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Landslide susceptibility mapping using random forest, boosted regression tree, classification and regression tree, and general linear models and comparison of their performance at Wadi Tayyah Basin, Asir Region, Saudi Arabia

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Abstract

The purpose of the current study is to produce landslide susceptibility maps using different data mining models. Four modeling techniques, namely random forest (RF), boosted regression tree (BRT), classification and regression tree (CART), and general linear (GLM) are used, and their results are compared for landslides susceptibility mapping at the Wadi Tayyah Basin, Asir Region, Saudi Arabia. Landslide locations were identified and mapped from the interpretation of different data types, including high-resolution satellite images, topographic maps, historical records, and extensive field surveys. In total, 125 landslide locations were mapped using ArcGIS 10.2, and the locations were divided into two groups; training (70 %) and validating (25 %), respectively. Eleven layers of landslide-conditioning factors were prepared, including slope aspect, altitude, distance from faults, lithology, plan curvature, profile curvature, rainfall, distance from streams, distance from roads, slope angle, and land use. The relationships between the landslide-conditioning factors and the landslide inventory map were calculated using the mentioned 32 models (RF, BRT, CART, and generalized additive (GAM)). The models’ results were compared with landslide locations, which were not used during the models’ training. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC), including the area under the curve (AUC), was used to assess the accuracy of the models. The success (training data) and prediction (validation data) rate curves were calculated. The results showed that the AUC for success rates are 0.783 (78.3 %), 0.958 (95.8 %), 0.816 (81.6 %), and 0.821 (82.1 %) for RF, BRT, CART, and GLM models, respectively. The prediction rates are 0.812 (81.2 %), 0.856 (85.6 %), 0.862 (86.2 %), and 0.769 (76.9 %) for RF, BRT, CART, and GLM models, respectively. Subsequently, landslide susceptibility maps were divided into four classes, including low, moderate, high, and very high susceptibility. The results revealed that the RF, BRT, CART, and GLM models produced reasonable accuracy in landslide susceptibility mapping. The outcome maps would be useful for general planned development activities in the future, such as choosing new urban areas and infrastructural activities, as well as for environmental protection.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the editorial comments and anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments on the previous version of the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Geology Department, Faculty of Science, Sohag University, Sohag, Egypt

    Ahmed Mohamed Youssef

  2. Geological Hazards Department, Applied Geology Sector, Saudi Geological Survey, P.O. Box 54141, Jeddah, 21514, Saudi Arabia

    Ahmed Mohamed Youssef & Mohamed M. Al-Katheeri

  3. Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Engineering, College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran

    Hamid Reza Pourghasemi

  4. Department of Environment Management Engineering, College of Natural Resources, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran

    Zohre Sadat Pourtaghi

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Youssef, A.M., Pourghasemi, H.R., Pourtaghi, Z.S. et al. Landslide susceptibility mapping using random forest, boosted regression tree, classification and regression tree, and general linear models and comparison of their performance at Wadi Tayyah Basin, Asir Region, Saudi Arabia. Landslides 13, 839–856 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-015-0614-1

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