2020 Annual Economic Survey 1

CENTRAL BANK OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
ANNUAL ECONOMIC SURVEY 2020
1
Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago
P.O. Box 1250
Port of Spain
Republic of Trinidad and Tobago
www.central-bank.org.tt
© Copyright 2020 Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago
ISSN 18170-9967
Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago

Review of the National Economy
3
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER ONE – OVERVIEW OF ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
Overview of Economic Developments in 2020 4
Outlook for 2021 7
CHAPTER TWO – DOMESTIC ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

Quarterly Index of Economic Activity 8
CHAPTER THREE – LABOUR MARKET

Unemployment 10
Labour Productivity 12
Sectoral Wages 12
CHAPTER FOUR – PRICES

Inflation 13
Producers’ Prices 14
Building Materials Prices 14
CHAPTER FIVE – FISCAL OPERATIONS

Fiscal Operations 15
Public Sector Debt 19
CHAPTER SIX – MONETARY AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS

Monetary Policy 26
Foreign Exchange Market 27
CHAPTER SEVEN – CAPITAL MARKETS

Stock Market 28
Primary Debt Market 29
Central Government Secondary Bond Market, Yield Curve and Bond Index 33
Mutual Funds Industry 34
CHAPTER EIGHT – INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND PAYMENTS

Balance of Payments 35
International Investment Position 39
Effective Exchange Rates 40
CHAPTER NINE – INTERNATIONAL AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

International Economic Developments 41
Advanced Economies 41
Emerging Markets and Devloping Economies (EMDEs) 46
Regional Economic Developments 47
CHAPTER TEN – INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY MARKETS 49

Energy Commodity Prices Index 49
International Food Prices
TABLE OF CONTENTS CONTINUED ANNUAL ECONOMIC SURVEY 2020
CHARTS, FIGURES AND TABLES ON SELECTED ECONOMIC INDICATORS

CHARTS
Chart 1 Real GDP Growth 1
Chart 2 Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices 1
Chart 3 Labour Force and Unemployment 1
Chart 4 Per Cent Changes in the Retail Price Index 1
Chart 5 Fiscal Balances in Per Cent of GDP 1
Chart 6 Public Sector Debt 1
Chart 7 Aggregate Mutual Fund Values vs. Commercial Banks’ Deposits 2
Chart 8 Basic Prime Lending Rate, Repo Rate and 3-Month Treasury Bill Rate 2
Chart 9 Credit to the Private Sector 2
Chart 10 Commercial Banks’ Excess Reserves 2
Chart 11 Authorised Dealers Purchases and Sales of Foreign Currency 2
Chart 12 Gross Official Reserves and Import Cover 2
Chart 13 Monetary Policy Actions 3
FIGURES
Figure 1 Trinidad and Tobago Stock Index Returns 28
Figure 2 Trinidad and Tobago Stock Market Sub-Index Returns 29
Figure 3 Trinidad and Tobago Individual Stock Returns 29
Figure 4 Annual Primary Debt Security Activity 29
Figure 5 Annual Secondary Government Debt Security Activity 33
Figure 6 Trinidad and Tobago Government Yield Curve 33
Figure 7 Mutual Funds - Aggregate Fund Value 34
Figure 8 Trade Weighted Real and Nominal Effective Exchange Rate Indices 40
TABLES
Table 1 Trinidad and Tobago: Selected Economic Indicators 6
Table 2 Quarterly Index of Real Economic Activity 9
Table 3 Manufacturing Sector Capacity Utilisation Rate 9
Table 4 Labour Statistics 11
Table 5 The Sectoral Distribution of Employment 11
Table 6 Wage Increases for 2020 12
Table 7 Annual Average Movement of Selected Categories of the Domestic Retail 14
Price Index
Table 8 Summary of Central Government Finances 16
Table 9 Summary of Central Government Fiscal Operations 17
Table 10 Energy-Based Government Revenues 18
Table 11 Central Government Recurrent Expenditure: A Functional Classification 19
Table 12 Total Public Sector Debt Outstanding 21
Table 13A Public Sector Borrowings Undertaken in FY2019/20 22
Table 13B Impact of FY2019/20 Borrowings on Borrowing Limits 25
Table 14 Primary Debt Security Activity 30
Table 15A Trinidad and Tobago: Summary Balance of Payments 37
Table 15B Trinidad and Tobago: International Investment Position 39
Table 16 Advanced Economies: Real GDP Growth 42
Table 17 Emerging Economies: Real GDP Growth 46
Table 18 Selected LAC: Real GDP Growth 48
TABLE OF CONTENTS CONTINUED ANNUAL ECONOMIC SURVEY 2020
BOXES
Box 1: The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Oil Prices and Stock Markets 43
APPENDICES
APPENDIX ONE – ECONOMIC STATISTICS

Tables A.1 – A.36
APPENDIX TWO – FEATURE ARTICLE

Modelling the Import Demand Function: The Case of Trinidad and Tobago
APPENDIX THREE – CALENDAR OF KEY ECONOMIC EVENTS

January – December 2020
CHARTS ON SELECT ECONOMIC INDICATORS

CHART 1 CHART 2
REAL GDP GROWTH CRUDE OIL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES
2014 – 2019P 2016-2020
8. 0 80.0 4. 5
6. 0
70.0 Henry 4. 0
4. 0 3. 5
US$ Per mmbtu

US$ Per Barrel
2. 0 60.0
3. 0
0. 0
50.0
Per Cent
-2.0 2. 5
-4.0 40.0 WTI 2. 0
-6.0 1. 5
-8.0 30.0
1. 0
-10. 0
20.0
-12. 0 0. 5
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019p 10.0 0. 0
Total Energy Non-Energy 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Central Statistical Office Source: Bloomberg

NOTE: The growth rates for Q1 2019 are quarter-on-quarter growth rates
of quarterly GDP measured at constant producer prices.
p Provisional.
CHART 3 CHART 4
LABOUR FORCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT PER CENT CHANGES IN THE RETAIL PRICE INDEX
2014 - JUNE 2019 2016-2020
(YEAR-ON-YEAR PER CENT CHANGE)
700.0 5. 0 12.0
650.0 10.0
4. 5
Thousand Persons
600.0 8. 0
Per Cent
4. 0
Per Cent
6. 0
550.0
3. 5 4. 0
500.0
2. 0
450.0 3. 0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Jan - 0. 0
Labour Force (left axis)

Jun -2.0
2019 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Employment (left axis)
Unemployment Rate (right axis) Headline Food Core
Source: Central Statistical Office Source: Central Statistical Office

NOTE: The growth rates for Q1 2019 are quarter-on-quarter growth rates
of quarterly GDP measured at constant producer prices.
p Provisional.
CHART 5 CHART 6
FISCAL BALANCES IN PER CENT OF GDP PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT
2016/17-2020/21 2015/16 - 2019/20
40.0 140,000.0 90.0
30.0 120,000.0 80.0
20.0 100,000.0 70.0

Per Cent of GDP
TT$ Millions
Per Cent
80,000.0 60.0
10.0
60,000.0 50.0
0. 0
40,000.0 40.0
-10. 0
20,000.0 30.0
-20. 0 0. 0 20.0
2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019r 2019/2020re 2020/2021b 2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019r 2019/2020p
Expenditure/GDP Net Public Sector Debt
Non-Energy Receipts/GDP
Central Government External Debt
Energy Revenue/GDP
Ove rall Fiscal Balance/GDP Net Public Sector Debt/GDP (right axis)
Source: Ministry of Finance Sources: Ministry of Finance and Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago
r Revised. NOTE: Net public sector debt excludes all sterilised debt (OMO Bills,
re Revised estimates. Treasury Notes, Treasury Bonds & Liquidity Absorption bonds).
b Budgeted r Revised.
p Provisional. 1
CHARTS ON SELECT ECONOMIC INDICATORS CONTINUED

CHART 7 CHART 8
AGGREGATE MUTUAL FUND VALUES VS. BASIC PRIME LENDING RATE, REPO RATE AND 3
COMMERCIAL BANKS’ DEPOSITS, 2016-2020 MTH TREASURY BILL RATE, 2016-2020
140,000 12.0
120,000 10.0
100,000 8. 0
TT$ Millions
Per Cent
80,000 6. 0
60,000 4. 0
40,000 2. 0
20,000 0. 0
0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Commercial Bank s Basic Prime Le nding Rate
Repo Rate
Aggregate Fund Values Total Deposits 3 MTH Treasury Bill Rate
Source: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago Source: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago
CHART 9 CHART 10
CREDIT TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR, 2016-2020 COMMERCIAL BANKS’ EXCESS RESERVES
(YEAR-ON-YEAR PER CENT CHANGE) JANUARY – DECEMBER 2020
23.0 15,500.0
18.0 13,500.0
13.0 11,500.0
8. 0
TT$ Millions
Per Cent
9, 500.0
3. 0
7, 500.0
-2.0
5, 500.0
-7.0
-12. 0 3, 500.0
-17. 0 1, 500.0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-500.0
Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec-
Consumer Businesses Real Estate 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Source: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago Source: Central Statistical Office
CHART 11 CHART 12
AUTHORISED DEALERS PURCHASES AND SALES OF GROSS OFFICIAL RESERVES AND IMPORT COVER
FOREIGN CURRENCY, 2016-2020 2015-2020
7, 000 12.0
6, 000
10.0 Gross Import Cover
5, 000 Official (months)
Reserves
US$ Millions
4, 000 8. 0
(In US$
3, 000 Billions)
6. 0
2, 000
4. 0
1, 000
0 2. 0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Purchases from Central Ba nk 0. 0
Purchases from Publ ic
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Sales to Public
Source: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago Source: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago
2
CHARTS ON SELECT ECONOMIC INDICATORS CONTINUED

CHART 13
MONETARY POLICY ACTIONS
2017-2020
Liquidity Management Central Bank Policy Rate

Measures Decisions
March 2017: $1.5 billion 1-year special deposit Jan 2017: Repo rate maintained at 4.75 per cent.
matured and was not rolled over.
August 2018: The secondary reserve requirement Mar 2017: Repo rate maintained at 4.75 per cent.
was discontinued.
March 2020: The primary reserve requirement on May 2017: Repo rate maintained at 4.75 per cent.
commercial bank deposits was
decreased by 3.0 per cent to
14.0 per cent Jul 2017: Repo rate maintained at 4.75 per cent.
Sep 2017: Repo rate maintained at 4.75 per cent.
Nov 2017: Repo rate maintained at 4.75 per cent.
Dec 2017: Repo rate maintained at 4.75 per cent.
Jan 2018: Repo rate maintained at 4.75 per cent.
Mar 2018: Repo rate maintained at 4.75 per cent.
Jun 2018: Repo rate increased to 5.00 per cent.
Mar 2019: Repo rate maintained at 5.00 per cent.
Jun 2019: Repo rate maintained at 5.00 per cent.
Mar 2020: Repo rate lowered to 3.50 per cent.
Jun 2020: Repo rate maintained at 3.50 per cent.
3
CHAPTER ONE – OVERVIEW OF ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN 2020 The pandemic also caused significant disruptions

in the Trinidad and Tobago economy, particularly
The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) created within an already stressed energy sector.
unparalleled shocks globally in 2020. The virus Preliminary indications suggest that, following a
upended economic and social progress, infecting contraction in real economic activity in 2019,
approximately 80.0 million people and killing just output declined sharply in 2020, as reduced
under two million during the year1. To contain the global demand for energy products combined with
spread of the virus, countries implemented strict domestic production challenges impeded the local
lockdown measures such as nationwide closures of energy sector. Additionally, public health restrictions
non-essential businesses (bars, restaurants, theatres, to slow the spread of the virus suppressed non-
etc.) schools and public services. The intensity energy sector activity. Ahead of the release of
of these efforts, coupled with border restrictions, official data from the Central Statistical Office, the
slowed domestic and external demand. Capital flow Central Bank’s Quarterly Index of Real Economic
reversals and depressed commodity prices further Activity (QIEA)2 (2012=100) suggests that domestic
exacerbated the global economic fallout, particularly economic activity declined by 7.9 per cent during
for emerging market economies. However, swift 2020. Based on the QIEA, energy sector activity fell
policy actions by fiscal and monetary authorities by 13.8 per cent, while non-energy sector activity
reduced some contagion effects and protected contracted by 4.2 per cent.
more economically vulnerable households and
businesses. Moreover, multilateral co-operation and Restrictions on business activity contributed
the channeling of aid from advanced economies to considerable “slack” in the domestic labour
helped reduce pressure on health systems in poorer market and kept inflation subdued in 2020.
countries. Labour force adjustments resulted in retrenchments,
temporary layoffs or reductions in working hours.
No region avoided the unprecedented challenges Labour market slack was also reflected in fewer
of the pandemic. The International Monetary Fund man-hours worked3 during the first three quarters of
(IMF), in its January 2021 World Economic Outlook 2020. Amidst muted economic activity, the Central
(WEO) Update, estimates the global economy Statistical Office’s Index of Retail Prices shows that
contracted by 3.5 per cent in 2020 following an headline inflation slowed to an average of 0.6 per
expansion of 2.9 per cent in 2019. In the United cent in 2020, down from 1.0 per cent in 2019.
States (US), economic activity contracted by 3.4 per While core inflation slowed to average 0.1 per
cent, while the United Kingdom (UK) experienced cent during the calendar year 2020, food inflation
a more severe economic downturn of 10.0 per accelerated mainly as a result of supply challenges
cent. Elsewhere, real output within the Euro associated with COVID-19 conditions.
area contracted by 7.2 per cent in 2020 with the
Japanese economy recording its first contraction Lower revenue collections and higher expenditure
(5.1 per cent) in almost a decade. Among Emerging due to costs associated with the pandemic resulted
Market Developing Economies (EMDEs), economic in a larger fiscal deficit for FY2019/20 when
growth in India, Brazil and Russia all declined over compared to the year earlier. Revised estimates
the year as consumption and investment activity from the Ministry of Finance showed a deficit of
decreased, coupled with depressed international $16.8 billion (11.2 per cent of GDP) for FY2019/20.
commodity prices. However, real GDP growth in Total revenue reached $34.1 billion for FY2019/20,
China averaged 2.3 per cent due in part to an earlier while aggregate expenditure amounted to $50.8
than expected resumption in the manufacturing billion. Over the 12 months to September 2020, the
sector as well as an increase in external demand for Central Government financed the deficit through
medical supplies. Meanwhile, growth in the Latin domestic and external borrowings, and drawdowns
America and Caribbean (LAC) region was stymied from the Heritage and Stabilisation Fund (HSF).
by international border controls, a collapse of Public sector debt outstanding (excluding debt issued
tourism activity as well as lower commodity prices. for sterilisation purposes) amounted to $121.3 billion
(80.9 per cent of GDP) at the end of FY2019/20.
1
World Health Organization (WHO) Weekly Epidemiological Report on COVID-19.
2
The Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago compiles a quarterly index of real economic activity (QIEA) on the basis of industries
and establishments that have been classified according to the International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic
Activities, revision 4 (ISIC Rev 4).
3
‘Man-hours worked’ refers to changes in the Index of Hours Worked produced by the Central Statistical Office and is based on
data for the manufacturing, energy, electricity, and water sectors. 4
For most of 2020, monetary policy mainly focused Trinidad and Tobago’s international trade was
on managing the fallout from COVID-19. On also negatively affected by COVID-19, due to
March 17, 2020, five days after the first case of the global trade disruptions as well as domestic
virus was reported in the country, the Bank lowered containment measures. The current account
the Repo rate by 150 basis points to 3.50 per cent surplus narrowed during the first nine months of
and the primary reserve requirement on commercial 2020 as the fall-off in export earnings overshadowed
bank deposits by 300 basis points to 14.0 per cent. the reduction in imports. The sharp deterioration in
These monetary measures eased credit market the trade balance was primarily attributed to the
conditions by increasing banking sector liquidity decline in energy exports. At the end of December
levels and reducing lending rates in the latter half 2020, Trinidad and Tobago’s gross official reserves
of 2020. However, the favourable conditions did stood at US$6,953.8 million (8.5 months of import
little to boost the demand for credit, as the major cover), an improvement of US$24.8 million from
categories of credit – business, consumer and real- the level recorded at the end of 2019. Draw-downs
estate – either declined or slowed. Weaker demand from the Heritage and Stabilisation Fund (HSF), and
conditions due to restrictions on commerce and external borrowings, helped to boost the reserves
mobility, coupled with the uncertainty surrounding level in 2020.
the economic recovery from COVID-19, dampened
the demand for credit in 2020.
5
TABLE 1
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO SELECTED ECONOMIC INDICATORS
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Real GDP Growth (%) (2000 = 100)1 -5.6 -3.0 0.1 -1.2 n.a.
Energy Sector -9.7 0.5 -3.5 -4.5 n.a.

Non-Energy Sector -3.0 -3.4 0.4 1.7 n.a.
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing -7.3 7.9 -9.6 -3.3 n.a.
Trade and Repairs -6.9 -10.5 -2.0 2.4 n.a.
Construction -4.2 -3.8 -0.1 -5.4 n.a.
Financial and Insurance Activities 2.5 4.6 0.0 3.9 n.a.
Inflation Rate (%)2

(period average) 3.1 1.9 1.0 1.0 0.6
(end of period) 3.1 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.8
Unemployment Rate (%)3 4.0 4.8 3.9 4.2* n.a.
(Per Cent of GDP)
Overall Central Government Operations -5.3 -9.0 -3.6 -2.6r -11.2re

Surplus (+)/Deficit (-), (end of fiscal year)
Public Sector Debt, (end of fiscal year)4 64.5 67.7 60.4 65.5r 80.9p
Central Government External Debt, (end of fiscal year) 14.1 15.6 15.6 16.7r 21.1p
Balance of Payments Current Account Balance -3.5 6.3 6.8 4.6 2.3**
Surplus (+)/Deficit (-)
Memorandum Items:
Central Government External Debt in US$M 3,214.4 3,535.8 3,695.8 3,939.4 4,707.3
(end of fiscal year)
Debt Service Ratio (fiscal year; %)5 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.9 9.7
W.T.I. (US$/barrel, annual average) 43.2 50.9 64.8 57.0 39.3
Henry Hub (US$/mmbtu, annual average) 2.5 3.0 3.2 2.6 2.0
Net Official Reserves (US$ Mn)6 9,465.8 8,369.8 7,575.0 6,929.0 6,953.8
Sources: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago, Central Statistical Office and Ministry of Finance
1 Real GDP growth rates are sourced from the Central Statistical Office.
2 Changes in the Index of Retail Prices (RPI), January 2015 = 100.
3 This represents the average of two quarters.
4 Includes the external and internal debt of the Central Government, as well as contingent liabilities but excludes Treasury Bills,
OMO Bills and Notes, Treasury Bonds and Liquidity Bonds.
5 This is defined as the ratio of external Central Government debt service to exports of goods and non-factor services.
6 International reserves have been revised to include Trinidad and Tobago’s reserve position in the IMF. International reserves
are defined as external assets that are readily available to and controlled by monetary authorities for direct financing of
payments imbalances, for indirectly regulating the magnitudes of such imbalances through intervention in exchange markets
and for other purposes. Typically, they include securities, gold, IMF special drawing rights (SDRs), a country’s holding of foreign
currency and deposits, reserve position in the IMF, and other claims (Balance of Payments Manual 6th Edition Paragraph 6.64).
* For the first two quarters of 2019.
** For the period January to September 2020.
n.a. Not Available.
r Revised.
re Revised estimates.
p Provisional.
6
OUTLOOK FOR 2021 The domestic economy is slowly starting to

recover from COVID-19. As the economy emerges
Despite the uncertainty surrounding this evolving from public health restrictions and persons become
health crisis, the IMF, in its January 2021 WEO more accustomed with health protocols, the
Update, was more optimistic than its previously non-energy sector is expected to show signs of
revised projections. The Fund anticipates a partial improvement. However, activities in industries such
recovery in 2021, with global growth rebounding as entertainment, recreation and tourism may take
to 5.5 per cent. Global energy commodity prices longer to recover. As part of its fiscal commitment for
are also expected to recover in 2021 from the FY2020/21, the Government of Trinidad and Tobago
lows experienced in 2020. The initial shock to will continue to fund existing support measures to
commodity markets from the pandemic has since mitigate the financial challenges of those affected by
dissipated and energy markets should strengthen the economic fall-out related to COVID-19. The
going forward as fuel consumption rebounds, health sector will also require additional resources
particularly in light of the uncharacteristically cold in order to administer the vaccines, first to essential
weather in southern parts of the US. However, workers and then the general public. Business
despite recent vaccine approvals, new variants of activity is likely to improve over the medium term
the virus and the unequitable access to vaccines as the vaccination process quickens and lockdown
are creating greater uncertainty regarding the future measures are lifted.
path of global economic growth.
7
CHAPTER TWO – DOMESTIC ECONOMIC ACTIVITY4
QUARTERLY INDEX OF REAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY production. Methanol production, which fell by 24.9
per cent during the period, was adversely affected by
The measures implemented to contain the spread the suspension of operations at the Proman TTMC
of COVID-19 negatively impacted the domestic II (M3) facility, the Caribbean Methanol Company
economy in 2020. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) plant, as well as the temporary closure of the Atlas
data for 2020 is not yet available from the Central methanol plant for planned maintenance. Similarly,
Statistical Office (CSO). However, preliminary fertiliser production contracted by 5.0 per cent, due
indicators monitored by the Central Bank suggest that in part to the closure of the Yara facility along with
economic activity in 2020 was significantly reduced two of four ammonia plants at Nutrien during the
when compared to the previous year. The Central year.
Bank’s Quarterly Index of Real Economic Activity
(QIEA)5 showed that economic activity declined by Available indicators monitored by the Central
7.9 per cent in 2020 (Table 2). Economic activity in Bank suggest that economic activity in the non-
the energy sector was lower by 13.8 per cent while energy sector was impacted by public health
activity in the non-energy sector was down 4.2 per restrictions implemented to slow the spread of
cent. the COVID-19 virus. The Central Bank’s QIEA
estimates that economic activity in the construction
The energy sector saw widespread contractions in sector declined by 2.9 per cent in 2020 as several
2020. Weaker global demand for energy products construction projects were temporarily halted
and an associated reduction in local production due to COVID-19 stay-at-home measures. Border
rates, coupled with continued maintenance activity, restrictions, implemented for most of 2020,
resulted in lower domestic output of energy-related affected activity within the transportation sub-
products. Some production facilities were also taken industry, particularly air passenger transport. As a
offline6 due to the weak market conditions which result, preliminary Central Bank estimates reveal
prevailed. Production of natural gas fell by 15.2 that activity within the Transportation and Storage
per cent during the year, with all major producers sector contracted by 30.6 per cent during the year.
recording reduced volumes. Lower natural gas The closure of several petrochemical companies
output, together with a 3.8 per cent decline in resulted in a substantial decline in activity in the
crude oil production to an average of 56,480 barrels Electricity and Gas sector (10.6 per cent), particularly
per day (b/d), resulted in a 12.4 per cent fall in the in the second quarter of 2020. Economic activity
Mining and Quarrying sub-sector of the QIEA. In in the Manufacturing (excluding Refining and
the midstream, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and Petrochemicals) sector is estimated to have declined
natural gas liquids (NGLs) production declined 17.6 only marginally (0.8 per cent), partly because it was
per cent and 16.0 per cent, respectively. Further supported by activity in the food manufacturing
downstream, the closure of several petrochemical sub-sector (the largest sub-component of non-
plants in 2020, due in part to the COVID-19 energy-related manufacturing) and was considered
pandemic and its effect on commodity markets, an essential service and therefore, not subject to
led to a decline of 14.6 per cent in petrochemical the public health restrictions during the lockdown.
4
In the FY2020/21 Budget Statement, domestic real GDP was projected to contract by 6.8 per cent in 2020 (See https://www.
finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Budget-Statement-2021-1.pdf, page 10). Current estimates from the CSO indicate that
the domestic economy declined by 1.2 per cent in 2019 following marginal growth of 0.1 per cent in 2018.
5
The Bank compiles a Quarterly Index of Real Economic Activity (QIEA) to gauge short-term economic activity. The industry
classification conforms to the International Standard Industrial Classification Revision 4 (ISIC Rev.4). The CSO is the source of GDP
data in Trinidad and Tobago. The QIEA differs from the CSO’s measure of GDP in terms of methodologies and coverage. The QIEA
is based on production indicators, excludes price effects and does not comprehensively cover all sub-industries measured by the
CSO. In 2019, the QIEA was rebased from a 2010 to 2012 base year and the classification system was migrated from the Trinidad and
Tobago System of National Accounts to the International Standard Industrial Classification, Revision 4. Under this classification, the output
of crude oil and natural gas are included in Mining and Quarrying, the production of LNG, NGLs and petrochemicals are included
in Manufacturing, and the retail sale of automotive fuels is included in Wholesale and Retail Trade. For comparison purposes, the
sectoral breakdown of real economic activity into Energy and Non-energy, presented previously is maintained.
6
Plants that were closed during 2020 include; Yara Trinidad Limited, PCS 02 Ammonia Plant, PCS 03 Ammonia Plant, Trinidad and
Tobago Methanol Company Plant I (TTMC I) and the Titan Methanol Plant.
8
Manufacturers continued to operate with (excluding Energy) sector reveal a decline of 7.2 per
considerable spare capacity7, producing at only cent. The Central Statistical Office’s Index of Retail
61.9 per cent of their full output in 2020 (Table 3). Sales (RSI) for 2020 shows significant contractions
Economic activity in the financial industry, another in the sale of textiles and wearing apparel (28.9
essential service, continued to expand during the per cent), motor vehicles and parts (21.2 per cent),
year buoyed by higher demand for financial services. petrol stations (16.4 per cent), construction material
The Financial and Insurance Activities sector grew and hardware (7.5 per cent), and household
5.7 per cent in 2020 alongside growth of 2.7 per appliances, furniture and other furnishings (7.4 per
cent in the Real Estate Activities sector. cent), which outweigh robust sales of dry goods (6.1
per cent) and supermarket and grocery items (6.4
On the other hand, preliminary QIEA estimates of per cent).
economic activity in the Wholesale and Retail Trade
TABLE 2
QUARTERLY INDEX OF REAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY (2012=100)
/PER CENT CHANGE/
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020P

Total QIEA -8.6 -2.8 -1.1 -1.5 -7.9
Energy -10.4 0.6 -1.2 -3.6 -13.8
Non-Energy -7.5 -4.9 -1.1 -0.1 -4.2
Construction -19.8 -5.5 -2.7 0.6 -2.9
Wholesale and Retail Trade (Exc. Energy) -8.2 -10.2 -0.1 1.4 -7.2
Manufacturing (Exc. Refining and Petrochemical) -15.6 -1.7 -2.5 -0.2 -0.8
Financial and Insurance Activities 2.3 -0.5 -0.7 3.6 5.7
Source: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago

p Provisional
TABLE 3
MANUFACTURING SECTOR CAPACITY UTILISATION RATE
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Manufacturing 68.1 68.2 64.6 64.4 61.9
Food, Beverages and Tobacco Products 74.0 73.5 69.3 69.8 69.0
Textiles, Clothing, Leather, Wood, Paper and Printing 64.9 62.5 59.8 59.5 55.0
Chemical Products 59.5 63.2 58.8 57.3 55.1
Other Manufactured Products 65.0 66.1 64.8 64.5 58.6
7
Capacity utilisation measures the proportion of potential economic output that is actually realised. In percentage terms, the capacity utilisation
rate provides insight into the overall ‘slack’ in an economy or a firm at a given point in time. For more details on how the Bank measures
capacity utilisation, see “Measuring Capacity Utilisation in the Manufacturing Sector of Trinidad and Tobago” in the Economic Bulletin July
2010, Vol XII No.2, p.77. Available at: https://www.central-bank.org.tt/sites/default/files/page-file-uploads/economic-bulletin-july-2010-article-
iia.pdf.
9
CHAPTER THREE – LABOUR MARKET
UNEMPLOYMENT market disruptions across industries. From

the onset of the first confirmed positive case of
Official unemployment statistics from the COVID-19 on March 12, 2020, the Government
Central Statistical Office (CSO) is available up quickly implemented measures to curb the spread
to the second quarter of 2019 (Tables 4 and 5). of the virus13. Some of these measures included
Supplemental data for 2020 suggest increased the closure of the country’s borders, restrictions
joblessness and labour market slack8 as a result of on travel to Tobago, time restrictions on essential
the pandemic. Businesses adjusted to the economic business activity and the shutdown of non-
fallout of the virus by employing a variety of strategies. essential businesses, ceased in-house dining at bars
Some managed their wage bill through temporary and restaurants, the closure of places of leisure
layoffs, reduced working hours and/or salary cuts. (beaches, waterparks, casinos and cinemas), the
In other cases, headcount was decreased via closure of all institutions of learning, only essential
retrenchments. Data on retrenchment notices9 filed public and private sector employees were required
at the Ministry of Labour showed that 2,744 persons to be in office, and reduced public transportation
were retrenched during 2020, much higher than capacity. The energy, manufacturing, construction,
the 1,528 persons retrenched during the previous transportation and other business services
year. In 2020, most of the retrenchments occurred (hospitality, entertainment, and tourism) sectors
in the finance, insurance, and real estate and other were hardest hit by these public health restrictions.
business services (879 persons), manufacturing (562
persons), and distribution, restaurants and hotels Several support measures were implemented by
(527 persons) industries. Another supplemental the Government to assist businesses and individuals
indicator monitored by the Central Bank, the affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. These
number of job advertisements published in the print included: Salary Relief Grants; Income Support
media10 (an indicator of labour demand), declined Grants; Food Card support; Fuel Support Grant
by 41.0 per cent during 2020. Labour market slack (for maxi-taxi owners); and expedited payment
was also evident by fewer man-hours worked11 of individual income tax refunds (of $20,000 or
during the first three quarters of 2020. The Index less), corporate tax refunds, and VAT refunds;
of Hours Worked, inclusive of both the energy and among others. The Government also implemented
non-energy sectors, declined by 2.5 per cent year- “COVID-19 pandemic leave”, formally known as
on-year over the period12. Authorized Absence from Duty with Full Pay, which
is applicable to select categories of employees in the
Containment measures implemented to slow the Public Service14.
spread of the virus created unparalleled labour
8
The amount of ‘slack’ in the economy is a measure of the quantity of unemployed resources. It represents the quantity
of labour and capital that could be employed productively, but instead, remains idle.
9
Retrenchment refers to the termination of employment of a worker at the initiative of an employer for the reason of redundancy
according to the Retrenchment and Severance Benefits Act (No. 32 of 1985). The Act states that, “where an employer proposes to
terminate the services of five or more workers for the reason of redundancy, he shall give formal notice of termination in writing to
each involved worker, to the recognised majority union and the Minister of Labour”. If fewer than five employees are terminated,
employers are not obligated to report to the Ministry. This indicator for job separation is therefore limited insofar as it only includes
registered retrenchment notices, and does not capture other forms of job separation, especially the non-renewal of contracts of
temporary or short-term workers. Furthermore, reports of job losses at establishments cannot be equated with an equal rise in the
unemployment rate. Data on the labour market are not collected from firms and other establishments, but households via the
Continuous Sample Survey of Population (CSSP). Moreover, persons who have been retrenched or who have lost their jobs
otherwise (expired contract, retired, etc.) and have not sought re-employment during the reference period are not classified as
unemployed.
10
This indicator is constructed by the Central Bank using the number of employment vacancies (both in the main pages and the
classifieds) advertised in the Daily Express, Newsday and Guardian newspapers.
11
‘Man-hours worked’ refers to changes in the Index of Hours Worked produced by the Central Statistical Office and is based
on data for the manufacturing, energy, electricity and water sectors.
12
The Index of Man Hours Worked predominantly covers the manufacturing sector (including energy, electricity, and water sectors)
and may not capture hours worked via Work from Home arrangements instituted by several employers.
13
See the July 2020 and January 2021 editions of the Economic Bulletin for the timeline of the progressive ‘Stay-at-Home’ public
health orders that were implemented. Available at: https://www.central-bank.org.tt/sites/default/files/reports/economic-bulletin-
july-2020_0.pdf (see pp. 16) and https://www.central-bank.org.tt/sites/default/files/latest-news/economic-bulletin-january-2021.pdf
(see pp. 25).
14
For further details on the “pandemic leave” see National Policy Guidelines on Preparing Workplaces in Trinidad and Tobago for
COVID-19 (July 2020), pp.17. Available at: http://www.news.gov.tt/sites/default/files/NATIONAL%20POLICY%20GUIDELINES%20
ON%20PREPARING%20WORKPLACES%20IN%20TRINIDAD%20AND%20TOBAGO%20FOR%20COVID.pdf.
10
TABLE 4
LABOUR STATISTICS, 2015 – JUNE 2019
/THOUSANDS/1
2015 2016 2017 2018 Jan to Jun Jan to Jun

2018 2019
Non-Institutional
Population 1,065.1 1,068.5 1,071.2 1,072.4 1,071.6 1,074.9
- 15 years and over
Labour Force 645.3 638.3 633.7 633.9 629.3 617.5
Persons with Jobs 623.3 613.1 603.1 609.1 605.2 591.6
Persons without Jobs 22.0 25.3 30.6 24.9 24.1 25.9
Participation Rate (%) 60.6 59.7 59.2 58.7 58.7 57.5
Male 71.2 69.5 68.9 68.2 68.1 66.4
Female 50.0 50.1 49.5 49.3 49.4 48.6
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.4 4.0 4.8 3.9 3.8 4.2
Male 2.9 3.9 4.2 3.2 3.3 3.8
Female 4.2 4.0 5.6 4.9 4.5 4.8
Source: Central Statistical Office
1
Numbers may not sum due to rounding
TABLE 5
THE SECTORAL DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT1
2016 2017 2018 Jan to Jun 2018 Jan to Jun 2019
(000 s) % (000 s) % (000 s) % (000 s) % (000 s) %
Agriculture 19.8 3.2 22.3 23.1 19.8 3.8 23.4 3.9 20.7 3.5
Petroleum and Gas 18.4 3.0 14.5 13.7 18.4 2.2 14.4 2.4 8.9 1.5
Manufacturing (including
Mining and Quarrying) 48.3 7.9 48.9 48.2 48.3 7.9 47.4 7.8 45.5 7.7
Construction (including
Electricity and Water) 100.7 16.4 88.6 88.7 100.7 14.6 89.3 14.7 85.0 14.4
Transport, Storage and

Communications 44.5 7.3 42.6 38.6 44.5 6.3 38.5 6.4 39.4 6.7
Other Services 381.5 62.2 386.1 396.7 381.5 65.1 392.3 64.8 392.2 66.3
Of which:
Wholesale and Retail 112.2 18.3 119.0 121.7 112.2 20.0 119.6 19.8 111.7 18.9
Community, Social and

Personal Services 209.5 34.2 206.8 207.2 209.5 34.0 208.6 34.5 209.0 35.3
Finance, Insurance
and Real Estate 58.2 9.5 58.3 64.1 58.2 10.5 60.6 10.0 67.9 11.5
Not Classified 1.6 0.3 2.0 3.7 1.6 0.6 3.6 0.6 3.6 0.6
Total Employment 613.2 100.0 603.1 609.0 613.2 100.0 605.1 100.0 591.6 100.0

1
Numbers may not sum due to rounding.
11
LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY15 remained the same, at the previous year’s level, in

the natural gas refining sector (Appendix Table A.9).
During 2020, labour productivity in the non-
energy sector improved by 8.5 per cent, reflecting
higher production levels alongside fewer man- SECTORAL WAGES
hours worked (Appendix Table A.11). Domestic
production in the non-energy sector increased by Wage growth moderated in 2020. Collective
7.5 per cent in 2020, while the Index of Hours agreements registered with the Industrial Court
Worked fell by 2.3 per cent (Appendix Tables showed that the median wage increase measured
A.8 and A.9). The largest increases in domestic 2.8 per cent in 2020, down from 3.0 per cent
production occurred in the food processing (28.0 recorded in each of the previous three years (2017-
per cent) and assembly-type and related products 2019) (Table 6). Wage increases for 2020 ranged
(23.9 per cent) industries. These increases were between 1.0 and 6.0 per cent compared with a
tempered by lower production in the drink and range of 0.0 to 5.0 per cent in 2019. The wholesale
tobacco (19.8 per cent), printing and publishing and retail trade sector received the highest average
(11.1 per cent), and electricity generation (4.0 per wage increase of 3.5 per cent, while wages within
cent) industries. the manufacturing sector registered the smallest
average increase of 1.5 per cent.
Conversely, productivity in the energy sector
declined, driven mainly by a drop in domestic The Index of Average Weekly Earnings (AWE)16
production in both the upstream and downstream showed that there was a modest increase in
industries. During 2020, the Index of Domestic nominal wages. In the non-energy sector, the
Production fell by 11.1 per cent, 16.2 per cent, AWE Index increased by 3.5 per cent during 2020.
and 8.5 per cent in the petrochemicals, natural However, when the energy sector is included, the
gas refining, and exploration and production of oil AWE Index increased by 3.0 per cent during the
and natural gas industries, respectively (Appendix year. Average energy sector wages were significantly
Table A.9). Meanwhile, man-hours worked in the affected by a 9.2 per cent decline in wages in the
petrochemicals and exploration and production of exploration and production of oil and natural gas
oil and natural gas industries fell by 4.9 per cent sector (Appendix Table A.10).
and 4.7 per cent, respectively. Man-hours worked
TABLE 6
WAGE INCREASES FOR 2020
No. of Range of Average Median Wage
Sector Agreements Duration of Yearly Wage Increase for
Analysed Agreements Increases Increase Agreements
for 2020 for 2020 Analysed
Financial and Insurance Activities 3 2017-2022 1.0-3.0 2.8
Wholesale and Retail Trade 4 2018-2022 2.0-6.0 3.5
Transportation and Storage 1 2018-2020 2.0-2.0 2.0

2.8
Information and Communication 1 2018-2020 2.0-3.0 2.0
Manufacturing 1 2017-2020 1.5-2.0 1.5
Other Services 2 2017-2020 2.0-3.0 2.5

1
Numbers may not sum due to rounding
15
Labour productivity is measured by the Central Statistical Office and is based on data for the manufacturing, energy, electricity and water
industries. The Index of Productivity is calculated as the ratio of the Index of Domestic Production to the Index of Hours Worked.
16
The Index of Average Weekly Earnings, computed by the Central Statistical Office, is based on surveyed companies’ employment and wage
bill. The average of weekly earnings is calculated as the earnings (total amount paid to employees) divided by the number of employees.
12
CHAPTER FOUR – PRICES
INFLATION Food inflation averaged 2.8 per cent in 2020

compared to 0.6 per cent in 2019. Food inflation
The slow-down in economic activity due to was predominantly driven by increased international
COVID-19 containment measures helped to food prices17 and supply disruptions brought
keep inflationary pressures low throughout 2020. about by lockdown measures associated with the
Headline inflation slowed to an average of 0.6 per COVID-19 pandemic. Accelerated prices were
cent in 2020, down from 1.0 per cent in 2019 (Table noted in several sub-indices. Notable among these
7). Core inflation was relatively muted, while food were the Meat, Fish, Vegetables, and Oils and Fats
inflation accelerated through the year. sub-indices. Meat price increases averaged 3.5 per
cent in 2020, compared to 0.8 per cent the previous
Core inflation averaged 0.1 per cent in 2020, year, as poultry prices were affected by increased
compared to 1.1 per cent in 2019. Subdued local demand in light of a decline in imports brought
core inflation reflected reduced consumption as about by the pandemic. Fish price increases averaged
economic activity contracted. Slow-downs were 6.0 per cent in 2020 compared to 0.3 per cent in
recorded in several sub-indices, notably the Health; 2019. Growth in fish prices was notable in the post-
Transport; and Recreation and Culture sub-indices. Lenten season, supported by increased cost of fuel18
The Health sub-index slowed to 2.7 per cent in and adverse weather conditions which negatively
2020, compared to 5.5 per cent in 2019, driven by affected supply. Vegetable prices accelerated 4.3
slowdowns in the prices of prescription medication, per cent in 2020 (compared to 1.1 per cent in
contraceptives and spectacles. Transport prices 2019), as unfavourable weather conditions caused
declined (-1.0 per cent) in 2020, following an disruptions in supply. Aided by higher international
increase of 1.4 per cent in 2019. The decline in prices for vegetable oils, the Oils and Fats sub-index
prices came on account of a decline in the price of grew 2.4 per cent in 2020 (compared to 0.2 per
new motor vehicles and the stability of fuel prices cent in 2019).
following price increases one year prior. Meanwhile,
a decline in the price of sound equipment and
carnival costumes aided a 0.5 per cent price decline
in the Recreation sub-index. Elsewhere, faster price
increases were noted in the Furnishing, Household
Equipment and Routine Maintenance sub-index
(0.7 per cent) as carpet and ready-made household
textile prices accelerated.
17
Data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) food price index showed that international dairy and edible oil prices
peaked in December 2020.
18
With the closure of the PETROTRIN Refinery in 2018, fishermen had to switch to super gasoline to fuel their boats, which is more expensive
than the regular gasoline that was previously used.
13
TABLE 7
ANNUAL AVERAGE MOVEMENT OF SELECTED CATEGORIES OF THE DOMESTIC RETAIL PRICE INDEX
/PER CENT CHANGE/
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Headline Inflation 3.1 1.9 1.0 1.0 0.6
Food Inflation 7.5 2.9 1.1 0.6 2.8
Fish 4.6 3.2 2.6 0.3 6.0
Food Products NEC 14.9 5.4 -2.3 4.4 4.2
Meat 7.4 1.2 -0.8 0.8 3.5
Milk, Cheese and Eggs -1.2 4.6 5.0 0.0 2.0
Vegetables 10.8 3.2 0.8 1.1 4.3
Bread and Cereals 6.5 1.4 0.7 -0.5 1.1
Sugar, Jam, Confectionery, etc. 3.0 5.5 1.3 -1.6 1.2
Non-Alcoholic Beverages 12.7 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.6
Oils and Fats 7.7 5.0 3.6 0.2 2.4
Fruits 7.5 6.5 3.5 -1.8 1.3
Core Inflation 2.1 1.6 1.0 1.1 0.1
Communication 6.6 2.1 -1.3 0.3 -0.1
Education 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Miscellaneous Goods and Other Services 2.4 1.7 0.6 2.7 1.0
Hotels, Cafes and Restaurants 4.6 3.6 2.6 2.0 1.8
Health 6.5 14.5 1.6 5.5 2.7
Transport 3.1 1.2 1.9 1.4 -1.0
Recreation and Culture 2.9 0.7 0.8 0.3 -0.5
Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco 1.6 5.2 -0.1 1.9 2.4
Clothing and Footwear 3.7 0.1 -4.5 -2.6 -3.8
Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels -0.3 0.0 2.4 1.0 0.5
Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine 1.5 1.8 -0.5 -0.1 0.7
Maintenance
Sources: Central Statistical Office and Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago
PRODUCERS’ PRICES BUILDING MATERIAL PRICES
The Producer Prices Index (PPI) grew by an Building material prices accelerated in 2020. The
average of 1.8 per cent in 2020, compared to Index of Retail Prices of Building Materials increased
0.6 per cent in 2019. The uptick in the PPI was by 2.6 per cent in 2020, up from 1.0 per cent in
mainly driven by price increases in the Drink and 2019. Notable increases were recorded in the Walls
Tobacco sub-index, which measured 5.9 per cent, and Roof (5.1 per cent), Plumbing and Plumbing
and was due to a 20.2 per cent increase in the price Fixtures (3.5 per cent), Finishing, Joinery Units and
of alcoholic beverages given higher import prices. Painting and External Works (2.5 per cent), and
Marginal price increases were noted in the Food Electrical Installation and Fixtures (1.3 per cent)
Processing and the Assembly-Type and Related sub-indices. The remaining sub-indices recorded
Industries sub-indices. The Textiles, Garments and price declines; the Site Preparation, Structure and
Footwear sub-index remained unchanged, while all Concrete Frame sub-index fell by 0.7 per cent while
other sub-indices recorded marginal price declines. the Windows, Doors and Balustrading sub-index
decreased by 1.2 per cent.
14
CHAPTER FIVE – FISCAL OPERATIONS
FISCAL OPERATIONS Salary Relief Grant in response to the COVID-19

pandemic were responsible for the increase in
The Central Government fiscal accounts transfers and subsidies. According to the 2021
registered an overall deficit in fiscal year (FY) Budget Statement, 81,179 Salary Relief and Income
2019/20 (October 2019 – September 2020). Support Grants were paid to 33,813 individuals who
According to data provided by the Ministry of had lost their jobs or had their incomes reduced due
Finance, the fiscal accounts recorded a deficit of to the COVID-19 restrictions23. The Salary Relief
$16.8 billion (11.2 per cent of GDP) in FY2019/20 Grants, of up to $1,500 per month for three months
compared with a deficit of $4.0 billion (2.6 per cent in the first instance, were to mitigate the financial
of GDP) in the corresponding period one year earlier challenges experienced by persons who had either
(Tables 8 and 9). The higher deficit was primarily been retrenched, terminated or experienced
due to lower revenues and higher expenditure due reduced income as a result of COVID-1924.
to the COVID-19 pandemic and was financed from Meanwhile, capital expenditure reached $4.1 billion
a combination of external and domestic borrowings, for the period ending September 2020 compared to
as well as a withdrawal from the Heritage and $3.8 billion for the period ending September 2019.
Stabilisation Fund (HSF)19. The non-energy fiscal
deficit also expanded over the period reaching Budget estimates for FY2020/21 show a smaller
$24.6 billion (16.4 per cent of GDP)20 at the end of deficit of $8.2 billion or 5.6 per cent of GDP. This
FY2019/20 from $19.9 billion one year earlier. compares with a deficit of $16.8 billion or 11.2
per cent of GDP for FY2019/2025.Total revenue is
Central Government total revenue collections expected to amount to $41.4 billion, with $13.4
declined by 27.1 per cent to roughly $34.1 billion to be collected from the energy sector
billion over the 12 months to September 2020. and $27.1 billion from the non-energy sector.
The reduction in earnings was reflective of a Meanwhile, capital revenue is estimated at $905.1
simultaneous fall-off in both energy and non-energy million. Aggregate expenditure is projected to reach
receipts. Energy revenue fell by 50.5 per cent to $49.6 billion at the end of FY2020/21, reflecting
$7.9 billion owing to lower energy commodity lower spending when compared to FY2019/20 due
prices21 and production22. Meanwhile, non-energy to the COVID-19 pandemic.
receipts decreased to $25.5 billion from $29.9
billion as collections from taxes on income and
profits, and international trade declined. Capital
revenue was also reduced by $266.4 million to
reach $713.4 million over the period due to lower
proceeds from the sale of assets when compared to
the similar period one year ago.
Aggregate expenditure edged up marginally

reaching $50.8 billion at the end of FY2019/20.
Greater spending on transfers and subsidies and
the capital programme precipitated the increase
in overall expenditure. Notably, larger outlays on
the Senior Citizens Grant, Disability Grant, Social
Assistance, Food Price Support Programme and
19
The Central Government amended the HSF Act to allow for withdrawals of funds not exceeding US$1.5 billion or TT$10.0 billion
at any time during the fiscal year where: a disaster area is declared under the Disaster Measures Act; a dangerous infectious disease
is declared under the Public Health Ordinance; or there is, or is likely to be, a precipitous decline in budgeted revenues which
are are based on the production or price of crude oil or natural gas.
20
For energy-based economies, the non-energy fiscal deficit-to GDP ratio is a relatively more reliable indicator of the policy stance of
the government than other measures such as the overall primary balance-to-GDP ratio which can be a potentially misleading
indicator of the fiscal stance.
21
See Chapter Ten: International Commodity markets.
22
See Chapter Two: Domestic Economic Activity.
23
See https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Budget-Statement-2021-1.pdf, pp.7.
24
To be eligible for the Salary Relief Grant, persons must have no other source of income and the loss of employment or income must
have occurred no earlier than March 19, 2020 (Ministry of Finance, April 6, 2020).
25
The FY2020/21 Budget was presented in Parliament on October 5, 2020 by the Minister of Finance. The Budget is predicated on
an estimated oil price of US$45.00 a barrel and a gas price of US$3.00 per mmbtu.
15
TABLE 8
SUMMARY OF CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FINANCES, 2016/17 - 2020/21
/TT$ MILLIONS/
2016/17 2017/18 2018/19r 2019/20re 2020/21b

Current Revenue 34,870.1 42,331.9 45,768.8 33,346.3 40,459.0
Current Expenditure 46,263.5 45,374.4 46,986.8 46,754.2 45,463.3
Current Surplus (+)/ Deficit (-) -11,393.4 -3,042.5 -1,218.0 -13,407.9 -5,004.3
Capital Receipts 1,310.5 837.8 979.8 713.4 905.1
Capital Expenditure and Net Lending 3,448.5 3,492.1 3,790.7 4,077.5 4,110.0
Overall Surplus (+)/ Deficit (-) -13,531.4 -5,696.8 -4,028.9 -16,772.0 -8,209.2
Financing 13,531.4 5,696.8 4,028.9 16,772.0 8,209.2
External (Net) 3,266.7 1,239.4 1,094.0 10,834.3 -11.6
Domestic (Net) 10,264.7 4,457.4 2,934.9 5,937.7 8,220.8
(Per Cent of GDP)
Current Surplus (+)/ Deficit (-) -7.5 -1.9 -0.8 -8.9 -3.4
Overall Surplus (+)/ Deficit (-) -9.0 -3.6 -2.6 -11.2 -5.6
Source: Ministry of Finance
r Revised.
b Budgeted.
16
TABLE 9
SUMMARY OF CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FISCAL OPERATIONS, 2016/17 - 2020/21
/TT$ MILLIONS/
2016/17 2017/18 2018/19r 2019/20re 2020/21b

Revenue 36,180.6 43,169.7 46,748.6 34,059.7 41,364.1
Current 34,870.1 42,331.9 45,768.8 33,346.3 40,459.0
Energy* 7,759.5 11,031.3 15,874.3 7,852.5 13,393.6
Non-Energy* 27,110.6 31,300.6 29,894.5 25,493.8 27,065.4
Capital 1,310.5 837.8 979.8 713.4 905.1
Expenditure 49,712.0 48,866.5 50,777.5 50,831.7 49,573.3
Current 46,263.5 45,374.4 46,986.8 46,754.2 45,463.3
Wages and Salaries 9,937.8 9,094.4 9,137.2 8,983.8 8,881.5
Goods and Services 5,827.2 6,102.1 6,426.4 5,459.6 5,497.1
Interest Payments 4,468.4 4,786.8 5,045.5 4,988.9 4,615.1
Transfers and Subsidies1 26,030.1 25,391.1 26,377.7 27,321.9 26,469.6
Capital Expenditure and Net
Lending 3,448.5 3,492.1 3,790.7 4,077.5 4,110.0
Overall Non-Energy Balance -21,290.9 -16,728.1 -19,903.2 -24,624.5 -21,602.8
Overall Balance -13,531.4 -5,696.8 -4,028.9 -16,772.0 -8,209.2
Total Financing (Net) 13,531.4 5,696.8 4,028.9 16,772.0 8,209.2
Net Foreign Financing 3,266.7 1,239.4 1,094.0 10,834.3 -11.6
Net Domestic Financing 10,264.7 4,457.4 2,934.9 5,937.7 8,220.8
Of Which: Transfers to Heritage and Stabilisation
Fund -1,712.2 0.0 0.0 -6,635.0 0.0
(Per Cent of GDP)
Revenue 23.9 27.3 31.2 22.7 27.6

Current 23.1 26.8 29.0 22.2 27.0
Energy 5.1 7.0 10.1 5.2 8.9
Non-Energy 17.9 19.8 19.0 17.0 18.0
Capital 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6
Expenditure 32.9 30.9 32.2 33.9 33.0
Current 30.6 28.7 29.8 31.2 30.3
Wages and Salaries 6.6 5.7 5.8 6.0 5.9
Goods and Services 3.9 3.9 4.1 3.6 3.7
Interest Payments 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.1
Transfers and Subsidies 17.2 16.1 16.7 18.2 17.6
Capital Expenditure and Net Lending 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.7
Overall Non-Energy Balance2 -14.1 -10.6 -12.6 -16.4 -14.4
Overall Balance -9.0 -3.6 -2.6 -11.2 -5.6
Total Financing (Net) 9.0 3.6 2.6 11.2 5.6
Net Foreign Financing 2.2 0.8 0.7 7.2 0.0
Net Domestic Financing 6.8 2.8 1.9 4.0 5.6

Of which: Transfers to Heritage and Stabilisation Fund -1.1 0.0 0.0 -4.4 0.0
Memo:
Primary Fiscal Balance (TT$Mn) -9,063.0 -910.0 1,016.6 -11,783.1 -3,594.1
Cyclically Adjusted Balance (TT$Mn)3 -11,544.6 -3,964.4 -2,191.6 -13,907.4 n.a.
Structural Fiscal Balance (TT$Mn)4 -109.1 126.3 -614.4 n.a. n.a.
Sources: Ministry of Finance and Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago

1 Adjusted for transfers to the Infrastructure Development Fund, Government Assisted Tertiary Education Fund and CARICOM Petroleum Fund.
2 Computed as the sum of non-energy revenue and capital revenue less total expenditure.
3 The cyclically adjusted balance provides an estimate of the fiscal position net of cyclical effects by adjusting revenue and expenditure for
business cycle effects.
4 The structurally fiscal balance is an estimate of the fiscal position after excluding the effects of the business cycle and fluctuations in commodity
prices, as well as one-off factors that temporarily affect revenue and expenditure.
* Energy and non-energy revenues for FY2020/21 have been estimated by the Central Bank.
r Revised.
p Revised estimates.
b Budgeted.
n.a. Not available. 17
TABLE 10
ENERGY-BASED GOVERNMENT REVENUES, 2015/16 - 2019/20
/PER CENT OF GOVERNMENT REVENUE/
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19r 2019/20re

Energy Sector 14.8 21.4 25.6 34.0 23.1
Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT) 2.0 1.7 2.5 5.3 3.8
Supplemental Petroleum Tax (SPT) 0.3 1.4 2.3 2.7 1.2
Corporation tax 6.3 9.6 11.0 9.2 5.5
Royalties 1.2 2.6 5.3 8.8 8.3
Unemployment Levy 0.3 0.3 0.4 1.5 0.6
Withholding Tax 1.7 1.4 1.1 2.0 2.2
Exercise Duty 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Oil Impost1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2
Signature Bonus 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Production Sharing Contracts 2.2 3.6 2.3 0.0 0.0
Extraordinary Revenue from
Oil and Gas Companies 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.3
Surplus Income - Sale of Pet. Products
0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.9
(Per Cent of GDP)
Energy Sector 4.4 5.1 7.0 10.1 5.2

Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT) 0.6 0.4 0.7 1.6 0.9
Supplemental Petroleum Tax (SPT) 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.3
Corporation tax 1.9 2.3 3.0 2.7 1.2
Royalties 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.6 1.9
Withholding Tax 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5
Exercise Duty 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oil Impost1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Signature Bonus 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Production Sharing Contracts 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.0 0.0
Extraordinary Revenue from
Oil and Gas Companies 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.1
Surplus Income - Sale of Pet. Products 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2

1 Oil Impost refers to a tax on petroleum producing companies to cover the administration expenses of the Ministry of Energy and Energy
Industries.
r Revised.
18
TABLE 11
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT RECURRENT EXPENDITURE1:
A FUNCTIONAL CLASSIFICATION, 2016/17 - 2020/21
/TT$ MILLIONS/
2016/17 2017/18 2018/19r 2019/20re 2020/21b
Economic Services 3,329.1 2,961.9 2,981.2 3,359.1 3,476.2

Energy 466.6 85.4 320.4 602.1 642.0
Agriculture, Land and Marine Resources
727.5 726.1 648.7 568.6 646.1
Works and Transport 2,135.0 2,150.4 2,012.1 2,188.4 2,188.1
Social Services 20,186.5 19,961.1 19,792.0 19,522.7 18,103.5

Education 5,008.3 5,297.4 5,211.1 5,069.6 4,769.0
Health 5,053.4 4,727.6 4,617.2 4,655.8 4,871.0
Housing 1,307.5 1,410.2 1,346.0 702.4 748.5
Small Enterprise Development 356.3 332.9 370.3 442.6 417.9
Public Utilities 2,832.0 2,932.1 2,592.4 2,611.5 1,887.9
Social Services2 5,629.0 5,260.9 5,655.0 6,040.8 5,409.2
Public Services 6,182.0 5,128.3 5,263.8 4,998.8 4,736.3

National Security 6,182.0 5,128.3 5,263.8 4,998.8 4,736.3
Other3 23,238.7 24,508.3 24,934.7 27,564.6 28,250.7
Total Recurrent Expenditure4 52,936.3 52,559.6 52,971.7 55,445.2 54,566.7

1 Classified according to recurrent expenditure allocated to the respective ministry head.
2 Includes Ministry of Sport and Community Development, Ministry of Tourism, Culture and the Arts, Ministry of Social Development and
Family Services and Ministry of Youth Development and National Services.
3 Includes Office of the President, Auditor General, Judiciary, Industrial Court, Parliament, Service Commissions, Statutory Authorities,
Elections & Boundaries Commission, Tax Appeal Board, Registration, Recognition and Certification Board, Public Service Appeal Board,
Office of the Prime Minister, Tobago House of Assembly, Central Administrative Services, Tobago and all other Ministries. Other excludes
Charges on Account of the Public Debt.
4 Represents Recurrent Expenditure from the Consolidated Fund only.
r Revised.
b Budgeted.
PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT The domestic financial market continued to

play an important role in financing the Central
Gross public sector debt outstanding as at the Government fiscal deficit during FY2019/20.
end of September 2020 amounted to $133.4 Central Government domestic debt, excluding
billion, compared to $121.0 billion recorded at sterilised securities, increased to $56.5 billion in
end-September 2019 (Table 12). Net public sector September 2020 from $47.0 billion in September
debt, which excludes debt issued for sterilisation 2019. Under the Development Loans Act, Central
purposes, increased by 17.5 per cent to $121.3 Government borrowed $8.8 billion for budgetary
billion (80.9 per cent of GDP). During 2020, the support and refinancing, a $2.5 billion increase
public sector depended heavily on domestic and over FY2018/1926. In addition, a total of $3.0 billion
external sources of funds for budgetary support and in Value Added Tax bonds were issued in 2020
refinancing. under the Miscellaneous Provisions (Heritage and
26
Debt outstanding under the Development Loans Act amounted to $45.5 billion as at September 2020. The Act currently sets a
borrowing limit of $55.0 billion (Table 13B).
19
Stabilisation Fund, Government Savings Bonds and Over the 12 months to September 2020,
Value Added Tax) Act27, while an additional $2.8 contingent liabilities increased by $3.3 billion
billion in debt management bills were raised under to $33.2 billion (22.1 per cent of GDP). New
the Treasury Bills Act (Table 12). Regarding principal borrowings for FY2019/20 by Statutory Bodies
repayments, roughly $4.1 billion was allocated for and State-owned Enterprises included debt issued
bonds and loans raised under the Development by the National Insurance Property Development
Loans Act, while $470.4 million and $18.6 million Company (NIPDEC), the Water and Sewerage
were allocated for the repayment of CLICO and Authority and the Urban Development Corporation
HCU zero coupon bonds respectively. of Trinidad and Tobago (UDECOTT) amounting
to $1.2 billion, $1.0 billion and $691.8 million,
Central Government external debt amounted to respectively, to finance various projects and to
US$4,707.3 million (21.1 per cent of GDP) at settle operational expenses. In addition, several
the end of September 2020 (See Appendix 17A companies, namely the Petroleum Company of
and Table 12). Borrowing from external creditors Trinidad and Tobago (PETROTRIN)28, the Housing
amounted to US$1,269.1 million over the reporting Development Corporation (HDC) and the Export-
period. Of this total, US$500.0 million was issued Import Bank of Trinidad and Tobago (EXIMTT)
on the external capital markets, and part of the refinanced existing debt, amounting to $1,183.5
proceeds (US$250.0 million) was used to repay an million, $650.0 million and $135.2 million,
existing bond that matured in June 2020. In addition, respectively, during FY2019/20 (Table 13A).
US$400.0 million was received from the Corporación
Andina de Fomento (CAF), with US$100.0 million
specifically earmarked for COVID-19 support.
Similarly, of the US$127.6 million disbursed by
the Inter-American Development Bank, US$100.0
million was allocated for COVID relief efforts.
External debt service payments amounted to
US$673.4 million, of which US$505.6 million was
geared towards principal repayments.
27
The Miscellaneous Provisions (Heritage and Stabilisation Fund, Government Savings Bonds and Value Added Tax) Act allows for the issuance
of bonds not exceeding $6.0 billion for the purposes of meeting any liability to refund any tax. Businesses are allowed to cash in the bonds
at commercial banks for the exact amount or hold the bonds for 3 years at a yield of 3.3 per cent, with dividends to be paid semi-annually.
28
The Petroleum Company of Trinidad and Tobago (PETROTRIN) was shut down in November 2018 and a new company was created, Trinidad
Petroleum Holdings Limited. Trinidad Petroleum has four subsidiaries, one of which holds the legacy assets and debts of PETROTRIN.
20
TABLE 12
TOTAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING, SEPTEMBER 2016 - SEPTEMBER 2020
/TT$ MILLIONS/
Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19r Sep-20p
Total Gross Public Debt 129,314.2 129,923.4 118,911.7 121,021.1 133,385.6
Total Net Public Debt1 97,913.2 102,311.9 95,544.0 103,218.3 121,315.3
Central Government Domestic 67,086.7 68,448.9 65,695.5 64,779.2 68,560.5

General Development Bonds 16,694.8 21,293.3 23,313.8 27,059.2 31,295.2
CLICO and HCU Bonds 17,987.7 17,463.3 16,961.7 16,455.1 15,963.7
VAT Bonds2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,000.0
BOLTS and Leases 186.3 159.3 130.6 105.4 78.6
Debt Management Bills 800.0 1,905.0 1,905.0 3,340.0 6,136.0
Open Market Operations
Treasury Bills 19,788.9 18,599.2 18,273.4 14,061.5 8,479.0
Treasury Notes 9,052.8 6,453.0 2,785.0 1,432.0 2,132.0
Treasury Bonds 2,559.3 2,559.3 2,309.3 2,309.3 1,459.3
Liquidity Absorption Bonds 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other Debt Liabilities3 16.9 16.5 16.7 16.7 16.7
Central Government External 21,362.3 23,522.7 24,710.1 26,343.8 31,598.6
Contingent Liabilities 40,865.2 37,951.8 28,506.1 29,898.1 33,226.5

State Owned Enterprises 29,476.9 27,202.4 18,395.8 20,418.8 22,745.7
Statutory Authorities 11,388.3 10,749.4 10,110.3 9,479.3 10,480.8
(Per Cent of GDP)4
Total Gross Public Debt 85.2 86.0 75.2 76.8 88.9

Total Net Public Debt1 64.5 67.7 60.4 65.5 80.9
Central Government Domestic Debt1 23.5 27.0 26.8 29.8 37.7
Central Government External Debt 14.1 15.6 15.6 16.7 21.1
Contingent Liabilities 26.9 25.1 18.0 19.0 22.1

1 Excludes debt issued for sterilisation purposes (Open Market Operations).
2 Refers to bonds issued by the Government under the Value Added Tax Act for the settlement of VAT refunds owed to businesses in
Trinidad and Tobago.
3 Comprises the outstanding balances of public sector emolument bonds, tax-free saving bonds & Central Bank fixed interest rate bonds.
4 Debt ratios prior to FY2019 are based on Nominal GDP sourced from the Central Statistical Office while debt ratios for FY2020 are
based on the Ministry of Finance nominal GDP estimate associated with the FY2021 Budget.
r Revised.
p Provisional.
21
TABLE 13A
PUBLIC SECTOR BORROWINGS UNDERTAKEN IN FY2019/20
/TT$ MILLIONS/
Date Borrower Amount Type of Purpose of Financing Borrowing Act

($Mn) Financing Utilised
01-Oct-19 NIPDEC 500.0 Domestic Financing for P.U.R.E. Guarantee of Loans

(Companies Act)
30-Oct-19 Central Government 500.0 Domestic Budget Support Development Loans Act
05-Nov-19 UDeCOTT 500.0 Domestic Payment of Finanical Obligations Guarantee of Loans

(Companies Act)
05-Nov-19 RDC 100.0 Domestic General Corporate Expenses Guarantee of Loans

(Companies Act)
12-Nov-19 Central Government 105.0 Domestic Budget Support Treasury Bills Act
13-Nov-19 PETROTRIN 677.3 (US$100.0) Domestic Debt Refinancing Guarantee of Loans

(Companies Act)
15-Nov-19 Central Government 394.5 (US$58.4) External Acquisition of Incat Ferry to Service External Loans Act
to Inter-Island Sea Bridge
15-Nov-19 Central Government 386.4 US$57.2 External Acquisition of Austal Ferry to Service External Loans Act
to Inter-Island Sea Bridge
15-Nov-19 EXIMTT 67.6 (US$10.0) External Debt Refinancing Guarantee of Loans

(Companies Act)
15-Nov-19 EXIMTT 67.6 (US$10.0) External Debt Refinancing Guarantee of Loans

(Companies Act)
15-Nov-19 EXIMTT 67.6 (US$10.0) External Trade Support Guarantee of Loans

(Companies Act)
22-Nov-19 PETROTRIN 168.9 (US$25.0) Domestic Debt Refinancing Guarantee of Loans

(Companies Act)
26-Nov-19 Central Government 1600.0 Domestic Budget Support Development Loans Act
02-Dec-19 Central Government 1200.0 Domestic Debt Repayment Development Loans Act
04-Dec-19 Central Government 515.0 Domestic Budget Support Treasury Bills Act
06-Dec-19 Central Government 515.0 Domestic Budget Support Treasury Bills Act
12-Dec-19 NMTS 400.0 Domestic Operating Expenses Guarantee of Loans

(Companies Act)
12-Dec-19 Central Government 400.0 Domestic Debt Repayment Development Loans Act
16-Dec-19 Central Government 712.9 (RMB 688.3) External Phoenix Park Industrial Park Project External Loans Act
of Trinidad and Tobago
17-Dec-19 WASA 33.7 (US$5.0) Domestic Payments to DESALCOTT Guarantee of Loans

(Statutory Authorities Act)
10-Jan-20 NIDCO 110.0 Domestic Payment to Property Owners in Guarantee of Loans

Relation to ANR Robinson Airport (Companies Act)
15-Jan-20 NIDCO 75.0 Domestic Construction of San Fernando Guarantee of Loans

Magistrate Court (Companies Act)
15-Jan-20 WASA 675.9 (US$100.0) Domestic Settlement of Outstanding Guarantee of Loans

Obligations to DESALCOTT (Statutory Authorities Act)
20-Jan-20 NIDCO 300.0 Domestic Payment to Property Owners in Guarantee of Loans

Relation to ANR Robinson Airport (Companies Act)
22
TABLE 13A continued

/TT$ MILLIONS/

18-Feb-20 Central Government 880.0 Domestic Budget Support Treasury Bills Act
06-Mar-20 Central Government 204.0 Domestic Budget Support Treasury Bills Act
16-Mar-20 Central Government 1500.0 Domestic Budget Support Development Loans Act
21-Mar-20 UDeCOTT 83.7 (US$12.4) Domestic Redevelopment of POS General Hospital Guarantee of Loans
(Companies Act)
21-Mar-20 UDeCOTT 70.4 Domestic Redevelopment of POS General Hospital Guarantee of Loans
(Companies Act)
31-Mar-20 Central Government 750.0 Domestic Budget Support Development Loans Act
01-Apr-20 NIPDEC 671.3 Domestic Procurement and Storage of Guarantee of Loans

Pharmaceutical Products (Companies Act)
09-Apr-20 Central Government 618.1 (US$91.5) External Acquisition of Two (2) Cape Class External Loans Act
Patrol Boats
15-Apr-20 Central Government 800.3 (EUR 106.1) External Construction of the External Loans Act
New Sangre Grande Hospital
20-Apr-20 UDeCOTT 37.7 Domestic “Outfitting of International Waterfront Guarantee of Loans

Complex to Accommodate Civil Court” (Companies Act)
24-Apr-20 Central Government 693.2 (US$102.4) Domestic Repayment of External Bond Development Loans Act
(JPY 11 Billion 3,75% Notes)
30-Apr-20 PETROTRIN 168.1 (US$25.0) Domestic Debt Refinancing Guarantee of Loans

(Companies Act)
05-May-20 Central Government 1,338.6 (US$200.0) External Development of Air and Sea CAF Act
Transport and Tourism Infrastructure
11-May-20 Central Government 1700.0 Domestic Debt Refinancing Development Loans Act
15-May-20 Central Government 1000.0 Domestic Settlement of VAT Refunds VAT Act
19-May-20 HDC 650.0 Domestic Debt Repayment Guarantee of Loans

29-May-20 Central Government 100.0 Domestic Budget Financing Treasury Bills Act
03-Jun-20 NMTS 300.0 Domestic Operating Expenses Guarantee of Loans

(Companies Act)
22-Jun-20 Central Government 3,382.3 (US$500.0) External Budget Financing External Loans Act
24-Jun-20 CAL 444.4 (US$65.6) Domestic Fund Working Capital Due to COVID-19 Guarantee of Loans
Pandemic (Companies Act)
25-Jun-20 Central Government 677.5 (US$100.0) External “Financial Support for Economic CAF Act
Impact and Fiscal Pressures Related to
COVID-19”
26-Jun-20 Central Government 268.9 Domestic SME Loan Guarantee Programme Development Loans Act
(COVID-19 Support)
29-Jun-20 Central Government 600.0 Domestic Debt Refinancing Development Loans Act
23
TABLE 13A continued

/TT$ MILLIONS/

03-Jul-20 WASA 125.0 Domestic Meet Liabilities and Commitments Guarantee of Loans
15-Jul-20 Central Government 2000.0 Domestic Settlement of VAT Refunds VAT Act
16-Jul-20 NMTS 200.0 Domestic Obligations to Contractors and Guarantee of Loans

School Repairs (Companies Act)
31-Jul-20 NCC 100.0 Domestic Support to Creative Industry and Guarantee of Loans
Settlement to Trade Creditors (Companies Act)
03-Aug-20 Central Government 674.1 (US$100.0) External “Programme to Strengthen Fiscal IADB Act
Policy and Management in Response
to COVID-19”
03-Aug-20 EMBD 90.0 Domestic Settlement of Judgement Debt Guarantee of Loans

(Companies Act)
03-Aug-20 WASA 192.2 Domestic Operating Expenses Guarantee of Loans

11-Aug-20 PETROTRIN 169.2 (US$25.0) Domestic Debt Refinancing Guarantee of Loans

(Companies Act)
14-Aug-20 EMBD 124.7 Domestic Settlement of Judgement Debt Guarantee of Loans

(Companies Act)
21-Nov-20 NMTS 400.0 Domestic Construction and Outfitting of Guarantee of Loans

Primary Schools (Companies Act)
24-Aug-20 Central Government 338.5 (US$50.0) External COVID-19 Health Support CAF Act
24
TABLE 13B
IMPACT OF FY2019/20 BORROWINGS ON BORROWING LIMITS
Borrowing Act Borrowing Outstanding Outstanding Remaining
Limit (TT$Mn) Debt FY2019 Debt FY2020 Headroom as at
(TT$Mn) (TT$Mn) 30-Sep20
(TT$Mn)
Development Loans Act 55,000.0 41,253.0 45,489.0 9,511.0

External Loans Act 30,000.0 16,874.1 19,133.6 10,866.4
Guarantee of Loans (Companies) Act 45,000.0 20,418.8 22,745.7 22,254.3

Guarantee of Loans (Statutory Authorities) Act No Limit 9,479.3 10,480.8 No Limit
IADB Act No Limit 4,625.3 5,153.6 No Limit
IBRD Act No Limit 0.0 0.0 No Limit
CDB Act No Limit 206.3 173.1 No Limit
CAF Act No Limit 4,638.1 7,138.3 No Limit
Treasury Bills Act 30,000.0 17,401.5 16,115.0 13,885.0
Treasury Notes Act 15,000.0 1,432.0 2,132.0 12,868.0
Treasury Bonds Act No Limit 2,309.3 1,459.3 No Limit
Purchase of Certain Rights and
Validation Act (CLICO) 10,700.0 2,006.5 1,533.8 None*
Purchase of Certain Rights and
Validation Act (HCU) 400.0 254.8 236.2 None*
VAT Act 6,000.0 0.0 3,000.0 3,000.0
* Debt incurred under this Act represents one-off financing made by the Central Government towards CLICO and HCU policyholders.
25
CHAPTER SIX – MONETARY AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS
MONETARY POLICY the fallout from the pandemic. Uncertainty in the

global economy related to COVID-19, and a highly
In 2020, monetary policy was largely focused on accommodative policy response by the US Federal
supporting the economy through the economic Reserve, resulted in decreased yields on US short-
fall-out from the COVID-19 pandemic. As the term instruments. The yield on the US 91-day short-
effects of the pandemic unfolded domestically, term benchmark lost 146 basis points during the year
the MPC responded accordingly. In an emergency to reach 0.09 per cent by the end of December. As
meeting on March 17, 2020, the MPC lowered the a result, the TT-US 91-day differential improved to
Repo rate by 150 basis points to 3.50 per cent and -1 basis points in December 2020 compared with
the primary reserve requirement on commercial -47 basis points in December 2019.
bank deposits by 300 basis points to 14.0 per cent.
These actions led to an increase in the amount of The commercial banks’ weighted average lending
liquidity in the system and facilitated lower interest rate (WALR) reached 7.29 per cent in December
rates. Consistent with the MPC stance, the Bank 2020, 43 basis points lower than in December
allowed maturing open market operations (OMOs) 2019. The decline in the WALR reflected competition
to add to the system liquidity from March to among commercial banks for loan business and
September. the effect of an increase in system liquidity. The
weighted average deposit rate decreased by 7 basis
Commensurate with the actions taken by the points to 0.60 per cent over the same period. As a
Central Bank to buffer the economic impact of result, the banking interest rate spread decreased by
the COVID-19 pandemic, liquidity levels in the 37 basis points over the period December 2019 to
domestic banking system increased significantly December 2020, to reach 6.68 per cent. Similarly,
during 2020. Commercial banks’ holdings of excess the weighted average interest rate on outstanding
reserves rose to a monthly average of $9,335.8 mortgage loans decreased to 5.56 per cent by
million from $4,005.6 million in 2019. Net domestic December 2020, reflecting a 28 basis point decline
fiscal injections (NDFIs), usually considered the since December 2019. The median prime lending
main driver of liquidity, amounted to a net injection rate of commercial banks remained fixed at 7.50 per
of $10,933.9 million in 2020, an increase over cent since March 2020, when it declined from 9.25
the $3,363.3 million in injections over 2019. In per cent in February, after the measures to address
addition, although not a liquidity absorption tool, COVID-19 were implemented.
Central Bank sales of foreign exchange to authorised
dealers indirectly removed $8,641.9 million from Private sector credit granted by the consolidated
the system in 2020. Meanwhile, injections of OMOs system declined by 0.9 per cent in December
fell to $2,535.0 million during 2020, compared to 2020 compared to growth of 4.6 per cent one year
$11,181.4 million in 2019, on account of significant earlier. While real estate lending remained positive
net OMO withdrawals ($5,774.0 million) in January throughout 2020, weak business and consumer
and February. However, since the onset of the lending dragged overall credit growth downwards.
COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, net injections
of $8,309.0 million have been allowed. Overall, the Business lending declined by 5.2 per cent
significantly higher level of excess liquidity brought by December 2020. This compounded the
down activity on the interbank market. Interbank downward trend of decline in consolidated business
activity averaged $13.7 million daily in 2020, lending which has occurred since January 2019.
compared with a daily average of $108.0 million in Disaggregated data showed an increase of 2.0
2019. The repurchase facility was not accessed over per cent year-on-year in lending to the Finance,
2020. Insurance and Real Estate sector by September
2020, due in part to large increases in lending to Life
The TT-US short term interest rate differential and Non-Life Insurance in December 2020. On the
improved over 2020. The TT 91-day OMO other hand, declines in lending to the Distribution
Treasury Bill rate decreased by 100 basis points sector which commenced in March 2020 continued
during 2020, settling at 0.08 per cent as at the end on account of the COVID-19 pandemic (5.0 per
of December 2020, following the elevated level of cent in December 2020).
liquidity provision to the banking system to address
26
Consumer credit declined in December after FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

remaining positive up until September 2020.
Lending to consumers declined by 2.3 per cent The market for foreign exchange remained tight
in December 2020, much lower than the 6.1 per throughout 2020. Declines were recorded in both
cent growth recorded a year prior. Lending for authorised dealers’ purchases from the public (23.0
debt consolidation and refinancing continued per cent) and their sales to the public (24.2 per
to drive consumer credit, registering year-on- cent). Purchases of foreign exchange from the public
year expansions of 2.9 per cent and 6.7 per cent, by authorised dealers over US$20,000 reached
respectively, by December 2020. Motor vehicle US$3,298.2 million in 2020. Approximately 62.0
loans, another major lending category, declined by per cent of purchases originated from the energy
December 2020 (0.6 per cent) compared to 2.5 sector, which remains the main source of supply
per cent in December 2019. Further disaggregation to the market. However, declining energy sector
of this category showed lending for used cars was performance over 2020 resulted in a 30.1 per cent
healthy but decelerated over the year, reaching 7.4 decrease in inflows relative to 2019.
per cent in December 2020 compared to 15.5 per
cent one year earlier, while loans for new motor Sales of foreign exchange to the public by
vehicles were lethargic, declining by 2.0 per cent. authorised dealers over US$20,000 amounted
Meanwhile, credit card loans declined by 2.5 per to US$4,501.1 million in 2020. While credit
cent in December 2020. cards absorbed the largest share of all sales (31.0
per cent), retail and distribution (26.0 per cent),
Real estate mortgage lending grew in 2020, albeit energy companies (9.7 per cent), manufacturing
at a slower pace when compared to 2019. Real (9.3 per cent), and automobile companies (6.2 per
estate mortgage lending grew by 4.2 per cent in cent) made up the bulk of the remainder of foreign
December 2020 compared to 12.5 per cent one exchange sales, by authorised dealers to the public
year earlier. Residential real estate mortgages for over US$20,000. The Central Bank’s support to the
existing homes grew 6.2 per cent, while loans for market amounted to US$1,292.2 million in 2020,
new houses and renovation expanded by 5.4 per almost proportional to the net sales gap of $1,206.0
cent and 1.1 per cent, respectively in December million realised in 2019. The weighted average
2020. On the other hand, lending for the purchase TTD/USD selling rate appreciated slightly from
of land declined by 1.6 per cent in December 2020. TT$6.7791/US$1 in December 2019 to TT$6.7819/
US$1 in December 2020.
Data to December 2020 indicated that currency
in active circulation was boosted due to the base
effect of the demonetisation of the TT$100 cotton
note, registering growth of 53.0 per cent year-
on-year. On the other hand, there was a significant
increase in demand deposits (17.1 per cent year-
on-year) which remained positive since December
2019. M1-A increased by 21.1 per cent year-on-
year as demand deposits increased. Growth in M2
was also significant in December 2020 (10.9 per
cent year-on-year) and can be attributed to a 5.2
per cent expansion in saving deposits.
27
CHAPTER SEVEN – CAPITAL MARKETS
STOCK MARKET improved sales largely from Jamaica and Barbados,

in addition to benefiting from a reduction in
Following a positive performance in 2019, the financial expenses due to lower debt levels and
domestic stock market exhibited a substantial the cessation of operations from a less financially
decline in 2020, largely stemming from the viable subsidiary. All other sub-indices recorded
COVID-19 shock (Figure 1). In March 2020, as declines over the year: Conglomerates (-2.0 per
the potential for the virus to significantly disrupt cent), Trading (-7.0 per cent), Banking (-10.1 per
domestic economic conditions became evident, cent), Property (-12.5 per cent), Manufacturing I
a significant sell-off of stock occurred as investors (-12.7 per cent), Non-Banking Finance (-13.4 per
attempted to reduce their equity exposure. This cent) and Energy (-29.0 per cent). In particular, the
market shock resulted in the major Composite Price decline in the Energy sub-index was a result of a
Index (CPI) declining by 16.5 per cent, representing fall in the stock price of Trinidad and Tobago NGL
a fall in stock market capitalisation of $24.4 billion Limited (TTNGL), triggered by the adverse effects
to $123.8 billion over the two-month period ending of the pandemic on the Mont Belvieu commodity
April 2020. Over the remainder of the year, the price and production disruptions which affected
market observed some recovery. However, overall, feedstock supplies to Phoenix Park Gas Processors
for the year 2020, the CPI declined by 9.9 per Limited. In terms of the top performing stock,
cent, driven by declines in both the All T&T Index National Flour Mills (NFM) expanded by 59.3 per
(ATI) (-5.2 per cent) and the Cross Listed Index cent, driven by higher sales and gross profits, in
(CLI) (-18.4 per cent). The market capitalisation of addition to a decline in operational costs. Despite
the Trinidad and Tobago Stock Market fell by 9.8 the strong performance of the NFM stock price, the
per cent over 2020 and ended the year at $129.4 Manufacturing I sub-index declined over the year.
billion. A similar large decline was observed in the This was primarily due to Guardian Media Limited
regional stock markets as the Jamaican stock index (-54.4 per cent) and One Caribbean Media (-43.1
(JSE) and the Barbados stock exchange (BSE) fell by per cent) which was impacted by business closures
22.4 per cent and 17.8 per cent, respectively. and reduced advertising expenditure by local
businesses as a result of the pandemic.
FIGURE 1
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO Despite the volatility observed in early 2020,
trading activity remained relatively subdued
STOCK INDEX RETURNS
over the year. During 2020, the market observed
2,200 61.25 million shares being exchanged at a value of
140 $1,042.9 million. In comparison, trading volume
2,000
over the same period in 2019 was 76.9 million
Index Value
Index Value
1,800 120
1,600
shares at a total value of $1,102.3 million. In
100
2020, the market trading volume was dominated
1,400
80 by the Non-Banking Finance sub-index, which
1,200
60
accounted for 33.0 per cent (20.2 million shares) of
1,000
the total share traded. However, trading value was
800 40 commanded by the Banking sub-index at 46.1 per
cent or $480.4 million.
Ap 6
Ap 7
Ap 8
Ap 9
0
De 6
Au 7
De 7
Au 8
De 8
Au 9
De 9
Au 0
De 0
c-1
c-1
c-1
c-1
c-2
g-1
r-1
g-1
r-1
g-1
r-1
g-1
r-2
g-2
Au
Composite Price Index (Left Axis) All T&T Index (Left Axis)
Cross Listed (Right Axis)
Source: Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchange
Mirroring the deterioration in market conditions,

most sub-indices declined over 2020 (Figures
2 and 3). The only sub-index to record positive
movements was Manufacturing II (25.0 per cent)
as Trinidad Cement Limited (TCL) experienced
28
FIGURE 2 PRIMARY DEBT MARKET

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
STOCK MARKET SUB-INDEX RETURNS Provisional information suggests that activity on
the primary debt market in 2020 was higher when
DECEMBER 2019 TO DECEMBER 2020
compared to 2019 (Figure 4 and Table 14). Over
40.0 the year, the market issued 22 bonds at a face value
30.0
25.01
of $14,828.0 million. The Central Government
20.0 was the primary borrower, issuing nine securities
10.0 at $10,512.0 million for the purpose of budgetary
Per Cent
0.0 support, the settlement of VAT refunds, loan

-10.0
-2.03
-6.98 -10.15
guarantee support for Small and Medium Enterprises
-20.0
-12.51 -12.66 -13.42
(SME), and the refinancing of maturing issues. State
-30.0
-29.05
Enterprises issued 10 bonds over the year, raising
-40.0 $3,850.9 million, while two private sector entities,
Manufacturing II
Conglomerates
one domestic and one regional, borrowed $185.0

Manufacturing I
Non-Bank
Banking
Trading
Energy
Property
million. Additionally, another private sector entity

raised $280.0 million for the purpose of a public-
Source: Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchange
private contractual agreement for construction of
the Ministry of Health’s headquarters in Port-of-
Spain. In comparison, private placements in 2019
totaled 17, with a face value of $11,300.7 million.
FIGURE 3
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO INDIVIDUAL FIGURE 4
STOCK RETURNS ANNUAL PRIMARY DEBT SECURITY ACTIVITY
DECEMBER 2019 TO DECEMBER 2020 (2010 - 2020P)
80.0 20,000
60.0
ATI CLI
40.0 15,000
Pr cent
Pr cent
20.0
10,000
0.0
NFM
FCI
LJWB
PLD
WCO
NCBFG
OCM
FIRST
SBTT
SFC
GKC
TCL
AMBL
RFHL
AHL
AMCL
GHL
AGL
PHL
JMMBGL
UCL
NGL
NEL
GML
MASSY
-20.0
5,000
-40.0
-60.0 -
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-80.0 Government - TT Government - Caricom Government - Caricom State - Caricom
Public-Private - TT Private - TT Private - TT
Source: Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchange Source: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago
p Provisional.
29
TABLE 14
PRIMARY DEBT SECURITY ACTIVITY
JANUARY - DECEMBER 2020P
Period Issued Borrower Face Value Period to Coupon Rate Placement

(TT$ Mn) Maturity Per Annum Type
Jan-20 Trinidad Commercial 30.00 5.0 years Fixed rate Private

Development Company 5.75%
Limited
Feb-20 Water and Sewerage 675.4 14.0 years Fixed rate Private
Authority of Trinidad and (US$100.0Mn) 5.60%
Tobago (WASA)
First Citizens Investment 200.00 3.0 years Fixed rate Private

Services Limited (FCIS) 3.30%
Telecommunication Services 59.28 0.9 years Fixed rate Private

of Trinidad and Tobago 5.213%
Limited (TSTT) (TR1)
Mar-20 Telecommunication Services 40.716 0.8 years Fixed rate Private

of Trinidad and Tobago 5.213%
Limited (TSTT) (TR2)
Central Government of 1,500.00 20.0 years Fixed rate Private

Trinidad and Tobago 5.74%
First Citizens Bank 623.4 5.0 years Fixed rate Private

(US$92.36Mn) 4.25%
Central Government of 750.00 3.0 years Fixed rate Private

Apr-20 Central Government of 693.1 3.0 years Fixed rate Private

Trinidad and Tobago (US$102.39Mn) 6.30%
May-20 Portland (Barbados) Ltd 155.0 2.0 years Fixed rate Private
(US$23.0Mn) 7.50%
Central Government of 1,300.00 1.0 year Fixed rate Private

(Tranche A)

(Tranche B)

Trinidad and Tobago (VAT 3.30%
Bond - Tranche A)
Trinidad and Tobago Housing 650.00 10.0 years Variable Private

Development Corporation rate;
(HDC) 5.832%
30
TABLE 14 continued

Jun-20 National Maintenance 300.00 9.0 years Fixed rate Private

Training and Security 5.20%
Company Limited (NMTSC)


Jul-20 Central Government of 2000 3.0 years Fixed rate Private

Trinidad and Tobago (VAT 3.30%
Bond - Tranche B)
Sep-20 First Citizens Investment 169.07 1.0 year Fixed rate Private
Services Limited (FCIS) (US$25.0Mn) 2.15%
Oct-20 Central Government of 1,000.00 16.0 years Fixed rate Private

Water and Sewerage 200.00 8.0 years Fixed rate Private

Authority of Trinidad and 5.00%
Tobago (WASA) - Tranche 1
Water and Sewerage 220.00 21.0 years Fixed rate Private

Authority of Trinidad and 7.50%
Tobago (WASA) - Tranche 2
The Urban Development 213.00 2.0 years Fixed rate Private

Corporation of Trinidad and 3.31%
Tobago (UDECOTT)
Nov-20 Asclepius Holdings Limited 280.00 17.08 years Fixed rate Private
Central Government of 7.325%
Trinidad and Tobago

Trinidad and Tobago Mortgage

Finance Company Limited
(TTMF) (TR1)

(TTMF) (TR2)

(TTMF) (TR3)
31
TABLE 14 continued

Dec-20 Central Government of 1,200.0 25.0 years Fixed rate Private


Trinidad and Tobago (US$100.0Mn) 3.75%

p Provisional.
32
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT SECONDARY BOND FIGURE 5

MARKET, YIELD CURVE29 AND BOND INDEX ANNUAL SECONDARY GOVERNMENT
DEBT SECURITY ACTIVITY
Despite recording fewer trades, activity on the
secondary Government bond market during
2020 was stronger in terms of face value (Figure
5). Following somewhat muted activity during the 2,000.0 200.0
first half of the year (a total of three trades), activity
TT$Millions
Number
on the secondary Government bond market picked 1,500.0 150.0
up substantially over the second half of 2020.

1,000.0 100.0
Overall, the market recorded 22 trades with a total
face value traded of $448.7 million. In comparison,
500.0 50.0
during 2019, market trades totaled 55 and the face
value traded was $182.0 million. 0.0 0.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Conversely, activity on the secondary corporate

Government - TT Government - Caricom
bond market30 during 2020 was higher in terms of
trades, but lower in face value traded. Over the year, Source: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago
the secondary corporate bond market recorded
131 trades at a total face value of $14.8 million. In
comparison, during 2019, the market observed 118
trades at a total face value of $21.98 million.
FIGURE 6
The Government sector yield curve generally TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO GOVERNMENT
exhibited a steepening trend over 2020 (Figure YIELD CURVE
6). Over the year, the short term 3-month rate
declined by 100 basis points to 0.08 per cent, the 8.0 100.0
6-month rate fell by 137 basis points to 0.10 per 7.0 50.0
cent, and the 1-year rate plummeted by 207 basis 6.0 0.0
Spread (BP)
points to 0.22 per cent. The declining trend in short- 5.0
-50.0
Yield
term rates was due to the elevated excess liquidity 4.0

-100.0
conditions which gave rise to substantial demand 3.0
-150.0
for Treasury securities, placing downward pressures 2.0
-200.0
on short-term Treasury rates. Conversely, the longer- 1.0
term rates on the curve trended up over the period. 0.0 -250.0
The benchmark 10-year rate increased by 14 basis

29 ears
30 ears
rs
21 ears
22 ears
23 ears
24 ears
25 ears
26 ears
27 ears
28 ears
18 ears
19 ears
20 ears
13 ears
14 ears
15 ears
16 ears
17 ears
11 ears
12 ears
1 y ar
2 y ar
7 y ar s
8 y ar s
9 y ar s
10 ear s
3 y ar s
4y s
5 y ar s
6 y ar s
0. 5 ear
ear
y ea
ye
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
5y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
0. 2
points to 4.68 per cent, while the 15-year rate

jumped by 32 basis points to 5.59 per cent in 2020. Spread (BP) December-20 December-19
The increase in medium- to long-term yields suggests

that despite the elevated liquidity conditions and an Source: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago
accommodative monetary policy position, investors
are placing higher risk and term premiums on long-
term government securities due to the government’s
increasing financing requirements. This was reflected
in the Central Government bond price index which
declined by 1.5 per cent over the year. The lower
bond prices would also cause bond holders and
portfolio managers to rebalance portfolios, reflected
in the pick-up in secondary market activity over the
second half of 2020.
29
The TT Treasury Yield curve was launched in September 2014 by the Central Bank. The curve is based on data from the
Reserves and Domestic Market Management Department, contributor market reads, and the Stock Exchange Secondary
Government bond market. The curve is intended for use as a benchmark for government securities.
30
The secondary corporate bond market records the trading activity of the three bonds issued by the National Investment Fund
Holding Company Limited (NIFHCL), which were listed in September 2018.
33
MUTUAL FUNDS INDUSTRY Collective Investment Scheme (CIS) data published

by the Trinidad and Tobago Securities and Exchange
Despite the volatility in the local and international Commission (TTSEC)33 suggests that during 2020,
capital markets during the first quarter of the year, the total value of Assets Under Management (AUM)
the domestic mutual fund industry grew in 2020 for all registered funds recorded a 12.9 per cent
(Figure 7). Aggregate funds under management31 growth to $59,586.4 million. The industry growth
improved by 7.1 per cent to $50,488.8 million in was supported by net sales of $2,891.9 million over
2020, compared to a 6.6 per cent increase in 2019. the year, encompassing $20,176.8 million in sales,
The growth of the industry was supported primarily and $17,284.8 million in redemptions.
by a 16.1 per cent growth in Money Market funds
to end the period at $13,655.4 million. Similarly,
Income funds, the largest component, grew by 3.9
per cent to $29,064.7 million, while Equity funds
FIGURE 7
increased by 4.8 per cent to $7,354.1 million.
MUTUAL FUNDS – AGGREGATE FUND VALUE
Finally, funds classified as ‘Other’32 registered a 5.9
per cent increase to $414.6 million.
55,000.0
In terms of different types of fund pricing, the fixed 50,000.0
Net Asset Value (NAV) funds increased by 9.5 per 45,000.0
cent to $36,762.6 million, while floating NAV funds
TT$ Millions
40,000.0
gained just 1.2 per cent to $13,726.2 million. The
35,000.0
jump in fixed NAV funds is reflective of increased
investor demand for principal investment guarantees. 30,000.0
Additionally, in terms of currency composition, TT 25,000.0
dollar denominated mutual funds observed an 8.2 20,000.0
per cent growth to $41,373.4 million while foreign

M 7
0
8
0
8
20
18
19
20
18
19
-1
-2
-1
-1
-2
-1
-1
p-
p-
p-
ec
ec
ar
ar
ar
n-
n-
n-
ec
ec
Se
Se
Se
M
M
Ju
Ju
Ju
D
D
currency denominated funds gained 2.3 per cent to
Other Funds Money Market Funds Equity Funds Income Funds
$9,115.4 million.
Sources: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago and Trinidad and
The recovery and growth of the mutual funds Tobago Securities and Exchange
industry was supported by net sales of $2,555.8
million, comprising $16,471.6 million in sales and
$13,915.8 million in redemptions. In comparison,
over 2019 net sales amounted to $1,348.4 million.
During 2020, net sales were observed in all fund
types: Money Market funds ($1,856.4 million),
Income funds ($527.6 million), Equity funds
($157.7 million) and “Other” funds ($14.0 million).
Furthermore, echoing the drive towards liquidity
and price stability, fixed NAV funds observed
$2,991.8 million in net sales, while floating NAV
funds witnessed $436.1 million in net redemptions.
31
Aggregate funds under management refer to mutual fund information collected by the Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago,
including funds managed by the Trinidad and Tobago Unit Trust Corporation, Royal Bank of Trinidad and Tobago, Republic
Bank Limited and First Citizens Bank Limited.
32
Other funds represent high yield funds and special purpose funds.
33
CIS data from the TTSEC captures 69 registered funds from 15 issuers.
34
CHAPTER EIGHT – INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND PAYMENTS

(Data in this section are in US dollars unless otherwise indicated)
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS implemented by the Government during the second

quarter of 2020. Meanwhile, imports contracted
Trinidad and Tobago’s external accounts recorded by an estimated 21.7 per cent year-on-year over
an overall surplus of $377.5 million (2.3 per cent the first nine months of 2020, largely on account
of GDP) during the first nine months of 2020, a of decreased domestic demand for non-energy
reversal from the deficit of $676.1 million (3.9 per products, particularly for capital goods and inedible
cent of GDP) over the same period in 2019 (Table crude materials, as the uncertainty surrounding the
15A and Appendix Table A.33 (A)). At the end of pandemic dampened investment and consumer
September 2020, Trinidad and Tobago’s stock of activities. This was further compounded by lower
gross official reserves amounted to $7,306.4 million, demand for fuel by the domestic economy over the
equivalent to 8.7 months of prospective imports of reference period.
goods and services. The current account surplus
narrowed during the January to September 2020 The deficit on the services account narrowed
period mainly due to a fall-off in export earnings, to $725.0 million (4.4 per cent of GDP) in the
particularly energy exports. Meanwhile, the financial first nine months of 2020, compared to $808.5
account recorded a net inflow, primarily on account million (4.6 per cent of GDP) in the same period
of transactions in the other and portfolio investment one year earlier. This improved outturn was
categories. underpinned by a smaller deficit on the Other
Business Services sub-account as residents reduced
The COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing domestic imports of technical, trade-related and other
containment measures hampered Trinidad and business services. Meanwhile, the Transport Services
Tobago’s international trade during 2020. The sub-account also recorded a smaller deficit during
narrowed current account surplus during the the first nine months of 2020 reflecting a decline
first nine months of 2020 was underpinned by a in the demand for foreign goods by residents that
sharp decline in exports, which overshadowed required sea and air transport. Although the Travel
the reduction in imports. Export earnings were Services account recorded a surplus, it narrowed by
estimated to have deteriorated by more than one- more than half (58.1 per cent) over the reference
third of its value (36.1 per cent) over the period, period, when compared to the same period in
primarily due to a fall-off in energy exports. Year- 2019. This deterioration on the Travel account was
on-year declines were reported across all energy a direct result of the fall-off in visitor arrivals and
commodities over the first nine months of 2020, of its associated expenditure, following the closure of
which the largest were: methanol (50.0 per cent), the nation’s borders in March 2020. In terms of
liquefied natural gas (48.6 per cent) and crude oil the primary income account, lower repatriations
(39.8 per cent). The loss of receipts from energy of earnings abroad by foreign-owned energy
exports corresponded to suppressed international companies were mainly responsible for the account
energy prices34 and reduced domestic energy moving to a surplus from a deficit in the previous
production volumes35. On the non-energy side, year. Meanwhile, the secondary income account
reductions in the categories of manufactured goods, recorded a larger surplus mainly on account of a
machinery and transport equipment, and beverages reduction in private transfers abroad owing to the
and tobacco contributed to the decline in non- downturn in domestic economic activity.
energy exports. Moreover, the downturn in overall
export performance primarily reflected the adverse The financial account recorded a net inflow of
effects of COVID-19 on global market conditions, $157.4 million in the first nine months of 2020,
coupled with weakened domestic production a reversal from a net outflow of $817.8 million
as businesses adhered to lockdown measures registered over the same period one year earlier.
34
Over the period January to Spetember 2020. West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell to an average of US$38.23 per barrel
from an average of US$57.04 per barrel when compared to the same period in 2019. Meanwhile, Henry Hub natural
gas price declined to an average of US$1.86 per mmbtu over the first nine months of 2020 from an average or US$2.62
per mmbtu over the same period in 2019.
35
Domestic energy sector activity declined as a result of the closure and suspension of several petrochemical plants.
See Chapter Two - Domestic Economic Activity.
35
This outturn largely reflected movements in other and During the nine-month period January to
portfolio investment categories. More specifically, September 2020, movements in direct investment
the increase in other36 investment liabilities was assets and liabilities resulted in a net outflow of
driven by loans incurred by the Central Government $458.3 million. The decline recorded in direct
as well as higher currency and deposit liabilities investment liabilities (direct investment in Trinidad
owed by residents. In particular, the rise in Central and Tobago by foreign investors) was due to negative
Government external borrowings was partly due to reinvestment of earnings37. These transactions
support measures aimed at mitigating the impact of occurred primarily within the energy sector.
COVID-19 on the domestic economy. At the same Meanwhile, direct investment assets increased
time, the decline in other investment assets was owing to equity transactions by domestic financial
mainly attributable to a fall in trade credits and other institutions.
accounts owed by non-residents. However, this Trinidad and Tobago’s gross official reserves
decline was partially offset by increases in currency amounted to $6,953.8 million at the end of
and deposits, and loan assets held abroad. December 2020, $24.8 million higher than the
level recorded at the end of 2019. The improvement
Financial flows in the portfolio investment in the level of reserves was mainly attributable
account recorded a net inflow of $243.6 million, to inflows associated with drawdowns from the
primarily reflective of a fall in portfolio assets. Heritage and Stabilisation Fund (HSF) and proceeds
Over the period under review, the reduction in from Central Government external borrowings,
portfolio assets stemmed from equity transactions as which were measures taken to mitigate against the
well as a decline in long-term debt securities (bonds negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the
and notes) held by domestic financial institutions. domestic economy. More importantly, Trinidad and
Meanwhile, the rise in portfolio liabilities was a Tobago’s gross official reserves remained above the
result of an increase in long-term debt securities traditional measures of adequacy over the course
owed by the Central Government. of 202038.
36
Other investment comprises currency and deposits, loans, insurance, pension and standardised guarantee schemes, trade
credit and advances, other accounts receivable/payable and special drawing rights (liabilities).
37
Reinvested earnings may be negative due to losses by direct investment enterprises or if dividends payable in a period are larger
than net earnings in that period.
38
The traditional measures of reserve adequacy and its related benchmarks are: import cover (3.0 months); reserves to broad
money (20.0 per cent); reserves to short-term external debt (1:1 ratio).
36
TABLE 15A
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO: SUMMARY BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
/US$MILLIONS/
2016r 2017r 2018p 2019p Jan-Sep Jan-Sep

2019p 2020p
Current Account -779.5 1,409.1 1,612.6 1,056.0 999.4 372.7
Goods and Services -361.2 1,080.8 2,412.8 1,641.9 1,381.5 23.1
Goods, net* 1,415.7 3,193.0 4,124.2 2,730.6 2,190.0 748.1
Exports** 8,504.4 9,644.7 10,755.6 8,764.3 6,716.1 4,293.6
Energy 6,649.9 7,867.7 9,089.9 6,973.6 5,360.9 3,227.8
Non-Energy 1,854.5 1,777.0 1,665.7 1,790.7 1,355.2 1,065.8
Imports** 7,088.7 6,451.7 6,631.4 6,033.7 4,526.2 3,545.5
Fuels*** 1,542.3 1,617.7 1,755.3 1,222.1 914.4 520.0
Other 5,546.4 4,834.0 4,876.1 4,811.7 3,611.8 3,025.5
Services, net -1,776.9 -2,112.2 -1,711.3 -1,088.6 -808.5 -725.0
Primary Income, net -428.2 48.9 -700.5 -607.8 -409.2 312.3
Secondary Income, net 10.0 279.5 -99.8 21.8 27.2 37.3
Capital Account 0.2 1.2 2.4 10.3 10.2 6.2

Financial Account -1,386.8 449.6 174.6 574.7 817.8 -157.4
Direct Investment -1.7 458.8 765.2 -69.8 -49.4 458.3
Net Acquisition of Financial Assets -25.3 -12.0 65.0 114.2 92.8 129.5
Net Incurrence of Liabilities -23.6 -470.9 -700.2 184.0 142.2 -328.9
Portfolio Investment -1,402.8 373.1 418.1 1,453.9 1,381.1 -243.6
Net Acquisition of Financial Assets -97.1 224.1 350.4 1,245.4 877.1 -141.9
Net Incurrence of Liabilities 1,305.7 -148.9 -67.7 -208.5 -504.0 101.6
Financial Derivatives 0.0 4.7 5.3 -0.2 -1.3 -8.7
Net Acquisition of Financial Assets 0.0 4.4 5.2 -0.4 -0.4 -8.9
Net Incurrence of Liabilities 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.9 -0.2
Other Investment**** 17.8 -386.9 -1,014.0 -809.1 -512.6 -363.4
Net Acquisition of Financial Assets -93.8 163.1 -309.9 329.1 737.3 -169.1
Net Incurrence of Liabilities -111.6 550.1 704.1 1,138.2 1,249.9 194.3
Net Errors and Omissions -1,074.7 -2,056.7 -2,235.0 -1,137.7 -868.0 -158.7
Overall Balance -467.2 -1,096.0 -794.7 -646.1 -676.1 377.5

(Per Cent of GDP)
Current Account -3.5 6.3 6.8 4.6 5.7 2.3
Goods, net 6.3 14.2 17.4 11.8 12.6 4.6
Exports 37.8 42.9 45.3 37.8 38.6 26.2
Imports 31.5 28.7 27.9 26.0 26.0 21.6
Services, net -7.9 -9.4 -7.2 -4.7 -4.6 -4.4
Overall Balance -2.1 -4.9 -3.3 -2.8 -3.9 2.3
Memorandum Items
Gross Official Reserves^ 9,465.8 8,369.8 7,575.0 6,929.0 6,898.9 7,306.4
Import Cover (months)^ 10.5 9.7 8.0 7.7 7.7 8.7
37
TABLE 15A continued

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO: SUMMARY BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
/US$MILLIONS/
Notes:
1. Due to COVID-19 related restrictions implemented by the Government and the resulting work-from-home measures employed by some
companies, survey response rates have been below historical levels for the first three quarters of 2020. Therefore, as additional data from
surveys are incorporated upon receipt, estimates may be subject to revisions in the future.
2. GDP prior to 2020 are sourced from the CSO and that for 2020 are Ministry of Finance estimates sourced from 2020/21 original budget.
3. This table is an analytical presentation of the Balance of Payments and is presented in accordance with the IMF’s Balance of Payments and
International Investment Position Manual, Sixth Edition (BPM6). Refer to Box 3 of the Economic Bulletin, March 2017 for a Technical
Note on the Transition to BPM6. The following financial account movements are represented with a negative sign:
• A decrease in assets (inflow)
• A decrease in liabilities (outflow)
• A net inflow in net balances
The following financial account movements are represented with a positive sign:
• An increase in assets (outflow)
• An increase in liabilities (inflow)
• A net outflow in net balances
* Energy goods data comprise estimates by the Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago.
** Exports and imports are reported on a FOB (Free on Board) basis. Energy exports include exports of petroleum, petroleum products and
related materials and the exports of petrochemicals.
*** Includes petroleum, petroleum products and related materials.
**** Other investment comprises currency and deposits, loans, insurance, pension, and standardised guarantee schemes, trade credit and
advances, other accounts receivable/payable and special drawing rights (liabilities).
^ End of Period.
r Revised.
p Provisional.
38
INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITION On the other hand, Trinidad and Tobago’s stock
(Data in this section are in US dollars unless of external liabilities increased by $13.5 million
otherwise indicated) to $20,107.9 million primarily due to other and
portfolio investment. The expansion in the stock
The net international investment position (NIIP) of other investment liabilities was on account of a
was estimated at $3,652.8 million as at the end rise in currency and deposits and other accounts
of September 2020, a decline of $561.9 million owed to non-residents. Meanwhile, the increase
from the end of 2019 (Table 15B). The reduction in portfolio investment liabilities stemmed from
was mainly driven by the decline in external assets an increase in debt securities owed by the Central
coupled with an increase in external liabilities. Government to non-resident entities.
At the end of September 2020, the stock of

external assets deteriorated by $548.4 million to
$23,760.8 million, driven by declines in portfolio
and other investment. More specifically, the fall-
off in portfolio assets reflected reduced domestic
holdings of foreign debt securities as well as equity
securities primarily by domestic financial institutions.
Concurrently, reductions in trade credits and other
accounts owed by non-residents were largely
responsible for the decline in other investment.
However, reserve assets increased during the nine-
month period, supported by inflows from Central
Government external borrowings and drawdowns
from the HSF.
TABLE 15B
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO: INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITION
(AT END OF PERIOD)
/US$MILLIONS/
2016r 2017r 2018p 2019p Sep 2020p
Net International Investment Position 4,967.1 4,658.7 3,685.3 4,214.7 3,652.8
Assets 24,481.6 24,171.9 22,853.8 24,309.1 23,760.8
Direct Investment 810.5 829.6 913.1 1,361.3 1,678.4

Portfolio Investment 9,382.6 10,007.1 9,692.0 11,075.1 9,990.3
Financial Derivatives 0.2 4.4 10.1 9.0 0.3
Other Investment* 4,822.5 4,961.0 4,663.5 4,934.9 4,785.2
Reserve Assets 9,465.8 8,369.8 7,575.0 6,929.0 7,306.4
Liabilities 19,514.5 19,513.2 19,168.4 20,094.4 20,107.9
Direct Investment 9,545.2 9,082.9 8,452.4 8,455.3 8,162.9

Portfolio Investment 4,291.6 4,132.4 4,064.1 3,861.0 3,983.1
Financial Derivatives 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.3
Other Investment* 5,676.2 6,296.6 6,651.1 7,777.8 7,961.6

Note: Due to COVID-19 related restrictions implemented by the Government and the resulting work-from-home measures employed by some
companies, survey response rates have been below historical levels for the first three quarters of 2020. Therefore, as additional data from surveys
are incorporated upon receipt, estimates may be subject to revisions in the future.
* Other investment comprises currency and deposits, loans, insurance, pension, and standardised guarantee schemes, trade credit and advances,
other accounts receivable/payable and special drawing rights (liabilities).
r Revised.
p Provisional.
39
EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATES39
Trinidad and Tobago’s international price

competitiveness, as measured by the trade
weighted real effective exchange rate (TWREER),
weakened by 1.0 per cent over 2020 (Figure 8).
Movement in the TWREER was mainly influenced
by the exchange rate effect, which outweighed the
inflation effect, when compared to the country’s
major trading partners. In particular, the loss of
price competitiveness was reflective of the faster
pace of depreciation of the currencies of Trinidad
and Tobago’s major trading partners, relative to the
general stability of the domestic exchange rate over
the 12 months to December 2020. However, this
outturn was partially offset by lower domestic prices
when compared to the country’s major trading
partners over the same period. Overall, this implies
that Trinidad and Tobago’s exports were more
expensive in external markets.
FIGURE 8
TRADE WEIGHED REAL AND NOMINAL
EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATES
(2015=100)
105
100
Index Value
95
90
TWREER TWNEER
85
39
The Effective Exchange Rate Indices were rebased to 2015 from 2000 to reflect changes in trading patterns and partners
between Trinidad and Tobago and the rest of the world. For further details on this exercise, please refer to the January 2020
Economic Bulletin.
40
CHAPTER NINE – INTERNATIONAL AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS spread of the virus, such as state-wide lockdowns,

reductions in air and sea travel, and closure
In 2020, the emergence of COVID-19 created of schools and businesses, weighed heavily on
unprecedented shocks throughout the global economic activity. Consumer spending, a key
economy40 (See Box 1). The virus, which produced metric of economic activity in the US, was thwarted
a localised disruption in China during early 2020, by weak labour market conditions amid rising
rapidly spread throughout the world triggering a unemployment rates and low wage growth. In
pandemic and a major shock to economic and particular, unemployment rates in the US averaged
financial systems. To limit its spread, countries were 8.1 per cent in 2020, more than double the rate of
forced to implement strict measures such as border 3.7 per cent recorded in the previous year. Inflation,
and business closures. Swift policy actions by fiscal as measured by the Core Personal Consumption
and monetary authorities reduced some contagion Expenditure (PCE) price index, remained below
effects and protected the more economically the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) 2.0 per cent
vulnerable households and businesses. target rate. Due to the economic downturn, the
Fed announced its commitment towards supportive
Despite aggressive containment measures, the monetary policy to achieve maximum employment,
virus continued to evolve creating uncertainty while also temporarily moving towards a flexible
regarding the future direction for economic average inflation target of 2.0 per cent41. In March
growth. In light of this development, the IMF, in 2020, the Fed lowered its federal funds target
its January 2021 WEO Update, estimated that range by 150 basis points to 0.00 to 0.25 per cent
the global economy contracted by 3.5 per cent in and maintained this range throughout the year.
2020. However, a solid recovery of 5.5 per cent Additionally, the Fed implemented several policy
is anticipated for world growth in 2021. These initiatives to limit the economic fall-out stemming
forecasts represent an improved outlook when from the pandemic, including an economic stimulus
compared to the IMF’s October 2020 WEO and package that provided US$2.3 trillion in loans42 to
hinges on the continued efficacy of economic specific states, households and businesses, as well as
and financial support policies, together with the buying back Treasury and government-guaranteed
expectations that the access to and distribution of mortgage-backed securities43 (Quantitative Easing).
vaccines will quickly return global economic activity Meanwhile, following the conclusion of the US
to pre-pandemic levels. 2020 Presidential Elections, Joseph Biden of the
Democratic Party was declared the winner by a
margin of 306 to 23244 electoral votes.
ADVANCED ECONOMIES
The United Kingdom (UK) experienced a more
Advanced economies registered weak growth in severe economic contraction in 2020 than during
2020 amid the economic fall-out associated with the 2008/09 global financial crisis. In 2020, the
the COVID-19 pandemic. Over 2020, economic UK economy shrank by 10.0 per cent, compared to
activity in the United States (US) contracted by growth of 1.4 per cent in the previous year (Table
3.4 per cent year-on-year (Table 16), ending 10 16). This lackluster performance was evidenced
consecutive years of positive economic growth. by weak household consumption and declines in
Public health measures implemented to limit the fixed and public investment. Reflective of subdued
40
According to the WHO Weekly Epidemiological Report on COVID-19, as of December 27, 2020, there have been a cumulative
79.2 million cases and 1.7 million deaths world-wide, with the United States (328,014 deaths), Brazil (190,488 deaths) and
India (147,622 deaths) representing the three leading countries in the number of deaths.
41
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) seeks to achieve maximum employment and a 2.0 per cent inflation rate over
the longer-run. With inflation persistently below this longer-run goal, the FOMC will aim to achieve inflation moderately above
2.0 per cent for some time so that inflation averages 2.0 per cent over time and longer-term inflation expectations remain well
anchored at 2.0 per cent.
42
The Fed’s injection of US$2.3 trillion comprises: offerings of $500.0 billion in loans to states and municipalities through the
purchase of municipal bonds and the expansion of existing corporate lending program (the Term Asset-Backed Securities
Lending Facility) to include more classes of low-rates and riskier debt; purchases of up to $600.0 billion in loans through the
Main Street program; financing of small banks through the Paycheck Protection Program of $349 billion; the expansion of
three existing credit facilities aimed at credit to households and businesses of $850.0 billion.
43
By the end of December 2020, the Fed’s portfolio of securities held outright grew to US$6.7 trillion from US$3.9 trillion in
mid-March 2020.
44
At least 270 of 538 Electoral College votes are required to win the US Presidency.
41
economic activity, inflationary pressures remained rates to remain at present levels until inflation
well below the 2.0 per cent target over the year. converges sufficiently close to the 2.0 per cent target.
Meanwhile, in line with market expectations, the Furthermore, the ECB introduced a temporary asset
Bank of England (BoE) lowered its official policy rate purchase programme, the Pandemic Emergency
to 0.1 per cent in March 2020, its lowest ever level, Purchase Programme, which has an overall budget
where it remained through to December 2020. This of €1,850.0 billion (around US$2,242.2 billion), to
was the first rate reduction since August 2018, as help bolster the economic recovery. Together with
the BoE maintained its commitment towards aiding monetary policy initiatives, the EU’s total pandemic
the economy in bridging the financial implications recovery package-fund is estimated at €2,364.3
of the virus. Furthermore, the quantitative easing billion (around US$2,870.5 billion) which will
programme was increased by £450.0 billion since provide financial relief to the more economically
March 2020, which brought the stock of assets vulnerable member states, while also supporting a
held in the Asset Purchase Facility to £895.0 billion sustainable transition out of the crisis for the EU.
(approximately US$1,181.4 billion) at the end
of 2020. In other developments, on December Similar to other advanced economies, the Japanese
24, 2020, following approximately five years of economy recorded its first contraction in almost
negotiations, the UK and the European Union a decade, in 2020 (Table 16). Lower private
(EU) reached a post-Brexit trade agreement which consumption and capital expenditure were primarily
outlines the new social and economic partnership responsible for the deterioration in economic
between both parties. Final details of the trade deal growth. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures remained
were concluded after nine rounds of negotiations subdued as weak consumer spending placed a drag
in 2020, which centered on: trade in goods and on prices. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) highlighted
services; transport; security and law enforcement; that economic activity and prices are anticipated
energy and civil nuclear cooperation; governance; to remain subdued for a prolonged period and
and future participation in EU programmes. reiterated its approach to the Quantitative and
Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) programme
Economic activity in the Euro Area deteriorated with the aim of supporting the economy and
amid ongoing constraints to household achieving the price stability target of 2.0 per cent.
consumption and investment activity. Real GDP To support this policy, the BOJ maintained its key
within the trading bloc contracted by 7.2 per cent short-term interest rate at -0.1 per cent throughout
year-on-year in 2020 (Table 16), with two of the 2020 and indicated that it would double its capacity
largest member economies, Germany and France, to purchase Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) and
recording steep declines of 5.4 per cent and 9.0 Japan Real Estate Investment Funds (J-REITs), with
per cent, respectively. Meanwhile, weak price an annual upper limit of ¥12.0 trillion (around
pressures in particular sectors, such as energy and US$114.6 billion) and ¥180.0 billion (around
services, manifested in a period of deflation45 which US$1,720.0 million), respectively. On the political
contributed towards an overall subdued inflation front, in September 2020, Yoshihide Suga became
outcome over 2020 for the Euro Area. The European Japan’s new Prime Minister, replacing Shinzo Abe
Central Bank (ECB) kept its benchmark interest rate who resigned due to health concerns, in late August
on the main refinancing operations unchanged at 2020.
0.0 per cent throughout 2020 and expects interest
TABLE 16
ADVANCED ECONOMIES: REAL GDP GROWTH
/PER CENT/
2016r 2017r 2018r 2019r 2020r 2021r 2022r
United States 1.7 2.3 3.0 2.2 -3.4 5.1 2.5

United Kingdom 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.4 -10.0 4.5 5.0
Euro Area 1.9 2.6 1.8 1.3 -7.2 4.2 3.6
Japan 0.5 2.2 0.3 0.3 -5.1 3.1 2.4
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database (October 2020) and Update (January 2021)
r Revised.
e Estimate.
f Forecast.
45
The Euro Area recorded five consecutive months of deflation from August to December 2020, averaging 0.3 per cent year-on-year.
42
BOX 1:
THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
ON OIL PRICES & STOCK MARKETS
This box discusses the unprecedented impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global oil prices
and United States (US) stock markets. During the first few months of 2020, the shock of the
pandemic resulted in substantial negative effects on the international energy industry. Strict
lockdown measures undertaken by many governments to address the pandemic resulted in a
reduction in international trade and travel, which led to a slow-down in demand for oil and other
energy-related commodities. This came at a time when the world economy was already faced
with slow growth and weak demand, compounded by a price war between Saudi Arabia and
Russia which stemmed from a disagreement on the terms of a deal surrounding a cut in crude oil
supply. As prices were already declining pre-pandemic (Chart 1), the onset of the pandemic was
an additional adverse shock to prices.
CHART 1
DAILY CRUDE OIL SPOT PRICES 2020
100
Pre-Pandemic WTI BRENT
80
60
Spot Prices
40
20
0
10/12/20
10/21/20
11/30/20
11/10/20
11/19/20
12/11/20
12/22/20
8/21/20
9/11/20
9/22/20
10/1/20
12/2/20
1/13/20
1/23/20
2/12/20
2/24/20
3/13/20
3/24/20
4/14/20
4/23/20
5/13/20
5/22/20
6/12/20
6/23/20
7/14/20
7/23/20
8/12/20
9/1/20
1/2/20
2/3/20
3/4/20
8/3/20
4/2/20
5/4/20
6/3/20
7/2/20
-20
-40
-60
Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA)
With a slow-down in demand for energy products in several key markets, coupled with storage
capacity constraints, fears arose that oil storage in the US was running out. These fears resulted
in crude oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot (and futures) prices turning negative on April 20,
2020. Border closures persisted throughout the majority of 2020 and thus, facilitated a general
low-energy-price environment as transportation fuel demand plummeted. Prices did, however,
show some signs of resurgence toward the tail-end of 2020 amid the development of COVID-19
vaccines and the settlement on production quotas among OPEC and its non-OPEC partners
(together known as OPEC+).
The economic impact of the pandemic placed significant pressures on global financial markets,
resulting in “heightened market risk aversion in ways not seen since the global financial crisis”
(OECD 2020). In 2019, prior to the onset of the pandemic, the major US stock market indices,
the S&P500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), recorded notable growth, expanding by
28.9 per cent and 22.3 per cent, respectively (Chart 2). However, in early 2020, as cases of the
coronavirus began to rise globally, financial market stability transitioned into panic. Following a
relatively flat performance in January 2020, the S&P500 and DJIA recorded substantial declines
in February and March 2020 (-19.9 per cent and -22.4 per cent, respectively). The sizeable
declines and increases in the implied volatilities on equity options resulted in the Chicago Board
43
BOX 1 continued
Options Exchange (CBOE) VIX volatility index1 spiking to crisis levels. During the same two-
month period, the VIX index recorded a daily average of 40.1 and peaked at 82.7 on March 16,
2020. In comparison, the last time the VIX index reached these high levels was during the 2007-
08 global financial crisis. Reflective of the fear and volatility in the markets, the S&P500 and DJIA
began to experience major sell-offs, resulting in four occurrences2 of Level-1 “circuit-breaker”3
events in March 2020 (Funakoshi and Hartman 2020), where trading activity was suspended for
15 minutes as a result of the indices declining by more than 7.0 per cent during the trading day.
An analysis of the market’s activity during the early months of the pandemic by Cox et al. (2020)
revealed that the increase in volatility was due mainly to large fluctuations in risk aversion and
market sentiment of investors.
CHART 2
US STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE AND VIX VOLATILITY INDEX
In March 2020, the US Stock Market recovery was primarily driven by Federal
Market recorded 4 circuit Reserve market support measures.
breaker events, each pausing
trading for 15-minutes.
40 60
VIX Volatility Index

50
36
Stock Indices
40
32
30
28
20
24
10
20 0
Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-29 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20
VIX Index (RHS) S&P500 (hundreds) Dow Jones (thousands)

Source: Bloomberg
Following the fear-driven instability during the first quarter of 2020, the US stock market
rebounded notably over the remainder of 2020. Apart from a few instances of declines amid
renewed concerns about the spreading of the coronavirus, as well as pre-election jitters, the
S&P500 and DJIA increased by 45.3 per cent and 39.6 per cent, respectively, over the nine-
month period ending December 2020. Furthermore, the market’s main fear gauge (VIX) fell
from the year’s high 82.69 in March 2020 to 22.75 at the end of December 2020. This rally on
Wall Street was driven primarily by near-zero Fed-fund interest rates and quantitative easing,
which supplied the market with unprecedented liquidity. In early March 2020, the Fed reduced
its Federal Funds rate by 1.5 percentage points to the range of 0.0 per cent to 0.25 per cent,
thereby lowering the cost of borrowing. Additionally, the Fed engaged in quantitative easing by
purchasing massive amounts of securities from financial markets and provided support lending
through a variety of credit facilities. Furthermore, the Fed offered forward guidance by stating
their commitment to keep rates low until the labour market and inflation reach target levels.
Despite the weak macroeconomic conditions in the US, these historic actions enacted by the Fed
fueled the resurgence in the US stock market over the remainder of 2020. Additionally, optimism
about the future state of the economy as coronavirus vaccines become available would have also
supported market recovery.
44
BOX 1 continued
Notes
The VIX volatility index is a benchmark index used to measure the markets expectation of
[1]
future volatility. The index is based on option trading of the S&P500 Index and is considered a
main gauge of US equity market volatility. A level above 20 is considered to be high volatility.
[2]
The circuit-breaker events occurred on March 9th, 12th, 16th and 18th, 2020.
A “circuit-breaker” event represents price change limits on the S&P500 which results in a
[3]
pausing of market-wide trading. Circuit breakers are triggered at three levels, representing a 7%,
13%, and 20% decline based on the previous trading day’s reference price.
References
Cox, Josue, Daniel L. Greenwald, and Sydney C. Ludvigson. (2020). “What Explains the
COVID-19 Stock Market? National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Working Paper Series.
Working Paper 27784.
Funakoshi, Minami, and Travis Hartman. (2020). “March Madness”. Reuters. Source: https://
graphics.reuters.com/USA-MARKETS/0100B5L144C/index.html
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (2020). “Global
Financial Markets Policy Responses to COVID-19”. OECD Policy Responses to Coronavirus
(COVID-19). March 2020. Source: https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/global-
financial-markets-policy-responses-to-covid-19-2d98c7e0/
45
EMERGING MARKETS AND DEVELOPING ECONOMIES remained below target47 for China, Brazil and Russia
(EMDES) as these economies experienced waning consumer
demand during the pandemic. However, inflation
After years of resilient growth, the COVID-19 was recorded above target in India reflecting higher
pandemic has negatively impacted economic food prices amid the festival season. Throughout
activity in EMDEs. Based on the IMF’s January 2020, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) kept its
2021 WEO Update, growth within the EMDEs one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR)
was estimated to have contracted by 2.4 unchanged at 3.85 per cent and 4.65 per cent,
per cent in 2020, compared to a positive respectively. Furthermore, in an effort to increase
economic output, the PBoC injected liquidity into
performance of 3.6 per cent in 2019. Growth
the financial system via open market operations.
in India contracted by 7.1 per cent (year-on-
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reduced its key
year) over 202046, as a result of sharp declines in policy rate by a cumulative 115 basis points to 4.0
consumption and investment activity. In Brazil, per cent at the end of 2020 in an effort to shore
growth fell by 4.5 per cent in 2020, driven by up economic growth, while ensuring that inflation
disruptions in trade and depressed consumer remained within the target range. Following four
demand within the services sector. Real GDP rate cuts, Russia’s main interest rate, the benchmark
also contracted in Russia due to declining one-week repo, ended 2020 at 4.25 per cent from
international commodity prices. Elsewhere, a 6.25 per cent at the start of the year. The Central
resumption in the manufacturing sector as well Bank of the Russian Federation (CRBF) indicated
that further rate reductions were likely, in order
as an increase in external demand for medical
to ensure that inflation converges to its target.
supplies contributed, in part, to the economic Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Brazil lowered its
growth in China of 2.3 per cent for the year overnight interbank interest rate by 250 basis points
2020 (Table 17). to a historic low of 2.0 per cent in 2020.
Monetary policy responses among the EMDEs

remained supportive in order to stimulate an
economic recovery and address inflationary
concerns. In 2020, movement in consumer prices
TABLE 17
EMERGING ECONOMIES: REAL GDP GROWTH
/PER CENT/
2016r 2017r 2018r 2019e 2020e 2021f 2022f
China 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.0 2.3 8.1 5.6

India* 8.3 7.0 6.1 4.2 -8.0 11.5 6.8
Russia 0.2 1.8 2.5 1.3 -3.6 3.0 3.9
Brazil -3.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 -4.5 3.6 2.6
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database (October 2020) and Update (January 2021)
* Data are presented on a fiscal year basis.
r Revised.
e Estimate.
f Forecast.
46
Based on the calendar year (January to December 2020).
47
Central Bank inflation target rates and ranges for selected emerging market and developing economies: China (3.0 per cent); Brazil (4.0 +/-
1.5 per cent); India (4.0+/-2.0 per cent); and Russia (4.0 per cent).
46
REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS quarrying; hotels and restaurants; and transport,

storage and communication. Notwithstanding
Economic growth in the LAC region was subdued economic activity, Jamaica’s inflation rate
in line with the performances of the world remained within the Bank of Jamaica’s (BoJ) target
economies. The slowdown in global and range of 4.0 to 6.0 per cent over 2020, while the
domestic activity, compounded by depressed stock of international reserves recorded a minor
international commodity prices, constrained decline over the year to December 2020. Similarly,
real GDP growth within the region. According the Barbados economy experienced a steep year-
to the IMF’s January 2021 WEO Update, on-year contraction of 11.6 per cent over the twelve
months of 2020, largely due to stalled tourism
growth in the LAC region is estimated to have
activity. However, international reserves reported
contracted by 7.4 per cent in 2020, from a an increase which was boosted by borrowings from
modest expansion of 0.2 per cent in 2019. The multilateral organisations.
region is expected to experience a slow pace
of economic growth as some countries faced In other developments, despite the economic
difficulty in controlling the pandemic, which challenges posed by the health crisis, Guyana’s
stalled the reopening of economies. In light of growing energy sector continued to represent a
economic conditions, and supported by well- bright spot for the country. Over the year, Exxon
contained inflation rates48, several central banks Mobil announced the discoveries of three new
offshore oil fields49 in the Starbroek Block, bringing
lowered their monetary policy rates during
the gross recoverable reserve in this block to more
2020, namely, Mexico, Chile, Colombia and
than an estimated nine billion oil equivalent barrels.
Peru. among the EMDEs remained supportive
in order to stimulate an economic recovery and In terms of monetary policy, Jamaica held its
address inflationary concerns. In 2020, movement key rate steady in 2020 while Barbados lowered
in consumer prices its discount rate. Throughout 2020, the Bank of
Jamaica (BoJ) maintained its benchmark interest
In the Caribbean, both tourism-dependent rate at 0.5 per cent with the aim of ensuring
and commodity-based countries experienced price stability within the target range. Meanwhile,
disruptions to domestic activity during 2020. the Central Bank of Barbados (CBB) adjusted its
International border controls along with broader monetary policy stance by reducing the discount
concerns regarding contagion via travel dampened rate, the rate at which the CBB provides overnight
tourism activity, while lower commodity prices lending to banks and deposit-taking non-banks, by
weighed on export earnings of commodity 5.0 per cent to 2.0 per cent. This action was taken
exporters. In Jamaica, real GDP contracted by 8.6 to provide a more supportive lending environment
per cent over January to December 2020 (Table by financial institutions to economically impacted
18), mainly on account of declines in the productive households and businesses affected by Covid-19.
and services sectors: manufacturing; mining and
48
Central Bank inflation target ranges for selected economies in the Latin American region: Mexico (3.0+/-1.0 per cent);
Colombia (3.0 +/- 1.0 per cent); Chile (3.0 per cent +/- 1.0 per cent); and Peru (2.0 +/-1.0 per cent).
49
In 2020, the following oil wells were discovered at the Starbroek Block: in January 2020 the Uaru oil well marked Exxon
Mobil’s 16th discovery, and in September 2020 the Yellowtail-2 and Redtail discoveries marked the 17th and 18th oil
well findings, respectively.
47
TABLE 18
SELECTED LAC: REAL GDP GROWTH
/PER CENT/
Country 2016r 2017r 2018r 2019e 2020e 2021f 2022f
Argentina -2.1 2.8 -2.6 -2.1 -10.4 4.5 2.7

The Bahamas 1.4 3.1 3.0 1.2 -14.8 4.6 5.5
Barbados 2.5 0.5 -0.6 -0.1 -11.6 7.4 3.9
Belize 0.1 1.9 2.1 -2.0 -16.0 8.0 5.0
Chile 1.7 1.2 4.0 1.1 -6.0 4.5 3.2
Colombia 2.1 1.4 2.5 3.3 -8.2 4.0 3.7
Eastern Caribbean Currency Union 3.0 1.2 3.8 2.8 -15.1 5.8 n.a.
Guyana 3.8 3.7 4.4 5.4 26.2 8.1 29.5
Haiti 1.5 1.2 1.5 -1.2 -4.0 1.2 1.0
Jamaica 1.5 0.7 1.9 0.9 -8.6 3.6 3.8
Mexico 2.6 2.1 2.2 -0.1 -8.5 4.3 2.5
Suriname -5.6 1.8 2.6 0.3 -13.1 1.5 2.0
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database (October 2020), Update (January 2021) and Regional Economic
Outlook, Western Hemisphere (October 2020)
r Revised.
e Estimate.
f Forecast.
48
CHAPTER TEN – INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY MARKETS
ENERGY COMMODITY PRICE INDEX INTERNATIONAL FOOD PRICES
The Energy Commodity Price Index (ECPI)50 fell International food prices, as measured by the
to an average of 61.4 in 2020 representing an Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
overall decline of 26.2 per cent, as prices of all Nations (UNFAO), increased 3.1 per cent in 2020.
commodities captured in the index declined. This compares to a decline of -0.8 per cent in 2019.
The ongoing pandemic was the main driving force The turnaround in prices was driven by an increase
behind sharp fall-offs in crude oil and natural gas in the Vegetable Oil price index which rose 19.4
prices, which in turn were transmitted further per cent in 2020, compared to a decline of -5.1 per
downstream to other commodities. cent in 2019. The Cereals price index increased 6.6
per cent in 2020 after a recorded decline of -4.2 per
Crude oil prices fell 31.1 per cent year-on-year cent in 2019. The Sugar price index slowed to 1.2
in 2020, driven predominantly by geopolitical per cent in 2020, while price declines were noted
tensions and adverse demand shocks due to in the Meat (-4.4 per cent) and Dairy (-1.0 per cent)
COVID-19. West Texas Intermediate Prices price indices.
averaged US$39.31 per barrel in 2020 compared
to US$57.01 per barrel the previous year. Brent
prices, meanwhile, averaged US$41.75 per barrel
in 2020 compared to US$64.36 per barrel in 2019.
The market for crude oil, at the commencement of
2020, was characterised by excess supply and low
demand as global growth slowed. Prices were further
suppressed by a price war between OPEC and non-
OPEC countries in the first quarter of the year.
Additionally, the closure of borders in key markets,
with the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, exerted
further downward pressure on crude oil prices over
the remainder of 2020. This, in part, contributed to
negative oil prices on the futures market near the
end of April 2020.51 The decline in crude oil prices
passed through to other commodities captured
within the index, notably jet fuel (-41.4 per cent),
gas oil (-36.4 per cent) and motor gasoline (-33.8
per cent).
Natural gas prices declined (-21.7 per cent) in

2020 on account of increased shale gas supply and
a downturn in demand in light of the pandemic.
Natural gas prices averaged US$2.21 per million
British Thermal Units (mmbtu) over the course of
the year, compared with US$2.40 per mmbtu in
2019. Lower natural gas prices aided the decline
in other downstream commodities such as natural
gasoline (-30.4 per cent), methanol (-18.8 per cent),
propane (-14.5 per cent), urea (-12.0 per cent) and
ammonia (-9.0 per cent).
50
The ECPI is a summary measure of the price movements of Trinidad and Tobago’s top ten energy-based commodity exports.
Developed in a collaborative effort between the Energy Chamber and the Central Bank, the series is based on export values in
2007 and complements other available price indicators, including individual commodities and sectoral export price indices
prepared by the Central Statistical Office. For further details on the computation of the Energy Commodity Prices Index (ECPI),
see Finch, K. and Cox, D. 2010. The Energy Commodity Price Index. Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago, Economic Bulletin,
Volume XII No. 2. pp.84.
51
On April 20, 2020, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures prices for delivery in May 2020 turned negative as fears arose that
oil storage space in the US was running out.
49
Appendix ONE
Economic
Statistics
Tables A.1 - A.36
CENTRAL BANK OF TRINIDAD & TOBAGO
TABLES A.1 - A.36

A.1 Real GDP Growth by Sector of Origin 55
A.2 Gross Domestic Product at Current Market Prices by Sector of Origin 56
A.3 Sectoral Composition of G.D.P. at Current Market Prices 57
A.4 Major Agricultural Commodities 58
A.5 Production and Utilisation of Crude Oil and Related Products and Petrochemicals 59
A.6 Production of Iron and Steel Products and Cement 60
A.7 Prices of Selected Export Commodities 61
A.8 Index of Domestic Production (1995=100) 62
A.9 Annual Changes in the Indices of Production and Hours Worked (All Employees) 63
A.10 Annual Changes in the Indices of Average Weekly Earnings and Employment (All Employees) 64
A.11 Annual Changes in the Indices of Real Earnings and Output per Man Hour Worked (All Employees) 65
A.12 Index of Retail Prices for Major Expenditure Categories 66
A.13 Index of Producers’ Prices 67
A.14 Central Goverment Fiscal Operations 68
A.15 Central Government Revenue 69
A.16 Central Government Expenditure 70
A.17 (A) Central Government External Debt 71
A.17 (B) Central Government Internal Debt 71
A.18 (A) Commercial Banks: Selected Data 72
A.18 (B) Summary Accounts of the Monetary System 73
A.19 Liquidity Position of Commercial Banks 74
A.20 Commercial Banks: Distribution of Loans and Advances by Sector 75
A.21 Commercial Banks: Percentage Distribution of Loans and Advances by Sector 76
A.22 Commercial Banks: Interest Rates 77
A.23 Money Supply 78
A.24 Finance Companies and Merchant Banks: Summary of Assets and Liabilities 79
A.25 Finance Companies and Merchant Banks: Distribution of Loans and Advances by Sector 80
A.26 Finance Companies and Merchant Banks: Percentage Distribution of Loans and Advances by Sector 81
A.27 Trust and Mortgage Finance Companies: Summary of Assets and Liabilities 82
A.28 Development Banks: Summary of Assets and Liabilities 83
p - Provisional r - Revised re - Revised Estimates
n.a - Not Available c - Confidential n/a - Not Applicable

TABLES A.1 - A.41 (continued)
A.29 Thrift Institutions: Summary of Assets and Liabilities 84
A.30 Non-Bank Financial Institutions Interest Rates 85
A.31 Money and Capital Market Activity 86
A.32 Selected Interest Rates 87
A.33 (A) Balance of Payments, Standard Presentation 88
A.33 (B.1) Direct Investment: Net Incurrence of Liabilities (By Sector) 89
A.33 (B.2) Direct Investment: Net Incurrence of Liabilities (By Sector) 90
A.33 (C) Direct Investment: Net Incurrence of Liabilities (By Country) 91
A.34 Weighted Average TT Dollar Exchange Rates for Selected Currencies 92
A.35 Trinidad and Tobago - International Reserves 93
A.36 Summary Accounts of the Central Bank 94
95
96
97
TABLE A.1
REAL GDP GROWTH1

BY SECTOR OF ORIGIN, 2015-2019
/ PER CENT /
SECTOR 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019p
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 35.9 -7.3 7.9 -9.6 -3.3

Mining and Quarrying -3.2 -12.9 -0.3 -4.5 -3.1
Manufacturing 2.2 -2.2 -1.8 0.2 -2.9
Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air Conditioning Supply 1.8 -8.1 8.6 1.4 2.5
Water Supply; Sewerage, Waste Management and Remediation 1.5 1.7 -1.5 1.9 2.1
Activities
Construction -2.7 -4.2 -3.8 -0.1 -5.4
Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and 5.4 -6.9 -10.5 -2.0 2.4
Motorcycles
Transportation and Storage -4.5 -17.6 2.0 4.0 -2.3
Accommodation and Food Service Activities -1.5 -2.0 -1.3 -2.2 -0.7
Information and Communication 2.4 -2.1 -1.6 0.1 -0.1
Financial and Insurance Activities 3.4 2.5 4.6 0.0 3.9
Real Estate Activities 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities -14.3 -2.4 3.6 11.1 -4.4
Administrative and Support Service Activities 4.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
Public Administration and Defence; Compulsory Social Security 1.4 2.1 0.6 -1.2 4.3
Education 2.1 -1.1 0.3 -0.2 0.7
Human Health and Social Work Activities 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3
Arts, Entertainment and Recreation 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2
Other Service Activities 0.0 0.8 0.2 0.4 1.2
Activities of Households as Employers; Undifferentiated Goods- and 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2
Services-Producing Activities of Households for Own Use
FISIM2 3.2 1.3 -1.5 2.1 18.8
GDP At Basic Prices 0.9 -5.6 -2.0 -1.1 -0.9
Taxes Less Subsidies on Products 18.4 -5.0 -28.7 42.0 -9.3
GDP At Purchasers Prices/Market Prices 1.5 -5.6 -3.0 0.1 -1.2
SOURCE: Central Statistical Office
1 In 2017, the CSO changed the base year to 2012 and the industry breakdown now conforms to the International Standard Indus-
trial Classification of All Economic Activities, Revision 4 (ISIC. Rev 4).
2 Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured.
TABLE A.2
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT CURRENT MARKET PRICES1

BY SECTOR OF ORIGIN, 2015-2019
/ TT$ Millions /
SECTOR 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019p
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 1,678.1 1,678.6 1,881.4 1,666.4 1,608.3

Mining and Quarrying 21,984.3 14,578.4 18,682.7 21,496.5 20,189.6
Manufacturing 24,523.0 28,130.2 28,121.4 30,842.0 29,086.4
Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air Conditioning Supply 3,740.1 1,501.4 2,632.4 3,445.9 3,144.4
Water Supply; Sewerage, Waste Management and Remediation 2,296.6 2,405.4 2,066.0 2,010.5 1,936.3
Activities
Construction 9,747.8 9,281.5 8,929.7 9,182.7 8,755.9
Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and 37,374.0 34,886.6 33,386.9 32,986.5 33,150.0
Motorcycles
Transportation and Storage 5,259.0 5,388.4 5,573.6 5,873.7 5,786.2
Accommodation and Food Service Activities 2,506.8 2,484.7 2,536.4 2,536.8 2,563.6
Information and Communication 4,052.7 3,920.5 3,720.7 3,633.5 3,691.0
Financial and Insurance Activities 10,048.1 10,046.8 11,815.4 11,855.4 12,291.4
Real Estate Activities 3,084.4 3,129.9 3,185.4 3,232.6 3,298.9
Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities 3,070.4 3,020.6 3,161.2 3,541.3 3,411.2
Administrative and Support Service Activities 4,344.8 4,551.2 4,595.4 4,635.6 4,675.2
Public Administration and Defence; Compulsory Social Security 14,228.2 14,326.2 14,273.2 14,094.9 14,707.6
Education 4,998.6 4,099.6 3,823.5 3,818.8 3,845.0
FISIM2 -3,343.6 -3,429.6 -3,998.3 -4,106.3 -4,368.4
GDP At Basic Prices 151,955.9 142,289.0 146,711.2 153,087.0 150,250.7
Taxes Less Subsidies on Products 7,223.3 7,004.7 5,050.4 7,244.8 6,505.3
GDP At Purchasers Prices/Market Prices 159,179.1 149,293.7 151,761.6 160,331.7 156,756.0
1 In 2017, the CSO changed the base year to 2012 and the industry breakdown now conforms to the International Standard Industrial Clas-
sification of All Economic Activities, Revision 4 (ISIC. Rev 4).
2 Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured.
TABLE A.3
SECTORAL COMPOSITION OF G.D.P.1

AT CURRENT MARKET PRICES, 2015-2019
/ PER CENT /
SECTOR 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019p
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.0

Mining and Quarrying 13.8 9.8 12.3 13.4 12.9
Manufacturing 15.4 18.8 18.5 19.2 18.6
Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air Conditioning Supply 2.3 1.0 1.7 2.1 2.0
Water Supply; Sewerage, Waste Management and Remediation 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2
Activities
Construction 6.1 6.2 5.9 5.7 5.6
Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and 23.5 23.4 22.0 20.6 21.1
Motorcycles
Transportation and Storage 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7
Accommodation and Food Service Activities 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6
Information and Communication 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.4
Financial and Insurance Activities 6.3 6.7 7.8 7.4 7.8
Real Estate Activities 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.1
Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2
Administrative and Support Service Activities 2.7 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0
Public Administration and Defence; Compulsory Social Security 8.9 9.6 9.4 8.8 9.4
Education 3.1 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.5
1 In 2017, the CSO changed the base year to 2012 and the industry breakdown now conforms to the International Standard Indus-
trial Classification of All Economic Activities, Revision 4 (ISIC. Rev 4).
TABLE A.4
MAJOR AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES, 2015-2019
PRODUCT 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
VEGETABLES (000 kgs)

Tomato 2,698 2,223 2,645 1,678 1,700
Cabbage 594 434 435 755 365
Cucumber 1,173 1,102 804 741 973
Dasheen 1,917 2,396 3,224 2,511 2,097
Rice 2,721 1,823 1,619 585 536
Pigeon Peas 1,687 858 2,043 2,601 1,223
Pumpkin 3,279 3,032 1,884 4,533 2,410
Melongene 906 1,713 913 488 1,467
MEAT SUPPLY (000 kgs)

Beef and Veal
Production 287 285 226 97 159
Imports n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Pork
Production 1,778 1,994 2,178 2,278 2,036
Mutton
Production 77 60 156 49 33*
Broilers (000 birds): Production 32,161 31,708 33,267 31,889 33,651
Table Eggs (000 doz): Production 4,800 5,384 6,910 7,496 7,924
Milk (000 litres): Production 3,731 2,324 2,428 3,456 2,934
COCOA (000 kgs)

Production 169* n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Exports n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Local Sales n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
COFFEE (000 kgs)

Production 0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Local Sales n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
CITRUS (000 kgs)

Production n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
* Data for the period January to September 2019.

TABLE A.5
PRODUCTION AND UTILISATION OF CRUDE OIL AND
RELATED PRODUCTS AND PETROCHEMICALS, 2016-2020
COMMODITY GROUP 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
CRUDE OIL
Exploration (meters)
Depth Drilled 108,886 121,396 110,182 91,883 55,826
Production (000 barrels)
Crude Oil and Condensates 26,164 26,216 23,176 21,481 20,669
Of which: Condensates 4,171 4,604 3,338 3,279 3,086
Daily Average (b/d) 71,504 71,853 63,533 58,863 56,481
Imports (000 barrels)
Crude Oil Imports 37,014 32,240 22,886 0 0
Of which: u.p.a. 0 0 0 0 0
Refining (000 barrels)1
Refinery Throughput 54,257 47,720 36,000 0 0
Refinery Output 52,717 46,763 35,631 0 0
Capacity Utilisation (%) 88 78 59 n/a n/a
Exports (000 barrels)
Crude Oil Exports 10,292 9,972 8,047 21,972 20,316
Petroleum Products 44,207 36,958 29,039 6,727 6,414
Natural Gas (Mn cubic feet/day)
Production 3,327 3,366 3,585 3,588 3,044
Utilisation2 3,104 3,172 3,378 3,439 2,925
Of which: Petrochemicals 1,022 1,048 1,061 1,124 965
Electricity Generation 271 252 242 254 237
LNG 1,650 1,722 1,921 1,972 1,645
Natural Gas Liquids (000 barrels)
Production 9,214 9,806 8,695 8,530 7,165
Exports 7,996 8,541 7,668 8,119 6,453
Local Sales 1,085 1,152 1,308 876 866
Stock Change 133 113 -280 -465 -154
Fertilisers (000 tonnes)
Production 5,522 5,595 5,431 6,104 5,799
Exports 5,228 5,141 4,924 5,206 4,640
Local Sales 6 5 5 4 2
Stock Change 289 449 501 894 1,157
Methanol (000 tonnes)
Production 4,655 4,975 5,081 5,672 4,259
Exports 4,637 4,962 5,010 5,722 4,358
Local Sales 7 7 7 7 10
Stock Change 11 7 64 -58 -109
SOURCES: Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries and Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago
1 Petrotrin's Refinery was closed in November 2018. Therefore, refinery capacity (estimated at 168,000 barrels per
day prior to its closure) and capacity utilisation are not applicable from 2019.
2 Utilisation refers to gas sales and does not include natural gas used in own consumption.
TABLE A.6
PRODUCTION OF IRON AND STEEL PRODUCTS AND CEMENT, 2016-2020
PRODUCT 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
STEEL PRODUCTS (000 TONNES)

(i) Direct Reduced Iron
Production 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Exports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Local Sales 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Own Consumption 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
(ii) Billets
Production 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Exports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Local Sales 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
(iii) Wire Rods
Production 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Exports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Local Sales 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
CEMENT (000 TONNES)

Production 721.2 670.0 662.6 678.3 631.9
Local Sales 526.2 497.3 483.8 486.7 472.7
Exports 192.7 219.2 270.9 309.5 303.9
SOURCE: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago
TABLE A.7
PRICES OF SELECTED EXPORT COMMODITIES, 2016-2020
SECTOR 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Crude Oil (WTI1; US$/bbl2) 43.2 50.9 64.8 57.0 39.3
Crude Oil (Brent; US$/bbl2) 44.6 54.9 71.6 64.2 42.5
Natural Gas (Henry Hub; US$/mmbtu3) 2.5 3.0 3.2 2.6 2.0
Ammonia (FOB Caribbean; US$/tonne) 235.1 236.6 268.3 206.1 187.6
Urea (FOB Caribbean; US$/tonne) 206.8 214.9 245.4 249.1 219.3
Methanol (FOB Rotterdam; US$/tonne) 272.1 399.1 474.2 363.0 294.8
Billets (FOB Latin America; US$/tonne) 323.7 430.9 500.0 426.7 390.5
Wire Rods (FOB Latin America; US$/tonne) 373.0 485.9 579.8 532.9 498.1
SOURCE: Bloomberg; Green Markets; Fertiliser Week; European Chemical News; Monthly Methanol Newsletter
(TECNON); Metal Bulletin; Platts
All prices are monthly averages of published quotations and not necessarily realised prices.
1 West Texas Intermediate.
2 US dollars per barrel.
3 US dollars per million British thermal units.
TABLE A.8
INDEX OF DOMESTIC PRODUCTION, 2016-2020

/ 1995=100 /
PRODUCT WEIGHT 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Food Processing 58 1,072.6 1,230.1 1,445.2 1,871.9 2,396.4

Drink and Tobacco 63 1,031.0 929.6 1,121.4 1,270.9 1,019.8
Textiles, Garments and Footwear 6 1,294.3 1,320.7 1,333.8 1,360.3 1,378.5
Printing, Publishing and Paper Converters 27 302.1 276.2 229.7 205.9 183.1
Wood and Related Products 7 839.0 735.0 685.0 669.9 670.9
Chemicals and Non-Metallic Minerals 43 291.8 307.6 320.3 331.2 338.9
Assembly-Type and Related Industries 61 259.8 244.8 231.9 258.6 320.4
Miscellaneous Manufacturing Industries 10 186.9 178.8 175.3 173.2 169.7
Electricity 40 90.3 80.2 71.4 70.5 67.6
Water 6 151.6 118.8 112.7 108.8 112.8
All Industry Index

(Excluding Petrochem, Oil and Natural Gas,
Explor., Product. and Refining) 320 574.5 576.3 646.3 757.7 814.3
Explor., and Product. of Oil, Natural Gas, etc. 445 116.7 117.2 112.6 108.1 98.9
Petrochemicals 182 219.8 223.6 219.7 225.4 200.5
Oil and Natural Gas Refining1 53 939.2 883.3 731.9 206.4 173.0
All Industry Index

(Including Petrochem, Oil and Natural Gas, 1,000 325.7 324.2 335.8 335.6 344.4
Explor., Product. and Refining)
1 From 2019, the index for natural gas refining is reported as oil refining fell to zero following the closure of Petrotrin's
Refinery in November 2018.
TABLE A.9
ANNUAL CHANGES IN THE INDICES OF PRODUCTION AND
HOURS WORKED (ALL EMPLOYEES), 2018-20201
/ PER CENT /
DOMESTIC PRODUCTION INDEX OF HOURS WORKED

(1995=100) (1995=100)
INDUSTRY
2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Food Processing 17.5 29.5 28.0 0.4 1.3 2.0

Drink and Tobacco 20.6 13.3 -19.8 -2.3 -16.2 -15.8
Textiles, Garments and Footwear 1.0 2.0 1.3 -0.5 0.5 0.6
Printing, Publishing and Paper Converters -16.8 -10.4 -11.1 1.4 0.8 2.5
Wood and Related Products -6.8 -2.2 0.2 4.4 5.3 -3.1
Chemicals and Non-Metallic Minerals 4.2 3.4 2.3 -4.0 -18.1 -0.5
Assembly-Type and Related Industries -5.2 11.5 23.9 -2.0 0.8 -9.2
Miscellaneous Manufacturing Industries -2.0 -1.2 -2.0 -8.8 -6.5 -0.7
Electricity -10.9 -1.4 -4.0 -9.0 -9.3 0.1
Water -5.2 -3.5 3.7 -0.5 -1.8 -2.2
All Industry Index
(Excluding Petrochem, Oil and Natural Gas, 12.2 17.2 7.5 -1.2 -4.2 -2.3
Explor., and Product. of Oil, Natural Gas, etc. -3.9 -4.0 -8.5 -5.3 -5.0 -4.7
Petrochemicals -1.7 2.6 -11.1 -2.8 -4.6 -4.9
Oil and Natural Gas Refining 2
-17.1 -1.6 -16.2 -16.7 0.0 0.0
All Industry Index

(Including Petrochem, Oil and Natural Gas, 3.6 -0.1 2.6 -5.3 -25.0 -2.5
1 Percentage changes over the corresponding period.

2 From 2019, the index for natural gas refining is reported as oil refining fell to zero following the closure of Petrotrin's Refinery in November
2018.
TABLE A.10
ANNUAL CHANGES IN THE INDICES OF AVERAGE
WEEKLY EARNINGS AND EMPLOYMENT
(ALL EMPLOYEES), 2018-20201
/ PER CENT /
AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS EMPLOYMENT

(1995=100) (1995=100)
INDUSTRY
2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Food Processing -1.3 -1.1 2.2 0.2 2.4 0.8

Drink and Tobacco 3.7 9.3 -1.4 -0.2 -5.8 -6.0
Textiles, Garments and Footwear -4.1 -5.0 -3.6 -1.4 -0.5 0.0
Printing, Publishing and Paper Converters 5.3 7.1 10.9 -2.2 -1.8 -1.7
Wood and Related Products 3.2 -17.7 -17.0 5.6 8.1 5.9
Chemicals and Non-Metallic Minerals 0.7 3.7 3.3 0.0 -1.8 -4.4
Assembly-Type and Related Industries 13.0 8.3 5.7 0.1 -0.8 -8.6
Miscellaneous Manufacturing Industries 4.7 -1.8 3.1 -7.2 -6.0 -4.1
Electricity -5.7 -4.9 3.8 -1.5 -7.3 -1.6
Water 0.7 2.7 4.7 1.9 -1.8 -1.9
All Industry Index
(Including Petrochem, Oil and Natural Gas, 0.7 1.3 3.5 -0.1 -0.9 -2.3
Explor., Product. and Refining, etc)
Explor., and Product. of Oil, Natural Gas, etc. -8.5 -8.9 -9.2 2.8 3.2 3.6
Petrochemicals 7.0 1.5 5.8 -0.8 -1.9 -2.8
Oil and Natural Gas Refining2 28.6 0.0 0.0 -4.3 0.0 0.0
All Industry Index

(Including Petrochem, Oil and Natural Gas, 9.4 -36.6 3.0 -0.7 -18.5 -1.8

2 From 2019, the index for natural gas refining is reported as oil refining fell to zero following the closure of Petrotrin's Refinery in
November 2018.
TABLE A.11
ANNUAL CHANGES IN THE INDICES OF REAL EARNINGS AND
OUTPUT PER MAN HOUR WORKED (ALL EMPLOYEES), 2018-20201
/ PER CENT /
INDEX OF OUTPUT
REAL EARNINGS
PER MAN HOUR WORKED
(1995=100)
INDUSTRY (1995=100)
2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Food Processing -2.3 -2.0 1.5 16.6 28.1 25.3

Drink and Tobacco 2.6 8.2 -2.0 23.5 35.3 -4.9
Textiles, Garments and Footwear -5.0 -5.9 -4.2 1.5 1.5 0.8
Printing, Publishing and Paper Converters 4.2 6.0 10.3 -17.9 -11.1 -13.2
Wood and Related Products 2.2 -18.6 -17.5 -10.7 -7.1 3.1
Chemical and Non-Metallic Minerals -0.3 2.7 2.7 8.8 25.8 9.8
Assembly-Type and Related Industries 11.9 7.2 5.1 -3.4 10.9 4.4
Miscellaneous Manufacturing Industries 3.7 -2.8 2.5 7.5 5.6 -1.3
Electricity -6.6 -5.8 3.2 -3.2 7.9 -4.2
Water -0.3 1.7 4.1 -4.6 -1.7 6.1
All Industry Index

(Excluding Petrochem, Oil and Natural Gas, -0.3 0.3 2.9 13.4 22.4 8.5
Explor., and Product. of Oil, Natural Gas, etc. -9.5 -9.8 -9.7 1.2 1.1 -4.1
Petrochemicals 5.9 0.4 5.2 1.1 7.5 -6.5
Oil and Natural Gas Refining 2
27.2 n.a. n.a. -5.1 -1.6 -16.1
All Industry Index

(Including Petrochem, Oil and Natural Gas, 8.3 -37.2 2.4 9.4 3.4 4.1

2 From 2019, the index for natural gas refining is reported as oil refining fell to zero following the closure of Petrotrin's Refinery in
November 2018.
TABLE A.12
INDEX OF RETAIL PRICES FOR MAJOR EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES, 2016-2020
/ JANUARY 2015=100 /
2020
SECTION WEIGHTS 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
I II III IV
Inflation Rate (%)1
All Sections 1,000 3.1 1.9 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.8
Food 173 7.5 2.9 1.1 0.6 2.8 0.9 2.8 2.8 4.7
Core 2
827 2.1 1.6 1.0 1.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Retail Price Index

All Sections 1,000 104.4 106.4 107.4 108.5 109.2 108.9 109.0 109.2 109.5
Food 173 109.9 113.1 114.4 115.0 118.2 116.8 117.3 118.4 120.4
Core 827 103.2 104.9 106.0 107.2 107.3 107.3 107.2 107.3 107.3
Per cent Contribution To Change In Index

Food 173 42.4 28.3 20.4 10.3 86.0 45.0 82.7 97.0 99.0
Core 827 57.6 71.7 79.6 89.7 14.0 55.0 17.3 3.0 1.0
1 Annual figures represent the percentage change over the average for the previous year; quarterly figures represent the percentage change from
the corresponding quarter of the previous year.
2 The component of measured inflation that has no medium to long term-run impact on real output in Trinidad and Tobago. This measure excludes
food prices.
TABLE A.13
INDEX OF PRODUCERS’ PRICES, 2016-2020
/ OCT. 1978=100 /
SECTION WEIGHTS 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Food Processing 191 716.5 721.2 725.1 726.9 727.5

0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1
Drink and Tobacco 121 1,467.6 1,567.3 1,575.3 1,600.8 1,695.0
3.2 6.8 0.5 1.6 5.9
Textiles, Garments and Footwear 101 303.5 303.5 303.5 303.5 303.5
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Printing, Publishing and Paper Converters 93 390.3 390.8 400.0 401.7 399.3
-0.3 0.1 2.3 0.4 -0.6
Wood and Related Products 89 348.1 348.3 348.3 348.3 348.3
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chemicals and Non-Metallic Minerals 148 630.1 617.4 583.3 582.2 577.1
0.9 -2.0 -5.5 -0.2 -0.9
Assembly-Type and Related Industries 257 345.0 346.1 348.2 348.5 349.0
0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.2
All Industry 1,000 594.3 605.7 603.8 607.3 617.9
1.2 1.9 -0.3 0.6 1.8

TABLE A.14
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FISCAL OPERATIONS, 2016-20201
/ TT$ Millions /
EXPENDITURE 2016 2017 2018 2019r 2020re
Current Revenue 41,158.9 34,870.1 42,331.9 45,768.8 33,346.3

Current Expenditure2 48,546.4 46,263.5 45,374.4 46,986.8 46,754.2
Current Account Surplus(+)/Deficit(-) -7,387.6 -11,393.4 -3,042.5 -1,218.0 -13,407.9
Capital Revenue 3,813.7 1,310.5 837.8 979.8 713.4
Capital Expenditure and Net lending3 4,398.3 3,448.5 3,492.1 3,790.7 4,077.5
Overall Surplus(+)/Deficit(-) -7,972.1 -13,531.4 -5,696.8 -4,028.9 -16,772.0
Total Financing (net) 7,972.1 13,531.4 5,696.8 4,028.9 16,772.0
External Financing (Net) 8,954.0 3,266.7 1,239.4 1,094.0 10,834.3

Net External Borrowing 6,455.6 1,554.5 1,239.4 1,094.0 4,199.3
Disbursements 6,982.7 2,099.8 1,935.3 1,951.0 7,688.9
Repayments 527.1 545.3 695.9 857.0 3,489.6
Divestment Proceeds 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Transfers from HSF (Withdrawals) 2,498.4 1,712.2 0.0 0.0 6,635.0
Domestic Financing (Net) -981.9 10,264.7 4,457.4 2,934.9 5,937.7

Debt Management Treasury Bills (Net) 0.0 1,105.0 0.0 1,435.0 2,796.0
Bonds(Net) 4,016.0 3,165.6 1,165.9 3,240.9 2,966.5
Disbursements 6,623.2 8,191.8 6,349.1 6,405.5 8,796.7
Repayments 2,607.2 5,026.2 5,183.2 3,164.6 5,830.2
Divestment Proceeds 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Uncashed Balances (Net)4 -4,997.9 5,994.1 3,291.5 -1,741.0 175.2
Memo Items:
Primary Balance5 -4,209.7 -9,063.0 -910.0 1,016.6 -11,783.1
Surplus(+)/Deficit(-) as a Percentage
of GDP (current market prices)
Current Account Surplus(+)/Deficit(-) -4.9 -7.5 -1.9 -0.8 -8.9
Overall Surplus(+)/Deficit(-) -5.3 -9.0 -3.6 -2.6 -11.2
Primary Surplus(+)/Deficit(-) -2.8 -6.0 -0.6 0.6 -7.9
SOURCES: Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago

1 Refers to accounts of Consolidated Fund, Unemployment Fund, Road Improvement Fund and the Infrastructure Develop-
ment Fund. Data is in fiscal years (October 1st - September 30th).
2 Includes an adjustment for transfers to the Heritage and Stabilisation Fund and funds expended from the Infrastructure De-
velopment Fund.
3 Includes an adjustment for Repayment of Past Lending in the years prior to 2016.
4 Includes errors and ommissions, advances from the Central Bank and drawdowns from the treasury deposit accounts. Nega-
tive numbers represent an increase in deposits at the Central Bank.
5 The primary balance, also known as the non-interest balance, is equal to the overall balance exclusive of interest payments.
TABLE A.15
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE, 2016-20201

/ TT$ Millions /
EXPENDITURE 2016 2017 2018 2019r 2020re

A. Oil Sector 3,805.5 4,268.6 6,276.0 11,577.4 5,979.6
Corporation2 2,144.2 2,477.2 3,126.2 5,717.8 2,146.9
Withholding Tax 742.5 512.7 495.7 927.3 735.0
Royalties 520.2 938.9 2,288.2 4,091.1 2,812.6
Oil Impost 136.2 139.5 114.3 100.1 69.0
Excise Duties 131.9 101.7 98.2 23.2 6.1
B. Non Oil Sector 37,353.4 30,601.5 36,055.9 34,191.4 27,366.7

Taxes on Income 15,759.0 15,209.3 17,482.0 17,902.3 13,103.9
Companies 7,003.1 6,919.2 8,858.4 8,693.7 5,370.0
Individuals 7,186.5 6,303.3 6,598.7 6,915.2 6,030.0
Health Surcharge 225.8 218.0 183.6 190.6 168.0
Other3 1,343.6 1,768.8 1,841.4 2,102.8 1,535.9
Taxes on Property 3.2 3.0 3.9 46.9 46.9
Lands and Buildings Taxes 3.2 3.0 3.9 46.9 46.9
Taxes on Goods and Services 8,913.0 6,830.2 9,084.9 7,662.9 8,276.2
Purchase Tax 0.1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Excise Duties 579.5 613.8 660.9 627.6 635.9
Motor Vehicles 569.0 415.1 333.7 291.0 214.1
Value Added Tax 7,004.7 5,050.4 7,244.8 5,847.5 6,700.0
Other 759.7 749.9 845.5 896.8 726.2
Taxes on International Trade 3,016.3 2,684.8 2,732.5 2,672.3 2,280.2
Import Duties 3,016.0 2,683.8 2,732.1 2,671.9 2,279.8
Other 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.4
Non-Tax Revenue 9,661.8 5,874.2 6,752.5 5,904.3 3,704.8
National Lottery 177.8 335.9 213.6 272.2 115.0
Interest 41.4 34.0 28.5 25.3 7.4
Central Bank 809.0 714.0 1,046.6 1,471.9 1,884.0
Other 8,633.6 4,790.3 5,463.8 4,134.9 1,698.4
TOTAL CURRENT REVENUE 41,158.9 34,870.1 42,331.8 45,768.8 33,346.3
Capital Revenue 3,813.7 1,310.5 837.8 979.8 713.4
TOTAL REVENUE 44,972.6 36,180.6 43,169.6 46,748.6 34,059.7
SOURCES: Ministry of Finance and Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago
1 Refers to accounts of Consolidated Fund, Unemployment Fund, Road Improvement Fund and the Infrastructure Develop-
ment Fund. Data is in fiscal years (October 1st - September 30th).
2 Includes receipts from Supplemental Petroleum Tax (SPT), Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT), signature bonuses, surplus sale of petro-
leum products, extraordinary revenue from oil and gas companies and for the award of Production Sharing Contracts (PSC).
3 Includes witholding tax from the non-oil sector, insurance surrender tax, business levy, income tax surcharge and Green Fund
rceipts.
TABLE A.16
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE, 2016-20201

/ TT$ Millions /
EXPENDITURE 2016 2017 2018 2019r 2020re
Current Expenditure 48,546.4 46,263.5 45,374.4 46,986.8 46,754.2

Wages and Salaries 9,601.9 9,937.8 9,094.4 9,137.2 8,983.8
Goods and Services 7,326.1 5,827.2 6,102.1 6,426.4 5,459.6
Interest 3,762.4 4,468.4 4,786.8 5,045.5 4,988.9
External 562.6 894.4 991.2 1,126.5 1,156.9
Domestic 3,199.8 3,574.0 3,795.6 3,919.0 3,832.0
Transfers and Subsidies 27,856.1 26,030.1 25,391.1 26,377.7 27,321.9
Of which:
Statutory Boards and State Enterprises 9,356.5 8,769.0 8,699.1 9,465.8 8,551.4
Households 10,169.8 9,026.3 8,741.0 9,396.9 10,246.4
Capital Expenditure and Net-Lending2 4,398.3 3,448.5 3,492.1 3,790.7 4,077.5
TOTAL EXPENDITURE 52,944.7 49,712.0 48,866.5 50,777.5 50,831.7

(in % of GDP at current market prices) 34.9 32.9 30.9 32.2 33.9
Memo Items (% of Expenditure):

Current Expenditure 91.7 93.1 92.9 92.5 92.0
Capital Expenditure and Net-Lending 8.3 6.9 7.1 7.5 8.0
1 Refers to accounts of Consolidated Fund, Unemployment Fund, Road Improvement Fund and the Infrastructure Devel-
opment Fund. Data is in fiscal years (October 1st - September 30th).
2 See footnote 3 on Table A.14.
TABLE A.17 (A)
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT EXTERNAL DEBT, 2016-20201

/ US$ Millions /
SECTOR 2016 2017 2018 2019r 2020p

CENTRAL GOVERNMENT
Receipts 1,056.4 401.7 263.2 365.4 1,269.1
Amortisation 78.5 80.5 103.1 125.3 505.6
Interest 100.1 134.5 147.4 167.1 167.8
Balance Outstanding (end of period) 3,214.4 3,535.8 3,695.8 3,939.4 4,707.3
Balance Outstanding/GDP (%) 14.1 15.6 15.6 16.7 21.1
External Debt Service/Exports (%) 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.9 9.7
1 Data are in Fiscal Years (October 1st -September 30th).
TABLE A.17 (B)
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT INTERNAL DEBT, 2016-20201

/ TT$ Millions /
SECTOR 2016 2017 2018 2019r 2020p
BONDS & NOTES

Issue 4,732.0 8,251.1 6,275.0 6,325.4 11,805.5
Redemption 1,940.4 3,674.3 4,424.4 2,331.3 4,103.2
Outstanding 30,888.6 35,487.1 37,507.6 41,253.0 48,489.0
CLICO AND HCU ZERO-COUPON BONDS
Issue 11.8 3.9 1.7 0.3 0.0
Redemption2 619.8 528.2 503.2 507.0 491.4
Outstanding 3,793.9 3,269.5 2,767.9 2,261.3 1,769.9
BOLTS AND LEASES
Issue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Redemption 57.3 27.0 28.7 25.2 26.8
Outstanding 186.3 159.3 130.6 105.4 78.6
OTHER3
Issue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Redemption 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Outstanding 16.9 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7
DEBT MANAGEMENT BILLS
Issue 2,550.0 4,110.0 3,875.0 4,140.0 6,762.0
Redemption 2,550.0 3,005.0 3,875.0 2,705.0 3,966.0
Outstanding 800.0 1,905.0 1,905.0 3,340.0 6,136.0
Total Internal Debt Outstanding 35,685.7 40,837.4 42,327.8 46,976.4 56,490.2
Internal Debt Outstanding/GDP (%) 23.5 27.0 26.8 29.8 37.7
Internal Debt Service/Revenues (%) 14.5 20.2 15.4 9.9 21.0
1 Data is in Fiscal Years (October 1st -September 30th) and excludes all securities issued for sterilisation purposes (OMO
Bills, Treasury notes, Treasury Bonds and other liquidity absorption bonds).
2 Includes the exchange of bonds for shares in the CLICO Investment Fund (CIF).
3 Comprises tax-free saving bonds, central bank fixed interest rate bonds and public sector emolument bonds.
TABLE A.18 (A)

COMMERCIAL BANKS: SELECTED DATA, 2016-2020
/ TT$ Millions /
END OF PERIOD
ITEM
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020p
A. OUTSTANDING
1. Aggregate Deposits (adj.) 104,655.9 102,636.6 105,901.1 108,916.5 116,724.9
Demand Deposits (adj.)1 37,537.2 35,908.7 37,035.6 38,254.4 44,786.6
Time Deposits (adj.)2 10,622.2 10,163.5 10,231.1 11,470.9 10,341.6
Savings Deposits (adj.)3 32,630.2 32,578.3 34,218.0 34,967.6 36,783.6
Foreign Currency Deposits (adj.)4 23,866.3 23,986.1 24,416.5 24,223.6 24,813.1
2. Gross Bank Credit5 62,489.3 64,974.0 67,159.9 71,151.3 69,973.2
Of which:
Business Purposes 24,168.2 25,151.0 25,820.1r 25,739.1 25,244.2
Corporate 22,547.1 23,497.3 23,990.7r 23,992.7 23,560.8
Non-Corporate 1,621.0 1,653.7 1,829.4 1,746.3 1,683.4
3. Investments 36,020.2 33,337.5 34,450.7 31,112.7 36,365.4
Government Securities 19,819.2 17,706.9 18,446.6 14,491.0 19,364.3
Other Investments6 16,201.0 15,630.6 16,004.1 16,621.7 17,001.1
Of which:
Interest-bearing Special Deposit Facility7 1,500.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
B. ANNUAL CHANGE
1. Aggregate Deposits (adj.) 4,185.4 -2,019.3 3,264.5 3,015.4 7,808.4
Demand Deposits (adj.) 933.0 -1,628.5 1,126.9 1,218.8 6,532.2
Time Deposits (adj.) 892.6 -458.7 67.5 1,239.8 -1,129.3
Savings Deposits (adj.) 743.3 -51.9 1,639.7 749.7 1,815.9
Foreign Currency Deposits (adj.) 1,616.6 119.8 430.4 -193.0 589.5
2. Gross Bank Credit 1,399.7 2,484.7 2,186.0 3,991.4 -1,178.1
Of which:
Business Purposes 669.8 982.8 669.1r -81.1 -494.9
Corporate 534.3 950.2 493.4r 2.0 -431.9
Non-Corporate 135.5 32.6 175.7 -83.0 -62.9
3. Investments 3,227.3 -2,682.7 1,113.2 -3,338.0 5,252.7
Government Securities 4,988.3 -2,112.4 739.7 -3,955.6 4,873.3
Other Investments -1,761.0 -570.3 373.5 617.7 379.4
Of which:
Interest-Bearing Special Deposit Facility -1,000.0 -1,500.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1 Total demand deposits minus non-residents’ and Central Government’s demand deposits, cash items in process of col-
lection on other banks, and branch clearings, plus cashiers and branch clearings.
2 Total time deposits minus Central Government’s deposits and deposits of non-residents.
3 Total savings deposits minus Central Government’s deposits and deposits of non-residents.
4 Total demand, savings and time deposits in foreign currency minus those of non-residents.
5 Total loans excluding loans to non-residents and central government.
6 Interest-bearing deposits at the Central Bank, other local and foreign securities, and equity in subsidiaries and affiliates.
7 Deposits were placed by the commercial banks between 2005 and 2012 including TT $1 billion in December 2005,
TT $500 million placed in June 2006, TT $2.0 billion placed in November 2009, TT $1.0 billion placed in November
2010 and TT $1.5 billion placed in March 2012. Two special deposit facilities for TT $2.0 billion and TT $1.5 billion
and one for TT $1.0 billion were allowed to mature in 2015 and 2016, respectively.
TABLE A.18 (B)

SUMMARY ACCOUNTS OF THE MONETARY SYSTEM, 2016-2020
/ TT$ Millions /
END OF PERIOD
ITEM
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Net Foreign Assets 78,948 71,792 66,647 61,639 66,256
Monetary Authorities 60,467 53,004 47,816 43,422 45,440
Commercial Banks 18,480 18,787 18,832 18,217 20,816
Net Domestic Assets 31,290 38,267 43,971 48,535 52,442
Net Claims on Public Sector -1,454r 1,960r 4,721r 8,173r 13,959
Central Government (net) -2,073r 799r 2,619r 8,767r 16,025
Treasury Bills 11,617 9,294 11,298 7,373 9,680
Other Government Securities 11,512 8,611 7,347 7,281 7,662
Other Credit (net) -24,568r -16,705r -14,683r -4,660r -188
Local Government (net) -1,084 -1,308 -617 -550 -466
Statutory Bodies (net) -1,951 -1,401 -2,363 -3,166 -4,089
Public Enterprises (net) 3,654 3,870 5,083 3,123 2,488
Official Capital and Surplus -11,471 -9,184 -7,823 -7,456 -8,668
Credit to Other Financial Institutions (net) -10,154 -10,219 -10,880 -11,480 -12,280
Credit to Private Sector 53,331 56,047 58,326 60,938 60,305
Interbank Float 568 923 597 3,523 4,961
Other Assets (net) 470r -1,259r -970r -5,162r -5,834
Liabilities to Private Sector (M3) 110,238 110,059 110,618 110,174 118,698
Money and Quasi-Money 90,654 90,074 92,094 90,477 97,341
Money 36,727 37,280 37,870 36,714 41,964
Currency in Circulation 7,847 8,104 7,941 4,783 6,565
Demand Deposits 28,881 29,176 29,929 31,931 35,399
Quasi-Money 53,927 52,795 54,223 53,763 55,377
Time Deposits 9,079 8,817 7,743 8,211 7,828
Savings Deposits 44,847 43,977 46,480 45,552 47,549
Securitised Instruments 813 788 312 177 600
Private Capital and Surplus 18,771 19,197 18,212 19,520 20,756
Changes as a per cent of beginning-of-period M3
Net Foreign Assets 1.0 -6.5 -4.7 -4.5 4.2
Net Domestic Assets 2.5 6.3 5.2 4.1 3.5
Net Claims on Public Sector 5.0 3.1 2.5 3.1 5.3
Of which: Central Government 5.6 2.6 1.7 5.6 6.6
Credit to Private Sector 2.0 2.5 2.1 2.4 -0.6
Other Assets (net) -0.2 -1.6 0.3 -3.8 -0.6
Liabilities to private sector (M3) 3.4 -0.2 0.5 -0.4 7.7
Memorandum items:
Net Domestic Assets 31,290 38,267 43,971 48,535 52,442
Net Claims on Public Sector -1,454r 1,960r 4,721r 8,173r 13,959
Central Government -2,073r 799r 2,619r 8,767r 16,025
Credit to the Private Sector 53,331 56,047 58,326 60,305r 60,305
(12-month increase in per cent) M3 Velocity 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3

TABLE A.19
LIQUIDITY POSITION OF COMMERCIAL BANKS, 2019-2020
/ TT$ Millions /
2019 2020
ITEM
I II III IV I II III IVp
Legal Reserves Position

Required Reserves1 13,698.7r 13,759.7r 13,749.4r 14,391.5r 12,312.1 12,606.6 12,947.0 13,303.4
Cash Reserves 15,760.1r 17,614.7r 18,561.6r 20,862.0r 17,508.6 22,353.3 27,597.4 23,448.4
Excess (+) or Shortage (-)2
2,061.4r 3,855.1r 4,812.2r 6,470.6r 5,196.5 9,746.7 14,650.4 10,145.0
Average Excess(+) or Shortage( -) 3
2,619.5 3,717.3 4,458.9 5,226.4 4,262.1 8,023.9 11,558.5 13,598.1
Liquid Assets
Total Deposits at Central Bank 15,760.1r 17,614.7r 18,561.6r 20,862.0r 17,508.6 22,353.3 27,597.4 23,448.4
Local Cash in Hand 1,171.6 1,073.8 1,100.3 3,990.1r 1,632.5 1,210.2 1,266.5 1,662.0
Treasury Bills 366.4 1,338.2 1,858.1 2,486.4 3,834.2 4,221.2 4,542.8 4,489.5
Total Liquid Assets 17,298.1r 20,026.7r 21,520.0r 27,338.5r 22,975.3 27,784.7 33,406.7 29,599.9
Total Deposit Liabilities (adj.) 80,580.7 80,939.2 80,878.8 84,655.6 87,943.4 90,047.3 92,478.8 95,024.2
As at Percentage of Total Deposit Liabilities (Adj.)
Legal Reserves Position

Required Reserves 17.0r 17.0r 17.0r 17.0r 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0
Actual Reserves 19.6 r
21.8 r
22.9 r
24.6 r
19.9 24.8 29.8 24.7
Cash Reserves 19.6r 21.8r 22.9r 24.6r 19.9 24.8 29.8 24.7
Excess (+) or Shortage (-) 2.6
r
4.8
r
5.9 r
7.6
r
5.9 10.8 15.8 10.7
Average Excess(+) or Shortage(-) 3.3 4.6 5.5 6.2 4.8 8.9 12.5 14.3
Liquid Assets
Total Deposits at Central Bank 19.6r 21.8r 22.9r 24.6r 19.9 24.8 29.8 24.7
Local Cash in Hand 1.5 1.3 1.4 4.7
r
1.9 1.3 1.4 1.7
Treasury Bills 0.5 1.7 2.3 2.9 4.4 4.7 4.9 4.7
TOTAL LIQUID ASSETS 21.5r 24.7r 26.6r 32.3r 26.1 30.9 36.1 31.1
1 Required reserves comprise the statutory cash reserves requirement which was reduced from 17 per cent to 14 per cent on March 17, 2020. A
secondary reserve requirement of 2 per cent which was introduced, on a temporary basis, on October 4, 2006 was suspended effective August 2,
2018.
2 Represents the excess/shortage as at the end of the quarter.
3 Represents the excess/shortage as an average through the quarter.
TABLE A.20
COMMERCIAL BANKS:
DISTRIBUTION OF LOANS AND ADVANCES BY SECTOR, 2016-2020
/ TT$ Millions /
END OF PERIOD
SECTOR
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020p
Central and Local Government 215.8 376.6 632.2 556.5 610.0

Agriculture 83.1 151.1 201.2 200.5 160.6
Petroleum 2,362.5 2,132.6 3,578.9 3,726.5 3,116.3
Manufacturing 4,255.9 3,911.2 3,495.2 3,857.7 3,876.8
Construction 4,185.5r 3,103.0r 2,836.6r 1,882.5r 2,595.5
Distributive Trades 3,684.9 3,843.5 3,876.6 4,068.3 3,838.8
Hotels and Guest Houses 815.2 1,033.0 904.6 1,649.5 1,668.5
Transport, Storage and Communication 1,693.8 1,821.0 2,135.0 1,578.8 1,311.2
Finance, Insurance and Real Estate 8,765.1r 10,223.5r 10,870.5r 12,091.5r 11,801.9
Education, Cultural and Community Services 118.0 126.9 227.9 317.6 312.5
Personal Services 569.2 652.1 912.7 1,351.1 1,227.8
Electricity and Water 2,971.0 3,111.0 1,439.3 1,491.6 1,264.9
Consumers 16,488.2 17,318.6 18,349.0 19,388.1 18,830.0
TOTAL (Excluding Real Estate Mortgage Loans) 46,208.3 47,804.1 49,459.8 52,160.2 50,614.8
Real Estate Mortgage Loans and Lease Financing 18,215.4 19,681.7 21,019.0 23,683.0 24,699.9
TOTAL LOANS 64,423.7 67,485.8 70,478.8 75,843.2 75,314.7

TABLE A.21
COMMERCIAL BANKS:
PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF LOANS AND ADVANCES BY SECTOR, 2016-20201
/ PER CENT /
END OF PERIOD
SECTOR
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020p
Central Government 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.8

Agriculture 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2
Petroleum 3.7 3.2 5.1 4.9 4.1
Manufacturing 6.6 5.8 5.0 5.1 5.1
Construction 6.5r 4.6r 4.0r 2.5r 3.4
Distributive Trades 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.1
Hotels and Guest Houses 1.3 1.5 1.3 2.2 2.2
Transport, Storage and Communication 2.6 2.7 3.0 2.1 1.7
Finance, Insurance and Real Estate 13.6r 15.1r 15.4r 15.9r 15.7
Personal Services 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.8 1.6
Electricity and Water 4.6 4.6 2.0 2.0 1.7
Consumers 25.6 25.7 26.0 25.6 25.0
TOTAL (Excluding Real Estate Mortgage Loans) 71.7 70.8 70.2 68.8 67.2
Real Estate Mortgage Loans and Lease Financing 28.3 29.2 29.8 31.2 32.8
TOTAL LOANS 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
SOURCE: Table A.20
1 Figures may not sum to 100 due to rounding.

TABLE A.22
COMMERCIAL BANKS: INTEREST RATES, 2018-20201
/ PER CENT /
2020p
SECTION 2018 2019 2020p
I II III IV
A. LOAN RATES (MARKET)

(i) Installment Range 0.73-19.50 0.73-19.50 3.00-29.00 3.00-20.75 3.00-20.75 3.00-20.75 3.00-29.00
Median 7.50 7.50 6.76 8.93 6.75 6.68 6.63
(ii) Demand Range 0.20-15.50 0.20-15.50 0.00-20.00 1.50-15.25 2.00-20.00 0.00-17.25 2.00-17.25
Median 7.50 7.50 7.50 9.25 7.50 7.50 7.50
(iii) Overdraft Range 4.00-27.75 4.00-27.75 0.85-29.00 0.85-29.00 0.85-29.00 0.85-29.00 3.01-29.00
Median 7.50 7.50 7.56 9.25 7.63 7.50 7.50
(iv) Basic Prime Rate Range 8.75-9.75 8.85-9.75 7.25-9.75 7.25-9.75 7.25-7.80 7.25-7.80 7.25-7.80
Median 9.25 9.25 7.50 9.25 7.50 7.50 7.50
(v) Real Estate Mortgage Range 3.00-16.43 3.00-16.43 3.00-17.25 3.00-17.25 3.00-14.00 3.00-14.00 3.00-14.00
Median 7.50 7.50 6.69 7.88 6.50 6.50 7.25
B. DEPOSIT RATES (Announced)
(i) Ordinary Savings Range 0.03-1.00 0.03-1.00 0.00-1.10 0.00-0.40 0.00-1.10 0.00-1.10 0.00-1.10
Median 0.20 0.20 0.09 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.06
(ii) Special Savings Range 0.03-2.00 0.03-2.00 0.00-2.00 0.00-2.00 0.00-2.00 0.00-2.00 0.00-0.20
Median 0.20 0.20 0.31 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.05
(iii) 3-Months Time Range 0.05-3.95 0.05-3.95 0.00-0.65 0.00-0.65 0.00-0.65 0.00-0.65 0.00-0.65
Median 0.38 0.38 0.33 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.31
(iv) 3-6 Months Time Range 0.05-3.00 0.05-3.00 0.00-0.80 0.00-0.80 0.00-0.80 0.00-0.80 0.00-0.75
Median 0.45 0.45 0.42 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.34
(iv) 6-Months Time Range 0.05-0.75 0.05-0.75 0.00-0.80 0.25-0.80 0.25-0.80 0.25-0.80 0.04-0.60
Median 0.50 0.50 0.42 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.21
(v) 1-Year Time Range 0.05-3.00 0.05-3.00 0.00-1.50 0.00-1.50 0.00-1.50 0.00-1.50 0.00-1.30
Median 0.78 0.78 0.73 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.66
1 Annual data represent the rates for the twelve (12) months of the year and quarterly data represent the rates for the three (3) months of the quarter.
TABLE A.23
MONEY SUPPLY, 2016-2020
/ TT$ Millions /
END OF PERIOD
SECTOR
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020p
A. Narrow Money Supply (M-1A) 45,383.8 44,012.7 44,976.8 43,036.7 52,104.7

Currency in Active Circulation 7,846.6 8,104.1 7,941.2 4,782.3 7,318.1
Demand Deposits (adj.) 37,537.2 35,908.7 37,035.6 38,254.4 44,786.6
B. Factors Affecting Changes in Money Supply

1. Net Bank Credit to Central Government -31,113.8 -27,879.9 -26,287.5 -20,149.8 -22,243.8
(a) Central Bank -50,680.5 -45,444.5 -44,276.0 -34,138.5 -41,119.6
(b) Commercial Banks 19,566.7 17,564.5 17,988.5 13,988.7 18,875.8
2. Bank Credit 65,950.0 68,158.9 71,180.2 75,037.5 73,132.3
(a) Public Sectorl 11,760.6 11,213.7 11,292.6 12,586.5 11,507.3
(b) Private Sector2 54,189.4 56,945.1 59,887.6 62,451.0 61,625.0
3. External Assets (net) 87,670.2 83,921.9 82,920.6 48,574.4r 50,196.1
4. Quasi-Money3 -43,252.4 -42,741.8 -44,449.0 -46,438.5 -47,125.2
5. Foreign Currency Deposits (Adj.) -23,866.3 -23,986.1 -24,416.5 -24,223.6 -24,813.1
6. NFIs Foreign Currency Deposit (Adj.) -988.2 -398.5 -906.0 -656.0 -676.8
7. Other Items (Net) -10,004.0 -13,460.1 -13,970.8 10,236.6 r
22,958.4
C. Broad Money Supply (M-2) 88,636.2 86,754.6 89,425.8 89,475.2 99,229.8
D. Broad Money Supply (M-2*)4 112,502.5 110,740.7 113,842.4 113,698.8 124,043.0
Memorandum Items:5
Money Supply M-3 90,531.8 88,337.0 90,886.5 91,251.8 101,133.2
Money Supply M-3* 115,386.3 112,721.5 116,209.0 116,131.0 126,622.9
1 Includes Central Bank’s and commercial banks’ loans and holdings of public sector securities.
2 Includes commercial banks’ loans and holdings of private sector securities.
3 Excludes foreign currency deposits of residents which are shown separately below.
4 Includes foreign currency deposits of residents.
5 In addition to M-2, M-3 includes the time deposits of non-bank financial institutions (NFIs), while in addition to M-2*, M-3*
includes foreign currency deposits of residents at NFIs.
TABLE A.24
FINANCE COMPANIES AND MERCHANT BANKS:
SUMMARY OF ASSETS AND LIABILITIES, 2016-2020
/ TT$ Thousands /
CASH AND BALANCES DUE DOMESTIC CREDIT

EXTERNAL ASSETS
END OF PERIOD DEPOSITS AT FROM BANKS LOANS
(NET) INVESTMENTS TOTAL
CENTRAL BANK (NET) (GROSS)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
2016 80,678 276,354 390,714 1,814,241 3,766,180 5,580,421
2017 83,722 225,706 506,360 2,087,386 3,404,797 5,492,183
2018 119,506 219,656 728,218 2,337,738 3,688,482 6,026,220
2019 71,691 228,411 758,891 3,052,717 3,522,071 6,574,788
2020 p
141,350 181,123 1,140,032 2,604,531 3,565,264 6,169,795
2019
I 63,756 187,021 622,607 2,460,079 3,621,226 6,081,305
II 87,123 198,195 741,854 2,626,520 3,648,102 6,274,622
III 94,476 207,586 517,470 3,010,930 3,907,363 6,918,293
IV 71,691 228,411 758,891 3,052,717 3,522,071 6,574,788
2020
I 69,004 195,061 853,087 2,901,550 3,526,936 6,428,486
II 42,803 201,486 1,010,059 2,710,632 3,668,876 6,379,508
III 141,382 185,338 788,863 2,608,034 3,799,246 6,407,280
IVp 141,350 181,123 1,140,032 2,604,531 3,565,264 6,169,795
TOTAL ASSETS/ CAPITAL AND OTHER ITEMS

END OF PERIOD DEPOSITS BORROWINGS1 PROVISIONS
LIABILITIES RESERVES (NET)
(7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)

2016 6,236,147 2,066,349 1,263,158 92,021 2,734,604 172,178
2017 6,207,311 2,062,452 1,182,483 100,659 2,987,187 -22,194
2018 6,943,833 2,731,783 1,036,372 149,767 3,328,274 -134,374
2019 7,478,021 2,843,156 1,028,815 155,762 3,633,872 -13,352
2020p 7,450,320 2,520,957 1,022,874 181,985 3,922,229 -5,973
2019
I 6,808,809 2,528,556 1,033,593 145,884 3,332,359 -74,369
II 7,165,890r 2,846,148 1,014,458 135,902r 3,316,484 15,813r
III 7,551,390 3,223,364 1,015,967 186,434 3,330,316 -9,357
IV 7,478,021 2,843,156 1,028,815 155,762 3,633,872 -13,352
2020
I 7,381,718 2,633,039 1,045,213 163,921 3,703,849 8,522
II 7,443,100 2,650,955 1,033,277 190,753 3,783,803 -14,682
III 7,314,741 2,586,442 1,034,170 208,125 3,756,413 -55,039
IVp 7,450,320 2,520,957 1,022,874 181,985 3,922,229 -5,973
1 Borrowings from all sources other than commercial banks. Borrowings from commercial banks are reflected in Column 3.
TABLE A.25
DISTRIBUTION OF LOANS AND ADVANCES BY SECTOR, 2016-2020
/ TT$ Millions /
END OF PERIOD
SECTOR
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020p
Public Sector 25.3 101.1 230.3r 70.1 198.8

Private Sector 2,812.6 2,933.1 3,046.9 3,132.3 3,076.7
Agriculture 29.5 28.3 33.9 31.6 37.0
Petroleum 9.9 6.9 6.6 7.5 9.9
Manufacturing 83.6 92.9 77.0 57.3 62.0
Construction 165.7 231.9 135.7 142.7 188.7
Transport, Storage and Communication 169.0 121.7 118.4 115.8 126.4
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Services 513.6 532.4 626.3 472.4 464.5
Personal Services 116.4 142.1 157.5 333.6 147.7
Consumers 1,577.1 1,645.9 1,729.5 1,813.9 1,864.1
TOTAL (Excluding Real Estate Mortgage Loans and Leases) 2,837.9 3,034.2 3,277.3r 3,202.4 3,275.5
Real Estate Mortgage Loans 68.0 59.3 56.0 59.0 75.5

Leases 277.4 258.1 222.9 222.6 195.3
TOTAL LOANS 3,183.3 3,351.5 3,556.2r 3,484.1 3,546.3

TABLE A.26
PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF LOANS AND ADVANCES BY SECTOR, 2016-2020
/ PER CENT /
END OF PERIOD
SECTOR
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020p
Public Sector 0.8 3.0 6.5r 2.0 5.6

Private Sector 88.4 87.5 85.7 r
89.9 86.8
Agriculture 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.0
Petroleum 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
Manufacturing 2.6 2.8 2.2 1.6 1.7
Construction 5.2 6.9 3.8 4.1 5.3
Transport, Storage and Communication 5.3 3.6 3.3r 3.3 3.6
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services 16.1 15.9 17.6r 13.6 13.1
Personal Services 3.7 4.2 4.4 r
9.6 4.2
Consumers 49.5 49.1 48.6 r
52.1 52.6
TOTAL (Excluding Real EstateMortgage Loans and Leases) 89.1 90.5 92.2r 91.9 92.4
Real Estate Mortgage Loans 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.1

Leases 8.7 7.7 6.3 6.4 5.5
TOTAL LOANS 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
SOURCE: Table A.25

TABLE A.27
TRUST AND MORTGAGE FINANCE COMPANIES:

SUMMARY OF ASSETS AND LIABILITIES, 2016-2020
/ TT$ Thousands /
CASH AND BALANCES DUE DOMESTIC CREDIT TOTAL

END OF PERIOD DEPOSITS AT FROM BANKS ASSETS/
LOANS
CENTRAL BANK (NET) INVESTMENTS TOTAL LIABILITIES
(GROSS)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
2016 255,733 657,197 1,139,612 422,433 2,204,502 2,460,235
2017 161,894 558,807 636,423 239,338 1,422,836 1,584,730
2018 14,485 588,444 459,127 201,710 1,237,244 1,251,729
2019 45,067 576,103 461,475 393,295 1,413,320 1,458,387
2020p 85,987 746,908 517,952 498,365 1,739,812 1,825,799
2019
I 15,393 408,497 584,930 199,983 1,180,565 1,195,958
II 13,079 773,200 366,095 205,663 1,329,776 1,342,855
III 75,504 649,213 541,125 231,959 1,406,166 1,481,670
IV 45,067 576,103 461,475 393,295 1,413,320 1,458,387
2020
I 21,333 375,332 498,748 583,260 1,436,889 1,458,222
II 31,575 476,558 502,624 539,016 1,493,326 1,524,901
III 42,495 602,806 519,184 589,834 1,683,894 1,726,389
IVp 85,987 746,908 517,952 498,365 1,739,812 1,825,799
CAPITAL AND
END OF PERIOD DEPOSITS BORROWINGS PROVISIONS OTHER ITEMS (NET)
RESERVES
(7) (8) (9) (10) (11)

2016 1,191,457 -68 14,740 1,325,305 -56,460
2017 314,533 -68 11,732 1,470,817 -200,553
2018 110,976 -68 12,037 1,288,915 -148,093
2019 207,477 -68 17,553 1,421,192 -156,581
2020p 390,866 39,932 24,392 1,437,309 -3,088
2019
I 136,437 -68 12,845 1,257,656 -188,232
II 151,042 -68 15,182 1,372,923 -175,079
III 173,851r -68 16,131 1,397,737 -81,952r
IV 207,477 -68 17,553 1,421,192 -156,581
2020
I 222,950 129,932 20,451 1,384,748 -136,331
II 309,395 36,933 24,872 1,400,226 -184,474
III 384,460 -68 27,930 1,419,243 -77,058
IVp 390,866 39,932 24,392 1,437,309 -3,088

TABLE A.28
DEVELOPMENT BANKS: SUMMARY OF ASSETS AND LIABILITIES, 2016-2020

/ TT$ Thousands /
NET DOMESTIC ASSETS

EXTERNAL TOTAL CAPITAL
END OF OTHER
ASSETS DEPOSITS PUBLIC PRIVATE ASSETS/ AND
PERIOD ITEMS (NET)
(NET) IN LOCAL SECTOR SECTOR TOTAL LIABILITIES RESERVES
BANKS CREDIT CREDIT
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
2016 0 -452,576 -1,452,997 4,175,081 2,269,508 2,269,508 1,576,492 693,016
2017 0 -37,464 -617,652 4,338,312 3,683,196 3,683,196 1,608,305 2,074,891
2018 0 -699,915 -399,200 4,024,546 2,925,432 2,925,432 1,692,917 1,232,515
2019 0 -143,717 -10,000 4,342,300 4,188,583 4,188,583 1,759,748 2,428,834
2020 0 -138,581 0 4,483,608 4,345,027 4,345,027 1,774,604 2,570,423
2016
I 0 -524,136 -1,156,428 3,946,920 2,266,356 2,266,356 1,499,156 767,200
II 0 -503,352 -1,309,419 4,019,873 2,207,102 2,207,102 1,488,221 718,881
III 0 -429,756 -1,415,278 4,154,029 2,308,995 2,308,995 1,536,123 772,872
IV 0 -452,576 -1,452,997 4,175,081 2,269,508 2,269,508 1,576,492 693,016
2017
I 0 -441,355 -1,421,197 4,234,443 2,371,891 2,371,891 1,607,292 764,599
II 0 -473,343 -1,398,570 4,248,230 2,376,317 2,376,317 1,570,003 806,314
III 0 -470,766 -627,913 4,327,907 3,229,228 3,229,228 1,586,759 1,642,470
IV 0 -37,464 -617,652 4,338,312 3,683,196 3,683,196 1,608,305 2,074,891
2018
I 0 -348,620 -582,853 4,246,103 3,314,629 3,314,629 1,637,866 1,676,763
II 0 -352,549 -572,314 4,364,971 3,440,108 3,440,108 1,626,728 1,813,380
III 0 -306,363 -537,514 3,895,389 3,051,512 3,051,512 1,645,197 1,406,315
IV 0 -699,915 -399,200 4,024,546 2,925,432 2,925,432 1,692,917 1,232,515
2019
I 0 -816,230 -376,200 4,124,249 2,931,819 2,931,819 1,721,236 1,210,583
II 0 -145,909 -20,000 4,256,996 4,091,087 4,091,087 1,697,435 2,393,652
III 0 -146,051 -10,000 4,120,033 3,963,982 3,963,982 1,728,300 2,235,682
IV 0 -143,717 -10,000 4,342,300 4,188,583 4,188,583 1,759,748 2,428,834
2020
I 0 -146,645 -10,000 4,263,857 4,107,212 4,107,212 1,780,532 2,326,680
II 0 -143,643 -10,000 4,216,267 4,062,624 4,062,624 1,774,830 2,287,794
III 0 -142,110 0 4,291,584 4,149,473 4,149,473 1,745,061 2,404,411
IV 0 -138,581 0 4,483,608 4,345,027 4,345,027 1,774,604 2,570,423
TABLE A.29
THRIFT INSTITUTIONS: SUMMARY OF ASSETS AND LIABILITIES, 2016-2020

/ TT$ Thousands /
NET DOMESTIC ASSETS DEPOSITS

EXTERNAL TOTAL OTHER
END OF
ASSETS NET PUBLIC PRIVATE ASSETS/ SHARES ITEMS
PERIOD
(NET) DEPOSITS IN SECTOR SECTOR TOTAL LIABILITIES TIME SAVINGS TOTAL (NET)
LOCAL BANKS CREDIT CREDIT
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11)
2016 0 7,554 9,934 85,684 103,172 103,172 19,894 8,005 27,899 18,422 56,851
2017 0 4,602 9,575 94,369 108,546 108,546 21,207 8,307 29,514 20,712 58,320
2018 0 1,610 9,745 106,897 118,252 118,252 25,840 9,398 35,238 21,946 61,068
2019 0 401 5,880 120,107 126,388 126,388 32,679 8,548 41,227 23,768 61,393
2020 0 2,733 6,820 114,065 123,618 123,618 29,920 8,339 38,259 22,011 63,349
2016
I 0 11,265 8,346 80,147 99,758 99,758 19,065 7,745 26,810 16,491 56,457
II 0 10,062 10,089 81,977 102,128 102,128 20,187 7,741 27,928 17,230 56,970
III 0 10,648 10,146 83,193 103,987 103,987 19,871 7,923 27,794 17,594 58,599
IV 0 7,554 9,934 85,684 103,172 103,172 19,894 8,005 27,899 18,422 56,851
2017
I 0 6,775 9,941 87,490 104,206 104,206 19,834 8,681 28,515 18,499 57,192
II 0 6,892 9,788 90,622 107,302 107,302 20,904 8,792 29,696 19,419 58,187
III 0 4,268 9,826 94,769 108,863 108,863 21,198 8,663 29,861 19,824 59,178
IV 0 4,602 9,575 94,369 108,546 108,546 21,207 8,307 29,514 20,712 58,320
2018
I 0 9,172 9,562 93,443 112,177 112,177 23,506 9,128 32,634 21,309 58,234
II 0 9,993 9,850 97,538 117,381 117,381 24,600 10,919 35,519 21,064 60,798
III 0 4,330 9,944 102,363 116,637 116,637 25,440 9,299 34,739 21,247 60,651
IV 0 1,610 9,745 106,897 118,252 118,252 25,840 9,398 35,238 21,946 61,068
2019
I 0 243 7,309 111,364 118,916 118,916 26,696 8,911 35,607 22,161 61,148
II 0 -3,065 9,130 113,233 119,298 119,298 26,318 8,999 35,317 22,980 61,001
III 0 -2,270 6,553 114,641 118,924 118,924 26,206 8,521 34,727 23,015 61,182
IV 0 401 5,880 120,107 126,388 126,388 32,679 8,548 41,227 23,768 61,393
2020
I 0 300 5,992 120,919 127,211 127,211 30,406 8,096 38,502 23,977 64,732
II 0 3,737 5,992 117,233 126,962 126,962 29,798 8,030 37,828 24,513 64,622
III 0 3,858 7,992 116,271 128,121 128,121 29,777 7,761 37,538 24,743 65,839
IV 0 2,733 6,820 114,065 123,618 123,618 29,920 8,339 38,259 22,011 63,349

TABLE A.30
NON-BANK FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS INTEREST RATES, 2018-20201

/ PER CENT /
2020p
INTEREST RATES 2018 2019 2020p
I II III IV
1. Thrift Institutions
(a) Savings Deposits
Range 0.50-0.50 0.50-0.50 0.50-0.50 0.50-0.50 0.50-0.50 0.50-0.50 0.50-0.50
Median 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50
(b) Time Deposits
(i) l - 3 years
Range 0.50-3.75 0.50-3.75 0.50-3.75 0.50-3.75 0.50-3.75 0.50-3.75 0.50-3.75
Median 2.13 2.13 2.13 2.13 2.13 2.13 2.13
(c) Mortgage Loans (Residential)
Range 7.00-9.00 7.00-9.00 7.00-9.00 7.00-9.00 7.00-9.00 7.00-9.00 7.00-9.00
Median 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00
2. Trust and Mortgage Finance Companies

(a) Time Deposits
(i) 1 - 3 years
Range 3.00-6.00 3.00-6.00 3.00-6.00 3.00-6.00 3.00-6.00 3.00-6.00 3.00-6.00
Median 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25
(ii) Over 3 years
Range 3.00-4.00 3.00-4.00 3.00-4.00 3.00-4.00 3.00-4.00 3.00-4.00 3.00-4.00
Median 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50
(b) Mortgage Loans
(i) Residential
Range 12.00-16.0012.00-16.0012.00-16.0012.00-16.0012.00-16.0012.00-16.0012.00-16.00
Median 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00
3. Finance Companies and Merchant Banks

(a) Time Deposits
(i) 1 - 3 years
Range 3.25-8.50 3.25-8.50 3.25-8.50 3.25-8.50 3.25-8.50 3.25-8.50 3.25-8.50
Median 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25
(b) Installment Loans
Range 6.00-25.41 6.00-25.41 6.00-25.41 6.00-25.41 6.00-25.41 6.00-25.41 6.00-25.41
Median 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00
1 Annual and quarterly data represent the rates for the twelve (12) months of the year and the three (3) months of the quarter, respectively.
TABLE A.31
MONEY AND CAPITAL MARKET ACTIVITY, 2016-20201
NEW ISSUES ($MN) SECONDARY MARKET TURNOVER2
GOVERNMENT
TREASURY BILLS PUBLIC COMPANY SHARES
END OF SECURITIES3
PERIOD GOVERNMENT TREASURY
OTHER4 VOLUME
SECURITIES BILLS FACE NO. OF FACE NO. OF MARKET NO. OF
OF SHARES
VALUE TRANS- VALUE TRANS- VALUE TRANS-
TRADED
($MN) ACTIONS ($MN) ACTIONS ($MN) ACTIONS
($MN)
2016 4,162.9 0.0 2,383.8 1,722.3 155 650.8 61 951.8 10,519 92.0
I 0.0 0.0 97.7 275.9 23 212.2 19 234.4 2,873 28.5
II 3,162.9 0.0 1,630.8 740.5 74 127.8 11 292.1 2,838 29.9
III 0.0 0.0 536.2 502.9 40 237.9 16 197.5 2,531 14.0
IV 1,000.0 0.0 119.0 203.1 18 72.9 15 227.8 2,277 19.6
2017 9,875.0 1,105.0 2,936.1 986.1 114 778.5 79 1,024.7 11,221 84.5
I 2,500.0 0.0 1,614.7 358.5 46 226.1 29 184.2 2,855 19.5
II 2,200.0 1,105.0 571.3 97.7 17 126.6 15 273.4 2,684 22.8
III 2,500.0 0.0 450.0 43.6 11 21.0 8 283.1 2,758 18.8
IV 2,675.0 0.0 300.0 486.3 40 404.7 27 284.0 2,924 23.5
2018 4,740.0 0.0 5,554.0 318.1 57 148.9 17 1,148.4 11,721 72.3

I 1,200.0 0.0 812.2 123.3 12 22.9 3 230.0 2,979 16.4
II 750.0 0.0 3,138.3 0.7 3 25.2 1 271.2 2,740 17.3
III 450.0 0.0 996.0 182.8 30 68.9 6 302.9 2,769 17.8
IV 2,340.0 0.0 607.5 11.2 12 31.9 7 344.3 3,233 20.8
2019 7,285.4 2,570.0 4,715.7 182.0 55 461.4 57 1,102.3 12,054 76.9

I 642.4 0.0 200.0 57.8 20 193.8 23 287.4 2,848 18.0
II 2,500.0 815.0 1,015.7 31.6 12 205.6 31 250.8 3,114 16.3
III 843.0 620.0 375.0 79.0 7 37.5 2 264.0 3,161 23.6
IV 3,300.0 1,135.0 3,125.0 13.6 16 24.6 1 300.2 2,931 19.0
2020 12,538.7 1,661.0 6,698.7 448.7 22 218.4 21 1,042.9 11,668 61.3

I 2,250.0 1,561.0 1,615.2 2.0 1 126.3 15 422.9 3,804 23.7
II 4,255.5 100.0 2,471.5 0.9 2 91.9 5 238.6 2,736 15.5
III 2,000.0 0.0 1,000.0 416.7 10 0.0 0 187.3 2,457 10.7
IV 4,033.2 0.0 1,612.0 29.1 9 0.2 1 194.1 2,671 11.3
SOURCES: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago and Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchange
1 Totals may not add due to rounding.

2 Data refer to the double transactions of buying and selling.
3 Trading in Government securities and treasury bills was conducted under the aegis of the Investment Division, Central Bank of Trinidad and
Tobago. From 1993 trading in Government securities has been conducted by the Stock Exchange of Trinidad and Tobago.
4 Data include domestic bonds issued by public entities which have been guaranteed by the Government of Trinidad and Tobago.
TABLE A.32
SELECTED INTEREST RATES, 2018-20201

/ PER CENT PER ANNUM /
2020
INTEREST RATES 2018 2019 2020p
I II III IVp
A. Central Bank
(i) Bank Rate 7.00 7.00 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50
(ii) Special Deposits Rate 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
(iii) Repo Rate2 5.00 5.00 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50
(iv) Reverse Repo Rate 2
4.50 4.50 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
(v) Mortgage Market Reference Rate (MMRR)3 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
B. Government
(i) Treasury Bills 1.30 1.08 0.08 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.08
C. Commercial Banks - Local Currency

(i) Weighted Average Rate on Loans 8.10 7.81 7.40 7.52 7.40 7.39 7.29
(ii) Weighted Average Rate on Deposits 0.64 0.66 0.63 0.68 0.64 0.62 0.60
(iii) Interest Spread (i - ii) 7.46 7.15 6.77 6.84 6.76 6.78 6.68
D. Non-Bank Financial Institutions4 - Local Currency

(i) Weighted Average Rate on Loans 9.76 10.53 10.65 10.68 10.55 10.51 10.85
(ii) Weighted Average Rate on Deposits 2.67 2.85 2.80 2.97 2.83 2.66 2.75
(iii) Interest Spread (i - ii) 7.10 7.69 7.85 7.72 7.72 7.85 8.09
1 Annual data refer to the average of the quarterly averages for the respective years, except for the Bank Rate, Repo Rate, the Reverse Repo Rate
and the Treasury Bill Rate which reflect the end of quarter/year position.
2 In May 2002, the Central Bank introduced a system of announced overnight repurchase or ‘repo’ rates for short-term government paper. The
repo rate is the Bank’s key policy interest rate and applies to collaterised overnight financing provided to commercial banks. The reverse repo
rate is paid on occasions that the Central Bank offers to take overnight funds from commercial banks and is set as the repo rate less 50 basis
points.
3 The Mortgage Market Reference Rate (MMRR) was introduced by the Central Bank on December 01, 2011 and represents a reference mort-
gage rate against which residential mortgages can be priced and re-priced.
4 Includes Finance Houses and Trust and Mortgage Finance Companies and represents rates for licensed institutions only.
TABLE A.33 (a)

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, STANDARD PRESENTATION 2016-20201,2,3
/ US$ Millions /
Jan-Sep Jan-Sep
ITEM 2016r 2017r 2018p 2019p
2019p 2020p
Current Account -779.5 1,409.1 1,612.6 1,056.0 999.4 372.7
Goods and Services -361.2 1,080.8 2,412.8 1,641.9 1,381.5 23.1
Goods, net* 1,415.7 3,193.0 4,124.2 2,730.6 2,190.0 748.1
Exports** 8,504.4 9,644.7 10,755.6 8,764.3 6,716.1 4,293.6
Petroleum Crude and Refined 2,560.4 2,693.4 2,933.9 2,016.2 1,492.1 955.1
Gas 1,728.4 2,249.3 2,899.4 2,350.0 1,813.3 945.1
Petrochemicals 2,361.1 2,925.0 3,256.6 2,607.4 2,055.6 1,327.6
Other 1,854.5 1,777.0 1,665.7 1,790.7 1,355.2 1,065.8
Imports** 7,088.7 6,451.7 6,631.4 6,033.7 4,526.2 3,545.5
Fuel*** 1,542.3 1,617.7 1,755.3 1,222.1 914.4 520.0
Capital 1,949.2 1,368.9 1,408.4 1,244.7 961.6 798.7
Other 3,597.2 3,465.1 3,467.7 3,566.9 2,650.2 2,226.8
Services, net -1,776.9 -2,112.2 -1,711.3 -1,088.6 -808.5 -725.0
Transport -295.8 -275.1 -432.7 -423.2 -322.2 -246.4
Travel 276.1 356.7 331.5 350.7 273.1 114.5
Telecommunications, Computer, and -32.8 -33.1 -35.8 -31.8 -24.1 -18.4
Information Services
Insurance and Pension Services -179.2 -187.6 -180.7 -154.1 -119.9 -162.3
Other Services^ -1,545.2 -1,973.1 -1,393.7 -830.3 -615.4 -412.4
Secondary Income, net 10.0 279.5 -99.8 21.8 27.2 37.3
Capital Account 0.2 1.2 2.4 10.3 10.2 6.2
Financial Account -1,386.8 449.6 174.6 574.7 817.8 -157.4
Direct Investment -1.7 458.8 765.2 -69.8 -49.4 458.3
Net Acquisition of Financial Assets -25.3 -12.0 65.0 114.2 92.8 129.5
Net Incurrence of Liabilities -23.6 -470.9 -700.2 184.0 142.2 -328.9
Portfolio Investment -1,402.8 373.1 418.1 1,453.9 1,381.1 -243.6
Net Acquisition of Financial Assets -97.1 224.1 350.4 1,245.4 877.1 -141.9
Net Incurrence of Liabilities 1,305.7 -148.9 -67.7 -208.5 -504.0 101.6
Financial Derivatives 0.0 4.7 5.3 -0.2 -1.3 -8.7
Net Acquisition of Financial Assets 0.0 4.4 5.2 -0.4 -0.4 -8.9
Net Incurrence of Liabilities 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.9 -0.2
Other Investment^^ 17.8 -386.9 -1,014.0 -809.1 -512.6 -363.4
Net Acquisition of Financial Assets -93.8 163.1 -309.9 329.1 737.3 -169.1
Net Incurrence of Liabilities -111.6 550.1 704.1 1,138.2 1,249.9 194.3
Net Errors and Omissions -1,074.7 -2,056.7 -2,235.0 -1,137.7 -868.0 -158.7
Overall Balance -467.2 -1,096.0 -794.7 -646.1 -676.1 377.5
Memorandum Items
Current Account/GDP (per cent) -3.5 6.3 6.8 4.6 5.7 2.3
Gross Official Reserves (US$Mn) ^^^ 9,465.8 8,369.8 7,575.0 6,929.0 6,898.9 7,306.4
Import Cover (months)^^^ 10.5 9.7 8.0 7.7 7.7 8.7
Debt Service Ratio 1.9 2.1 2.2 3.0 3.3 13.3
Net International Investment Position (US$Mn)^^^ 4,967.1 4,658.7 3,685.3 4,214.7 4,558.6 3,652.8
NOTES:
1 Due to COVID-19 related restrictions implemented by the Government and the resulting work-from-home measures employed by
some companies, survey response rates have been below historical levels for the first three quarters of 2020. Therefore, as additional
data from surveys are incorporated upon receipt, estimates may be subject to revisions in the future.
2 GDP prior to 2020 are sourced from the CSO and that for 2020 are Ministry of Finance estimates sourced from 2020/21 original budget.
3 This table is an analytical presentation of the Balance of Payments and is presented in accordance with the IMF’s Balance of Payments
and International Investment Position Manual, Sixth Edition (BPM6). Refer to Box 3 of the Economic Bulletin, March 2017 for a Techni-
cal Note on the Transition to BPM6.
The following financial account movements are represented with a negative sign:
• A decrease in assets (inflow)
• A decrease in liabilities (outflow)
• A net inflow in net balances
The following financial account movements are represented with a positive sign:
• An increase in assets (outflow)
• An increase in liabilities (inflow)
• A net outflow in net balances
* Energy goods data comprise estimates by the Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago.
** Exports and imports are reported on a FOB (Free on Board) basis. Energy exports include exports of petroleum, petroleum products
and related materials and the exports of petrochemicals.
*** Includes petroleum, petroleum products and related materials.
^ Other Services consists of manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others, maintenance and repair services n.i.e., construc-
tion, financial services, charges for the use of intellectual property n.i.e., other business services and government goods and services n.i.e.
^^ Other investment comprise currency and deposits, loans, insurance, pension, and standardised guarantee schemes, trade credit and
advances, other accounts receivable/payable and special drawing rights (liabilities).
^^^ End of Period.
TABLE A.33 (B.1)
DIRECT INVESTMENT: NET INCURRENCE OF LIABILITIES (BY SECTOR)

/ US$ Millions /
Jan-Sep Jan-Sep
ITEM 2016 2017r 2018p 2019p
2018p 2019p
Petroleum Industries -431.9 -566.7 -716.4 -231.1 -519.2 -189.8
Petroleum Industries 75.2 -544.9 -366.9 18.8 -549.2 -15.4
Mining, Exploration and Production and Refineries -534.0 -30.4 -384.1 -261.4 0.5 -170.1
Petrochemicals 26.9 8.7 34.5 11.5 29.5 -4.4
Food, Drink and Tobacco 47.6 23.6 -7.4 4.7 -7.4 -4.5
Chemicals and Non-Metallic Minerals 4.0 26.1 -7.8 -2.7 -1.8 -4.2
Assembly Type and Related Industries 65.2 32.5 28.9 -4.8 36.2 6.4
Distribution 88.2 -4.8 23.7 12.4 15.0 3.1
All Other Sectors1 203.3 18.3 -21.1 405.5 -14.5 331.2
TOTAL -23.6 -470.9 -700.2 184.0 -491.6 142.2
Memorandum Items:
Energy Sector -431.9 -566.7 -716.4 -231.1 -519.2 -189.8
Non-Energy Sector 408.3 95.8 16.2 415.1 27.6 332.0
NOTE: This table shows net changes (increases less decreases) in direct investment liabilities (direct investment in Trinidad and Tobago). A
decrease in liabilities (outflow) is represented with a negative sign. An increase in liabilities (inflow) is represented with a positive sign.
1 "All Other Sectors" include Textiles, Garments, Footwear, Headwear, Printing, Publishing and Paper Converters, Wood and Related
Products, Miscellaneous Manufacturing, Electricity and Water, Construction, Hotels and Guest Houses, Transportation, Communication
and Storage, Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services, Educational and Cultural Community Services, Personal Services and
Other sectors.
TABLE A.33 (B.2)
DIRECT INVESTMENT: NET INCURRENCE OF LIABILITIES (BY SECTOR)

/ US$ Millions /
Jan-Sep
ITEM
2020p
Mining and Quarrying -73.1
Manufacturing -132.5
Wholesale and Retail Trade 0.0
Financial and insurance activities -84.0
Other Sectors -39.2
TOTAL -328.9
Memorandum Items:
Energy Sector -215.9
Non-Energy Sector -113.0
NOTES:
1 This table shows net changes (increases less decreases) in direct investment liabilities (direct investment in Trinidad and To-
bago). A decrease in liabilities (outflow) is represented with a negative sign. An increase in liabilities (inflow) is represented
with a positive sign.
2 Effective 2020 data, the industry breakdown now conforms to the International Standard Industrial Classification of All
Economic Activities, Revision 4 (ISIC. Rev 4).
3 "Other Sectors" include Agriculture, forestry and fishing, Electric power generation, transmission and distribution, Con-
struction, Transportation and storage, Manufacture of gas; distribution of gaseous fuels through mains, Steam and air
conditioning supply, Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, Accommodation and food
service activities, Information and communication, Real estate activities, Professional, scientific and technical activities,
Administrative and support service activities, Public administration and defence; compulsory social security, Education,
Human health and social work activities, Arts, entertainment and recreation and Other service activities.
4 Due to COVID-19 related restrictions implemented by the Government and the resulting work-from-home measures em-
ployed by some companies, survey response rates have been below historical levels for the first three quarters of 2020.
Therefore, as additional data from surveys are incorporated upon receipt, estimates may be subject to revisions in the future.
TABLE A.33 (C)
DIRECT INVESTMENT: NET INCURRENCE OF LIABILITIES (BY COUNTRY)

/ US$ Millions /
Jan-Sep Jan-Sep
ITEM 2016 2017r 2018p 2019p
2019p 2020p
U.S.A. 408.4 -57.6 -116.7 -206.1 -369.3 71.7

U.K. -35.5 -414.6 -281.8 314.5 268.5 -40.9
Canada -387.1 -102.2 0.6 58.3 44.1 -14.1
Barbados -162.3 -46.4 -259.1 -173.3 -23.8 -292.6
Netherlands 6.7 1.0 -3.2 2.9 -0.9 0.4
St. Lucia 40.1 9.3 17.2 58.7 48.4 -9.4
Other 106.2 139.6 -57.2 129.0 175.3 -43.9
TOTAL -23.6 -470.9 -700.2 184.0 142.2 -328.9
NOTE: This table shows net changes (increases less decreases) in direct investment liabilities (direct investment in Trinidad
and Tobago). A decrease in liabilities (outflow) is represented with a negative sign. An increase in liabilities (inflow) is repre-
sented with a positive sign. Data are presented in accordance with the International Monetary Fund's Balance of Payments
and International Investment Position Manual, Sixth Edition (BPM6) which prescribes that geographical distribution of direct
investment is based on the immediate investing country.
TABLE A.34
WEIGHTED AVERAGE TT DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATES
FOR SELECTED CURRENCIES 2016-20201
UNITED STATES CANADIAN UK POUND

JAPANESE YEN EURO
DOLLAR DOLLAR STERLING
PERIOD
BUYING SELLING BUYING SELLING BUYING SELLING BUYING SELLING BUYING SELLING
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)
2016 6.6152 6.6715 4.9425 5.2478 8.8462 9.4051 0.0632 0.0642 7.2682 7.6602
2017 6.7283 6.7795 5.1182 5.4517 8.6071 9.1537 0.0599 0.0628 7.5373 8.0093
2018 6.7321 6.7813 5.1438 5.4918 8.9231 9.5572 0.0609 0.0642 7.9261 8.4500
2019 6.7306 6.7800 5.0538 5.3813 8.5342 9.1294 0.0617 0.0653 7.5445 8.0224
2020 6.7204 6.7803 5.0261 5.3627 8.6183 9.2182 0.0630 0.0666 7.7617 8.2307
2020
January 6.7297 6.7797 5.1249 5.4573 8.7147 9.3480 0.0615 0.0653 7.4434 7.9413
February 6.7172 6.7869 5.0793 5.3784 8.7088 9.2624 0.0610 0.0645 7.3433 7.8099
March 6.7268 6.7788 4.8307 5.1676 8.3144 8.8980 0.0625 0.0665 7.6013 7.9357
I 6.7250 6.7815 5.0102 5.3343 8.5751 9.1678 0.0617 0.0655 7.4682 7.9006
April 6.7200 6.7731 4.7918 5.0972 8.3581 8.9215 0.0625 0.0651 7.4759 7.7776
May 6.7196 6.7773 4.8257 5.1417 8.2661 8.8500 0.0626 0.0662 7.4091 7.8249
June 6.7277 6.7827 4.9546 5.3011 8.3810 9.0273 0.0625 0.0665 7.7073 8.1184
II 6.7224 6.7777 4.8574 5.1800 8.3350 8.9330 0.0625 0.0660 7.5307 7.9070
July 6.7189 6.7788 4.9853 5.3005 8.4753 9.0800 0.0629 0.0666 7.7525 8.2731
August 6.7135 6.7815 5.0733 5.4559 8.8162 9.4569 0.0633 0.0667 8.0949 8.5633
September 6.7100 6.7826 5.1014 5.4634 8.7481 9.3062 0.0635 0.0672 7.9541 8.4774
III 6.7143 6.7809 5.0509 5.4025 8.6714 9.2720 0.0632 0.0668 7.9256 8.4308
October 6.7147 6.7802 5.1021 5.4375 8.7166 9.3254 0.0638 0.0677 8.0152 8.4981
November 6.7197 6.7807 5.1537 5.4983 8.8611 9.4294 0.0647 0.0681 7.9890 8.5756
December 6.7258 6.7819 5.2599 5.6197 9.0260 9.6705 0.0648 0.0687 8.2579 8.8505
IV 6.7201 6.7809 5.1722 5.5188 8.8680 9.4758 0.0644 0.0682 8.0889 8.6424
1 Monthly and quarterly rates are an average of daily rates.

TABLE A.35
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO - INTERNATIONAL RESERVES, 2016-20201
/ US$ Millions /
CENTRAL BANK
NET
Of which NET CENTRAL OFFICIAL
END OF PERIOD FOREIGN FOREIGN INTERNATIONAL GOVERNMENT
IMF RESERVE RESERVES
ASSETS1 SDR LIABILITIES RESERVES
TRANCHE (5+6)
HOLDINGS (1+4)
POSITION
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
2016 9,462.9 131.6 325.6 0.0 9,462.9 2.9 9,465.8
2017 8,366.2 97.1 344.9 0.0 8,366.2 3.6 8,369.8
2018 7,571.4 117.1 336.5 0.0 7,571.4 3.6 7,575.0
2019 6,924.7 131.7 334.4 0.0 6,924.7 4.3 6,929.0
2020 6,949.1 161.6 348.6 0.0 6,949.1 4.7 6,953.8
2019
I 7,346.9 116.9 335.8 0.0 7,346.9 3.6 7,350.5
II 6,990.0 117.1 336.3 0.0 6,990.0 3.6 6,993.6
III 6,894.7 129.8 329.7 0.0 6,894.7 4.2 6,898.9
IV 6,924.7 131.7 334.4 0.0 6,924.7 4.3 6,929.0
2020
I 6,621.0 130.0 330.3 0.0 6,621.0 4.5 6,625.5
II 7,308.7 151.6 333.0 0.0 7,308.7 4.6 7,313.3
III 7,301.8 155.1 340.7 0.0 7,301.8 4.6 7,306.4
IV 6,949.1 161.6 348.6 0.0 6,949.1 4.7 6,953.8
COMMERCIAL BANKS
GROSS FOREIGN TOTAL FOREIGN NET FOREIGN
END OF PERIOD NET FOREIGN ASSETS LIABILITIES RESERVES
FOREIGN FOREIGN
POSITION (1+6+8) (4+9) (11-12)
ASSETS LIABILITIES
(8-9)
(8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13)
2016 3,343.8 605.5 2,738.2 12,809.6 605.5 12,204.0
2017 3,332.5 559.2 2,773.3 11,702.3 559.2 11,143.1
2018 3,420.4 647.2 2,773.2 10,995.4 647.2 10,348.3
2019 3,608.8 918.6 2,690.2 10,537.8 918.6 9,619.2
2020 3,894.5 724.0 3,170.4 10,848.2 724.0 10,124.2
2019
I 3,308.4 695.3 2,613.1 10,658.9 695.3 9,963.6
II 3,521.0 754.3 2,766.7 10,514.5 754.3 9,760.3
III 3,803.8 863.0 2,940.8 10,702.8 863.0 9,839.7
IV 3,608.9 918.6 2,690.3 10,537.9 918.6 9,619.3
2020
I 3,787.6 746.2 3,041.4 10,413.1 746.2 9,666.9
II 3,827.4 761.4 3,066.0 11,140.7 761.4 10,379.3
III 3,894.5 724.0 3,170.4 11,200.9 724.0 10,476.9
IV 3,894.5 724.0 3,170.4 10,848.2 724.0 10,124.2
1 International reserves have been revised to include Trinidad and Tobago’s reserve position in the IMF. International reserves are defined
as external assets that are readily available to and controlled by monetary authorities for direct financing of payments imbalances, for
indirectly regulating the magnitudes of such imbalances through intervention in exchange markets and for other purposes. Typically, they
include securities, gold, IMF special drawing rights (SDRs), a country’s holding of foreign currency and deposits, reserve position in the
IMF, and other claims (Balance of Payments Manual 6th Edition Paragraph 6.64).
TABLE A.36
SUMMARY ACCOUNTS OF THE CENTRAL BANK, 2016-2020

/ TT$ Millions /
ITEM 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Net Foreign Assets 60,467 53,004 47,816 43,422 45,440

Net International Reserves 63,837 56,579 51,338 46,671 46,984
Assets 63,837 56,579 51,338 46,671 46,984
Liabilities 0 0 0 0 0
Other Foreign Assets -3,369 -3,574 -3,523 -3,249 -3,295
Other External Assets 25 39 57 32 2
Medium and Long-Term Foreign Liabilities -425 -554 -575 -287 -158
SDR Allocation -2,969 -3,059 -3,004 -2,993 -3,139
Net Domestic Assets -31,705 -26,171 -22,280 -13,491 -11,571

Net Credit to the Public Sector -21,604 r
-16,803 r
-15,415 r
-5,274 r
-2,348
Central Government (net) -21,566r -16,765r -15,370r -5,222r -2,304
Treasury Bills 167 0 0 0 0
Other Government Securities 3,143 198 198 163 114
Loans to Government 36,459 46,977 51,970 42,301 45,101
Use of Reserves (-addition) -61,335 r
-63,940 r
-67,538 r
-47,6856 r
-47,519
Rest of Public Sector -38 -37 -45 -52 -45
of which: Public Enterprises 0 0 0 0 0
Net Claims on Financial Institutions 0 0 0 0 0
Other Items (net) -10,101 r
-9,368 r
-6,865 r
-8,217 r
-9,223
Reserve Money 28,762 26,834 25,536 29,931 32,117

Currency in Circulation 9,366 9,421 9,387 8,799 8,412
Deposits of Commercial Banks 18,773 17,092 15,966 20,862 23,448
Deposits of Non-Bank Financial Institutions 624 321 183 270 257
Changes as a Per Cent of Beginning-of-Period Reserve Money
Net Foreign Assets 0 -26 -19 -17 1

Net Domestic Assets -8 19 14 34 6
Of which: Central Government 4 17 5 40 10
Reserve Money -9 -7 -5 17 7
Memorandum Item:
Government Blocked Account 31,344 24,304 24,959 14,757 11,460

Appendix TWO
Feature Article
Modelling the Import Demand Function:
The Case of Trinidad and Tobago
FEATURE ARTICLE:
MODELLING THE IMPORT DEMAND FUNCTION:
THE CASE OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
by Lauren Sonnylal, Ashley Bobb and Kester Thompson1
Merchandise imports as a per cent of Gross Domestic reserves and exports as a capacity to import. In
Product (GDP) have more than doubled to 27.7 per the literature, a depreciation in the exchange rate
cent in 2019 from 11.4 per cent in 1980, primarily was revealed to have an adverse effect on import
reflective of Trinidad and Tobago’s dependence growth, such that imports become more expensive,
on foreign products for intermediate and final while increased foreign reserves displayed a positive
consumption. This increase in demand for externally relationship with import demand. Studies have also
produced goods coupled with the limited supply of explored the use of expenditure components rather
foreign exchange within the domestic market have than aggregate income (Narayan and Narayan,
prompted the need to better understand import 2005)4, while others focused on the disaggregated,
demand patterns and the influencing factors of as well as the production differentiation approach
consumers. The article seeks to determine the (Mogotsi and Maripe 2014; Ghodsi, Grubler, and
long- and short-run dynamics for three import Stehrer 2016)5.
demand functions: total imports, food imports and
manufacturing imports in Trinidad and Tobago using Since the Global Financial Crisis, domestic economic
annual data between 1980 to 2019. The results of activity has slowed and net official reserves have
our model revealed that both in the long- and short- trended downwards from 2015. Notwithstanding
run, real income has a significant and positive impact this weaker economic outturn, imports have
on import demand. The results hold for all three remained relatively high, suggesting a downward
import demand functions. Based on the findings, stickiness in the demand for foreign produced goods.
there exists a long-run trade-off between economic Against this backdrop, this study employs variables,
growth and balance of payments improvements, namely, real income, terms of trade (relative price
that is, continuous economic and import growth indices between the United States and Trinidad
are likely to have a negative impact on the balance and Tobago)6, exchange rate, net official reserves
of payments in the long-run. Therefore, policies and import capacity, to investigate the determinants
should be geared towards managing the level and of Trinidad and Tobago’s import demand function
composition of imports. from 1980 to 2019. This article contributes to the
vast literature on this topic by incorporating the
impact of external policy variables on a developing
INTRODUCTION country’s import demand function, particularly for
Trinidad and Tobago.
The import demand function is a widely researched
area in the literature. Empirical studies have Trinidad and Tobago’s merchandise imports have
embarked on using the traditional version of the risen substantially over the last four decades,
import demand function which posits that real increasing almost two-fold to US$6,325.0 million
income and relative prices are primary determinants in 2019 from US$3,193.7 million in 1980,
of a country’s imports. It is hypothesised that growth primarily reflective of activity within the energy
in domestic income would result in an increase in sector. In particular, the movement in imports of
imports for both consumption and investment goods, mineral fuels and lubricants (SITC 3) explains a
which denotes a positive relationship. In contrast, significant percentage of this outturn. Within this
the effect of the relative price on the demand for category, imports reached US$3,322.8 million in
imports is expected to be negative, as consumers 2008 when West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude
substitute imports for domestic products when the oil prices surged to an average US$99.6 per barrel
price of imports increases (Arize and Osang, 2007)2. and the volume of crude oil imports amounted to
Over time, Alam and Ahmed, 2010 and Butts and 32.5 million barrels. Over the period 1980 to 2018,
Mitchell, 20123 have extended the works on this topic imports of energy products including crude oil,
by including other macroeconomic variables, such averaged approximately one fifth (21.1 per cent)
as the real effective exchange rate, foreign exchange of total imports (Chart 1). However, the closure of
a state-owned oil refinery in October 2018, which CHART 1:

resulted in the decline of energy-related imports SELECTED ECONOMIC INDICATORS
by more than half of its value by 2019, caused a
structural shift in the composition of Trinidad and Imports by Classification from 1980 to 2019
Tobago’s imports. 12,000.0
10,000.0
Notwithstanding the fall-off of imported crude
US$ Millions
oil for refining purposes, total imports remained 8,000.0
relatively high. Factors contributing to the downward 6,000.0

stickiness of imports include the nature of imports,
4,000.0
wage growth and the characteristics of domestic
economic activity. In 2019, capital goods, which is 2,000.0
also driven by the energy sector, accounted for 28.5 0.0

per cent of total imports while the manufacturing
1983
1992
1995
2001
2013
1989
2019
1998
1980
1986
2004
2010
2016
2007
sector contributed to just under 13.0 per cent of Food Mineral Fuels and Lubicants
Chemicals Manufactured Goods
total imports. The level of manufacturing goods Machinery Other
imports is attributable to the sector’s reliance on
imports of raw materials and other essential inputs Imports by Classification from 1980 to 2019
in the production process. Trends in the current 70,000.0
account balance and net official reserves exhibited
60,000.0
similar patterns to global energy commodity markets
over the reference period. Elevated energy prices 50,000.0
US$ Millions
boosted energy exports, resulting in the current 40,000.0
account recording consecutive surpluses from 30,000.0

1999 to 2015. However, depressed commodity 20,000.0
prices in 2016 contributed to a deficit of US$779.5
10,000.0
million. Similarly, net official reserves increased to
US$6,929.0 million at the end of 2019, up from 0.0
1983
1992
1995
2001
1989
2019
1998
1980
1986
2004
2010
2010
2016
2007
US$2,667.7 million at the end of 1980. Over the
review period, headline inflation was mainly driven Energy Non-Energy GDP
by food inflation. Of note, food inflation soared to
25.6 per cent in 2008, pushing headline inflation Current Account Balance from 1980 to 2019
to 12.0 per cent. However, core inflation - which
excludes the volatile food component - exhibited 20,000.0
a more stable trend over the reference period.

15,000.0
Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Trinidad and
US$ Millions
Tobago adopted a flexible exchange rate regime in 10,000.0

1993, which has generally exhibited a stable trend
from 1994 to 2019. 5,000.0
0.0
1983
1992
1995
2001
2013
1989
2019
1998
1980
1986
2004
2010
2016
2007
-5,000.0
Exports Imports Current Account Balance
Net Official Reserves from 1980 to 2019
14,000.0
12,000.0
10,000.0
US$ Millions
8,000.0
6,000.0
4,000.0
2,000.0
0.0
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
2,000.0
DATA AND METHODOLOGY RESULTS AND ANALYSIS
Three iterations of the Import Demand Function Analysis of the Impulse Response Functions
were estimated for Trinidad and Tobago – total (IRFs) were carried out to determine the
imports, food imports and manufacturing reaction of import demand in the three systems
imports, using the macroeconomic variables to innovations of the explanatory variables.
of: Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) The responses were further characterised by
as a proxy for real income, TT-US bi-lateral timeframe, that is, the short-run dynamics
exchange rate (XR), net official reserves (NOR), (defined here as three years) and the long-run
import capacity (IC)-which is a ratio of exports dynamics (beyond three years). Notably, there
to imports, terms of trade (TOT) – given by is a negligible response in total, manufacturing,
the ratio of the US consumer price index and and food imports demanded from shocks
TT retail price index, to determine the import to the explanatory variables in the first year.
demand (MD) for Trinidad and Tobago over the This implies that consumer demand for these
period 1980 to 2019. A log-linear specification commodities is not immediately influenced by
was used to infer elasticities on estimated changes in the explanatory variables. However,
coefficients. The general import demand as time elapses, the relationships become more
function used in the investigation for Trinidad pronounced, reflecting the law of demand,
and Tobago is written as: which posits that over an extended period of
LN_MD= f (LN_RGDP, LN_XR, LN_NOR, LN_ time, consumers can alter their preferences,
IC, LN_TOT) (1) thus changing their demand patterns.
Since the analysis seeks to ascertain the In the short-run, the factors having the strongest
dynamics in an import demand function for influence on total import demand, food and
Trinidad and Tobago, a Vector Autoregression manufacturing imports were real income,
(VAR) was the choice of model. Two of the import capacity and net official reserves.
three iterations of the import demand functions Various pieces of literature have hypothesised
– total imports and manufacturing imports, a linear positive relationship between income
were found to have long-run co-movements level and import demand, that is, an increase in
among its variables and as such a Vector Error disposable income results in an increase in the
Correction Model (VECM) was appropriate. demand for imports. The IRF shows that a one
The import demand functions estimated standard deviation shock to the growth of real
by the VECM – total and manufacturing – income has a positive effect on import demand
exhibited negative and statistically significant in the first year and the response trends upward
error correction terms (ECT) of 0.56 and to the third year, with an average increase of
0.82, respectively. The ECT is the speed of 0.1 percentage points over the short-run.
adjustment, which indicates that the short-run
dynamics of the variables converge to its long- The nexus between an economy’s level of
run equilibrium relatively quickly as 56.0 per exports and imports can be captured by
cent and 82.0 per cent of the deviations in the the proportion of exports that is required
short-run are corrected each year. Meanwhile, to facilitate the purchase of a single unit
the VAR model for the food import demand of imports. Futher, a positive correlation is
suggests only short-run dynamics exist among expected between import capacity and the
the variables. Based on economic theory and demand for imports. For Trinidad and Tobago,
empirical studies, it was hypothesised that import capacity exhibits an overall positive,
real income, net official reserves and import albeit weak, relationship with total, food and
capacity would yield a positive and significant manufacturing import demand, as there is only
effect on import demand, while the foreign a 0.01 percentage point increase in import
exchange rate and relative prices would yield demand over the short-run.
a negative and significant effect on import
demand.
Butts and Mitchell (2012) highlighted the made during the short-run. Moreover, growth
accumulation of net official reserves as a in an economy’s stock of foreign exchange
fundamental pillar in the macroeconomic reserves is anticipated to result in increased
toolkit of developing economies, as well as the import demand. This relationship is noted
economic role it plays in encouraging import over the long-run for total and manufacturing
demand. As expected, a positive shock to NOR import demand. On average, a one standard
resulted in upward movement to both total and deviation shock to net official reserves resulted
manufacturing import demand. Meanwhile, a in an increase of 0.04 per cent in total import
weak positive relationship between NOR and demand, while imports of manufactured
food imports was detected. products grew by 0.08 per cent.
Transitioning into the long-run, the main factors Over recent times, Trinidad and Tobago’s
influencing import demand were movements in flexible exchange rate system has been
real domestic income, import capacity and net categorised by the International Monetary
official reserves. Following the trend over the Fund (IMF) as a stabilised arrangement due to
short-run, income growth continued to be an the influence of interventions in the domestic
influencing factor in determining an individual’s foreign exchange market. Furthermore,
import demand patterns. Over the period 1980 movement in the exchange rate has been
to 2019, Trinidad and Tobago’s ratio of import signalled as a measure to reduce significant
demand to real income suggests an average real outflows from the stock of foreign currency
income elasticity of 1.5, thus indicating that a reserves. A depreciation of the domestic
1.0 per cent growth in real income brought currency vis-à-vis the US dollar, makes foreign
about a more than proportional increase goods relatively more expensive for domestic
in import demand. Meanwhile, the ratio of consumers, resulting in a decline in imports.
food and manufacturing import demand to However, results for Trinidad and Tobago are
income measured elasticities of 0.6 and 1.2, contrary to the conventional relationship, where
respectively. Notably, the positive relationship in all cases a positive shock to the exchange
can be attributed to the inclusion of capital rate resulted in growth, albeit minor, in import
goods imports. As an economy grows, further demand. For example, over the last ten years
imports of intermediate goods are necessary (2010-2019), Trinidad and Tobago’s import bill
to facilitate the development process and has grown by 3.0 per cent despite a 6.0 per
therefore more of these products would be cent depreciation of the domestic exchange
demanded. rate. This unique relationship can be further
explained by the components of Trinidad and
Consistent with economic theory and the short- Tobago’s import bill, which included imports
run results, the income capacity was found of crude oil for refining purposes coupled with
to have a positive relationship with import the consumption of capital goods which are
demand in the long-run for each iteration. necessary inputs in the production process.
Research on developing and oil-exporting
economies have shown that an economy’s To further investigate the dynamic interactions
value of import demand depends on its level of among the variables in the model, analysis of
export earnings and there also exists a positive the variance decomposition was carried out.
correlation between both variables (Butts and Total import demand was more influential in
Mitchell, 2012). An analysis of Trinidad and relation to other variables in the first year of the
Tobago’s trade data supports this argument, forecast, as approximately 78.0 per cent of its
which can be observed in the trend of both variance was explained by its own shock while
variables over time. the other variables explained the remaining
22.0 per cent. Overall, real income, net official
In terms of net official reserves, long-run reserves and import capacity are the most
results are consistent with the obervations influential factors in the model. Concerning
imports of food, the variance decomposition is the import scale should be skewed towards
suggests that food imports itself represented imports of strategic products that are necessary
the predominant source of variation within for Trinidad and Tobago’s economic growth and
the model, which creates an unconventional are unavailable in the domestic market, and
situation in supporting the reduction of development of domestic agriculture to ensure
the food import bill. Similarly, variance in self-sufficiency in this sector. Meanwhile,
manufacturing imports primarily responded to encouraging export promotion over the long-
its own innovations in the first year. However, run can help to facilitate the growth of foreign
by the end of the forecast period, real income exchange earnings, which can be narrowly
accounted for the largest portion of movement streamed towards the purchase of key
in the dependent variable. intermediate inputs in the production process.
In terms of the short-run, the implementation of
import restrictions for particular commodities
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS can reduce the size of the import bill while also
creating an additional quantitative monitor on
The purpose of this article was to examine the the volume of import flows.
dynamic nature of import demand in Trinidad
and Tobago while establishing its long- and
short-run relationships with specific explanatory
variables. This study tested the hypothesis
that import demand and real income, relative
prices, net official reserves, exchange rate and
exports as a capacity to import have a static
long-run relationship using cointegration,
vector autoregressive and error correction
methodologies. In the case of Trinidad and
Tobago analysing these relationships are
important for policy formulation.
The study concludes that domestic income has

a significant influence on the short- and long-
run import demand for food, manufacturing
and overall goods. This suggests the existence
of a possible long-run trade-off between
economic growth and balance of payments
improvements. In addition, the insensitivity
of imports to movements in the exchange
rate points to the potential ineffectiveness of
exchange rate policy, as any further exchange
rate depreciation will not have the desired
impact of curbing import demand.
Against the backdrop of a declining stock

of foreign exchange reserves and pressures
to depreciate the domestic currency,
recommendations to curb import demand over
the long-run include; cautious monitoring when
designing trade policy packages, optimisation
and calibration of the economy’s imports, that
NOTES
1 The authors are economists in the Research 7 The Import Demand Functions were
Department at the Central Bank of Trinidad disaggregated into Standard International
and Tobago. The views expressed here are Trade Classification (SITC) 1-digit categories-
those of the authors and not necessarily those Total Imports (SITC 0-9), Food imports (SITC
of the Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago. 0) and Manufacturing imports (SITC 6).
Please send comments to: lsonnylal@
central-bank.org.tt and/or abobb@central- 8 All the logged variables were found to be
bank.org.tt, kthompson@central-bank.org. stationary after first differencing I (1) with
tt. the exception of import capacity which was
I (0). The optimal lag length, using the Akaike
2 Arize, Augustine C., Thomas Osang. 2007. criterion (AIC), revealed one lag for all three
“Foreign Exchange Reserves and Import equations. The Johansen cointegration
Demand: Evidence from Latin America.” technique indicated the null hypothesis
The World Economy 30, no. 9: 1477-1489. of no cointegration was rejected at the
5 per cent level for the total imports and
3 Alam, Shaista, and Qazi Masood Ahmed. manufacturing imports. The stability of the
2010. “Exchange Rate Volatility and three models were confirmed via robustness
Pakistan’s Import demand: An Application checks; inverse AR roots, heteroskedasticity
of Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model.” test and serial correlation LM tests.
International Research Journal of Finance
and Economics ISSN 1450-2887, no. 48: 9 The US dollar is a vehicle currency and it is
7-22 and Butts, Hector C., and Ivor S. the most frequently used trading currency
Mitchell. 2012. “An Empirical Analysis of for Trinidad and Tobago.
Small Country Import Demand Function: A
Case of Guyana.” Problems and Perspectives 10 This is a useful statistical tool in determining
in Management 10, no. 1: 105-121. how much variability in a dependent
variable is lagged by its own variance,
4 Narayan, Seema, and Paresh Kumar while also providing information on which
Narayan. 2012. “An Empirical Analysis of independent variables are most influential
Fiji’s Import Demand Function.” Journal of in explaining the composition of the
Economic Studies 32, no. 2: 158-168. dependent variable over time.
5 Mogotsi, Imogen Bonolo, and Omogolo

Mighty Maripe. 2014. “Import Demand
Function and Possibility of Import
Substitution for Botswana.” International
Journal of Applied Business and Economic
Research 12, no. 3: 959-979 and Grubler,
Julia, Mahdi Ghodsi, and Robert Stehrer.
2016. “Import Demand Elasticities Revisited.
“Working Paper 132. The Vienna Institute
for International Economic Studies.
6 The US remains Trinidad and Tobago’s main

trading partner. In 2019, the US accounted
for 41.8 per cent of total imports.
Appendix Three
Calendar of Key
Economic Events
January - December 2020
CALENDAR OF KEY ECONOMIC EVENTS

JANUARY TO DECEMBER 2020
ENERGY SECTOR
01 February Phoenix Park Gas Processors Limited (PPGPL) acquired the natural gas liquids
marketing assets of Twin Eagle Liquids Marketing LLC, through its wholly
owned US subsidiary, Phoenix Park Energy Marketing LLC. Twin Eagle Liquids
Marketing LLC is a Houston, Texas, US-based company, engaged in the business
of marketing, trading and transporting natural gas liquids in Canada, US and
Mexico.
03 February The Prime Minister of Trinidad and Tobago announced that the Memorandum
of Understanding between Trinidad and Tobago and Venezuela to jointly exploit
10.0 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in the Loran-Manatee field, has been
rescinded, with both countries opting instead to develop it independently. US
sanctions on the Bolivarian Republic have led to the agreement being terminated.
05 February The Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries announced their receipt of a bonus
US$80.0 million on signing new Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs) with Shell
TT. The agreement covers Shell’s production-sharing contracts for its East Coast
Marine Area (ECMA) comprising Block 5a, Block 6, Block E and Block 5c and
North Coast Marine Area (NCMA) 2, in addition to its Colibri project comprising
NCMA 4 and Block 22. Shell TT is projected to spend in excess of US$1.0 billion
in development works over the period 2019-2021.
06 February Touchstone Exploration confirmed its Cascadura-1TST1 well in Ortoire is a

significant gas discovery. Average flowback rate during test periods were 5,180.0
barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), including 26.9 million cubic feet per day
of natural gas and 694.0 barrels per day of natural gas liquids. Touchstone has
an 80.0 per cent working interest in Cascadura, while Heritage Petroleum holds
20.0 per cent in this joint project.
11 February Shell TT has announced a Final Investment Decision (FID) on the development of
Block 5C (Barracuda) in the ECMA. Barracuda is a Greenfield gas development.
Gas from Barracuda is expected in 2021 and will supply both the domestic gas
and export markets.
17 February The Government of both Trinidad and Tobago and Barbados signed a unitisation
agreement that would allow both countries to carry out seismic exploration at
each other’s border, and jointly operate a producing reservoir of oil and/or gas if
found on the border of the two states.
16 March Shell TT announced a FID approving its Colibri project off the Northeast coast
of Trinidad. The two blocks – Block 22 and NCMA-4 – are held in partnership
with the Heritage Petroleum Company Ltd. Colibri is expected to add a total of
43,100.0 barrels of oil-equivalent per day or 250.0 million standard cubic feet
of gas production per day. The Shell-operated Colibri development is co-owned
with Heritage, which has a working interest of 10.0 per cent and 20.0 per cent
respectively, in Block 22 and NCMA-4.

ENERGY SECTOR continued
04 May Touchstone Exploration announced it signed a framework agreement for the sale
of natural gas and gas liquids produced from the Ortoire block, onshore Trinidad.
The agreement is signed with the National Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago
(NGC) and Heritage Petroleum Company Ltd. (Heritage Petroleum). Heritage
Petroleum and Touchstone are joint venture partners in the Ortoire Onshore
Block and have made gas discoveries in two wells: Coho and Cascadura. The
agreement aids in fostering a strategic partnership, assisting the development, sale
and purchase of natural gas and natural gas liquids produced from the Ortoire
Block.
21 July The NGC and BHP Petroleum (Trinidad) have completed negotiations of a Gas
Sales Agreement for the Ruby Field. The Ruby field is located in Block 3(a), off
the East coast of Trinidad, and is expected to be commissioned in the fourth
quarter of 2021.
09 September Energy giant BP Trinidad and Tobago (bpTT) was granted a 10-year extension
on 92 of its exploration and production licences in the Columbus Basin. The
Minister of Energy, Franklin Khan, announced the Licence Extension Agreement
between the Government of Trinidad and Tobago and bpTT and its co-licencees
including EOG Resources, Perenco, the NGC and Heritage Petroleum. The
licence extensions are for the Teak, Samaan and Poui Exploration and Production
licences as well as the East Mayaro Exploration and Production Licence. This
extension is expected to yield US$250.0 million in income to the State over the
next four years.
28 September Caribbean Gas Chemical Limited (CGCL) loaded its first cargo of methanol
(13,000 metric tons) as it began export of the commodity. This follows the
mechanical completion of its Methanol and Di-Methyl Ether (DME) Facility at
Union Industrial Estate (UIE), La Brea, on June 27,2020. CGCL is a joint venture
consortium comprising Mitsubishi Gas Chemical Company Inc., Mitsubishi
Corporation, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Engineering Ltd., NGC and Massy
Holdings Ltd.
14 October Touchstone Exploration Inc. announced a significant natural gas discovery at

the Chinook-1 exploration well on the Ortoire exploration block. At a depth of
10,039.0 feet, Chinook-1 is one of the deepest wells drilled onshore Trinidad
in almost a decade. Wireline logs indicate significant natural gas pay, totaling
approximately 589.0 net feet in three unique thrust sheets in the Herrera sands.
Additional natural gas pay of approximately 20.0 net feet was encountered in the
shallower Cruse formation.

ENERGY SECTOR continued
18 December The NGC signed a natural gas supply agreement with Primera Oil and Gas Limited,
a subsidiary of Canadian energy exploration company Touchstone Exploration.
Primera, acting on behalf of its joint venture partner Heritage Petroleum, will
supply gas from the Coho-1 field in the Ortoire Block. Touchstone has an 80.0
per cent working interest operator while Heritage Petroleum has a 20.0 per cent
working interest.
FINANCIAL LEGISLATION
29 January An Act to vary the appropriation of the sum the issue of which was authorised
by the Appropriation (Financial Year 2019) Act, 2018 and varied by the Finance
(Supplementary Appropriation) (Financial Year 2019) Act, 2019, was assented
on this date. This Act may be cited as the Finance (Variation of Appropriation)
(Financial Year 2019) Act, 2020. (Act No. 2 of 2020)
18 February An Act to amend the Insurance Act, 2018, was assented on this date. This Act
may be cited as the Insurance (Amendment) Act, 2020. (Act No. 3 of 2020)
26 March An Act to amend the Heritage and Stabilisation Fund Act, Chap. 70:09, the
Government Savings Bonds Act, Chap. 71:41 and the Value Added Tax Act, Chap.
75:06 was assented to on this date. This Act may be cited as the Miscellaneous
Provisions (Heritage and Stabilisation Fund, Government Savings Bonds and
Value Added Tax) Act, 2020. (Act No. 9 of 2020)
28 October An Act to provide for the service of Trinidad and Tobago for the financial year
ending on the 30th day of September, 2021 was assented on this date. This Act
may be cited as the Appropriation (Financial Year 2021) Act, 2020. (Act No. 24
of 2020)
18 December An Act to amend the Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters Act, Chap.
11:24, the Proceeds of Crime Act, Chap. 11:27, the Anti-Terrorism Act, Chap.
12:07, the Interception of Communications Act, Chap. 15:08, Financial
Intelligence Unit of Trinidad and Tobago Act, Chap. 72:01, the Income Tax Act,
Chap. 75:01, the Central Bank Act, Chap. 79:02, the Financial Institutions Act,
Chap. 79:09, the Companies Act, Chap. 81:01, the Securities Act, Chap. 83:02,
and the Non-Profit Organisations Act, No. 7 of 2019, was assented on this date.
This Act may be cited as the Miscellaneous Provisions (FATF Compliance) Act,
2020. (Act No. 25 of 2020)

CENTRAL BANKING
01 March The Mortgage Market Reference Rate as of March 1, 2020 remained unchanged
at 3.00 per cent.
17 March The Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago lowered the Repo rate by 150 basis
points to 3.50 per cent and reduced the primary reserve requirement on
commercial bank deposits by 300 basis points 14.0 per cent.
01 June The Mortgage Market Reference Rate as of June 1, 2020 remained unchanged at
3.00 per cent.
26 June The Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago maintained the Repo rate at 3.50 per
cent.
01 September The Mortgage Market Reference Rate as of September 1, 2020 remained

unchanged at 3.00 per cent.
25 September The Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago maintained the Repo rate at 3.50 per
cent.
01 December The Mortgage Market Reference Rate as of December 1, 2020 remained

unchanged at 3.00 per cent.
30 December The Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago maintained the Repo rate at 3.50 per
cent.
FINANCIAL SECTOR
8 January The World’s fourth largest insurance brokerage firm, Arthur J Gallagher and
Company, acquired a 60.0 per cent stake in Trinidad-based Caribbean insurance
broker, Risk Management Services Limited (RMS). Risk Management Services
provides property/casualty and employee benefits products and services to
enterprises in the manufacturing, oil and energy, and service industries.
26 March Standard and Poor’s Global Ratings (S&P) lowered Trinidad and Tobago’s
sovereign credit rating and its short-term foreign and local currency sovereign
credit ratings to BBB- and A-3, respectively, from BBB and A-2. S&P stated that
Trinidad and Tobago’s economic outlook is stable.
22 May Global rating agency, Moody’s, confirmed Trinidad and Tobago’s Ba1 credit rating
in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, unchanged from its last assessment in
2017. However, Moody’s changed the country’s outlook to negative.

FINANCIAL SECTOR continued
31 May Republic Financial Holdings Limited (RFHL) acquired Scotiabank’s operations

in the British Virgin Islands. This followed approvals from the Central Bank of
Trinidad and Tobago, and The Financial Services Commission of the British Virgin
Islands, as well as the execution of the General Banking Licence in the British
Virgin Islands.
02 July Scotiabank Trinidad and Tobago Ltd. (Scotiabank) announced the cancellation of
their distribution deal with Sagicor Financial Corporation Ltd. Both companies
have mutually agreed to discontinue the 20-year distribution agreement for
insurance products and solutions in Trinidad and Tobago.
02 November General Accident Insurance Company (Trinidad and Tobago) Ltd. (GenAc TT)
officially launched its rebranded operations in Trinidad and Tobago, following
the acquisition of local insurance company Motor One Insurance (Motor One) in
2019. GenAc Jamaica Ltd. purchased a majority stake in Motor One in October
2019. GenAc TT is bolstered through its parent company GenAc Jamaica Ltd.,
which is a member of the Musson Group, and owns 65.0 per cent of GenAc TT.
Motor One had over 20,000 direct motor insurance policies and a large branch
network.
GOVERNMENT TRANSACTIONS
05 March The Ministry of Finance received US$495,000 (TT$3.37M) via a grant provided
by the Corporación Andina de Fomento (CAF) – Development Bank of Latin
America. Minister of Finance, Mr.Colm Imbert, and Director Representative
of CAF, Mr. Gianpiero Leoncini, , signed the Non-Reimbursable Technical
Cooperation agreement. The grant money goes towards the creation of a Flood
Management Master Plan to address the nation’s recurrent challenges with
drainage and flooding.
22 June The Ministry of Finance achieved a successful US$500.0 million Republic of

Trinidad and Tobago International Bond Issue. The 10-year bond offer was
launched by Credit Suisse with an initial interest rate of 4.50 per cent.
17 August The Government of Trinidad and Tobago signed two loan agreements for a
combined total of US$150.0 million with the Inter-American Development Bank
(IDB) to improve housing conditions, invest in urban transformation and respond
to the impact of COVID-19. The first loan of US$50.0 million will support the
enhancement of living conditions for low-income households and investments in
urban spaces as part of a strategy to foster more sustainable development. The
second loan, valued at US$100.0 million, is a policy-based loan titled Programme
to Strengthen Fiscal Policy and Management in Response to the Health and
Economic Crisis Caused by COVID-19 in Trinidad and Tobago.

GOVERNMENT TRANSACTIONS continued
10 September The Government of Trinidad and Tobago announced its newest state company,
with its acquisition of CL Marine Ltd. and its subsidiaries, a commercial dry-
docking facility, located in the western coast of Chaguaramas. The company
has been renamed National Marine and Maintenance Services Company Ltd.
This acquisition is part of the Government’s diversification thrust, of which ship
building and ship repairs is a targeted area. An interim board of directors was
appointed.

2020 Annual Economic Survey 1

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

2020 Annual Economic Survey 1

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Description:

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

2020 Annual Economic Survey 1

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

CENTRAL BANK OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

ANNUAL ECONOMIC SURVEY 2020

© Copyright 2020 Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago

ANNUAL ECONOMIC SURVEY 2020

Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago

ANNUAL ECONOMIC SURVEY 2020

CHAPTER TWO – DOMESTIC ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

CHAPTER THREE – LABOUR MARKET

CHAPTER FOUR – PRICES

CHAPTER FIVE – FISCAL OPERATIONS

CHAPTER SIX – MONETARY AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS

CHAPTER SEVEN – CAPITAL MARKETS

CHAPTER EIGHT – INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND PAYMENTS

CHAPTER NINE – INTERNATIONAL AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

CHAPTER TEN – INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY MARKETS 49

TABLE OF CONTENTS CONTINUED ANNUAL ECONOMIC SURVEY 2020

CHARTS, FIGURES AND TABLES ON SELECTED ECONOMIC INDICATORS

TABLE OF CONTENTS CONTINUED ANNUAL ECONOMIC SURVEY 2020

APPENDIX ONE – ECONOMIC STATISTICS

APPENDIX TWO – FEATURE ARTICLE

APPENDIX THREE – CALENDAR OF KEY ECONOMIC EVENTS

CHARTS ON SELECT ECONOMIC INDICATORS

US$ Per mmbtu

Source: Central Statistical Office Source: Bloomberg

Labour Force (left axis)

Source: Central Statistical Office Source: Central Statistical Office

40.0 140,000.0 90.0

30.0 120,000.0 80.0

20.0 100,000.0 70.0

CHARTS ON SELECT ECONOMIC INDICATORS CONTINUED

CHARTS ON SELECT ECONOMIC INDICATORS CONTINUED

Liquidity Management Central Bank Policy Rate

Sep 2017: Repo rate maintained at 4.75 per cent.

Nov 2017: Repo rate maintained at 4.75 per cent.

Dec 2017: Repo rate maintained at 4.75 per cent.

Jan 2018: Repo rate maintained at 4.75 per cent.

Mar 2018: Repo rate maintained at 4.75 per cent.

Jun 2018: Repo rate increased to 5.00 per cent.

Sep 2018: Repo rate maintained at 5.00 per cent.

Dec 2018: Repo rate maintained at 5.00 per cent.

Mar 2019: Repo rate maintained at 5.00 per cent.

Jun 2019: Repo rate maintained at 5.00 per cent.

Sep 2019: Repo rate maintained at 5.00 per cent.

Dec 2019: Repo rate maintained at 5.00 per cent.

Mar 2020: Repo rate lowered to 3.50 per cent.

Jun 2020: Repo rate maintained at 3.50 per cent.

Sep 2020: Repo rate maintained at 3.50 per cent.

Dec 2020: Repo rate maintained at 3.50 per cent.

ANNUAL ECONOMIC SURVEY 2020

CHAPTER ONE – OVERVIEW OF ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN 2020 The pandemic also caused significant disruptions

ANNUAL ECONOMIC SURVEY 2020

ANNUAL ECONOMIC SURVEY 2020

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Energy Sector -9.7 0.5 -3.5 -4.5 n.a.

Inflation Rate (%)2

(Per Cent of GDP)

Overall Central Government Operations -5.3 -9.0 -3.6 -2.6r -11.2re

ANNUAL ECONOMIC SURVEY 2020