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How did the introduction of new pathogens affect economic and demographic structures in
reference to the Antonine Plague?

The Antonine plague is recognised as being a disease that affected the Roman Empire during the
reign of the emperor, Marcus Aurelius. It is widely believed that the disease occurred during the
latter stages of 165 A.D. and continued in an intermittent fashion until at least the death of Marcus
Aurelius in 180 A.D. It additionally may have continued into the initial stages of Commodus’ reign,
with another outbreak thought to have occurred in 189 A.D. It is believed that the plague was
transported to the Mediterranean basin via a campaigning army led by Avidius Cassius that was
returning from Parthia.1 There is also limited knowledge on the known scale of deaths within the
population that were directly credited to the plague, however in the height of its second outbreak in
189 A.D. an eyewitness reported that it caused two thousand deaths a day in Rome.2 In light of this
stated figure, the principal aim of this paper is to establish and determine on what scale this
supposed ‘pandemic’ may have affected the Roman empire and the consequences that it possibly
imposed on the economic and demographic elements of the regions that the plague disrupted. In
order to produce an informed conclusion it will be necessary to employ appropriate literary evidence
contemporary to the afflicted period and to also scrutinise and evaluate relevant scholarly theories.

It is essential to acknowledge the nature and characteristics of the disease that may have
acted as a catalyst to the inevitable demise of the Roman empire to ascertain the severity of its
affects. Perhaps due to the repercussions of the plague itself, it is apparent that a distinct lack of
contemporary evidence exists and the records that have been recovered tend to be particularly
inexplicit; ‘authors and digests of the annalists seem not to mention plague outbreaks as a matter of
course, presumably because epidemic disease was over familiar, or little to their taste’.3
Nevertheless, a doctor named Galen had several interactions with the plague4 and therefore had
considerable knowledge of the disease due to the records that he documented whilst he was
diagnosing and treating recipients who had been exposed to the disease. It is imperative to note
however, that Galen neither concerned himself of where the disease had originated from nor the
ramifications that it may have caused; he simply concentrated in the ‘treatment and physical effects’
of the illness.5

It is important to summarise the apparent symptoms of the disease to establish what

variation of pathogen the plague may have actually been. Aforementioned, due to the insufficient
quantity of evidence that is available, it is necessary to primarily utilise Galen’s annals to develop a
conclusion; Galen describes the plague as a great one which persisted for a protracted amount of
time.6 He goes on to report that sufferers were experiencing from numerous symptoms that were

1 Bruce W. Frier “Demography”, (Cambridge Histories Online, 2008) 794

2Dio LXXII 12.3-4. In R. Littman &R.J Littman, “Galen and the Antonine Plague”, (The American Journal of Philology, Vol. 94,
No.3) 1973

3 Duncan-Jones, “The Impact of the Antonine Plague” (JRA, Vol.9, 1996) 110
4 Littman: He encountered the epidemic whilst residing in Rome in 166 A.D. and likewise during the winter of 168 A.D. in
Aquileia when an outbreak occurred within Roman soldiers who were situated at that location.
5 Littman & Littman, Galen and the Antonine Plague, 243-53

6 J.F. Gilliam, “The Plague under Marcus Aurelius”, The American Journal of Philology, Vol. 82, No.3 (1961), 228

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consistent with each individual; firstly, victims complained of diarrhoea and fever coupled with the
excrement being defecated by the patient being black in appearance. Additionally, other indicators
of the disease included vomiting, coughing, fetid breath and internal ulcerations. However, the
symptom that is particularly significant is the presence of exanthema that covered the body. Galen
expansively describes the appearance of a rash which is comparable to the effects of smallpox.
Furthermore, it is recognised that the intestinal symptoms and the abovementioned effects of the
disease are also similar to that of smallpox. Therefore it is possible to assume that the epidemic that
wrought death upon the Roman empire may have been a strain of smallpox.7 From this admission it
may aid the investigation into the measure of devastation that the plague may have caused.

The levels of mortality rate and life expectancy within the Roman empire is a heavily
contested debate. It is an accepted theory that for many Romans, life was short with the young
predominately outnumbering the elderly.8 However, in reference to the mortality rate that occurred
during the period of the Antonine plague, it is difficult to establish whether the plague had a
devastating impact on the population in comparison to times that were not affected by plague. If
this epidemic was indeed smallpox converging on peoples that had never been exposed to this type
of pathogen before, then it would be feasible to suggest that it would have substantially claimed the
lives of perhaps a third of a metropolitan population. This evidently supports the figure quoted
earlier of two thousand deaths per day in 189 A.D.9 Conversely, the problem of establishing how the
epidemic may have affected the hinterland areas of the empire poses more of a problem, which will
be discussed later in the paper.

In reference to the principal cities of the Roman empire such as Rome, Alexandria or
Pompeii, it is realistic to propose the notion of inadequate techniques of sanitation within these
conurbations that may have contributed to the levels of low life expectancy and high mortality.
Therefore, it is essential to measure and analyse how successful these Romans metropolises were at
conserving sanitary standards to evaluate whether it was these conditions that produced a sufficient
environment for a plague to take effect on a catastrophic scale. If it is assumed that the plague was
indeed a variant of smallpox or a similar pathogen then it can be transmitted by an infected
individual through relatively close contact: the virus can be propelled through the air for short
distances or passed along by immediate physical contact with a diseased person, or with his or her
clothing or linen, and may also be spread via direct contact with infected bodily fluids.10 What is
known is that the Romans in comparison to modern westernised societies achieved a noteworthy
level of achievement in terms of providing public latrines and baths,11 but how detrimental were
these examples and other features of cities to the health of the Roman people, and how could they
have contributed to providing a suitable environment for the plague to intensify in its effects?

7 Littman & Littman, Galen and the Antonine Plague, 243-53

8 Walter Scheidel “Roman Age Structure: Evidence and Models”, The Journal of Roman Studies, Vol. 91(2001) 1
9 Walter Scheidel “Diease and Death in the Ancient City of Rome”, Princeton/Stanford Working Papers in Classics (2009) 7
10 D.A. Koplow, , The Fight to Eradicate a Global Scourge, (London, 2003) 12

11 A. Scobie , “Slums, Sanitation and Mortality in the Roman World”, Klio 68,(1986), 400

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The disposal of human faecal matter in an improper manner within Roman cities seriously
affected the health of the inhabitants; it is stated within the Digest (Papinian) at 43.10.1.2 that it is
an offence to throw excrement onto the street, to contaminate the water supply and also to cover
anyone with filth, and an inscription has also been exposed at a public water basin that dictates that
pollution of the water supply with excrement is forbidden. However, these regulations would have
been clearly flouted, as at Pompeii there is evidence showing that individuals would defecate in
streets and doorways or would simply throw the contents of their matellae and lasana12 out at
night. Public baths are also a matter of grave concern in the transmission of pathogens; it was a
thought within society that visiting the baths would help aid recovery from any illnesses or ailment,
on the contrary it was quite the opposite. To illustrate this, in Celsus’ de medicina he advises patients
with bowel troubles to sit in a hot pool and bathe his anus frequently (4.25.2)13 Consequently, it can
be assumed that the common perception of baths boasting health benefits may have had the
opposite affect and the likelihood of contracting or transmitting a pathogen to another individual
may have been rather high. The significant aspect of life in Roman cities that may have aided the
plague in drastic effect is the impression of overcrowding that occurred; populations and densities of
cities remain uncertain, but there can be no doubt that many residents would have dwelled in
confined conditions.14 For example, due to high rents in Rome, individuals would be compelled to
crowd into the upper floors of an insulae15 in an effort to curtail their financial burdens,16 the ‘slums’
of Rome then, can be summarised as ‘an overcrowded, filthy slum, its streets choked with rubbish
and roaming dogs, muggers and vultures; the lives of the majority of the population are seen to be
squalid, miserable and above all, short’.17 Therefore in view of these aspects of life in crowded and
unsanitary surroundings there comes the reality of a short, disease ridden existence. It is apparent
then, that once the plague reached the confines of a city it would have had terrible ramifications for
the populace living within a congested municipality; as is outlined in this passage from Livy where he
writes concerning a disease that had affected both city and country, but multiplied dramatically
when the populaces from the agrarian provinces fled to the city; “It was the sickly season, and
chanced to be a year of pestilence both in the City and in the country, for beasts as well as men; and
the people increased the virulence of the disease, in their dread of pillage, by receiving flocks and
country-folk into the City…the country-people, being packed into narrow quarters, suffered greatly
from…the exchange of ministrations and mere contact spread the infection”.18

It is unmistakable that the Antonine plague had circumstantial effects on several

components of the Roman empire, principally the economic and administrative structures. It is
imperative to assess these areas to determine if this epidemic was wholly detrimental to the Roman
world. A particular indicator of the plague taking affect in the arable regions of the empire is
exposed by the discovery of a papyri fragment that may provide an insight into the effects of the
plague upon agricultural Egypt between the periods of 160-70 A.D. This document, termed
P.Oxy.LXVI 4527 seems to represent an account of taxes to be paid in 184/5 A.D. from the

12 The latin term for chamber pot.

13 Scobie, Slums,” Sanitation and Mortality” 416-18, 428
14 Scheidel, “Disease & Death “, 8
15 A type of apartment building that housed the majority of lower and middle classed citizens within Rome.
16 Scobie, “Slums, Sanitation and Mortality”, 428
17 Scobie, “Slums, Sanitation and Mortality, 193
18 Titus Livius (Livy) Ab Urbe Condita, book 3.6.2

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Herakleides division of the Arsinoite nome19, it is possible that this text may or may not suggest that
the wheat and other agricultural produce tax collected in the nome was considerably smaller than it
had been before the epidemic,20 and therefore implying that the Antonine plague did possibly have
disadvantageous effects upon the economy. There are two schools of thought in regards to this
document, with the argument hinging on the particular figures of 814,862 artabas of wheat in line
seven and its corresponding figure of 223,581 in line 15 of the fragment. Bagnall suggests that these
figures do not represent a decline in taxes; from line 15 to 17 the document decrees the amount of
produce delivered in Mesore.21 It is known that the vast majority of taxes were distributed to the
state granaries in the last three months of the Egyptian calendar. Bagnall proposes the notion that if
the figures for the previous two months before Mesore were similar to Mesore itself then it would
be calculated as 670,743 artabas (3 x 223,581), which is similar to the figure of 814,862 artabas,
suggesting that there was not a substantial decline in the yield of produce.22 Contrastingly, Van
Minnen declares that this is not the case; he claims the figures from line 15 onwards are the
amounts actually collected until the end of the Egyptian year that subsequently fall drastically in
comparison to the projected figures from line 7, which would suggest that the Arisinoite nome was
in a dilemma for some adverse reason; perhaps the Antonine plague had dramatic affects upon the
population of the region.23 It is evident that the plague was carried into Egypt in 166/7 A.D. and
could have had an approximate impact of perhaps a 20-30 percent death toll on the populace of the
rural community24, therefore the plague could be accountable for the drop in wheat production if it
is assumed Van Minnen’s theory is correct.

By analysing the poll tax registers from the village of Karanis in the Arisnoite region of Egypt
it is possible to classify the percentage deficit that the population may have suffered, which can
possibly provide an explanation for the arguable decrease on the abovementioned tax paid on
agricultural produce. Between the years of 171-4 A.D the poll tax registers and other tax records
displayed that at least 575 to 644 payers would have been paying tax. However, there is evidence
that prior to the plague the population would have been larger. This indication is supplied by a
fragmentary papyrus document that denotes that the sum of the poll tax collected in Karanis during
145-6 A.D. (this date is in question) was 38,312 drachmas. If it is assumed that each contributor paid
40 drachmas annually then the figure of 958 is produced. Due to another tax that was imposed on
communities; the huike tax, this figure can be increased to 1,093 contributors.25 The Antonine
plague lasted sporadically between 165-89 A.D. With these records demonstrating a population
reduction within the period of the plague, it may provide evidence to suggest that the epidemic did
have a rather damaging effect upon the hinterlands of the Roman empire. However, although these
supposed decreases in population may coincide with a reduction in the production of arable produce
it is plausible that the plague may have forced individuals to flee the region, and therefore reducing

19R.S. Bagnall , “P.Oxy 4527 and the Antonine Plague in Egypt: Death or Flight?”, JRA, 13, (2000) 287

20 Walter Scheidel, “Roman Wellbeing and the Economic Consequences of the Antonine Plague”, Princeton/Stanford
Working Papers in Classics (2010) 16
21 The last month of the Egyptian calendar.
22 Bagnall, “P.Oxy 4527”, 289-90
23P. Van Minnen, ”P.Oxy. LXVI and the Antonine Plague in the Fayyum”, ZPE, 135, (2001) 176
24 D. Rathbone, "Roman Egypt". The Cambridge Economic History of the Greco-Roman World. Eds. Walter Scheidel et

al.(Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007) 700

25 A.E.R Boak, “Egypt and the Plague of Marcus Aurelius”, Historia: Zeitschrift fur Alte Geschicte, Vol. 8, No.2 (1959), 248-9

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the number of people to cultivate and work the land. Whether the individuals in question fled or
perished is difficult to establish, but either way this would have had economic implications for the
Roman empire as a whole. It possibly would not have affected the food supply to Rome in a
devastating fashion to create a hunger pandemic as people were dying there too, and thus demand
for food surely would have decreased as well. But, this reduction in the amount of taxes being paid
by contributors due to the apparent effects of the plague would have been a repercussion that the
state would not have been able to ignore.26

Imperial property was a crucial possession of the Roman empire, these properties not only
consisted of agricultural estates, such as the aforementioned Arisnoite nome in Egypt but also
comprised of a number of mines and quarries. These estates and the rents that were extracted from
them supplemented the state budget , which could have been allocated to be spent on cities or perhaps
the army: a huge expenditure.27 In comparison to the claimed decrease in rural activity it can be argued
that there was also a decline in the construction of non-imperial and imperially funded buildings within
Italy between 98-211 A.D. which could possibly be attributed to the devastations of the plague. This is
represented by a gradual decrease in building inscriptions each year from emperor Antoninus Pius’ reign
through to the tenures of the emperors that ruled through the Antonine plague period, Aurelius and
Commodus . There is also evidence to suggest the between the periods of 161-92 A.D. (the reigns of
Aurelius and Commodus) there were no imperially financed buildings erected in Italy.28 However the
notion of this theory is only supported with indicative figures, as it is based purely on epigraphical data
and not from archaeological analysis of other buildings that may indicate that they possibly were created
during the plague period. In retrospect, if it is inscriptions that are focused on it is worthwhile considering
other figures that have been published. Bruun shows some subtle differences to the previously
mentioned figure; in comparison to the finding of no imperial buildings being constructed during
Aurelius’ and Commodus’ reign, Bruun proposes that a miniscule one building project per emperor was
overseen during their rule.29 Whichever figure is believed, they both support the idea that there was an
enormous decline in building projects compared to earlier emperors, such as Hadrian who arguably
administered perhaps twenty four imperial building projects in Italy.

This decline can also be correlated to the previously mentioned mines and quarries. It is
apparent that there was a drop in the excavation of Marble that occurred during the time of the plague
between the periods of 166-173 A.D and also 180-196 A.D. This decline may be attributed to the plague
with mortality in the mining regions becoming high and therefore operations becoming obsolete during
these periods, or perhaps due to the decline in the erection of buildings, marble was perhaps not
required in the cities of the empire.30

In spite of these debatable declines in building commissions and mining activity it should be
considered that the plague cannot be exclusively responsible, as there are other explanations available to
justify these decreases. For instance, a plausible rationalisation for the absence of any buildings being

26Van Minnen, “P.Oxy LXVI”, 177

27Elio Lo Cascio,. "The Early Roman Empire: The State and the Economy." The Cambridge Economic History of the Greco-
Roman World. Eds. Walter Scheidel et al. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007) 642

28C.Bruun, 2007, “The Antonine plague and the third-century crisis”. Crises and the Roman Empire.Eds. Olivier Hekster et al
(Leidin:Brill, 2007) 210

29Bruun, “The Antonine Plague”, 213

30J. Clayton Fant, “Cavum Antrae Phryigae: The Organization & Operations of the Roman Imperial Marble Quarries in
Phrygia”(Oxford, British Archaeological Reports, 1989) 62-64

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constructed in Italy during the reigns of Aurelius and Commodus can be explained via the statistic that
Hadrian and Pius had commissioned a large quantity of public buildings to be erected, and the need for
further structures during Aurelius’ or Commodus’ reigns were simply not needed31. Furthermore,
Aurelius experienced several accounts of war during his reign, in particular the Marcomannic war which
arose whilst the Parthian war was still in progress32.These campaigns would have demanded considerable
amounts of reserves from imperial funds and therefore a decrease in the number of public buildings
being erected in Italy at this time can be acceptably explained without direct reference to the plague.

Another area of interest is the general state of the economy at the time of the Antonine plague.
A general consensus in economic theory is that if demand outstrips supply, prices increase; therefore a
reduction in the population size of the empire could have economically benefited the workers that
survived the epidemic; if individuals perished or fled due to the plague, this creates a scenario where the
supply of labour would have been scarce. As a result of this situation, it is plausible that the value of land
would have fallen as do the rates for land rental and as a consequence, remaining workers are paid a
higher wage. This can be perceived as being an anticipated outcome during an epidemic. In a brief
comparison to the ‘Black death’ plague it is apparent that with a ‘high demand for labour and reduced
numbers of hands, employers had problems in recruiting and keeping workers, and had to pay higher
wages’.33 This increase in wages can be plausibly attributed to a case of depopulation. A decrease in the
populace would also credibly reduce the prices of commodities (such as wheat or grain) and also cause a
reduction in rent on the grain producing lands.34 Although the two epidemics are not entirely compatible
in terms of devastation, the comparison can give an insight in to the economic effects of the Antonine
plague upon the Roman empire. This is evident in Roman Egypt with the aftermath of a decrease in
population being illustrated in papyrus records; ‘daily and monthly wages of unskilled rural workers rose
more than the price of important consumer goods such as wheat, wine and oil, whereas cash land rents
and the price of land lagged even further behind, and land rents in kind dropped’.35

In can be suggested that the plague then not only caused a rise in wages for labour, but also a
rise in prices in the economy. This may be attributed to the decrease in the production of commodities
within the hinterlands of the Roman empire; ‘I still believe the primary cause of this is to be found in
unprecedented economic dislocation, leading to an exceptional general increase in prices, caused by the
Antonine plague’36 . However as aforementioned, demand defines price; Egypt sold a majority of its
commodities abroad or to the Roman government, areas which were also affected by the onslaught of
the plague, so surely as population fell there too, so would have demand, with a result of prices not rising
as previously suggested. 37 Therefore, how can a supposed increase in prices be compensated for during
the period of the plague? Again, there is a justifiable explanation which is not linked to the effects of the
epidemic. When Marcus Aurelius came to power, during the initial stages of his reign he exhausted the
Roman Imperial reserves and tax revenues on wars and accessional gifts. To combat this, Aurelius

31 Bruun, “The Antonine Plague, 213-217

32Historia Augusta, Marcus Aurelius, 12, note 92

33C. Dyer, ‘Work ethics in the fourteenth century’ in Bothwell, J. Goldberg, P. Ormrod, W, eds “The problem of labour in
fourteenth-century England”(York: York Medieval Press, 2000) 26

34J. Munro, ‘Before and After the Black Death: Money, Prices, and Wages in Fourteenth-Century England’, New Approaches
to the History of Late Medieval and Early Modern Europe: Selected Proceedings of Two International Conferences at The
Royal Danish Academy of Sciences and Letters in Copenhagen edited by Troels Dahlerup et al (1997)

35 Scheidel, “Roman Wellbeing” ,15

36 Bagnall, “P.Oxy 4527” 290
37 Bagnall, “P.Oxy 4527”, 290-291

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debased38 the denarius due to the Parthian war. Victory in this war gave no respite due to the Germanic
hordes crossing the Danube and disrupting mining in Dalmatia and Dacia. In 168-170 A.D. Aurelius had
this frontier crisis under control, restored the denarius to its original standard but this restoration was
discarded when fighting erupted once again. 39 It is evident that Aurelius conducted numerous operations
in regards to coinage to fund the wars and skirmishes that occurred during his reign, which could be held
accountable for inflation during this time, thus a rise in prices.

The existence of the Antonine plague has never been in doubt, the aim of this paper was to
present evidence to suggest how catastrophic this epidemic may have been. By comparing the
symptoms of the plague that affected the empire between 169 to 185 A.D. to modern day diagnoses we
can perhaps assume that the epidemic was indeed a strain of smallpox: with this knowledge, it can be
estimated that a more plausible mortality rate of 7-10 per cent could be applied.40 With smallpox being
highly contagious it is safe to assume that the pathogen would have affected a vast majority of the
empire due to the high levels of immigration that existed; “it was most severe in Rome, which, apart
from being normally overcrowded, was still getting immigrants from all over the world” (1.12.1)41.
This statement also, as general as it may be, confirms that the plague would have had more
catastrophic repercussions within areas of high urbanisation and settlement, in particular reference
to the major cities; ‘And there was such a pestilence, besides, that the dead were removed in carts
and waggons…thousands were carried off by the pestilence’42. However, it is known that the Roman
empire suffered consistently from the impact of numerous diseases including cholera, dysentery,
salmonella43 and furthermore due to the Tiber running through Rome prone to flooding, cases of
malaria were also prevalent within Rome. Certain areas of Rome, where the lower echelons of
society tended to live, particularly the valleys were susceptible to outbreaks of disease. As a result of
this, the wealthier tended to live ‘in the healthful hills’44 which were less susceptible to the incursion
of diseases. Therefore, it can be deduced that due to Rome’s topography, large population and influx
of immigrants, the introduction of disease and its consequent intensification was a common
occurrence within the city. Coupled with low levels of sanitation, overcrowding, malnutrition and
insufficient medical care it is no wonder that Roman cities experienced low life expectancy and high
mortality rates. There is no overwhelming and decisive tangible evidence for the amount of deaths
that Rome and the rest of her empire suffered during the Antonine plague; assumptions have been
made as previously mentioned, however it could be apparent that mortality as a direct result of the
Antonine plague was only marginally more catastrophic than other pestilences and deficiencies that
the Roman world persistently experienced.

What can be assumed is that a decrease in population would undoubtedly have had
repercussions on the economy of the empire. Due to the theory of death or flight put forward in

38 Altering the size and content of silver within coinage.

39 K.W. Harl, “Coinage in the Roman Economy, 300 B.C. to 700 A.D.”, (The John Hopkins University Press, 1996) 95

40 Littman & Littman, “Galen and the Antonine Plague”, 252

41 Dio Cassius 1.12.1 in Schiedel (2009) 8
42 Historia Augusta, Marcus Aurelius, 13, note 95
43 Scobie, “Slums, Sanitation and Mortality”, 421
44 Livy 5.53.4 in R.Sallares, “Malaria and Rome: a History of Malaria in Ancient Italy”, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000)

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Bagnalls’ study of the P.Oxy 4527 there would have been a decrease in the amount of tax revenue
that the Roman government collected from the arable regions due to individuals either fleeing or
perishing directly due to the plague; and therefore tax revenues were either difficult or impossible to
acquire. This is an obvious judgement, and can be attributed to the epidemic. However claims that
the Antonine plague affected other components of the economy can all be rationally accounted for
via alternative explanations. The decline in the levels of construction within Italy can be justified via
the large amounts of building projects that were supervised by Trajan, Hadrian and Pius and further
constructions were perhaps not required. In reference to the mechanics of the economy, it is
suggested that there may have been an increase in prices that the plague may have been
responsible for. Again, it is reasonable that this may have been due to the plague, but there are
other possibilities to consider; this inflation in prices may have been caused due to the debasement
of the currency that was organised to finance the wars that were on going at the time.

To conclude, there is evidence to suggest that the Antonine plague did have a severe impact
upon the Roman world, as it affected all elements of society. This can be warranted via
contemporary sources and by more recent scholarly investigations. However, whether it was as
catastrophic as Otto Seeck claimed with the empire suffering fifty per cent fatalities45 is not viable. It
did indeed affect the economy, perhaps not in a distinct, devastating fashion but the Antonine
plague may be considered a catalyst for the eventual decline of the Roman Empire.

45
Gilliam, “The Plague under Marcus” 226

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