Wilkins regulator division unit sales per week by quarter

History through Q4 2004 Forecast Beginning Q1 2005

Revised October 7, 2004 Final File: FCSTMASTER

Prod Fiscal Year

Line Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total
PVB 1999 1,788 3,748 5,115 3,167 179,634
2000 2,097 4,008 5,532 3,123 191,880
2001 2,116 3,523 5,921 3,374 194,136
2002 2,352 4,092 6,824 3,968 224,072
2003 2,721 4,449 7,184 4,531 245,506
2004 3,029 5,786 9,451 4,231 292,465
2005 4,120 7,480 9,341 5,983 350,012
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

FIRE 1999 36 43 18 13 1,432

VALVE 2000 47 32 34 24 1,777
2001 21 45 19 38 1,608
2002 36 38 28 43 1,886
2003 42 27 25 11 1,357
2004 22 26 28 29 1,371
2005 43 51 51 51 2,550
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.289477921
R Square 0.083797467
Adjusted R Square 0.018354429
Standard Error 25547.65684
Observations 16

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 835736915.507 835736915.5 1.280464192 0.2768238972
Residual 14 9137558780.49 652682770
Total 15 9973295696

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept 1130.898745 52204.9539856 0.021662671 0.983022765 -110837.59161
X Variable 1 10824.01869 9565.43697807 1.131575977 0.276823897 -9691.8032013
Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
113099.3891 -110837.5916 113099.3891
31339.84059 -9691.803201 31339.840588
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.3749160923
R Square 0.1405620762
Adjusted R Square 0.0791736531
Standard Error 24743.582929
Observations 16

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 1401867149.92 1401867150 2.289716352 0.15247774409
Residual 14 8571428546.08 612244896.15
Total 15 9973295696

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept 89066.256481 20330.5865409 4.3808995034 0.000627473 45461.4851103
X Variable 1 -5529.293676 3654.08641996 -1.513180872 0.152477744 -13366.529586
Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
132671.0279 45461.48511 132671.02785
2307.942234 -13366.52959 2307.9422344
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.63415
R Square 0.402146
Adjusted R 0.359442
Standard E 20637.3
Observatio 16

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 4.01E+09 4.01E+09 9.417091 0.008334
Residual 14 5.96E+09 4.26E+08
Total 15 9.97E+09

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept -52782.57 37035.47 -1.42519 0.176015 -132216 26650.61 -132216 26650.61
X Variable 256.8022 83.68361 3.068728 0.008334 77.31873 436.2857 77.31873 436.2857
 PVB PVB PVB PVB PVB
Year Qtr ACTUAL Actual Yearly 12-720 34-720 1-720 34-420 1-420
2001 1 2,116 27,508 2,108 6,716 10,688 7,158 842
2001 2 3,523 45,799 2,516 11,510 21,688 7,034 3,050
2001 3 5,921 76,973 2,954 18,438 40,814 9,026 5,736
2001 4 3,374 43,862 2,224 10,456 19,510 7,254 4,414
2002 1 2,352 30,576 1,788 9,464 9,824 6,968 2,536
2002 2 4,092 53,196 2,512 12,942 21,848 9,156 6,740
2002 3 6,824 88,712 3,540 21,640 48,936 8,134 6,454
2002 4 3,968 51,584 3,666 11,650 24,640 6,958 4,676
2003 1 2,721 35,373 3,546 11,270 12,400 5,208 2,948
2003 2 4,449 57,837 5,596 15,322 23,692 6,806 6,424
2003 3 7,184 93,392 5,948 19,424 47,904 10,446 9,666
2003 4 4,531 58,903 4,892 13,310 26,990 7,960 5,754
2004 1 3,029 39,377 4,311 10,214 13,851 7,397 3,609
2004 2 5,786 75,218 6,637 20,983 31,507 9,043 7,049
2004 3 9,451 122,863 7,823 27,492 66,644 11,233 9,676
2004 4 4,231 55,003 6,652 19,535 17,337 7,496 3,976
 unemployme Banking Housing
Total nt rate Rates projects
27,512 3.9 9.5 357
45,798 4.233333333 8.6233333 348
76,968 4.4 7.34 461
43,858 4.833333333 6.5666667 429
30,580 5.533333333 5.1566667 366
53,198 5.7 4.75 369
88,704 5.833333333 4.75 475
51,590 5.733333333 4.75 459
35,372 5.866666667 4.45 403
57,840 5.833333333 4.25 375
93,388 6.133333333 4.24 490
58,906 6.133333333 4 511
39,382 5.866666667 4 472
75,219 5.666666667 4 425
122,868 5.566666667 4.0033333 540
54,996 5.433333333 4.42 532
 Fire Fire
Fire Fire Valve Fire Valve
PVB PVB PVB PVB PVB Valve Valve Z3000I Valve Z3004I
Year Qtr 12-720 34-720 1-720 34-420 1-420 Total Z2105 Z3000 L Z3004 L

2001 1 2,108 6,716 10,688 7,158 842 27,512 122 77 1 20 50

2001 2 2,516 11,510 21,688 7,034 3,050 45,798 139 240 - 144 67
2001 3 2,954 18,438 40,814 9,026 5,736 76,968 54 138 3 25 32
2001 4 2,224 10,456 19,510 7,254 4,414 43,858 78 275 36 59 49
2002 1 1,788 9,464 9,824 6,968 2,536 30,580 18 301 (35) 48 132
2002 2 2,512 12,942 21,848 9,156 6,740 53,198 224 133 - 35 103
2002 3 3,540 21,640 48,936 8,134 6,454 88,704 138 175 - 15 42
2002 4 3,666 11,650 24,640 6,958 4,676 51,590 193 251 10 50 63
2003 1 3,546 11,270 12,400 5,208 2,948 35,372 124 213 2 32 170
2003 2 5,596 15,322 23,692 6,806 6,424 57,840 112 150 3 46 40
2003 3 5,948 19,424 47,904 10,446 9,666 93,388 25 64 139 26 77
2003 4 4,892 13,310 26,990 7,960 5,754 58,906 37 57 3 18 22
2004 1 4,311 10,214 13,851 7,397 3,609 39,382 79 108 49 23 26
2004 2 6,637 20,983 31,507 9,043 7,049 75,219 71 105 52 26 90
2004 3 7,823 27,492 66,644 11,233 9,676 122,868 68 151 2 62 77
2004 4 6,652 19,535 17,337 7,496 3,976 54,996 54 114 84 44 86
2005 1 6,235 28,020 11,163 384 2,357 48,159 85 199 140 66 90
Total

270
590
252
497
464
495
370
557
541
351
331
137
285
344
360
382
580
 Forecast
12-mth
Part Q1 Unit Q2 Unit Q3 Unit Q4 Unit Plan Demand
No. Sales Sales Sales Sales Raw % Bill % 1,400/day
09/28/03 01/04/04 04/04/04 07/04/04
01/04/04 04/03/04 07/03/04 10/02/04

12-720 4,311 6,637 7,823 6,652 8.70% 10.60% 37,100

34-720 10,214 20,983 27,492 19,535 26.70% 25.10% 87,850
1-720 13,851 31,507 66,644 17,337 44.20% 44.10% 154,350
34-420 7,397 9,043 11,233 7,496 12.00% 12.00% 42,000
1-420 3,609 7,049 9,676 3,976 8.30% 8.20% 28,700

Total 39,382 75,219 122,868 54,996 100.00% 100 350,000

Days 64 65 64 63 250
Unit/Day 615 1,157 1,920 873 1,400

Total 292,463 350,000

Days 256 250
Unit/Day 1,142 1,400
 Forecast
12-mth
Q1 Unit Q2 Unit Q3 Unit Q4 Unit Plan Demand
Part No. Sales Sales Sales Sales Raw % Bill % 10.2/day
9/28/2003 1/4/2004 4/4/2004 7/4/2004
1/4/2004 4/3/2004 7/3/2004 10/2/2004

Z2105 79 71 68 54 19.8% 21.2% 540

Z3000 108 105 151 114 34.9% 38.8% 990
Z3000IL 49 52 2 84 13.6% 11.8% 300
Z3004 23 26 62 44 11.3% 8.2% 210
Z3004IL 26 90 77 86 20.4% 20.0% 510

Total 285 344 360 382 100.0% 100.0% 2,550

Days 64 65 64 63 250
Unit/Day 4 5 6 6 10

Total 1,371 2,550

Days 256 250
Unit/Day 5 10
Unemployment Rate
6.5
Oct-00 3.9 Q1 2001 3.90 6.0
Nov-00 3.9 Q2 2001 4.23 5.5
Dec-00 3.9 Q3 2001 4.40
5.0
Jan-01 4.2 Q4 2001 4.83
Feb-01 4.2 Q1 2002 5.53 4.5
Mar-01 4.3 Q2 2002 5.70 4.0
Apr-01 4.4 Q3 2002 5.83 3.5
May-01 4.3 Q4 2002 5.73
Jun-01 4.5 Q1 2003 5.87 3.0

Dec-01
Feb-02
Apr-02
Oct-00
Dec-00
Feb-01
Apr-01
Jun-01
Aug-01
Oct-01

Jun-02
Aug-02
Jul-01 4.6 Q2 2003 5.83
Aug-01 4.9 Q3 2003 6.13
Sep-01 5.0 Q4 2003 6.13
Seasonal Adjus
Oct-01 5.3 Q1 2004 5.87
Nov-01 5.6 Q2 2004 5.67
Dec-01 5.7 Q3 2004 5.57
Jan-02 5.7 Q4 2004 5.43 United States Unem
Feb-02 5.7 Q1 2004 5.43
7.00
Mar-02 5.7
6.00
Apr-02 5.9 5.00
May-02 5.8 4.00
Jun-02 5.8 3.00
Jul-02 5.8 2.00
Aug-02 5.7 1.00
Sep-02 5.7 0.00
Oct-02 5.7
01 01 01 01 02 02 02 02 03
Nov-02 5.9 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Dec-02 6.0 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1
Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q
Jan-03 5.8
Feb-03 5.9 Seasonal Adjuste
Mar-03 5.8
Apr-03 6.0
May-03 6.1
Jun-03 6.3
Jul-03 6.2
Aug-03 6.1
Sep-03 6.1
Oct-03 6.0
Nov-03 5.9
Dec-03 5.7
Jan-04 5.7
Feb-04 5.6
Mar-04 5.7
Apr-04 5.5
May-04 5.6
Jun-04 5.6
 Jul-04 5.5
Aug-04 5.4
Sep-04 5.4
Oct-04 5.5
Nov-04 5.4
Dec-04 5.4
 Dec-01
Feb-02
Apr-02

Apr-03
Jun-03

Dec-04
Jun-01
Aug-01
Oct-01

Jun-02
Aug-02
Oct-02
Dec-02
Feb-03

Aug-03
Oct-03
Dec-03
Feb-04
Apr-04
Jun-04
Aug-04
Oct-04
Seasonal Adjusted Unemployment Rate

United States Unemployment Rate

1 0 2 02 02 0 2 0 3 03 03 0 3 0 4 04 0 4 0 4 0 4
2 0 2 0 2 0 20 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1
Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q
Seasonal Adjusted Unemployment Rate
Bank Prime Loan
10.00
Oct-00 9.50 Q1 2001 9.50
9.00
Nov-00 9.50 Q2 2001 8.62
Dec-00 9.50 Q3 2001 7.34 8.00
Jan-01 9.05 Q4 2001 6.57
Feb-01 8.50 Q1 2002 5.16 7.00
Mar-01 8.32 Q2 2002 4.75
Apr-01 7.80 Q3 2002 4.75 6.00
May-01 7.24 Q4 2002 4.75
5.00
Jun-01 6.98 Q1 2003 4.45
Jul-01 6.75 Q2 2003 4.25 4.00
Aug-01 6.67 Q3 2003 4.24
Sep-01 6.28 Q4 2003 4.00 3.00
Oct-01 5.53 Q1 2004 4.00

Oct-00

Feb-01
Apr-01

Feb-02

Feb-03
Apr-03
Dec-00

Jun-01
Aug-01
Oct-01
Dec-01

Apr-02
Jun-02
Aug-02
Oct-02
Dec-02
Nov-01 5.10 Q2 2004 4.00
Dec-01 4.84 Q3 2004 4.00
Jan-02 4.75 Q4 2004 4.42 Bank Prime Rate
Feb-02 4.75 Q1 2004 4.94 B an k P rim e L o an R ate
Mar-02 4.75
Apr-02 4.75
May-02 4.75
Jun-02 4.75
Jul-02 4.75
Aug-02 4.75 Average Quarterly Rate of
Sep-02 4.75 Interest in Money and Capita
Oct-02 4.75
Nov-02 4.35 10.00
8.00
Dec-02 4.25
6.00
Jan-03 4.25
4.00
Feb-03 4.25
2.00
Mar-03 4.25
0.00
Apr-03 4.25
May-03 4.25
Jun-03 4.22
Jul-03 4.00 Bank Prime Loan
Aug-03 4.00
Sep-03 4.00
Oct-03 4.00
Nov-03 4.00
Dec-03 4.00
Jan-04 4.00
Feb-04 4.00
Mar-04 4.00
Apr-04 4.00
May-04 4.00
Jun-04 4.01
 Jul-04 4.25
Aug-04 4.43
Sep-04 4.58
Oct-04 4.75
Nov-04 4.93
Dec-04 5.15
 Feb-02
Apr-02
Jun-02
Aug-02
Oct-02
Dec-02
Feb-03

age Quarterly Rate of

Bank Prime Rate
Apr-03
Jun-03
Aug-03

Bank Prime Loan Rate

Oct-03
Dec-03

est in Money and Capital Markets

Feb-04
Apr-04
Jun-04
Aug-04
Oct-04
Dec-04
 Housing Starts

Single Units Multi-Units Total 600

1 ### 275 82 357
500
2 Jan-01 274 74 348
3 ### 374 87 461 400
4 Jul-01 341 88 429 300
5 ### 285 81 366
6 Jan-02 293 76 369 200
7 ### 386 89 475 100
8 Jul-02 361 98 459
0
9 ### 319 84 403

Jul-01
Apr-

Oct-

Jan-

Apr-

Jan-
Oct-

Jan-

Apr-

Jul-02
Oct-

Jan-

Jul-03
Oct-
03
01

02
### Jan-03 304 71 375

01

03

03
00

01

02

02
### ### 406 84 490
Single Units Multi-Units
### Jul-03 412 99 511 Total
### ### 377 95 472
### Jan-04 345 80 425
### ### 456 84 540
### Jul-04 440 92 532
### ### 370 90 460
 Oct-
02
Jan-
03
Apr-
03
Jul-03
Oct-
03

Multi-Units
Jan-
04
Apr-
04
Jul-04
Oct-
04
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9402661155
R Square 0.884100368
Adjusted R Square 0.85512546
Standard Error 754.96427448
Observations 16

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 52173931.3311 17391310.444 30.51262037 6.7454965E-06
Residual 12 6839652.6689 569971.05574
Total 15 59013584

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept 17798.08156 7367.74056611 2.4156770179 0.032573515 1745.15388864
X Variable 1 -2117.588311 983.844871856 -2.152359962 0.052421915 -4261.2021398
X Variable 2 0.7634707062 0.090661495 8.4211131328 2.215254E-06 0.56593627772
X Variable 3 -955.567242 390.471580566 -2.447213292 0.030749544 -1806.3317313

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Y Residuals

1 2080.1562465 35.8437535216
2 3286.2107097 236.789290309
3 5990.3933709 -69.3933708597
4 3867.9473525 -493.947352506
5 2953.4817552 -601.481755249
6 4317.5867436 -225.586743581
7 6121.0436055 702.956394517
8 4152.3300997 -184.330099699
9 3204.6071922 -483.607192192
10 4785.5842993 -336.5842993
11 6247.9558599 936.044140071
12 4451.8042145 79.1957854884
13 3869.7614286 -840.761428589
14 6398.1678277 -612.167827654
15 9404.861573 46.1384269567
16 2420.1077212 1810.89227877
 Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
33851.009231 1745.1538886 33851.009231
26.025518562 -4261.20214 26.025518562
0.9610051346 0.5659362777 0.9610051346
-104.8027526 -1806.331731 -104.8027526
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.2635600958
R Square 0.0694639241
Adjusted R Square -0.163170095
Standard Error 10.373650271
Observations 16

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 96.3985606657 32.132853555 0.298597447 0.82578589707
Residual 12 1291.35143933 107.61261994
Total 15 1387.75

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept 7.7067793617 101.237060486 0.0761260681 0.940573264 -212.86982686
X Variable 1 3.3458414075 13.5186034181 0.2474990429 0.808706024 -26.108665159
X Variable 2 -0.000989667 0.00124574192 -0.794440095 0.442367821 -0.0037039058
X Variable 3 1.5785463008 5.36530767676 0.2942135654 0.773621927 -10.1114549

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Y Residuals

1 33.653655977 -12.6536559772
2 31.992615593 13.0073844069
3 28.151232495 -9.1512324951
4 30.900047644 7.0999523557
5 32.026836685 3.9731633145
6 30.220513611 7.7794863892
7 27.962854662 0.03714533777
8 30.454760405 12.545239595
9 31.66142386 10.3385761395
10 29.524041412 -2.52404141151
11 27.805268234 -2.80526823366
12 30.052004538 -19.0520045378
13 30.646260489 -8.64626048864
14 27.248579389 -1.24857938885
15 23.292126318 4.70787368188
16 32.407778688 -3.40777868773
Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
228.2833856 -212.8698269 228.28338559
32.80034797 -26.10866516 32.800347974
0.001724571 -0.003703906 0.0017245711
13.2685475 -10.1114549 13.268547502
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.1432576767
R Square 0.0205227619
Adjusted R Square -0.130166044
Standard Error 10.22541907
Observations 16

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 28.4804628726 14.240231436 0.136193009 0.87390306315
Residual 13 1359.26953713 104.55919516
Total 15 1387.75

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept -1.396519499 99.149175695 -0.014085034 0.988976009 -215.59529099
X Variable 1 3.740624869 13.3164273806 0.2809030352 0.783205726 -25.02776746
X Variable 2 2.0773210301 5.25230831925 0.3955063 0.698883178 -9.2696012369

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Y Residuals

1 32.926467275 -11.9264672753
2 32.352224127 12.6477758733
3 30.309766285 -11.3097662849
4 30.324242131 7.67575786902
5 30.013656887 5.98634311309
6 29.792317147 8.20768285325
7 30.291067128 -2.29106712804
8 29.917004641 13.0829953589
9 29.792558317 12.2074416829
10 29.252406613 -2.25240661301
11 30.353820863 -5.35382086341
12 29.855263816 -18.8552638162
13 28.857763854 -6.85776385362
14 28.10963888 -2.10963887982
15 27.742500796 0.25749920434
16 28.109301241 0.89069875949
Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
212.802252 -215.595291 212.80225199
32.5090172 -25.02776746 32.509017198
13.4242433 -9.269601237 13.424243297
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9402661155
R Square 0.884100368
Adjusted R Square 0.85512546
Standard Error 754.96427448
Observations 16

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 52173931.3311 17391310.444 30.51262037 6.7454965E-06
Residual 12 6839652.6689 569971.05574
Total 15 59013584

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept 17798.08156 7367.74056611 2.4156770179 0.032573515 1745.15388864
unemployment rate -2117.5883106 983.844871856 -2.152359962 0.052421915 -4261.2021398
Housing -955.56724199 390.471580566 -2.447213292 0.030749544 -1806.3317313
Housing projects 0.7634707062 0.090661495 8.4211131328 2.215254E-06 0.56593627772

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted pvb Residuals

1 2080.1562465 35.8437535216
2 3286.2107097 236.789290309
3 5990.3933709 -69.3933708597
4 3867.9473525 -493.947352506
5 2953.4817552 -601.481755249
6 4317.5867436 -225.586743581
7 6121.0436055 702.956394517
8 4152.3300997 -184.330099699
9 3204.6071922 -483.607192192
10 4785.5842993 -336.5842993
11 6247.9558599 936.044140071
12 4451.8042145 79.1957854884
13 3869.7614286 -840.761428589
14 6398.1678277 -612.167827654
15 9404.861573 46.1384269567
16 2420.1077212 1810.89227877
 Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
33851.009231 1745.1538886 33851.009231
26.025518562 -4261.20214 26.025518562
-104.8027526 -1806.331731 -104.8027526
0.9610051346 0.5659362777 0.9610051346
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.263560095798057
R Square 0.069463924097081
Adjusted R Square -0.163170094878649
Standard Error 10.3736502709761
Observations 16

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 96.3985606657 32.132853555 0.298597447 0.82578589707
Residual 12 1291.35143933 107.61261994
Total 15 1387.75

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept 7.7067793617181 101.237060486 0.0761260681 0.940573264 -212.86982686
unemployment rate 3.34584140754766 13.5186034181 0.2474990429 0.808706024 -26.108665159
Housing 1.57854630079002 5.36530767676 0.2942135654 0.773621927 -10.1114549
Housing projects -0.000989667326182 0.00124574192 -0.794440095 0.442367821 -0.0037039058

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Fire Valve Residuals

1 33.6536559771536 -12.6536559772
2 31.9926155930642 13.0073844069
3 28.1512324950989 -9.1512324951
4 30.9000476442952 7.0999523557
5 32.0268366854964 3.9731633145
6 30.220513610799 7.7794863892
7 27.9628546622279 0.03714533777
8 30.4547604050485 12.545239595
9 31.6614238604639 10.3385761395
10 29.5240414115148 -2.52404141151
11 27.8052682336638 -2.80526823366
12 30.0520045378347 -19.0520045378
13 30.6462604886444 -8.64626048864
14 27.2485793888514 -1.24857938885
15 23.2921263181166 4.70787368188
16 32.4077786877266 -3.40777868773
Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
228.2833856 -212.8698269 228.28338559
32.80034797 -26.10866516 32.800347974
13.2685475 -10.1114549 13.268547502
0.001724571 -0.003703906 0.0017245711
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.940266
R Square 0.8841
Adjusted R 0.855125
Standard E 754.9643
Observatio 16

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 52173931 17391310 30.51262 6.75E-06
Residual 12 6839653 569971.1
Total 15 59013584

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 17798.08 7367.741 2.415677 0.032574 1745.154 33851.01 1745.154 33851.01
unemployme -2117.588 983.8449 -2.15236 0.052422 -4261.202 26.02552 -4261.202 26.02552
Housing -955.5672 390.4716 -2.447213 0.03075 -1806.332 -104.8028 -1806.332 -104.8028
Housing pr 0.763471 0.090661 8.421113 2.22E-06 0.565936 0.961005 0.565936 0.961005

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation
Predicted pvbResiduals
1 2080.156 35.84375
2 3286.211 236.7893
3 5990.393 -69.39337
4 3867.947 -493.9474
5 2953.482 -601.4818
6 4317.587 -225.5867
7 6121.044 702.9564
8 4152.33 -184.3301
9 3204.607 -483.6072
10 4785.584 -336.5843
11 6247.956 936.0441
12 4451.804 79.19579
13 3869.761 -840.7614
14 6398.168 -612.1678
15 9404.862 46.13843
16 2420.108 1810.892
 Independent Dependent
Housing
Fire Valve pvb unemployment rate Housing projects
Q1 2001 21 2,116 3.9 9.5 2,120
Q2 2001 45 3,523 4.233333333 8.62333 3,527
Q3 2001 19 5,921 4.4 7.34 5,925
Q4 2001 38 3,374 4.833333333 6.56667 3,379
Q1 2002 36 2,352 5.533333333 5.15667 2,358
Q2 2002 38 4,092 5.7 4.75 4,098
Q3 2002 28 6,824 5.833333333 4.75 6,830
Q4 2002 43 3,968 5.733333333 4.75 3,974
Q1 2003 42 2,721 5.866666667 4.45 2,727
Q2 2003 27 4,449 5.833333333 4.25 4,455
Q3 2003 25 7,184 6.133333333 4.24 7,190
Q4 2003 11 4,531 6.133333333 4 4,537
Q1 2004 22 3,029 5.866666667 4 3,035
Q2 2004 26 5,786 5.666666667 4 5,792
Q3 2004 28 9,451 5.566666667 4.00333 9,457
Q4 2004 29 4,231 5.433333333 4.42 460
 PVB 3 Period Moving average
Q1 2001 2,116
Q2 2001 3,523
Q3 2001 5,921 3,853
Q4 2001 3,374 4,273
Q1 2002 2,352 3,882
Q2 2002 4,092 3,273
Q3 2002 6,824 4,423
Q4 2002 3,968 4,961
Q1 2003 2,721 4,504
Q2 2003 4,449 3,713
Q3 2003 7,184 4,785
Q4 2003 4,531 5,388
Q1 2004 3,029 4,915
Q2 2004 5,786 4,449
Q3 2004 9,451 6,089
Q4 2004 4,231 6,489