FLORIDA HD-35 POLL:

REPUBLICAN VOTERS ARE SPLIT

ON TRUMP VS. DESANTIS AND
SUPPORT THE WAR ON DISNEY

June 15, 2023

P: (929) 388-6585
E: info@victory-insights.com
W: victory-insights.com
: @VictoryPolling

Poll conducted June 7-9, 2023 among registered

Republican voters throughout Florida’s 35th State
House District. Responses were collected via IVR and
text-to-web.

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Table of Contents
1 Cover Page
2 Table of Contents and Executive Summary
3 District Overview
4 2024 Presidential Primary Preferences
5 The War on Disney
6 Stances on Abortion
7 Contact Information

Executive Summary
Representative Fred Hawkins (R) will be leaving the Florida legislature any day now
after being tapped by the Governor to lead South Florida State College. He will leave behind a
purple district, which voted for Biden in 2020 yet elected a Republican to the legislature. Both
Democrats and Republicans have their sights set on winning his district, located to the
southeast of Orlando. The upcoming special election will almost certainly be an all-hands-on-
deck fight between the Florida GOP and the Florida Democrats. But first, each party needs to
choose which candidate they’ll be putting in the ring.
It is this process, particularly on the Republican side, which this poll and research
packet hope to address. Republican candidates must be informed on which issues are
winning, and which issues are losing. In order to win the primary, they must understand who
their voters are, what they believe, and the vision they have for Florida – and for the country
as a whole – moving forward.
That starts with the 2024 presidential election, which is at the forefront of everyone’s
minds right now, particularly in Florida. Our poll finds that neither former President Donald
Trump nor Florida Governor Ron DeSantis hold a statistically significant lead over one another,
whether in the full ballot or in a head-to-head ballot. Accordingly, FL HD-35 candidates should
be wary of picking sides, as their electorate is evenly split between the two frontrunners.
That being said, DeSantis enjoys slightly higher favorability numbers than Trump, likely
due in part to a number of recent developments that the district’s Republicans seem to
support. For instance, 76% of voters support the six week abortion ban DeSantis recently
signed into law, while 69% support DeSantis’s battles against Disney. Interestingly, although
Lake Nona borders the district, voters are largely unconcerned about the economic impacts of
Disney’s decision to cancel plans to create thousands of jobs in the Lake Nona region, with
only about 26% of the electorate believing that that will negatively impact the local economy.
The date for the inevitable special election has not yet been set, and the field of
candidates is still taking shape. Once we know who exactly is running – and who’s backing
who – we’ll be able to get a better picture of what’s in store for the next few months. For now,
however, all we can do is attempt to understand the voters who will soon decide the race.
Read on to do just that.

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District Overview
The charts below detail key data points on Republican primary voters in Florida’s 35 th
House District. Generally, they are older Central Florida voters in the upper-middle class.

Socioeconomic Status
Although there are voters across all ten steps of the socioeconomic ladder, the highest
concentration is in the 7 to 9 range, with 57% of voters falling within this upper-middle
class category. An additional 24% are in the 5 to 6 range, also in the middle class.
30%
25%
25%
20% 17%
14% 15%
15%
10%
10% 6% 6%
5% 3% 3%
0%
0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Age Breakdown
Seniors make up a sizeable portion of the electorate, with 46% of voters aged 60 or older.
Another 38% are between the ages of 40 and 59, while only 15% are 39 or younger.
30%
23% 24%
25%
20%
15% 15%
15%
9%
10% 6% 6%
5%
1%
0%
18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89 90+

Geographic Breakdown
The district is split between two counties and three congressional districts. The two main
congressional districts (9 and 10) are both currently represented by Democrats, while
Rep. Bill Posey (R) represents the 3% of voters in District 8.
Congressional District County
8th 3.0% Orange County 69.9%
9th 43.2% Osceola County 30.1%
10th 53.8%

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2024 Presidential Primary Preferences

Trump and DeSantis are statistically tied for the 2024 nomination, while about 1 in 10 FL
HD-35 voters remain undecided. However, DeSantis is slightly more popular than Trump.
Regardless, candidates would be wise not to disparage either one of the two frontrunners.

Full Ballot
Trump has a narrow yet statistically insignificant lead over DeSantis when all candidates
are included in the survey. Other candidates garner 15% of the vote, while 10% of voters
still remain undecided.

Donald Trump 38.4%

Ron DeSantis 36.5%

Other Candidates 15.1%

Undecided 10.0%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0%

Head-to-Head Ballot
When the field shrinks to only the two frontrunners, DeSantis gains the edge, but again
falls within the margin of error of Trump. 12% of voters remain undecided.

Donald Trump 43.4%

Ron DeSantis 44.7%

Undecided 11.9%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0%

Candidate Favorability
We asked respondents to rate Trump and DeSantis on a scale from 1 to 5, with 1 being
very negative and 5 being very positive. DeSantis earned an average rating of 3.88, far
outpacing Trump’s 3.24. Nevertheless, both candidates received a positive rating (defined
as a 4 or a 5) from a majority of respondents.

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The War on Disney

While the vast majority of voters are supportive of DeSantis’s ongoing battles against
Disney, there remains a subset of the electorate that is skeptical of the Governor’s fight.
25% oppose DeSantis’s legal battles, and 26% are concerned that Disney’s scrapping of
their Lake Nona plans will have a negative impact on the local economy. Clearly, though, it
would be political malpractice to side with Disney over DeSantis, as most Republicans in
the district remain firmly in the Governor’s corner.

Governor Ron DeSantis has recently engaged in an ongoing legal battle with Disney. Do
you support or oppose Ron DeSantis's decision to take on the Walt Disney Company?
More than two thirds of the district’s voters support DeSantis’s battle against Disney, while
just under a quarter oppose it.

24.6% 6.8% 68.7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Oppose No Opinion Support

Disney recently announced that it is canceling plans to create 2,000 jobs in and around
the Lake Nona area. What effect do you feel this will have on the local economy?
Despite the fact that the Lake Nona region lies on the edge of District 35’s boundaries,
voters are generally unconcerned about the economic impact of Disney’s canceled plans,
with 62% saying it’ll have no effect on the local economy. That being said, about twice as
many voters said it’ll have a negative effect (26%) than a positive effect (13%).

12.6% 13.1% 61.5% 6.7% 6.0%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Very Negative Somewhat Negative No Effect Somewhat Positive Very Positive

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Stances on Abortion
FL HD-35 Republicans are largely pro-life, with 76% supporting Florida’s new six-week
abortion ban and 66% considering themselves pro-life to some degree. However, that also
means just over a third of the electorate is pro-choice – although most of those voters still
support meaningful limits on abortions.

Which of the following options most closely aligns with your views on a woman’s right to
obtain an abortion? Do you consider yourself strictly pro-choice, pro-choice with
meaningful limits, strictly pro-life, or pro-life with meaningful exceptions?
About two thirds of the FL HD-35 Republican electorate identifies as pro-life, while another
24% consider themselves “pro-choice, with meaningful limits.” Only 10% identify as strictly
pro-choice. Nearly half of voters (47%) consider themselves “pro-life, with meaningful
exceptions,” while only 18% are strictly pro-life.
60.0%

50.0% 47.3%

40.0%

30.0% 24.1%
18.2%
20.0%
10.4%
10.0%

0.0%
Strictly Pro-Choice Pro-Choice, With Pro-Life, With Strictly Pro-Life
Meaningful Limits Meaningful Exceptions

Governor Ron DeSantis recently signed legislation to ban abortions six weeks after
conception, except for cases involving rape and incest. Do you support or oppose the six-
week abortion ban recently signed into law in Florida?
The district’s Republicans are largely supportive of Florida’s new six-week abortion bill,
with more than 75% of voters giving it their stamp of approval. Only 19% oppose it.

19.1% 5.4% 75.5%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Oppose No Opinion Support

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@VictoryPolling
info@victory-insights.com
victory-insights.com
(929) 388-6585

www.victory-insights.com