- (vi) Deferred tax assets (DTAs) Deferred tax assets (DTAs) arise when a bank incurs losses as a result of exogenous factors and is allowed to carry forward the loss to be set off against future gains when its tax obligations are calculated. Deferred tax must be Economic Bulletin July 2016 APPENDIX gradually deducted from capital (ECB Regulation 2016/445), except for that part that does not rely on future profitability (deferred tax credit – DTC), and is given a weight of 100%. This arrangement creates uncertainties regarding the structure of banks’ capital, as half of total capital of the Greek banking sector (close to EUR 20 billion) is accounted for by deferred tax, which is not a permanent source of capital, has a reduced loss-absorbing capacity and may cease to exist in the absence of future profitability (see IMF Country Report No.
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- 16/130, May 2016, Box 3). (vii) Leverage ratio As a supplementary measure to monitor excessive leveraging, the new capital requirements framework introduces the leverage ratio, which is calculated in combination with the riskweighted capital adequacy ratio. The capital adequacy ratio depends on the riskiness of a bank’s assets: the more a bank invests in risky assets, the higher the capital requirement. By contrast, the capital requirement arising from the leverage ratio is independent of whether the bank invests in safe or risky assets: banks are required to maintain a certain level of capital irrespective of the riskiness of their portfolios. If a bank invests in low-risk assets, the capital adequacy ratio may be lower than the leverage ratio and the latter may be more of a constraint for the bank, and vice versa in the opposite case. In any case, the introduction of a second method for calculating leverage entails additional uncertainty for banks.
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- Albani Maria, Zonzilos Nicholas and Bragoudakis Zacharias, “An operational framework for the short-term forecasting of inflationâ€, No. 29, October 2007.
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Anastasatos Tasos and Manou Constantina, “Speculative attacks on the drachma and the changeover to the euroâ€, No. 31, November 2008.
- ARTICLES PUBLISHED IN PREVIOUS ISSUES OF THE ECONOMIC BULLETIN Economic Bulletin July 2016 Dellas Harris, “ECB monetary policy strategy and macroeconomic volatility in Greeceâ€, No. 13, July 1999.
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- Asimakopoulos Ioannis, Lalountas Dionysis and Siriopoulos Constantinos, “The determinants of firm survival in the Athens Exchangeâ€, No. 31, November 2008.
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- Athanasoglou Panayiotis and Brissimis Sophocles, “The effect of mergers and acquisitions on bank efficiency in Greeceâ€, No. 22, January 2004.
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Athanasoglou Panayiotis, Asimakopoulos Ioannis and Georgiou Evangelia, “The effect of merger and acquisition announcement on Greek bank stock returnsâ€, No. 24, January 2005.
Athanasoglou Panayiotis, Asimakopoulos Ioannis and Siriopoulos Konstantinos, “External financing, growth and capital structure of the firms listed on the Athens Exchangeâ€, No. 26, January 2006.
Balfoussia Hiona, “Stock market integration: the Athens Exchange in the European financial marketâ€, No. 30, May 2008.
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Bragoudakis G. Zaharias, “An empirical investigation of the relationship between unit labour cost and price developments: The case of Greeceâ€, No. 40, December 2014.
Bragoudakis Zacharias and Panagiotou Stelios, “Determinants of the receipts from shipping services: the case of Greeceâ€, No. 34, September 2010.
Bragoudakis Zacharias and Sideris Dimitris, “Do retail gasoline prices adjust symmetrically to crude oil price changes? The case of the Greek oil marketâ€, No. 37, December 2012.
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- Brissimis Sophocles and Papadopoulou Dafni-Marina, “The physical introduction of euro banknotes and coins in Greeceâ€, No. 18, December 2001.
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Brissimis Sophocles and Vlassopoulos Thomas, “Determinants of bank interest rates and comparisons between Greece and the euro areaâ€, No. 28, February 2007.
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- CONTENTS WORKING PAPERS (JANUARY – JUNE 2016) Reliable forecasts of an economic crisis well in advance of its onset could permit effective preventative measures to mitigate its consequences.
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- Demenagas Nicholas and Gibson Heather, “Competition in Greek banking: an empirical study for the period 1993-1999â€, No. 19, July 2002.
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- During the late 1940s and the early 1950s Milton Friedman favoured a rule, under which fiscal policy would be used to generate changes in the money supply with the aim of stabilising output at full employment. He believed that the economy is inherently unstable because of endogenous movements in money supply under a fractional-reserve banking system. In her work, Anna Schwartz downplayed the role of monetary factors in business cycles and the role of monetary policy as a stabilisation tool.
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- Economic Bulletin July 2016 43 Economic Bulletin July 2016 ISSN: 1105
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- Economic Bulletin July 2016 Kanellopoulos Nikolaos C., Mitrakos Theodoros, Tsakloglou Panos and Cholezas Ioannis, “The impact of the current crisis on private returns to education in Greeceâ€, No. 38, November 2013.
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Economic Bulletin July 2016 Systemic early warning systems for EU15 based on the 2008 crisis Working Paper Îο. 202 Savas Papadopoulos, Pantelis Stavroulias and Thomas Sager Macroeconomic forecasting and structural changes in steady states Working Paper No. 204 Dimitrios P. Louzis This paper proposes methods for estimating a Bayesian vector autoregression (VAR) model with an informative steady state prior which also accounts for possible structural changes in the long-term trend of the macroeconomic variables. The empirical analysis, which is based on three key macroeconomic variables for the US economy (namely, GDP growth, inflation and short-term interest rate), shows that the proposed time-varying steady state VAR model can (a) accurately capture various structural changes in the long-term trend of the variables and (b) lead to superior point and density macroeconomic forecasting compared to constant steady state VAR specifications.
- Filippides Anastasios, Kyriakopoulos Panayotis and Moschos Dimitrios, “Bank of Greece monetary policy instrumentsâ€, No. 6, November 1995.
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Firm investment and financial conditions in the euro area: evidence from firm-level data Working Paper No. 208 Hiona Balfoussia and Heather D. Gibson Economic Bulletin July 2016 How Friedman and Schwartz became monetarists Working Paper No. 207 James R. Lothian and George S. Tavlas Economic Bulletin July 2016 81 Boutos Yannis, “Economic stabilisation and growth prospectsâ€, No. 3, February 1994.
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Mariathasan, M. and O. Merrouche (2012), “Recapitalization, credit and liquidityâ€, Economic Policy, 27(72), 603-646.
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- Using the EU15 crisis of 2008 as a template, a methodology that can accurately predict the crisis several quarters in advance in each country is developed. The data for the predictions are standard, publicly available macroeconomic and market variables that are preprocessed by moving averages and filtering. The prediction models then utilise the filtered data to distinguish pre-crisis from normal quarters through standard statistical classification methodology plus a proposed new combined method, enhanced by an innovative threshold selection and goodness-of-fit measure.
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