Jonibek
Jonibek
Jonibek
Uzbekistan?
Since independence, the government has committed to the transition to a diversified market-
based economy that is resilient and offers more opportunities. The implementation of economic
policies has been cautious, but the country has made significant strides. The government
continues to struggle with the black market even after introducing the official exchange rate to
stabilize the national currency. Uzbekistan’s restrictive and interventionist trade policies
continue to hinder the growth of the economy, but it has the potential to improve by
strengthening the financial system, improving the business climate to attract foreign investors,
and reducing the grip on some sectors of the economy such as the agricultural sector. The
government also places restrictions on currency conversion and import restrictions. Uzbekistan
and the International Monetary Fund have made considerable progress in curbing budget
deficit and reducing inflation. Today, the manufacturing and agriculture industries contribute
equally to the economy and account for half the GDP of the country.
Financial Sector
The financial system in Uzbekistan is closely controlled and monitored by the state through
regulatory actions, proclamations, decrees, and practices. Most banks are wholly or partially
owned by the government while most loans are channeled to pre-selected sectors. The slow pace
of reforms in the financial sector limits the ability of the banks to offer monetary assistant to
companies and citizens thus inhibiting the growth of the economy. Although the government
monitors and governs the activities of the commercial banks, it is unable to enforce all
regulations
Economy of Uzbekistan
24 languages
Article
Talk
Read
Edit
View history
Tools
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Economy of Uzbekistan
Statistics
Population 35,955,400 (2022)[3]
industry: 33.7%
services: 48.5%
(2017 est.)[6]
Inflation (CPI) 14.1% (2020 est.)[4]
services: 60.9%
(2012 est.)[6]
External
Export goods energy products, cotton, gold, mineral fertilizers, ferrous and
Russia 11.6%
Turkey 11.5%
Kazakhstan 6.9%
Kyrgyzstan 5.2%
Afghanistan 3.4%
Tajikistan 2.3%
nonferrous metals[6]
Kazakhstan 10.1%
Turkey 7.6%
Germany 2.8%
Turkmenistan 2.5%
Italy 1.79%
India 1.74%
Public finances
To this point, governmental economic policy reforms had been cautious. Under the
administration of Islam Karimov currency conversion capacity was restricted and many
other government measures to control economic activity, including the implementation
of severe import restrictions and sporadic closures of Uzbekistan's borders with
neighboring Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan led international lending
organizations to suspend or scale back credits.
Uzbekistan is a major producer and exporter of cotton, and bans on cotton import were
implemented in the early 2010s due to international human rights concerns. However, in
2022, the Cotton Campaign and other agencies, including the US Government, lifted all
bans on the import[20] of Uzbek cotton. Uzbekistan is also a big producer of gold, with the
largest open-pit gold mine in the world. The country has substantial deposits of silver,
strategic minerals, gas, and oil.
Since 2016 and the new president Shavkat Mirziyoyev coming to his position, there
have been significant economic reforms in Uzbekistan. The country liberalised the
currency in 2017, allowing freer flows of foreign currency and allowing the import and
export of goods, and the path to foreign investment.[21] 2019 tax reforms also allowed
company consolidation, tax simplification and the professionalisation of the Private
sector.[22] The Government is also committed to privatisation of State Owned Enterprises
(SOEs), with the domestic IPO of UzAuto predicted in 2022.[23]
The Uzbekistan Economic Forum run by the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of
Uzbekistan, brings together IFIs, businesses, government officials and other
stakeholders on an annual basis. The first iteration was in Tashkent, and the Uzbekistan
Economic Forum II took place in Samarkand.[24] In December 2022, the Uzbek
Government received a loan from the World Bank of almost US$1bn to "implement
strategic reforms".[25]
Uzbekistan's GDP, like that of all CIS countries, declined during the first years of
transition and then recovered after 1995, as the cumulative effect of policy reforms
began to be felt. It has shown robust growth, rising by 4% per year between 1998 and
2003, and accelerating thereafter to 7%-8% per year. In 2011 the growth rate came up
to 9%.
Given the growing economy, the total number of people employed rose from 8.5 million
in 1995 to 13.5 million in 2011.[29] This healthy increase of nearly 25% in the labor force
lagged behind the increase in GDP during the same period (64%, see chart), which
implies a significant increase in labor productivity. Official unemployment is very low:
less than 30,000 job seekers were registered in government labor exchanges in 2005-
2006 (0.3% of the labor force).[29] Underemployment, on the other hand, is believed to be
quite high, especially in agriculture, which accounts for fully 28% of all employed, many
of them working part-time on tiny household plots. However, no reliable figures are
available due to the absence of credible labor surveys.
The minimum wage, public-sector wages, and old-age pensions are routinely raised
twice a year to ensure that base income is not eroded by inflation. Although no statistics
are published on average wages in Uzbekistan, pensions as a proxy for the average
wage increased significantly between 1995 and 2006, both in real terms and in U.S.
dollars. The monthly old-age pension increased in real (CPI-adjusted) soums by almost
a factor of 5 between 1995 and 2006.[29] The monthly pension in U.S. dollars was around
$20–$25 until 2000, then dropped to $15–$20 between 2001 and 2004, and now is $64.
The minimum wage was raised to $34.31 in November 2011.[30] Assuming that the
average wages in the country are at a level of 3-4 times the monthly pension, we
estimate the wages in 2006 at $100–$250 per month, or $3–$8 per day.
According to the forecast by the Asian Development Bank, the GDP in Uzbekistan in
2009 is expected to grow by 7%.[31] Meanwhile, in 2010 the Uzbekistan GDP growth is
predicted at 6,5%.[31]
Labor[edit]
Literacy in Uzbekistan is almost universal, and workers are generally well-educated and
trained accordingly in their respective fields. Most local technical and managerial
training does not meet international business standards, but foreign companies
engaged in production report that locally hired workers learn quickly and work
effectively. The government emphasizes foreign education. Each year hundreds of
students are sent to the United States, Europe, and Japan for university degrees, after
which they have a commitment to work for the government for 5 years. Reportedly,
about 60% of students who study abroad find employment with foreign companies upon
completing their degrees, despite their 5-year commitment to work in the government.
Some American companies offer their local employees special training programs in the
United States.
After 2016 Uzbekistan has admitted the lack of higher education offers in the country to
support its labor market needs.[34] Since 2016 a number of higher educational providers
have started operating in Uzbekistan, including in cooperation with foreign universities.
Moreover, private higher education providers started to emerge on the market to
[35]
provide students with necessary skills, knowledge and competencies required on the
labor market. One of the private universities in Tashkent TEAM University aims at
development of skills necessary for starting entrepreneurial activities, thus contributing
to development of businesses and private enterprises.
The severe inflationary pressures that characterized the early years of independence
inevitably led to a dramatic depreciation of the national currency. The exchange rate of
Uzbekistan's first currency, the "notional" rouble inherited from the Soviet period and its
successor, the transient "coupon soum" introduced in November 1993 in a ratio of 1:1 to
the rouble, went up from 100 roubles/US$ in the early 1992 to 3,627 roubles (or coupon
soum) in mid-April 1994. On July 1, 1994 the "coupon soum" was replaced with the
permanent new Uzbek soum (UZS) in a ratio of 1000:1, and the starting exchange rate
for the new national currency was set at 7 soum/US$, implying an almost two-fold
depreciation since mid-April. Within the first six months, between July and December
1994, the national currency depreciated further to 25 soum/US$ and continued
depreciating at a fast clip until December 2002, when the exchange rate had reached
969 soum/US$, i.e., 138 times the starting exchange rate eight and a half years earlier
or nearly 10,000 times the exchange rate in early 1992, soon after the declaration of
independence.[27] Then the depreciation of the soum virtually stopped in response to the
government's stabilization program, which at the same time dramatically reduced the
inflation rates. During the four years that followed (2003–2007) the exchange rate of the
soum to the US dollar increased only by a factor of 1.33, from 969 soum to around
1,865 soum in May 2012.
From 1996 until the spring of 2003, the official and so-called "commercial" exchange
rate – both set administratively by the Central Bank – were highly overvalued. Many
businesses and individuals were unable to buy dollars legally at these "low" rates, so a
widespread black market developed to meet hard currency demand. The spread
between the official exchange rate and the curb rate widened especially after the
Russian financial crisis of August 1998: at the end of 1999 the curb rate stood at
550 soum/US$ compared with the official rate of 140 soum/US$, a gap by nearly a
factor of 4 (up from a factor of "only" 2 in 1997 and the first half of 1998). [36] By mid-2003,
the government's stabilization and liberalization efforts had reduced the gap between
the black market, official, and commercial rates to approximately 8% and it quickly
disappeared as the soum was made convertible after October 2003. Today, four foreign
currencies—the U.S. dollar, the euro, the pound sterling, and the yen—are freely
exchanged in commercial booths all around the cities, while other currencies, including
the Russian rouble and the Kazakh tenge, are bought and sold by individual ("black
market") money changers, who are allowed to operate openly without harassment. The
foreign exchange regime since October 2003 is characterized as "controlled floating
rate".[37] Liberalization of the trade regime remains a prerequisite for Uzbekistan to
proceed to an IMF-financed program. In 2012, "black market" rate is again significantly
higher than official rate, 2,850 soum/US$ vs. 1,865 soum/US$ (as of mid-June 2011).
This curb rate is often referred to as 'bazar rate', because money changers operate at or
near 'bazars' - large farmer markets.
Tax collection rates remained high, due to the use of the banking system by the
government as a collection agency. Technical assistance from the World Bank, Office of
Technical Assistance at the U.S. Treasury Department, and UNDP is being provided in
reforming the Central Bank and Ministry of Finance into institutions capable of
conducting market-oriented fiscal and monetary policy.
Agriculture[edit]
In 2018, Uzbekistan produced:[38]
At the end of 2013, the government announced through the Central Bank of the
Republic of Uzbekistan that it predicted agriculture as playing a major component of the
country's economic development in the future.[39] Agriculture in Uzbekistan employs 28%
of labor force and contributes 24% of GDP (2006 data).[29] Another 8% of GDP is from
processing of domestic agricultural output.[40] Cotton, once Uzbekistan's star cash
earner, has lost much its luster since independence as wheat began to gain prominence
from considerations of food security for the rapidly growing population. Areas cropped to
cotton were reduced by more than 25% from 2 million hectares in 1990 to less than 1.5
million hectares in 2006, while wheat cultivation jumped 60% from around 1 million
hectares in 1990 to 1.6 million hectares in 2006. Cotton production dropped from 3
million tons annually in the pre-independence decade to around 1.2 million tons since
1995, but even at these reduced levels Uzbekistan produces 3 times as much cotton as
all the other Central Asian countries and Azerbaijan combined. Cotton exports tumbled
from highs of around 45% of Uzbekistan's total exports in the early 1990s to 17% in
2006. Uzbekistan is the largest producer of jute in West Asia and it also produces
significant quantities of silk (Uzbek ikat), fruit, and vegetables, with food products
contributing nearly 8% of total exports in 2006. Virtually all agriculture requires irrigation,
but because of budgetary constraints there has been practically no expansion of
irrigated area since independence: it remains static at 4.2 million hectares, the level
reached by 1990 after rapid growth during the Soviet period.
The government's discriminatory pricing for the main cash crops, cotton and wheat, is
apparently responsible for the exceptionally rapid growth of the cattle herd in recent
years, as the prices of milk and meat, like those of fruits and vegetables, are also
determined by market forces. The number of cattle increased from 4 million head in
1990 to 7 million head in 2006, and virtually all these animals are maintained by rural
families with just 2-3 head per household.[29] Sales of own-produced milk, meat, and
vegetables in town markets are an important source for augmenting rural family
incomes.
The Soviet practice of using "volunteer labor" to help gathering the cotton harvest
continues in Uzbekistan where schoolchildren, university students, medical
professionals, and state employees are driven en masse out to the fields every year. [32] A
recent article posted by a domestic news agency (admittedly with strong anti-
government leanings) describes Uzbekistan's cotton as "riches gathered by the hands
of hungry children".[41]
Minerals and mining also are important to Uzbekistan's economy. Gold, alongside
cotton, is a major foreign exchange earner, unofficially estimated at around 20% of total
exports.[33] Uzbekistan is the world's seventh-largest gold producer, mining about 80 tons
per year, and holds the fourth-largest reserves in the world. Uzbekistan has an
abundance of natural gas, used both for domestic consumption and export; oil used for
domestic consumption; and significant reserves of copper, lead, zinc, tungsten,
and uranium. Inefficiency in energy use is generally high, because the low controlled
prices do not stimulate consumers to conserve energy. Uzbekistan is a partner country
of the EU INOGATE energy programme, which has four key topics: enhancing energy
security, convergence of member state energy markets on the basis of EU internal
energy market principles, supporting sustainable energy development, and
attracting investment for energy projects of common and regional interest.[48]
The country's largest steel manufacturer is Uzmetkombinat.[49] The company is planning
an IPO in 2023.[50]
Since the 2017 liberalisation of the foreign exchange market, Uzbekistan has seen rapid
growth in exports. Traditional export products such as gas and cotton are now kept
domestically for processing. They have been replaced by a vast growth in exports in
areas such as fruit,[51] textiles[52] and home appliances. In recent years textile export has
doubled in revenue to almost US$3bn worth of goods exports.[53] Home appliance
manufacturer Artel has seen exports rise from $5.6m in 2017, to around $100m in 2021.
[54]
Before this, the system of multiple exchange rates combined with the highly regulated
trade regime caused both imports and exports to drop each from about US$4.5 billion in
1996 to less than US$3 billion in 2002.[29] The success of stabilization and currency
liberalization in 2003 has led to significant increases in exports and imports in recent
years, although imports have increased much less rapidly: while exports had more than
doubled to US$15.5 by 2011, imports had risen to US$6.5 billion only, reflecting the
impact of the government's import substitution policies designed to maintain hard
currency reserves. Draconian tariffs, sporadic border closures, and border crossing
"fees" have a negative effect on legal imports of both consumer products and capital
equipment.
Banking[edit]
Uzbekistan's banks have demonstrated reasonably stable performance in a largely
state-dominated local economy. Sector stability is currently supported by rapid
economic growth, low exposure to external financial markets and the strong external
and fiscal position of the sovereign. However, the sector remains vulnerable to possible
economic shocks due to weak corporate governance and risk management, fast recent
asset growth, significant directed lending and acquisitions of problem assets. Banks’
foreign currency obligations, specifically those arising from trade finance, are
particularly vulnerable due to existing foreign exchange constraints.[56]
According to Fitch Ratings, there are notable risks of asset quality deterioration in case
of a reversal in economic trends. The funding base is mainly short-term, largely sourced
from corporate current accounts, while retail funds account for only a small 25% of total
deposits. Longer-term funding is provided by the Ministry of Finance and other state
agencies, which comprise a notable proportion of sector liabilities. Foreign funding is
small, estimated at about 10% of the total liabilities, and plans for further borrowings are
moderate. Liquidity management is constrained be the lack of deep capital markets, and
banks generally tend to hold substantial cash reserves on their balance sheets. The
quality of capital is sometimes compromised by less conservative regulatory
requirements for recognition of credit impairment and by investments in non-core
assets.
Retail[edit]
Uzbekistan's retail sector remains dominated by traditional markets, known as bozorlar,
where individual vendors sell food, housewares, clothing, and other consumer goods.
But the country's retail sector is rapidly modernizing.[57] The construction of modern
supermarkets and malls has accelerated in recent years.[58] The country's retail market
was estimated at $17 billion in 2017 and rising incomes, population growth, and a move
from informal to formal retail are expected to drive continued expansion of the sector.
[59]
Major supermarket chains include local players Korzinka.uz and Makro
(Uzbekistan) and the French multinational chain Carrefour, which will open its first store
in Uzbekistan in 2021.[60] The country's first modern shopping malls are located in
Tashkent, and include the Samarkand Darvoza and Compass developments. The
sector has also seen growth in online retail.[61] In 2021, Korzinka acquired a US$40m
stake in Angelsey Foods, the Singapore mother entity of Korzinka.[62] In 2021, the
company also signed a signed $12 million in debt financing to promote food security
and sustain the livelihoods of more than 5,000 employees and 1,200 farm workers in
Uzbekistan.[63]
Tourism[edit]
Main article: Tourism in Uzbekistan
Miscellaneous data[edit]
The following table shows the main economic indicators in 1993–2017.[66]
199 199 200 200 200 200 200 200 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201
Year
3 5 0 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
GDP in 38.2 37.4 49. 71. 79. 89. 99. 108 118 131 144 158 174 190 207 222
$ 1 2 15 64 39 24 18 .03 .65 .15 .52 .60 .36 .17 .62 .56
(PPP) Bln. Bln. Bln. Bln. Bln. Bln. Bln. Bln. Bln. Bln. Bln. Bln. Bln. Bln. Bln. Bln.
GDP
per
1,74 1,64 2,0 2,7 3,0 3,3 3,6 3,9 4,2 4,6 4,8 5,2 5,6 6,0 6,5 6,9
capita
8 9 05 64 20 49 72 46 77 55 54 44 69 76 19 29
in $
(PPP)
GDP
−2.6 −0.9 3.8 7.0 7.5 9.5 9.0 8.1 8.5 8.3 8.2 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.8 5.3
growth
% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
(real)
Inflatio
n 534. 304. 25. 10. 13. 11. 13. 12. 12. 12. 11. 11. 9.1 8.5 8.0 12.
(in 2% 6% 0% 7% 1% 1% 1% 3% 3% 4% 9% 7% % % % 5%
Percent)