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B.C. COVID-19 Modelling Presentation From April 15, 2021

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COVID-19:

April Data Update


April 15, 2021
Geographic
Distribution of
COVID-19 by
Health Service
Delivery Area of
Case Residence

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Geographic
Distribution of
COVID-19 by Local
Health Area of
Case Residence
Jan 2020-Mar 2021

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Geographic
Distribution of
COVID-19 by Local
Health Area of
Case Residence in
past 7 days

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Average daily rate of new cases per 100,000 population by
local health area April 7 to 13, 2021

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Total case counts by local health area April 7 to 13, 2021

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Daily cases, hospitalizations and deaths by surveillance date
January 2020 to April 13, 2021

114,870 total cases

5,755 ever hospitalized

1,521 deaths

103,360 removed from isolation

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Epidemic curve, COVID-19 cases in B.C. by surveillance date
January 2020 – April 13, 2021

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Likely source of COVID-19 infection by episode date, BC
January 15, 2020 – April 3, 2021

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Daily case count by age January 2020 to April 13, 2021
(7-day moving average)*

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Daily case rate, testing rate and percent positivity by Health
Authority March 1, 2020 to April 13, 2021

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Vaccination progress in BC by age group up to 13 April 2021

Vaccinations

Hospitalizations
Deaths

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New daily COVID-19 hospitalization counts and
rates per 100,000 (August 2020 to April 2021)
Counts

Rates

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Age distribution of COVID-19 related hospitalizations and
deaths, Jan – Apr 2021

Data
incomplete

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Percentage distribution of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations,
ICU admissions and deaths by age, British Columbia,
January 15, 2020 – April 3, 2021

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Variant of Concern (VOC) Detection Approaches in BC

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Estimated prevalence of presumptive VOCs and distribution of
confirmed viral lineages in BC, Jan – April 2021

P.1 B.1.1.7

49% 50%

B.1.351

Epi week 13* *Latest available. Not all sequencing


(Mar 28 – Apr 3) results for epi week 14 available.

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Approximate distribution of presumptive VOC prevalence by
Health Authority – estimates
P.1 B.1.1.7 P.1 B.1.1.7 P.1 B.1.1.7

Estimates of relative distribution of B.1.1.7 and P.1 are available for epi week 13, for BC, FH, and VCH only.

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School Exposures
April 15, 2021
The start of school sessions do not appear to result in
significant increases in community transmission of COVID-19
at the provincial level in BC
1400
New daily cases (7-day moving

Sep 10, 2020


1200 1

1000
0.8

800
average)

0.6
600
0.4
400

0.2
200

0 0

Winter/spring break All ages 5-18 years Start of school

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COVID-19 Virus Has a Relatively Low Infection Rate
Among School-Aged Children (5 to 18 Years) in BC,
From September 7, 2020 to April 9, 2021

Age Groups Number of Cases Percent of Cases Percent of Population

0 – 4 Years 2113 2.07 4.41

5 – 12 Years 5468 5.37 7.65

13 – 18 Years 6350 6.23 6.16

19+ Years 87941 86.32 81.79

• No deaths among school age children due to COVID-19


• Less than 1 in 200 school aged children with COVID-19 hospitalized, which is
considerably lower than adults 19+ years (1 in 20)

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VCH and FHA School Transmission Studies

• In-depth reviews of COVID-19 cases among students and staff in


K-12 schools within the Health Authorities help us understand what
transmission looks like in the school setting.
• Identified cases where transmission likely occurred in school
through review of contact tracing records.

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Findings from the VCH Study (Sept 10 – Dec 18, 2020)

124,000 Staff and


Students and
teachers in VCH When transmission did occur within a school setting,
Region*
a case would typically lead to 1 or 2 other
cases in the school
699
(< 1% of COVID-19 Cases
students and among students
staff) (77%) and staff (23%)

55 Cases likely acquired in school


(8% of student
and staff cases)

During this time period there were a total of 8,746 cases reported in the VCH Region
*Approximate estimate based on those attending schools in person during this time period

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Student and Staff
Cases make up a small
proportion of overall
cases in VCH

School closures during holidays do not


appear to lead to reductions in overall cases
among students and staff.

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Findings from the Fraser Health Study (Jan 1 – Mar 7, 2021)

315,000 Staff and • When transmission did occur within a school


Students in Fraser
Region* setting, a case would typically lead to 1
other case in the school
2049 COVID-19 Cases
among students
• No transmission was identified in
(< 1% of students
and staff) (83%) and staff (17%)
approximately 85% of schools in the Fraser
region during this time period
267 Cases likely acquired in school
(13% of student
and staff cases)

During this time period there were a total of 16,053 cases reported in the Fraser Region
*Approximate estimate based Ministry of Education data

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Student and Staff Cases School closure
(Winter break)
make up a small
proportion of overall
cases in Fraser Health
Total
Cases

Student and staff cases follow


community trends – they are a
reflection of community
COVID-19 activity.
Student & Staff
Cases

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Key Messages

• COVID-19 cases in schools reflect community transmission

• Most cases of COVID-19 among students and staff are acquired


outside of school in their household or community

• When transmission occurs within the school, it is usually limited to


one or two additional cases

• School transmission does not appear to be a major driver of


community transmission

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Dynamic compartmental modeling: recent trends
Our model shows that Rt is above 1 in most regions of BC.
BC (1.37 → 1.26) Fraser (1.32 ≈ 1.31) Vancouver (1.49 → 1.13)
Coastal

Interior (1.62 ≈ 1.60) Vancouver (1.51 → 1.28) Northern (1.02 → 0.93)


Island

Solid black line: median Rt , data up to Mar 11, 2021; Grey band: 5%-95% credible interval; Purple bars: all reported cases.
Due to lag from symptom onset to reporting, most recent cases are not shown. Recent trend shown comparing 7 day average R t from (last week → this week).

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Dynamic compartmental modeling: recent trends

Rate of infectious
contact

800 cases per day

400 cases per day

200 cases per day


100 cases per day

Case Report Date


Solid blue line: median model fit; shaded bands: 50% and 90% credible intervals; Open circles: all reported cases, excluding reportable outbreaks, March 1 – April 11, 2021.

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Dynamic compartmental modeling: scenarios
Fraser Vancouver
Coastal Rate of infectious
contact

Interior Vancouver Northern


Island

Case Report Date


Solid blue line: median model fit; shaded bands: 50% and 90% credible intervals; Open circles: all reported cases, excluding reportable outbreaks, March 1 – April 11, 2021.

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BC COVID-19 Population
Health Survey – Round 2
Your Story, Our Future

We encourage all British Columbians to share


their experience and how they have been
affected by the COVID-19 pandemic one year
on, to help inform recovery and re-opening:

http://www.bccdc.ca/covid19survey

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