The Future of Automotive Mobility - New

THE FUTURE OF
AUTOMOTIVE MOBILITY
THE FUTURE OF AUTOMOTIVE MOBILITY
Contents
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................................................... 3
2. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................................. 5
3. INDUSTRY SCENARIO & TRENDS.................................................................................................................................. 8
4. TECHNOLOGICAL SCENARIO & TRENDS ............................................................................................................... 23
5. CONSUMER SCENARIO & TRENDS ............................................................................................................................. 28
6. CONCLUSIONS................................................................................................................................................................... 32
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1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This 2020 edition of ‘The Future of mobility’ by TechVocacy explores the changes in the way people and
goods travel from point A to point B, driven by a series of converging technological and social trends: the
rapid growth of carsharing and ridesharing; the increasing viability of electric and alternative powertrains; new,
lightweight materials; and the growth of connected and, ultimately, autonomous vehicles. The result is the
emergence of a new ecosystem of mobility that could offer faster, cheaper, cleaner, safer, more efficient, and
more customized travel.
A constantly changing industry landscape means the requirements for success will evolve— understanding
them—and preparing for them—will be critical for business leaders and corporate entities who plan to stay
informed and make better informed decisions.
In this report, we've provided insights from a range of leading delivery stakeholders and experts, including:
KPMG, Capgemini, McKinsey & Company, EY, Cubic Transportation Systems, Deloitte, Arthur D Little,
Accenture and Chariot (Ford Smart Mobility). We’ve covered important questions such as what will the
business models of the future look like? Where will the battles for revenue be fought? How are the needs and
expectations of consumers changing? What disruptive technologies are defining the landscape of this industry?
How will regulations affect industry players?
Why does the future of mobility even matter?
As urbanization spreads, the demand for better mobility will multiply infinitely. All the major cities in the world
have alternatives that are effective. efficient and environmental-friendly too. From a birds-eye view this
problem looks terrifying, but even as you get closer you realize that the auto-industry alone impacts almost
every facet of the U.S. economy.
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According to Deloitte insights1, the
Automotive industry brings $735B revenue
to the table and Transportation services,
which also include rental cars, add another
$59B to the revenue. The entire auto
industry represents $2 trillion in revenue,
which is more than 10% of the entire GDP.
The industry has given employment to a
total of 10.8 million people in 2015, which
also includes motor vehicle operators. And
these figures don’t even include the
additional jobs that rely heavily on the
transportation system, such as warehouse
workers, public works employees, delivery
services, and those who provide ride shares.
With these stats, we can easily see that the
future of mobility can affect nearly everyone
who commutes to and from work and
almost every other person too.
Beyond the growing size of the industry and its surrounding market opportunities, experts believe the
transformation of the automotive industry will also be driven by regulation. In light of the further urbanization
worldwide, countries and cities, as the main regulators of mobility solutions, are starting to act stricter in
order to maintain environments that are worth living in. On the other side, there are key customer
requirements they will need to incorporate into their concepts, including:
• The majority of people worldwide claiming ownership of a car as highly important – mainly due to
status,
• Limitations of electric mobility due to limited operating reach, higher purchase price of electric cars
compared to internal combustion engines, and insufficient charging infrastructure,
• The fact that autonomous vehicle concepts (mostly) will be introduced in a brownfield environment
with legacy car parks, pedestrians and customers willing to accept autonomous and shared concepts as
an additional mobility option, not necessarily replacing owned cars.
In conclusion, it's an exciting time to be a stakeholder in the automotive industry. The traditional auto industry
is in flux. A new mobility ecosystem is emerging, setting the stage for immense innovation.
Today’s automakers face a not-so-distant future in which they will have to change dramatically. Powerful,
disruptive trends already are converging toward this outcome.
New entrants are emerging with business models that don’t require the automakers’ capital investment,
know-how in vehicle design and manufacturing, engineering prowess or dealership networks. Some of these
players are well-established in other industries; others are tiny start-ups. Governments and regulators are
initiating work to manage congestion and pollution and improve movement within their cities.
Read our report to learn about the future of mobility in the automotive industry in relation to how industry
stakeholders can innovate, commercialize and scale new mobility businesses and revenue models with the
agility and speed needed to compete with the new entrants out to grab market share.
1 https://www2.deloitte.com/insights/us/en/focus/future-of-mobility/overview.html
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2. INTRODUCTION
Mobility is undergoing one of the most transformational shifts of a generation, with far-reaching implications
for the way we live our lives. Frictionless, automated, personalized travel on demand—that’s the dream of the
future of mobility. And the future mobility ecosystem’s various elements are coalescing to realize that dream
sooner than expected, which means that incumbents and disruptors need to move at top speed to get on
board
The world’s population is increasingly city-based. 53% of the population currently lives in urban areas and by
2050 this number is expected to reach 67%. Today, 64% of all travel made is within urban environments and
the total amount of urban kilometers travelled is expected to triple by 2050. Delivering urban mobility to cope
with this increasing demand will thus require massive investment in the future. In addition to the increasing
demand for urban mobility, mobility needs are evolving.
Changing travel habits, demand for services to increase convenience, speed and predictability, as well as
evolving customer expectations toward individualization and sustainability will require mobility services
portfolio extension as well as business model transformation, while specialized players from other sectors are
assessing opportunities to play a role in the extended mobility ecosystem. As the mobility ecosystem evolves,
its global value is forecast to grow to more than US$1 trillion by 2030.
According to a study conducted by Arthur D. Little which assessed the mobility maturity and performance of
84 cities worldwide, it was discovered that most cities are still badly equipped to cope with the challenges of
future mobility. For the study, the mobility scores per city ranged from 0 to 100 index points (the maximum
of 100 points is defined by the best performance of any city in the sample for each criteria) 2.
The result of the study shows the following insights:
2 https://www.uitp.org/sites/default/files/members/140124%20Arthur%20D.%20Little%20%26%20UITP_Future%20of%20Urban%20Mobility%202%200_Full%20study.pdf
• Europe achieves the highest average score of the six world regions surveyed, with an average of 49.8
points (51.5 points for Western Europe and 45.2 for (South)-Eastern Europe) and nine out of the 26
analyzed European cities scoring above 52 points. European urban mobility systems are the most
mature ones as of today and lead the way in mobility performance. Stockholm (57.4), Amsterdam
(57.2) and Copenhagen (56.4 points) head the table – while Athens (40.0 points), Rome (40.9 points)
and Lisbon (41.3) are the worst European cities in the sample.
• Latin American and Asian Pacific cities show slightly below average performance. The continents’
average scores are well below Western Europe (43.9 and 42.8 points respectively) but outperform
other regions in public transport-related criteria (financial attractiveness of PT, share of modal split,
smart cards). Most cities in Latin America show an average performance of between 40 and 47 points,
while Asian Pacific cities show the broadest range in performance, from Hong Kong and Singapore with
scores of 58.2 and 55.6 respectively – sitting at the top of the global table – down to Hanoi with 30.9
points.
• USA/Canada shows average performance with 39.5 points. Given their orientation towards cars,
USA/Canadian cities rank bottom worldwide in terms of maturity. In terms of performance, they
perform above average overall, but show poor results with regard to number of cars per capita and
CO2 emissions. New York leads the way with 45.6 points, followed closely by Montreal with 45.4
points.
• Africa and the Middle East are the lowest performing regions with respective average point totals of
37.1 and 34.1. Whilst urban mobility systems in Africa perform well on several criteria due to the
lower number of cars, they are still at an evolving stage and haven’t reached sufficient maturity yet.
Middle East cities have high levels of cars per capita and are expected to invest in development of
environmental modes of transport in the mid-term perspective.
Meanwhile, mobility needs are evolving all over the world. People’s travel habits are changing, as is the mix of
transport modes and services offered to them. But it is clear that, going forward, transport providers will have
to satisfy demand for services that are increasingly convenient, fast and predictable. At the same time,
consumers are becoming more concerned about the sustainability of their mode of travel and some are
prepared to sacrifice individual forms of transport in furtherance.
Research shows that there is a direct correlation between mobility index of a city and its ability to attract
significant investment. According to the Siemens Megacity Challenges Study, 3 mobility was cited as the most
important issue for cities when it came to attracting investment, with 27% of respondents mentioning it, three
times more than the second mentioned factor, security.
3 Report: Siemens, Bureau of Transport Statistics, Arthur D. Little

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In conclusion, the future of personal mobility will be shaped by technologies, markets, business models,
consumer preferences, and policies. It will have wide-ranging consequences—not only in terms of mobility and
accessibility, but also in terms of congestion, road safety, air pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions. Only
through careful consideration of the interplay among these factors—together with rigorous analysis of the
costs, benefits, and impacts of different futures—can we begin to understand where we are headed and how
we might shape a future of mobility that is better for people and for our planet.
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3. INDUSTRY SCENARIO & TRENDS
3.1 Types of Automotive Mobility Services
New mobility services have been characterized as

more reliable, predictable, efficient, convenient,
accessible, and seamlessly connected compared to
established means of transportation, as well as
offering easier options for payment. New mobility
services also contribute to reducing parking demand,
pollution, and congestion, as well as provide energy
savings and transportation cost
savings for users. Each of these new mobility services
fits a specific niche, but they also partially overlap
with one another and with established means of
transportation. Which service is best for a given trip
depends on trip distance and amount of flexibility
(time, destinations available) that the traveler has
during the trip.
1. Ridehailing
Ridehailing services rely on smartphone apps to connect paying passengers with drivers who provide rides (for
a fee) in their private vehicles. Transportation Network Companies (TNCs) design and operate these online
platforms. Most TNCs function as digital marketplaces linking self-employed drivers with customers, while
collecting a fee for making the connection.
II. Ridesharing
Ridesharing is a type of carpooling that uses private vehicles, arranging shared rides on short notice between
travelers with a common origin and/or destination. Travelers share trip costs in these systems, that organize
either short- or long-distance ridesharing.
III. Carsharing
Carsharing is a short-term car rental, often by the hour. Electronic systems allow unattended access to the
vehicles. Gasoline and insurance are included in this type of service. These characteristics distinguish
carsharing from traditional car rental. Carsharing can be round-trip or one-way, free-floating or station-based.
IV. Bikesharing
Bikesharing is a system that provides free or affordable access to bicycles for short-distance trips, mostly in
urban areas. Most programs are organized either by local non-profit organizations or by public agencies.
Microtransit is a wide category encompassing various private transit services that use small buses and develop
flexible routes or schedules (or both) based on customer demand. Microtransit bridges the gap between single
user transportation and fixed-route public transit and resembles current route-deviation services.
VI. Mobility-as-a-Service
Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) is a mobility distribution model in which a person’s transportation needs are met
over one interface and are offered by a service provider. In general, transportation options (mass transit,
carsharing, Ridehailing, etc.) are bundled and the integrated
solution is presented to the user through a smartphone app and is paid through a single account.
VI. Shared Autonomous Vehicles

Shared autonomous vehicles (SAVs) are fully self-driving vehicles that do not need human operation, other
than providing information regarding the destination of the trip.
Market Characteristics of New Mobility Services
SERVICE MARKETS EXAMPLES

Ridehailing More than 75 countries globally. Uber
In the United States, 650,000 driver-partners work with Lyft
the two biggest operators, Uber and Lyf Didi
Ola
Get
Ridesharing Europe is the primary market globally. The biggest BlaBlaCar
operator, BlaBlaCar, has 25 million members across 22 vRide
European and South American countries. Limited presence Commut
in the United States
Carsharing 26 countries in North and South America, Europe, Asia, Zipcar
and Oceania. 1.2 million members and 16,700 vehicles in Car2go
the United States. Enterprise CarShare
Bikesharing Almost 1000 cities worldwide. Motivate
104 cities, 30,700 bicycles in the United States. DecoBike
Zagster
Microtransit Many developments exist in Europe, where the concept Bridj
was developed. In the United States, service currently is Chariot
limited to six major cities Via
Mobility As A Pilot projects in Europe and the United States. 70 cities in MaaS Global
Service the United States and Canada have MaaS-like solutions UbiGo
from moovel N.A. Transloc
Xerox
moovel
Shared Autonomous Technology remains in-development. Some companies are Google
Vehicles testing their technology, especially via private shuttles on EasyMile
campuses. Uber
Ford
GM
3.2 Landscape and growth of New Mobility Industry
Over the last decade, new mobility services have seen a substantial growth and expansion throughout the
world. Their growth prospects are positive, because societal attitudes and public policy have become more
supportive of new mobility services in the past years and this trend will likely continue. New mobility services
have a bigger market share potential in areas where public transit is present and more used, such as in Europe
and Asia.
Thus, there is a bigger growth potential for NMS in Europe and Asia than in North America. Even in urban
areas, NMS, like public transit, will not be suitable replacements for private vehicles for certain use cases:
drivers that take pride in their vehicles or value extra comfort or privacy, parents transporting young children,
and drivers who require special accessories in their vehicles, for example:
I. Ridehailing is expanding rapidly but faces regulatory headwinds

Since their beginnings in the late 2000s, ridehailing services have expanded at an extremely rapid pace within
the U.S. and to all the other continents. Uber, by far the most international of the TNCs, is now available in
about 75 countries and counting. Up until mid-2013, the main U.S. transportation network companies
registered a 25-percent monthly increase in users. By mid-2014, however, the growth rate had slowed to a
10-percent monthly increase.
The growth of the ridehailing business is boosted by a high consumer preference, the ability to fill
transportation needs not well met by other modes, and a yet ill-defined regulatory framework. Given their
high growth potential, investors have taken an interest in ridehailing. Nonetheless, TNCs face significant
obstacles in their growth, as competition among them stiffens, markets become saturated, and regulatory
frameworks are better defined. Ridehailing has also been banned or restricted in several countries and cities.
As such, TNCs are involved in various legal battles concerning a variety of aspects crucial to their business
models (e.g., licensing fees, driver status and benefits, insurance, and passenger safety).
II. Ridesharing is expanding in Europe and South America, less so in the United States
In the U.S. real-time ridesharing has had a slow growth since its beginnings in the early 2000s, despite the 400
local services available as of July 2011. New mobility solutions have expanded much more in Europe and South
America. Specifically, long-distance ridesharing has become increasingly popular over the past years in Europe.
For example, since its creation in 2006, the long-distance ridesharing community BlaBlaCar has expanded to
22 countries. Bikesharing has experienced constant growth since 2000. Globally, nearly 1000 cities are now
equipped with bikesharing systems. Microtransit, Mobility-as-a-Service, and shared autonomous vehicles are in
various phases of pilot projects across the globe. These developing new mobility services may prove to be as
impactful, or more so, than more established models.
III. Carsharing is growing steadily in the United

States and more rapidly in Europe and Asia Based on the current market potential, travel
Europe is the biggest carsharing market, with about
behavior trends, and historic growth patterns
2,206,000 members in 2014, followed by North America
(1,625,000 members). By contrast, the Asia–Oceania of existing operators, CAR estimates that
region has registered the fastest growth recently and carsharing programs will reach almost three
reached 1,006,000 members in 2014. The biggest drivers million members and comprise more than
of the carsharing growth are the increase in population 39,100 vehicles in the United States by 2021.
density, the slight decline in vehicle ownership, the
improvement of public transit networks, and policies
aimed at multimodal transportation. Some of the biggest challenges for carsharing are parking permits, high
initial expenses (acquiring vehicle fleet), insurance, and adapting to the differences between cities (density,
transportation networks), and brand recognition. As the carsharing market matures, operators are undergoing
a process of consolidation, multi-nationalization, and mainstreaming. The carsharing space is transitioning from
a multitude of nonprofits, co-ops and a few established businesses to an industry dominated by for-profit
operators. Despite this, peer-to-peer carsharing might continue to grow.
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CAR estimates that by 2021, North American carsharing programs will reach 3.8 million users and 50,800
vehicles. Membership growth will be steady but will gradually decrease as the market matures and saturates,
from 23 percent in 2016 to 6 percent in 2021. European programs are expected to grow to 10 million
members and 242,600 vehicles. Likewise, annual membership growth will slow, from 35 to 10 percent
between 2016 and 2021. It is expected that Germany will remain the largest European sub-market. The Asia–
Oceania region has the biggest growth potential (70 percent expected in 2016, gradually slowing down to 20
percent in 2021) and is likely to arrive at 15.7 million members and 317,000 vehicles.
3.3 Startup Investments in the Industry
Investments in new mobility start-ups have increased significantly. Since 2010, investors have poured $220
billion into more than 1,100 companies across ten technology clusters. Investors invested the first $100 billion
of these funds by mid-2016 and the rest thereafter.
Analysis on the mobility start-up and investment landscape shows activities across ten clusters.
1. Autonomous-vehicle (AV) sensors and advanced driver-assistance system (ADAS) components
2. AV software and mapping
3. Back end/cybersecurity
4. Batteries
5. Connectivity/infotainment
6. Electric vehicles and charging
7. E-hailing
8. Human–machine interface and voice recognition
9. Semiconductors
10. Telematics and intelligent traffic
Investment activities accelerated, with a few industry-shaping moves (Total disclosed investment amount since
2010)4
4
According to a study by McKinsey. Sample of 1,183 companies. Using selected keywords and sample start-ups, they were able to identify a set of similar companies
according to text-similarity algorithms (similarity to companies’ business description) used by the Competitive Landscape Analytics team.
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Source: McKinsey & Company
The chart above reveals one measure of how dramatically investments have grown involves a comparison of
the periods 2010–13 and 2014–18, when average investments across all technologies jumped sevenfold
(Exhibit 2). McKinsey reports that more than half of the investment volume comes from large investments
with transaction values greater than $1 billion—these are industry-shaping moves and include the mergers and
acquisitions (M&A) of established companies.
Another clear trend is the tech-company challenge to incumbent automotive players on mobility: these
nonautomotive players, together with venture capitalists and private-equity firms, are responsible for over 90
percent of the investments in the mobility space. Furthermore, we identified another strong acceleration of
investments in e-hailing players, mainly driven by large investments in top players. This indicates that investors
expect a high return on investment. These investments, however, need to be seen in conjunction with those in
autonomous driving (with a number of players active in both areas).
Autonomous driving can be seen as the endgame of e-hailing, potentially also being the road to (greater)
profitability of these solutions. We also noted several other investment highlights in 2018. For instance, the
latest transactions involving Cruise, the autonomous-driving unit of General Motors, reveal a post-money
valuation (a company’s value after it adds capital contributions and outside financing to its balance sheet) of
$14.6 billion. That alone is responsible for roughly a third of GM’s overall valuation on the public market.
What’s more, Cruise and Honda are collaborating on a purpose-built autonomous vehicle. Honda will devote
$2 billion to the effort over 12 years and make an additional $750 million equity investment in Cruise. In May
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2018, SoftBank Vision Fund made a $2.25 billion investment in Cruise, split into $900 million at closing and
$1.35 billion when GM is ready to deploy its autonomous cars for commercial use.
Furthermore, SoftBank invested an additional $0.94 billion in Nuro.ai. But autonomous-driving firms were not
the only ones to collect significant funds: Grab, a Southeast Asian ride-hailing service, received $2 billion in
new capital from investors including Toyota, which contributed $1 billion, and SoftBank, which invested $500
million. Grab’s current value is north of $10 billion
Key Industry highlights between 2018-2019
Beyond the overarching development, this section builds on existing industry analysis to deepen it in selected
areas, for instance, considering patent activity, shared micromobility, the rising cost of technology, regional
expansion, and other topics.
I. Patent activity favors incumbents. In addition to investments, which offer one lens on mobility-market
dynamics but do not capture internal company outlays, we also examined technology patents along the ACES
clusters. We found that battery and charging technologies account for about half of the relevant patents issued
but only 20 percent of company investments. That probably means many large companies do this work in-
house via their own research departments. Comparatively, e-hailing services show the lowest number of
patents issued, likely because differentiation in this cluster is driven more by network effects and less by
technology. Traditional automotive players make up less than 10 percent of all investments but issue about 85
percent of relevant patents—an indication they invest more in internal research and development than in
inorganic growth
Total number of patents since 20105, thousand
II. Shared micromobility debuts. Micromobility companies increased their investments by a factor of
more than five from 2014 to 2018. Total investments now significantly exceed $1 billion, with an average
investment of about $100 million per transaction in 2018. That’s comparable to the combined investments in
5
Obtained from McKinsey & Company. Sample of 1,183 companies. Using selected keywords and sample start-ups, McKinsey analysts were able to identify a set of
similar companies according to text-similarity algorithms (similarity to companies’ business description) used by the Competitive Landscape Analytics team.
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telematics, intelligent traffic systems, and the peer-to-peer space, although the average investment amount is
two
to three times as high. This investment intensity could support a view that sees it as a supplement
to the future e-hailing market (among others), driven by the transition from station-based vehicle sharing to
free-floating services
III. Technology is becoming more expensive. The median investment amount for relatively smaller deals
(less than $100 million investment volume) has increased two- to threefold since 2013, suggesting that the
average cost of technology increased in recent years. This could indicate a maturing of the technology toward
industrialization and deployment, as well as an overall increase in the cost of participating in the race for ACES
technology
IV. The regional split is lopsided. Over a third of the overall investment in mobility went to companies
in the United States, followed by China ($51 billion), the United Kingdom ($34 billion), and Israel ($18.5
billion, where $17.4 billion comes from investments into Mobileye). The next highest European country is
France, in tenth position. Even though the European Union (EU), excluding the United Kingdom, receives only
5 percent of global funding, it contains 19 percent of all identified companies (Exhibit 4). Thus, average
investment sums in Europe remain far behind those in the United States and China. This breakdown is similar
when looking at the source of money as opposed to the recipients: the top investors come from the United
States, Japan, and China, while the largest investor in the European Union is Germany, at only $4 billion
Investments show regional variations, with the greatest activity in China, the United Kingdom,
and the United States
Source: CapitalIQ; Pitchbook; Cipher; McKinsey analysis
V. SoftBank is heavily invested. Japanese tech player SoftBank has invested about $30 billion in automotive
ACES trends to date, with a focus on autonomous driving and e-hailing. With its recent investment in Cruise
and Nuro.ai, SoftBank now has a stake of more than $9 billion in autonomous driving, making it a strong
player in the mobility space. An additional $30 billion has been invested in the semiconductor business, with
significant exposure to future of-mobility topics, in particular the hardware to bring about autonomous driving.
VI. Tech-company valuations outpace incumbents. Comparing today’s valuations to those of 2010
shows the total market capitalization of traditional OEMs decreased by more than 10 percent. Meanwhile,
tech players in the automotive space—such as Tesla, Uber, and Waymo—increased strongly and are now
even higher than the valuations of traditional OEMs. Uber’s recent valuation of more than $70 billion makes it
more valuable than traditional premium OEMs such as BMW or Daimler. And although traditional OEM invest
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less in inorganic moves, they still hold a strong position in the ACES trends based on their patents and massive
R&D expenses.
New mobility providers valuation has risen tremendously (Valuation, $ billion)
3.4 Regulation will drive the transformation of the automotive industry
The new mobility ecosystem offers the potential for massive benefits—and disruption. Who will ensure that
still-unproven technologies improve safety and make people’s lives better? The burden will likely fall on
regulators.
The Future of Mobility: Balancing innovation and the public good in autonomous vehicles,
shared mobility, and beyond
Bikesharing. Electric vehicles. Self-driving cars. Micro-transit shuttles. E-scooters. Truck platooning. Drone
delivery. These developments and more are fueling some of the most disruptive changes in transportation
since the invention of the automobile. The result could be a new mobility ecosystem that enables people and
goods to move faster, cheaper, cleaner, and safer than today, benefiting individual travelers, governments,
businesses, and society at large.
Yet it could also be a world in which unproven technologies worsen, rather than improve, safety. In which
congestion increases as people abandon subways for individual robo-taxis. In which communities become
transportation deserts. In which some of our most sensitive personal information—where and when and with
whom we travel—could be compromised
The onus for preventing these negative outcomes rests with many participants in the mobility sphere, including
the companies developing new technologies and services. But regulators and policymakers have a unique,
critical role to play. While others may have laudable intentions and strive for societal benefits, it’s government
that ultimately has the ability—and responsibility—to safeguard and further the public good.
Regulating the future of mobility is a complex challenge, involving uncertain timing, authorities at multiple
levels of government, and a host of issues that extend far beyond a vehicle’s ability to safely navigate city
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streets. The rapid pace of developments and the idiosyncrasies of any given regulator’s mandate, authority,
political constraints, and resources only add to the uncertainty and complexity.
In such an environment, it can be helpful to start with first principles6. Experts from Deloitte have developed
five guidelines for regulating emerging technologies and this report applies those guiding principles to some of
the core regulatory challenges posed by the future of mobility, including ensuring the safety and functionality of
autonomous vehicles (AVs) and other new modes; establishing protocols for safely and securely managing
data; and addressing congestion and ensuring access. These principles are not mutually exclusive—indeed, they
are often complementary. Local conditions will, of course, shape any jurisdiction’s specific regulations. As with
many of the issues raised by the future of mobility, one size does not fit all. Our intent is not to advocate for
more (or less) regulation. Indeed, in some instances, applying our principles may result in a lighter regulatory
footprint. Our aim is to offer tools to help regulators approach the complex issues associated with mobility in
a way that can help foster innovation, engender economic prosperity, improve safety, and increase access to
transportation.
Five regulatory principles to tackle emerging technologies
Source: William D. Eggers, Mike Turley, et al - The Future of Regulations (Deloitte Insights)
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William D. Eggers, Mike Turley, and Pankaj Kishnani, The future of regulation: Principles for regulating emerging technologies,
Deloitte Insights, June 19, 2018.
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The global regulatory landscape for mobility
A number of regulatory authorities have begun grappling with the challenges posed by the future of mobility.
In general, their efforts have been focused on a handful of high-profile, near-term issues: regulating rapidly
growing ride-hailing services and creating guidelines for the testing and piloting of AVs.
• Shared mobility: Many transportation agencies were caught flat-footed by the rapid emergence of
on-demand ride-hailing, which upended cities’ relatively staid taxi and hired car markets seemingly
overnight. In New York, ride-hail trips now significantly outnumber taxi trips7. In London, ridesharing
has displaced passengers from buses, leading to lower revenues from fares and raising questions about
the levels of subsidy for some routes. 8Reacting to concerns ranging from the treatment of workers to
the impact on cab drivers and the potential for increased congestion, national and local regulators have
hastened to take steps, ranging from new licensing requirements (London)9 and per-trip fees
(Chicago)10 to caps on the number of vehicles (New York)11 and even outright bans on some types of
service (Germany). 12As with the broader sharing and gig economies, regulators have had to balance
consumer wants, worker welfare, and the interests and innovations of the private sector. And even as
they are coming to grips with ride-hailing, new options such as e-scooters and dockless bikesharing
have grown dramatically, shifting the mobility landscape once again13. Too often, regulatory authorities
are reacting, rather than proactively defining what mobility goals are a priority and assessing how new
technologies might help (or hinder) achieving them.
• Autonomous vehicles: To date, developers of AV technology have enjoyed a largely permissive

global regulatory environment. With some exceptions, most major economies have placed relatively
few restrictions on AV development or testing. The most active governments have created new
regulations or modified existing ones to accommodate testing on public roads, clarifying the roles and
responsibilities of developers. Singapore, for example, in February 2018 modified its Road Traffic Act,
giving the Ministry of Transportation significant authority to regulate where and when AV trials can be
conducted, as well as vehicle standards and data reporting requirements. 14In the United Kingdom, the
Automated and Electric Vehicle Act provided important clarification about insurance requirements and
liability for vehicles operating in autonomous mode, one of the first pieces of legislation to directly
address the issue.15
• Getting ahead of three key mobility challenges: With some exceptions, regulatory bodies at the
national, regional, and local levels have not approached the future of mobility in a way that considers its
full range of potential opportunities and impacts. By focusing on today’s challenges—such as coping
with fast-growing ride-hailing services or setting the stage for limited AV testing—governments risk
missing an opportunity to proactively shape tomorrow’s mobility environment. A more forward-
looking and comprehensive approach to new mobility technologies and services informed by data and
grounded in a set of underlying principles can help regulators craft guidance that ensures a mobility
system that is more efficient, effective, and inclusive. The figure below summarizes how the guiding
principles for regulating emerging technologies might be applied to three mobility domains.
7 New York City Department of Transportation, New York City mobility report, June 2018
8 Andrew Gilligan, “Any more fares? Only for Uber, fears TfL,” Times of London, October 29, 2017
9 Based on an exchange rate of US$1.00:£0.72. Transport for London, “A guide for applicants who are applying for a London private hire operator’s licence,” accessed March 12, 2018
10 John Byrne and Bill Ruthhart, “Emanuel’s 2018 budget approved; cost of phone fees and ride-share trips to rise,” Chicago Tribune, November 21, 2017.
11 Emma G. Fitzsimmons, “Uber hit with cap as New York City takes lead in crackdown,” New York Times, August 8, 2018
12 Frank Siebelt, “German court upholds ban of unlicensed Uber taxi service,” Reuters, June 9, 2016
13 Eliot Brown, “Scooter startups roll into trouble as cities slow their expansion,” Wall Street Journal, August 11, 2018.
14 Kevin Kwang, “Singapore re-looking road rules to allow for self-driving cars,” Channel News Asia, June 6, 2018
15 Gov.uk, “New powers to kick-start the rollout of electric chargepoints across the nation,” July 19, 2018.
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INSIGHT – SNAPSHOT OF THE MOBILITY INDUSTRY
1. Mobility is an interconnected system. Regulators should adopt a systemwide perspective, while operating
within the limits of their legal authority and political realities. People and goods move across local and regional
jurisdictions and national borders, and technologies are increasingly developed to serve a global customer base.
In most cities, residents use a host of different modes—private cars, buses, trains, bikes, pedestrians—that all
share critical infrastructure, creating a complex web of interdependencies. Crafting regulations for a single type
of transportation or a single geography without a broader systems approach is likely to yield myopic rules that
fail to meet users’ needs. Deloitte’s City Mobility Index, which analyzes the transportation landscape in dozens
of global cities, finds that such an integrated approach by regulators and transit operators is one of the
hallmarks of municipalities with leading mobility networks .
2. “Regulation versus innovation” can be a false choice. While overly restrictive rules can hamper private
sector activities, regulators should challenge the notion that regulation and innovation are diametrically
opposed. Some regulatory handrails, well-implemented, could act as an important catalyst for the development
of new forms of mobility. Guidance and rules that cover progressively larger geographic areas can help avoid a
hodgepodge of differing and potentially conflicting local regulations . Global automakers and technology
companies are investing heavily in self-driving cars, electric vehicles, and other new mobility options. Absent
clear guidance on the standards those technologies will need to meet, many in the private sector risk wasting
potentially billions of dollars on efforts that may ultimately have to be abandoned for failing to meet regulatory
approval.
3. Trust will fuel the future of mobility. Regulators should aim to foster trust among all parties. Attitudes
toward AVs remain inchoate and malleable, and deep-seated cognitive biases could limit adoption. Shiny new
technology in and of itself is unlikely to convince the public of the merits of new forms of transportation. The
future of mobility has the potential to address many vexing societal challenges, including congestion, emissions,
and uneven access to economic opportunities. But without public trust fostered by customer-focused
implementation, players in the new mobility ecosystem could squander a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to
remake for the better one of the fundamental building blocks of modern society. Regulators can play a key role
in nurturing that trust.
3.5 Major Trends Defining the Industry

Introduction
The automotive industry has the opportunity to shape this The mobility of the future will be
fundamental restructuring. When devising strategies and much easier, more flexible and more
business models, companies should not only consider direct individual for users. The vehicle of the future will
product purchasers, but all users and groups affected by be used on demand with shared ownership.
transport issues. The automobile has long since changed from
a technical to a social commodity: it guarantees our personal mobility and social participation, shapes our cities
and landscapes, and structures our temporal and spatial thinking. This is why we have to rethink the whole
automotive industry – with the focus on the use rather than the production of vehicles, in order to make the
lives of individual users more enjoyable, more efficient and safer:
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Current Trends – What’s going on?
1. Rising prices for privately owned vehicles:
Society is no longer willing to bear the high cost of private vehicle ownership without making the vehicle
owner pay. Owning a car will become more expensive in many ways, be it higher registration, fuel taxes, road
tolls or parking fees. Experiments are underway to incentivize people to make different choices. Some
companies are offering employees direct benefits to not drive – by, for example, subsidising the cost of public
transit, bike sharing or scooter rentals, while raising the cost of driving. T
The impact of increasing prices will be felt in many ways, including lower vehicle sales, people moving closer to
work and increased use of public transport. But for these higher costs to make a significant impact, people
must be offered reasonable alternatives to driving themselves.
Mobility is essential to economic prosperity for every person, city, region and nation. Affordable, efficient
mobility is a way out of poverty and a route towards employment, dignity and healthcare. Many companies are
entering the market to offer mobility choice - although it is not always happening in a manner that is making
our lives better.
There are many unintended side effects, such as ride-hailing services adding to congestion, dock-less bikes
blocking sidewalks and roads, electric bikes catching fire, people getting killed riding scooters or bikes, and
women being attacked by ride-sharing drivers or by men posing as ride-sharing drivers. Car sharing,
meanwhile, won’t get more cars off the roads unless those cars are fully or nearly fully occupied. Transit
regulators are beginning to exert their power or are gaining new powers to address some of these
externalities.
2. More engaged citizenry are demanding inclusive mobility.
People today are insisting that mobility is a right and a public good, and that it must be inclusive. Governments
and the citizens they serve are asking questions such as:
• What can we do better?
• What kind of future do we want?
• How can we reclaim our spaces and put people first, not cars?
• How can we address rural mobility needs?
Around the globe, inclusivity and improved quality of life are top of the list of the most important issues. This
means that mobility must serve everyone - including those on low incomes, the disabled and elderly, and
places with low demand such as rural areas. Inclusive mobility is mobility that is safe for everyone, including
women. This is not an orderly trend; rather it will involve a lot of experimentation, no single correct solution,
and a very long horizon.
As our quality of life degrades as a result of congestion, and as people are excluded from mobility options,
they are less willing to accept the status quo and more willing to experiment with alternative mobility options.
Technological advances can be harnessed to make mobility more inclusive and improve quality of life.
Advances in artificial intelligence, machine learning, data analytics, connectivity and automation are being
applied to mobility. But they cannot happen in a vacuum.
3) Increased private-public partnership around mobility.
Some ride-sharing companies are being subsidized by governments to get people from outlying areas to public
transit hubs. Various autonomous vehicle (AV) shuttle companies are now operating services in city centres,
replacing select public bus lines or extending services into new areas, such as at night near university
campuses. Cities are hiring mobility-as-a-service providers to operate ticketing systems. Rural authorities are
partnering with on-demand, high-occupancy ride-hailing companies to serve outlying areas. Transit authorities
are creating dedicated offices devoted to advancing automated technologies. State governments are passing
laws allowing for automated trucks, shuttles and taxis. Consortia are being formed to educate the public and
to advocate for safety and cleaner powertrains.
A consensus is forming that we cannot do this alone. We cannot make mobility safer, cleaner or more
inclusive without partnering and without sharing solutions. Inclusive mobility holds the promise for businesses
to find new markets for growth and for governments to enact balanced policies that improve everyone’s lives.
What viable business models and industrial policies of the future will look like is unknown and will shift over
time. People and governments are becoming frustrated with the traditionally slow pace of public transit
improvements and the associated costs. Many are turning to the private sector to help deliver real solutions
faster and more affordably. And there is widespread belief in the potential of Fourth Industrial Revolution
technologies to solve seemingly intractable mobility problems.
Future Trends – What’s next?
Given the disparate forces shaping the landscape, analysts at Deloitte envision four different personal mobility
futures emerging from the intersection of two critical trends
• Vehicle control (driver versus autonomous)

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• Vehicle ownership (private versus shared)
Deloitte’s analysis concludes that change will happen unevenly around the world, with different populations
requiring different modes of transportation—which means that the four future states may well exist
simultaneously. In other words, business leaders will need to prepare their organizations to be capable of
operating in four different futures, with distinct sets of customers—beginning in as little as 5–15 years. Here
we offer a high-level description of each future state and the conditions that promote its eventual emergence.
Source: Graphic: Deloitte University Press | DUPress.com
Extent to which autonomous vehicle technologies become pervasive:

• Depends upon several key factors as catalysts or deterrents—e.g., technology, regulation, social
acceptance
• Vehicle technologies will increasingly become "smart”; the human-machine interface shifts toward
greater machine control
Extent to which vehicles are personally owned or shared:

• Depends upon personal preferences and economics
• Higher degree of shared ownership increases system-wide asset efficiency
Future state 1: Incremental change

This most conservative vision of the future puts heavy weight on the massive assets tied up in today’s system,
assuming that these assets’ owners will neither willingly abandon them nor eagerly transfer capital into new
enterprises with uncertain returns. It sees private ownership remaining the norm, with consumers opting for
the particular forms of privacy, flexibility, security, and convenience that come with owning vehicles.
Importantly, while incorporating driver-assist technologies, this vision assumes that fully autonomous drive
won’t become widely available anytime soon.
With so little change envisioned, this future state reinforces automakers’ reliance on a business model that
emphasizes unit sales. They continue to invest in the development and introduction of new vehicle lines with
advanced technologies, and dealers retain responsibility for the customer experience. Other industry players
are similarly incented to rely on the practices and structures that have been well established for decades
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Future state 2: A world of carsharing
The second future state anticipates continued growth of shared access to vehicles. In this state, economic
scale and increased competition drive the expansion of shared vehicle services into new geographic territories
and more specialized customer segments. Here, passengers more heavily value the convenience of point-to-
point transportation created through ridesharing and carsharing, saving them the hassle of navigating traffic and
finding parking spaces. Plus, the system offers options for non-drivers such as seniors, low income
families, and minors without licenses.
In this future state, as the cost per mile decreases, some come to view ridesharing as a more economical,
convenient, and sustainable way to get around, particularly for short point-to-point movements (see below for
our analysis of the economics of mobility). As shared mobility serves a greater proportion of local
transportation needs, multivehicle households can begin reducing the number of cars they own while others
may abandon ownership altogether, reducing future demand.
Future state 3: The driverless revolution

The third state is one in which autonomous drive technology proves to be viable, safe, convenient, and
economical, yet private ownership continues to prevail. Collaboration between leading academics, regulatory
agencies, and businesses accelerates progress toward this future. Both technology and automotive firms
continue investing heavily to increase “V2X” (V2V and V2I) capabilities; in parallel, driverless technology
matures, with the success of early pilots fostering quick adoption.
Given that this future state assumes most drivers still prefer owning their own vehicles, individuals seek the
driverless functionality for its safety and other potential benefits but continue to own cars for many of the
same reasons they did before the advent of autonomous drive. They might even invest more in their vehicles
as a new era of customization dawns and it becomes appealing to use vehicles tailored for specific occasions
and circumstances. That said, the features in which owners are willing to invest, and the design of the vehicles
themselves, may change; this new segment of the market may offer lighter, more technically advanced vehicles
that embrace design principles counter to today’s four-door, driver-in-front-on-left, gripping-the-steering
wheel reality.
Future state 4: A new age of accessible autonomy

The fourth future state anticipates a convergence of both the autonomous and vehicle-sharing trends. In this
future, mobility management companies offer a range of passenger experiences to meet widely varied needs at
differentiated price points.
The earliest, most avid adopters seem likely to be urban commuters, given the potential for faster trips thanks
to reduced distances between highly automated vehicles, and routes enhanced by real-time awareness of
conditions. Over time, as smart infrastructure expands and driver usage nears a tipping point, fleets of
autonomous shared vehicles could spread from urban centers to densely populated suburbs and beyond.
Advanced communications technologies coordinate the customer’s point-to-point mobility experience:

Intuitive interfaces enable users to order a vehicle pickup within minutes and travel from point A to point B
efficiently, safely, and cost-effectively. Vehicle and traffic network systems operators, in-vehicle content-
experience providers (e.g., software and infotainment firms), and data owners (e.g., telecoms) could have
further opportunities to monetize the value of passengers’ attention in transit as well as additional metadata
pertaining to system use.
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4. TECHNOLOGICAL SCENARIO & TRENDS
Introduction
The changing face of mobility promises to evolve traditional business models while offering new opportunities
for travel bookings with travel suppliers and intermediaries. As emerging technologies move into the
mainstream, stellar service and a great user experience are the primary means for brand positioning and
differentiation. This is something to consider as automation technology digs ever-deeper into the travel
infrastructure.
#1. EMBEDDED AUTONOMOUS TECHNOLOGY
Current trends – What’s going on?
I. Startups are at the very heart of the autonomous technology evolution: The startup ecosystem
for embedded self-driving technology has numerous facets. It does not just cover the Autonomous Systems &
Artificial Intelligence aspects that operate the vehicle, but also the array of onboard sensors and vision
technologies, as well as the more sophisticated mapping technologies. On all these innovations, startups had
the upper hand and are at the center of big players’ attention as shown by recent
acquisition and new funding records. Through them, traditional actors have the real opportunity to boost their
technology push and speed-up their autonomous vehicle programs.
Source: Worldwide distribution of startups by type of embedded autonomous technology. Source: Dealroom.
II. Investors are betting on startups developing improved onboard sensors and vision
technologies: One of the hottest technologies among the Embedded Autonomous Technology field is
onboard sensors and vision technologies with nearly $1.7bn of total investments during 2017. LiDAR “Light
Detection and Ranging” startups represent strategical targets for investors and particularly carmakers with
more than $719m global funding. In 2017, GM and Ford-backed Argo AI acquired promising US LiDAR
startups (Strobe and Princeton Lightwave) to accelerate their autonomous vehicle developments, reduce costs
of production and also take control of their supply chain. In addition to Radar and LiDAR-based solutions,
autonomous vehicles require very good camera vision systems to reach full autonomy in natural unconstrained
environments. Last year’s acquisition of Mobileye by Intel for $15.3bn or the latest $600m record for venture
capital funding in the AI sector set by the Chinese SenseTime, specialized in camera-based image processing
and valuated at $4.5bn, show how crucial those innovations are. Key investors are recognizing the value of the
startups that innovate on hardware components and are moving their pawns forwards to lock down this
technology for their own autonomous vehicle programs.
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III. The new value chain requires AI expertise: 28 startups, representing around $2.3bn of total funding,
are creating AI software for autonomous vehicles using deep learning technology. 4 well known startups -
Argo AI, Nauto, Pony AI and Preferred Networks - have received more than $1.4bn from carmakers since
2014. GM has acquired Cruise automotion in 2016 for $1bn and startups like Aurora Tech. or Nutonomy
have already announced key partnerships with Volkswagen / Hyundai and PSA respectively. The effervescence
around those startups is due to the shift from equipment-first sector to software-first sector. Carmakers who
truly take that shift into account and enter the new value chain will win the race and stay competitive but
transforming themselves into technology-first companies will not be easy. Establishing partnerships with
exciting and promising startups seem to be the royal road to achieve this transformation.
IV. The fierce competition to map the world: The best AI software in the world will not be enough for
a vehicle to be fully autonomous. It will need highly sophisticated, ultra precise maps updated in real time and
augmenting the sensors to circulate on roads. For this reason, carmakers have been investing for several years
in cartography specialized startups and firms. BMW, Daimler and Audi, for instance, acquired for €2.8bn the
Here company in 2015. These so called high definition or 3D maps go far beyond basic turn-by-turn directions
of currently embedded GPS’s and have become the sinews of the war. Carmakers are at work to ensure that
they will not become dependent to the omnipresent actor Google and its well known Google Maps service.
Some startups like Civil Maps, DeepMap, Carmera, Momenta AI or Ushr still try to make a place in this highly
competitive market, dominated by TomTom and Here. But the game will prove very difficult, despite the
fundraisings.
#2. CAR AND DRIVER DATA
I. The data generated by connected cars will become more significant with the arrival of
autonomy: The exploitation of data from vehicles is one of the leading field of investigation for the startups
of our panel. Currently, the majority of the car fleet still consists of unconnected vehicles, and many (87%)
startups of this category only exist to overcome the lack of connectivity of current vehicles. These startups
embed hardware plugins or use sensors from passenger smartphones to collect data and offer all types of
services based on the analysis of vehicle data.
Number of startups by type of connected services provided. Source: Dealroom.
II. Connectivity and openness are no longer options: Nowadays, carmakers tend to systematically
produce connected vehicle by default, and regulators enforce manufacturers and mobility operators to expose
their collected data through APIs in order to allow service providers to access data at various level of
processing (raw data, pre-processed, enriched). Some carmakers have already started this transformation by
opening part of their connected vehicle APIs and encouraging developers to innovate and build services
around mobility. This openness policy has to go hand in hand with a reflection on protection and use of the
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personal data of drivers and travelers. On this specific point, the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR)
is a structuring element: from the car manufacturers’ and mobility operators’ point of view who will have to
demonstrate that the data subject consented to the processing of his or her personal data, but also from the
service providers’ point of view who will have to ensure that personal data is processed in a lawful, fair and
transparent way with regard to the data subject, collected for specified, explicit and legitimate purposes, and
not be further processed in an incompatible way with these purposes.
III. Mastering the autonomous car’s data-driven ecosystem: According to Intel CEO, Brian Krzanich,
in 2020 the average autonomous car may process 4,000 gigabytes of data per day. Indeed, on-board AI
systems, as well as other embedded technology like sensors and mapping which power self-driving, must be
constantly producing data. That’s why carmakers are now searching for platforms which are capable of
handling the huge amount of data generated by self-driving cars. Applications for effective data storage and
processing are numerous and we can divide them into two categories:
• Running and improving the autonomous driving system
• Providing crucial services applications like diagnostics and fleet management
In this race, very few startups position themselves on this market segment as it requires an access to new
generation vehicles to test the future technologies and services. These startups are, for the most part, already
linked to major players in the market.
#3. FUTURE CARS POWER
I. Cars tend to be electric: It is the moment for ecology and major markets are already aiming to
significantly reduce their pollution rate. One big challenge for tomorrow’s vehicles is therefore for automakers
and their suppliers to find innovative solutions to reduce the emissions and consumption of their ever smarter
and energy-hungry cars. Everything suggests that futures vehicles will be neither gasoline nor diesel, and
research is therefore massively focused on alternative greener energies. For the time being, hybrids vehicle
market is growing but appears to be more like a transition phase towards eco-friendly vehicles than a real
sustainable alternative. Alternative fuel vehicles have particularly seen their sales increase by 39.7% in 2017 in
Europe, which shows the will of consumers to favor other energies over fuel. In addition, a significant number
of countries shows their willingness to stop sales of gasoline and diesel vehicles.
II. Electric under the spotlight: The hype surrounding electric vehicles is building and is setting new
records with its worldwide sales rising by 58% in 2017 (pure-electric & plug-in hybrid vehicles). Mandated to
be a clean and eco-friendly energy, electric market managed to enticed consumers as well as automakers, who
do not hesitate to invest massively in it. This field has seen many startups flourish, representing nearly one
billion dollars of investments in the last three years for our panel of around twenty startups specialized in
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batteries and next-gen components. Their purpose is to ensure the level of power and operating life required
for electric vehicles of tomorrow, which happens to be one of their weaknesses right now. The most skeptical
ones are however wondering about the real impact of electric engines on ecology and exhibit its controversial
production in nuclear power plants or coal plants. This is one of the main arguments, with the charging time of
its batteries, of those who advocate another source of energy that claims also to be ecofriendly: hydrogen.
III. Hydrogen can still come into play: Although it seems less popular than electric, hydrogen has not yet
said its last word. Indeed, while automotive giants like GM and Tesla are all about electric cars and seem to
have completely abandoned the latter option, other automakers do not hesitate to invest huge sums on it.
Toyota, Daimler and BMW are leading a group of 13 companies across the world: the Hydrogen Council, that
will invest $10 billion over the next 10 years in developing hydrogen technology and infrastructure. Even
though there are a lot of investments, almost no startups exist in the field of hydrogen, and investments mainly
concern heavy infrastructures for hydrogen storage and distribution. Moreover, as the current demand of
hydrogen vehicles remains so low, similarly to the number of cars already on the roads, these are long-term
investments that do not allow profits before a real democratization of such cars.
#4. CYBERSECURITY
I. When cybersecurity comes into play: The automotive industry must now consider cybersecurity as an
integral part of how cars are built, just as physical safety became a critical part of how cars were built in the
late 20th century. Many people in this field caught on leading to the creation of many startups on the topic.
Today, no less than 20 startups try to provide solutions to face automotive cyber risks.
Due to the current specificities and constraints related to the automotive industry and connected car in
particular, startups are having to adapt existing cybersecurity concepts and solutions while innovating
including:
• Manufacturing costs;
• Proprietary and specific technologies for embedded materials, with little
• security originally integrated (e.g. CAN– Controller Area Network);
• Systems with a long lifetime and complicated upgrade capacity;
• Limited processing capacity;
• Architecture complexity
II. Major actors investing startups at an unprecedented pace: The ongoing creation of cybersecurity
startups in the automotive industry over the past years highlights the fact that cybersecurity has become a top
concern in the sector. Established automotive companies, like car
and equipment manufacturers, know this well. Some focus on hiring new talents and/or developing
technologies in-house but most of them are very aggressive in investing or buying startups at an
unprecedented pace. Are they afraid of the potential competition? Are they unable to provide these
innovations with their own R&D teams? Do they want to accelerate with the integration of new ways.
III. A new area of risk is rising: The arrival of autonomous cars is a new challenge for cybersecurity. Many
new risk scenarios will have to be considered, mainly in the field of attacks on artificial intelligence, advanced
sensors security and even automated response to cyber events. To face this new challenge, solutions are only
at a development phase and not particularly dedicated to the automotive sector. Many researchers like
Nicolas Papernot or Ian Goodfellow are currently working on how to prevent Adversarial Attacks which aim
at deceiving AI and which could lead, if applied to an autonomous car, to safety issues. Breakthrough solutions
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are probably being developed by startups from the Zeroth. AI accelerator, an Artificial Intelligence and
Machine Learning focused startup accelerator.
Although they will undoubtedly provide bleeding edge solutions to these complex problems, no one has
declared working on the automotive field yet. Certainly, cybersecurity and safety will have to be addressed
jointly to make autonomous vehicles a reality.
Responses from 83 automotive and technology executives. Source: Foley, 2017 Connected Cars &
Autonomous Vehicles Survey (2017)
INSIGHTS – TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS DRIVING FUTURE MOBILITY
With the help of disruptive future technologies, the future vehicle is much more than just connected:
1. Embedded Autonomous Technology: As autonomous-driving technology advances, new transportation use

cases will emerge, largely driven by factors such as what is transported, type of vehicle ownership, and where the
vehicle operates.
2. Car & Driver Data: The data generated by connected cars will become more significant with the arrival of
autonomy. Currently, the majority of the car fleet still consists of unconnected vehicles, and many (87%) startups
of this category only exist to overcome the lack of connectivity of current vehicles.
3. Future Cars Data: It is the moment for ecology and major markets are already aiming to significantly
reduce their pollution rate. One big challenge for tomorrow’s vehicles is therefore for automakers and their
suppliers to find innovative solutions to reduce the emissions and consumption of their ever smarter and energy-
hungry cars.
4. Cybersecurity: The automotive industry must now consider cybersecurity as an integral part of how
cars are built, just as physical safety became a critical part of how cars were built in the late 20th century.
Many people in this field caught on leading to the creation of many startups on the topic. Today, no less than 20
startups try to provide solutions to face automotive cyber risks.
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5. CONSUMER SCENARIO & TRENDS

Introduction
Research shows that consumers are slowly turning away from the concept of car ownership as a necessity and
are looking at new options of mobility – car sharing. A study by ABI Research forecasts that 400 million
people will rely on robotic car sharing by 2030. Companies such as Zipcar and Uber are already gaining huge
market share, steadily growing in popularity as an alternative to vehicle ownership. Consumers are turning to
these alternatives as a means to more efficient vehicle utilization and more affordable transportation. LA
Times reporter Jerry Hirsch once noted: “For at least 22 hours a day most cars sit parked, sucking up their
owners’ money while waiting to be driven. For most people, it’s one of their most underutilized — but most
expensive — assets.” Consumers are looking for new ways to capitalize on these assets.
For this section, we will cover the following topics:

• Understanding consumers’ preferences for mobility based— consumer mobility types.
• Understanding consumers’ perspectives on key mobility trends.
• 5 Trends related to the growing expectations and needs of consumers for mobility.
Understanding Consumers’ preferences – The Mobility Consumers of the Future
In a particularly interesting study by Arthur D. Little, Future of Mobility 2020, seven types of mobility types
were identified: Greenovators, Family Cruisers, Silver Drivers, High-Frequency Commuters, Global Jet Setters,
Sensation Seekers and Low-End Users16.
• Greenovators: By 2020, they will make up almost 30% of the population. Due to their
environmentally-conscious lifestyle, restraint in consumption and luxury are important and will be
reflected in their demand for more affordable car options and basic mobility alternatives.
• Family Cruisers: This segment will organize their time around family leisure time, putting new
demands on the household’s mobility requirements.
• Silver Drivers: This older generation likes to consume, has a wider range of interests, and are active
in their leisure life. Their mobility requirements will gravitate towards vehicles that meet their comfort
requirements rather than those packaged as respectable senior citizens’ sedans.
• High-Frequency Commuters: Constantly on the go, networking and meeting customers best
describes this segment. They will organize themselves in carpools more spontaneously and at shorter
notice and develop a high affinity towards car-sharing and short-term rental car offers.
• Global Jet Setters: Jetting between major cities of the world, as often as several times a week,
requires that this segment has mobility options while travelling. They will choose transport that fulfills
the functions of a personal workstation, privacy, and familiarity.
• Sensation Seekers: For this segment of consumers, having “fun while driving” will be an important
element of their lifestyle – and they are willing to pay for it with mobility options that offer a fun
experience and multimedia connectivity.
• Low-End Users: In the future, a significant segment of consumers will no longer be able to afford
individual mobility to the extent that they now do. Rising fuel prices and increasing financial burdens
are making mobility more expensive, driving their demand for efficient and inexpensive mobility
options.
16
https://www.adlittle.com/sites/default/files/viewpoints/ADL_Future_of_Mobility_2020.pdf
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Understanding consumer’s perspectives to changing landscape of Mobility
According to a 2018 study conducted by the management consulting firm Arthur D Little – which surveyed
8000 drivers across 13 countries, the following insights were discovered17.
I. Owning cars is still important – status is least according to customers; new mobility solutions need to match
comfort and independence.
▪ Independence, comfort and convenience remain unchanged reasons to own a car – among other
strong preferences.
▪ Significant and fast change is only feasible through strong regulation.
▪ Timing of regulation is a key driver of change.
II. Perception of “owning a car is important to me” has not changed – the younger the people, the more
important it is.
III. Car sharing remains a real option only for one-quarter of customers (but real usage is much lower, of
course – at niche level).
▪ Younger generations are, in general, more open to commercial car sharing.
▪ A high number of (younger) people, especially in large cities, are registered – often with multiple
services.
▪ Usage profiles do not correspond to the number of registered users.
IV. Customer demand defines clear business-model levers

▪ Price is still the most important growth driver
▪ Customers request more flexible car-sharing programs
V. The idea of peer-to-peer car sharing does not have many more strong supporters than it did some years
ago.
▪ China is the clear leader in overall supporters— followed by Italy.
17 https://www.adlittle.com/sites/default/files/viewpoints/adl_future_of_automotive_mobility_global_study_executive_summary-min_0.pdf
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▪ The majority of markets – including the US, reach almost one-third of supporters
VI. The trust in autonomous vehicles has not increased in the last few years.
▪ Again, China takes the lead in acceptance rates.
▪ Surprisingly, it is closely followed by Turkey and Italy.
▪ Acceptance rates among all developed countries have fallen, while understanding of the technology has
raised concerns.
VII. In the meantime, slightly higher prices for alternative drivetrains are accepted by the majority.
▪ At least 50% of consumers are willing to pay more for both hybrid and electric cars
▪ Higher prices for hybrid cars are still more accepted due to the same driving comfort as for cars with
conventional drivetrains
VIII. People do think considerably “greener” – still, price and cost are dominating drivers for them to purchase
electric vehicles.
IX. Public discussion has reached mobility customer preferences – security of private data is starting to
become an even hotter topic.
▪ People in Germany and the US have become significantly more concerned with the security of their
private data
▪ The opposite can be seen in China, where people seem to be less concerned – probably through day-
to-day experience.
X. The change in customer buying behaviors regarding the drivetrain is going to be dramatic
▪ The massive dominance of pure combustion engines, and gasoline engines in particular, is likely to
decrease significantly
▪ A surge in sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and hybrid solutions is expected
▪ Hybrids are expected to be key for the next years
▪ Only a small number of people expect to change to natural gas drivetrains or other alternatives (such
as fuel cells)
Based on a survey18 carried out by Deloitte in 2019 to understand the current changes in consumer interest
and expectations for future mobility, the following conclusions were reached.
#1. Interest in EVs continues to grow around the world: Even in the United States, where significant
barriers to EV adoption remain, the number of people who most want an alternative engine in their next
vehicle is growing rapidly.
#2. Interest in AVs stalled in most markets: Consumers in most global markets remain equally split
regarding the perceived safety of autonomous vehicles, but China and India are moving in the wrong direction.
#3: Consumers remain resistant to multimodal mobility: Consumers in Japan, Germany, and the
United States are among the hardest to shift, as fewer than one in five people use multiple modes of
transportation in a single trip
18
2020 Deloitte Global Automotive Consumer Study
30
#4. Concerns about privacy and data security remain: Whom consumers trust the most to manage the
data being collected and shared by their vehicle remains firmly up in the air, as original equipment
manufacturers (OEMs) are not necessarily the logical choice.
Future trends – What’s going on?
#1. Mobility
▪ Globally growing mobility requirement
▪ Customers have less means available for mobility or shifted priorities in budgets
▪ Ongoing demand for individualised mobility solutions
#2. Car Ownership

▪ Growing demand for flexible ownership models to reduce investment costs, fixed costs and running
costs
▪ Decreasing significance of the car as a status symbol. Use increasingly more important than ownership
#3. Product
▪ High customer focus on aspects such as Downsizing, Individualizability, Purchase and running costs,
Product innovation or “Environmental correctness”
#4. Services
▪ Demand for comprehensive service and support offerings for the vehicle and beyond
▪ Increasing demand for services that appropriately bundle mobility and related areas such as media
integration, connectivity, etc.
INSIGHTS – SNAPSHOTS OF CONSUMER INTERESTS, PREFERENCES, & BEHAVIORS

TOWARDS FUTURE MOBILITY.
1. The desire to own vehicles – also from the status perspective – has not changed much, especially for younger
consumers.
2. Assumptions for market volume projections remain stable – the vehicle market will continue to grow
3. Despite that many people are registered for car sharing, consumers still consider it (only) an additional mobility
option – with strong regional differences.
4. Support for P2P car sharing has declined.
5. Events of the last years have led to a much more critical customer perspective of autonomous driving
6. Securing private data from customers is becoming a showstopper for connected-car services and new mobility
business models
7. People are starting to think greener – support for electric vehicles is picking up
8. A dramatic change can be projected for drivetrain selections – from gasoline and diesel towards hybrid and
battery electric drivetrains – OEMs’ volume planning will be affected
31
6. CONCLUSIONS
Mobility is central to human wellbeing: It enables access to opportunities and fosters prosperity, quality of life,
and social connections. Today, billions of people around the world enjoy a level of personal mobility that
would have been unimaginable just a few generations ago. But the technologies and infrastructure that have
evolved over the last one hundred years to deliver personal mobility fall short of satisfying the demands of the
21st century. In many countries, access to transportation remains highly unequal, reflecting and perpetuating
larger socio-economic disparities. At the same time, traffic congestion plagues millions of commuters and
impacts the economies of large metropolitan areas around the world. Private motor vehicles, despite
significant advances in performance, comfort, and safety, remain a major source of negative externalities. They
cause millions of road injuries and fatalities each year and contribute to both unhealthy levels of local air
pollution and rising emissions of planet-warming greenhouse gases.
As the world’s population continues to grow and incomes rise, vehicle ownership is within reach of hundreds
of millions more consumers. It is also clear that existing mobility systems that rely on the petroleum-powered,
privately owned vehicle will need to change. What remains highly uncertain, albeit profoundly consequential, is
how future mobility might evolve—and what those changes in mobility could mean in terms of addressing
related public policy imperatives, from reducing congestion to mitigating global climate change. This study
focused on light-duty vehicles, which are both the main mode of personal transportation in most of the world
and the largest source of mobility-related externalities.
This report has explored some of the key drivers that are likely to influence personal transportation systems
and individual travel behavior over the next three decades. Rather than predict the most likely
future, or attempt to present a vision for the “best” future, we adopted a “what if” approach. That is, our
analyses are designed to identify the main drivers of change (i.e., technology, economics, policy, and consumer
behavior/preference), assess their potential impacts, and develop insights about
how they interact with one another. Our analysis produced several key findings. Through modeling the effect
of climate change policies, we find that reducing the carbon intensity of the light-duty vehicle fleet—through
fuel efficiency improvements and increased uptake of alternative fuel vehicles—contributes to mitigation goals,
but is only part of the solution to achieving global emission reduction targets.
What should you do next?
Depending on your perspective, the changes discussed here—shared mobility, autonomous vehicles, and
seamless intermodal transit—may seem thrilling or daunting. Any actor involved in the movement of people
and goods should begin identifying now where it wants to play in the new mobility ecosystem.
1. Evaluate the potential impact: Each player should analyze how and by how much the future of
mobility will impact their current business or operations. The magnitude of the transformation is likely
sizeable, the velocity of change could be rapid, and businesses and governments will likely have to
operate in a multistate, multimodal future that demands flexibility and adaptability. While the change
may seem distant, the time frame for adoption could shrink surprisingly quickly. An analysis would give
management a more empirical understanding and help build consensus around the degree of urgency
required to make the transition to the new mobility ecosystem.
2. Determine which role or roles you aspire to in the new mobility ecosystem: While change is
imminent, new opportunities will likely continue to emerge and expand. Amid the ecosystem’s
complexity, we anticipate the emergence of distinct value creation roles. These roles are closely linked
and would require collaboration to serve the customer. The car-centric extended automotive industry
32
has become a customer-centric mobility ecosystem, where the focus is on the experience of moving
from point A to point B—rather than the physical vehicle itself.
3. Assess how your current capabilities match those required for future success: Not all
opportunities are created equal. Stakeholders should carefully examine their own capabilities against
those required to succeed in their chosen role. This paper only scratches the surface of the
opportunity spaces. In reality, there are a host of players and capabilities that could support and enable
the ecosystem.
4. Evaluate competitive intensity and be clear-eyed about how you stack up against
incumbents in that space: You will not be alone in seeking to capture value in the new mobility
ecosystem. Many players—both incumbents and disrupters—are already making moves to play.
5. Develop a road map to build the needed capabilities: Enterprise transformation rarely happens
overnight and takes time and planning. Understanding the broader ecosystem and the required
capabilities can help companies and governments better lay out their path to success, whether that be
through acquisition, partnership, or internal development. Part of this journey will likely require making
hard decisions around your winning aspiration
33

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THE FUTURE OF

Why does the future of mobility even matter?

The result of the study shows the following insights:

3 Report: Siemens, Bureau of Transport Statistics, Arthur D. Little

New mobility services have been characterized as

VI. Shared Autonomous Vehicles

Market Characteristics of New Mobility Services

SERVICE MARKETS EXAMPLES

3.2 Landscape and growth of New Mobility Industry

I. Ridehailing is expanding rapidly but faces regulatory headwinds

III. Carsharing is growing steadily in the United

3.3 Startup Investments in the Industry

Source: McKinsey & Company

Key Industry highlights between 2018-2019

Total number of patents since 20105, thousand

Source: CapitalIQ; Pitchbook; Cipher; McKinsey analysis

New mobility providers valuation has risen tremendously (Valuation, $ billion)

Source: McKinsey & Company

3.4 Regulation will drive the transformation of the automotive industry

Five regulatory principles to tackle emerging technologies

• Autonomous vehicles: To date, developers of AV technology have enjoyed a largely permissive

INSIGHT – SNAPSHOT OF THE MOBILITY INDUSTRY

3.5 Major Trends Defining the Industry

1. Rising prices for privately owned vehicles:

2. More engaged citizenry are demanding inclusive mobility.

Source: McKinsey & Company

3) Increased private-public partnership around mobility.

Future Trends – What’s next?

• Vehicle control (driver versus autonomous)

Source: Graphic: Deloitte University Press | DUPress.com

Extent to which autonomous vehicle technologies become pervasive:

Extent to which vehicles are personally owned or shared:

Future state 1: Incremental change

Future state 3: The driverless revolution

Future state 4: A new age of accessible autonomy

Advanced communications technologies coordinate the customer’s point-to-point mobility experience:

4. TECHNOLOGICAL SCENARIO & TRENDS

#1. EMBEDDED AUTONOMOUS TECHNOLOGY

Current trends – What’s going on?

#2. CAR AND DRIVER DATA

Current trends – What’s going on?

Number of startups by type of connected services provided. Source: Dealroom.

#3. FUTURE CARS POWER

Current trends – What’s going on?

Current trends – What’s going on?

INSIGHTS – TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS DRIVING FUTURE MOBILITY

1. Embedded Autonomous Technology: As autonomous-driving technology advances, new transportation use

5. CONSUMER SCENARIO & TRENDS

For this section, we will cover the following topics:

Understanding Consumers’ preferences – The Mobility Consumers of the Future

Understanding consumer’s perspectives to changing landscape of Mobility

IV. Customer demand defines clear business-model levers

Current trends – What’s going on?

Future trends – What’s going on?

#2. Car Ownership

INSIGHTS – SNAPSHOTS OF CONSUMER INTERESTS, PREFERENCES, & BEHAVIORS

What should you do next?

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