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An Introduction To Investment Appraisal: The Initial Outlay For That Investment

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An Introduction to Investment Appraisal

• Investment appraisal involves comparing the expected future cash flows of an investment with
the initial outlay for that investment

• A business may want to analyse


o How soon the investment will recoup the initial outlay
o How profitable the investment will be

• Before an investment can be appraised key data will need to be collected, including
o Sales forecasts
o Fixed and variable costs data
o Pricing information
o Borrowing costs

• The collection and analysis of this data is likely to take some time
o It requires significant experience to interpret the data appropriately before the
investment appraisal can take place

• Different methods are used to appraise the value of an investment, including:


o The simple payback period
o The average rate of return (ARR)
o The net present value of discounted cash flow

Simple Payback Period

• The payback period is a calculation of the amount of time it is expected an investment will take
to pay for itself
• Where net cash flows are expected to be constant over time the payback period can be
calculated using the formula

Worked example
1. Simple Payback Calculation
Gomez Carpets is considering an investment in a new storage facility at a cost of
£200,000. It expects additional net cash flow of £30,000 per year as a result of the
investment.

Calculate the Payback period for the investment. (3)

Step 1 - Divide the initial outlay by the additional expected net cash flow

(1 mark)

Step 2 - Convert the outcome to years and months


6 years

0.67 years = 8.04 months (1 mark)

Payback period = 6 years and 8 months (3 marks for the correct answer)

Worked example
2. Payback calculation for varying cash flow over time

Hammer and Son provides a household repairs service that has recently employed a
new handywoman who requires her own van. The new van will be purchased for
£32,000

The net cash flows are expected to vary over the five years following its purchase and
are shown in the table below.

Net cash Cumulative


Year
Flow (£) Cash Flow (£)

0 (32,000) (32,000)

1 14,000 (18,000)

2 10,000 (8,000)

3 6,000 (2,000)

4 3,000 1,000

5 2,000 3,000

Calculate the payback period for the van (4)

Step 1 - Identify the final year where the cumulative cash flow is negative

In this case the cumulative cash flow figure is -£2,000 at the end of Year 3

This is the remaining amount (outlay) outstanding. (1 mark)

Step 2 - Calculate the monthly net cash flow for the next year
£3,000 ÷ 12 (months) = £250 (1 mark)

Step 3 - Divide the remaining outlay outstanding by the monthly net cash flow

£2000 ÷ £250 = 8 months (1 mark)

Step 4 - Identify the payback period

In this case the Payback period is 3 years and 8 months (1 mark)

Benefits and Drawbacks of the Using the Payback Method

Benefits Drawbacks

• It is a simple • It provides no
method to insight into
calculate and the profitability of
understand investments

• It is particularly • Payback only


useful for considers the total
businesses length of time
where the cash to recover an
flow investment
management is
vital
• Neither the timing nor
the future value of
• Businesses cash inflows is
can identify the considered
point at which an
investment is
paid back • It may encourage
and contributing a short-
positively to termism approach
cash flow

• Potentially
lucrative investments
• It is also useful may be
where new dismissed as they
technology is take longer to pay
introduced back than alternatives
regularly

• Businesses
purchasing
equipment can
calculate
whether an
investment ‘pays
back’ before an
upgrade is
available

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