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ICICI Bank Ltd.

RESULT UPDATE 25th April 2023

India Equity Institutional Research II Result Update – Q4 FY23 II 25th April 2023 Page 2

ICICI Bank Ltd. Strong margins led by healthy business momentum; Returns ratio and asset quality remains superior
CMP Target Potential Upside Market Cap (INR Mn) Recommendation Sector
INR 905 INR 1,175 29.8% INR 63,22,126 BUY Banking

Result Highlights of Q4 FY23:

 Net interest income (NII) grew by 40.2% YoY (+7.3% QoQ) to INR 1,76,668 Mn in Q4FY23 from INR 1,26,046 Mn in Q4FY22. The net
interest margin was 4.9% in Q4FY23 compared to 4.0% in Q4FY22 (vs 4.7% in Q3FY23).
 Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPOP) for Q4FY23 grew by 34.3% YoY/ 4.2% QoQ to INR 1,38,264 Mn.
 The profit after tax surged by 30.0% YoY (+9.7% QoQ) to INR 91,219 Mn in Q4FY23 compared to INR 70,187 Mn in Q4FY22.
 The overall advances as of March 31, 2023, stood at INR 1,01,96,383 Mn, a growth of 18.7% YoY (+4.1% QoQ). Total deposits increased by
10.9% YoY (+5.2% QoQ) to INR 1,18,08,407 Mn as of March 31, 2023.
 Gross NPA improved by 26 bps QoQ to 2.81% as of March 31, 2023, vs 3.07% as of December 31, 2022. The net NPA ratio improved from
0.55% as of December 31, 2022, to 0.48% as of March 31, 2023.
 The total capital adequacy ratio was 18.34%, and the Tier-1 capital adequacy ratio was 17.60% on a standalone basis as of March 31, 2023.

MARKET DATA KEY FINANCIALS

Particulars (INR Mn) FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24E FY 25E
Shares outs (Mn) 6,983 NII 3,89,894 4,74,661 6,21,286 7,01,321 8,28,818
Equity Cap (INR Mn) 19,99,545 PPOP 3,63,971 3,92,503 4,90,868 5,65,284 6,71,372
PAT 1,61,927 2,33,395 3,18,968 3,74,011 4,48,429
Mkt Cap (INR Mn) 63,22,126 EPS 23.4 33.6 45.8 53.6 64.2
52 Wk H/L (INR) 958/670 NIM 3.9% 4.0% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3%
Advances Growth 13.7% 17.1% 18.7% 18.0% 18.0%
Volume Avg (3m K) 20,970 Source: Company, KRChoksey Research

Face Value (INR) 2 Credit growth remained broad-based across all its segments; Deposit growth continues to lag:
As of March 31, 2023, the loan book stood at INR 1,01,96,383 Mn, a growth of 18.7% YoY/ 4.7% QoQ,
Bloomberg Code ICICIBC IN primarily led by strong growth in the domestic loan portfolio. The domestic loan book grew by
20.5% YoY/ 5.0% QoQ as of March 31, 2023, while the overseas book declined by 17.4% YoY
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE contributing 3.3% to the overall loan book. On the domestic side, the retail loan growth was 22.7%
YoY/ 5.4% sequentially. The mortgage portfolio grew by 17.6% YoY/ 4.0% QoQ within retail loans.
335 Auto loans grew by 23.0% YoY/ 5.1% QoQ. The personal loan & credit card segment continues to
see strong momentum, with a growth of 43.2% YoY/ 9.0% QoQ. The business banking portfolio
285 grew 34.9% YoY/ 7.8% QoQ, while the SME portfolio grew 19.2% YoY/ 6.2% QoQ due to leveraging
the branch network. The corporate loan book grew 21.2% YoY/ 5.5% QoQ, mainly led by a shift from
bond markets to banks. The bank sees a healthy opportunity in NBFCs, the public sector and real
235
estate in the coming quarters. The bank remains positive on the loan outlook for FY24E. On the
deposits side, the bank reported an increase of 10.9% YoY/ 5.2% QoQ, with an average CASA ratio
185 of 43.6%. The term deposits reported healthy growth of 17.1% YoY/ 4.3% QoQ as of March 31, 2023.
The bank continues to focus on retail and granular deposit growth. We expect the bank will see
135 healthy traction in retail deposits, resulting in an overall deposit growth of 15.0% CAGR over FY 23–
25E. This is expected to support loan growth of 18.0% CAGR over FY23–25E.
85
Asset quality continues to improve; Created adequate additional contingent buffer: GNPAs and
NNPAs improved by 26 bps/ 7 bps sequentially to 2.81% and 0.48%, respectively, as of March 31,
35 2023. Recoveries and upgrades from gross NPAs, excluding write-offs and sales, were INR 42,830
Apr-20

Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-20

Jul-21

Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22

Apr-23
Oct-21
Oct-20

Jan-23
Oct-22

Mn in Q4FY23, compared to INR 46,040 Mn in Q3FY23. The bank had a write-off of INR 11,580 Mn
in Q4FY23. The bank has built in additional contingent provisions of INR 16 Bn during the quarter
with almost zero/ negligible core credit costs.
ICICI Sensex
NIMs at All-time high giving boost to earnings growth: The NIMs for Q4FY23 expanded by 90 bps
MARKET INFO YoY/ 25 bps QoQ to 4.9%, which is at an all-time high, led by strong business momentum and the
lag of the transmission on deposits rate hike. The bank expects NIMs to see some pressure going
SENSEX 60,056 forward, given the lag rise in the cost of deposits. The fee income grew by 10.6% YoY in Q4FY23,
driving an 11.3% YoY growth in non-interest income, excluding treasury losses. The cost-to-income
NIFTY 17,743
ratio continued to be elevated at 39.2%, led by higher investment in employees and branches.
SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%)

Particulars Mar-23 Dec-22 Sep-22

Promoters
FIIs
0
44.2
0
45.1
0
42.7 15.5% 18.6%
DIIs 45.6 44.7 47.1
Others 10.2 10.2 10.2 NII CAGR between FY23 and PAT CAGR between FY23 and
Total 100 100 100 FY25E FY25E

ANALYST KRChoksey Research Phone: +91-22-6696 5555, Fax: +91-22-6691 9576

Abhishek Agarwal research5@krchoksey.com, +91-22-6696 5575 is also available on Bloomberg KRCS<GO> www.krchoksey.com
Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ
India Equity Institutional Research II Result Update – Q4 FY23 II 25th April 2023 Page 3

ICICI Bank Ltd.

Key Concall Highlights:
• The Indian economy has continued to show resilience amidst a volatile global environment. The underlying growth momentum is visible
in increasing steel and cement output, GST collections, capacity utilisation, and rising demand for electricity and travel. The government
led CapEx cycle is continuing, financial stability has been maintained, and inflation, which was too elevated, has moderated from its
peak.
• ICICIBC’s strategic focus is growing a risk calibrated core operating profit through a 360-degree customer-centric approach and by
serving opportunities across customer segments and ecosystems. The bank continues to operate within its strategic framework,
strengthen its franchise, enhance its delivery and servicing capabilities, and expand its technology and digital offerings.
• The bank continues to enhance its digital offerings and platforms to onboard new customers in a seamless manner, provide them with
end-to-end digital journeys and personalised solutions, and enable more effective data-driven cross-sell and up-sell.
• The sequential increase in NIM reflects the impact of an increase in interest rates on loan yields, and while repricing of deposits occurs
with a lag, the bank expects to see the cost of deposits increase in future quarters.
• Dividend income from subsidiaries and associates was INR 2.73 mn in this quarter, compared to INR 2.32 bn in Q4FY22. The dividend
income this quarter included an interim dividend from ICICI Prudential Asset Management and a dividend from ICICI Bank Canada.
• The bank had about 129,000 employees as of March 31, 2023. The employee count has increased by about 23,200 in FY23. Employee
expenses increased by 40.0% in Q4FY23.
• In Q4FY23, the bank took a more conservative approach on certain assumptions underlying the provisions for retirement benefit
obligations, which resulted in an additional expense of INR 3.35 Bn.
• Non-employee expenses increased by 19.6% YoY in this quarter, primarily due to retail business-related expenses and technology
expenses. The branch count has increased by about 480 in the last 12 months, and the bank had 5,900 branches as of March 31, 2023.
• In Q4FY23, the bank made contingency provisions of INR 56.5 Bn and the impact of the change in provisioning norms for corporate SME
and business banking NPAs to make them more conservative was about INR 11.96 Bn.
• There have been more than 9 Mn activations of iMobile Pay by non-ICICI Bank account holders as of March 23. The value of transactions
by non-ICICI Bank account holders in Q4FY23 was 1.3x the value of transactions in Q4FY22.
• The bank launched an array of digital solutions for capital market participants and clients of its custody services. The solutions enabled
various participants, including brokers, portfolio management service providers, foreign portfolio investors, foreign direct investors, and
alternative investment funds, to seamlessly meet all their banking requirements.
• The total outstanding to NBFCs and HFCs was INR 834.9 Bn as of March 31, 2023, compared to INR 765.4 Bn as of December 31, 2022. The
sequential increase in the outstanding to NBFCs and HFCs was mainly due to disbursements to entities having long vintage and entities
owned by well established corporate groups.
• The builder portfolio was INR 398.9 Bn as of March 31, 2023, compared to INR 360.1 Bn as of December 31, 2022. The builder portfolio is
about 4% of the bank’s total loan portfolio, the portfolio largely comprises well-established builders and this is also reflected in the
sequential increase in the portfolio.
Valuation and view: ICICBC reported another stellar performance in Q4FY23. The credit book continued to witness a resilient growth
momentum in its domestic loan portfolio led by healthy demand scenario across all the segments. The overall earnings were strongly led by
robust growth in operating income and tight control over the credit cost, following a conservative approach in terms of provisions. The
asset quality continued to improve for the quarter-ended period, led by a decline in the restructuring of stress accounts and moderation of
the slippages. The bank holds an adequate amount of contingent provision at the end of the year FY23, which will help to have tighter
control over the credit costs going ahead. ICICIBC reported an industry leading PCR at ~82.8%. ICICIBC will continue to focus on a granular
and retail segment for deposit mobilisation, which will aid in long-term sustainable growth in the loan book. NIMs for the quarter reported a
significant expansion due to high yields on assets and a lower cost of funds. However, as the deposit repricing is ongoing, the bank expects
the impact to be seen in the upcoming quarters. Thus, we expect NIMs to be around ~4.3% for FY24E/FY25E. ICICIBC has been investing in
the expansion of manpower as well as branches and the enhancement of digital infrastructure, which has resulted in an escalation in the
cost-to-income ratio. However, we expect the ratio to go down gradually, which will drive overall business growth, and partially manage the
pressure on the NIMs, resulting in sustainable earnings growth. We are optimistic about the bank’s outlook given its strong operating
performance and superior return ratio compared to its peers. We have factored in CAGR 18.6% growth in profits over FY23-24E with 18.0%
CAGR growth in advances and 16.9% growth in operating profits over FY23-25E. We have applied a P/ABV multiple of 2.6x to the FY24E ABV
of INR 400.1 per share, implying a SOTP valuation of INR 1,175 per share (unchanged). It has a potential upside of 29.8% at the CMP of INR
905 per share. As a result, we maintain our “BUY" rating on ICICI Bank's shares.
Entity Valuation Methodology Holding Value per share (INR)
ICICI Bank – Standalone Banking business / Parent 2.6x FY25E BV 100.0% 1,041.2
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance 2.0x FY25E EV 51.4% 61.3
ICICI Lombard General Insurance Current MCAP 51.9% 42.5
ICICI Prudential AMC 5% of FY25E AUM 51% 21.7
ICICI Securities Current MCAP 77.2% 15.4
ICICI Home Finance 2x FY25E BV 100.0% 4.9
ICICI Bank UK Plc 1x FY25E BV 100.0% 7.0
ICICI Bank Canada 1x FY25E BV 100.0% 5.0
Holding Co. Discount 15%
Value of subs after discount (INR Per share) 134
Value of Total 1,175
CMP 905
Upside 29.8%
Source: Company, KRChoksey Research

ANALYST KRChoksey Research Phone: +91-22-6696 5555, Fax: +91-22-6691 9576

Abhishek Agarwal research5@krchoksey.com, +91-22-6696 5575 is also available on Bloomberg KRCS<GO> www.krchoksey.com
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India Equity Institutional Research II Result Update – Q4 FY23 II 25th April 2023 Page 4

ICICI Bank Ltd.

KEY FINANCIALS (standalone)
Exhibit 1: Profit & Loss Statement

INR Mn FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24E FY 25E

Interest Income 7,91,183 8,63,746 10,92,313 13,38,522 15,74,748

Interest Expense 4,01,288 3,89,085 4,71,027 6,37,200 7,45,930

Net Interest Income 3,89,894 4,74,661 6,21,286 7,01,321 8,28,818

Non interest income 1,89,685 1,85,175 1,98,315 2,45,286 2,72,908

Operating income 5,79,580 6,59,836 8,19,601 9,46,607 11,01,725

- Employee expense 80,918 96,728 1,20,599 1,50,200 1,71,448

- Other operating expense 1,34,691 1,70,606 2,08,133 2,31,123 2,58,905

Operating Expense 2,15,608 2,67,333 3,28,732 3,81,323 4,30,353

PPOP 3,63,971 3,92,503 4,90,868 5,65,284 6,71,372

Provisions 1,62,144 86,414 66,656 67,967 73,466

PBT 2,01,827 3,06,089 4,24,212 4,97,317 5,97,906

Tax Expense 39,900 72,694 1,05,245 1,23,306 1,49,476

PAT 1,61,927 2,33,395 3,18,968 3,74,011 4,48,429

Diluted EPS (INR) 23.7 33.0 44.9 53.6 64.2

Source: Company, KRChoksey Research

ANALYST KRChoksey Research Phone: +91-22-6696 5555, Fax: +91-22-6691 9576

Abhishek Agarwal research5@krchoksey.com, +91-22-6696 5575 is also available on Bloomberg KRCS<GO> www.krchoksey.com
Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ
India Equity Institutional Research II Result Update – Q4 FY23 II 25th April 2023 Page 5

ICICI Bank Ltd.

Exhibit 2: Balance Sheet

INR Mn FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24E FY 25E

Source of Funds

Share capital 13,834 13,900 13,968 13,968 13,968

Reserves & Surplus 14,61,227 16,88,556 19,85,577 23,81,534 28,29,964

Networth 14,75,061 17,02,456 19,99,545 23,95,502 28,43,932

ESOP 31 2,664 7,609 7,609 7,609

Borrowings 9,16,310 10,72,314 11,93,255 14,24,084 15,61,140

Deposits 93,25,222 1,06,45,716 1,18,08,407 1,35,62,704 1,56,11,398

Other liabilities & provisions 5,87,704 6,89,828 8,33,251 12,03,628 18,52,026

Total Equity & Liabilities 1,23,04,327 1,41,12,977 1,58,42,067 1,85,93,527 2,18,76,105

Uses of Funds

Balances w/ banks & others 13,31,283 16,78,224 11,94,383 14,37,647 16,54,808

Investments 28,12,865 31,02,410 36,23,297 41,36,625 48,39,533

Loans & advances 73,37,291 85,90,204 1,01,96,383 1,20,31,001 1,41,99,260

Fixed assets 88,776 93,738 95,998 98,498 1,00,998

Other assets 7,34,112 6,48,401 7,32,005 8,89,757 10,81,505

Total Assets 1,23,04,327 1,41,12,977 1,58,42,067 1,85,93,527 2,18,76,105

Source: Company, KRChoksey Research

ANALYST KRChoksey Research Phone: +91-22-6696 5555, Fax: +91-22-6691 9576

Abhishek Agarwal research5@krchoksey.com, +91-22-6696 5575 is also available on Bloomberg KRCS<GO> www.krchoksey.com
Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ
India Equity Institutional Research II Result Update – Q4 FY23 II 25th April 2023 Page 6

ICICI Bank Ltd.

Exhibit 3: Ratio Analysis

Key Ratio FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24E FY 25E

Growth Rates

Advances (%) 13.7% 17.1% 18.7% 18.0% 18.0%

Deposits (%) 21.0% 14.2% 10.9% 14.9% 15.1%

Total assets (%) 12.0% 14.7% 12.3% 17.4% 17.7%

NII (%) 17.2% 21.7% 30.9% 12.9% 18.2%

Pre-provisioning profit (%) 29.5% 7.8% 25.1% 15.2% 18.8%

PAT (%) 104.2% 44.1% 36.7% 17.3% 19.9%

B/S Ratios

Credit/Deposit (%) 78.7% 80.7% 86.3% 88.7% 91.0%

CASA (%) 46.3% 45.0% 45.8% 45.9% 45.6%

Advances/Total assets (%) 59.6% 60.9% 64.4% 64.7% 64.9%

Leverage - Total Assets to Equity 8.34 8.29 7.92 7.76 7.69

Operating efficiency

Cost/income (%) 37.2% 40.5% 40.1% 40.3% 39.1%

Opex/total assets (%) 2.6% 2.9% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8%

Opex/total interest earning assets 2.6% 3.4% 3.5% 3.4% 3.3%

Profitability

NIM (%) 3.9% 4.0% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3%

RoA (%) 1.4% 1.8% 2.1% 2.2% 2.2%

RoE (%) 12.3% 14.7% 17.2% 17.0% 17.1%

Asset quality

Gross NPA (%) 4.96% 3.60% 2.81% 2.77% 2.73%

Net NPA (%) 1.14% 0.76% 0.48% 0.42% 0.35%

PCR (%) 77.7% 79.2% 82.8% 85.2% 87.4%

Credit cost (%) 2.0% 1.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6%

Per share data / Valuation

EPS (INR) 23.4 33.6 45.8 53.6 64.2

BVPS (INR) 213.2 245.0 286.4 343.1 407.3

ABVPS (INR) 200.0 235.0 279.0 335.8 400.1

P/E (x) 37.2 26.0 19.8 16.9 14.1

P/BV (x) 4.1 3.6 3.2 2.6 2.2

P/ABV (x) 4.4 3.7 3.2 2.7 2.3

Source: Company, KRChoksey Research

ANALYST KRChoksey Research Phone: +91-22-6696 5555, Fax: +91-22-6691 9576

Abhishek Agarwal research5@krchoksey.com, +91-22-6696 5575 is also available on Bloomberg KRCS<GO> www.krchoksey.com
Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ
India Equity Institutional Research II Result Update – Q4 FY23 II 25th April 2023 Page 7

ICICI Bank Ltd.

ICICI Bank Ltd. Rating Legend (Expected over a 12-month period)
Date CMP (INR) TP (INR) Recommendation
Our Rating Upside
25-Apr-23 905 1,175 BUY
24-Jan-23 872 1,175 BUY Buy More than 15%
25-Oct-22 925 1,115 BUY
Accumulate 5% – 15%
25-Jul-22 801 1,055 BUY
24-Jan-22 798 955 BUY Hold 0 – 5%

27-Dec-22 737 955 BUY

Reduce -5% – 0
25-Oct-21 847 955 ACCUMULATE
31-Aug-21 712 787 ACCUMULATE Sell Less than – 5%

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AGARWAL Date: 2023.04.25 08:54:18

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ANALYST KRChoksey Research Phone: +91-22-6696 5555, Fax: +91-22-6691 9576

Abhishek Agarwal research5@krchoksey.com, +91-22-6696 5575 is also available on Bloomberg KRCS<GO> www.krchoksey.com
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