THE ROLE OF AFGHANISTAN IN CENTRAL ASIA: RISKS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS OVERVIEW

ISSN 1563-0285, еISSN 2618-1215 Халықаралық қатынастар және халықаралық құқық сериясы №2 (106). 2024 https://bulletin-ir-law.kaznu.kz/ https://doi.org/10.26577/IRILJ.2024.v106.i2-06 IRSTI 11.25.42 Ghulam Rasool * , K.S. Mukhtarova , Bilal Naqeeb Jan Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Kazakhstan, Almaty * e-mail: ghulam.rasool@scholars.usindh.edu.pk THE ROLE OF AFGHANISTAN IN CENTRAL ASIA: RISKS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS OVERVIEW In the International landscape Afghanistan encompasses a faltering polity with several arguments that support this claim. The state is known as the buffer state and a landlocked country, which is currently under the umbrella of the Taliban regime. The Central Asian Countries are specifically apprehensive and nervous regarding the uncovered system in Afghanistan, notably considering the withdrawal of international powers in 2014 and then in 2021. Central Asia exemplifies an intricate interplay of risks, challenges, and future. Similarly, this research paper highlights the geopolitical landscape of Afghanistan within the context of Central Asia, emphasizing both the current risks and potential opportunities for the region’s prospects. Besides, it also investigates the challenges and critical rebukes of modern international relations in Central Asia, while exploring avenues for the progress of the scenario examined in the proposed study. However, the researcher employed a descriptive method of inquiry, collecting secondary data from meritorious journals. The research study would be wholesome in analyzing alternatives of Afghanistan and Central Asian ties addressing regional challenges for modern international relations. Thus, the researchers would base new avenues for upcoming related domains in scholarly research. In this way, the present study is limited to investigating Afghanistan in central Asia, navigating its influence with the risk and prospects. It plays a key role in underscoring Afghanistan’s new journey with the Taliban, which aims to globalize the world under new leadership. Keywords: Afghanistan, Central Asiа, South Asian region, risks, prospects. Гулам Расул*, Қ.С. Мұхтарова, Билал Накиб Жан Әл-Фараби атындағы қазақ Ұлттық Университеті, Қазақстан, Алматы қ. *e-mail: ghulam.rasool@scholars.usindh.edu.pk Ауғанстанның Орталық Азиядағы рөлі: тәуекелдер мен болашағына шолу Халықаралық аренада Ауғанстан тұрақсыз мемелекеттік құрылым екендігін растайтын бірнеше дәйектемелер бар. Бұл мемлекет буферлік мемлекет және қазіргі уақытта Талибан режимі басқаратын теңізге шыға алмайтын ел ретінде белгілі. Орталық Азия елдері Ауғанстандағы ашылған жүйеге, әсіресе 2014 жылы, содан кейін 2021 жылы халықаралық күштердің шығарылуын ескере отырып, ерекше алаңдайды және алаңдаушылық білдіреді. Орталық Азия тәуекелдердің, сын-қатерлердің және болашақтың күрделі өзара әрекеттесуіне мысалы болып табылады. Сол сияқты, бұл зерттеу жұмысы Ауғанстанның Орталық Азия контекстіндегі геосаяси ландшафтын атап өтіп, ағымдағы тәуекелдерді де, аймақтың болашағы үшін әлеуетті мүмкіндіктерді де көрсетеді. Сонымен қатар, ол Орталық Азиядағы қазіргі халықаралық қатынастардың проблемалары мен маңызды мәселелерін зерттейді және ұсынылған зерттеуде қарастырылған сценарийдің даму жолдарын зерттейді. Зерттеушілер қосымша мәліметтер мен сарапшылардың пікірлерін жинау арқылы зерттеуде сипаттамалық әдіс қолданды. Зерттеу қазіргі халықаралық қатынастардың аймақтық мәселелерін шешуге бағытталған Ауғанстан мен Орталық Азия арасындағы қатынастарды дамытудың балама нұсқаларын талдау үшін пайдалы болады. Осылайша, зерттеу болашақ ғылыми зерттеулер салалары үшін жаңа мүмкіндіктер жасайды. Сонымен қатар, бұл зерттеу Ауғанстанды Орталық Азияда тәуекелдер мен перспективаларды ескере отырып, оның әсерін салыстыра отырып қарастырады. Ауғанстан Талибанмен бірге жаңа жолға баса назар аударуда шешуші рөл атқарады, оның мақсаты жаңа басшылықпен халықаралық бастамаларға қатысу болып табылады. Түйін сөздер: Ауғанстан, Орталық Азия, оңтүстіказиаттық аймақ, тәуекелдер, болашағы. 62 © 2024 Al-Farabi Kazakh National University Ghulam Rasool et al. Гулам Расул* , К.С. Мухтарова, Билал Накиб Жан Казахский национальный университет имени Аль-Фараби, Казахстан, г. Алматы *e-mail: ghulam.rasool@scholars.usindh.edu.pk Роль Афганистана в Центральной Азии: обзор рисков и перспективы на будущее На международной арене Афганистан представляет собой нестабильное государственное устройство, имеющее несколько аргументов в поддержку этого утверждения. Это государство известно как буферное государство, не имеющее выхода к морю, которое в настоящее время находится под управлением режима Талибана. Страны Центральной Азии особенно обеспокоены и выражают опасения по поводу раскрытой системы в Афганистане, особенно учитывая вывод международных сил в 2014 году, а затем в 2021 году. Центральная Азия является примером сложного взаимодействия рисков, вызовов и будущего. Аналогичным образом, в данной исследовательской работе освещается геополитический ландшафт Афганистана в контексте Центральной Азии, подчеркивая как текущие риски, так и потенциальные возможности для перспектив региона. Кроме того, в нем также вызовы и критические проблемы современных международных отношений в Центральной Азии, а также исследуются пути развития сценария, рассмотренного в предлагаемом исследовании. Исследователи применили описательный метод исследования, собрав вторичные данные и мнения экспертов. Исследование будет полезным для анализа альтернативных вариантов развития отношений между Афганистаном и Центральной Азией, направленных на решение региональных проблем современных международных отношений. Таким образом, исследование создает новые возможности для будущих смежных областей научных исследований. Таким образом, настоящее исследование обхватает Афганистан в Центральную Азию, сопоставлением его влияния с учетом рисков и перспектив. Афганистан играет ключевую роль в подчеркивании нового пути вместе с Талибаном, целью которого выступает участие в международных инициативах под новым руководством. Ключевые слова: Афганистан, Центральная Азия, южноазиатский регион, риски, перспективы. Introduction Afghanistan is located at the crossroads of South Asia and Central Asia generally considered part of both regions, as it connects the geographical and cultural divide. However, it shares borders with countries typically considered part of Central Asia, such as Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. Often, it is categorized in the geopolitical position in South Asia because of its historical linkages with the Indian subcontinent and its membership in regional organizations like the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). In the meantime, it is a country in Central Asia that has long faced challenges like instability and geopolitical issues (Masaulov, 2013). Its location at the crossroads of Central Asia makes these challenges and risks extend beyond its borders, affecting the wider region. The country’s stability directly influences neighboring Central Asian countries like Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan (Sarwari, 2024). Historically, Afghanistan has been marked by political turmoil and external interventions, creating a complex geopolitical landscape. It’s been a focal point for international actors, including neighboring countries and global powers. While it was once known as a buffer state and failed state, it now poses risks and challenges for Central Asia. The recent withdrawal of US forces in 2021 altered perceptions, leading to reduced violence, albeit with concerns as the Taliban confronts insurgencies (Hillevi, 2022). Of particular concern is the Taliban’s harboring of foreign militants, exemplified by figures such as the killing of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri. Similarly, the research paper seeks to illuminate the geopolitical landscape of Afghanistan within the context of Central Asia, accentuating both the current risks and potential opportunities for the region’s prospects. It also investigates the challenges and critical rebukes of modern relations in Central Asia, while exploring avenues for the progress of the scenario examined in the study. It adopts a descriptive approach, collecting secondary data from credible and authoritative sources to besmear an insightful picture of the region’s dynamics. The proposed research aims to reframe the existing narrative of Talibanization and enrich established discourses related to Afghanistan. The outcomes anticipate to influences on existing literature based on Afghanistan in Central Asia, presenting a more resonant insight into the geopolitical terrain of the ongoing era. Materials and methods The methods of this research entwines a systematic ambition to determine tricky issues in a 63 The role of afghanistan in Central Asia: risks and future prospects overview structured technique. It encompasses merely inquiry and exploration aimed at addressing specific queries (Khatti et al., 2022). According to materials, it serves as a gauge for evaluating methods and rebuking the examining approaches. Likewise, stringent analysis yields enduring insights grounded in robust data sources. An effective research methodology ensures problem elucidation and validates findings through a comprehensive literature review, an indispensable aspect of scholarly inquiry. Concerning to the proposed study, the researcher embraced a descriptive process for the examination. In this way, it relates Afghanistan in Central Asia, highlighting the risks and challenges. The domain of the study is linked to Afghanistan in terms of the Intra-political scenario of modern international relations. The justification for picking this subject derives from the lack of scholarly attention explained above in the problem statement. Besides, the studies have also demonstrated inaccuracies in the Afghani perspective. However, the method acquired and confirmed as well immersed in the proper data with accurate references. About data, the researcher involved the secondary techniques of organizing data, collecting from the most compatible and unpretentious sources, including reliable research journals. Research relevance The relevancy of this research is centered to review to existing body of different literature perspectives to highlight in the proposed research. Understanding the spiky and scornful dynamics of the Central Asian stataes is crucial for global stability and security, specifically with a focus on Afghanistan. However, Afghanistan’s crossroads in Central Asia is vital, yet loaded with risks and challenges delineated by the present government of the Taliban. The landscape of Afghanistan has experienced significant modifications with the inception of the new Taliban regime, notching a key theme in risk growth and opening innovative phases of relations. At its essence, the research study depicts a strategic partnership between Afghanistan and Central Asia, stimulating risks and future collaboration and regional connectivity in the region (Sarwari, 2024). This strategic location of Afghanistan improves geopolitical preference while introducing opportunities for economic integration and regional cooperation (Masaulov, 2013). Simultaneously, resilient governance systems, transparency mechanisms, and stakeholder attention are crucial to managing circumstances 64 regarding accountability and securing the effective implementation of Afghanistan within the region. Meanwhile, strategic collaborations with international stakeholders and regional concerns would enrich the stability of Afghanistan and promote greater cooperation in zones such as trade facilitation, infrastructure blossoming, and capacity establishment. This research study would suggest policymakers assume a holistic strategy that offsets imperatives with socio-political respects in navigating Afghanistan’s journey with Central Asia. Thus, the research discoveries of the understudy would necessitate an examination of Afghanistan in Central Asian discourses, highlighting the risks presented by a precisely planned framework. The recommendations emerging from the proposed investigation would trace a strategic pathway for attaching to the methodologies of scholarly analysis. Accordingly, the study would accentuate a main role in reaffirming its scholarly pertinence. Furthermore, the purview of the offered research would confine concerted exertions to employ Afghanistan concerning threats under the diplomacy of the Taliban and in the future. Research gape The Afghanistan signifies an essential chapter in the historical landscape of the Central Asia cruise. Basing the voyage of Afghanistan with Central Asian region mandates geostrategic forethought, inclusive methods, and vital collaborations. It includes the geographical shift with the central Asian region, presenting exceptional options for security threats, development of extremism, trade expansion, and regional connectivity in the South Asian bloc as a flagship undertaking under diplomacy and the question of danger (Masaulov, 2013). Yet, amidst the pledges lie tough risks, challenges, and prospects including socioeconomic differences, environmental problems, and geopolitical anxieties (Sarwari, 2024). Understanding the dynamics of deepening questions related to Afghanistan in Central Asia is crucial for the Intra-political scenario and development in the region, reshaping the broader geopolitical and geographical dynamics within the interplay of political and international grounds. For instance, scholars in the domain of Afghanistan have narrated various dilemmas of the research within Central Asia (Masaulov, 2013: Hartman, 2016: Modebadze, 2022: and Nylen et al., 2023). In a similar context, the understudied literature has focused on the politics of international powers from several angles of the Inra-Political and economic circumstances Ghulam Rasool et al. (Gul Farhad, 2015: Khatti et al., 2022: Saragih, 2023: and Sarwari, 2024). Apart from all, there is a conspicuous absence of the Afghani perspective among the varicolored annals elucidated by various studies. This research gap focuses on the implications, including the discourse surrounding Afghanistan in the Central Asian region. To bridge such disparities, problems, and gaps, this study aims to highlight Afghanistan in Central Asia, highlighting the risks and future landscape. In this way, the research study would provide new insights for upcoming researchers to suffice the lacuna and pave a path in the future. Hypothesis/research questions Based on the above research gap, this research study presents the following objects to highlight the findings of the proposed discourses. 1. To highlight the scenario of Afghanistan within Central Asian context To examine the risks of Afghanistan for Central Asia 3. To analyze future position of Afghanistan within Central Asian context Literature Review According to the research of Masaulov (2013), uncertainties and risks associated with the evolving political situation in Central Asia are the backdrop of expansions in Afghanistan. The outcomes highlight the interconnectedness of regional security dynamics and the potential for instability originating from the buffer state. However, the focal point enhances cooperation among Central Asian shapes to mitigate common security threats. McCauley (2016) offers an extensive examination of the geopolitical, socioeconomic status, and cultural components that have contributed to Afghanistan and its Central Asian neighbors. The study illustrates the complex previous of this region, featuring an amalgamation of native advancements and external factors, spanning from the ancient Silk Road trade to contemporary geopolitical disputes. With great care, McCauley examines the impact of Soviet and postSoviet policy, highlighting the significant changes and continuing challenges in social integration, economic expansion, and governing. Likewise, the study investigates the complicated relationships that exist between regional customs and the wider global circumstances, with emphasis on the implications of transnational networks and the global superpowers The region displayed amazing perseverance and adjustment, even in the face of periods of incredible instability and violence, according to key research studies. Moreover, the thesis of Gul Farhad (2015) furnishes insights into the dynamics of the unity regime formed in Afghanistan after the 2014 presidential election, which shows the complexities of power-sharing collections and the challenges of control in a delicate state. In this way, the study (Omirzhanov, Y., Alpysbek, M.B., 2017) explores the role of social networks in supporting civil society in Afghanistan, causing nuanced understandings, and the scenario. Henceforth, the research outcomes accentuate the prospective of social mobilization to promote grassroots armament, sharing information, and shared deeds. Simultaneously, (Hillevi, 2022) research probes the implications of the American withdrawal from Afghanistan for regional security dynamics in the region within the international scenario. It focuses the narratives learned from the departure process and the fresh avenues for international plan in Afghanistan. However, the (Modebadze, 2022) exploration analyzes the importance of the Taliban’s retrieval to power in Afghanistan for international instability and security dilemmas accordingly. Thus, it bases on the strategies for softening the risks, rebukes and challenges related with the Taliban regime and fostering stability in Afghanistan and beyond the borders. Hereafter, the thesis by Saragih (2023) acumens the consequences of the security challenges on regional immovability and the potential for spillover effects beyond the South and Central Asian borders. Unlike, the security encounters and risks emerged in South Asia ensuing the transition of the Afghan regime in 2021-2022 heightened instability in the region due to aspects such as the Taliban resurgence and the withdrawal of international web in the scenario. Simultaneously, the research of (Khatti et al., 2022) concentrated on the situation in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) within bilateral relations and the case of Baluchistan. The study conferred the historical context and major events shaping contemporary ties of international diplomacy. Merely, the research of (Nylen et al., 2023) explored the experiences of Afghan evacuees during operation allies’ refuge and operation allies’ welcome. It was more far-reaching concern of Afghanistan within the regime which is core question of Taliban regime. According to the humanitarian challenges of evacuees and the necessity for cogent resettlement focused on clearance mechanisms in Afghanistan. Concurrently, (Sarwari, 2024) research concentrates on internal aspects exploiting Afghanistan’s emergence and survival as a nationstate. It underscores the role of internal divisions, governance challenges, and external interventions in 65 The role of afghanistan in Central Asia: risks and future prospects overview Afghanistan’s struggle for stability and sovereignty. The discussion delves into the complexities of statebuilding efforts and the imperative of addressing internal grievances to foster national cohesion and resilience. Consequently, the above understudies infused a thorough understanding of Afghanistan diplomacy within the regional dynamics, presenting useful insights into the socio-political, economic, and environmental extents. These studies have a variety of discussions and lack of risks and challenge with specifically Afghanistan but equip details on the opportunities, dangers, and alternative stances surrounding Central Asian’s enterprising ties and connectivity initiative in the observed world. Results and discussions The research results encompass to the Afghanistan landscape in Central Asia, highlighting the core exploration of new discourses navigating the risks and challenges for the region. Further, it focused on prospects and how global powers perceive the present changes. Similarly, superpowers are interested in Afghanistan due to its strategic location and abundant natural resources. As a result, Afghanistan particularly has shifted its focus elsewhere, projecting the collaboration with Central Asian regime. While Afghanistan has strengthened economy then, it has also exposed exposure. These findings are highlighted below: Scenario of Afghanistan Central Asian countries and Afghanistan have long history of mutual collaboration and good relations. These areas have shared political, economic, and cultural links over the ages, which has strengthened their feeling of solidarity and camaraderie. Trade and cultural contact between Afghanistan and Central Asia were greatly aided by the ancient Silk Road, which tied East Asia with the Mediterranean. This dynamic network of trade routes enabled the flow of products, concepts, and information across civilizations, acting as a bridge. Historical documents illustrate the depth of diplomatic ties and alliances between Afghanistan and Central Asian nations. The Sogdians, Bactrians, and Khwarazmians were among the Central Asian nations with which ancient Afghan dynasties, like the Kushan Empire, shared close relations. Due to these relationships, trade expanded (Starr, 2005). The domestic milieu paints Afghanistan as a faltering polity with numerous contentions that buttress this assertion. The Central Asian 66 Countries are specifically apprehensive regarding the unfolding scenario in Afghanistan, notably considering the withdrawal of international powers in 2014 and then in 2023 (Saragih, 2023). Likewise, irrefutable evidence exists of 1.3 million votes being falsified during the 2009 elections, thus indicating a lack of trust among Afghans in the prevailing governance structure (Gul Farhad, 2015). The effectiveness of the administrative framework leaves much to be expected. Despite boasting 25 ministries, the armed forces comprise merely 300,000 to 400,000 personnel (Masaulov, 2013), yet substantive progress in ensuring security, instituting efficient governance, or charting new developmental trajectories remains elusive. The Afghan administration grapples with insufficient revenue to meet expenditures, significantly impeding the nation’s progress and fostering dependence on precarious external investments. Similarly, the genesis of opiate production and dissemination is not traced back to Afghan initiatives. Rather, it was instigated in the 1980s by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) due to financial constraints while supporting the mujahideen in combatting Soviet forces. Thus, curtailing opium cultivation and narcotics production poses formidable challenges for the Afghan populace and government (Sarwari, 2024). Lastly, despite possessing considerable mineral wealth, ventures related to its exploitation cannot materialize within 1-2 years, thereby deferring any prospects of revenue generation from natural resources. Currently, 36% of the Afghan populace persists below the poverty threshold (Sarwari, 2024). In the regional realm of South Asia, Pakistan emerges as an active participant in Afghan affairs. The construction of 20,000 madrasahs in northern Waziristan serves as a bastion for organized militant factions operating across Afghanistan and Pakistan (Masaulov, 2013). However, Afghanistan considers the whimsy that the dispute within borders supports the Taliban and potentially presents a danger to Indian borders, Eastern China, and the Central Asian States, where myriad radical coalitions already exist. Likewise, Russia encounters the crosshairs of the Taliban, with possible exposures originating from collaborations between Pakistani and Afghan Islamist extremists like the Taliban. In this way, diplomatic cooperation between Pakistan, Russia, China, and Iran proposes routes for curtailing reliance on radical blocs, showing a more viable recourse than strengthening the borders of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan to stave off the invasion of extremist elements into the region accordingly. Ghulam Rasool et al. Risks The exclusive landscape of Afghanistan presents high risks that expand beyond far reaching borders, influencing the wider Central Asian states connected with the Afghani land. Similarly, Afghanistan has encountered persistent security risks, comprises of internal disputes, insurgencies, and the existence of extremist groups in the country. Meanwhile, the instability potentially overflowed into neighboring Central Asian countries, affecting regional security. The substantial fact in order to evaluate the risks is the growth of radicalization and the spread of fanatic ideologies (Modebadze, 2022). Mainly, Afghanistan’s closeness to Central Asian countries like Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan heightens concerns about the diffusion of radical thought and potential recruitment of individuals sympathetic to the Taliban’s cause. According to the recent research of (Sarwari, 2024), the insurgency contributes to the displacement of populations, leading to a refugee crisis that could strain the resources and stability of neighboring countries (Nylen et al., 2023). Likewise, as seen in the past, conflict-induced migration has the potential to fuel social tensions, disrupt local economies, and strain already limited infrastructure in Central Asian countries. In this way, the refugee crisis may not only pose a humanitarian risk but also create conditions conducive to the infiltration of militants across borders, further jeopardizing regional security. It is observed in the warfare of 90s. Besides, the Taliban’s historical engagement in the opium trade enhances the risk and challenge of the propagation of illegal drugs in the wider Central Asian states. Mainly, Afghanistan produces opium, besides the instability and security risk occasioned by the Taliban insurgency could accelerate the overflow of narcotics into neighboring countries especially towards Central Asia (Masaulov, 2013). Yet, it fuels managed crime but donates to addiction, and social disturbance presents a direct risk as a threat to public health and unsafety in Central Asia accordingly. The current leadership of Afghanistan offers a risk to the Central Asian countries, just like the challenges it presents in the similar context. Hence the government is extremist and linkage with the Taliban legacy, a symbolic example of the challenge has in the contrasting cultural interactions. While Central Asian regions mainly embraced Russian culture and language during the Soviet period (yet), Afghanistan differs diplomatically leaning towards a cultural exchange shaped by American influence. This transformation, depicting traditional Arab customs indicative of feudal tribes, charms remarkable societal composition. In this way, the cultural consequences determine the blends twists, and turns of geopolitical links and begin potential exposures in the Central Asian states. It underscores the main aim for slight strategic cooperation and regional techniques. In a similar milieu, Central Asia encounters several hardships and challenges mapping the socio-economic and geopolitical landscape. Nevertheless, the 2017 terrorist episodes in Almaty functioned as a blunt wake-up call of the region’s vulnerability, necessitating influential counter-terrorism dimensions (Omirzhanov, Y., Alpysbek, M.B., 2017). Moreover, the excessive dependence on natural resources, notably oil and gas, renders Central Asian economies exposed to global call fluctuations. Hence, it is crucial to broaden the economy, alleviating the risks related to reliance on a single sector for longterm tranquility and stability. Similarly, on May 13, 2005, demonstrations exploded in Andijan, Uzbekistan, showing governance issues, corruption, and political instability in the country (Hartman, 2016). Historical uncertainties and border conflicts among Central Asian nations, exemplified by the Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan variances in 2012, stress the significance of promoting regional cooperation to manage similar risks and challenges. In a similar context, the Qosh Tepa Canal is also new discourse which has created the new tensions in Central Asia. It takes water from the Amu Darya which is longest river and backbone for the region. This risk is highly intensive in shape of the water crises. However, The COVID-19 pandemic has spread uncovered vulnerabilities in healthcare systems across the Central Asian region, accentuating the critical need to address health infrastructure, vaccine issuance, and pandemic preparedness for future hurdles. Overall, Central Asia faces complex risks and challenges, notably in the face of potential influence from a Taliban Afghani government in the meantime. Besides, steering this sophistication mandates a future-oriented, cooperative approach to facilitate strength and bearable blossoming in the region. Prospective position Central Asian countries and Afghanistan have a long Background of mutual collaboration and Historical relations and shared experiences have paved a path for Afghanistan and Central Asian nations to preserve an upbeat attitude and strong bilateral relations (Laruelle, 2013). The rise of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan during August 2021 marked a consequential frock in the 67 The role of afghanistan in Central Asia: risks and future prospects overview political landscape in Central Asia fraught with the withdrawal of U.S. armies. However, the withdrawal from the international bloc significances lacked an exhaustive strategy, leaving only a vague silhouette on the political map for the departure (Hillevi, 2022). In this way, conjectures about Afghanistan’s prospective post-withdrawal prevailed, expecting, it would no longer be a focal fact of geopolitical concentration. However, manifold stakeholders, including the European powers, China in Asia, and Russia in Central Asia seek to catch Afghanistan’s authority as vital to the geopolitical magnets (Nylen et al., 2023). China and Russia, while not desiring prevalent roles, were enthusiastic about upholding power and command in Afghanistan for bases and reasons running from combating drug trafficking to snatching mineral reserves and organizing separatist stirs. Afghanistan’s strategic surroundings at the crossroads of the Central and South Asian region and the Middle East borders have historically made it a pivotal player in international connections, constantly acting as a parallel or unifying power among major powers in globalization (Khatti et al., 2022). The Taliban’s revival was fueled by the existence of external foes, reminiscent of the mujahideen’s antagonism during the Soviet occupation of the country. Nevertheless, ingrained ethnic and tribal rivalries within Afghanistan present long-term risks to the stability of peace in any governing authority. Afghanistan’s dethroned governance setup, characterized by tribal and group administration, has historically opposed federalization drudgeries, contributing to enduring fluctuation (Gul Farhad, 2015). Meanwhile, Afghanistan’s role in regional dynamics through Central Asia, including drug trafficking, Islamic extremism, and territorial conflicts, outperforms the existence of foreign powers and will last beyond the future. Likewise, the Pashtun tribal territories, ethnic tensions in the northern areas, and the country’s natural resources continue to be sources of conflict and leverage for regional controls. Henceforth, the U.S., while retaining a military sight, is anticipated to gradually decline its engagement in the region, turning its focus to addressing competition between Russia and China to welcome and overcome in the country. Lastly, Afghanistan’s future remains uncertain and skeptical through the stability, with the geopolitical substance likely to develop amidst the turning regional landscape and the interests of major superpowers. 68 Conclusion Afghanistan is a state of discourses in academic sphere, which relates to both South Asian region and Central Asian region. This country has seen forty years of war in accordance with different aspects of modern international relations. The research results depict that Afghanistan in Central Asia possesses resilient integration, emerging as a principal component in the country’s current infrastructure ventures via the Taliban regime. This examination additionally means that Afghanistan possesses both landscapes, South Asia and Central Asia sharing a special bond often referred to as the global discourse, indicating the bilateral concerns. Consequently, the research study highlighted a key part in reaffirming the intellectual relevance. Furthermore, the purview of the proffered examination would encompass concerted toils to utilize Afghanistan concerning threats under the diplomacy of the Taliban and in the future. Focusing the significance of the ties and modern discourses, the present study posed the scenario of Afghanistan, risks, and challenges for Central Asia by shepherding significant investigations in the literature review. In this case, the dilemma of the politics and governmental phases of the ruling has sometime changed. Hence, the proposed investigation conclusion would pave the right path to narrative building for Afghanistan-related studies emphasizing the threats offered by a specifically designed framework. The recommendations, occurring from the underpinned examination would outline a strategic route for connecting to the procedures of erudite analysis. However, it recommends examining manifold nuisances within the dilemma of Afghanistan in Central Asia. Thus, the research would base new avenues for upcoming related domains in scholarly research. In this way, the present study is limited to investigating Afghanistan in central Asia, navigating its influence with the risk and prospects. It plays a key role in underscoring Afghanistan’s new journey with the Taliban, which aims to globalize the world under new leadership. Thus, the implications for the future, emphasize how crucial Afghanistan is to Central Asia. As it develops uninterruptedly, it will overhaul Afghanistan’s stability and deepen its alignment with the region, the Middle East, and Europe in the coming decades. Hence, it encompasses broad ramifications for regional geopolitics, trade relations, and infrastructure Ghulam Rasool et al. evolution. Similarly, when Afghanistan uses its strategic position within the region, it will move further exploration of the complex geopolitical environment in the future while maximizing the economic opportunities presented by improved connectivity. References Gul Farhad, A. (2015). Understanding the Unity Government of Afghanistan: Case of 2014 Presidential Election (Doctoral dissertation, Department of International and Comparative Politics). Hartman, J. W. (2016). The May 2005 Andijan uprising: what we know. Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, Paul H. 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Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Авторлар туралы мәлімет: Расул Гулам Мухаммад Харун – PhD докторант, әл-Фараби атындағы Қазақ ұлттық университеті, Халықаралық қатынастар факультеті (Қазақстан, Алматы, e-mail: ghulam.rasool@scholars.usindh.edu.pk) Мухтарова Карлығаш Сапаровна – экономика ғылымдарының докторы, Әл-Фараби атындағы Қазақ ұлттық университетінің профессоры (Қазақстан, Алматы, e-mail: karlusha777mukhtarova@gmail.com) Накиб Джан Билал – PhD студенті, әл-Фараби атындағы Қазақ ұлттық университеті, Халықаралық қатынастар факультеті (Қазақстан, Алматы, e-mail: b.badloon@gmail.com) Information about authors: Rasul Gulam Mukhammad Kharun – PhD student, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Faculty of International Relations (Kazakhstan, Almaty, e-mail: ghulam.rasool@scholars.usindh.edu.pk) Mukhtarova, Karlygash Saparovna – doctor of Economic Sciences, professor of Al-Farabi Kazakh National University (Kazakhstan, Almaty, e-mail: karlusha777mukhtarova@gmail.com) Naqeeb Jan Bilal – PhD student, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Faculty of International Relations (Kazakhstan, Almaty, e-mail: b.badloon@gmail.com) Previously sent January 15, 2024. Re-registered February 5, 2024. Accepted May 17, 2024. 69