Air Pollution (Guy Hutton)
Air Pollution (Guy Hutton)
Air Pollution (Guy Hutton)
Presentation Overview
The problem The range of solutions The costs of selected solutions The benefits of selected solutions Benefit-cost ratios Interpretation of results Issues in scaling up the solutions
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Rule of 1000: pollutant released indoors is 1000 times more likely to reach peoples lungs than one released outdoors
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Global mean tropospheric NO2 vertical column density (VCD) 01/2003 06/2004. University of Heidelberg.
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Indoor Air
Costs and benfits of the solution Few cost-benefit studies of indoor air pollution interventions One study by WHO evaluated global and regional costs and benefits of selected indoor air pollution interventions:
Solid fuels to LPG or ethanol Improved stoves
All evaluated for MDG target and universal access, also with a separate pro-poor analysis This presentation shows the MDG analysis
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13
500
300
200
100
0
AFR-D AFR-E AMR-B AMR-D EMR-B EMR-D EUR-B EUR-C SEAR-B SEAR-D WPR-B
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-2000
Morbidity 1%
Morbidity 0%
DALY = US$5,000
10 8 6 4 2 0
AFR-D AFR-E AMR-D EMR-D SEAR-B SEAR-D WPR-B World
10 8 6 4 2 0
AFR-D AFR-E AMR-D EMR-D SEAR-B SEAR-D WPR-B World
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DALY = US$5,000
120 100 80 60 40 20 0
AFR-D AFR-E AMR-D EMR-D SEAR-B SEAR-D WPR-B World
120 100 80 60 40 20 0
AFR-D AFR-E AMR-D EMR-D SEAR-B SEAR-D WPR-B World
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LPG
Benefit-Cost Ratio
1. St ov e co st s&
AFR-D Region
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10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
0.0
5.0
ef fic ien cy pr ic e s Fu el
n) l y) nt sa v Tr ee em om i sc l y) in g co is s io ic ou va l nt s st ns
Low
High
Base case
ue ra te
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Outdoor Air
- e.g. transport
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Interventions presented focus mainly on fuel switching or technological solutions Studies mainly from developed countries
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1. US Federal Regulations Policy National emissions standards for hazardous air pollutants Scope Country-wide Year 1994-2004 Cost US$15 - US$17 billion annually Benefit Health US$41 - US$218 billion annually BCR 2.72 - 13.0
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2. United States EPA Clean Air Act Clean Air Act Country-wide 1990 - 2010 US$19 billion annually in 2000 Rising to US$27 billion annually in 2010 Benefit Health, crop damage, visibility US$71 billion annually in 2000 Rising to US$110 billion annually BCR 3.8
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3. European clean air targets Policy Reductions in emissions to meet air quality targets for CO, heavy metals, ozone, hydrocarbons Scope Europe-wide Cost Euro 7 billion annually Benefit Mortality, morbidity, hospital admissions (from PM and ozone) Euro 42 billion annually BCR 6.0
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4. UK Air Quality Strategy review Policy Scope Year Cost Benefit 17 policy measures to achieve AQS Country-wide 2005 - 2020 374 - 866 million annually Health 566 - 2021 million annually 0.9 3.8
BCR
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5. China natural gas project Policy Substituting natural gas for coal in residential and commercial uses Scope Beijing and Chongqing Year 1998 - 2018 Cost Capital investment year 0 Beij. 3.5 bn RBM; Chong. 0.7 bn RMB Benefit Health annual figures Beij. 2.1 bn RBM; Chong. 4.9 bn RMB NPV Beij: 6.9 bn RMB; Chong: 18.6 bn RMB IRR Beij: 29%; Chong: 75%
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6. Shanghai Emission Control Emissions control in power and industry Shanghai 2010-2020 Power: US$395 million annually Industry: US$94 million annually Benefit Mortality, morbidity, work days (PM10) Power: US$417 million annually Industry: US$266 million annually 2.0 (power) and 5.4 (industry)
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BCR
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policy epochs Scope Country-wide Year 1968-73; 1974-1983; 1984-93 Cost (1) 5,576 bn Yen; (2) 15,991 bn Yen (3) 9,354 bn Yen Benefit Morbidity, work days (1) 30,058 bn Yen; (2) 18,818 bn Yen; (3) 3,854 bn Yen BCR (1) 5.39; (2) 1.18; (3) 0.41
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Other studies presenting BCRs Air pollution reductions in Hungary: 3.0 17.0 Emissions reductions in the oil extraction industry in Kazakhstan: 5.7 Nitric oxide and NO2 emissions reductions in Tokyo (1974 to 1993): 6.0 Pollution control programme in Canada: 3.0
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Large uncertainties in health impact estimations Economic results highly dependent on valuation techniques e.g. value of life
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Financing
Cost savings make some interventions attractive Environmental benefits are externalities
Other issues
Regulations need to be respected (policing costs) Access to markets and technologies
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