Date BirlaSoft Limited Sanofi Pharmaceuticals Kalyani Steels Manorama Industries

Dec 01, 2023 632.4 8,055.00 476.2 2069.9

Nov 01, 2023 561.45 7,536.75 459.3 2169.95
Oct 01, 2023 483.35 7,154.60 535.55 2115.35
Sep 01, 2023 512.9 7,100.00 489 1914.95
Aug 01, 2023 428 6,950.00 429 1679
Jul 01, 2023 360.95 6,881.05 359.9 1525.1
Jun 01, 2023 344 6,815.00 335.25 1470
May 01, 2023 272.95 5,555.05 334 1035.65
Apr 01, 2023 264.5 5,800.00 296.3 1029.8
Mar 01, 2023 276 5,899.00 308.7 943.65
Feb 01, 2023 303.7 5,500.00 334.15 1069
Jan 01, 2023 300 5,860.00 360 1024.65
Gulf Oil Standard Chartered NDTV Monte Carlo
694 679.2 220 698.85
629.7 784.4 195.05 769.55
531 614.2 209.9 790.1
578.9 628.6 214.15 755
540.95 633.5 230.5 869.5
465 683 227.55 832.85
457.5 747.3 237.5 810.9
412.9 711.6 182 704
409 758 192 624.75
417.3 640 190.15 566
427.6 653.2 259 646.95
425.45 666.1 347.8 693
 Autocorrelation

Yt Yt-1 SUMMARY OUTPUT

632.4 0
561.45 632.4 Regression Statistics
483.35 561.45 Multiple R 0.139505
512.9 483.35 R Square 0.019462
428 512.9 Adjusted R Square -0.078592
360.95 428 Standard Error 130.6447
344 360.95 Observations 12
272.95 344
264.5 272.95 ANOVA
276 264.5 df
303.7 276 Regression 1
300 303.7 Residual 10
Total 11

Coefficients
Intercept 356.5576
X Variable 1 0.103939

X Y XY X^2 Forecasted Y MAD

1 632.4 632.4 1 571.010897435897 61.3891
2 561.45 1122.9 4 539.011946386946 583.8881
3 483.35 1450.05 9 507.012995337995 943.037
4 512.9 2051.6 16 475.014044289044 1576.586
5 428 2140 25 443.015093240093 1696.985
6 360.95 2165.7 36 411.016142191142 1754.684
7 344 2408 49 379.017191142191 2028.983
8 272.95 2183.6 64 347.01824009324 1836.582
9 264.5 2380.5 81 315.019289044289 2065.481
10 276 2760 100 283.020337995338 2476.98
11 303.7 3340.7 121 251.021386946387 3089.679
12 300 3600 144 219.022435897436 3380.978
26235.45 650

700

600

500

400

300
700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Y Forecasted Y
 SS MS F Significance F
3387.66935665 3387.669 0.19848 0.66544
170680.36731 17068.04
174068.036667

Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
94.2043938048 3.784936 0.003573 146.6571 566.458 146.6571 566.458
0.23330227088 0.445511 0.66544 -0.415891 0.623769 -0.415891 0.623769

MSD MPE MAPE SUMMARY OUTPUT

3768.62191363 9.707322 9.707322
340925.259152 51.99822 51.99822 Regression Statistics
889318.792162 65.03479 65.03479 Multiple R 0.917158
2485623.27575 76.84665 76.84665 R Square 0.841179
2879757.77377 79.29836 79.29836 Adjusted R 0.825297
3078915.44085 81.02156 81.02156 Standard E 52.57912
4116771.23864 84.26008 84.26008 Observatio 12
3373032.56082 84.10798 84.10798
4266210.56733 86.76668 86.76668 ANOVA
6135428.24598 89.74564 89.74564 df SS MS F Significance F
9546113.93196 92.48596 92.48596 Regression 1 146422.4 146422.4 52.96402 2.67E-05
11431009.289 93.91604 93.91604 Residual 10 27645.64 2764.564
Total 11 174068

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%
Intercept 603.0098 32.36021 18.6343 4.28E-09 530.9068
X Variable -31.99895 4.396887 -7.277638 2.67E-05 -41.79583
10 11 12 13
Significance F

Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
675.1129 530.9068 675.1129
-22.20208 -41.79583 -22.20208
Yt Yt-1 SUMMARY OUTPUT
8,055.00 0
7,536.75 8,055.00 Regression Statistics
7,154.60 7,536.75 Multiple R 0.228
7,100.00 7,154.60 R Square 0.051984
6,950.00 7,100.00 Adjusted R Square -0.042818
6,881.05 6,950.00 Standard Error 858.8118
6,815.00 6,881.05 Observations 12
5,555.05 6,815.00
5,800.00 5,555.05 ANOVA
5,899.00 5,800.00 df SS
5,500.00 5,899.00 Regression 1 404435.5
5,860.00 5,500.00 Residual 10 7375578
Total 11 7780013

Coefficients
Standard Error
Intercept 7153.429 797.4156
X Variable 1 -0.091946 0.124167

X Y XY X^2 Forecasted Y
1 8,055.00 8055 1 7784.81666666667
2 7,536.75 15073.5 4 7567.97803030303
3 7,154.60 21463.8 9 7351.1393939394
4 7,100.00 28400 16
5 6,950.00 34750 25
6 6,881.05 41286.3 36
7 6,815.00 47705 49
8 5,555.05 44440.4 64
9 5,800.00 52200 81
10 5,899.00 58990 100
11 5,500.00 60500 121
12 5,860.00 70320 144

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.929639
R Square 0.864229
Adjusted R 0.850652
Standard E 325.0072
Observatio 12
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 6723716 6723716 63.6536608919506 1.206E-05
Residual 10 1056297 105629.7
Total 11 7780013

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Intercept 8001.655 200.0281 40.00265 2.2793533834E-12 7555.965 8447.346
X Variable -216.8386 27.17847 -7.978324 1.20580229442E-05 -277.396 -156.2812
 MS F Significance F
404435.5 0.548344 0.476022
737557.8

t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
8.970766 4.261E-06 5376.676 8930.182 5376.676 8930.182
-0.740503 0.476022 -0.368606 0.184715 -0.368606 0.184715
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
7555.965 8447.346
-277.396 -156.2812
Yt Yt-1 SUMMARY OUTPUT
476.2 0
459.3 476.2 Regression Statistics
535.55 459.3 Multiple R 0.197481
489 535.55 R Square 0.038999
429 489 Adjusted R Square -0.057102
359.9 429 Standard Error 82.64379
335.25 359.9 Observations 12
334 335.25
296.3 334 ANOVA
308.7 296.3 df SS
334.15 308.7 Regression 1 2771.694
360 334.15 Residual 10 68299.96
Total 11 71071.66

Coefficients
Standard Error
Intercept 351.7603 69.1589
X Variable 1 0.113883 0.17877
 MS F Significance F
2771.694 0.405812 0.538412
6829.996

t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
5.086262 0.000473 197.6647 505.8559 197.6647 505.8559
0.637034 0.538412 -0.284442 0.512207 -0.284442 0.512207
Yt Yt-1 SUMMARY OUTPUT
2069.9 0
2169.95 2069.9 Regression Statistics
2115.35 2169.95 Multiple R 0.36268
1914.95 2115.35 R Square 0.131537
1679 1914.95 Adjusted R Square 0.044691
1525.1 1679 Standard Error 467.4267
1470 1525.1 Observations 12
1035.65 1470
1029.8 1035.65 ANOVA
943.65 1029.8 df SS
1069 943.65 Regression 1 330920.3
1024.65 1069 Residual 10 2184878
Total 11 2515798

Coefficients
Standard Error
Intercept 1117.537 341.7228
X Variable 1 0.272381 0.221324
 MS F Significance F
330920.3 1.514594 0.246601
218487.8

t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
3.270302 0.008426 356.131 1878.943 356.131 1878.943
1.230689 0.246601 -0.220759 0.76552 -0.220759 0.76552
Yt Yt-1 SUMMARY OUTPUT
694 0
629.7 694 Regression Statistics
531 629.7 Multiple R 0.176354
578.9 531 R Square 0.031101
540.95 578.9 Adjusted R Square -0.065789
465 540.95 Standard Error 98.35837
457.5 465 Observations 12
412.9 457.5
409 412.9 ANOVA
417.3 409 df SS
427.6 417.3 Regression 1 3105.393
425.45 427.6 Residual 10 96743.68
Total 11 99849.07

Coefficients
Standard Error
Intercept 544.1919 84.48807
X Variable 1 -0.097235 0.171624
 MS F Significance F
3105.393 0.320992 0.583503
9674.368

t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
6.441051 7.432E-05 355.9408 732.4431 355.9408 732.4431
-0.566561 0.583503 -0.479637 0.285166 -0.479637 0.285166
Yt-1 Yt-1 SUMMARY OUTPUT
679.2 0
784.4 679.2 Regression Statistics
614.2 784.4 Multiple R 0.034903
628.6 614.2 R Square 0.001218
633.5 628.6 Adjusted R Square -0.09866
683 633.5 Standard Error 58.30719
747.3 683 Observations 12
711.6 747.3
758 711.6 ANOVA
640 758 df SS
653.2 640 Regression 1 41.46639
666.1 653.2 Residual 10 33997.28
Total 11 34038.75

Coefficients
Standard Error
Intercept 677.3215 56.33008
X Variable 1 0.009457 0.085634
 MS F Significance F
41.46639 0.012197 0.914246
3399.728

t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
12.02415 2.867E-07 551.8102 802.8327 551.8102 802.8327
0.11044 0.914246 -0.181346 0.200261 -0.181346 0.200261
Yt Yt-1 SUMMARY OUTPUT
220 0
195.05 220 Regression Statistics
209.9 195.05 Multiple R 0.218807
214.15 209.9 R Square 0.047876
230.5 214.15 Adjusted R Square -0.047336
227.55 230.5 Standard Error 45.60763
237.5 227.55 Observations 12
182 237.5
192 182 ANOVA
190.15 192 df SS
259 190.15 Regression 1 1045.931
347.8 259 Residual 10 20800.56
Total 11 21846.49

Coefficients
Standard Error
Intercept 196.3521 43.11711
X Variable 1 0.148178 0.208964
 MS F Significance F
1045.931 0.502838 0.494456
2080.056

t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
4.553926 0.001052 100.2812 292.423 100.2812 292.423
0.709111 0.494456 -0.317421 0.613778 -0.317421 0.613778
Yt Yt-1 SUMMARY OUTPUT
698.85 0
769.55 698.85 Regression Statistics
790.1 769.55 Multiple R 0.376149
755 790.1 R Square 0.141488
869.5 755 Adjusted R Square 0.055637
832.85 869.5 Standard Error 88.03309
810.9 832.85 Observations 12
704 810.9
624.75 704 ANOVA
566 624.75 df SS
646.95 566 Regression 1 12772.16
693 646.95 Residual 10 77498.24
Total 11 90270.41

Coefficients
Standard Error
Intercept 630.5117 81.64691
X Variable 1 0.148146 0.115399
 MS F Significance F
12772.16 1.648059 0.228171
7749.824

t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
7.72242 1.602E-05 448.5911 812.4324 448.5911 812.4324
1.283767 0.228171 -0.10898 0.405272 -0.10898 0.405272
 EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHENING

Months At Ft(0.8) MAD MSD MPE MAPE

Jan 01, 2023 44456 44496 40 1600 -0.089977 0.089977
Feb 01, 2023 44940 44464 476 226576 1.05919 1.05919
Mar 01, 2023 45904 44844.8 1059.2 1121904.64 2.307424 2.307424
Apr 01, 2023 47814 45692.16 2121.84 4502204.986 4.437696 4.437696
May 01, 2023 51042 47389.63 3652.368 13339792 7.155613 7.155613
Aug 01, 2023 51092 50311.53 780.4736 609139.0403 1.527585 1.527585
Oct 01, 2023 51180 50935.91 244.0947 59582.23233 0.476934 0.476934
Sep 01, 2023 51602 51131.18 470.8189 221670.478 0.912404 0.912404
Jun 01, 2023 52194 51507.84 686.1638 470820.7451 1.314641 1.314641
Jul 01, 2023 52636 52056.77 579.2328 335510.5877 1.10045 1.10045
Nov 01, 2023 53013 52520.15 492.8466 242897.7234 0.929671 0.929671
Dec 01, 2023 56987 52914.43 4072.569 16585820.79 7.146488 7.146488
1222.967 3143126.602 2.35651 2.371506
Months At Ft(0.2) MAD MSD MPE MAPE
Jan 01, 2023 44456 44496 40 1600 -0.089977 0.089977
Feb 01, 2023 44940 44488 452 204304 1.005785 1.005785
Mar 01, 2023 45904 44578.4 1325.6 1757215.36 2.887766 2.887766
Apr 01, 2023 47814 44843.52 2970.48 8823751.4304 6.212574 6.212574
May 01, 2023 51042 45437.62 5604.384 31409120.019 10.97995 10.97995
Aug 01, 2023 51092 46558.49 4533.507 20552687.532 8.873223 8.873223
Oct 01, 2023 51180 47465.19 3714.806 13799781.835 7.258315 7.258315
Sep 01, 2023 51602 48208.16 3393.845 11518181.223 6.576963 6.576963
Jun 01, 2023 52194 48886.92 3307.076 10936749.596 6.336122 6.336122
Jul 01, 2023 52636 49548.34 3087.661 9533647.6666 5.866062 5.866062
Nov 01, 2023 53013 50165.87 2847.128 8106140.3498 5.370623 5.370623
Dec 01, 2023 56987 50735.3 6251.703 39083787.292 10.9704 10.9704