Journal of Agriculture and Natural Resources (2021) 4(2): 63-74
ISSN: 2661-6270 (Print), ISSN: 2661-6289 (Online)
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3126/janr.v4i2.33657
Research Article
Prospect and potentiality of finger millet in Nepal: Nutritional
security and trade perspective
Samaya Gairhe1*, Devendra Gauchan2 and Krishna Prasad Timsina3
1
Nepal Agricultural Research Council, Singhdurbar Plaza, Kathmandu, Nepal
Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, Kathmandu, Nepal
3
National Agricultural Policy Research Centre, Khumaltar, Lalitpur, Nepal
*Correspondence: samaya43@gmail.com
*ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1735-3334
Received: August 15, 2020; Revised: October 30, 2020;
Accepted: December 15, 2020; Available online: January 01, 2021
2
© Copyright: Gairhe et al. (2021)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial 4.0
International License.
ABSTRACT
Millet is an important food crop for ensuring food and nutrition security of smallholder farmers and marginalized
communities in the hill and mountain of Nepal. The main objectives of the study were to assess prospects and
potentiality of millet by analysing the area, production, productivity, and trade for the year 2009-2019. The study
used a combination of exploratory survey and secondary data for assessing the production system, compound
growth rate, coefficient of variation (CV), instability index (IIN), and trade specialization index. The results of
the study are compiled and the synthesis of the analysis is presented in both tabular and graphic forms. Growth
rate analysis showed that the area of millet is declining but the import value, production, and yield were increasing
at the rate of 14.62, 0.47, and 0.73 percent per annum respectively. Import and export values and quantity showed
higher CV as well as IIN while area, production, and yield showed lower values. The trade specialization index
was found as -0.992, which indicates that millet is in the introduction phase. Out of the total millets area, 78% of
the area lies in the hill, 19% in the mountain, and only 3% in the terai. The highest area and production can be
observed in Bagmati province while the least was observed in province no two. The study implies that there is a
need to increase production and productivity to reduce increasing imports and make the country self-reliant in
millet production with increased investment in research and development and adequate support from national
policies and programs.
Keywords: millets, production system, smallholders, nutrition security, trade
Correct citation: Gairhe, S., Gauchan, D., & Timsina, K.P. (2021). Prospect and potentiality
of finger millet in Nepal: Nutritional security and trade perspective. Journal of Agriculture
and Natural Resources, 4(2), 63-74. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3126/janr.v4i2.33657
INTRODUCTION
Millet is an important group of small-seeded cereal crops and is a member of the grass family.
Among the millets, finger millet is the most important crop in Nepal in terms of area and
production followed by proso millet and foxtail millet. Besides, Sorghum, barnyard millet,
pearl millet, little millet, and kodo millet are also grown in different parts of the country
(Ghimire et al., 2017). Among millet groups, finger millet is the most important crop and the
fourth important cereal crop after rice, maize, wheat in Nepal. It is planted in the area of
263,261 ha in 2018/19 with average productivity of 1.19 t/ha in 2019 (MoALD, 2019) which
was 1.10 t/ha a decade ago in 2008/09 (MoALD, 2009). Recent official data of the Ministry of
Agriculture and Livestock Development (MoALD, 2018/19) show that finger millet is grown
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Journal of Agriculture and Natural Resources (2021) 4(2): 63-74
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.3126/janr.v4i2.33657
in 70 districts except in 2 districts of high mountains (Manang and Mustang) and 4 districts of
Terai namely, Kapilbastu, Banke, Bardiaya and Kanchanpur. High diversity of finger millet
exists in the mid hills of Nepal. Out of 15 species reported in the world, three of them namely
Elusine coracana, E. indica and E. aegyptica are found in Nepal (Kandel et al., 2019a). In the
climate change scenario, there is scope for increasing figermillet growing areas due to its
adaptability and suitability for low, marginal lands and also for harsh weather conditions
(Kandel et al., 2019b). The major production districts of Nepal for this crop are Khotang,
Sindhupalchok, Baglung, Syangja, Kaski, Gorkha, and Sindhuli and are considered very
important crop for food and nutrition security in both mid-hill and mountain (Ghimire et al.,
2017). Finger millet is the number one crop in Humla and Mugu districts whereas it is the
second important crop in Jumla, Khotang, and Sindhupalchok in terms of area and production.
Baglung district of Gandaki Province has the largest area and production under finger millet in
Nepal. The highest productivity of finger millet is found in Udaypur (1.97 mt/ha) followed by
Panchthar (1.97 mt/ha) and Okhaldhunga districts (1.97 mt/ha). Province 1 has the highest
productivity of finger millet (1.35 mt/ha).
Nepal is considered a secondary center of millet diversity with diverse types of varieties grown
by smallholder farmers across different altitudes, farming systems, and locations in Nepal. It is
cultivated up to 3100 msl above sea level in Humla at Burounse village near Simikot, probably
at the highest altitude in the world (Baniya et al., 1992; Ghimire et al., 2017; 2020). Millet crop
is a C4 crop with high photosynthetic efficiency, nutrient-dense, locally available, and climate
resilience with high adaptation to drought and other biotic and abiotic stresses. Despite it is
underutilized minor crops in the country, it has the potentials for improving the nutrition and
health security of the growing urban and global population in the changing climate and other
natural environments (Ghimire et al., 2020; Gauchan et al., 2020). Indeed, the millet of Nepal
harbours globally important unique gene pools of nutrition, cold, drought, and pest tolerance
that are important for food and nutrition security of the smallholder farmers and marginalized
mountain communities in the face of changing climate (UNEP GEF, 2013; Ghimire et al., 2018;
Gauchan et al., 2019). The crop is grown under defacto organic conditions and it is meeting
multiple livelihood securities (food, fodder, nutrition, livelihood, and ecological) of
smallholder mountain farmers. This crop is gluten-free, nutrient-dense containing rich
micronutrients, dietary fibers, rare amino acids, vitamins, and account for higher protein,
calcium, and iron as compared to major food staples such as rice, wheat, and potato (DFTQC,
2012; Gauchan, 2019). It is also considered as “Future Smart Food” considering its great value
for nutrition, local adaptation, climate resilience, and risk diversification (Li and Siddique
2018, Ghimire et al., 2018; Joshi et al., 2019; Gauchan et al., 2019). In Nepal, the GEF UNEP
Local Crop Project has named it as one of the Himalayan Superfoods
(www.himalayancrops.org).Five years of food import data of Nepal showed that the import
value has increased from NPRs. 44.43 billion in 2009-10 to NPRs. 127.51 billion in 2013-14
(Gairhe et al., 2018). Even though there is increased productivity of millet over a period, Nepal
has spent NRs 180.10 million to import millet in 2019 (TEPC, 2019).
Farmer preferred variety improvement by participatory method, promoting an agronomic
package of practice, creating market incentives to enhance domestic production, and
integration of in public school are the policy options to uplift the finger millets in Nepal
(LIBIRD, 2016). There is still a social taboo in its consumption by the elite groups in the rural
and urban areas of Nepal. As a result, its research, development is limited and there is a
declining area in the last 3 decades (1991-2011) as per the national census of agriculture in
Nepal (CBS, 2012; Gauchan, 2019). Since finger millet is considered a minor and neglected
crop, a very limited study has been done on studying its production system, productivity, and
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Journal of Agriculture and Natural Resources (2021) 4(2): 63-74
ISSN: 2661-6270 (Print), ISSN: 2661-6289 (Online)
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3126/janr.v4i2.33657
trade dynamics in Nepal. Therefore, this study aims to understand its prospects and potentiality
by assessing its production system, production and requirement gaps, dynamics of its
production and imports growths, and trade in Nepal.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Data Sources
Data on area, production, and yield of millet were collected from Statistical Information of
Nepalese Agriculture of the Ministry of Agricultural and Livestock Development (MoALD).
The import and export data were collected from the Trade and Export Promotion Centre of the
Ministry of Industry, Commerce, and Supplies (MoICS). Source seed production data were
collected from the Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) Division of Nepal Agricultural Research
Council (NARC). The analyses of the data were done by using 11 years of data from 2009 to
2019 on area, production, yield, import, and export of Millets. The study used some specific
analytical tools for assessing the area, production, import, and export growth rate, as well as
production and requirement gap and trade specialization index, are used which are outlined in
this section. The simple descriptive statistics and specific assessment techniques for compound
growth rate and other techniques are presented in both tabular and graphic forms.
Compound Growth Rate (g) Analysis
Growth of any variable indicates its past performance and is frequently used in economic
studies to see the trend of a particular variable over a time period. Gairhe et al. (2018) also used
growth rate while analyzing the dynamics of major cereals productivity in Nepal. The
exponential growth function was used to estimate the growth in the area, production, yield,
value, and quantity of millet import and export in Nepal, which is given below:
Yt= abtut ……………………..…… (1)
Where,
Yt : Dependent variable for which growth rate was estimated
a: Intercept
b: Coefficient of regression (1+g)
t: Years which takes values, 1, 2, …………, n
ut: Disturbance term for the year t
For the estimation purpose, the equation was transformed into log-linear form and the ordinary
least square (OLS) technique was used for estimation. The compound growth rate (g) in
percentage was then computed from the relationship:
g = {Antilog of (ln b)-1} ˟100
Regression coefficient significance was tested by using the student’s’ test.
Coefficient of Variation
To find out the variation in any time-series data, a simple analytical technique like the
coefficient of variation is useful (Gairhe, 2011; Gairhe et al., 2018). It is estimated as follows:
CV = (SD/ Mean) ˟ 100
Where SD = Standard Deviation
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Journal of Agriculture and Natural Resources (2021) 4(2): 63-74
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.3126/janr.v4i2.33657
Instability Index
To study the fluctuation or instability in any time series data, a simple analytical technique
instability index is very much useful. It is estimated as follows:
i. Parameter of a log-linear trend line is estimated for the variable (Yt) to which instability
is to be estimated
ii. If the parameter that is estimated is statistically significant, then the instability index
(IIN) is defined as
IIN = CV ˟ (1-r2)0.5
Where, CV = Coefficient of Variation
r2 = Coefficient of Determination
CV = (SD/ Mean) ˟ 100
Where SD = Standard Deviation
iii. If the estimated parameter is not significant in the regression equation, then the CV
itself is the instability index.
Production and Requirement Gap
Requirement = Production + Import -Export
Trade Specialization Index
Trade Specialization Index (TSI) is used to calculate the competitive position of millet in
Nepal. The formula used is as follows:
𝑁𝑥 − 𝑁𝑚
𝑇𝑆𝐼 =
𝑁𝑥 + 𝑁𝑚
Where,
TSI is Trade Specialization Index,
Nx is the value of millet exports from Nepal
Nm is the value of millet imports to Nepal
The value of this index has a range between -1 to + 1. If the value is between 0 to 1, then the
millet has strong competitiveness as an exporter. Instead, competitiveness is weak or inclined
as the importer, if the value is below 0 to -1.
TSI can be used to identify the position of the competitiveness of a commodity in trade and
divided into the following phases: (1) Phase introduction, in this phase, the value index is -1.00
to -0.50; (2) Phase import substitution, which is the index value between -0.51 to 0.00; (3)
Stage growth, is the value from 0.01 to 0.80; (4) Phase Maturity, is the range 0.81 to 1.00.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Production System and Usage in Food Culture
Finger millet is cultivated by smallholder farmers in all most all districts from the east to farwestern regions of hill and mountain ranging from 500 msl to 3100 msl in different agroecologies, and farming system, though it is grown in a small area in some parts of Terai below
500 msl (Baniya et al., 1992; Ghimire et al., 2017; 2020). It is mainly grown in rain-fed
conditions in the uplands as a sole crop or relay cropping with maize. Farmers have maintained
diverse traditional varieties of millet over a generation by cultivating, selecting, community
sharing, and conserving them based on their unique preferences for adaptation, yields,
livelihood, and cultural use. These include extra short duration variety such as Tinmase (grown
in 3 months) to open finger types (Nangre) and close and compact type (mudke) to samdi kodo
(white grained delicious finger millet variety). The major production domain, important
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varieties, and farmer preferred traits of finger millet with a diverse use of food culture and
farmer preferred attributes are briefly presented in Table 1.
The crop has multipurpose use from its use in main meals (Dhindo), flat chhappati roti to
different type’s modern food recipes such as pancake, multigrain breads, biscuits, cakes, selroti
to very useful livestock feeds. Finger millet has usage in diverse food culture and livelihood of
smallholder farmers in the hill and mountain. Finger millet flour is commonly used for making
dhindo, roti, and grain is used for making high quality traditionally fermented liquors called
Jhand or chhyang, tumba and preparing distilled liquor called raksi. The straw is used as an
important livestock feed in the hill and mountain during dry lean season. Recently finger millet
is being used in modern food culture as a nutritious multigrain bread, cakes, cookies, nimkin,
momo etc. There is increasing use of this crop in the daily life of the Nepalese people (Ghimire
et al., 2018).
Table 1: Production domains, important varieties, preferred traits and usage in food
culture
Production domains
Important Varieties
Farmer Preferred Traits
Usage in food culture
Middle Mountain of
far-west to the east
including a high
mountain of Karnali
Province cultivated in
rainfed uplands
without use of
external inputs
(chemical fertilizer
and pesticides).
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
-High yield
-Early maturity
-Disease tolerance
-Pest tolerant
-Drought tolerance
-Ease in processing
-Cooking quality
-Stay green nature of straw
-Dhindo (thick porridge)
- Chhapati/ flat Roti
-Haluwa, sweets
-Millet Soup (Khole)
-Home-made Liquor
(Jhand, Tomba, Rakshi)
-Modern food dishes
(multigrain bread,
pancake, biscuits,
nimkin, momo, cakes,
selroti)
- Straw as livestock feed
Jhype,
Mudke
Chulthe
Dalle
Lampate
Lurke
Chhatre
Batule
Rato kodo
Seto kodo
Dudhe
Lopre
Nangre
Tauke
Tinmase
Paudere
Source: Authors adaptation from various sources (Ghimire et al., 2017; 2020; Joshi et al., 2017)
Area, Production, and Productivity
Area, production, and yield of millet from 2009 to 2019 is shown in figure 1. The production
and yield showed an increasing trend while the area showed a decreasing trend. To date, only
five finger millet varieties have been released by the government of Nepal (SQCC, 2019) and
their productivity ranges from 2.4 to 3.3 t/ha. However average productivity is far below the
potential productivity. The study by Luitel et al. (2020) predicted significant shrinkage of
existing suitable finger millet areas with an increase in temperatures. Similarly, Zomer et al.
(2014) stated that climatic factors like drought, rise in maximum temperature, increasing erratic
pattern of rainfall, and the shift of bioclimatic zones in different elevations in Nepal may play
a role in the decline of a suitable area of finger millet. Labour constraint and processing
difficulty were the reasons for the farmers’ declining interest in finger millet cultivation in
Nepal (Devkota et al., 2016; Ghimire et al., 2017; Gauchan, 2019).
67
Area
Production
Yield
12
31
12
30
12
29
11
28
11
27
11
26
25
11
24
11
23
Hundreds
32
Yield (kg/ha)
x 10000
Area (ha) & Produciton (ton)
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ISSN: 2661-6270 (Print), ISSN: 2661-6289 (Online)
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3126/janr.v4i2.33657
10
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Year
Figure 1: Area, production, and productivity of millet in Nepal
As evident from the above figure 1 and recent data (MoALD, 2019), the yield of finger millet
is very low hovering around 1 mt/ ha as compared to about 3 mt /ha for major cereals like rice,
maize, and wheat. Hence, there are high prospects for increasing production and productivity
of this crop by the use of improved varieties, production technologies, and management
practices.
Millet area based on agro-ecology in Nepal is shown in figure 2. Among the different agroecology, the hill of Nepal covered 78 % followed by the mountain 19% and only 3% in terai
region. Western hill occupied the highest area followed by eastern hill and least in the farwestern hill. The highest area was observed in the central mountain followed by eastern
mountain and no area in the western mountain. The highest area was occupied in eastern terai
followed by central terai and least on mid-western terai (MoALMC, 2017). According to
Ghimire et al. (2020), 77% of millet produced in the hill and 20 % from mountain districts.
7,118
3%
51,008
19%
Mountain
Hills
Terai
205,470
78%
Figure 2: Area of millet in 2017 based on agro-ecology in Nepal
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Area (ha) & Production (ton)
x 10000
Province wise area and production of millet are shown in figure 3. The highest area and
production can be observed in Bagmati province while the least was observed in province no
two.
12
Area
Production
10
8
6
4
2
0
Provinces
Figure 3: Province wise average area and production of millet in Nepal
Thousands
Prodction and requirements (ton)
Production and Requirement
Production and requirements of millet in Nepal are illustrated in figure 4. In all the years, the
requirement is higher than production. An average of 14,402-ton millet is required in addition
to edible millet grain production in Nepal. Despite such importance, production and
consumption are decreasing as a result of, inter alia, the expanding availability of more
profitable crops, and a lack of awareness regarding its nutritional qualities by urban consumers,
and limited R&D dedicated to this crop (Pallante et al., 2016). One of the declining production
and productivity is also due to low financial return finger millet as compared to many cash
crops such as coffee which has 3.3 times higher return than for millet production in Nepal
(GoN, 2017).
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Requirements
Production
Figure 4: Production and requirements of millet in Nepal
69
25
450
400
20
Vallue NRs
350
300
15
250
200
10
Quantity Kg
500
Millions
Millions
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Import and Export
Millet import quantity and value are shown in figure 5. Millet value and quantity showed sharp
increasing trend up-to 2012-13 and thereafter quantity started declining some years while
increase slightly in some years but the value of import continue to increase gradually which
later declined after 2016. There was high variability after 2014 (Figure 5). The finger millet
import is imported mainly from India for liquor purposes without any linkage in the domestic
value chain (Gauchan et al., 2019).
150
100
5
50
0
Value
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
0
Quantity
Figure 5: Import of millet in Nepal
6
3
5
2.5
4
2
3
1.5
2
1
x 10000
3.5
Quantity Kg
Value NRs
Millions
Millet export quantity and value are shown in Figure 6. Millet value and quantity showed a
sharp increasing trend up-to 2014 and thereafter showed a declining trend. The decrease in the
export of millet is associated with the decrease in import of millet in Nepal. It can be assumed
that the millet export has reduced to home consumption and that leads to a decrease in import
also. However, scientific information to validate this is to be investigated in the future.
1
0.5
0
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Value
Quantity
Figure 6: Export of millet in Nepal
The study revealed that millet import value and millet production in Nepal are increasing at the
rate of 14.62 and 0.47 percent per annum respectively and significant at 5 percent level of
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significance (table 2). The growth rate of yield was 0.73 and significant at 1 percent level of
significance. Other variables such as the quantity of import, area, export quantity, export value,
and source seed production growth rate are not significant.
Table 2: Compound growth rate of millet area, production, yield, source seed
production, import & export quantity and value in Nepal from 2009 to 2019
Intercept
CGR
R2
P-value
Area (ha)
12.52
-0.27
0.27
0.101
Production (ton)
12.60
0.47*
0.47
0.020
Yield (Kg/ha)
6.99
0.73**
0.80
0.000
Source seed (ton)+
0.69
3.15
0.11
0.414
Import Quantity (Kg)
16.58
-2.21
0.06
0.461
Import Value (NRs)
18.45
14.62*
0.46
0.022
Export Quantity (Kg)+
10.52
-11.89
0.16
0.320
Particulars
Export Value (NRs)+
14.15
-4.70
0.03
0.677
Note: * and ** denotes significance at 5 and 1 percent level of significance respectively. + indicates data from
2012 to 2019
The coefficient of variation and instability index of finger millet is illustrated in table 3. The
result showed that the highest CV was observed in export quantity followed by an export value,
import value, import quantity, and source seed production. Least was observed in area,
production, and yield. The highest instability index was observed in export value followed by
an export quantity, import value, import quantity, and source seed production. A lower index
was observed in yield, area, and production respectively.
Table 3: Coefficient of variation and instability index of area, production, yield, source
seed production, import and export of millets in Nepal from 2009 to 2019
Particulars
Area (ha)
Production (ton)
Yield (Kg/ha)
Source seed (ton)+
Import Quantity (Kg)
Import Value (NRs)
Export Quantity (Kg)+
Export Value (NRs)+
Note: + indicates data from 2012 to 2019
CV
1.75
2.23
2.74
21.50
26.16
49.55
66.18
63.82
IIN
1.49
1.62
1.22
20.24
25.34
36.38
60.53
62.83
Table 4: Trade specialization index of millet from 2012 to 2019
S.N.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Total
Average
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
TSI
-0.996
-0.989
-0.985
-0.991
-0.994
-0.997
-0.994
-0.993
-7.939
-0.992
The trade specialization index (TSI) of millet in Nepal from 2012 to 2019 is shown in table 4.
The average value of TSI was found as -0.992 which indicates the strong negative value of the
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index between the range of 0 to -1 so that the millet has very weak competitiveness or inclined
as an importer. TSI can also be used to identify the competitive position of a commodity in
trade. Since the index value lies between -1 to -0.50, millet is in the introduction phase. There
are still high prospects by putting increasing efforts to promote trade of millet by increasing
production, productivity for its commercialization by creating nutrition and health value of the
products.
CONCLUSION
Finger millet is an important food crop for smallholder poor and vulnerable farmers in the hill
and mountain of Nepal. About three-fourth area of finger millet is in the hill indicating
important crops for food and nutrition security of the hill farmers. Despite this, the area of
millet is declining with stagnant in production and yield. But the import value is increasing
rapidly with 14 % per annum in the last decade. This indicates that current production has not
been able to meet the increasing demand for millet products in the country. Presently the
country has a higher CV and IIN in imports and exports indicating a high fluctuation in the
imports and exports of millet in the country. The trade specialization index found as -0.992
indicates millet is in the introduction phase. This indicates that there is still a high prospect by
putting increasing efforts to promote trade of millet by increasing production, productivity for
its commercialization by creating nutrition and health value of the products. Considering the
low productivity of the crop hovering around 1 mt as compared to an average of 3 mt per
hectare for major cereals like rice, maize, and wheat, there are high prospects for increasing
production and productivity of this crop by the use of improved varieties, production
technologies and management practices. Hence, there is an urgent need to increase
productivity with increasing investment in research and development to reduce increasing
imports and make the country self-reliant in millet production. Moreover, because of their high
nutrition value and ability to grow in low input marginal hill slopes and rain-fed terraces, millet
can be potential crops for improving food and nutrition security of smallholder farmers in the
hill and the mountain in the future. This will, however, require increased priority and policy
support for promoting this crop in the rain-fed marginal lands of hill and mountain.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors are thankful to Ministries, National Planning Commission, Trade and Export
Promotion Center, Centre Bureau of Statistics, and NARC for providing relevant statistics.
Authors' Contributions
S Gairhe design the research work and collected data and drafted a manuscript. D Gauchan and
KP Timsina elaborated the sections and provided inputs, critical feedback and comments. The
final form of the manuscript was approved by all authors through rigorous review.
Conflict of Interest
The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest regarding the publication of this paper.
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