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    Institute of Rural Management Anand

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    Amit Kr Godara
    The document contains an exam paper for Operations Management. It includes four sections with multiple choice and numerical questions related to topics like demand forecasting techniques, productivity measurement, vendor selection, and product vs process focus. Section 2 contains calculations comparing the accuracy of 3-quarter moving average, 5-quarter moving average and weighted 3-quarter moving average forecasting models based on historical demand data. The weighted 3-quarter model had the lowest cumulative error of 28.05.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Institute of Rural Management Anand

    Uploaded by

    Amit Kr Godara
    33 views6 pages
    The document contains an exam paper for Operations Management. It includes four sections with multiple choice and numerical questions related to topics like demand forecasting techniques, productivity measurement, vendor selection, and product vs process focus. Section 2 contains calculations comparing the accuracy of 3-quarter moving average, 5-quarter moving average and weighted 3-quarter moving average forecasting models based on historical demand data. The weighted 3-quarter model had the lowest cumulative error of 28.05.

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    P41003_OM

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    The document contains an exam paper for Operations Management. It includes four sections with multiple choice and numerical questions related to topics like demand forecasting techniques, productivity measurement, vendor selection, and product vs process focus. Section 2 contains calculations comparing the accuracy of 3-quarter moving average, 5-quarter moving average and weighted 3-quarter moving average forecasting models based on historical demand data. The weighted 3-quarter model had the lowest cumulative error of 28.05.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    33 views6 pages

    Institute of Rural Management Anand

    Uploaded by

    Amit Kr Godara
    The document contains an exam paper for Operations Management. It includes four sections with multiple choice and numerical questions related to topics like demand forecasting techniques, productivity measurement, vendor selection, and product vs process focus. Section 2 contains calculations comparing the accuracy of 3-quarter moving average, 5-quarter moving average and weighted 3-quarter moving average forecasting models based on historical demand data. The weighted 3-quarter model had the lowest cumulative error of 28.05.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 6

    Institute of Rural Management Anand

    PGDM-RM41 – Term II– Mid Term Examination


    < Operations Management>
    <06th December 2020>
    <Amit kr Godara, P41003>
    Section 2
    4. A Moving average = Sigma (demand in previous n periods)/ n

    3 quarter Moving average


    Error
    year Quarter Demand for fertilizer forecast
    1 1 105
    2 150
    3 93
    4 121 116.00 5.00
    2 5 140 121.33 18.67
    6 170 118.00 52.00
    7 105 143.67 -38.67
    8 150 138.33 11.67
    3 9 150 141.67 8.33
    10 170 135.00 35.00
    11 110 156.67 -46.67
    12 130 143.33 -13.33
    4 13 136.67
    Error 25.48

    5 quarter Moving average


    Error
    year Quarter Demand for fertilizer forcast
    1 1 105
    2 150
    3 93
    4 121
    2 5 140
    6 170 121.8 -48.20
    7 105 134.8 29.80
    8 150 125.8 -24.20
    3 9 150 137.2 -12.80
    10 170 143 -27.00
    11 110 149 39.00
    12 130 137 7.00
    4 13 142
    26.86

    Institute of Rural Management Anand


    PGDM-RM41 – Term II– Mid Term Examination
    < Operations Management>
    <06th December 2020>
    <Amit kr Godara, P41003>

    C Weighted moving average


    = sigma ( weight of period n )( Demand for period n))/Sigma Weights

    year Quarter Demand for fertilizer Weighted 3 Quarter average Error


    1 1 105
    2 150
    3 93
    4 121 113.85 7.15
    2 5 140 116.69 23.31
    6 170 125.74 44.26
    7 105 151.77 -46.77
    8 150 132.4 17.6
    3 9 150 138.55 11.45
    10 170 142.35 27.65
    11 110 160 -50
    12 130 136.6 -6.6
    4 13 130.2
    26.08778

    D. Cumulative errors are:


    3-quarter moving average, E = 32.0
    5-quarter moving average, E = 36.4
    Weighted 3-quarter moving average, E = 28.05
    The weighted 3-quarter forecast appears to be the most accurate.
    Institute of Rural Management Anand
    PGDM-RM41 – Term II– Mid Term Examination
    < Operations Management>
    <06th December 2020>
    <Amit kr Godara, P41003>

    Section 2
    1
    Productivity measures the of process improvement and represents output relative to input
    Productivity = (Units produced) / Input used
    Labour Productivity = Units produced / Labor-hours used
    = 1,00,000/ 10,000
    = 10 units per labour hour
    Machine Productivity = Units produced / machine-hours used
    = 1,00,000/ 5000
    = 20 units per machine hour
    Multifactor Productivity is also known as total factor productivity
    Multifactor Productivity = Output/ Total dollar spent on Labor + Material + Energy + Capital +
    Miscellaneous
    = 1,00,000/ 10000*15 + 5000*10 + 3500 + 15000
    = 100000/250000
    = 0.4 units per dollar

    2. Answer 2
    i. We will select vendor on the basis of system reliability; we will select the system vendor
    which has higher reliability.
    vendor 1
    reliability = 0.94 * (0.90 + (1-0.90)*0.86) *0.93
    = 0.86
    86%
    vendor 2
    reliability = 0.85 * (0.93 + (1-0.93)*0.88) * 0.95
    = 0.42
    42%
    Institute of Rural Management Anand
    PGDM-RM41 – Term II– Mid Term Examination
    < Operations Management>
    <06th December 2020>
    <Amit kr Godara, P41003>

    For Vendor 3
    reliability = 0.92 * ( 0.95 +(1-0.95)*0.90) *0.90
    =0.82
    82%
    Therefore vendor 1 would be select as it has highest reliability

    ii) For vendor 1


    reliability = 0.94*0.86*0.90*0.93
    =0.67
    So, 67%
    For vendor 2
    S reliability = 0.85*0.88*0.93*0.95
    =0.66
    66%
    For vendor 3
    System reliability = 0.92*0.90*0.95*0.90
    =0.70
    70%
    Therefore vendor 3 would be selected as it has highest reliability.

    Section 1
    2. Trend in demand forecasting is the general upward or downward movement in the data over
    period of time. It can be positive and negative. Changes in income, cultural views, income may
    result in movement for changes.

    Seasonality is the data pattern which repeats itself after a particular time period.
    Like in restaurant demand is high during weekend. Consumption of person is high during initial
    days of month.
    Institute of Rural Management Anand
    PGDM-RM41 – Term II– Mid Term Examination
    <Operations Management>
    <06th December 2020>
    <Amit kr Godara, P41003>

    Smoothing constant is obtained when the error in forecasting is the minimum. Generally
    Smoothing constant value taken ranges from 0.05 to 0.5. We take different values of Smoothing
    constant like 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4. We find the forecast demand on the basis of these alpha values
    and then we calculate the error. The alpha values which gives minimum error will be chosen for
    forecasting demand.

    Section 1
    5
    Product focus Process focus
    cost (fixed cost) Fixed costs are high Fixed costs are low
    nature of labour skills less Broadly skilled labour Broadly skilled labour
    type of products
    produced hospitital, blacksmith work, restaurant autos, motorcycles
    volume of product large quantity and large variety of Small and large variety of
    produced products products
    cost per unit of output low high

    Section 3

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