Argus European Products

Daily European product market prices, news and analysis

Issue 18-1 | Tuesday 2 January 2018

MARKET COMMENTARY PRICES

Gasoline cargoes Northwest Europe light products $/t

Low High ±
Finished-grade cargo prices tracked weaker underlying barge
prices at the start of the week. fob
95R gasoline 10ppm 616.75 617.25 -1.50
Activity was slow to pick up pace in the cargo markets
91R gasoline 600.00 600.50 -1.50
on the first trading day of the year. Tanker bookings to west cif
Africa continued to emerge, against a backdrop of tight sup- 95R gasoline 10ppm 627.75 628.25 -1.25
91R gasoline 611.75 612.25 -1.50
plies in Nigeria. Lukoil booked the Hellas Exporter to load
Naphtha 65 para 592.00 593.00 +0.50
37,000t of clean product — likely gasoline — in the ARA re- barge
gion on 3 January, while an unknown charterer provisionally 98R gasoline 688.50 689.00 -1.50
booked the Hafnia Atlantic to load 37,000t at an unspecified 95R gasoline 10ppm* +3.75
95R gasoline 10ppm 615.50 616.00 +1.25
European terminal on 4 January. Both tankers were booked Eurobob oxy 611.75 612.25 -1.50
to load for west Africa. Eurobob non-oxy 617.00 617.50 -1.50
Differentials to underlying Eurobob oxy barges for 91R gasoline 611.75 612.25 -1.50
MTBE 685.25 685.75 -1.63
finished-grade cargoes held steady in both northwest Europe MTBE factor 1.12
and the Mediterranean regions. No gasoline cargoes were ETBE 880.25 880.75 -1.63
sought or offered in the afternoon window. ETBE diff to MTBE 195.00
Naphtha 65 para (cif) 590.00 591.00 +0.50
*differential to Eurobob oxy midpoint
Gasoline barges
Outright Eurobob oxy gasoline barge prices fell on the year's West Mediterranean light products $/t
first trading day, with a new participant entering the mar- Low High ±
ket. fob
Hartree sold its first Argus Eurobob oxy barge: Finco 95R gasoline 10ppm 620.25 620.75 -1.50
bought 2,000t from the trading firm at $614.50/t on a fob Naphtha 65 para 573.25 574.25 +1.50
cif
Amsterdam-Rotterdam basis. Litasco and Total each sold 95R gasoline 10ppm 631.00 631.50 -1.75
2,000t barges to CCMA and Shell, respectively. A total of Naphtha 65 para 584.00 585.00 +1.25
6,000t of Eurobob oxy gasoline changed hands on prompt
Argus loading dates at a volume-weighted average price Ice settlements
of $612/t, compared to $613.50/t on 29 December. Barges Gasoil Brent 1-minute
Contract $/t $/bl

Eurobob oxy gasoline barges S/t Jan 597.00 na

Feb 598.50 na
650 Mar 596.75 66.29

CONTENTS
625

Gasoline 1
600 Middle distillates 2
Fuel oil and VGO 3
575 Bunkers 4
News 7-10
Announcements 8,10
550
Deals done 11
Month-to-date averages 12
525 Swaps 13
2 Oct 17 31 Oct 17 29 Nov 17 2 Jan 18 Freight 14

Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group

Argus European Products Issue 18-1 | Tuesday 2 January 2018

traded at an average $1.66/t discount to February swaps. Assessment rationale

Eurobob non-oxy gasoline for E10 blending was assessed Gasoline Eurobob oxy grade NWE barges (PA0005643)
unchanged at a $5.25/t premium to Eurobob oxy. In the af- were assessed at $612/t, using a volume-weighted aver-
ternoon trading window, Gunvor sold 1,000t of Eurobob oxy age of trades meeting Argus criteria. These trades are
gasoline to Shell at $609/t for 9-13 January dates. listed in Argus European Products and published on the
Also in the afternoon window, Total purchased two Argus gasoline bulletin board.
1,000t lots of finished-grade gasoline from Gunvor at $613/t,
equivalent to a $2/t premium to February swaps at 16:30 Northwest Europe middle distillates $/t
Ice Differential
GMT. Northwest European finished-grade gasoline barges
were assessed at a $3.75/t premium to Eurobob oxy gasoline mth Low High Low High ±

barges, on the basis of observed market activity. fob

Along Germany's Rhine river, it was unclear whether Jet - - - 628.25 629.25 -2.75
heavy rain later this week — and the subsequent expected Diesel French 10ppm - - - 586.75 587.75 -5.50
Diesel German 10ppm - - - 588.75 589.75 -4.00
rise in water levels — would materially impact German
Heating oil 0.1%S - - - 585.50 586.50 -3.25
demand for ARA gasoline barges. Talk of barge congestion in Heating oil German 50ppm - - - 586.25 587.25 -3.25
the ARA region could not be widely confirmed. cif
Jet Jan +40.00 +41.00 637.00 638.00 -2.75
Diesel UK ULS Jan +0.25 +1.25 597.25 598.25 -4.00
Naphtha Diesel French 10ppm Jan -1.50 -0.50 595.50 596.50 -5.50
Naphtha's premium to front-month Ice Brent futures edged Diesel German 10ppm Jan +0.50 +1.50 597.50 598.50 -4.00
up on Tuesday, despite stiffer competition from rival feed- Heating oil 0.1%S Jan -2.75 -1.75 594.25 595.25 -3.25
stock propane in the cracking pool. Heating oil German 50ppm Jan -2.00 -1.00 595.00 596.00 -3.25
barge
The arrival of a few US propane cargoes into Europe in Jet Jan +36.75 +37.25 633.75 634.25 -3.25
recent weeks boosted the competitiveness of propane rela- Diesel German 10ppm Jan -0.75 -0.25 596.25 596.75 -2.75
tive to naphtha as a petrochemical feedstock. In northwest Heating oil 0.1%S Jan -7.00 -6.50 590.00 590.50 -3.25
Heating oil German 50ppm Jan -6.00 -5.00 591.00 592.00 -2.25
Europe, the naphtha premium to propane surged to $33/t on
15-29 December, up from $12/t in the first half of the month.
No trade took place in the afternoon trading window. West Mediterranean middle distillates $/t
Glencore offered a 32,000t cargo at $593/t and a smaller Ice Differential
mth Low High Low High ±
12,500t cargo at $596/t. Meanwhile, the highest bid of the
afternoon trading session came from Shell, which sought a fob
Jet - - - 619.00 620.00 -1.75
32,000t cargo at $592/t. An additional five bids for smaller
Diesel French 10ppm - - - 589.00 590.00 -3.00
12,500t cargoes also came from Statoil, Shell, Petroineos,
Heating oil 0.1%S - - - 586.75 587.75 -3.00
Litasco and Glencore in the $590-591/t range. cif
Naphtha was assessed at $592.50/t, the midpoint be- Jet Jan +39.00 +40.00 636.00 637.00 -2.75
tween the best bids and best offer. January and February Jet diff to fob Med - +16.50 +17.50 - - -1.00
swaps were trading at $590/t and $582/t, respectively, nar- Diesel French 10ppm Jan +2.75 +3.75 599.75 600.75 -3.25
rowing the January premium to February by 50¢/t. Naphtha Diesel 10ppm diff to spot - -2.25 -1.25 - - -0.25
Heating oil 0.1%S Jan +0.50 +1.50 597.50 598.50 -3.25
outright prices firmed slightly against marginally weaker
Brent crude futures, which edged 4¢/bl down to $66.29/
bl by 16:30 GMT. The naphtha notional premium to crude
subsequently widened by 9¢/bl to 28¢/bl. Jet
No barge trades took place on the Argus Open Markets Northwest European jet fuel prices fell in line with a $3.25/t
platform, and prices increased in line with cargoes, up by decline in Ice January gasoil, offsetting a 50¢/t gain in cargo
50¢/t to $590.50/t. premiums to the futures contract.
Gazprom booked the FSL Singapore to load a 37,000t Liquidity was thin for both barges and cargoes during the
naphtha cargo with northwest Europe and transatlantic afternoon session, with no deals concluded in either market.
discharge options, loading from an unspecified Baltic port on There were three bids from BP, Shell and Vitol for 30,000t
7 January. cargoes, all cif Le Havre, while no offers emerged.

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Argus European Products Issue 18-1 | Tuesday 2 January 2018

Vitol’s was the only bid against Ice gasoil. The firm was Northwest Europe fuel oil and VGO $/t
Low High ±
seeking a cargo for delivery during 12-21 January at a $40/t
premium to January gasoil. The cargo premium to the fu- fob
Fuel oil 1%S 366.75 370.75 +4.75
tures contract rose by 50¢/t to $40.50/t to reflect the higher
Fuel oil 3.5%S 346.00 350.00 +3.50
bid. Fuel oil straight-run 0.5%S 447.25 450.75 -0.25
In the barge market, there was a single bid and single Fuel oil straight-run 0.5%S* $/bl -1.00 -0.50 nc
VGO 0.5%S 489.25 492.75 -0.38
offer which emerged either side of the prevailing assessment
VGO 0.5%* $/bl +4.75 +5.25 nc
of a $37/t premium to Ice January gasoil. The barge assess- VGO 2.0%S 472.25 475.50 -0.25
ment remained unchanged. Shell was looking to buy 2,000- VGO 2.0%* $/bl +3.00 +3.50 nc
cif
3,000t fob FARAG loading 9-13 January at a $36/t premium
Fuel oil 1%S 376.00 380.00 +4.75
to January gasoil, while CCMA offered the same-sized barge Fuel oil 3.5%S 360.75 364.75 +3.50
fob ARA loading 5-13 January at a $41/t premium to January Fuel oil straight-run M-100 375.50 378.50 +3.50
gasoil. Fuel oil straight-run M-100† +13.50 +16.50 nc
VGO 0.5%S 491.00 494.50 -0.25
In the Mediterranean region, Malta's state-run fuel dis- VGO 0.5%* $/bl +5.00 +5.50 nc
tributor Enemed issued a tender to buy 87,500-92,500t of jet VGO 2.0%S 473.75 477.25 -0.25
fuel through five 17,500-18,500t shipments between Febru- VGO 2.0%* $/bl +3.25 +3.75 nc
barge
ary and August. The Mediterranean is currently well-supplied Fuel oil 1%S 364.50 368.50 +3.50
with jet fuel, while demand remains subdued. Fuel oil 3.5%S RMG 360.00 364.00 +3.50
In shipping news, two vessels were provisionally booked Fuel oil VWA 362.00 +3.50
3.5%S RMK 357.00 +3.50
to take jet fuel to northwest Europe from Sikka. Vitol
3.5%S RMK diff to RMG -5.00 nc
chartered the SKS Douro to load 90,000t on 11 January, and VGO 0.5%S 489.25 492.75 -0.38
Total chartered the Pike to ship 60,000t on 3 January. Shell VGO 0.5%* $/bl +4.75 +5.25 nc
VGO 2.0%S 472.25 475.50 -0.25
provisionally chartered the Ugale to take 37,000t of jet fuel
VGO 2.0%* $/bl +3.00 +3.50 nc
to Gavle, Sweden from the ARA hub on 8 January. * differential to Brent crude futures ($/bl) †premium to barge VWA

Heating oil cargoes

Heating oil prices in northwest Europe fell by $3.25/t on the West Mediterranean fuel oil and VGO $/t
back of a decline in Ice January gasoil, while differentials to Low High ±
the futures contract remained unchanged. fob
In northwest Europe, Litasco was looking to buy an Fuel oil 1%S 374.75 378.75 +5.00
18,000t gasoil cargo cif Rouen for 12-16 January delivery at Fuel oil 3.5%S 356.50 360.50 +3.75
cif
a $1/t premium to spot quotes. In the Mediterranean, Vitol
Fuel oil 1%S 383.25 387.25 +4.75
placed a bid for a 25,000t 0.1pc gasoil cargo basis Alexan- Fuel oil 3.5%S 365.00 369.00 +3.50
dria for delivery 23-27 January at a $2.50/t discount to spot VGO 0.5%S 486.00 489.25 -0.38
quotes. VGO 0.5%S* $/bl +4.25 +4.75 nc
No offers emerged in either region. Northwest European VGO 2.0%S 468.75 472.25 -0.25
VGO 2.0%S* $/bl +2.50 +3.00 nc
discounts to Ice gasoil remained unchanged at $2.25/t while
* differential to Brent crude futures ($/bl)
Mediterranean premiums to Ice gasoil were stable at $1/t.

Ice crude futures - 16:30 London time $/bl

Diesel cargoes
Month Value ±
In northwest Europe, 10ppm French diesel cargo values
slipped to a discount to Ice January gasoil to reflect a deal Brent 1-minute marker Mar 66.29 -0.04

concluded during the afternoon session. Regional 10ppm

diesel supplies were ample.
Black Sea VGO $/t
Petroineos sold BP a 27,000t French diesel cargo cif
Low High ±
Rostock for delivery 12-16 January at a $1/t discount to Ice
January gasoil. French diesel differentials to Ice January fob
VGO 0.5%S 472.50 475.75 +0.13
gasoil fell by $2.25/t to reflect the value of the deal. Vitol
VGO 0.5%S* $/bl +2.25 +2.75 nc
also sold Mercuria a similar-sized cargo basis Le Havre for VGO 2.0%S 455.25 458.75 +0.25
delivery 15-19 January at a $2.25/t discount to spot quotes. VGO 2.0%S* $/bl +0.50 +1.00 nc
Diesel in northwest Europe is well-supplied and Ice Janu- * differential to Brent crude futures ($/bl)

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Argus European Products Issue 18-1 | Tuesday 2 January 2018

ary gasoil futures fell by $3.25/t from the previous trading Bunkers $/t
Low High ±
day. UK and German grade diesel premiums to Ice January
gasoil fell by 75¢/t in line with the move in January swaps Rotterdam dob
and in the absence of fresh bids and offers. Premiums to the 180cst 3.5%S 391.00 396.00 +4.00
futures contract were assessed at 75¢/t and $1/t, respec- 380cst 3.5%S 359.50 364.50 +1.00
tively. MGO 581.00 586.00 +3.00
An unspecified production unit at BP's 82,000 b/d Lingen
Antwerp dob
refinery in northwest Germany restarted on 28 December af-
180cst 3.5%S 395.00 400.00 +8.00
ter a shutdown. Production of middle distillates and gasoline
380cst 3.5%S 360.00 365.00 +1.00
at the refinery were limited in the last two weeks of Decem-
MGO 580.00 585.00 nc
ber, but the reductions did not lead to significant shortages
because of muted demand from end-users. Gasoline premium to naphtha cif NWE $/t
In the Mediterranean, diesel premiums to Ice January Naphtha cif NWE = 0
90
gasoil remained unchanged at $3.25/t as bids and offers re-
mained either side of the prevailing assessment. There were 80
five offers against a single bid. 70

60
Diesel and heating oil barges
50
Northwest European gasoil barge prices fell on Tuesday as
a $3.25/t decline in Ice January gasoil offset rises in the 40
50ppm sulphur heating oil and diesel barge markets. 30
In the diesel barge market, Glencore sold Vitol a 2,800t 20
and 3,000t barge at 50¢/t discounts to Ice January gasoil
10
loading 5-9 January fob ARA. The diesel barge discount to
2 Oct 17 31 Oct 17 29 Nov 17 2 Jan 18
Ice January gasoil narrowed by 50¢/t to reflect the deals.
In the 50ppm gasoil barge market, Vitol bought two
3,000t barges at $5.50/t discounts to Ice January gasoil fob Argus MTBE and High-Octane
ARA. Glencore sold one loading 5-9 January, while Belgo- Components (Russian)
mine sold the other loading 9-13 January. The assessed Weekly report —
discount to Ice January gasoil narrowed by $1/t to reflect MTBE, TAME and N-methylaniline in Russia and CIS —
prices and analysis
the deals.
There were no deals in the 0.1pc heating oil barge mar-
ket, but bids from Shell and Glencore and offers from Trafig- Market Reporting

ura remained either side of the current assessed discount of Consulting

$6.75/t to Ice January gasoil, which was unchanged. Events
illuminating the markets
An unspecified production unit at BP's 82,000 b/d Lingen
refinery in northwest Germany has restarted after a shut-
Eurobob oxy differential to diesel barges S/t
down. Production at the plant had returned to normal as of
28 December. The unit was taken offline after an exterior
German diesel 10ppm barges = 0
part heated up on 16-17 December. 90
80
High-sulphur fuel oil cargoes 70
Prices in the high-sulphur fuel oil cargo markets increased 60
on Tuesday as underlying Rotterdam barge values climbed, 50
while notional discounts to Ice Brent crude narrowed for a 40
second straight trading day.
30
Fuel oil prices are supported by exports to Asia-Pacific.
20
On 30 December, the VLCC Front Stratus finished loading
10
fuel oil in Rotterdam and left for Singapore, where it is
expected to arrive on 9 February. The departure came just 0
2 Oct 17 31 Oct 17 29 Nov 17 2 Jan 18
five days after the VLCC New Medal left the Dutch port for

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Argus European Products Issue 18-1 | Tuesday 2 January 2018

Singapore, also carrying 270,000t of fuel oil. Exporters are High-sulphur fuel oil barges VWA $/t
taking advantage of favourable economics for shipping fuel
370
oil to the east. Demand in Asia is expected to pick up in the
first quarter of 2018, while freight costs remain comparative- 360
ly cheap with rates for a VLCC last reported at around $3mn.
350
No new fixtures on the route from Rotterdam to Asia-
Pacific emerged on Tuesday. 340
Elsewhere, Azerbaijan’s Socar provisionally chartered 330
the Ridgebury Lindy B to ship 130,000t of what is likely to
be fuel oil from the Lithuanian port of Klaipeda to Fujairah, 320

loading on 9 January. The vessel was booked at $2.2mn. 310

Tupras continued to offer high-sulphur fuel oil on
300
Tuesday, adding supplies to the Mediterranean market. The
2 Oct 17 31 Oct 17 29 Nov 17 2 Jan 18
Turkish refiner issued a fresh tender to sell volumes with
a maximum sulphur content of 3.5pc for loading on a fob
Aliaga basis during 21-23 January. Tupras previously offered
three similar-sized cargoes of 3.5pc sulphur material for
LSFO cargo differential to 3.5pc barges NWE $/t
loading during 2-5 January 12-14 January and 16-18 January.
The refiner offered options on the quality of the product, 3.5% S = 0
11
including 180cst viscosity marine fuel grade, RMG 380cst 10
grade and RMK 380cst grade.
9
Tupras is likely offering larger volumes of high-sulphur
8
fuel oil because of the extension till end-January of a partial
7
shutdown at the Izmir refinery, which started in November.
6

Low-sulphur fuel oil cargoes 5

Low-sulphur fuel oil cargo prices rose in northwest Europe 4
on Tuesday. 3
The underlying Rotterdam high-sulphur barge prices 2
increased for a second straight trading day on Tuesday. And 2 Oct 17 31 Oct 17 29 Nov 17 2 Jan 18
the high-low sulphur spread — the low-sulphur fob northwest
Europe cargo premium to high-sulphur Rotterdam barges —
widened to $6.75/t from $5.50/t on the prior day, extending
gains in outright low-sulphur fuel oil prices. 0.5pc VGO differential to 2pc VGO NWE $/t

VGO 2% NWE fob = 0

Straight-run fuel oil cargoes 35
High- and low-sulphur straight-run fuel oil values moved in
opposing directions on Tuesday, tracking shifts in underlying 30
Ice March Brent crude and Rotterdam fuel oil barges.
High-sulphur straight-run fuel oil prices rose, tracking 25
a $3.50/t gain in underlying fob Rotterdam high-sulphur
cracked fuel oil barges. The M100 premium to Rotterdam 20
barges remained unchanged at $13.50-16.50/t.
Low-sulphur straight-run fuel oil's discount to underlying 15
March Brent was unchanged at 75¢/bl. Outright prices fell
slightly, weakened by a 4¢/bl drop in underlying March Brent 10
by 16:30 GMT. 2 Oct 17 31 Oct 17 29 Nov 17 2 Jan 18

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Argus European Products Issue 18-1 | Tuesday 2 January 2018

Vacuum gasoil Fuel oil barges

High- and low-sulphur VGO premiums to underlying Ice March Prices in the Rotterdam fuel oil market increased on Tues-
Brent crude were unchanged on the first trading day of the day.
new year in northwest Europe. High-sulphur standard finished bunker grade RMG fuel oil
Fob high- and low-sulphur northwest European VGO was traded at $362/t in the Rotterdam barge market during
premiums to March Brent stood at $3.25/bl and $5/bl, re- Tuesday’s afternoon window. Liquidity remained compara-
spectively. Fob/cif spreads remained unchanged at 25¢/bl on tively low with 16,000t traded during the afternoon session,
both grades. Mediterranean delivered high- and low-sulphur up by 4,000t from the previous day of trading. Mercuria sold
VGO premiums to March Brent also remained unchanged at most of the product, while Vitol was a prominent buyer.
$2.75/bl and $4.50/bl, respectively. Margins continued to firm. The notional discount to the
European netback calculations were unchanged on Tues- front-month Brent crude futures contract narrowed for the
day. The high-sulphur calculation stood at +$4.50/bl against second day in a row. On Tuesday, high-sulphur RMG barge
March Brent by 16:30 GMT. The low-sulphur calculation prices stood at a discount of $10.17/bl to Ice March Brent
meanwhile stood at +$6.25/bl. crude, compared with a $10.75/bl discount on 29 December.
Bids and offers in northwest Europe’s spot market remain Fuel oil supplies in Europe are being tightened by work-
significantly below netback calculations, according to market able arbitrage economics to Asia-Pacific. Two VLCCs finished
participants. High-sulphur VGO was indicated at around a loading fuel oil in Rotterdam and left for Singapore during
$2-3/bl premium to March Brent, while low-sulphur product 25-30 December. Spot prices stood at a $2.25/t premium to
was pegged at around a $4.00-4.50/bl premium. Bids and the February high-sulphur barge swap, reflecting tightening
offers are emerging, but no trades were confirmed and supplies in northwest Europe. Demand in the local bunkering
demand from refiners remains weak. Buying interest in the market remains low.
Mediterranean market also remains weak.
No new cargoes were seen booked to the US on Thurs-
day.

French diesel cargo $/t Jet premium to heating oil cif NWE $/t
620 Heating oil cif NWE = 0
65

600 60

55
580
50
560 45

540 40

35
520
30

500 25
2 Oct 17 31 Oct 17 29 Nov 17 2 Jan 18 2 Oct 17 31 Oct 17 29 Nov 17 2 Jan 18

Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Page 6 of 14

Argus European Products Issue 18-1  |  Tuesday 2 January 2018

News

Nigerian product imports rose in October Mostorod's new units ready by year-end
Nigerian oil product imports and refinery output rose sub- A new complex at Egypt’s 142,000 b/d Mostorod refinery
stantially in October from September, according to state-run near Cairo is set to be on stream this year, oil minister Tarek
NNPC. el-Molla said.
NNPC gasoline imports via the direct sale-direct purchase Cairo Petroleum is investing $3.7bn in new units, includ-
(DSDP) crude-for-product swap mechanism rose to a seven- ing a hydrocracker, which converts fuel oil into lighter prod-
month high of 300,000 b/d, from 186,000 b/d in September. ucts such as diesel and jet fuel. The complex was originally
Gasoline output from Nigeria's refineries rose to a four- scheduled to come on stream last year.
month high of 29,000 b/d, buoyed by a higher run rate at El-Molla added that the second phase of the 100,000 b/d
the 210,000 b/d Port Harcourt and the restart of crude Midor refinery’s expansion in Alexandria will be completed
runs at the 125,000 b/d Warri. Refinery utilisation rose to a this year to increase the production capacity of petroleum
five-month high of 17.6pc of nameplate capacity, although products. The first phase of expansion, which was complet-
the 110,000 b/d Kaduna refinery remained shut for a fifth ed last year, increased production capacity of high-octane
straight month. gasoline, diesel, butane, jet fuel, coal and sulphur by 15
NNPC subsidiary PPMC's gasoline sales slowed to 228,000 percent.
b/d in October, from 244,000 b/d in the previous month. A $1.4bn project to complete the upgrade and expansion
NNPC allocated around 190,000 b/d of crude for the of Midor’s capacity to 160,000 b/d has been delayed by at
DSDP programme in September, down from 274,000 b/d in least another 18 months to the end of 2020.
August. October data were not yet available.
Nigerian crude and condensate production was 1.93mn Unit restarted at BP Lingen refinery
b/d in September, according to NNPC, around 6pc lower An unspecified production unit at BP's 82,000 b/d Lingen re-
than August's 1.99mn b/d. The number of theft and vandal- finery in northwest Germany has restarted after a shutdown.
ism incidents on Nigeria's pipeline system rose to a 12-month Production at the plant had returned to normal as of 28
high of 126 in October, up by 80pc from September and up December, a BP spokesman said. The unit was taken offline
by 25pc from a year earlier. after an exterior part heated up on 16-17 December.
Nigeria has been experiencing oil product shortages Spot volumes of middle distillates and gasoline at the re-
since at least early December, particularly for gasoline. finery were limited in the last two weeks of December, but
NNPC said on 27 December it expects to supply around the reductions did not lead to significant shortages because
40mn l/d to the domestic market in January, compared with of muted demand from end consumers.
around 30mn l/d normally.
Nigeria primarily sources gasoline from Europe, from Shell to keep hold of Danish refinery
where export interest to west Africa has been robust in Shell has terminated a deal to sell its Danish refining busi-
December. Provisional and confirmed spot tanker bookings ness to local firm Dansk Olieselskab. It has not said why the
of December-loading European gasoline with west African sale is being cancelled.
discharge options rose to 1.55mn t — the highest since June. Shell agreed to sell the business — comprising the 70,000
Most west Africa-bound European gasoline is destined for b/d Fredericia refinery, and local trading and supply activi-
Nigeria. ties — for $80mn in September 2016.

Announcement

Argus successfully completes annual Iosco assurance review

Argus has completed the sixth external assurance review of its price benchmarks covering crude, products, biofuels,
thermal coal, coking coal, natural gas, biomass and petrochemicals benchmarks. The review was carried out by professional
services firm PwC. Annual independent, external reviews of oil benchmarks are required by international regulatory group
Iosco’s Principles for Oil Price Reporting Agencies, and Iosco encourages extension of the reviews to non-oil benchmarks.
For more information and to download the review visit our website http://www.argusmedia.com/About-Argus/How-We-
Work/

Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Page 7 of 14

Argus European Products Issue 18-1  |  Tuesday 2 January 2018

News

The proposed divestment was part of a wider retreat stoppages at US Gulf coast refiners resulted in rising gasoline
from Europe's downstream sector. Shell sold downstream cracks and higher profitability for diesel production.
assets in Italy, Norway and the Czech Republic in 2014-15. It Mol said in August that refinery margins would probably
completed a $300mn deal to sell its Danish marketing opera- average "at the top" of its $5-6/bl forecast range for 2018. It
tions to Canadian convenience store company Alimentation has reiterated its group refining margin forecast at $4-5/bl
Couche-Tard in May 2016. for 2018-21.
The deal's termination will have no effect on Shell's tar- Mol's integrated petrochemical margin rose slightly in De-
get to sell $30bn of assets globally in 2016-18. The company cember, to €400.8/t ($480.9/t) from €399.7/t in November.
has completed around $23bn of deals since the start of 2016, The firm said its petrochemical margin indicates "market
with a further $7bn agreed or "in advanced progress". price fluctuations predominantly between high- and low-
density polyethylene and polypropylene over naphtha based
Malta's Enemed seeks jet fuel upon the product yields" of its Hungarian and Slovakian
Malta's state-owned fuel distributor Enemed has issued a petrochemical operations.
tender to buy 87,500-92,500t of jet fuel through five 17,500- Mol runs four refineries in Hungary, Slovakia and Croatia,
18,500t shipments between February and August. with a combined capacity of 423,000 b/d.
The cargoes are to be delivered to Malta on or around Middle distillates account for 45.6pc of yields implied for
the tentative dates of February, April, May, July and August. Mol's group refining margin, gasoline for 19.4pc, black prod-
The jet A-1 purchased under the contract will be delivered ucts accounts 10.9pc, own consumption and losses for 9.9pc,
on a cif basis at Has Saptan in Marsaxlokk Harbour. Offers naphtha for 8.7pc and gases and chemical products for
must be submitted by 16 January at 10:00 CET. 5.5pc. Margin calculations are based on weighted Solomon
refinery yields and contain costs of purchased energy.
Mol margins at 16-month low in December
Hungarian integrated oil firm Mol's refining margins fell in Saudi Arabia raises gasoline, diesel prices
December for a third consecutive month, to the lowest since Saudi Arabia has increased domestic gasoline and diesel
August 2016. prices for the first time in two years, in an attempt to curb
Mol's group refinery margin declined to $4.40/bl in De- demand growth and ensure sustainable consumption.
cember, from $5.80/bl in November. The quarterly average The government has raised the price of 91 Ron gasoline
group margin fell to $5.70/bl in October-December from by 83pc to 1.37 riyal/litre (36¢/l) and 95 Ron gasoline by
$7.30/bl in the previous quarter. 126pc to SR2.04/l, effective 1 January.
Mol's separate margin that only includes its Hungarian Prices of diesel for use in industry and by utilities have
and Slovakian operations decreased to $5.10/bl in December, been increased slightly to SR0.378/l from SR0.33/l, but
also a level last seen in August 2016, from $6.40/bl in No- remained unchanged for transport use at SR0.47/l. Kerosine
vember. This margin averaged $6.40/bl in the fourth quarter, prices are also unchanged at SR0.64/l.
down from $8.0/bl in July-September. The higher gasoline and diesel prices include a value
Refining margins fell in December because of lower mo- added tax of 5pc, which also took effect on 1 January and
tor fuel cracks, "especially in the case of gasoline", and a covers a wide range of goods and services.
narrow Urals-Brent price differential, Mol said. The purpose of the increase in gasoline and diesel prices
A third factor driving margins down was the increase of is to “reduce the accelerating growth in domestic consump-
Mol's consumption costs as crude prices rose, the company tion of energy products in the kingdom, and to ensure the
said.
The average price of Mol's benchmark crude increased Subscriber notice
to $64.20/bl in December from $62.60/bl in November, Mol Argus will delay any formal consultation and subsequent
said. The quarterly average price rose to $61.40/bl in the decision on switching the volume-weighted average of
fourth quarter, from $52.10/bl in July-September. The last oxy grade barge trades to a non-oxy quality until the
time the quarterly average price stood above $60.0/bl was extent of the roll-out of E-10 gasoline across Europe
in April-June 2015. becomes clearer. Argus will formally consult with stake-
Mol's annual average group margin rose to $6.50/bl holders and give at least 12 months’ notice before any
in 2017, the highest in the past five years, thanks to the such change is made.
record-high margins in September when hurricane-enforced

Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Page 8 of 14

Argus European Products Issue 18-1  |  Tuesday 2 January 2018

optimum use of national natural resources and their sustain- at the RFCC in mid-August. The shutdowns led Dalian to miss
ability,” state-owned news agency SPA said. its 2017 crude throughput target of 300,000 b/d averaged
Yesterday’s price increase is the second in two years. over the whole year.
The first price hike, part of a drive to gradually eliminate The refinery is likely to keep run rates at around 80pc for
generous government subsidies, was announced at the start the next couple of months, boosting oil product supply com-
of 2016 and affected a wider range of refined products as pared to the previous four months. And PetroChina is likely
well as electricity tariffs. to export more diesel and gasoline in the first quarter as a
But the government announced in its budget statement result. The firm has won a 517,000 b/d product export quota
last month that it would slow the pace of eliminating sub- for January-March, up by 47pc from a year earlier, compris-
sidies, as well as postpone its goal of achieving a balanced ing 334,000 b/d of gasoline, 153,000 b/d of diesel and 30,000
budget by three years to 2023. The aim of the delay is to b/d of jet fuel.
ensure the domestic economy does not suffer.
Riyadh also last month announced increases to electric- Analysis: Indian LPG demand to slow
ity tariffs ahead of revealing its planned budget for 2018, Indian LPG demand growth could slow this year, after rising
which has increased the government’s capital expenditure to prices undercut a state-sponsored distribution programme
record levels in a bid to lift the economy out of recession. aimed at poorer users.
Saudi Arabia cut down on spending in 2016 and 2017 in LPG demand has increased on a year-on-year basis for
an attempt to reduce its budget deficit following the fall in 51 consecutive months to November. Consumption has been
crude prices from their mid-2014 highs of over $100/bl. But boosted by lower prices and the government's drive to ex-
austerity affected the country’s economic growth, causing it pand use of the fuel in villages and small towns through its
to fall into recession. Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY) scheme, which aims
to add 50mn LPG connections to poor households over three
PetroChina restarts Dalian refinery units years starting from the April 2016 to March 2017 fiscal year.
Chinese state-controlled energy firm PetroChina's flagship But demand growth has failed to keep pace with distribu-
410,000 b/d Dalian refinery has raised run rates after re- tion. The government released 33.1mn new LPG connections
starting units that were shut since a fire in August. in 2016-17, with at least another 21.5mn new connections
The refinery restarted three units — a 25,000 b/d (1.4mn added from 1 April to 18 December, including those under
t/yr) residue fluid catalytic cracker (RFCC), 120,000 b/d the PMUY scheme.
crude unit and 14,500 b/d (600,000 t/yr) catalytic reformer The more than 54mn connections added since the PMUY
— on 28 December, and reached on-specification production scheme was implemented in May 2016 include over 32mn
a day later. connections to poor households as of 4 December since May
The restarts will enable the Dalian refinery to increase 2016. But these households typically earn less than $2/d,
run rates to 80pc this month from 66pc previously. making it hard for them to afford refills. They have to repay
PetroChina plans to run 330,000 b/d of crude at Dalian in at least 1,500 rupees ($23.5) towards the cost of installing
January, up from the 270,000 b/d that it has processed since cylinders under the scheme, a big expense for poorer users.
September, after shutting down the units as a result of a fire LPG refills were previously supplied at subsidised rates,

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Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Page 9 of 14

Argus European Products Issue 18-1  |  Tuesday 2 January 2018

but the government now requires consumers to pay the Announcements

market price upfront and then wait for state-run refiners to
repay the subsidy into their bank accounts. Market prices Effective 27 March 2017, the delivery window for
for a 14.2kg LPG cylinder are currently around Rs250 above naphtha barges cif ARA is 3-30 days ahead. Argus also
subsidised prices, a hefty sum for poor households. amended the oxygenate content for naphtha barges cif
The PMUY scheme aims to deliver health benefits by ARA to a maximum of 100ppm.
replacing the burning of wood, biomass and charcoal with
smoke-free LPG. But rising LPG prices and the higher cost of For trades to be included in Argus gasoline barge
assessments, standard nomination procedures must
refills have hit enthusiasm for the scheme. Subsidised LPG
be followed. The buyer should give two working days'
prices have increased by 18.3pc since the PMUY scheme was
notice of barge ETA. Nominations received after 14:00
implemented in May 2016, with non-subsidised prices rising
London time or on Fridays after 13:00 London time will
by 42pc over the period. An average consumer in India uses be deemed to be received on the following working day.
7-7½ cylinders a year, while customers under the PMUY pro- Otherwise, the original day of nomination will count as
gramme use an average of four cylinders a year, according to day one of the two days notice.
state-controlled refiner IOC.
But many poor households use as few as two cylinders a Quality testing: On gasoline barges, standard industry
year. The government’s focus on expanding consumption in practice assumes seller’s discretion to appoint an
this sector has seen total demand growth lag the increase inspections company from a list of widely recognised
in national LPG coverage, which reached 78.3pc as of 1 No- entities. But if a buyer has reasonable cause* to request
vember from 60.6pc in 2015. Demand in April-November, the an alternative but widely recognised inspector, the
nominated inspection company should be changed by
first eight months of India’s 2017-18 fiscal year, rose by 8.8pc
mutual agreement. If changing the nominated inspection
from a year earlier to 15.2mn t, down from 10.1pc growth in
company is not acceptable to the seller, the seller
2016-17 and 9pc in 2015-16. The oil ministry expects demand
should agree to allow a re-test of the product by an
to increase by 9.7pc to 23.7mn t in 2017-18. alternative inspections company before loading.
The government reacted by freezing prices of subsidised *Reasonable cause may include recent history of
LPG in December in an attempt to boost demand. State-run deviations between test results at loadport and/or on
refiners kept prices of subsidised LPG unchanged last month, delivery, where the deviation is in excess of industry
reversing a policy of gradual increases, and increased prices accepted margins of reproducibility and repeatability.
of non-subsidised fuel by just 0.7pc to Rs747 for a standard
14.2kg cylinder in Delhi. This compares with a price increase On Argus Eurobob oxy gasoline barges, only winter
of Rs93, or 14pc, for non-subsidised cylinders in November. grades will be reflected until Friday 23 March 2018, and
January prices have not yet been announced. only summer grades will be reflected from Thursday 29
Weak offtake from new consumers under the state- March 2018.
sponsored subsidy scheme and a poor performance by the During 26-28 March, both grades will be reflected de-
ruling BJP party in state elections in Gujarat in December pending on sufficient volume of bids, offers and trades
prompted the review. Federal elections are due in 2019. to constitute a representative market. A minimum of
3,000t of each specification must be traded for both of
them to be considered in the 26-28 March transition pe-
riod. If less than 3,000t of either grade is traded, these
trades will not be included in the day’s volume-weighted
average.

On 22 December and 29 December 2017, Argus will close

its gasoline market assessment at 13:00 London time,
while other product market assessments will close at
12:30 London time. Argus Open Markets will be open
during 11:30-12:30, with an assessment period for naph-
tha barges and cargoes during 12:00-12:30.

Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Page 10 of 14

Argus European Products Issue 18-1  |  Tuesday 2 January 2018

deals done

Gasoline (barges)
Seller Buyer Loading from Loading to Price $ Volume t Notes

Gasoline Eurobob oxy

Hartree FinCo 04 Jan 10 Jan 614.50 2,000
included in VWA

Gasoline Eurobob oxy

Litasco CCMA 04 Jan 10 Jan 611.50 2,000
included in VWA

Gasoline Eurobob oxy

Total Shell 04 Jan 10 Jan 610.00 2,000
included in VWA

Gunvor Shell 09 Jan 13 Jan 609.00 1,000 Gasoline Eurobob oxy

Gasoline 95R ARA

Gunvor Total 09 Jan 13 Jan 613.00 1,000
[10ppm]

Gasoline 95R ARA

Gunvor Total 09 Jan 13 Jan 613.00 1,000
[10ppm]

Middle distillates
Delivery
Grade Seller Buyer Location Price $ Volume t Notes
mode

Ice gasoil (Jan) optional volume:

Gasoil French diesel NWE Petroineos BP cif Rostock 27,000
-1.00 0-6kt

optional volume:
Gasoil French diesel NWE Vitol Mercuria cif Le Havre Platts () -2.25 27,000
0-6kt

Ice gasoil (Jan)

Gasoil German diesel ARA Glencore Vitol fob ARA 3,000 included in VWA
-0.50

Ice gasoil (Jan)

Gasoil German heating oil ARA Belgomine Vitol fob ARA 3,000 included in VWA
-5.50

Ice gasoil (Jan)

Gasoil German heating oil ARA Glencore Vitol fob ARA 3,000 included in VWA
-5.50

Ice gasoil (Jan)

Gasoil German diesel ARA Glencore Vitol fob ARA 2,880 included in VWA
-0.50

Argus Assessment Rationale Database

For prices used in financial benchmarks, Argus publishes daily explanations of the assessment rationale with supporting
data. This information is available to permissioned subscribers and other stakeholders.

Subscribers to this report via Argus Direct or My Argus may access the database here.

Other subscribers may request access here or contact us by email at sales@argusmedia.com.

Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Page 11 of 14

Argus European Products Issue 18-1  |  Tuesday 2 January 2018

AVERAGES January TO DATE

Gasoline $/t Fuel oil $/t

NW Europe W Mediterranean NW Europe W Mediterranean

Low High Low High Low High Low High

fob fob

95R gasoline 10ppm 616.75 617.25 620.25 620.75 Fuel oil 1%S 366.75 370.75 374.75 378.75

91R gasoline 600.00 600.50 - - Fuel oil 3.5%S 346.00 350.00 356.50 360.50

Naphtha 65 Para - - 573.25 574.25 Fuel oil straight-run 0.5%S 447.25 450.75 - -
cif VGO 0.5%S 489.25 492.75 - -
95R gasoline 10ppm 627.75 628.25 631.00 631.50 VGO 2.0%S 472.25 475.50 - -
91R gasoline 611.75 612.25 - - cif
Naphtha 65 Para 592.00 593.00 584.00 585.00 Fuel oil 1%S 376.00 380.00 383.25 387.25
barge Fuel oil 3.5%S 360.75 364.75 365.00 369.00
98R gasoline 688.50 689.00 - - VGO 0.5%S 491.00 494.50 - -
95R gasoline 10ppm 615.50 616.00 - - VGO 2.0%S 473.75 477.25 - -
Eurobob oxy 611.75 612.25 - - barge
Eurobob non-oxy 617.00 617.50 - - Fuel oil 1%S 364.50 368.50 - -
91R gasoline 611.75 612.25 - - Fuel oil 3.5%S RMG 360.00 364.00 - -
MTBE 685.25 685.75 - - Fuel oil VWA - 362.00 - -
ETBE 880.25 880.75 - - Fuel oil 3.5%S RMK - 357.00 - -
Naphtha 65 Para 590.00 591.00 - - VGO 0.5%S 489.25 492.75 - -

VGO 2.0%S 472.25 475.50 - -

Middle distillates $/t

NW Europe W Mediterranean
Bunkers $/t
Low High Low High
Rotterdam dob Antwerp dob
fob Low High Low High
Jet 628.25 629.25 619.00 620.00
180cst 3.5%S 391.00 396.00 395.00 400.00
Diesel French 10ppm 586.75 587.75 589.00 590.00
380cst 3.5%S 359.50 364.50 360.00 365.00
Diesel German 10ppm 588.75 589.75 - -
MGO 581.00 586.00 580.00 585.00
Heating oil 0.1%S 585.50 586.50 586.75 587.75

Heating oil German 50ppm 586.25 587.25 - -

cif
Argus European Products Methodology
Jet 637.00 638.00 636.00 637.00

Diesel UK ULS 597.25 598.25 - - Argus uses a precise and

transparent methodology to
Diesel French 10ppm 595.50 596.50 599.75 600.75 assess prices in all the markets
it covers. The latest version of
Diesel German 10ppm 597.50 598.50 - - the Argus European Products
arGUs eUropean prodUcts

Heating oil 0.1%S 594.25 595.25 597.50 598.50 Methodology can be found at: Contents:
Methodology overview 2

www.argusmedia.com/methodology.
Naphtha and gasoline 6
Northwest Europe 6
Cargoes 6
Barges 6

Heating oil German 50ppm 595.00 596.00 - - West Mediterranean

Middle distillates
Northwest Europe
7
8
8
Cargoes 8
Barges 9

barge
West Mediterranean 10
Fuel oil and VGO 11

For a hard copy, please email Northwest Europe

Cargoes
Barges
11
11
12

info@argusmedia.com, but
West Mediterranean 13

Jet 633.75 634.25 - -

Bunkers Rotterdam 14
Bunkers Antwerp 14
Forward prices 14

please note that methodologies

Diesel German 10ppm 596.25 596.75 - - are updated frequently and for
the latest version, you should
Last Updated: apriL 2014

Heating oil 0.1%S 590.00 590.50 - -

The most up-to-date Argus European Products methodology is available on www.argusmedia.com

visit the internet site. www.argusmedia.com

Heating oil German 50ppm 591.00 592.00 - -

Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Page 12 of 14

Argus European Products Issue 18-1  |  Tuesday 2 January 2018

Swaps

Gasoline $/t High-sulphur fuel oil cargo $/t

Low High ± Low High ±

Jan 611.50 613.50 +1.00 Jan 355.50 356.50 -0.25

Feb 613.00 615.00 nc Feb 355.25 356.25 nc
Mar 617.50 619.50 nc Mar 355.25 356.25 +0.25
2Q18 648.50 650.50 +1.00 2Q18 354.50 355.50 +0.50
3Q18 631.00 633.00 +1.00 3Q18 350.00 351.00 +0.50

Naphtha $/t High-sulphur fuel oil barge $/t

Low High ± Low High ±

Jan 589.00 591.00 +1.00 Jan 359.50 360.50 -0.25

Feb 581.00 583.00 +1.50 Feb 359.25 360.25 nc
Mar 573.00 575.00 +1.50 Mar 359.25 360.25 +0.25
2Q18 561.50 563.50 +1.50 2Q18 358.50 359.50 +0.50
3Q18 550.00 552.00 +1.50 3Q18 354.00 355.00 +0.50

Jet cif NWE premium to Ice gasoil $/t Low-sulphur fuel oil $/t
Low High ± Low High ±

Jan +39.75 +40.75 +0.75 Jan 366.25 367.25 +1.00

Feb +39.25 +40.25 +0.25 Feb 366.75 367.75 +2.00
Mar +39.50 +40.50 +0.50 Mar 366.75 367.75 +1.25
2Q18 +39.50 +40.50 nc 2Q18 368.00 369.00 +1.50
3Q18 +39.50 +40.50 nc 3Q18 366.50 367.50 +1.50

Gasoil premium to Ice gasoil $/t Ice settlements $/t

Low High ± Contract Gasoil ±

Jan -8.00 -7.50 +0.50 Jan 597.00 -3.25

Feb -9.00 -8.50 +1.25 Feb 598.50 -3.25
Mar -11.00 -10.50 +0.25 Mar 596.75 -2.50
2Q18 -13.00 -12.50 +0.25
3Q18 -14.00 -13.50 +0.25

Diesel premium to Ice gasoil $/t

Low High ± Argus Media Blog
Jan +1.25 +1.75 -0.75
http://blog.argusmedia.com
Feb +3.00 +3.50 nc
Mar +3.75 +4.25 nc Subscribe to our blog for expert updates
2Q18 +3.75 +4.25 nc and analysis on the latest developments
in the global oil industry
3Q18 +3.75 +4.25 nc
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The holiday calendar showing which Argus reports are
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Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Page 13 of 14

Argus European Products Issue 18-1  |  Tuesday 2 January 2018

freight

Spot freight rates

*Freight rates are taken from

Argus Freight
Baltic - UKC Size t $/t
Dirty 30,000 14.79
Baltic - Med Size t $/t
Dirty 30,000 22.09
Cross - UKC Size t $/t
Gasoil 22,000 11.75

Black Sea - Med Size t $/t

Gasoil 30,000 17.46

Med - UKC Size t $/t

Cross - Med Size t $/t
Naphtha 30,000 18.80
Gasoil 30,000 11.75
Jet 30,000 17.89
Gasoline 30,000 10.84
Naphtha 30,000 10.84
Dirty 30,000 8.56

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