B.C. COVID-19 Modelling Presentation From April 15, 2021
B.C. COVID-19 Modelling Presentation From April 15, 2021
B.C. COVID-19 Modelling Presentation From April 15, 2021
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Geographic
Distribution of
COVID-19 by Local
Health Area of
Case Residence
Jan 2020-Mar 2021
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Geographic
Distribution of
COVID-19 by Local
Health Area of
Case Residence in
past 7 days
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Average daily rate of new cases per 100,000 population by
local health area April 7 to 13, 2021
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Total case counts by local health area April 7 to 13, 2021
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Daily cases, hospitalizations and deaths by surveillance date
January 2020 to April 13, 2021
1,521 deaths
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Epidemic curve, COVID-19 cases in B.C. by surveillance date
January 2020 – April 13, 2021
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Likely source of COVID-19 infection by episode date, BC
January 15, 2020 – April 3, 2021
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Daily case count by age January 2020 to April 13, 2021
(7-day moving average)*
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Daily case rate, testing rate and percent positivity by Health
Authority March 1, 2020 to April 13, 2021
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Vaccination progress in BC by age group up to 13 April 2021
Vaccinations
Hospitalizations
Deaths
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New daily COVID-19 hospitalization counts and
rates per 100,000 (August 2020 to April 2021)
Counts
Rates
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Age distribution of COVID-19 related hospitalizations and
deaths, Jan – Apr 2021
Data
incomplete
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Percentage distribution of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations,
ICU admissions and deaths by age, British Columbia,
January 15, 2020 – April 3, 2021
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Variant of Concern (VOC) Detection Approaches in BC
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Estimated prevalence of presumptive VOCs and distribution of
confirmed viral lineages in BC, Jan – April 2021
P.1 B.1.1.7
49% 50%
B.1.351
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Approximate distribution of presumptive VOC prevalence by
Health Authority – estimates
P.1 B.1.1.7 P.1 B.1.1.7 P.1 B.1.1.7
Estimates of relative distribution of B.1.1.7 and P.1 are available for epi week 13, for BC, FH, and VCH only.
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School Exposures
April 15, 2021
The start of school sessions do not appear to result in
significant increases in community transmission of COVID-19
at the provincial level in BC
1400
New daily cases (7-day moving
1000
0.8
800
average)
0.6
600
0.4
400
0.2
200
0 0
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COVID-19 Virus Has a Relatively Low Infection Rate
Among School-Aged Children (5 to 18 Years) in BC,
From September 7, 2020 to April 9, 2021
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VCH and FHA School Transmission Studies
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Findings from the VCH Study (Sept 10 – Dec 18, 2020)
During this time period there were a total of 8,746 cases reported in the VCH Region
*Approximate estimate based on those attending schools in person during this time period
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Student and Staff
Cases make up a small
proportion of overall
cases in VCH
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Findings from the Fraser Health Study (Jan 1 – Mar 7, 2021)
During this time period there were a total of 16,053 cases reported in the Fraser Region
*Approximate estimate based Ministry of Education data
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Student and Staff Cases School closure
(Winter break)
make up a small
proportion of overall
cases in Fraser Health
Total
Cases
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Key Messages
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Dynamic compartmental modeling: recent trends
Our model shows that Rt is above 1 in most regions of BC.
BC (1.37 → 1.26) Fraser (1.32 ≈ 1.31) Vancouver (1.49 → 1.13)
Coastal
Solid black line: median Rt , data up to Mar 11, 2021; Grey band: 5%-95% credible interval; Purple bars: all reported cases.
Due to lag from symptom onset to reporting, most recent cases are not shown. Recent trend shown comparing 7 day average R t from (last week → this week).
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Dynamic compartmental modeling: recent trends
Rate of infectious
contact
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Dynamic compartmental modeling: scenarios
Fraser Vancouver
Coastal Rate of infectious
contact
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BC COVID-19 Population
Health Survey – Round 2
Your Story, Our Future
http://www.bccdc.ca/covid19survey
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