Befa Unit 2 PDF
Befa Unit 2 PDF
Befa Unit 2 PDF
UNIT-2
DEMAND AND SUPPLY ANALYSIS
Demand in common parlance means the desire for an object. But in economics demand is
something more than this. According to Stonier and Hague, “Demand in economics means
demand backed up by enough money to pay for the goods demanded”. This means that the
demand becomes effective only it if is backed by the purchasing power in addition to this there
must be willingness to buy a commodity.
Thus demand in economics means the desire backed by the willingness to buy a commodity and
the purchasing power to pay. In the words of “Benham” “The demand for anything at a given
price is the amount of it which will be bought per unit of time at that Price”. (Thus demand is
always at a price for a definite quantity at a specified time.) Thus demand has three essentials –
price, quantity demanded and time. Without these, demand has to significance in economics.
LAW of Demand:
Law of demand shows the relation between price and quantity demanded of a commodity in the
market. In the words of Marshall, “the amount demand increases with a fall in price and
diminishes with a rise in price”.
A rise in the price of a commodity is followed by a reduction in demand and a fall in price is
followed by an increase in demand, if a condition of demand remains constant.
The law of demand may be explained with the help of the following demand schedule.
Demand Schedule.
When the price falls from Rs. 10 to 8 quantity demand increases from 1 to 2. In the same way as
price falls, quantity demand increases on the basis of the demand schedule we can draw the
demand curve.
Price
The demand curve DD shows the inverse relation between price and quantity demand of apple. It
is downward sloping.
Assumptions:
Some times the demand curve slopes upwards from left to right. In this case the demand curve
has a positive slope.
Price
When price increases from OP to Op1 quantity demanded also increases from to OQ1 and vice
versa. The reasons for exceptional demand curve are as follows.
1. Giffen paradox:
The Giffen good or inferior good is an exception to the law of demand. When the price of an
inferior good falls, the poor will buy less and vice versa. For example, when the price of maize
falls, the poor are willing to spend more on superior goods than on maize if the price of maize
increases, he has to increase the quantity of money spent on it. Otherwise he will have to face
starvation. Thus a fall in price is followed by reduction in quantity demanded and vice versa.
“Giffen” first explained this and therefore it is called as Giffen’s paradox.
‘Veblan’ has explained the exceptional demand curve through his doctrine of conspicuous
consumption. Rich people buy certain good because it gives social distinction or prestige for
example diamonds are bought by the richer class for the prestige it possess. It the price of
diamonds falls poor also will buy is hence they will not give prestige. Therefore, rich people may
stop buying this commodity.
3. I gnorance:
Sometimes, the quality of the commodity is Judge by its price. Consumers think that the product
is superior if the price is high. As such they buy more at a higher price.
1. Speculative effect:
If the price of the commodity is increasing the consumers will buy more of it because of the fear
that it increase still further, Thus, an increase in price may not be accomplished by a decrease in
demand.
5. F ear of shortage:
During the times of emergency of war People may expect shortage of a commodity. At that time,
they may buy more at a higher price to keep stocks for the future.
2. Necessaries:
In the case of necessaries like rice, vegetables etc. people buy more even at a higher price.
Factors Affecting Demand:
There are factors on which the demand for a commodity depends. These factors are economic,
social as well as political factors. The effect of all the factors on the amount demanded for the
commodity is called Demand Function.
These factors are as follows:
2. I ncome of theConsumer:
The second most important factor influencing demand is consumer income. In fact, we can
establish a relation between the consumer income and the demand at different levels of income,
price and other things remaining the same. The demand for a normal commodity goes up when
income rises and falls down when income falls. But in case of Giffen goods the relationship is
the opposite.
3. Prices of related goods:
The demand for a commodity is also affected by the changes in prices of the related goods also.
Related goods can be of two types:
(i). Substitutes which can replace each other in use; for example, tea and coffee are
substitutes. The change in price of a substitute has effect on a commodity’s demand
in the same direction in which price changes. The rise in price of coffee shall raise
the demand for tea;
(ii). Complementary foods are those which are jointly demanded, such as pen and ink. In
such cases complementary goods have opposite relationship between price of one
commodity and the amount demanded for the other. If the price of pens goes up,
their demand is less as a result of which the demand for ink is also less. The price
and demand go in opposite direction. The effect of changes in price of a commodity on
amounts demanded of related commodities is called Cross Demand.
4. Tastes of theConsumers:
The amount demanded also depends on consumer’s taste. Tastes include fashion, habit, customs,
etc. A consumer’s taste is also affected by advertisement. If the taste for a commodity goes up,
its amount demanded is more even at the same price. This is called increase in demand. The
opposite is called decrease in demand.
5. Wealth:
The amount demanded of commodity is also affected by the amount of wealth as well as its
distribution. The wealthier are the people; higher is the demand for normal commodities. If
wealth is more equally distributed, the demand for necessaries and comforts is more. On the
other hand, if some people are rich, while the majorities are poor, the demand for luxuries is
generally higher.
6. Population:
Increase in population increases demand for necessaries of life. The composition of population
also affects demand. Composition of population means the proportion of young and old and
children as well as the ratio of men to women. A change in composition of population has an
effect on the nature of demand for different commodities.
7. Government Policy:
Government policy affects the demands for commodities through taxation. Taxing a commodity
increases its price and the demand goes down. Similarly, financial help from the government
increases the demand for a commodity while lowering its price.
If consumers expect changes in price of commodity in future, they will change the demand at
present even when the present price remains the same. Similarly, if consumers expect their
incomes to rise in the near future they may increase the demand for a commodity just now.
The climate of an area and the weather prevailing there has a decisive effect on consumer’s
demand. In cold areas woolen cloth is demanded. During hot summer days, ice is very much in
demand. On a rainy day, ice cream is not so much demanded.
The level of demand for different commodities also depends upon the business conditions in the
country. If the country is passing through boom conditions, there will be a marked increase in
demand. On the other hand, the level of demand goes down during depression.
ELASTICITY OF DEMAND
Elasticity of demand explains the relationship between a change in price and consequent change
in amount demanded. “Marshall” introduced the concept of elasticity of demand. Elasticity of
demand shows the extent of change in quantity demanded to a change in price.
In the words of “Marshall”, “The elasticity of demand in a market is great or small according as
the amount demanded increases much or little for a given fall in the price and diminishes much
or little for a given rise in Price”
Elastic demand: A small change in price may lead to a great change in quantity demanded. In
this case, demand is elastic.
In-elastic demand: If a big change in price is followed by a small change in demanded then the
demand in “inelastic”.
Types of Elasticity of Demand:
There are three types of elasticity of demand:
Marshall was the first economist to define price elasticity of demand. Price elasticity of demand
measures changes in quantity demand to a change in Price. It is the ratio of percentage change in
quantity demanded to a percentage change in price.
In this case, even a large change in price fails to bring about a change in quantity demanded.
When price increases from ‘OP’ to ‘OP’, the quantity demanded remains the same. In other
words the response of demand to a change in Price is nil. In this case ‘E’=0.
Demand changes more than proportionately to a change in price. i.e. a small change in price
loads to a very big change in the quantity demanded. In this case
E > 1. This demand curve will be flatter.
When price falls from ‘OP’ to ‘OP’, amount demanded in crease from “OQ’ to “OQ1’ which is
larger than the change in price.
D. Relatively in-elastic demand.
Quantity demanded changes less than proportional to a change in price. A large change in price
leads to small change in amount demanded. Here E < 1. Demanded carve will be steeper.
When price falls from “OP’ to ‘OP1 amount demanded increases from OQ to OQ1, which is
smaller than the change in price.
E. Unit elasticity of demand:
The change in demand is exactly equal to the change in price. When both are equal E=1 and
elasticity if said to be unitary.
When price falls from ‘OP’ to ‘OP1’ quantity demanded increases from ‘OP’ to ‘OP1’, quantity
demanded increases from ‘OQ’ to ‘OQ1’. Thus a change in price has resulted in an equal change
in quantity demanded so price elasticity of demand is equal to unity.
2. Income elasticity of demand:
Income elasticity of demand shows the change in quantity demanded as a result of a change in
income. Income elasticity of demand may be slated in the form of a formula.
When income increases from OY to OY1, Quantity demanded also increases from OQ to OQ1.
d. Income elasticity greater than unity:
In this case, an increase in come brings about a more than proportionate increase in quantity
demanded. Symbolically it can be written as Ey > 1.
a. In case of substitutes, cross elasticity of demand is positive. Eg: Coffee and Tea
When the price of coffee increases, Quantity demanded of tea increases. Both are substitutes.
Price of Coffee
b. Incase of compliments, cross elasticity is negative. If increase in the price of one commodity
leads to a decrease in the quantity demanded of another and vice versa.
When price of car goes up from OP to OP!, the quantity demanded of petrol decreases from OQ
to OQ!. The cross-demanded curve has negative slope.
c. In case of unrelated commodities, cross elasticity of demanded is zero. A change in the price
of one commodity will not affect the quantity demanded of another.
Quantity demanded of commodity “b” remains unchanged due to a change in the price of ‘A’, as
both are unrelated goods.
Factors influencing the elasticity of demand
2. Availabili
Elasticity oftydemand
of substitutes:
depends on availability or non-availability of substitutes. In case of
commodities, which have substitutes, demand is elastic, but in case of commodities, which have
no substitutes, demand is in elastic.
3. Variety of uses:
If a commodity can be used for several purposes, than it will have elastic demand. i.e. electricity.
On the other hand, demanded is inelastic for commodities, which can be put to only one use.
4. Postponement of dem
and:
If the consumption of a commodity can be postponed, than it will have elastic demand. On the
contrary, if the demand for a commodity cannot be postpones, than demand is in elastic. The
demand for rice or medicine cannot be postponed, while the demand for Cycle or umbrella can
be postponed.
5. Amountofofdemand
Elasticity money spent:
depends on the amount of money spent on the commodity. If the consumer
spends a smaller for example a consumer spends a little amount on salt and matchboxes. Even
when price of salt or matchbox goes up, demanded will not fall. Therefore, demand is in case of
clothing a consumer spends a large proportion of his income and an increase in price will reduce
his demand for clothing. So the demand is elastic.
6. Time:
Elasticity of demand varies with time. Generally, demand is inelastic during short period and
elastic during the long period. Demand is inelastic during short period because the consumers do
not have enough time to know about the change is price. Even if they are aware of the price
change, they may not immediately switch over to a new commodity, as they are accustomed to
the old commodity.
7. Range of Prices:
Range of prices exerts an important influence on elasticity of demand. At a very high price,
demand is inelastic because a slight fall in price will not induce the people buy more. Similarly at
a low price also demand is inelastic. This is because at a low price all those who want to buy the
commodity would have bought it and a further fall in price will not increase the demand.
Therefore, elasticity is low at very him and very low prices.
Importance of Elasticity of Demand:
1. Pr ice fixation:
Each seller under monopoly and imperfect competition has to take into account elasticity of
demand while fixing the price for his product. If the demand for the product is inelastic, he can
fix a higher price.
2. Production:
Producers generally decide their production level on the basis of demand for the product. Hence
elasticity of demand helps the producers to take correct decision regarding the level of cut put to
be produced.
3. Distribution:
Elasticity of demand also helps in the determination of rewards for factors of production. For
example, if the demand for labour is inelastic, trade unions will be successful in raising wages. It
is applicable to other factors of production.
4. International Trade:
Elasticity of demand helps in finding out the terms of trade between two countries. Terms of
trade refers to the rate at which domestic commodity is exchanged for foreign commodities.
Terms of trade depends upon the elasticity of demand of the two countries for each other goods.
5. Public F inance:
Elasticity of demand helps the government in formulating tax policies. For example, for
imposing tax on a commodity, the Finance Minister has to take into account the elasticity of
demand.
6. Nationalization:
The concept of elasticity of demand enables the government to decide about nationalization of
industries.
Demand Forecasting
Introduction:
The information about the future is essential for both new firms and those planning to expand the
scale of their production. Demand forecasting refers to an estimate of future demand for the
product.
It is an ‘objective assessment of the future course of demand”. In recent times, forecasting plays
an important role in business decision-making. Demand forecasting has an important influence
on production planning. It is essential for a firm to produce the required quantities at the right
time.
It is essential to distinguish between forecasts of demand and forecasts of sales. Sales forecast is
important for estimating revenue cash requirements and expenses. Demand forecasts relate to
production, inventory control, timing, reliability of forecast etc. However, there is not much
difference between these two terms.
Based on the time span and planning requirements of business firms, demand forecasting can be
classified in to 1. Short-term demand forecasting and
2. Long – term demand forecasting.
Short-term demand forecasting is limited to short periods, usually for one year. It relates to
policies regarding sales, purchase, price and finances. It refers to existing production capacity of
the firm. Short-term forecasting is essential for formulating is essential for formulating a suitable
price policy. If the business people expect of rise in the prices of raw materials of shortages, they
may buy early. This price forecasting helps in sale policy formulation. Production may be
undertaken based on expected sales and not on actual sales. Further, demand forecasting assists
in financial forecasting also. Prior information about production and sales is essential to provide
additional funds on reasonable terms.
2. Long – term forecasting:
In long-term forecasting, the businessmen should now about the long-term demand for the
product. Planning of a new plant or expansion of an existing unit depends on long-term demand.
Similarly a multi product firm must take into account the demand for different items. When
forecast are mode covering long periods, the probability of error is high. It is vary difficult to
forecast the production, the trend of prices and the nature of competition. Hence quality and
competent forecasts are essential.
Prof. C. I. Savage and T.R. Small classify demand forecasting into time types. They are 1.
Economic forecasting, 2. Industry forecasting, 3. Firm level forecasting. Economics forecasting
is concerned with the economics, while industrial level forecasting is used for inter-industry
comparisons and is being supplied by trade association or chamber of commerce. Firm level
forecasting relates to individual firm.
Methods of forecasting:
Several methods are employed for forecasting demand. All these methods can be grouped under
survey method and statistical method. Survey methods and statistical methods are further
subdivided in to different categories.
1. Survey Method:
Under this method, information about the desires of the consumer and opinion of exports are
collected by interviewing them. Survey method can be divided into four type’s viz., Option
survey method; expert opinion; Delphi method and consumers interview methods.
This method is also known as sales-force composite method (or) collective opinion method.
Under this method, the company asks its salesman to submit estimate of future sales in their
respective territories. Since the forecasts of the salesmen are biased due to their optimistic or
pessimistic attitude ignorance about economic developments etc. these estimates are
consolidated, reviewed and adjusted by the top executives. In case of wide differences, an
average is struck to make the forecasts realistic.
This method is more useful and appropriate because the salesmen are more knowledge. They can
be important source of information. They are cooperative. The implementation within unbiased
or their basic can be corrected.
Apart from salesmen and consumers, distributors or outside experts may also e used for
forecasting. In the United States of America, the automobile companies get sales estimates
directly from their dealers. Firms in advanced countries make use of outside experts for
estimating future demand. Various public and private agencies all periodic forecasts of short or
long term business conditions.
C. Delphi Method:
In this method the consumers are contacted personally to know about their plans and preference
regarding the consumption of the product. A list of all potential buyers would be drawn and each
buyer will be approached and asked how much he plans to buy the listed product in future. He
would be asked the proportion in which he intends to buy. This method seems to be the most
ideal method for forecasting demand.
2. Statistical Methods:
Statistical method is used for long run forecasting. In this method, statistical and mathematical
techniques are used to forecast demand. This method relies on post data.
A well-established firm would have accumulated data. These data are analyzed to determine the
nature of existing trend. Then, this trend is projected in to the future and the results are used as
the basis for forecast. This is called as time series analysis. This data can be presented either in a
tabular form or a graph. In the time series post data of sales are used to forecast future.
b. Barometric Technique:
Simple trend projections are not capable of forecasting turning paints. Under Barometric method,
present events are used to predict the directions of change in future. This is done with the help of
economics and statistical indicators. Those are (1) Construction Contracts awarded for building
materials (2) Personal income (3) Agricultural Income. (4) Employment (5) Gross national
income (6) Industrial Production (7) Bank Deposits etc.
Regression and correlation are used for forecasting demand. Based on post data the future data
trend is forecasted. If the functional relationship is analyzed with the independent variable it is
simple correction. When there are several independent variables it is multiple correlation. In
correlation we analyze the nature of relation between the variables while in regression; the extent
of relation between the variables is analyzed. The results are expressed in mathematical form.
Therefore, it is called as econometric model building. The main advantage of this method is that
it provides the values of the independent variables from within the model itself.
QUESTIONS
1. What is meant by elasticity of demand? How do you measure it? What are determinates
of elasticity of demand?
2. What is the utility of demand forecasting? What are the criteria for a good forecasting
method? Forecasting of demand for a new product? ‘ Economic indicators’
3. What is promotional elasticity of demand? How does if differ from cross elasticity of
demand.
4. Explain in law of demand. What do you mean by shifts in demand curve?
5. What is cross elasticity of demand? Is it positive for substitute or complements? Show in
a diagram relating to the demand for coffee to the price of tea?
6. Income elasticity of demand and distinguish its, various tapes. How does it differ from
pure elasticity of demand?
7. What is meant by demand? Everyone desires a Maruti 800 Car – Does this mean that the
demand for Maruti Car is large?
8. Calculate price elasticity of demand:
Q1= 4000 P1= 20
Q2= 5000 P2= 19
9. What is demand analysis? Explain the factor influencing the demand for a product?
What are the various factors that influence the demand for a computer.
QUIZ
11. When a small change in price leads great change in the quantity demand,
We call it ________. ( )
(a) Inelastic Demand (b) Negative Demand
(c) Elastic Demand (d) None
12. When a great change in price leads small change in the quantity demand,
We call it ________. ( )
(a) Elastic Demand (b) Positive Demand
(c) Inelastic Demand (d) None
14. Consumers Survey method is one of the Survey Methods to forecast the__. ( )
(a) Sales (b) Income
(c) Demand (d) Production
21. When Income Elasticity of demand is Zero (IE = 0), It is termed as ___. ( )
(a) Negative Income Elasticity (b) Unit Income Elasticity
(c) Zero Income Elasticity (d) Infinite Income Elasticity