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STAT7055 Spring Session 2017 Topic 2 Tutorial Questions

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STAT7055 Spring Session 2017

Topic 2 Tutorial Questions


1. (Keller 10e Ex 6.91) In a four-cylinder engine there are four spark plugs. If any one of
them malfunctions, the car will idle roughly, and power will be lost. Suppose that for
a certain brand of spark plugs, the probability that a spark plug will function properly
after 5000 miles is 0.9. Assuming that the spark plugs operate independently, what is
the probability that the car will idle roughly after 5000 miles?

2. (Keller 10e Ex 6.89, 6.90) The effect of an antidepressant drug varies from person to
person. Suppose that the drug is effective on 80% of women and 65% of men. It is
known that 66% of the people who take the drug are women.
(a) What is the probability that the drug is effective?
(b) Suppose you are told that the drug is effective. What is the probability that the
drug taker is a man?

3. (Keller 10e Ex 6.94) In Canada, criminals are entitled to parole after serving only one-
third of their sentence. Virtually all prisoners, with several exceptions including mur-
derers, are released after serving two-thirds of their sentence. The government has
proposed a new law that would create a special category of inmates based on whether
they had committed crimes involving violence or drugs. Such criminals would be subject
to additional detention if the Correction Services judge them highly likely to re-offend.
Currently, 27% of prisoners who are released commit another crime within 2 years of
release. Among those who have re-offended, 41% would have been detained under the
new law, where 31% of those who have not re-offended would have been detained.
(a) What is the probability that a prisoner who would have been detained under the
new law does commit another crime within 2 years?
(b) What is the probability that a prisoner who would not have been detained under
the new law does commit another crime within 2 years?

4. Suppose I have four fair coins, two which have a head on both sides, one which has a
tail on both sides, and one which is normal (a head on one side and a tail on the other
side).
(a) I shut my eyes, pick one of the four coins at random, and flip it. What is the
probability that the lower face of the coin is a head?
(b) I open my eyes and see that the coin is showing heads (on the upper face). What
is the probability that the lower face is a head?

5. (Topic 2 Example 4) There are three buckets that weigh 1kg, 2kg and 3kg, respectively.
A bucket weighing ikg contains i white balls and 5 − i black balls, for i = 1, 2, 3. For
example, the bucket weighing 1kg contains 1 white ball and 4 black balls. Suppose a
bucket is chosen with probability proportional to its weight and two balls are randomly
selected (without replacement) from this bucket.

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STAT7055 Spring Session 2017 Topic 2 Tutorial

(a) Find the probability that both balls selected are white.
(b) If both balls selected are white, what is the probability that the bucket weighing
3kg was chosen?

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