MEMO

To: Trust in the Mission PAC Donors

The Fall Republican primary is stuck. Donald Trump leads a cluster of statistically tied
contenders by a wide margin. Vote share of non-Trump candidates trades up and down, but no
campaign has achieved break away velocity. The fundamentals of this race remain unchanged:
President Donald Trump occupies a lane to himself.

Presidents don’t copy others. They have the confidence to be themselves. For a generation,
Democrats offered JFK clones, Republicans tried to copy Reagan, and now we have a stage full
of people doing their best Donald Trump impressions. But copycats never win.

Tim Scott offers our country something different – a way forward. Tim is a strong conservative
with his own style who can bring our party and our country back together again. I don’t need to
tell you what you see every day on the news. This is a crucial moment for the world. The
leadership we send to the Oval Office next year will be decisive in shaping the future of our
country.

Earlier this year, the anyone-but-Trump experts told the Party that Gov. DeSantis was going to
defeat Trump, and good Republicans should clear the field. We ignored them and launched the
most upbeat, inspirational, and conservative effort this primary electorate has seen in a decade.

Now those same experts are calling for the field to be cleared for Gov. Haley. We also reject this
advice. Campaigns have seen the polling. They have spoken to the grassroots. No serious
person thinks a moderate will win this primary no matter how many elite insiders champion their
candidacies.

President Trump has played to his strengths, effectively defined Gov. DeSantis, and now he will
define Gov. Haley. Both campaigns argue they are a “Trump but fill-in-the-blank” alternative for
primary voters. Trump will negatively define them based on this flawed logic. They are national
figures because of Trump. This authenticity gap in their presidential narrative will be exploited.
Trump knows this, they know this and that is why DeSantis and Haley have only traded vote
share.

Tim Scott is the only candidate running a different campaign. Instead of being yet another
Trump facsimile, the Scott campaign has spoken about creating opportunity, defeating the
liberal narrative, and proposed the most substantive conservative policy program of the race.
Until the experts recognize Tim is the only candidate that can capture the nomination and defeat
President Joe Biden, there will be a very expensive and loud next few months – full of sound
and fury and signifying nothing.

So, we are doing what would be obvious in the business world but will mystify politicos – we
aren’t going to waste our money when the electorate isn’t focused or ready for a Trump
alternative. We have done the research. We have studied the focus groups. We have been
following Tim on the trail. This electorate is locked up and money spent on mass media isn’t
going to change minds until we get a lot closer to voting.

Starting today, we are going to release all of our Fall media inventory. We will continue to fully
fund our grassroots door knocking, conduit fundraising, event hosting, and earned media efforts.
This summer we built up Tim’s name identification, likeability, and brand. In July, we laid down a
Fall media reservation as a second phase to be prepared for the possibility of a coalesced field
and the resulting protracted head-to-head election. The field remains splintered, so we will be
patient.

Thankfully we have engaged, innovative and thoughtful investors in TIM PAC who have
counseled us to ‘follow the data, not the media.’

Some will challenge our theory of the election, but we would ask these critics to produce any
evidence that shows any candidate, at this time, at any spending level, breaking through. Win It
Back admitted what all the anti-Trump campaigns are learning: after spending $6M to run 40
anti-Trump television ads, they concluded that “all attempts to undermine his conservative
credentials on specific issues were ineffective.” We look forward to the Never-Trump field
wasting millions this Fall trying to disprove this.

We continue to build for the moments that matter. Facts drive this decision:
● Tim Scott is the most likable Republican in America.
● As with Reagan and Obama, long-term favorability overcomes short-term name
identification. You can’t manufacture the first and debates and earned media will fix the
latter.
● Tim is in true ideological alignment with the primary electorate.
● Tim’s story is the American story, built day by day, brick by brick, without any other
politician propping it up.

Once the voters truly engage and are ready for a new conservative direction – we will be ready
to engage in broadcast media to help Tim earn our party’s nomination.
To Tim, the campaign, and our supporters, we will borrow from the Great Seal of the State of
South Carolina and conclude with ‘Animis Opibusque Parati.’

We are prepared in mind and resources.

God Bless,
How We Got to This Decision
Tim started this race as the most-liked candidate in the field. Our task in the early phase has
been two-fold: introduce him to Republican primary voters while retaining that favorability and
do so early enough that he qualifies for the RNC debates. We have succeeded. Tim Scott
remains the most favorably viewed candidate in the eyes of primary voters, even as the share of
them with an opinion of Tim Scott has roughly doubled. Based on his donor numbers and the
RNC’s published polling criteria, he will qualify for the remaining debates.

Having met our early objectives, we are moving into a second phase. Over the summer, we
used our considerable resources to get a continuous run of fall airtime at a fraction of the cost
our competitors are paying now. We did that to prepare for one possible eventuality: a clearing
primary field, leading to a protracted Scott-Trump head-to-head battle. But the field has not
cleared. Therefore, consistent with our planning for this scenario, we do not believe that this
approach meets our strategic needs.

At least two thirds of Iowa caucus-goers will make their decision in the six weeks before Caucus
Day. Spending heavily on television from now until then would be a waste of money. We are
going to pivot towards greater direct-engagement in-state, such as hosting more grassroots TIM
PAC events – including events featuring Tim Scott as our special guest – and expanding our
already-considerable field program.

Our opponents will rush in to buy up this newly-available inventory at full freight and continue to
squander their money attacking one another – alienating voters along the way. That will only
grow the already considerable favorability gap between Tim Scott and his competitors. At
caucus-time, Iowans will look at a series of indistinguishable, battered candidates who have
exhausted their campaigns in a deluge of negativity. Tim Scott will shine by contrast.

Tim Scott is the best fit for the Iowa electorate – no amount of wishful thinking from others will
change that. In a news environment dominated by two wars and a chaotic scrum over the
Speakership, TV money will simply be wasted. Voters are tuning out a political race where no
one will caucus for more than three months. When they do plug in, Republican voters simply will
not accept a Trump alternative hoisted upon them by the same pundits and insiders who tried –
unsuccessfully – to thwart a Trump nomination in 2016.

We believe that shifting from a media-centric to a grassroots-focused approach is the best use
of our money. This enables us to leverage our greatest asset, Tim Scott himself. Offering Tim
Scott the chance to interact with as many voters as possible as a guest at TIM PAC events
across the Hawkeye State will help his campaign build standing with caucus-goers. These
events will also help TIM PAC and further expand our army of grassroots activists.

Ultimately, this will preserve Tim’s high consideration score, familiarize him with a demanding
and informed electorate, and leave Tim better positioned than other candidates to win a race
that is already turning severely negative.
LATE MOVEMENT
Early State Timeline
● Early state voters historically move late, meaning smart campaigns preserve resources
until voters are tuned in.

● On this date in 2015, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina were 2nd and 3rd in the Real Clear
Politics polling average of Iowa, ahead of eventual caucus winner Ted Cruz. Neither of
those two finished in the top 3 in any early state.

● Similarly in New Hampshire, John Kasich and Ted Cruz – the eventual 2nd and 3rd place
finishers – sat in 6th and 7th respectively in the RCP average.

● Iowa and New Hampshire will set the stage for Tim’s home state of South Carolina,
where he will perform extremely well after strong performances in the aforementioned
states.

● Bottom line: performances in Iowa and New Hampshire matter more than national
narratives. Some candidates are wasting their money simply to appeal to certain insiders
who wish to play kingmaker and to win media narratives early in the race.

BUILT FOR JANUARY & BEYOND

● A recent poll of New Hampshire primary voters found Tim with the highest favorability
rating, at 69%. In fact, Tim lapped the field – his “net favorability” rating (favorable minus
unfavorable percentage) was an astonishing +51. The second highest was just +37.

● The story is similar in Iowa, where Tim regularly has the highest “consideration”
scores (people who are considering voting for him) in surveys. Even an internal poll
released by another campaign found that Tim had the best net favorable rating (+56) of
any candidate.

The Hard-Dollar Advantage

● The campaign reported more than $12 million in cash on hand, with a disproportionate
share comprised of primary dollars.

● Those advantages, coupled with the work being done by TIM PAC in a supporting role,
enable Tim to go the distance.
We are hard at work making sure that future is a bright one. It begins by shutting out the noise
and remaining laser focused on Tim Scott’s success in the early states.