IHS Markit Hydroge
IHS Markit Hydroge
IHS Markit Hydroge
Presentation
Hydrogen and its role in the European energy system of the future
10 March 2021
• Policy frameworks are being put in place to drive large-scale consumption of low-carbon gas
supported by a global hydrogen market
• Transport (logistics and HGV) and industry (steel and chemicals) are expected to be early
adopters of low-carbon hydrogen
• Hydrogen for energy use is expected to be a mix of domestically produced hydrogen from
coal/natural gas (grey/blue hydrogen), hydrogen from electrolysis (green hydrogen) and imports
• Industry is responding to the policy push: More, larger projects are being announced
The role of electricity will grow, but low-carbon gas will become an important
part of all sectors of a net-zero carbon economy
•Roles
Hydrogen
for gasfrom renewable
in a very power
low carbon can
energy serve multiple roles:rrrrrr
system
Residential and
Industry Power generation Transport
Commercial
Daily demand variation Gas Elec Align supply and demand
High
Direct
biomass
Peak heat ST
High temperature heat Seasonal storage Heavy
GT duty
HP
Logistics
Low-pressure gas
Low Generation Demand
Electricity
Long-duration / Long
Peak heat High temperature heat
seasonal storage distance
Note: ST = solar thermal; GT = geothermal; HP = heat pump.
Source: IHS Markit © 2021 IHS Markit
Re-Conversion
Steam reforming / or H2
Gasification
H2
Ammonia / Methanol / LOHC*
Conversion or direct use
H2O
e- H22 ++½OO2 2
H LNG
Water
electrolysis Synthetic CH4
+CO2 /CO
(methanation) End use
H2O
H2
Local water HH22++½OO22
HVDC
electrolysis
H2 production pathways
Methane pyrolysis
Pyrolysis with solid carbon sequestration
Note: AEC = alkaline electrolytic cell; SOEC = solid oxide electrolytic cell. PEM = Proton exchange Color code
membrane. POx: partial oxidation. *Low carbon if using low carbon power supply.
Source: IHS Markit Low-carbon H2 Unabated H2 © 2021 IHS Markit
x8
energy content basis
Hydrogen
from
renewable
x4-5
electricity
x?
x2
Hydrogen from
natural gas 2015 2020 2030
Natural gas with CCS
Operating projects are small,
Large-scale production
but scale is growing rapidly
Hydrogen cost driven by Main cost driver today—electrolysis
natural gas price Future cost driver—cost of electricity
0
No CCS 92% CCS 92% CCS Grid Dedicated offshore wind Dedicated onshore wind Dedicated solar PV —
100,000 Nm3/h 100,000 Nm3/h 2,000 Nm3/h — Germany — France Spain
Plant size H2 output H2 output H2 output
Large SMR Large ATR Small ATR
Natural gas reforming Hydrogen from electrolysis
2,000 Nm3/h
H2 output
If storage for firming hydrogen supply is not needed, the cost of hydrogen
can fall below 2 Euros/kg between 2025 and 2030 in Europe
Cost of intermittent hydrogen (without storage) at the boundary of the production facility in Europe
Hydrogen from renewables vs ATR with CCS
100 MW
Solar PV – Spain Typical large scale
1.8 500 MW 2 MW
2025
ATR-CCS-to-H 2
Onshore wind – France 500 MW 2 MW
Years and electricity input
of 100,000 Nm3/h
capacity:
Offshore wind – Germany Range 1.4-2.4 €/kg 500 MW 2 MW
Solar PV – Spain
technology
1.5
2030
Solar PV – Spain
2040
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
Euros/kg
Source: IHS Markit 500 MW 2MW : Input capacity range of installed electrolyzer © 2021 IHS Markit
70 800
Capacity, megawatts electric (GWe)
600
50
500
40
input
400
30 56.7
300
20
200
10 18.0 100
0.1 0.7
12.0 9
0 0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2016 2020
Source: IHS Markit © 2021 IHS Markit Source: IHS Markit © 2021 IHS Markit
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Operating Under construction Advanced planning Early planning Announced
Germany Rest of Europe United States/Canada Asia Australia Rest of the world
Notes: *Project status definition: Advanced planning = projects that have completed the feasibility study and are moving forward with front-end engineering and design, applying for permits, issuing
purchase orders for equipment, or taking a final investment decision; Early planning = projects with a feasibility study in progress; Announced = earliest-stage projects—projects announced with very
limited information on the partners and stakeholders, the capacity of hydrogen production, the online date, etc. In many of t hese cases, details of the electrolysis capacity are not provided and are
estimated from the renewable power capacity announced.
Hydrogen will be a major part of the future energy mix—20-50% of energy use in a net-zero carbon
scenario
Hydrogen is versatile through the full value chain—from production to end use. All parts of the
energy system would be impacted by large-scale hydrogen development
The market model emerging for hydrogen is similar to natural gas—moving in time to an international
traded market with large-scale, regulated infrastructure
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