How Long Will Sir Keir Starmer Last As UK Prime Minister?
Betting sites believe Sir Keir Starmer will see out a rocky few weeks of tough headlines and remain prime minister of the UK into 2025 and beyond – but the odds of the Conservatives winning the next election are shrinking.
Labour have a large majority in the House of Commons, which means Starmer can push through legislation as he sees fit.
The government has already endured criticism in its first two months in office for refraining from turning the spending taps of.
After 14 years of Conservative rule, many people voted for Labour in the hope that public investment would flow soon after.
However, Starmer is bracing the country for a tough budget this autumn. Spending cuts are expected, the winter fuel allowance for pensioners has been cut back, and Labour’s defence commitments are being questioned.
It was always going to be a difficult honeymoon period for the new prime minister in the wake of Rishi Sunak’s premiership.
But polling suggests Starmer’s net approval rating has plummeted since he strolled into No 10 – and the bookies are taking note.
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There are two markets live on New betting sites that punters can use to gauge the chances of Starmer losing his job any time soon.
The first is betting on his exit date, with bookies believing he as a 98% chance of remaining as PM into 2025.
That seems a given even though Starmer is facing tough questions over the winter fuel allowance. By scrapping the blanket cover, and instead giving the £300 allowance on a means-tested basis, the PM is being accused of neglecting pensioners.
Labour argue the change is needed to plug the gap in the public finances. But it also shows the power Starmer currently wields in the party.
With such a large majority so early in this parliament, Starmer has the freedom to make these policy decisions without fear of MP rebellion. Everyone is under the whip right now.
No wonder that betting apps are confident he will keep his job.
However, they’re less sure about Labour winning the next election. Starmer could be out of the job by 2029 as the Conservatives’ odds start to improve.
Labour are 4/6 with £50 in Free Bets, when you Bet £10" data-brand_id="125" data-brand_product_id="76" data-offer_id="14832" data-site_offer_id="32230" data-gtm="pagetext Betfred" data-cta_hash="3e01b782-6fe7-41ca-985b-d2dcf908410a" >Betfred to win the next election, the Tories are 7/4 with other bookies.
That suggests a 60% chance of Labour retaining power. But the Conservative price is trending upwards and they now have a 36.4% likelihood of securing a 2029 majority.
These odds with political betting sites might not seem significant now but they mark the start of a trend that takes a few years to complete.
Once the next Tory leader is in place, it’s likely that the bookmakers will narrow the odds gap between the two main parties even further.
Starmer need not worry for now but the odds could paint a very different picture next summer, once the country has come through a tough winter.
His fellow MPs may also start getting restless if the budget restrictions applied by chancellor Rachel Reeves start to pinch local communities.
The whip is working for now but Labour have more than 400 MPs. They’ve been told to “toughen up” in preparation for hard-hitting policies to come.
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But many of the party’s new MPs were elected on the hope that more public spending is coming.
Starmer is walking a financial tightrope right now. The state of public finances means he has to make cuts somewhere because he pledged not to raise taxes.
He can try and align the economy closer to the EU (without betraying Brexiteers) but it will take time to feel the benefits of this.
The Labour Party Conference will be the first big test of Starmer’s premiership in front of his own party members. Deliver a consistent message here and it will buy him time over the winter.
Fail to make an impression and the pressure on his leadership will begin to mount.
Whoever gets the job, it’s likely that Starmer will get through a few scrapes before his time in Downing Street is up.
Just like Boris Johnson in 2019, there was chatter of Starmer overseeing a decade of power when he won the election this summer. But the doubts have already crept in.
A refusal to shift on the two-child benefits cap, a nationwide jails crisis, and now the looming threat of winter is testing the Labour leader in his early years in office.
How “worse” things get before they get better remains to be seen.
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