Landslide Susceptibility Prediction Considering Regional Soil Erosion Based on Machine-Learning Models
<p>Location of the study area and landslide inventory.</p> "> Figure 2
<p>Predisposing factors under 30 m resolution: (<b>a</b>) elevation; (<b>b</b>) slope; (<b>c</b>) aspect; (<b>d</b>) plan curvature; (<b>e</b>) profile curvature; (<b>f</b>) topographic wetness index (TWI); (<b>g</b>) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI); (<b>h</b>) normalized difference built-up index (NDBI); (<b>i</b>) lithology.</p> "> Figure 3
<p>Flowchart of this study.</p> "> Figure 4
<p>SE values and related factors with 30 m resolutions: (<b>a</b>) R value; (<b>b</b>) K value; (<b>c</b>) LS value; (<b>d</b>) C value; (<b>e</b>) P value; (<b>f</b>) SE value.</p> "> Figure 5
<p>Landslide susceptibility maps with 30 m grid resolutions: (<b>a</b>) SE_MLP model; (<b>b</b>) MLP model; (<b>c</b>) SE_LR model; (<b>d</b>) LR model; (<b>e</b>) SE_SVM model; (<b>f</b>) SVM model; (<b>g</b>) SE_C5.0 DT model; (<b>h</b>) C5.0 DT model.</p> "> Figure 5 Cont.
<p>Landslide susceptibility maps with 30 m grid resolutions: (<b>a</b>) SE_MLP model; (<b>b</b>) MLP model; (<b>c</b>) SE_LR model; (<b>d</b>) LR model; (<b>e</b>) SE_SVM model; (<b>f</b>) SVM model; (<b>g</b>) SE_C5.0 DT model; (<b>h</b>) C5.0 DT model.</p> "> Figure 6
<p>LSMs of each model with 60 m grid resolutions: (<b>a</b>) SE_MLP model; (<b>b</b>) MLP model; (<b>c</b>) SE_LR model; (<b>d</b>) LR model; (<b>e</b>) SE_SVM model; (<b>f</b>) SVM model; (<b>g</b>) SE_C 5.0 DT model; (<b>h</b>) C 5.0 DT model.</p> "> Figure 6 Cont.
<p>LSMs of each model with 60 m grid resolutions: (<b>a</b>) SE_MLP model; (<b>b</b>) MLP model; (<b>c</b>) SE_LR model; (<b>d</b>) LR model; (<b>e</b>) SE_SVM model; (<b>f</b>) SVM model; (<b>g</b>) SE_C 5.0 DT model; (<b>h</b>) C 5.0 DT model.</p> "> Figure 7
<p>FR values between SE and landslides with resolutions of 30 m (<b>a</b>), 60 m (<b>b</b>) and areas distribution (<b>c</b>) 5.2. Importance Analysis of Soil Erosion in LSP.</p> "> Figure 8
<p>Relative importance of landslide factors in different models with 30 m (<b>a</b>) and 60 m (<b>b</b>) resolutions.</p> "> Figure 9
<p>AUC value of each model with grid resolutions of 30 m: AUC values of SE_MLP and MLP models (<b>a</b>); AUC values of SE_LR and LR models (<b>b</b>); AUC values of SE_SVM and SVM models (<b>c</b>); AUC values of SE_C5.0 DT and C5.0 DT models (<b>d</b>).</p> "> Figure 10
<p>AUC value of each model with grid resolutions of 60 m: AUC values of SE_MLP and MLP models (<b>a</b>); AUC values of SE_LR and LR models (<b>b</b>); AUC values of SE_SVM and SVM models (<b>c</b>); AUC values of SE_C5.0 DT and C5.0 DT models (<b>d</b>).</p> ">
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials
2.1. Introduction to Ningdu County and Landslide Inventory
2.2. Conventional Landslide Predisposing Factors
2.3. Spatial Database Analysis
3. Methods
3.1. Modelling Processes Analysis
3.2. Frequency Ratio Analysis
3.3. Modelling of Soil Erosion (SE) Intensity
3.4. Results of Soil Erosion Intensity Calculation
3.5. Landslide Susceptibility Prediction Model
3.5.1. Multilayer Perceptron (MLP)
3.5.2. Logistic Regression (LR) Model
3.5.3. Support Vector Machine (SVM)
3.5.4. C5.0 Decision Tree (C5.0 DT)
3.5.5. Statistically Significant Differences of Landslide Susceptibility Prediction (LSP) Models
4. Results
4.1. LSP Results under 30 m Resolution
4.1.1. Landslide Susceptibility Maps (LSMs) of MLP Model
4.1.2. LSMs of LR model
4.1.3. LSMs of SVM and C5.0 DT Models
4.2. LSP Results under 60 m Resolution
4.2.1. LSP Related Spatial Dataset Analysis
4.2.2. LSMs Using SE-Based Model and Single Model
5. Discussion
5.1. Frequency Ratio Analysis of SE Factor under Different Resolutions
5.2. Accuracy Comparisons of SE-Based Models and Single Models under Different Resolutions
5.3. Statistical Differences between SE-Based Models and Single Models
6. Conclusions
- (1)
- The FR analysis suggests that the FR value of SE gradually increases with the rise of soil erosion class, and the landslides are more inclined to the higher class soil erosion area. Furthermore, it can be concluded that the contribution of SE factor in all models is the largest under both 30 m and 60 m grid resolutions. That is to say, the SE factor plays the most important role in LSP modelling compared to the other traditional predisposing factors.
- (2)
- The comparison results show that the prediction accuracies of the four types of SE-based models are all higher than those of the single model under both 30 m and 60 m resolutions. In addition, the LSP accuracy under 30 m resolution is generally higher than that under 60 m resolution. Hence, it can be concluded that it is appropriate for LSP under 30 m resolution in Ningdu County, and the SE-based models are more appropriate for the LSP under both resolutions.
- (3)
- In general, under the conditions of 30 m and 60 m resolutions and the influences of SE factor, the C5.0 DT and SVM models show higher LSP performance than the MLP and LR models.
- (4)
- As a whole, the predicted distribution regularities of landslide susceptibility in Ningdu County can provide a theoretical basis for reducing local landslide risk and improving the control ability of geological disasters.
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Predisposing Factors | Classification |
---|---|
Elevation (m) | [155,244); [244,322); [322,411); [411,509); [509,618); [618,751); [751,938); [938,1411) |
Slope (°) | [0.00,3.53); [3.53,7.27); [7.27,11.23); [11.23,15.18); [15.18,19.33); [19.33,24.12); [24.12,30.35); [30.35,53.02) |
Aspect | Flat; North; Northeast; East; Southeast; South; Southwest; West; Northwest |
Plan curvature | [0.00,9.91); [9.91,18.22); [18.22,27.48); [27.48,37.39); [37.39,47.94); [47.94,58.81); [58.81,70.64); [70.64,81.50) |
Profile curvature | [0.00,1.53); [1.53,3.05); [3.05,4.71); [4.71,6.48); [6.48,8.52); [8.52,11.06); [11.06,14.75); [14.75,32.44) |
TWI | [2.79,5.65); [5.65,7.24); [7.24,9.15); [9.15,11.69); [11.69,15.34); [15.34,24.39); [24.39,43.28) |
NDVI | [−0.187,0.025); [0.025,0.131); [0.131,0.196); [0.196,0.243); [0.243,0.282); [0.282,0.321); [0.321,0.362); [0.362,0.516) |
NDBI | [−0.502,−0.379); [−0.379,−0.337); [−0.337,−0.292); [−0.292,−0.244); [−0.244,−0.191); [−0.191,−0.135); [−0.135,−0.067); [−0.067,0.455) |
Lithology | metamorphic rock; magmatic rock; clastic rock; carbonate rock; water body |
SE (t/ha) | [0,5); [5,25); [25,50); [50,80); [80,4700.75) |
Variables | β | Standard Error | SIG | Collinear Statistics | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Variance Inflation Factor | Tolerance | ||||
Elevation | 1.589 | 0.115 | 0.000 | 1.102 | 0.907 |
Slope | 0.993 | 0.060 | 0.000 | 1.172 | 0.853 |
Aspect | 0.857 | 0.144 | 0.000 | 1.042 | 0.960 |
Plan curvature | 1.020 | 0.167 | 0.000 | 1.083 | 0.924 |
Profile curvature | 1.170 | 0.086 | 0.000 | 1.117 | 0.895 |
Lithology | 1.383 | 0.105 | 0.000 | 1.077 | 0.928 |
NDBI | 1.313 | 0.106 | 0.000 | 1.575 | 0.635 |
NDVI | 0.429 | 0.155 | 0.006 | 1.592 | 0.628 |
TWI | 0.744 | 0.136 | 0.000 | 1.100 | 0.909 |
SE | 1.989 | 0.112 | 0.000 | 1.018 | 0.982 |
constant | -11.969 | 0.398 | 0.000 | - | - |
Variables | β | Standard Error | SIG | Collinear Statistics | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Variance Inflation Factor | Tolerance | ||||
Elevation | 1.382 | 0.166 | 0.000 | 1.191 | 0.839 |
Slope | 0.93 | 0.083 | 0.000 | 1.136 | 0.880 |
Aspect | 0.617 | 0.215 | 0.003 | 1.033 | 0.968 |
Plan curvature | 1.372 | 0.156 | 0.000 | 1.084 | 0.922 |
Profile curvature | 0.748 | 0.212 | 0.000 | 1.132 | 0.883 |
Lithology | 0.431 | 0.151 | 0.000 | 1.089 | 0.918 |
NDBI | 1.283 | 0.14 | 0.000 | 1.796 | 0.557 |
NDVI | 0.205 | 0.208 | 0.000 | 1.910 | 0.524 |
TWI | 0.669 | 0.136 | 0.001 | 1.045 | 0.957 |
SE | 1.543 | 0.207 | 0.000 | 1.004 | 0.998 |
constant | -9.127 | 0.511 | 0.000 | - | - |
Gird Resolution | Models | AUC with SE (%) | AUC with No SE (%) | Improvement (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|
30 m | MLP | 79.2 | 76.2 | 3.94 |
LR | 78.3 | 75.7 | 3.43 | |
SVM | 82.1 | 79.6 | 3.14 | |
C5.0 DT | 86.7 | 84.8 | 2.24 | |
60 m | MLP | 76.2 | 74.0 | 2.97 |
LR | 74.3 | 72.3 | 2.77 | |
SVM | 82.4 | 78.6 | 4.83 | |
C5.0 DT | 79.7 | 76.8 | 3.78 |
Resolution | Parameter | MLP | LR | SVM | C5.0 DT |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
30 m | Z | −3.323 | −2.879 | −5.871 | −2.358 |
P | 0.001 | 0.004 | 0.000 | 0.018 | |
60 m | Z | −6.703 | −2.223 | −3.176 | −6.953 |
P | 0.000 | 0.026 | 0.001 | 0.000 |
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Huang, F.; Chen, J.; Du, Z.; Yao, C.; Huang, J.; Jiang, Q.; Chang, Z.; Li, S. Landslide Susceptibility Prediction Considering Regional Soil Erosion Based on Machine-Learning Models. ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2020, 9, 377. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi9060377
Huang F, Chen J, Du Z, Yao C, Huang J, Jiang Q, Chang Z, Li S. Landslide Susceptibility Prediction Considering Regional Soil Erosion Based on Machine-Learning Models. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information. 2020; 9(6):377. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi9060377
Chicago/Turabian StyleHuang, Faming, Jiawu Chen, Zhen Du, Chi Yao, Jinsong Huang, Qinghui Jiang, Zhilu Chang, and Shu Li. 2020. "Landslide Susceptibility Prediction Considering Regional Soil Erosion Based on Machine-Learning Models" ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 9, no. 6: 377. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi9060377