Presentation Dell
Presentation Dell
Presentation Dell
Eleonora Guarnieri
Outline
Historical Background
Results
Outline
Historical Background
Results
Research question
This paper:
I Examines the long-run impacts of the mining mita, a forced
labor system instituted by the Spanish government in Peru and
Bolivia (1573-1812)
I Implements a geographic (multidimensional) regression
discontinuity (RD) design across the mita boundary
I Identifies statistically significant impacts on:
I Contemporary living standards
I Channels of persistence (land tenure and public goods
provision)
Contributions
1. Methodological
I Multidimensional, semiparametric Regression Discontinuity
approach
2. Literature on long-run development
I First paper focusing on channels of persistence and potential
mechanisms
I Starting point for modeling Latin America’s long-run growth
trajectory → role of large landowners in shielding individuals
from an extractive state; extent to which the state can be used
to shape economic interactions
Outline
Historical Background
Results
Outline
Historical Background
Results
Mining Mita
↓
I Land tenure and labor systems
I Public goods
I Proximate determinants of household consumption
↓
Long run development:
I Household consumption
I Stunting in children
↓
Long run development:
I Household consumption
I Stunting in children
Mining Mita
↓
I Land tenure and labor systems
I Public goods
I Proximate determinants of household consumption
↓
Long run development:
I Household consumption - 2001 Peruvian National Household Survey
I Stunting in children - Census from the Ministry of Education
Estimation Strategy
Di = 1{Xi ≥ c}
(
1 if Xi ≥ c
Di =
0 if Xi < c
Multidimensional RDD
Estimation Strategy
Basic Regression
cidb = α + γmitad + f (geographic locationd ) + Xid0 β + Φb + idb
where:
Estimation Strategy
Basic Regression
cidb = α + γmitad + f (geographic locationd ) + Xid0 β + Φb + idb
where:
I Semiparametric vs nonparametric RD
I Georeferencing
I Sample size
Example with:
I Cubic polynomial in latitude and longitude
I 100 km bandwidth
Identifying assumptions
1. Continuity
Identification requires:
E [c1 | x, y ] and E [c0 | x, y ] are continuous at the discontinuity
threshold
1. Continuity
1. Continuity
1. Continuity
1. Continuity
1. Continuity Conley
1. Continuity
1. Continuity
2. No Selective Sorting
I Violated if the mita effect directly provoked substantial
out-migration of productive individuals, leading to a larger
indirect effect
I Explore the possibility of migration as an interesting channel of
persistence
I Low migration rates in the past 130 years → constant
aggregate population distribution
I No statistically significant differences in rates of out-migration
between mita and non-mita districts (1993 census)
I Outmigration from mita districts during the period that the
mita was in force may have been substantial → evidence
from 17th century population data
Outline
Historical Background
Results
Mining Mita
↓
I Land tenure and labor systems
I Public goods
I Proximate determinants of household consumption
↓
Long run development:
I Household consumption
I Stunting in children
Household consumption
Household consumption
Cubic polynomial in distance to Potosí
Household consumption
Cubic polynomial in distance to Potosí
Mining Mita
↓
I Land tenure and labor systems
I Public goods
I Proximate determinants of household consumption
↓
Long run development:
I Household consumption
I Stunting in children
Stunting in children
RD Plots
Mining Mita
↓
I Land tenure and labor systems
I Public goods
I Proximate determinants of household consumption
↓
Long run development:
I Household consumption
I Stunting in children
Mining Mita
↓
I Land tenure and labor systems
I Public goods
I Proximate determinants of household consumption
↓
Long run development:
I Household consumption
I Stunting in children
Public goods
Mining Mita
↓
I Land tenure and labor systems
I Public goods
I Proximate determinants of household consumption
↓
Long run development:
I Household consumption
I Stunting in children
Outline
Historical Background
Results
Conclusion
Literature
I RD Design
Hahn, J., P. Todd, & W. Van der Klaauw (2001): Identification and estimation of treatment effects with
a regression-discontinuity design. Econometrica, 69, 201-209
Imbens, G. W. & T. Lemieux (2008): Regression discontinuity designs: A guide to practice. Journal of
Econometrics, 142, 615-635
Lee, D. S. & T. Lemieux (2010), Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics. Journal of Economic
Literature, 48, 281-355
McCrary, J. (2008) Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density
test. Journal of Econometrics, 142, 698-714
Literature
I Multidimensional RD Design
Bayer, P; F. Ferreira, & R. McMillan (2007): A unified framework for measuring preferences for schools
and neighborhoods. Journal of Political Economy, 115(4), 588-638
Black, S. E. (1999) Do better schools matter? Parental valuation of elementary education. Quarterly
Journal of Economics, 114(2), 577-599
Dell, M., N. Lane, P. Querubin (2017): The Historical State, Local Collective Action, and Economic
Development in Vietnam. Working Paper
Keele, L., S. Lorch, M. Passarella, D. Small & R. Titiunik (2016): An Overview of Geographically
Discontinuous Treatment Assignments with an Application to Children’s Health Insurance. Advances in
Econometrics, 38
Keele, L. & R. Titiunik (2016): Natural experiments based on geography. Political Science Research and
Methods, 4, 65-95
Discussion
Discussion
2. → Continuity assumption: A portion of the mita’s border
coincides with today’s border between the Aruepica and Cusco
regions → the first-level administrative unit in Peru
Peru administrative divisions
Questions/comments?
Appendix
Specification tests
.04
.015
.03
Density
Density
.01
.02
.005
.01
0
0
-100 -50 0 50 100 -100 -50 0 50 100
Distance to border in km distance to border in km