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Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College

CHINA AND STRATEGIC CULTURE


Author(s): Andrew Scobell
Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College (2002)
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.com/stable/resrep11270

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CHINA AND STRATEGIC CULTURE

Andrew Scobell

May 2002

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*****
The views expressed in this report are those of the author and do
not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department
of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. This
report is cleared for public release; distribution is unlimited.

*****
An earlier version of this monograph was presented to the “China’s
Use of Force” Conference organized by the Defense Intelligence Agency
(DIA). This monograph benefited from a research trip to Asia which was
partially funded by the DIA.

*****
Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should be
forwarded to: Director, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War
College, 122 Forbes Ave., Carlisle, PA 17013-5244. Copies of this report
may be obtained from the Publications Office by calling (717) 245-4133,
FAX (717) 245-3820, or via the Internet at Rita.Rummel@carlisle.
army.mil

*****
Most 1993, 1994, and all later Strategic Studies Institute (SSI)
monographs are available on the SSI Homepage for electronic
dissemination. SSI’s Homepage address is: http://www.carlisle.army.
mil/usassi/welcome.htm

*****
The Strategic Studies Institute publishes a monthly e-mail
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ISBN 1-58487-090-7

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FOREWORD

Culture influences the way strategists in a particular


country think about matters of war and peace. Culture is
especially influential in a country like China, with an
ancient civilization and strategic tradition dating back
thousands of years. The author of this monograph, Dr.
Andrew Scobell, examines the impact of strategic culture on
21st century China. He contends that the People’s Republic
of China’s security policies and its tendency to use
military force are influenced not only by elite
understandings of China’s own strategic tradition, but
also by their understandings of the strategic cultures of
other states. Gaining a fuller appreciation for how
Chinese strategists view the United States and Japan, our
key ally in the Asia-Pacific, will better enable us to assess
regional and global security issues.
The Strategic Studies Institute is pleased to publish
this monograph as a contribution to the public debate on
China’s strategic disposition.

DOUGLAS C. LOVELACE, JR.


Director
Strategic Studies Institute

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BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH OF THE AUTHOR

ANDREW SCOBELL joined the Strategic Studies Institute


(SSI) in August 1999 and is SSI’s specialist on Asia. He
taught at the University of Louisville, Kentucky, and
Rutgers University, New Jersey. Since 1988 Dr. Scobell has
published articles in such journals as Armed Forces and
Society, Asian Survey, China Quarterly, Comparative
Politics, Journal of Political and Military Sociology, and
Political Science Quarterly. Recent articles and
monographs have focused on China’s military
modernization, Asia-Pacific security, and Chinese
strategic culture. Dr. Scobell holds a Ph.D. in Political
Science from Columbia University.

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SUMMARY

China has been identified as a looming strategic


threat. Considerable attention has been given to China’s
assertive rhetoric and militant behavior. The author uses
the rubric of strategic culture to assess China’s strategic
disposition. Two dimensions are examined: the nature
and impact of China’s assessment of its own strategic
culture, and the nature and impact of China’s depictions
of the strategic cultures of Japan and the United States.
Beijing has been depicted as increasingly belligerent
over the past decade, a perception in direct conflict with
earlier images of China. Ancient China is usually portrayed
as possessing a weak martial tradition, a cultural
predisposition to seek nonviolent solutions to problems of
statecraft, and a defensive-mindedness, favoring sturdy
fortifications over expansionism and invasion.
The author contends that existing depictions of
China’s strategic culture are flawed. China’s strategic
disposition cannot accurately be characterized as either
pacifist or bellicose. Rather, the country has a dualistic
strategic culture. The two main strands are a Confucian-
Mencian one that is conflict averse and defensive minded;
and a Realpolitik one which favors military solutions and
is offensive oriented. Both strands are operative and both
influence and combine in dialectic fashion to form a
“Chinese Cult of Defense.” This cult paradoxically tends
to dispose Chinese leaders to pursue offensive military
operations as a primary alternative in pursuit of national
goals, while rationalizing these actions as being purely
defensive and last resort. This dualistic strategic culture
has been a constant, and China has not become more
bellicose or aggressive in recent years except to the
extent that the warfighting capabilities of the People’s
Liberation Army have improved or that military doctrine
has changed.

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The author also examines China’s images of Japanese
and American strategic cultures. Significantly, Chinese
strategists tend to depict China’s own strategic culture in
very positive terms and contrast it with what are seen as
the very negative images of Japan and the United States. As
viewed from Chinese eyes, Japan possesses an extremely
warped, violent, and militaristic strategic culture; while the
United States possesses an expansionist, offensive-minded,
conflict-prone strategic culture that is obsessed with
technology. The author concludes by outlining a number of
important recommendations for U.S. defense policy.

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CHINA AND STRATEGIC CULTURE

Strategic culture should be considered a significant


dimension in analyses of China’s use of force for two
reasons. First, the subject of national cultures has
become widely recognized as a key dimension in strategy,
including in the impact of culture on a country’s tendency
to use force.1 Indeed, the impact of culture is vital to
understanding China’s military and security affairs. The
contention that contemporary Chinese international
relations have been heavily influenced by an ancient and
enduring civilization is particularly prevalent.2
Second, scholars, analysts, and policymakers in the
People’s Republic of China (PRC) frequently assert that
past and present policy and behavior are conditioned by
a distinctive traditional Chinese philosophy of
international relations. One influential military thinker,
Lieutenant General Li Jijun, former vice president of the
Academy of Military Sciences, reasons that:

Culture is the root and foundation of strategy. Strategic


thinking, in the process of its evolutionary history, flows
into the mainstream of a country or a nation’s culture. Each
country or nation’s strategic culture cannot but bear the
imprint of cultural traditions, which in a subconscious and
complex way, prescribes and defines strategy making.3

Indeed, the author of the above words and many others in


the same Chinese elite community also perceive culture to
exert a substantial impact on the strategic behavior of other
countries.4
Furthermore, contemporary Chinese perceptions of
other states are strongly colored by China’s interpretations
of their assumed cultural proclivities. These cultural
images of other countries, particularly the images of the
strategic cultures of other countries, are influential as
China assesses threats and potential threats in the

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international environment. This is especially so where
Japan and the United States are concerned. Chinese images
of both countries are heavily colored by the cultural
baggage accumulated over more than 100 years of historical
memory of Chinese-Japanese and Chinese-U.S.
interactions.5 While there is a considerable amount
of literature on contemporary Chinese images of the
United States, there is significantly less in the way of such
studies on Chinese images of contemporary Japan. In each
case, however, there is no focused study of China’s
culturally-based images of that country’s strategic
tradition.6
This monoraph is divided into four sections. The first
explains the two main interpretations of Chinese strategic
culture, and the nature and impact of strategic culture on
China’s use of force. The second examines the Chinese
images of Japanese and U.S. strategic cultures. The third
analyzes the implications of Chinese strategic culture, and
the fourth offers recommendations for U.S. defense policy.

Definitions and Parameters.

I define strategic culture as the fundamental and


enduring assumptions about the role of war (both interstate
and intrastate) in human affairs and the efficacy of applying
force held by political and military elites in a country. 7
These assumptions will vary from country to country.
Also important are the perceptions prevalent among the
elite within one country regarding the nature of another
country’s strategic culture. The sum total of these
assumptions tends to result, for example, in a composite
image held by China of the United States. Borrowing from
Allen Whiting, I define the strategic cultural image to be
“the preconceived stereotype of the strategic disposition of
another nation, state, or people that is derived from a
selective interpretation of history, traditions, and
self-image.”8

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Chinese elites are not of one mind on either the nature
of their own strategic culture or on the images of those of
other countries. China’s self-image of its strategic culture
is essentially a Confucian one, comprising a widely-held
and hegemonic set of assumptions—although certainly
not universal.
However, China’s actual strategic culture is the result of
interplay between Confucian and Realpolitik strands. The
outcome is what I call a “Cult of Defense,” whereby Chinese
elites believe strongly that their country’s strategic
tradition is pacifist, nonexpansionist, and purely
defensive but at the same time able to justify virtually
any use of force—including offensive and preemptive
strikes—as defensive in nature.9
Chinese perceptions of the strategic cultures of other
states tend to be formed by military strategists and thus are
skewed towards negative images of Japan and the United
States.

Contrasting Depictions of China’s Use of Force.

Culture has long been considered a critical dimension in


China’s approach to strategy and warfare. While the term
“strategic culture” was not used until 1988,10
conventional thinking was that China’s Confucian
tradition was a key determining factor in Chinese
strategic thinking. Because of Confucianism, in this
interpretation China tends to favor harmony over conflict
and defense over offense.11 Other analysts, usually
focusing on Sun Zi’s Art of War, have stressed a Chinese
predisposition for stratagem over combat and
psychological and symbolic warfare over head-to-head
combat on the battlefield.12 At the very least, these
interpretations of Confucius and Sun Zi created the image
of a China whose use of force is cautious and restrained.13
More recently, analysts have argued that China’s leaders
are actually influenced by a realpolitik (or parabellum)
strand of strategic culture.14 According this

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interpretation, the elite has been and continues to be quite
willing to use force.
Both major interpretations of China’s strategic tradition
(Confucius/Sun Zi and Realpolitik) tend to assume its
strategic culture as monistic and make no attempt to link
it to domestic policy. It is a mistake to assume that a
country’s strategic culture can be subsumed within a
single tradition and focussed exclusively on interstate
violence. Indeed, it is likely that multiple strands of
strategic culture exist. Ignoring trends in intrastate and
societal violence risks overlooking diverse and important
values and beliefs about the use of force and violence.15

A CHINESE CULT OF DEFENSE

Two dominant strands of Chinese strategic culture—a


Confucius/Sun Zi one and a Reapolitik one exist side-
by-side. Both of these are operative, and the interaction
between the two strands produces a distinctive strategic
culture: what I have dubbed the “Chinese Cult of
Defense.”16 Most Chinese strategic thinkers believe that
Chinese strategic culture is pacifistic, defensive-minded, and
nonexpansionist. However, at least in the contemporary
era, these sincerely held beliefs are essentially negated, or
rather twisted by its assumptions that any war China fights
is just and any military action is defensive, even when it is
offensive in nature. Two further assumptions reinforce this:
that threats to China’s national security are very real and
domestic threats are as dangerous as foreign threats, and
that national unification is a traditional Chinese core
strategic cultural value. The combined effect of these beliefs
and assumptions is paradoxical: while most of China’s
leaders, analysts, and researchers believe profoundly that
the legacy of Chinese civilization is fundamentally pacifist,
they are nevertheless predisposed to deploy force when
confronting crises.
The Chinese are particularly smitten with what they
view as China’s special gifts to the theory and practice of

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statecraft and international relations.17 While the leaders of
most countries tend to believe they use military power in
a strictly defensive manner,18 this cluster of beliefs seems
to be particularly inviolable among the Chinese. 19 Such
beliefs are so prevalent among Chinese elites that it is
rare to find civilian and military leaders who do not hold
some or all of them.20 Each of the three “Confucian”
elements of Chinese strategic culture can be highlighted
with reference to a phrase or saying.

“Peace is Precious.”

A deeply-held belief in elite circles is that China


possesses a pacifist strategic culture. Certainly majorities
of people in most countries, including the United States, say
they love peace—indeed it seems a near universal human
desire. What is striking in the case of China, however, is the
extreme degree to which this is stressed—to the extent that
Chinese civilization is viewed as being uniquely pacifist,
totally distinct from other strategic traditions in the
world. One of the most recent official articulations of this
appears in China’s 1998 Defense White Paper:

The defensive nature of China’s national defense policy . . .


springs from the country’s historical and cultural traditions.
China is a country with 5,000 years of civilization, and a
peace-loving tradition. Ancient Chinese thinkers advocated
“associating with benevolent gentlemen and befriending good
neighbors,” which shows that throughout history the Chinese
people have longed for peace in the world and for relations of
friendship with the people of other countries.21

Numerous Chinese leaders and researchers in the PRC


contend that the Chinese people value peace. In 1995,
Admiral Liu Huaqing, then a Vice Chair of the Central
Military Commission, told a pro-Communist Hong Kong
newspaper:

China has consistently pursued a foreign policy of peace


and insists that various countries should, in line with the
charter of the United Nations and the Five Principles of
Peaceful

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Coexistence . . . maintain a peaceful international environment
and that disputes between countries should be settled through
negotiations.22

Military researchers trace this preference for peace and


harmony back in history. According to the General Xing
Shizhong, Commandant of the National Defense
University:

The Chinese people have always dearly loved peace This


historical tradition and national psychology have a profound
influence on national defense objectives and strategic policies
of the new socialist China.23

According to Li Jijun, former Deputy Director of the


Academy of Military Sciences:

China’s ancient strategic culture is rooted in the philosophical


idea of “unity between man and nature” [tian ren he yi],
which pursues overall harmony between man and nature and
harmony among men.24

Researchers also frequently mention the Confucian saying:


“peace is precious” (he wei gui).25
In more recent times, leaders and researchers stress
that China pursues peaceful solutions rather than violent
ones. Chinese civilian and military leaders repeatedly
stress China’s adherence to the “Five Principles of Peaceful
Coexistence” as Liu Huaqing does in the above quote.26
According to one civilian scholar, the ancient principle of
“trying peaceful means before resorting to force” (xianli
houbing) has been a major influence on post-1949 China.
Thus, while the “leaders of Mao’s generation were willing to
use force to serve China’s security, and more broadly,
foreign policy goals whenever necessary in most cases,
China sent strong warnings or protests or engaged in
negotiations” prior to employing armed force.27 In a
discussion of the military thought of Deng Xiaoping, two
scholars observed:

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For many years we employed the thinking that, in whatever
method we adopt to solve a problem, we should not use the
means of war [but rather] peaceful means.28

And Deng felt it important to stress that one of


China’s three main missions for the 1980s was supporting
world peace.29 Beijing’s policy on reunification with
Taiwan regularly is cited to bolster this assertion. China’s
preferred means of unifying since 1979 is by nonmilitary
means.30 It is true that under Deng, China’s policy altered
dramatically from liberation by force to peaceful
unification. But it is also important to note that the change
is more tactical than strategic. Indeed, Beijing has refused
to renounce the use of force.31

“Never Seek Hegemony.”

A second deeply-held belief is that China has never been


an aggressive or expansionist state. According to many
leaders and researchers, China has never fought an
aggressive war throughout its long history. And China has
not threatened other countries. In post-1949 China, this has
taken the form of constant pronouncements of the fact that
“China will never seek hegemony.” 32 Senior soldier Liu
Huaqing told a Hong Kong interviewer in 1995:

China is opposed to the use of force and to threatening


with force China is against hegemonism and power
politics in
any form ......China does not seek hegemony now, nor will it
ever do so in the future.33

And Deng Xiaoping asserted in 1980 that one of the


main tasks for the decade of supporting peace was
intimately linked to “opposing hegemony” [fandui
baquanzhuyi].34 Of course, at the time, hegemony was
code word for the Soviet Union. Since the end of the Cold
War, it has come to mean
U.S. domination. But the term hegemony (ba) has a deeper
meaning in Chinese political thought. Badao or “rule by
force” has extremely negative connotations in contrast to
wangdao or “kingly way” or “benevolent rule.”35

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According to many Chinese analysts, when China goes to
war, it does so only in “self-defense.” These analysts
assert that virtually all of the wars China has fought have
been waged to protect itself from external threats or to
unify the country. One prominent Chinese military scholar
insists that virtually all of the approximately 3,700 to
4,000 wars China has fought in more than 4,000 years of
dynasties (ending with the collapse of the Qing in 1911)
have been civil wars or wars to unify the country. And all
of the eight “military actions” since 1949, the scholar
asserts, have been waged in “self-defense.”36 When
Chinese forces have ventured abroad, they have done so
for a limited time and for nonexpansionist purposes.
According to one analyst:

The facts are: There are no records showing China’s invasion of


other countries or that China stations any soldiers abroad.37

Researchers regularly cite Mao’s statement: “We [China] do


not desire one inch of foreign soil.”38
Examples often cited to support this interpretation
include the famous voyages of Ming dynasty admiral Zheng
He. Chinese researchers emphasize these expeditions were
nonmilitary, and no attempt was made by the Chinese
armada to conquer or colonize the lands it visited. The
imperial eunuch’s travels to East Africa and South Asia
seem to have been purely voyages of exploration. According
to several scholars, unlike Western adventurers such as
Christopher Columbus and Vasco Da Gama, Zheng did not
attempt to establish colonies or use force against peoples
with whom he came in contact.39

“If Someone Doesn’t Attack Us, We Won’t Attack


Them.”

The third central tenet of this cult is that China


possesses a purely defensive strategic culture. According to
Li Jijun: “The Chinese are a defensive-minded people.” 40
The classic illustration of this tendency regularly cited by
Chinese scholars is, not surprisingly, the Great Wall.

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According to Li: “China’s Great Wall has always been a
symbol of a defense, not the symbol of a national
boundary.”41 In the 1990s, some Chinese researchers sought
to validate this point by citing Western scholarship, notably
the work of John Fairbank and Mark Mancall. 42 They also
seek to make their case by drawing a direct comparison
between Western and Chinese strategic traditions.
According to Major General Yao Youzhi, Director of the
Department of Strategic Studies at the Academy of Military
Sciences, China’s military tradition places “complete
stress on a defensive stance” whereas, in contrast,
Western military tradition “emphasizes offense.”43
Another example of the defensive nature of China’s
strategic posture is the “No First Use” pledge regarding
nuclear weapons.44 Chinese officials also point to the
military reforms China has undertaken over the past 2
decades as proof of China’ purely defensive stance. Liu
Huaqing said in 1995:

As is known to all, China possesses a strategy of active


defense, and cut its troops by 1 million several years ago,
something no other country has thus far achieved. Our
present military strength is of a defensive nature and the
Chinese Government strictly limits defensive expenditure to
the minimum level necessary to ensure national security.45

Perhaps the most commonly touted evidence is Mao’s


admonition: “If someone doesn’t attack us, we won’t attack
them; however if someone does attack us, we will definitely
[counter] attack” [Ren bu fan wo, wo bu fan ren; ren fan wo,
wo bi fan ren].46 This quote appears in China’s 1998 Defense
White Paper. The late Marshal Xu Xiangqian also
mentioned it in practically the same breath as he discussed
Vietnam’s invasion and occupation of Cambodia during a
1980 interview.47 Significantly, China’s largest military
conflict in the post-Mao era—an attack against Vietnam
in February 1979—was triggered by Vietnam’s invasion of
Cambodia. Although it was China that invaded Vietnam,
Beijing officially labeled this war a “self-defensive

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counterattack” [ziwei huanji]. According to two military
thinkers: “[A] strategic counterattack implies a strategic
offensive.” The strategists continued:

the February 1979 self-defense counterattack against Vietnam,


from the military operational standpoint, offensive actions were
employed. Nevertheless, the essence of this kind of offense was
a self-defense counterattack.48

The same logic applied to China’s brief but bloody


border wars with India in 1962 and with the Soviet Union in
1969. Both conflicts are labeled “self-defense counter-
attacks” [ziwei fanji].49

GUIDING PRINCIPLES FOR EXTERNAL


SECURITY

Counteracting these three core elements are four key


strategic constants that justify the external use of military
force. The concepts of just war, the value placed on national
unification, the principle of active defense, and high
threat sensitivity in practice negate the pacifying effects
of the above core elements.

Contemporary Chinese Just War Theory.

Considerable attention by Chinese strategic analysts is


given to the concept of just war. Authors tend to stress that
Chinese thinking about just or righteous war [yizhan] dates
back thousands of years.50 The principle of just war seems
to be a crucial element of China’s traditional approach to
war, in the view of many contemporary military
researchers.51 Indeed it is ancient: Confucius adopted the
concept, and Mao later absorbed it.52
The distinction is simple: just wars are good wars, and
unjust wars are bad ones. Just wars are those fought by
oppressed groups against oppressors; unjust wars are ones
waged by oppressors against the oppressed. In
contemporary Chinese thinking, China long has been a

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weak, oppressed country fighting against powerful
imperialist oppressors. Thus for many Chinese, any war
fought by their country is by definition a just conflict—even
a war in which China strikes first. 53 This might include any
war fought to “restore or protect national territory or to
maintain national prestige.”54 The 1979 border war China
fought with Vietnam is viewed as a just conflict.55
Needless to say, virtually any war fought by a hegemonic
power such as United States is an unjust war.

National Unification.

National unification is a core value in China’s


national security calculus on which no compromise is
possible. It is an immutable principle in part because of
China’s history of division and inability to stop exploitation
and oppression by foreign powers. But it is also an
emotional and unwavering public stand precisely because
the leadership of the PRC seems to lack any other
inviolable principles.56 According to Li Jijun:

The most important strategic legacy of the Chinese nation is


the awareness of identification with the concept of unification,
and this is where lies the secret for the immortality of . . .
Chinese civilization... [s]eeking unification... [is] the soul of .
. . Chinese military strategy endowed by . . . Chinese
civilization.57

According to another analyst, the “principle of


unification”: “hoping for unification, defending unification
is a dimension of the Chinese people’s . . . thought culture
and is a special feature of its strategic thought.”58

Threat Perceptions.

China’s political and military leaders see threats


everywhere. The full extent of the siege mentality of China’s
leaders is not always appreciated. This siege mentality
results in elites viewing the foreign as well as domestic
environments as treacherous landscapes filled with threats

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and conspiracies. 59 The current campaign against
corruption in China and the crackdown on the Falungong
Sect suggest the depth of the regime’s fear of domestic
threats.60
This mindset may explain the need of the Chinese
authorities during the Maoist era to come up with the
seemingly innocuous phrase, “China has friends all over the
world.”61 By the same token, one would expect that China
had also at least some enemies in the world. Indeed, one
is tempted to conclude that the slogan itself was prompted
by Chinese insecurities. If a country has friendly states
around the world, why is it necessary to recite this ad
nauseum? And the reality was in the late Maoist era that
China actually had few staunch friends: the handful that
come to mind are Albania, North Korea, and Pakistan.
The fact of the matter is that Maoist China believed itself
surrounded by enemies. This was true of Deng’s China,
and also holds true for Jiang Zemin’s China.

Active Defense.

The strategic principle of active defense is key to Chinese


strategic thinkers. Most thinkers believe this is of central
importance to Chinese strategy. According to the PLA’s
officer handbook, “All military experts, ancient and
contemporary, Chinese and foreign, recognize the
importance of active defense.”62 The tendency is for
researchers and policymakers to broadly define defense as
virtually anything, including a preemptive strike!
Successive conflicts, including the 1962 border war with
India, are labeled “self-defense wars” or “self-defense
counterattacks” [ziwei zhanzheng, ziwei fanjizhan or ziwei
huanjizhan].63
The idea of “active defense” (jiji fangyu) is a relatively
recent concept in Chinese strategic thought. It is an idea
that crops up frequently in spoken and written material
by Chinese strategic thinkers—it is mentioned in the 1995
interview with Liu quoted above, for example. While at least

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one scholar dismisses active defense as mere propaganda, 64
the strategy appears to have real significance. Indeed it has
been a key guiding principle in Mao’s day, in Deng’s time,
and remains important at the dawn of the 21st century.
Indeed, it figures prominently in China’s 1998 Defense
White Paper.
According to Deng Xiaoping:
active defense is not merely defense per se, but includes
defensive offensives. Active defense includes our going out, so
that if we are attacked we will certainly counter attack.65

Senior Colonel Wang Naiming explains:


[active defense] . . . emphasizes that the nature of our military
strategy is defensive, but also active in requirements. It
requires the organic integration of offense and defense, and
achieving the strategic goal of defense by active offense; when
the conditions are ripe, the strategic defense should be led
[sic] to counterattack and offense.66

The “organic integration” between offense and defense


is very much a part of the concept of “absolute flexibility”
[quanbian] highlighted by Iain Johnston.67 In a real sense
then, the line between offense and defense is blurred. In
the final analysis: “Active defense strategy does not
acknowledge the difference . . . between defense and
offense.”68 In fact, according to a researcher at the Academy
of Military Sciences, active defense does not rule out a
first strike:

Our strategic principle of “striking only after the enemy has


struck” certainly does not exclude sudden “first strikes” in
campaign battles or counterattacks in self-defense into enemy
territory.69

In sum, the impact of the Cult of Defense is a


predisposition by Chinese elites to opt for force because
they perceive its use by China as always defensive in
nature.

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But the impact of strategic culture does not end here.
The impact on China’s elites is two-fold. First, the
strategic culture of their own country (articulated above)
affects how they think and act. What is also influential is
the way in which these same elites perceive the strategic
culture of major powers viewed as rivals.

STRATEGIC CULTURE IMAGES OF JAPAN AND


THE UNITED STATES

Chinese threat perceptions of the United States and


Japan are heavily influenced by the intimate involvement of
both with the prime objective of China’s unification
policy: the island of Taiwan. The United States strongly
supported the Kuomintang (KMT) regime led by Chiang
Kai-shek during World War II when it was based on the
Chinese mainland. Following the KMT collapse on the
mainland and its relocation to Taiwan, the Truman
administration was ready to cut its ties with Chiang.
However, the outbreak of the Korean War prompted
Washington to come to the defense of the KMT regime in
Taipei. In a series of crises in the Taiwan Strait, it has
stood by the KMT government. It has also, in China’s
view, actively encouraged Taiwanese leaders to pursue
independence (see below). Japan’s 50-year occupation of
the island (1895-1945) and the continued contacts
between Japanese politicians and their Taiwanese
counterparts underline Tokyo’s link to Taipei. The strong
ties that former Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui had with
Japan reinforced the connection. Lee speaks good Japanese,
and it was in an interview with a Japanese newspaper
that, by Beijing’s reckoning, Lee first revealed his scheme to
turn Taiwan down the road of independence.70

Japan: A Mutant Ninja Strategic Culture.

There is a “duality” to Chinese views of Japan. On the


one hand, there is much admiration and appreciation for
the economic benefits Japan offers to China. Particularly
in the late 1970s and 1980s, Chinese leaders were very
interested

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in learning from Japan.71 This even included the PLA, as it
appears that the PLA was looking at militaries around the
world in search of an appropriate model to emulate. 72 In
more recent years, however, the PLA appears to view
military-to-military ties with the Japanese Self Defense
Force (SDF) through more of a negative strategic culture
lens. The PLA has resisted efforts to build regular ties
with the SDF out of suspicions of Japan and the “implied
acceptance of Japan’s forces as a legitimate national army”
that such relations would carry with it.73
For many Chinese strategists, central to understanding
the warped strategic culture of Japan is “Bushido”
(wushidao in Chinese) or “way of the warrior.”74
According to Li Jijun, the “rather primitive” [bijiao
yuanshi] religion of Shintoism and Bushido combine to
produce a “bloody thirsty” [shisha] and “barbaric”
[yeman] strategic culture. “In essence, bushido is the
inhumane ethical outlook of conquering warriors and
exaltation of slaughter ”75 Li
then asks: ”how can one explain Japan’s wartime
atrocities in China?" “The fundamental answer,” he
writes, “can only be found in its [Japan’s] national policies
[guojia zhengce] and strategic culture [zhanlue
wenhua].”76
On the one hand, Japan is seen as a modernized and
wealthy, high tech, advanced capitalist state. On the other,
however, Japan is considered a country without a deep
and/or vibrant philosophical tradition.77 It is the example
used to provide the stark contrast to the pacifistic,
nonmilitarist culture of China. Japan is, in the words of Li
Jijun, an “inbred [Japanese] freak” [ziwo peiyu guitai]. He
also believes there is “no capacity [within Japan] for
national introspection” [buihui fanxing de minzu],
confession, and redemptive healing.78
China refuses to accept at face value the pacifist leaf
that Japan has turned since the U.S. occupation after World
War
II. This is nurtured not just by the existence of a
substantial and well-equipped SDF, but also by paranoia
of Chinese leaders combined with memories of
Japanese invasion,

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occupation, and associated atrocities and violence, most
infamously the Nanjing massacre of 1937. Many Chinese
are convinced that Japan will continue to upgrade
militarily despite its “Peace Constitution.” They are also
fearful of a revival of militarism and ultra-nationalism.79
One Chinese analyst speaking in the mid-1980s attributed
his concern to the “aggressive Japanese ‘national
character’.”80 Other researchers commented on the
“arrogance” and “cunning” of the Japanese.81 The modicum
of support in the 1980s among Chinese elites for a robust
Japanese defense and close Japanese-American alliance
appears to have vanished with the end of the Cold War.82

The United States: A Star Wars Strategic Culture.

Just as with Chinese images of Japan, there is a duality


of Chinese views of the United States. On the one hand, the
United States is seen as a model; on the other, the United
States is derided as threat. As David Shambaugh notes, a
dominant theme in China’s America watchers across the
20th century was “ambivalence.”83
Today, on the threshold of the 21st century, many
Chinese strategic thinkers view the United States as the
primary threat to China. 84 The United States is not so much
a direct military threat as a broader security threat,
because of the perception that the United States is trying to
contain China and undermine China through “peaceful
evolution” and prevent unification with Taiwan. The view is
particularly prevalent in the PLA.85 According to one group
of military researchers, “Since the end of the Cold War,
Taiwan has increasingly been used by the United States as
an extremely important chess piece to contain China.”86
General Zhang Wannian, Vice Chairman of the Central
Military Commission in an emotionally charged address to
senior PLA leaders in mid-May 1999—in the aftermath of
the Belgrade bombing—reportedly claimed that “U.S.
hegemonism is public enemy number one of the PLA.”87

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This perception is based on the fact that Washington
is the sole global superpower, the troubled history of
bilateral relations, U.S. national security objectives,
and an interpretation of U.S. strategic culture. Certainly
U.S. hegemony and the contentious history of U.S.-China
relations are important factors in and of themselves. And
official U.S. foreign policy pronouncements reinforce the
belief in an American threat. But this is all compounded
by Chinese interpretations of U.S. strategic culture.
American strategic culture tends to be subsumed within
the broader category of a widely assumed “Western”
[Xifang] way of war. This Occidental strategic culture is
depicted as expansionist and realist in direct contrast to
China’s own pacific and principled tradition. According to
one researcher, the West emphasizes “military means to
achieve political objectives of geographic and political
expansion.” In comparison, “China [has] a defensive
military tradition.”88 Indeed the “vast majority of Western
national [strategic] cultural traditions emphasize
obtaining “material benefits” [shiji liyi] instead of “ethical
thinking.”89 In fact, it is not uncommon for Chinese
strategists to insist that Westerners have “no ethical
principles.”90 According to one military scholar, China
possesses a “continental culture” that stresses “moral
self-cultivation,” while most Western countries have
“maritime cultures” that stress “courage, strength, and
technology.” Western countries tend to view war with an
adventurous and “romantic attitude.”91
Core features of U.S. strategic culture in Chinese eyes
are expansionism and hegemonism. The United States,
according to Li Jijun, has “greatly expanded its territory
through several wars . . . and expanded its interests
and influence throughout the world through two world
wars and the Cold War.” The U.S. strategic culture is
“highly offensive oriented” [fuyu jingongxing].92 In the view
of many Chinese analysts, the United States “tries to force
other countries to accept its will through political and
economic

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measures.” In short, the United States is acting like a
hegemon in the Chinese view.93
Another element of American strategic culture is what
might be dubbed cultural or ideological hegemonism that
“makes promotion of its own values a major part of its
global strategy.”94 The flip side of this element is a fervent
anti-communism in the United States that most Chinese
analysts believe persists in the post-Cold War era. Many
Chinese analysts puzzled over the logic behind U.S.
intervention in Kosovo: what possible strategic interests
could Washington have in this area? Beijing analysts
concluded the intervention was based on U.S. opposition to
a communist regime in Belgrade.95
According to many Chinese strategic thinkers, the U.S.
defense elite worships technology. The U.S. military seeks
to overcome all challenges through advances in
technology.96 This is typified by President Ronald Reagan’s
belief that American ingenuity would develop space age
or “Star Wars” technology to enable the United States to
protect itself from Soviet missile attack. More recently,
researchers in China see the worship of technology evident
in the appeal of missile defense proposals and the use of
“stand off” technology which gives U.S. forces the capacity
to wage war at a distance. The latter enables the military
to avoid face-to-face combat and greatly reduces the
potential for casualties. According to one Chinese analyst
writing in the official People’s Daily in June 1999, the
United States seized the opportunity presented by
Kosovo for experimental usage of “high-tech weapons
to attack . . . civilian facilities . . . [and] treat innocent and
peaceful civilians as live targets.”97
Another key feature of this cultural approach is the
American predilection for “strategic misdirection [zhanlue
wudao].”98 This is used to refer to the feints and thrusts
aimed at sending the opponent the wrong way. According
to Li Jijun, during the Reagan and George Bush
administrations, the United States used this to great
effect

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against the Soviet Union and against Iraq. Star Wars (or
the Strategic Defense Initiative) is viewed primarily as a
ruse—Washington never intended to deliver, but alarm
over it prompted the Soviets to increase spending on
defense that, in turn, contributed to the eventual collapse
of the Soviet regime. Li Jijun argues that the United
States deliberately led Sadam Hussein to believe that there
would be no American intervention in the event Iraq
invaded another state.
The outcome of this characterization of U.S. strategic
culture is the suspicion and indeed assumption of many
analysts in China that the United States is intent on
pursuing a similar tack with China. For example, most
Chinese analysts were very skeptical of the United States
“intelligence failures” in the Indian nuclear tests of May
1998 and the Belgrade embassy bombing a year later. Many
were convinced that both were devious plots to throw
China off balance and refused to believe the official
explanations offered by the U.S. Government. 99 After all,
Washington’s goal is assumed to be the destruction or
dismemberment of China.
Chinese analysts, however, identify some prime
weaknesses in American strategic culture. One flaw is
inconsistency. This is the result of several factors. A number
of Chinese analysts conclude that U.S. administrations
flip-flop between realism and liberalism. 100 This contributes
to a lack of long-term strategic vision. An important
factor in the view of one thinker is the fact that “public
opinion and national aspirations” are “important factors”
in the formulation of U.S. “foreign and domestic policies,
and military strategy.” In short, “national attitudes
toward war are directly linked to the outcome of
strategy.” Because public opinion, and to a lesser extent
national aspirations, fluctuate, it is very difficult for the
United States to maintain consistent policies and take a
long-term view. A prime example in the analyst’s view
was the U.S. decision first to intervene in Somalia and
then, in a sudden reversal of policy, to pull out of
Somalia. Clinton’s “new

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interventionism” collapsed under adverse public reaction to
U.S. fatalities on the ground.101
While the technological edge that the United States
enjoys appears daunting, several analysts consider this
reliance on technology to resolve all problems as an
Achilles’ heel. The U.S. military, for example, will find it
difficult to keep up with rapidly changing technology for a
number of reasons. First, there are significant political
constraints: the cost in an era of declining defense budgets
and interservice rivalry in the vicious competition for
control over limited resources. Second, some analysts
argue, the technological systems are so complex that they
are difficult to operate and integrate within a larger system
of systems. Third, Chinese analysts assert, high tech systems
are vulnerable to disabling from external attack.102 Fourth,
U.S. arrogance inhibits the development of necessary
innovations and the spread of technology will enable other
states to acquire and utilize similar technology relatively
quickly.103
A final weakness is a lack of understanding about
the history and cultures of the rest of the world. Li Jijun
quotes approvingly the judgement of another Chinese
strategic thinker: “almost all U.S. politicians
(strategists) have no sense of history at all.”104 While
there is a deep admiration for realists (and friends of
China) with this outlook such as Zbigniew Brzezinski,
Henry Kissinger, and the late Richard Nixon, who are seen
as the exception to the rule, most U.S. leaders are
viewed more disdainfully.105

Analysis.

China’s dominant self-image (Confucian strategic


culture) and its images of other states will be influential in
how China fights and whom it prepares to confront. China’s
civil and military elites perceive China’s strategic culture as
pacific, anti-hegemonic, and purely defensive in nature.
This self-image belies the nature of China’s actual strategic
culture—the outcome of a dialectic produced by two
strands

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of strategic culture: Confucian and Realpolitik. The value of
strategic culture in discerning patterns in China’s use of
force lies not only in identifying the nature of, and
explaining the impact of, China’s actual strategic culture.
Strategic culture can also be used to understand how China
perceives the strategic traditions of other states and uses
these assumptions/beliefs to formulate threat assessments.
China’s Use of Force. China will use force quite readily,
always insisting it is defensive in nature. The Cult of
Defense articulated above reveals a cultural tendency in
China to, on the one hand, see itself as a pacific,
defensive-minded civilization, while on the other, defining
just war and active defense in ways that actually predispose
China to use force. Chinese elites also consider national
unification as a core principle and, within that, the PLA sees
itself shouldering a sacred trust—primary responsibility for
returning Taiwan to the motherland.106 The Chinese
leadership also assumes that threats surround China and
anti-China conspiracies abound.
The PRC leadership will continue to deploy armed forces
to confront domestic challenges and counter perceived
international threats. Domestically, the People’s Armed
Police will continue to serve as frontline troops to confront
independent-minded ethnic minorities, disgruntled
workers, and peasants. But the PLA is the ultimate
guarantor of internal security, as the events of June 1989
revealed. At China’s borders and beyond, the air, sea, and
land services of the PLA will engage the militaries of other
states perceived as hostile to the Chinese state.
Current Chinese Threat Perceptions. As the United
States reassesses the security environment in Northeast
Asia in the early 21st century, it is important to gain an
appreciation for and understanding of Chinese threat
perceptions. The Chinese leadership views the key
enduring external threats to China as emanating from
Washington and Tokyo, and they see both capitals as
supporting Taiwan’s ambitions of independence. Thus

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Taiwan is the key flash point. The PLA is preparing to use
force against the United States in a Taiwan scenario.
After the deployment of two aircraft carrier battle groups
in the 1996 Strait crisis, most senior officers in the PLA
assume the United States will become involved in any
Chinese military operation against Taiwan.107
Chinese leaders, grounded in culturally-based
assumptions about U.S. and Japanese strategic thinking
and intentions, perceive the United States as the key threat
to China for the foreseeable future and Japan as the
presumptive challenge to China.
U.S. Threat. Whatever the United States does will be
viewed with suspicion by China, and Washington should
anticipate hot blasts of harsh rhetoric. But these should not
simply be dismissed as propaganda—these words are also
the manifestation of real Chinese fears. These concerns are
a combination of China’s own strategic culture and its image
of U.S. strategic culture. Given this, the logic of U.S. moves
should be clearly articulated with the recognition that the
rhetoric may not be accepted at face value. Any changes in
the U.S. forward presence in the Asia-Pacific (Northeast
Asia in particular) and in U.S. alliance structures should be
undertaken with this in mind.
Future Threat: Fear of a Resurgent Japan. The United
States should also be sensitive to Chinese concerns about
Japanese rearmament, given Chinese images of Japan’s
strategic culture. Any draw down of U.S. forces in Northeast
Asia would likely mean a corresponding rise in Japanese
defense spending and buildup of strategic capabilities. This
could easily raise tensions in the region and trigger an arms
race.
China uses force to achieve specific political goals—
usually not to achieve a resounding military victory but to
send a warning or a message of deterrence or compellance.
Certainly an important part of the reason why China does
not seek a stunning battlefield victory is because its military
resources are limited relative to its potential foes. But there

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is an important cultural dimension that accounts for this
way of thinking, and China’s predilection for the limited use
of force should not be confused with a reluctance to use force
at all. In fact, since 1949 China deployed force in ways that
reveal a tendency to take significant, albeit calculated,
risks. In the Taiwan Strait crises of the 1950s, in the 1969
border clashes with the Soviet Union, and in the 1979
border war with Vietnam, China could not be 100 percent
certain that any of these actions would not provoke an
escalating response from a superpower.
China’s emphasis on unification and perceptions of
threats within the Chinese state suggest force will be used
domestically. There remains a genuine possibility that force
will be used to achieve unification with Taiwan. Certainly
military means are not the most desirable option for Beijing,
but the use of force may be viewed as necessary.108
Moreover, Chinese perceptions of Japanese and American
strategic cultures reveal a predisposition to make Tokyo
and Washington the headquarters of states with menacing
designs on China’s sovereignty and security. In sum,
strategic culture has important influence not only on why
China uses force, but where and against whom.

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR U.S. DEFENSE POLICY

As the September 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review


(QDR) notes, “Asia is gradually emerging as a region
susceptible to large-scale military competition.” The
continent is increasingly important to U.S. security
interests. Asia “contains a volatile mix of rising and
declining powers” as the QDR also notes, and China is
certainly the most significant rising power in the region.109
If the findings of this study are accurate, China’s
leaders and strategists are convinced that their country
harbors no aggressive intentions towards other countries.
Because China is a peace-loving country that only uses
force in self-defense, its defense modernization and
territorial claims regarding Taiwan in the East and South
China Sea

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should not alarm anyone. Beijing’s leaders, in other
words, tend to remain oblivious to the possibility that
other countries might feel threatened or uneasy about
China’s growing military power, saber rattling in the
Taiwan Strait, or increasing assertiveness in the South
China Sea.
This study also reveals that the feelings of
ambivalence and suspicion with which many in the
United States view China are mirrored in China. That is,
many in China’s national security community hold
similar views of ambivalence and suspicion about the
U.S. strategic disposition vis-à-vis China.
Such mutual suspicion and distrust make it difficult—
albeit not impossible—for the two sides to hold a
meaningful dialogue and cooperate on security issues.

Recommendations.

1. Any change in the size of the U.S. force presence


in Northeast Asia should be carefully considered and
the logic or rationale should be articulated clearly.
China could very easily misread a change in the size of
the
U.S. military presence in Northeast Asia. A reduction, for
example, could be interpreted as a decline in U.S.
commitment. Land power adjustments in particular should
be considered very carefully, since the size of U.S. ground
forces in Northeast Asia tends to be considered a very
significant indicator of the depth of U.S. defense
commitment to the area. There is nothing wrong with the
concept of “places, not bases” but in terms of “dissuading
adversaries” and “deterring aggression”—two of the “key
goals” outlined by Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld in
the QDR report—one should not underestimate the value of
forward deployed ground forces. China, for example,
interprets American “boots on the ground” as a key symbol
of U.S. steadfastness. This is true not only in the case for the
continued U.S. presence on the Korean Peninsula, but also
in the dispatch of American ground forces to Central Asia in
the aftermath of September 11, 2001.

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2. Robust and agile forward deployed land power
with in-theater experience is a key determinant of
success in future conflicts. As Rumsfeld stated in his
January 30, 2002, speech at the National Defense
University (NDU), one of the lessons he drew from phase
one of the War on Terrorism in Afghanistan was “don’t rule
out ground forces.” While technology and airpower were
invaluable in Afghanistan, without the presence of
ground forces in the country, these elements would have
been far less effective. Defense transformation does not
render “boots on the ground (or in the stirrup!)”
obsolete. He stressed that defense transformation is
about using “new and existing capabilities” and putting
them “together in unprecedented ways.” Moreover, the
fact that Special Operations Forces had trained with
colleagues in Uzbekistan was instrumental in
facilitating the access of
U.S. forces to the region and provided firsthand experience
of operating in Central Asia.
3. When making changes in the U.S.-Japan defense
relationship, give due consideration to how this will
be interpreted by China. Any changes in U.S.-Japanese
defense ties will be minutely scrutinized by Beijing.
Almost certainly, Beijing will interpret virtually any
change as resulting in a closer military alliance.
Moreover, given the dominant Chinese perception of the
strategic cultures of these two countries, Beijing will tend
to conclude the change results in a greater threat to
China.
4. Any change in the policy of “strategic
ambiguity” vis-à-vis Taiwan should be weighed very
carefully. If the policy of “strategic ambiguity” shifted
toward “clarity,” Beijing would almost certainly perceive
this to be a serious strengthening of U.S. commitment to
Taiwan.110 In such a situation, Beijing could easily
determine that there had been a qualitative change of
policy toward Washington, one that called for a
significant Chinese response. This might easily trigger
some kind of military action by China. Even if China
limited itself to a display of force short of an actual military
attack on Taiwan,

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the likely increase in tensions would have a negative impact
throughout East Asia. It is important to recognize that the
majority of security analysts in Beijing and Shanghai are
convinced that, despite the current U.S. policy of “strategic
ambiguity” in the event of an unprovoked Chinese attack on
Taiwan, the United States would come to the island’s
defense.111 Indeed, ambiguity does not refer to doubts
about whether the United States is committed to
Taiwan’s security; rather, the ambiguity refers to what
precisely would trigger U.S. intervention and what the
nature of that intervention would be.
5. Make protection of U.S. military C4ISR assets
and defense against information attacks a high
priority. China has identified technology, and information
technology in particular, as an Achilles’ heel of the United
States. Exploiting this weakness is clearly a priority for the
PLA identified by Chinese military researchers. While it is
unclear just how far along China is in developing actual
information warfare capabilities, the potential challenge
from China must be taken seriously.112 Significantly,
Rumsfeld stressed the importance of “protecting
information networks from attack” in his January speech at
NDU. Upgrading the protection of U.S. defense information
networks must be made a high priority.
6. Carefully and continuously monitor Chinese
strategic thinking and perceptions of the United
States, Japan, and Taiwan. Staying abreast of trends in
Chinese strategic thought and perceptions of the United
States, Japan, and Taiwan is a critical and continual
challenge. Monitoring Chinese thinking on these subjects
provides significant insights and indications of possible
future courses of action. Military-to-military ties are a
core component of this (see recommendation 7). It is also
essential to keep up on the ever-growing number of
books and periodicals published by the Chinese
defense intellectual community. Since this presents an
immense challenge to Pentagon analysts, tapping the
expertise of outside experts becomes increasingly
essential. The size

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and publication output of the PLA watching community has
also grown. A manageable way to keep current with their
research is to consult the series of papers from two annual
PLA conferences. One, founded by the Chinese Council of
Advanced Policy Studies (or CAPS—a Taiwan-based think
tank) has in recent years been co-sponsored by the RAND
Corporation, and the papers are published as edited
volumes by RAND. The other was founded by the
Washington-based American Enterprise Institute (AEI). In
recent years this conference has been co-sponsored by the
Heritage Foundation and the U.S. Army War College. Since
1999 the annual conference volume has been published by
the War College’s Strategic Studies Institute.
7. Getting security cooperation with China back
on a more routine footing should be a priority.
Resuming security cooperation or military-to-military
relations between the Pentagon and the PLA is important
because it opens up multiple channels of communications
where members of the two armed forces can learn more
about each other firsthand, and the myths and stereotypes
each hold of the other can be dispelled. Routine does not
mean that the program is not well-conceived and prudently
tailored to serve the interests of U.S. national security.
Rather, it means that security cooperation should not be
subject to turbulence of day-to-day Washington politics and
ad hoc tinkering. One way to help ensure this is to avoid
those aspects that are likely to be controversial and prone
to be cancelled whenever there is a downturn in the
relationship.113 For the United States, the Army is the
service best suited to take the lead role in security
cooperation.114

ENDNOTES

1. For discussion of strategic culture in general, see Alastair I.


Johnston, “Thinking About Strategic Culture,” International Security,
Vol 19, No. 4, Spring 1995, pp. 32-64; Peter J. Katzenstein, ed., The
Culture of National Security, New York: Columbia University Press,
1996; and Ken Booth and Russell Trood, eds., Strategic Cultures in
the

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Asia-Pacific Region, Houndsmills, Basingstoke: Macmillan Press,
1999. For a recent critique of the approach, see Michael C. Desch,
“Cultural Clash: Assessing the Importance of Ideas in Security
Studies,” International Security, Vol. 23, Summer 1999, pp. 141-170.
For discussion of the utility of strategic culture in security studies of
China, see Robert S. Ross and Paul H. B. Godwin, “New Directions in
Chinese Security Studies,” in David Shambaugh, ed., American
Studies of Contemporary China, Armonk: M. E. Sharpe, Inc., 1993, p.
144; and Samuel S. Kim, “China and the World in Theory and
Practice,” in Samuel S. Kim, ed., China and the World, 3rd ed.,
Boulder: Westview Press, 1998, pp. 14-15.

2. On China’s international relations, see the writings of John K.


Fairbank and Mark Mancall; on China’s military and security affairs,
see John K. Fairbank, “Introduction,” in Frank A. Kierman, Jr., and
John K. Fairbank, eds., Chinese Ways in Warfare, Cambridge: Harvard
University Press, 1974.

3. Li Jijun, “Lun zhanlue wenhua,” [on strategic culture] Zhongguo


junshi kexue [China military science—hereafter ZGJSKX] No. 1, 1997,
p. 8. See also Li Jijun, Traditional Military Thinking and the Defense
Strategy of China, An address to the U.S. War College [sic] Letort
Paper No. 1, Introduction by Douglas C. Lovelace, Jr., Carlisle
Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, August 29, 1997. For the
Chinese language version, see Li Jijun, “Zhongguo junshi sixiang
chuantong yu fangyu zhanlue,” Zhongguo junshi kexue [China
Military Science] No. 4, Winter 1997, pp. 62-64.

4. See also, for example, Ni Lexiong, zhanzheng yu wenhua


chuantong: dui lishi de ling yi zhong guancha [war and cultural
tradition: another perspective on history] Shanghai: Shanghai
Shudian Chubanshe, March 2000.

5. Of course, this dynamic works both ways. See, for example, Susan
M. Puska, New Century, Old Thinking: The Dangers of the Perceptual
Gap in U.S.-China Relations, Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies
Institute, April 10, 1998.

6. On images of the United States in the late 20th century, see for
example, David Shambaugh, Beautiful Imperialist, Princeton:
Princeton University Press, 1991. For a more recent effort, see Phillip
Saunders, “China’s America Watchers,” The China Quarterly, No. 161,
March 2000, pp. 41-65. On images of Japan in the late 20th century, see
Allen S. Whiting, China Eyes Japan, Berkeley and Los Angeles:
University of California Press, 1989; and Michael Pillsbury, China
Debates the Future Security Environment, Washington, DC: National

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Defense University Press, 2000, pp. 107-138, 153. The role of culture in
Chinese perceptions of the United States and Japan is downplayed, if
not ignored. In his study of China’s Americanists, David Shambaugh
notes, “culture [is] . . . a factor that conditions the broader intellectual
milieu shaping the America Watchers’ perceptions.” Beautiful
Imperialist, p. 297. Shambaugh has several pages of discussion on
this aspect, but culture is not the focus of his study. By contrast, in his
study of Japan watchers in China, Allen Whiting completely
downplays the influence of culturally influenced images. See China
Eyes Japan. Michael Pillsbury discusses in passing the cultural
dimension of Chinese perceptions of the United States and Japan.
See Pillsbury, China Debates the Future . . . , pp. xlv-xlvi, for the
United States, and 108-109, 153, for Japan.

7. Jack Snyder formulated the term “strategic culture” in an effort to


understand the nuclear strategy of the Soviet Union. Jack Snyder,
The Soviet Strategic Culture: Implications for Limited Nuclear
Operations, Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, September 1977.
The term often goes undefined. The following examples are taken
from the China literature, although these uses of strategic culture are
not unique to China studies. See two studies by Shu Guang Zhang:
Deterrence and Strategic Culture: Chinese-American Confrontations,
1949-1958, Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1992; and “China:
Traditional and Revolutionary Heritage” in Ken Booth and Russell
Trood, eds., Strategic Cultures in the Asia-Pacific Region, Houndsmills,
Basingstoke, Hampshire: Macmillan Press, 1999, pp. 29-50. For broad
definitions, see Ross and Godwin, “New Directions in Chinese Security
Studies,” p. 144. Rosita Dellios states: “Strategic culture pertains to a
people’s distinctive style of dealing with and thinking about the
problems of national security.” Rosita Dellios, “‘How May the World
Be at Peace?’: Idealism as Realism in China’s Strategic Culture,” in
Valerie M. Hudson, ed., Culture and Foreign Policy, Boulder: Lynne
Rienner, 1997, p. 203. For a focused and rigorous definition, see
Alastair Iain Johnston, Cultural Realism: Strategic Culture and Grand
Strategy in China History, Princeton: Princeton University Press,
1995.

8. Allen S. Whiting, China Eyes Japan, Berkeley and Los Angeles:


University of California Press, 1989.

9. Andrew Scobell, China’s Use of Military Force: Beyond the Great


Wall and the Long March, New York: Cambridge University Press,
chap. 2, forthcoming 2003; Andrew Scobell, “The Chinese Cult of
Defense,” Issues and Studies, Vol. 37, No. 5, September/October 2001,
pp. 100-127.

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10. Chong-Pin Lin, China’s Nuclear Strategy: Evolution Within
Tradition, Lexington, MA: D. C. Heath, 1988.

11. Fairbank, “Introduction,” in Fairbank and Kierman, eds.,


Chinese Ways in Warfare, pp. 1-26. For a similar type of argument which
stresses the influence of Daoism, see Rosita Dellios, “How May the
World Be at Peace?”

12. Jonathan R. Adelman and Chih-yu Shih, Symbolic War: The


Chinese Use of Force, 1840-1980, Taipei: Institute for International
Relations, 1993; Howard L. Boorman and Scott A. Boorman, “Strategy
and National Psychology in China,” The Annals of the Academy of
Politicaland Social Sciences, 1967, pp. 143-155; Edward S. Boylan,
“The Chinese Cultural Style of Warfare,” Comparative Strategy, Vol. 3,
No. 4, 1982, pp. 341-366.

13. See, for example, Davis B. Bobrow, “Peking’s Military


Calculus,” World Politics, Vol. 16, No. 2, 1964, pp. 287-301; Steve
Chan, “Chinese Conflict Calculus and Behavior: Assessment from the
Perspective of Conflict Management,” World Politics, Vol. 30, No. 3,
1978, pp. 391-410; Allen S. Whiting, The Chinese Calculus of
Deterrence, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1975; Melvin
Gurtov and Byung-Moo Hwang, China Under Threat, Baltimore:
Johns Hopkins University Press, 1982.

14. Johnston, Cultural Realism; Alastair I. Johnson, “Cultural


Realism and Grand Strategy in Maoist China,” in Katzenstein, ed., The
Culture of National Security. While the fullest articulation of the
realpolitik approach by Iain Johnston discerns the presence of two
strands of strategic culture (Confucian-Mencian and Parabellum), he
asserts that only one—the parabellum—is operative. See also
Christensen, “Chinese Realpolitik,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 75, No. 4,
September/October 1997, pp. 37-53; Mark Burles and Abraham N.
Shulsky, Patterns in China’s Use of Force: Evidence from History and
Doctrinal Writings, Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, 2000. See in
particular the appendix in this RAND monograph.

15. Scobell, China’s Use of Military Force, chap. 2.

16. This depiction of China’s strategic culture draws heavily on a


larger study of China’s use of force funded by the Smith Richardson
Foundation. See Scobell, “The Chinese Cult of Defense”; and Scobell,
China’s Use of Military Force, chap. 2. The cult of defense is a
refinement of the “Cult of the Offensive” concept. See Jack Snyder,
“Civil-Military Relations and the Cult of the Offensive, 1914 and
1984,” International Security, Vol. 9, No. 1, Summer 1984, pp. 108-
146; and Stephen Van

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Evera, “The Cult of the Offensive and the Origins of the First World
War,” International Security, Vol. 9, No. 1, Summer 1984, pp. 58-107.
Unlike the conception of Snyder and Van Evera which has
bureaucratic/organizational origins, the Chinese Cult of Defense is
grounded in psycho-cultural mindset. The concept of a “Cult of Defense”
owes intellectual debts to the work of Stephen Van Evera, Jack
Snyder, and Shu Guang Zhang. See Shu Guang Zhang, Mao’s Military
Romanticism: China and the Korean War, 1950-1953, Lawrence:
University Press of Kansas, 1995.

17. Scobell, China’s Use of Military Force, chap. 2.

18. Lawrence Freedman, cited in Carl H. Builder, The Masks of


War: American Military Styles in Strategy and Analysis, Baltimore:
Johns Hopkins University Press, 1989, p. 6.

19. The extent to which these ideas are prevalent throughout


Chinese society, while important to ascertain, is not central to my
analysis. Here I concentrate on China’s civilian and military elites.
Nevertheless, such beliefs seem widespread within China. “The self-
perception of China as a pacific, nonthreatening country that wishes
nothing more than to live in peace with its neighbors is extremely
common in China, both among the elite and ordinary people.” John
Garver, quoted in Nayan Chanda, “Fear of the Dragon,” Far Eastern
Economic Review, April 13, 1995, p. 24.

20. The cluster of beliefs outlined below appears to be held by a


significant number of leaders in China. The cult of defense
articulated here is derived from writings published primarily in the
1980s and 1990s, and from interviews conducted in 1998 and 2000.

21. “White Paper on China’s National Defense,” Beijing Xinhua


Domestic Service, July 27, 1998, in Foreign Broadcast Information
Service Daily Reports-China Daily Report (hereafter FBIS-CHI)-July
29, 1998.

22. “Liu Huaqing On the Stand of the Military Towards Taiwan,”


Ta Kung Pao (Hong Kong), September 4, 1995, in FBIS-CHI,
September, 7, 1995.

23. Xing Shizhong, “China Threat Theory May Be Forgotten,”


Quishi [Seeking truth], No. 3, February 1996, in FBIS-CHI, February 1,
1996. See also Gao Jiquan, “China Holds High Banner of Peace,”
Jiefangjun Bao (Liberation Army Daily) June 27, 1996, in FBIS-
CHI-96-133.

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24. Li Jijun, “Lun zhanlue wenhua,” p. 9.

25. Ibid. See also Chen Zhou, “Zhongguo xiandai jubu zhanzheng
lilun yu Meiguo youxian zhanzheng lilun zhi butong,” [Differences
between China’s theory of modern local war and America’s theory of
limited war], ZGJSKX, No. 4, 1995, p. 6; Interviews with civilian and
military researchers in Beijing and Shanghai, May-June 1998
[hereafter “Interviews, 1998”].

26. The five principles, first outlined by Zhou Enlai in the 1950s, are
mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, nonaggression,
noninterference in internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit, and
peaceful coexistence.

27. Wu Xinbo, “China: Security Practice of a Modernizing and


Ascending Power,” in Alagappa, ed., Asian Security Practice, pp. 121-
122.

28. Wang Zhongyan and Cui Haiming, “Deng Xiaoping de junshi


sixiang chutan’ [Preliminary exploration of Deng Xiaoping’s military
thought] in Pan Shiying, chief editor, Dangdai Zhongguo Junshi
Sixiang Jingyao [The Essence of Contemporary Chinese Military
Thinking], Beijing: Jiefangjun Chubanshe, 1992, p. 121. See also Peng
Dehuai, “Junshi jianshe gaikuang” [General situation of military
construction], July 16, 1957, in Peng Dehuai Junshi Wenxuan
[Collected Military Works of Peng Dehuai], Beijing: Zhongyang
Wenxian Chubanshe, 1988, p. 588.

29. Deng Xiaoping, “Muqian de xingshi he renwu” [Present situation


and tasks], January 16, 1980, in Deng Xiaoping Wenxuan (1975-1982)
[Selected Works of Deng Xiaoping 1975-1982], Beijing: Renmin
Chubanshe, 1984, pp. 203-204.

30. Wang and Cui, “Deng Xiaoping de junshi,” p. 121; interviews,


1998.

31. Another example offered is the way ethnic Chinese cooperated


with the Manchu rulers of the Qing dynasty. The Chinese, for
instance, according to one military scholar, did not object to shaving
their heads and wearing queues! Interviews.

32. See the succinct discussion in Andrew J. Nathan and Robert S.


Ross, The Great Wall and the Empty Fortress: China’s Search for
Security, New York: W.W. Norton, 1997, p. 5.

33. “Liu Huaqing Refutes Argument,” p. 31. See also Xing


Shizhong, “China Threat Theory May be Forgotten.”

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34. Deng Xiaoping, “Muqian de xingshi he renwu,” pp. 203-204.

35. The importance of these concepts was stressed by Chinese


researchers during interviews I conducted in May and June 1998.

36. Li Jijun, “Lun junshi zhanlue siwei” [On military strategic


thinking], ZGJSKX, No. 2, 1996, p. 78.

37. Gao Jiquan, “China Holds High Banner of Peace.”

38. Li Jijun, “Lun zhanlue wenhua,” p. 10; interviews, 1998.

39. Li Jijun, “Lun junshi zhanlue siwei,” p. 78; Li Jijun,


“Zhongguo junshi sixiang chuantong,” p. 62; interviews.

40. Li Jijun, “Zhongguo junshi sixiang chuantong,” p. 63.

41. Li Jijun, “Lun zhanlue wenhua,” p. 9. See also Li Jijun,


“Zhongguo junshi sixiang chuantong,” p. 63.

42. Li Jijun, “Lun zhanlue wenhua,” p. 9; interviews, 1998.

43. Yao Youzhi, “Gudai Zhong-Xi junshi chuantong zhi bijiao” [A


comparison of Chinese and Western ancient military traditions],
ZGJSKX, No. 3, 1995, pp. 93-94.

44. Author’s interviews with civilian and military researchers in


Beijing and Shanghai, September 2000 [hereafter “Interviews
2000.”].

45. “Liu Huaqing on Stand of Military Towards Taiwan.”

46. Li Jijun, “Lun zhanlue wenhua,” p. 10; Chen Zhou, “Zhongguo


xiandai jubu zhanzheng,” p. 45; Xing Shizhong, “China Threat Theory
May Be Forgotten”; Gao Jiquan, “China Holds High Banner of Peace”;
Xiong Guangkai, “Zhongguo de guofang zhengce,” [China’s national
defense policy], Guoji Zhanlue Yanjiu [International Strategic
Studies], No. 55, January 2000, p. 4; interviews 1998.

47. “Huijian Yidali jizhe Naxi.Polasishi de tanhua jiyao’ (17 August


1980) [Summary of a talk in an interview with Italian journalist ] in
Xu Xiangqian Junshi Wenxuan [Selected Military Works of Xu
Xiangqian], Beijing: Jiefangjun Chubanshe, 1993, p. 305.

48. Zhang Jing and Yao Yanjin, Jiji Fangyu Zhanlue Qianshuo
[Introduction to Active Defense Strategy], Beijing: Jiefangjun
Chubanshe, 1985, p. 137.

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49. See, for example, Junshi Kexueyuan Junshi Lishi Yanjiubu, ed.,
Zhongguo Renmin Jiefangjun de qishinian [Seventy years of the
Chinese People’s Liberation Army], Beijing: Junshi Kexue Chubanshe,
1997, pp. 541-547, 580-582. Moreover, China’s intervention in Korea in
October 1950 was also a counterattack, since in Beijing’s view the
United States had made the first aggressive moves against China on the
Korean Peninsula and in the Taiwan Strait. Song Shilun, Mao Zedong
Junshi Sixiangde Xingcheng Jiqi Fazhan [Formation and Development
of Mao Zedong’s Military Thought], Beijing: Junshi Kexue Chubanshe,
1984, p. 222.

50. For a discussion of just war in the Confucian tradition, see


Huang Pumin, “Rujia junshi sixiang yu Zhongguo gudai junshi wenhua
chuantong” [Confucian military thinking and the military cultural
tradition of ancient China], ZGJSKX, No. 4, Winter 1997, pp. 73-74.

51. Wang Zhiping and Li Dezhou, “Zhong-Xi gudai junshi lilun


de zhexue jichu” (Philosophical foundation of Chinese and Western
military theories in ancient times), ZGJSKX, No. 4, 1995, pp. 30-31,
34-35; Yao Youzhi, “Gudai Zhong-Xi junshi chuantong,” pp. 95-96.

52. Johnston, “Cultural Realism and Strategy,” pp. 231-232. The


theme of just or righteous war was a significant one in many popular
histories and novels that Mao—and other leaders—read. See ibid., p.
247.

53. A first strike is only just if China can claim that the attack was
launched to preempt an attack being prepared by an opponent.

54. Ted K. Gong, China: Tradition, Nationalism and Just War,


Strategic Research Project, Carlisle Barracks, PA: U.S. Army War
College, January 17, 1999, p. 23.

55. Zhongguo Renmin Jiefangjun junguan shouce (lujun fence)


[Chinese People’s Liberation Army officer handbook (landpower
edition)], Qingdao: Qingdao Chubanshe, 1991, p. 221.

56. See Bruce Cummings, Parallax Visions: Making Sense of


American-East Asian Relations at the End of the Century, Durham:
Duke University Press, 1999, p. 166.

57. Li Jijun, “International Military Strategy and China’s


Security at the Turn of the Century,” Zhongguo Pinglun (Hong Kong),
August 5, 1998, in FBIS, August 13, 1998.

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58. Fan Yihua, “Shi lun Zhongguo xiandai sixiang wenhua de xing
chao ji zhanlue qu” [on the form and strategic trend of modern thought
culture in China], ZGJSKX, No. 1, 1997, p. 26.

59. See, for example, Li Zhisui, The Private Life of Chairman Mao,
New York: Random House, 1994; Liz Sly, “A State of Paranoia,”
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September/October 1999, pp. 38-43;
Michael Pillsbury, China Debates the Future Security
Environment, Washington, DC: National Defense University Press,
2000.

60. On the corruption campaign, see John Schauble, “China’s


Communists Fear the Enemy from Within,” Sydney Morning Herald,
September 27, 2000, p. 8. See also more generally, Sly, “A State of
Paranoia.”

61. For recent use of this slogan, see, for example, Gao Jiquan,
“China Holds High Banner of Peace,” Jiefangjun Bao, June 27, 1996 in
FBIS, July 12, 1996.

62. Zhongguo Renmin Jiefangjun junguan shouce (lujun fence), p.


199.

63. The 1969 clash with the Soviet Union and the 1979 Vietnam
conflict are similarly labeled. Zhongguo Renmin Jiefangjun junguan
shouce (lujun fence), pp. 514-515.

64. Iain Johnston contends that the term “defense” is employed for
propaganda purposes so that every military action can be labeled as
defense and hence more justified than anything called “offensive.” See
Johnston, “Cultural Realism and Strategy,” pp. 249-250, especially
footnote 63.

65. Chen Zhou, “Zhongguo xiandai jubu zhanzheng,” p. 46. See also
Mi Zhenyu, “Zhongguo jiji fangyu zhanlue fangzhen” (China’s
strategic plan of active defense), in Shi Boke, ed., Zhongguo Daqushi
(Megatrends China), Beijing: Hualing Chubanshe, 1996, p. 53.

66. Senior Colonel Wang Naiming, “Adhere to Active Defense and


Modern People’s War,” in Michael Pillsbury, ed., Chinese Views of
Future Warfare, Washington, DC: National Defense University Press,
1997, p. 37.

67. Johnston, Cultural Realism, p. 102 ff.

68. Jianxiang Bi, “The PRC’s Active Defense Strategy: New Wars,
Old Concepts,” Issues and Studies, Vol. 31, No. 11, November 1995,
p. 94.

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69. Chen Zhou, “Zhongguo xiandai jubu zhanzheng,” p. 46. See also
Nan Li, “The PLA’s Evolving Warfighting Doctrine, Strategy, and
Tactics, 1985-95: A Chinese Perspective,” The China Quarterly, No. 146,
June 1996, pp. 443-463.

70. Li Jiaquan, “Where are the Chinese People’s Feelings?”


Renmin ribao [People’s Daily] (Beijing), June 17, 1994.

71. On the duality of Chinese views of Japan, see Whiting, China


Eyes Japan, pp. 27-28. On Japan as a model, see ibid., chapter 5.

72. See Whiting, China Eyes Japan, p. 133.

73. See, for example, Kenneth W. Allen and Eric A. McVadon,


China’s Foreign Military Relations, Washington, DC: Henry L. Stimson
Center, October 1999, p. 65.

74. Li, “lun zhanlue wenhua,” p. 11-12; “Riben junshi sixiang”


(Japanese Military Thought), entry in Zhongguo Junshi Baikequan
Shubian Shen Weiyuanhui, compiler, Zhongguo Junshi Baike
Quanshu, Vol. 1, Junshi sixiang, Beijing: Junshi Kexue Chubanshe,
1997, p. 246 [hereafter Zhongguo Junshi Baike Quanshu].

75. Li Jijun, “lun zhanlue wenhua,” p. 12. This image was


reinforced by the author’s interviews with civilian and military
analysts in Beijing and Shanghai, September 2000.

76. Ibid.

77. Interviews, 2000.

78. Li Jijun, “lun zhanlue wenhua,” pp. 11, 13.

79. See, for example, Zhongguo Junshi Baike Quanshu, 1:246-


247; interviews, 2000.

80. Whiting, China Eyes Japan, p. 148. The belief in a “Japanese


cultural tendency toward aggression” seems widespread among
Chinese strategic thinkers. This quote is from a recent book by a PRC-
born international relations scholar who is now based in the United
States: Suisheng Zhao, Power Competition in East Asia: From the Old
Chinese World Order to Post-Cold War Regional Multipolarity, New
York, St. Martin’s Press, 1998, p. 219.

81. Whiting, China Eyes Japan, pp. 127, 196; interviews, 2000.

82. Ibid., p. 7; Pillsbury, China Debates the Future, pp. 113-114.

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83. Shambaugh, Beautiful Imperialist, pp. 297-298.

84. See, for example, Allen S. Whiting, “The PLA and China’s
Threat Perceptions,” The China Quarterly, No. 146, June 1996, pp.
607-609; Mel Gurtov and Byung Moo Hwang, China’s Security: the
New Roles of the Military, Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1998, pp. 70-73.

85. Andrew Scobell, “Show of Force: Chinese Soldiers,


Statesmen, and the Taiwan Strait Crisis of 1995-1996,” Political
Science Quarterly, Vol. 115, No. 2, Summer 2000, p. 241. But this
belief is not limited to soldiers. According to a leading civilian
America watcher:

The enduring, unchanging fundamental goal of the U.S. strategy on China


is to change China. The U.S. Government and U.S. strategists and
politicians firmly believe that the phenomenon of the “fall of the Berlin Wall”
will happen again in China sooner or later. The U.S. strategy on China is
based on the idea that China will change, and the fundamental purpose is
to promote China’s evolution in the direction wanted by the United States,
that is, to Westernize China.

Chu Shulong, “China’s National Interest, National Power, and


National Strategy,” zhanlue yu guanli, August 1, 1999, in FBIS,
October 26, 1999.

86. Zhu Chenghu, chief editor, Zhongmei guanxi de fazhan bianhua


ji qi qushi [Changing developments and trends in China-U.S.
relations], Nanjing: Jiangsu Renmin Chubanshe, 1998, p. 194.

87. Cited in Li Tzu-ching, “The Chinese Military Clamors for


War: Vowing to Have a Fight with the United States,” Cheng Ming,
Hong Kong, June 1, 1999, in FBIS, June 28, 1999. More than likely,
these news reports are somewhat sensationalized and embellished.
Nevertheless, given the outrage and anger in China over the May
1999 bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, the account in
Cheng Ming is quite plausible. See also, Li Tzu-ching, “CPC Thinks
China and
U.S. Will Eventually Go to War,” Cheng Ming, May 1, 1997, in FBIS-
011-97-126. This article is also quoted by Pillsbury, China Views the
Future, p. xxii.

88. Fan Yihua, “Shi lun Zhongguo xiandai sixiang wenhua de


xingchao ji zhanlue qu,” pp. 23, 22.

89. Wang Xuhe, “Jianyi minzu wenhua dui junshi zhanlue de


yingxiang” [comment on the influence of national culture on military
strategic thinking], ZGJSKX, No. 1, 1997, p. 44.

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90. Peng Huaidong, “Lun zhan Xi Zhan-Zhong guan zhi yancha yi,”
[on the basic differences between Chinese and Western viewpoints
of war], ZGJSKX, No. 1, 1997, p. 127.

91. Peng Huaidong, “Lun zhan Xi Zhan-Zhong guan zhi yancha yi,”
p. 127; interviews, September 2000.

92. Li Jijun, “lun zhanlue wenhua,” p. 14.

93. Interviews, 2000.

94. Li Jijun, “lun zhanlue wenhua,” p. 12.

95. Interviews, 2000.

96. Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui, Chaoxian zhan [unrestricted


warfare], Beijing: Jiefangjun Wenyi Chubanshe, February 1999, pp.
96-101.

97. Observer, “We Urge Hegemonism Today To Take a Look At


the Mirror of History,” People’s Daily, June 22, 1999, cited in
Pillsbury, China Debates the Future, p. 101.

98. This paragraph is drawn from Li Jijun, “lun zhanlue


wenhua,” pp. 14-15. See also, Pillsbury, China Debates the Future,
pp. xlv-xlvi.

99. The information on Chinese perceptions of Indian nuclear


tests of May 1998 come from author’s interviews with civilian and
military researchers in Beijing and Shanghai, May-June 1998. On
Chinese perceptions of the May 1999 bombing of its Belgrade
Embassy, see Li Tzu-ching, “The Chinese Military Clamors for War”;
and Scobell, “Show of Force,” p. 241.

100. Interviews, 2000.

101. Wang Xuhe, “Jianyi minzu wenhua dui junshi zhanlue de


yingxiang,” p. 45.

102. Han Shengmin, ed., Zouxiang 21 shiji waiguo junshi jianshe


[foreign military construction as the 21st century draws near],
Beijing: Junshi Kexueyuan Chubanshe, 1996, pp. 47-48, cited in
Pillsbury, China Debates the Future, pp. 66-67.

103. Zhu Xiaoli and Zhao Xiaozhuo, Mei-E xin junshi geming [the
new revolution in military affairs in the United States and Russia],
Beijing: Junshi Kexue Chubanshe, 1996, pp. 41-45, cited in Pillsbury,
China Debates the Future, p. 67.

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104. Li Jijun, “lun zhanlue wenhua,” p. 14.

105. Interviews, September 2000.

106. Scobell, “Show of Force,” p. 240.

107. Author’s interviews in Beijing and Shanghai with civilian and


military researchers, February-March 2000; Scobell, “Show of Force.”
However, a minority of researchers appear to believe that the United
States would blink.

108. Andrew Scobell, Chinese Army Building in the Era of Jiang


Zemin, Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute,
September 2000, p. 26.

109. Quadrennial Defense Review, Washington, DC: Department of


Defense, September 2001, p. 4.

110. Indeed, China reacted strongly to Bush’s remarks in late


April 2001 that the United States would do “whatever it took to help
Taiwan defend herself.” See, for example, Philip P. Pan, “China
‘Concerned’ By Bush Remark: Beijing Says U.S. Drifting Down a
Dangerous Road,” Washington Post, April 27, 2001. The author
witnessed this reaction first hand at a conference in early May 2001.
Chinese participants insisted that Bush’s statement was the end of
“strategic ambiguity.”

111. Andrew Scobell, The U.S. Army and the Asia-Pacific, Carlisle
Barracks, PA: U.S. Army War College, April 2001, p. 11. This does not
mean that China would be completely deterred from launching an
operation against Taiwan, but it does make Chinese military planning
much more complicated and significantly lessens the probability of
success.

112. Toshi Yoshihara, Chinese Information Warfare: Phantom


Menace or Emerging Threat? Carlisle Barracks, PA: U.S. Army War
College, November 20001; Mark Stokes, China’s Strategic
Modernization: Implications for the United States, Carlisle Barracks,
PA: U.S. Army War College, September 1999.

113. For more detailed discussion of security cooperation with


China, see Scobell, The U.S. Army and the Asia-Pacific, pp. 31-32.

114. On why the Army is suited for this lead role, see Scobell, The
U.S. Army and the Asia-Pacific, pp. 31-32.

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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE

Major General Robert R. Ivany


Commandant

*****

STRATEGIC STUDIES INSTITUTE

Director
Professor Douglas C. Lovelace, Jr.

Director of Research
Dr. Steven Metz

Author
Dr. Andrew Scobell

Director of Publications
Ms. Marianne P. Cowling

Publications Assistant
Ms. Rita A. Rummel

*****

Composition
Ms. Kimberly A. Rockwell

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