Distribution of Sales Value Prob Price Low High Mean Distribution of Variable Cost Per Unit Value Prob
Distribution of Sales Value Prob Price Low High Mean Distribution of Variable Cost Per Unit Value Prob
Distribution of Sales Value Prob Price Low High Mean Distribution of Variable Cost Per Unit Value Prob
b. Find a 95% interval for the company’s annual profit, that is, an
interval such that about 95% of the actual profits are inside it.
c. Now suppose that annual unit sales, variable cost, and unit price are
equal to their respective expected values—that is, there is no
uncertainty. Determine the company’s annual profit for this scenario.
d. Can you conclude from the results in parts a and c that the expected
profit from a simulation is equal to the profit from the scenario where
each input assumes its expected value? Explain
Scheduling telephone operators
33. W. L. Brown, a dire
Distribution of number of calls per hour must determine how
Calls Probability schedule during each
estimates that the num
80 0.10 hour of a typical eight
120 0.40 probability distributio
160 0.30 operator can handle 1
200 0.15 company $20 per hou
is assumed to cost the
300 0.05 Considering the optio
16 operators, use simu
Calls per hour per operator operators that minimi
Cost per hour per operator costs plus lost profits)
Cost per lost call
Values to try
Number of operators
Simulation
Number of calls Lost calls Lost call cost Operator cost Total cost
33. W. L. Brown, a direct marketer of women’s clothing,
must determine how many telephone operators to
schedule during each part of the day. W. L. Brown
estimates that the number of phone calls received each
hour of a typical eight-hour shift can be described by the
probability distribution in the file P10_33.xlsx. Each
operator can handle 15 calls per hour and costs the
company $20 per hour. Each phone call that is not handled
is assumed to cost the company $6 in lost profit.
Considering the options of employing 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, or
16 operators, use simulation to determine the number of
operators that minimizes the expected hourly cost (labor
costs plus lost profits).