason,
judging by the immediate
circumstances as well as the
subsequent life of that
celebrated woman, to doubt the
truth of the charge. Bauer is
said to have denied the fact, Catherine I
which is sufficiently probable, as (1679-1727)
it was evidently to his interest to
acquit the lady of such an
accusation; but, however that may be, it is certain that Prince
Menshikov, seeing her at the general’s house, and fascinated by her
manners, solicited the general to transfer her services to his
domestic establishment; which was at once acceded to by the
general, who was under too many obligations to the prince to leave
him the option of a refusal.
Martha now became the avowed mistress of the libertine
Menshikov, in which capacity she lived with him until the year 1704,
when, at the early age of seventeen, she enslaved the czar as much
by her talents as by her beauty, and exchanged the house of the
prince for the palace of the sovereign. The extraordinary influence
she subsequently exercised when, from having been the mistress
she became the wife of the czar, and ultimately the empress
Catherine, developing, throughout the various turns of her fortune, a
genius worthy of consort with that of Peter himself, opens a page in
history not less wonderful than instructive. The marriage of the
sovereign with a subject was common in Russia; but, as Voltaire
remarks, the union of royalty with a poor stranger, captured amidst
the ruins of a pillaged town, is an incident which the most
marvellous combinations of fortune and merit never produced before
or since in the annals of the world.

MILITARY SUCCESS: FOUNDATION OF ST. PETERSBURG

The most important operations of the campaign in the year 1702

were now directed to the river Neva, the branches of which issue
from the extremity of Lake Ladoga, and, subsequently reuniting, are
discharged into the Baltic. Close to the point where the river flowed
from the lake was an island, on which stood the strongly fortified
town of Rottenburg. This place, maintaining a position that was of
the utmost consequence to his future views, Peter resolved to
reduce in the first instance; and, after laying siege to it for nearly a
month, succeeded in carrying it by assault. A profusion of rewards
and honours were on this occasion distributed amongst the army,
and a triumphal procession was made to Moscow, in which the
prisoners of war followed in the train of the conqueror. The name of
Rottenburg was changed to that of Schlüsselburg, or city of the key,
because that place was the key to Ingria and Finland. The
solemnities and pomp by which these triumphs were celebrated
were still treated with contempt by Charles, who, believing that he
could at any moment reduce the Russians, continued to pursue his
victories over Augustus. But Peter was rapidly acquiring power in the
very direction which was most fatal to his opponent, and which was
directly calculated to lead to the speedy accomplishment of his final
purpose.
The complete occupation of the shores of the Neva was the first
object to be achieved. The expulsion of the enemy from all the
places lying immediately on its borders and the possession or
destruction of all the posts which the Swedes held in Ingria and
Karelia were essential to the plans of the czar. Already an important
fortress lying close to the river was besieged and reduced, and two
Swedish vessels were captured on the lake by the czar in person.
Further successes over the Swedish gunboats, that hovered near the
mouth of the river, hastened his victorious progress; and when he
had made himself master of the fortress of Kantzi, on the Karelian
side, he paused to consider whether it would be advisable to
strengthen that place, and make it the centre of future operations,
or push onwards to some position nearer to the sea. The latter
proposal was decided upon; and a marshy island, covered with
brushwood, inhabited by a few fishermen, and not very distant from
the embouchure of the Neva, was chosen as the most favourable
site for a new fortress. The place was, by a singular anomaly, called
Lust Eland, or Pleasure Island, and was apparently ill adapted for the
destinies that in after-times surrounded it with glory and splendour.
On this pestilential spot, Peter laid the foundations of the fortress of
St. Petersburg, which gradually expanded into a city and ultimately
became the capital of the empire.
The country in the neighbourhood of this desolate island, or
cluster of swamps, was one vast morass. It did not yield a particle of
stone, and the materials with which the citadel was built were
derived from the ruins of the works at Nianshantz. Nor were these
the only difficulties against which Peter had to contend in the
construction of the fortifications. The labourers were not furnished
with the necessary tools, and were obliged to toil by such expedients
as their own invention could devise. So poorly were they appointed
for a work of such magnitude that they were obliged to carry the
earth, which was very scarce, from a considerable distance in the
skirts of their coats, or in bags made of shreds and matting. Yet the
fortress was completed within five months, and before the expiration
of a year St. Petersburg contained thirty thousand houses and huts
of different descriptions.
So gigantic an undertaking was not accomplished without danger,
as well as extreme labour. Peter, who could not be turned aside from
his purposes by ordinary obstacles, collected a vast concourse of
people from a variety of countries, including Russians, Tatars,
Kalmucks, Cossacks, Ingrians, and Finlanders; and employed them,
without intermission, and without shelter from an inclement climate
of sixty degrees of latitude, in deepening the channels of the rivers
and raising the general level of the islands which were in the winter
seasons usually sunk in the floods. The severity of the labour, and
the insufficiency of provisions, caused a great mortality amongst the
workmen. A hundred thousand men are said to have perished in the
first year. While this fort was in progress of erection, Peter
despatched Menzikov to a little island lying nearer to the mouth of
the river, to build another fortress for the protection of the entrance.
The model of the fortress was made by himself in wood. He gave it
the name of Kronstadt, which, with the adjacent town and buildings,
it still retains. Under the cannon of this impregnable fortress the
largest fleet might float in shelter.
The establishment of a new city on so unfavorable a site, and the
contemplated removal of the seat of government, received
considerable opposition from the boyars and upper classes, as well
as from the inferior grades, who regarded the place with terror, in
consequence of the mortality it had already produced. The
discontent of the lower orders broke out in loud complaints during
Peter’s temporary absence. No measures short of the most despotic
could have compelled the inhabitants of Moscow to migrate to the
bleak and dismal islands of the Neva, and Peter was not slow to
carry such measures into effect.
If the people could have looked beyond the convenience of the
moment into the future prospects of the empire, they must at once
have perceived the wisdom of the change. The paramount object of
Peter’s policy was the internal improvement of Russia. The
withdrawal of the nobility, the merchants, and the artisans from their
rude capital in the interior, to an imperial seat on the gulf of Finland,
by which they would be brought into closer intercourse with civilised
Europe, and acquire increased facilities for commercial enterprise,
was evidently calculated to promote that object, which was distinctly
kept in view in the place upon which the city was built. Peter had not
forgotten the practical lessons he had learned during his residence in
Holland. That country, the inhabitants of which in Pliny’s time were
described to be amphibious, as if it were doubtful to which element,
the land or the sea, they really belonged, had been redeemed from
the ocean by the activity and skill of the people; and Peter, profiting
by their experience, adopted Amsterdam as his model in securing
the foundations of St. Petersburg. He employed several Dutch
architects and masons; and the wharfs, canals, bridges, and
rectilineal streets, planted with rows of trees, attest the accuracy
with which the design was accomplished. To a neighbouring island,
which he made a depot for timber, he gave the name of New
Holland, as if he meant to leave to posterity an acknowledgement of
the obligations he owed to that country.
The speculations of the czar were rapidly fulfilled in the
commercial relations invited by the establishment of St. Petersburg.
Five months had scarcely elapsed from the day of its foundation
when a Dutch ship, freighted with merchandise, stood into the river.
Before the expiration of a year, another vessel from Holland arrived;
and the third vessel, within the year, that entered the new port was
from England. These gratifying facts inspired confidence amongst
those who had been disposed to look upon the project with such
hasty distrust; and Peter, whose power was now rapidly growing up
on all sides, was enabled to extend his operations in every direction
over Ingria. The variety of affairs which, at this juncture, occupied
his attention sufficiently proves the grasp of his capacity and the
extraordinary energy of his mind. At nearly the same time that he
founded a new capital he was employed in fortifying Pskov,
Novgorod, Kiev, Smolensk, Azov, and Archangel; and in assisting the
unfortunate Augustus with men and money. Cornelius van Bruyer, a
Dutchman, who at that period was travelling in Holland, states that
Peter informed him that, notwithstanding all these undertakings, he
had 300,000 roubles remaining in his coffers, after providing for all
the charges of the war.
The advances that the czar was thus making in strengthening and
civilising the empire were regarded with such contempt by Charles
that he is reported to have said that Peter might amuse himself as
he thought fit in building a city, as he should soon find him to take it
from him and set fire to his wooden houses. The Porte, however, did
not look with indifference upon his movements, and sent an
ambassador to him to complain of his preparations; but Peter replied
that he was master of his own dominions, as the Porte was of his,
and that his object was not to infringe the peace, but to render
Russia “respectable” upon the Euxine.

RENEWED HOSTILITIES

The time was now approaching when the

[1704 a.d.] decision of the disputes in Poland enabled
Charles to turn back upon Ingria, where Peter
was making so successful a stand. On the 14th of February, 1704,
the primate of Warsaw threw off his allegiance to Augustus, who
was in due form deposed by the diet. The nomination of the new
king was placed in the hands of Charles, who proposed Stanislaus
Leszczynski, a young nobleman distinguished for his
accomplishments, who was accordingly declared king of Poland and
grand duke of Lithuania. But Lithuania had not as yet sent in her
adherence to either side; and Peter, still taking a deep interest in the
fortunes of Augustus, whose Saxon troops were every day suffering
fresh discomfitures from the Swedish army, sent that monarch a
reinforcement of twelve thousand men to support his claims in the
undecided province. The military force of Russia had now become a
formidable body, highly disciplined, and fully equipped; and Peter,
without loss of time, in the spring of 1704, disposed the remainder
of his army into two divisions, one of which he sent under the
command of Field-Marshal Sheremetrev, to besiege Dorpat, while he
took in person the conduct of the other against Narva, where he had
formerly endured a signal defeat.
Dorpat, which is better known by this siege than by the university
which Gustavus Adolphus had previously established there, was
forced to capitulate by a ruse de guerre. It was necessary in the first
instance to become master of Lake Peipus, for which purpose a
Russian flotilla was placed at the entrance of the Embach. Upon the
advance of a Swedish squadron a naval battle ensued, which ended
in the capture or destruction of the whole of the enemy’s fleet. Peter
now sat down before Dorpat, but, finding that the commandant held
out for six weeks, he adopted an ingenious device to procure
entrance into the town. He disguised two regiments of infantry and
one of cavalry in the uniforms of Swedish soldiers, giving them
Swedish standards and flags. These pretended Swedes attacked the
trenches, and the Russians feigned a fight. The garrison of the town,
deceived by appearances, made a sortie, when the false attackers
and the attacked reunited, fell upon the troops, and entered the
town. A great slaughter ensued, and, to save the remainder of the
garrison, the commandant surrendered.
At Narva Peter was equally successful. The siege was conducted
under his own personal command. Sword in hand, he attacked three
bastions that offered the strongest points of defence, carried them
all, and burst into the town. The barbarities that ensued were of a
nature to revolt even the czar himself. Pillage, slaughter, and lustful
excesses were committed by the infuriated men; and Peter, shocked
at the cruelties he witnessed, threw himself amongst the barbarians
who refused to obey his orders and slew several of them in the
public streets. A number of the unfortunate citizens had taken
refuge in the hôtel de ville; and the czar, appearing in the midst of
them, cast his bloody sword on the table, declaring that it was
stained not with the blood of the citizens but of his own soldiers,
which he had shed to save their lives.
These victories were decisive of the position of Peter. He was now
master of all Ingria, the government of which he conferred upon
Menzikov, whom he created a prince of the empire and major-
general in the army. The elevation of Menzikov, through the various
grades of the service, from his humble situation as a pastrycook’s
boy to the highest dignities in the state, was a practical reproof to
the indolent and ignorant nobility, who were now taught to feel that
merit was the only recommendation to the favour of the czar. The
old system of promotion was closed. The claims of birth and the
pride of station ceased to possess any influence at court. The great
body of the people, impressed with the justice that dictated this
important change in the dispensation of honour and rewards, began
for the first time to be inspired with a spirit of emulation and
activity; and exactly in proportion as Peter forfeited the attachment
of the few, whose power was daily on the decline, he drew around
him the mixed wonder and allegiance of the many, whose power he
was daily enlarging. Thus were laid the foundations of a mighty
empire in the hearts of a scattered population, as various in habits
and in language as it had always been discordant in interests and
disunited in action.
Having acquired this valuable possession, and secured himself in
St. Petersburg against the Swedes, it was the profound policy of
Peter to keep up the war between Charles and Augustus, with a view
to weaken by diversion the strength of the former. He accordingly
made a great offer of assistance to the dethroned king, and
despatched General Repuin with six thousand horse and six
thousand foot to the borders of Lithuania; while he advanced in
person into Courland at the head of a strong force. Here he received
a severe check, having fallen in with the Swedish general
Lewenhauft, who defeated the Russians after an obstinate battle, in
which the czar’s troops lost between five thousand and six thousand
men, and the Swedes no more than two thousand. Peter,
notwithstanding, penetrated into Courland, and laid siege to the
capital, which surrendered by capitulation. On this occasion the
Swedes degraded themselves by committing an extensive pillage in
the palace and archives of the dukes of Courland, descending even
into the mausoleums to rob the dead of their jewels. The Russians,
however, before they would take charge of the vaults, made a
Swedish colonel sign a certificate that their sacrilegious depredations
were the acts of his own countrymen.

POLISH AFFAIRS

The greatest part of Courland, as well as the whole of Ingria, had

now been conquered in detail by Peter, and, as Charles was still
engrossed by his operations in Poland and Saxony, he returned to
Moscow to pass the winter; but intelligence of the approach of the
Swedish king at the head of a powerful force towards Grodno, where
the combined armies of Russia and Saxony were encamped, recalled
him from his repose. Peter immediately hastened to the field, and
found all the avenues occupied by Swedish troops. A battle ensued
near Frauenstadt, in which the flower of the confederated battalions,
under the command of General Schullemberg, to the number of
eighteen thousand men, six thousand of whom were Russians,
suffered a complete defeat. With an insignificant exception, they
were nearly all slain. Some authorities attribute this disaster to the
treachery of a French regiment, which had the care of the Saxon
artillery; but it is certain that the most sanguinary atrocities were
committed on both sides, in a contest upon the issues of which two
crowns appeared to be dependent.
The consequences of this
overthrow would have been
immediately fatal to Augustus,
but for the energy of the czar,
who, rapidly organising an army
of twenty thousand men, urged
that wavering prince to take
advantage of the absence of
Charles in Saxony, and throw
himself once more into Poland.
A revolt in Astrakhan called
Peter into that part of his
territories; but he deputed
General Patkul, a brave Livonian,
who had formerly made his
escape from the hands of
Charles, and had passed from
the service of Augustus into that
of the czar, to explain the
necessity of the measure.
Augustus yielded to the advice
 Wife of a Merchant of of his ally, and marched into
Kalonga
Poland; but he had no sooner
made good his progress than,
suddenly panic-struck by the increasing successes of Charles, he
resolved to sue for peace upon any terms at which it could be
procured. He accordingly invested two ambassadors with full powers
to treat confidentially with Charles, and had the temerity to cast
Patkul into prison. While the plenipotentiaries were negotiating this
shameful treaty at the camp of Charles XII, Menshikov joined the
forces of Augustus at Kalish with thirty thousand men. The
consternation of Augustus at this unexpected reinforcement was
indescribable; and his confusion amounted almost to despair upon
the receipt of intelligence that ten thousand Swedes, under the
command of General Meierfeldt, were on their march to give him
battle.
In this dilemma he transmitted a private message to General
Meierfeldt to inform him of the negotiation he had opened with his
master; but that general, naturally treating the whole affair as a
mere pretext to gain time, made preparations for hostilities. The
superior force of the Russians decided the fate of the day, and, after
having defeated the Swedes with great slaughter, they entered
Warsaw in triumph. Had Augustus relied upon the energy and
friendship of his ally, he would now have been replaced upon his
throne; but the timidity that tempted him to cast himself upon the
mercy of Charles was prolific of misfortunes. He had scarcely
entered Warsaw as a victor when he was met by his own
plenipotentiaries, who placed before him the treaty they had just
concluded, by which he had forfeited the crown of Poland forever.
His humiliation was complete. Thus the weak and vacillating
Augustus, fresh from a triumph that ought to have placed him upon
the throne of Poland, was a vassal in its capital, while Charles was
giving the law in Leipsic and reigning in his lost electorate.
His struggles to escape from the disgrace into which his folly and
his fears had plunged him only drew down fresh contempt upon his
head. He wrote to Charles a letter of explanation and apology, in
which he begged pardon for having obtained a victory against his
will, protesting that it was entirely the act of the Russians, whom it
was his full intention to have abandoned, in conformity with the
wishes of Charles; and assuring that monarch that he would do
anything in his power to render him satisfaction for the great wrong
he had committed in daring to beat his troops. Not content with this
piece of humility, and fearing to remain at Warsaw, he proceeded to
Saxony, and, in the heart of his own dominions, where the members
of his family were fugitives, he surrendered in person to the
victorious Swede. Charles was too conscious of his advantages not
to avail himself of them to the full, and not only made the timid
Augustus fulfil all the stipulations of the treaty, by which he
renounced the crown of Poland, abandoned his alliance with the
czar, surrendered the Swedish prisoners, and gave up all the
deserters, including General Patkul, whom Augustus had arrested by
a violation of good faith, but he forced him to write a letter to
Stanislaus, congratulating him on his accession to the throne. The
unfortunate Patkul was no sooner delivered into the hands of
Charles than he condemned him to be broken on the wheel and
quartered.
The timid and treacherous conduct of Augustus and the deliberate
cruelty of Charles drew from Peter expressions of unbounded
indignation. He laid a statement of the whole circumstances before
the principal potentates of Europe, and declared his determination to
use all the means in his power to drive Stanislaus from the throne of
Poland. The first measure he adopted was the holding of a
conference with several of the Polish grandees, whom he completely
gained over to his side by the suavity of his manners. At a
subsequent meeting it was agreed that the throne of Poland was in
fact vacant, and that a diet should be summoned for the purpose of
electing a king. When the diet assembled, Peter urged upon their
attention the peculiar circumstances in which the country was
placed, and the impossibility of effecting any substantial resistance
against the ambitious intrigues of Charles, unless a new king were
placed upon the throne. His views were confirmed by the voice of
the assembly, who agreed to the public declaration of an
interregnum, and to the investiture of the primate in the office of
regent until the election should have taken place.

CHARLES XII INVADES RUSSIA (1707 A.D.)

But while these proceedings were going

[1707 a.d.] forward at Lublin, King Stanislaus, who had
been previously acknowledged by most of the
sovereigns of Europe, was advancing into Poland at the head of
sixteen Swedish regiments, and was received with regal honours in
all the places through which he passed. Nor was this the only danger
that threatened to arrest the course of the proposed arrangements
for the settlement of the troubles of Poland. Charles, whose
campaign in Saxony had considerably enriched his treasury, was now
prepared to take the field with a well-disciplined army of forty-five
thousand men, besides the force commanded by General
Lewenhaupt; and he did not affect to conceal his intention to make
Russia the theatre of war, in which purpose he was strengthened by
an offer on the part of the Porte to enter into an offensive alliance
with him against Peter, whose interference in the affairs of Poland
excited great jealousy and alarm in Turkey. Charles calculated in
some degree upon the support he might receive from the Russians
themselves, who, he believed, would be easily induced to revolt
against Peter, in consequence of the innovations he had introduced
and the expenses that he would be likely to entail upon them by a
protracted war.
But the people of Russia were well aware that mere personal
ambition did not enter into the scheme of Peter, and that, although
he had broken through many antiquated and revered customs, yet
that he had conferred such permanent benefits upon the empire as
entitled him to their lasting gratitude. Whatever prospects of
success, therefore, Charles might have flattered himself upon
deriving from the dissatisfaction of the great mass of the community
were evidently vague and visionary. But the argument was sufficient
for all his purposes in helping to inspire his soldiers with confidence.
About this time the French envoy at the court of Saxony attempted
to effect a reconciliation between Charles and the czar, when the
former made his memorable reply that he would treat with Peter in
Moscow; which answer being conveyed to Peter produced his
equally memorable commentary—“My brother Charles wishes to play
the part of Alexander, but he shall not find a Darius in me.”
Rapid preparations were made on both sides for the war which
had now become inevitable. In the autumn of 1707 Charles
commenced his march from Altranstadt, paying a visit to Augustus at
Dresden as he passed through that city, and hastening onwards
through Poland, where his soldiers committed such devastations that
the peasantry rose in arms against them. He finally fixed his winter
quarters in Lithuania. During the time occupied by these movements
Peter was wintering at Moscow, where, after an absence of two
years, he had been received with universal demonstrations of
affection. He was busily occupied in inspecting the new
manufactories that had been established in the capital, when news
reached him of the operations of the Swedish army. He immediately
departed, and, with six hundred of the guards established his
headquarters in the city of Grodno. Charles no sooner heard of his
arrival at that place than, with his usual impetuosity, he hastened
forwards with only eight hundred men to besiege the town.
By a mistake, the life of Peter was nearly sacrificed. A German
officer, who commanded the gate towards which Charles
approached, imagining that the whole Swedish army was advancing,
fled from his post and left the passage open to the enemy. General
consternation prevailed throughout the city as the rumour spread;
and the victorious Charles, cutting in pieces the few Russians who
ventured to contest his progress, made himself master of the town.
The czar, impressed with the belief that the report was true,
retreated behind the ramparts, and effected his escape through a
gate at which Charles had placed a guard. Some Jesuits, whose
house, being the best in the town, was taken for the use of Charles,
contrived in the course of the night to inform Peter of the real
circumstances; upon which the czar re-entered the city, forced the
Swedish guard, and contended for possession in the streets. But the
approach of the Swedish army compelled him at last to retire, and to
leave Grodno in the hands of the conqueror.
The advance of the Swedes was now marked by a succession of
triumphs; and Peter, finding that Charles was resolved to pursue
him, and that the invader had but five hundred miles to traverse to
the capital, an interval unprotected by any places of consequence,
with the exception of Smolensk, conceived a masterly plan for
drawing him into a part of the country where he could obtain neither
magazines nor subsistence for his army, nor, in case of necessity,
secure a safe retreat. With this design he withdrew to the right bank
of the Dnieper,[40] where he established himself behind sheltered
lines, from which he might attack the enemy at an advantage,
preserving to himself a free communication with Smolensk, and
abundant means of retreat over a country that yielded plentiful
resources for his troops.
In order to render this measure the more certain, he despatched
General Goltz at the head of fifteen thousand men to join a body of
twelve thousand Cossacks, with strict orders to lay waste the whole
province for a circle of thirty miles, and then to rejoin the czar at the
position he had taken up on the bank of the Dnieper. This bold
movement was executed as swiftly as it was planned; and the
Swedes, reduced to immediate extremity for want of forage, were
compelled to canton their army until the following May. Accustomed,
however, to the reverses of war, they were not daunted by danger or
fatigue, but it was no longer doubtful that both parties were on the
eve of decisive events. They regarded the future, however, with very
different hopes. Charles, heated with victories, and panting for
further acquisitions, surveyed the vast empire, upon the borders of
which he now hung like a cloud, as if it were already within his
grasp; while Peter, more wary and self-possessed, conscious of the
magnitude of the stake for which he fought, and aware of the great
difficulties of his situation, occupied himself in making provision
against the worst.c

REVOLT OF THE COSSACKS OF THE DON; MAZEPPA

Meantime there were foes at home that had demanded the

attention of he czar.a The strelitz were not the only military body
belonging to old Russia whose existence had become incompatible
with the requirements of a modern state. The undisciplined Cossack
armies, which had hitherto formed a rampart for Russia against
barbarian hordes, were also to undergo transformation. The empire
had many causes of complaint against the Cossacks, particularly
those of the Ukraine and the Don who had formerly sustained the
usurper, Dmitri, and from whose ranks had issued the terrible Stenka
Radzin.
In 1706 the Cossacks of the Don had revolted against the
government of the czar because they were forbidden to give asylum
in their camp to refugee peasants or taxpayers. The ataman
Boulavine and his aids, Nekrassov, Frolov, and Dranyi, called them to
arms. They murdered Prince George Dolgoruki, defeated the
Russians on the Liskovata, took Tcherkask, and menaced Azov, all
the while proclaiming their fidelity to the czar and accusing the
voyevods of having acted without orders. They were in turn defeated
by Vasili Dolgoruki, Bulavin was murdered by his own soldiers and
Nekrassov with only two thousand men took refuge in the Kuban.
After clearing out the rebel camps Dolgoruki wrote: “The chief
traitors and mutineers have been hung, together with one out of ten
of the others; and all the bodies have been placed on rafts and
allowed to drift with the current that the Dontsi may be stricken with
terror and moved to repent.”
Since the disgrace of Samoilovitch, Mazeppa had been the hetman
of the Little Russian Cossacks in Ukraine. Formerly a page of John
Casimir, king of Poland, he had in his youth experienced the
adventure made famous by the poem of Lord Byron and the pictures
of Horace Vernet. Loosened from the back of the untamed horse
that fled with him to the deserts of Ukraine, he at once took rank in
the Cossack army, and rose by means of treachery, practised against
all the chiefs in turn, to fill the highest posts in the military service.
His good fortune created for him numerous enemies; but the czar,
who admired him for his intelligence and had faith in his fidelity,
invariably delivered over to him his detractors. He put to death the
monk Solomon for revealing his intrigues with Sophia and the king of
Poland, and later denunciators shared the same fate.
Ukraine, meanwhile, was being undermined by various factions. In
the Cossack army there was always a Russian party, a party that
wished to restore the Polish domination, and a party which designed
to deliver over the country to the Turks. In 1693 Petrik, a Turkish
chief, invaded Ukraine but failed in his attempts at subjugation.
Moreover, profound dissent existed between the army and the
sedentary populations of Ukraine. The hetman was constantly
scheming to make himself independent, the officers of the army
objected to rendering an account of their actions to others, and the
soldiers wished to live at the country’s expense without working or
paying taxes. The farmers, who had founded the agricultural
prosperity of the country, the citizens in towns who were not secure
in the pursuit of their avocations, the whole peaceful and laborious
population, in fact, longed to be free from this turbulent military
oligarchy and called upon the czar at Moscow to liberate them.
Mazeppa represented the military element in Ukraine and knew
that he was odious to the quiet classes. The czar showered proofs of
confidence upon him, but Mazeppa had reason to fear the
consolidation of the Russian state. The burdens that the empire
imposed upon the vassal state were day by day becoming heavier,
and the war against Charles XII served to increase them still more.
There was everything to fear from the imperious humour and
autocratic pretensions of the czar, and the imminent invasion of the
Swedes was certain to precipitate a crisis; either Little Russia would
become independent with the aid of strangers, or their defeat on her
soil would deal the death-blow to her prosperity and hopes for the
future. Knowing that the hour was approaching when he should be
obliged to obey the white czar Mazeppa allowed himself to be drawn
into communication with Stanislaus Leszczynski, the king of Poland
elected by the Swedish party. The witty princess Dolskaia gave him
an alphabet in cipher. Hitherto Mazeppa had given over to the czar
all letters containing propositions of betrayal, just as the czar had
surrendered to him his accusers. On receiving the letters of the
princess he remarked with a smile: “Wicked woman, she wishes to
draw me away from the czar.”
When, however, the hand of the sister of Menshikov was refused
to one of his cousins, when the Swedish war and the passage of
Muscovite troops limited his authority and increased taxation in his
territory, when the czar sent urgent injunctions for the equipment of
troops after the European fashion, and he could feel the spirit of
rebellion against Moscow constantly growing around him, he wrote
to Leszczynski that though the Polish army was weak in numbers it
had his entire good will. His confidant Orlik was in the secret of all
these manœuvres, and several of his subordinates who had divined
them undertook to denounce him to the czar. The denunciation was
very precise and revealed all the secret negotiations with the
emissaries of the king and of the princess Dolskaia; but it failed
before the blind confidence of the czar. Palei, one of the
denunciators, was exiled to Siberia; Iskra and Kotchonbei, the
remaining two, were forced by torture to avow themselves
calumniators, and were then delivered over to the hetman and
beheaded. Mazeppa realised that good fortune such as his could not
long endure, and the malcontents urged upon him the consideration
of the common safety. At this juncture Charles XII arrived in the
neighbourhood of Little Russia. “It is the devil who brings him here!”
cried Mazeppa, and placed between his two powerful enemies he
exerted all his craft to preserve the independence of his little state
without giving himself into the hands of either Charles XII or Peter
the Great. When the latter invited him to join the army he feigned
illness; but Menshikov approaching simultaneously with Charles XII,
it was necessary to make a choice. Mazeppa left his bed, rallied his
most devoted Cossacks about him, and crossed the Desna for the
purpose of effecting a junction with the Polish army. At this the czar
issued a proclamation denouncing the treason of Mazeppa, his
alliance with the heretics, his plots to bring Ukraine once more under
vassalage to Poland and to restore the temples of God and the holy
monasteries to the uniates. Mazeppa’s capital, Baturin, was taken by
Menshikov and rased to the ground, his accomplices perished on the
wheel or the scaffold.g

MAZEPPA JOINS CHARLES XII; PULTOWA

Mazeppa with his army passed over the

[1708-1709 a.d.] Desna; his followers, however, believed they
were being led against Charles, and deserted
their hetman as soon as his views were known, because they had
more to fear from Peter than to hope from Charles. The hetman
joined the Swedes with only seven thousand men, but Charles
prosecuted his march and despised every warning. He passed the
Desna; the country on the farther side became more and more
desolate, and appearances more melancholy, for the winter was one
of the most severe; hundreds of brave Swedes were frozen to death
because Charles insisted upon pursuing his march even in December
and January. The civil war in Poland in the mean time raged more
violently than ever, and Peter sent divisions of his Russians to harass
and persecute the partisans of Stanislaus. The three men who stood
in most immediate relation to the Swedish king, Piper, Rehnskold,
and Levenhaupt, belonged, indeed, among the greatest men of their
century; but they were sometimes disunited in their opinions, and
sometimes incensed and harassed by the obstinacy of the king.
Mazeppa fell a sacrifice to his connection with Charles, his
residence (Baturin) was destroyed by Menshikov, and his faithful
Cossacks, upon Peter’s demand, were obliged to choose another
hetman (November, 1708). Neither Piper nor Mazeppa could move
the obstinate king to relinquish his march towards the ill-fortified city
of Pultowa. Mazeppa represented to him in vain that, by an attack