JP7570553B1 - Electric power equipment management system, electric power equipment management method, and electric power equipment management program - Google Patents

Abstract

[Problem] Risk management and impact calculation are refined by considering time series changes related to a power grid system. [Solution] One aspect of the present disclosure is an electric power equipment management system including a prediction unit that predicts time series changes in the impact at the time of failure caused by the failure of each piece of electric power equipment, an acquisition unit that acquires failure probability information, a first risk transition calculation unit that calculates a risk transition of each piece of electric power equipment based on the time series changes in the impact at the time of failure of each piece of electric power equipment and the failure probability of each piece of electric power equipment, a plan creation unit that calculates a risk reduction range of each piece of electric power equipment by updating each piece of electric power equipment, selects one or more pieces of equipment to be updated from the plurality of pieces of electric power equipment, and creates an equipment update plan including the selected equipment to be updated, a second risk transition calculation unit that calculates risk transitions of the plurality of pieces of electric power equipment after the update target equipment is updated based on the equipment update plan, and an information output unit that outputs information for displaying the risk transitions of the plurality of pieces of electric power equipment and the equipment update plan. [Selected Figure] FIG.

Description

The present invention relates to an electric power equipment management system, an electric power equipment management method, and an electric power equipment management program.

In order to maintain a low-cost and stable power supply, power equipment management systems have traditionally been required to shift from Time-Based Maintenance (TBM) to Risk-Based Maintenance (RBM).
For example, Patent Document 1 describes an equipment operation planning system that creates an equipment operation plan that takes into account the risk cost of the entire plant. The equipment operation planning system creates an equipment operation plan based on failure system information and an operation planning period for each piece of equipment. The equipment operation planning system determines the type of failure recovery model for each piece of equipment from reliability data, creates failure recovery models including the degree of increase in failure rate and the degree of recovery by implementing maintenance items, creates multiple operation scenarios consisting of multiple combinations of maintenance items within the operation planning period, and calculates the risk cost of the entire plant when a failure occurs from the failure rate and impact data calculated from each operation scenario and the failure system information.

JP 2005-85178 A

In the case of power system inspections and inspections, if the quality of work declines due to a decrease in skilled engineers, it becomes difficult to accurately grasp the deterioration state of the equipment, which may cause disruptions to the power supply. In response to this, the facility operation planning system is required to mechanize the inspection and inspection of the power system and the demand forecast, predict and quantify the deterioration state of the equipment to visualize the equipment condition, predict the introduction of renewable energy, and develop an optimal long-term facility renewal plan for the entire power system. In this way, it is necessary to improve the accuracy of demand forecasts and power supply interruption predictions while transforming the risk management work in the inspection and inspection of the power system, and maintain a stable power supply at low cost.
However, in the past, when calculating the risk and impact of failures on power equipment, the power equipment and changes in the power equipment over time were not taken into consideration, and changes over time were not reflected in the creation of long-term equipment renewal plans.

This disclosure has been made in light of these circumstances, and aims to provide a power equipment management system, a power equipment management method, and a power equipment management program that can refine risk management and impact calculations by taking into account time-series changes related to the power grid system.

The present disclosure has been made to solve the above-mentioned problems, and one aspect of the present disclosure is an electric power equipment management system that evaluates risks of a plurality of electric power equipment included in an electric power system, comprising: a prediction unit that predicts a time series change in an impact at the time of a failure caused by a failure of each piece of electric power equipment; an acquisition unit that acquires failure probability information indicating a change in the failure probability of each piece of electric power equipment; a first risk transition calculation unit that calculates a risk transition of each piece of electric power equipment based on the time series change in the impact at the time of a failure of each piece of electric power equipment predicted by the prediction unit and the failure probability of each piece of electric power equipment acquired by the acquisition unit; and updating each piece of electric power equipment based on the risk transition of each piece of electric power equipment calculated by the first risk transition calculation unit. The electric power equipment management system includes a plan creation unit that calculates a risk reduction range for each piece of electric power equipment, selects one or more pieces of update target equipment from the plurality of electric power equipment in descending order of risk reduction range for each piece of electric power equipment so that the total risk reduction range for each year falls below a risk target value for each year obtained by adding up the risk trends of the plurality of electric power equipment, and creates an equipment update plan that includes the selected update target equipment; a second risk transition calculation unit that calculates risk transitions of the plurality of electric power equipment after the update target equipment is updated based on the equipment update plan created by the plan creation unit; and an information output unit that outputs information for displaying the risk transitions of the plurality of electric power equipment calculated by the second risk transition calculation unit and the equipment update plan.
It is.

Another aspect of the present disclosure is a power equipment management method for evaluating the risk of multiple power equipment included in a power system, the power equipment management system includes a step of predicting a time series change in the impact of failure caused by the failure of each power equipment, a step of the power equipment management system acquiring failure probability information indicating the transition of the failure probability of each power equipment, a step of the power equipment management system calculating the risk transition of each power equipment based on the predicted time series change in the impact of failure of each power equipment and the failure probability of each power equipment, a step of the power equipment management system calculating the risk reduction range of each power equipment by updating each power equipment based on the calculated risk transition of each power equipment, selecting one or more update target equipment from the multiple power equipment in descending order of the risk reduction range of each power equipment so as to be below the risk target value for each year obtained by summing the risk transitions of the multiple power equipment, and creating an equipment update plan including the selected update target equipment, a step of the power equipment management system calculating the risk transition of the multiple power equipment after updating the update target equipment based on the equipment update plan, and a step of the power equipment management system outputting information for displaying the risk transition of the multiple power equipment after updating the update target equipment and the equipment update plan.

Another aspect of the present disclosure is a power equipment management program that causes a computer of an information processing device that evaluates the risk of multiple power equipment included in a power system to execute processing including the steps of predicting a time series change in the impact of failure caused by the failure of each power equipment, acquiring failure probability information indicating the transition of the failure probability of each power equipment, calculating the risk transition of each power equipment based on the predicted time series change in the impact of failure of each power equipment and the failure probability of each power equipment, calculating the risk reduction range of each power equipment by updating each power equipment based on the calculated risk transition of each power equipment, selecting one or more update target equipment from the multiple power equipment in descending order of the risk reduction range of each power equipment so that the risk reduction range is below the annual risk target value obtained by summing the risk transitions of the multiple power equipment, and creating an equipment update plan including the selected update target equipment, calculating the risk transition of the multiple power equipment after updating the update target equipment based on the equipment update plan, and outputting information for displaying the risk transition of the multiple power equipment after updating the update target equipment and the equipment update plan.

According to one aspect of the present invention, it is possible to refine risk management of a power grid system, optimize equipment to be updated in the power grid system, and create an equipment update plan.

1 is a block diagram showing an example of a power equipment management system 100A according to a first embodiment. 4 is a flowchart for explaining a process of a power equipment management system 100A according to the first embodiment. 13 is a diagram showing the relationship between a future total risk value and a risk target value in a plurality of power facilities 210 in the first embodiment. FIG. FIG. 13 is a diagram showing a total risk value for each fiscal year in the first embodiment. FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of functions of a power equipment management system 100A according to the first embodiment. FIG. 11 is a diagram illustrating a relationship between an equipment risk and a reference value in the first embodiment. FIG. 13 is a diagram illustrating an example of a function for optimizing a long-term investment plan in the first embodiment. FIG. 11 is a block diagram showing an example of a power equipment management system 100B according to a second embodiment. 13A and 13B are diagrams illustrating an example of input information and output information to a prediction unit 170 according to the second embodiment. FIG. 13 is a diagram illustrating an example of failure probability with respect to year in the second embodiment. FIG. 13 is a diagram illustrating an example of risk for each fiscal year in the second embodiment. FIG. 13 is a block diagram showing an example of a power equipment management system 100C according to a third embodiment. FIG. 13 is a system diagram illustrating an example of a power system 200 according to a third embodiment. FIG. 13 is a block diagram for explaining another example of the first risk transition calculation unit 120C in the third embodiment. 13 is a flowchart showing an example of a processing procedure of a power equipment management system 100C according to the third embodiment. 13 is a flowchart showing an example of a process for evaluating failure-time effect information in the third embodiment; FIG. 13 is a block diagram showing an example of a power equipment management system 100D according to a fourth embodiment. 13A and 13B are diagrams showing the relationship between the year and risk for each power equipment 210 in the fourth embodiment, where (a) is a diagram showing the relationship between the year and risk when no replacement or repair is performed, (b) is a diagram showing the relationship between the year and risk when replacement is performed, and (c) is a diagram showing the relationship between the year and risk when repair is performed. A figure for explaining the life cycle cost for each power facility 210 in the fourth embodiment. FIG. 13 is a block diagram showing an example of a power equipment management system 100E1 according to a fifth embodiment. FIG. 13 is a block diagram showing another power equipment management system 100E2 according to the fifth embodiment. A diagram showing the relationship between a first risk transition and a second risk transition in the fifth embodiment.

Below, the power equipment management system, power equipment management method, and power equipment management program to which the present invention is applied will be described with reference to the drawings.

(First embodiment)
FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing an example of a power equipment management system 100A according to the first embodiment.
The power equipment management system 100A is connected to the power system 200 and the terminal device 300 via, for example, a communication network NW. The communication network NW is, for example, a general-purpose network such as the Internet, but is not limited thereto, and may include a private network such as local 5G or WiFi (registered trademark).
The power grid system 200 includes a plurality of power facilities 210. The power facilities 210 are, for example, power generation facilities, power transmission and distribution facilities, consumer facilities, renewable energy power generation facilities, etc., but are not limited thereto, and may include any facilities included in the power grid.
The terminal device 300 is an information processing device operated by a person who manages the power grid system 200 .

The power equipment management system 100A is an information processing device that performs processing to manage a plurality of power equipment 210 included in the power grid system 200 .
The power equipment management system 100A includes, for example, an acquisition unit 110, a first risk transition calculation unit 120, a plan creation unit 130, a second risk transition calculation unit 140, an optimization unit 150, and an information output unit 160. The functional units, such as the acquisition unit 110, the first risk transition calculation unit 120, the plan creation unit 130, the second risk transition calculation unit 140, the optimization unit 150, and the information output unit 160, are realized by a processor, such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit), executing a power equipment management program stored in a disk-shaped recording medium or the like. In addition, some or all of these functional units may be realized by hardware such as an LSI (Large Scale Integration), an ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit), or an FPGA (Field-Programmable Gate Array), or may be realized by software and hardware working together. In addition, these functions may be integrated and mounted on a single information processing device, or may be distributed among multiple information processing devices.

The acquisition unit 110 acquires failure impact information and failure probability information. The failure impact information and failure probability information are information for each power facility 210. The failure impact information is information indicating the impact caused by a failure of each power facility 210. The impact caused by a failure is, for example, a decrease in electricity usage fees, the cost of repairing the failure, the amount of damage caused to the business, etc. The failure probability information is information indicating the change in the failure probability of each power facility 210.

The first risk transition calculation unit 120 calculates the risk transition of each power equipment 210 based on the failure impact information and failure probability information acquired by the acquisition unit 110. The first risk transition calculation unit 120 calculates the risk of each power equipment 210 using the failure impact information and failure probability information for each year and for each power equipment 210, and calculates the risk transition of each power equipment 210 for multiple years.

The plan creation unit 130 calculates the risk reduction range of each power equipment 210 by updating each power equipment 210 based on the risk transition of each power equipment 210 calculated by the first risk transition calculation unit 120. The plan creation unit 130 selects one or more pieces of equipment to be updated from the multiple power equipment 210 in descending order of the risk reduction range of each power equipment 210 so that the sum of the risk transitions of the multiple power equipment 210 falls below the risk target value for each year. The plan creation unit 130 creates an equipment update plan that includes the selected equipment to be updated. The plan creation unit 130 selects the power equipment 210 to be updated for each fiscal year in a preset planning period. The planning period may be, for example, five years, or may be a long period such as 100 years.

The second risk transition calculation unit 140 calculates the risk transition of each power equipment 210 after the equipment to be updated is updated based on the equipment update plan created by the plan creation unit 130.

The optimization unit 150 optimizes the equipment to be updated for each year included in the equipment update plan created by the plan creation unit 130 based on the constraints of the entire power system. The constraints of the entire power system are parameters that vary the timing of equipment updates, such as the upper and lower limits of the annual construction volume, the budget upper limit, and the upper and lower limits of the number of personnel. For example, as optimization, the optimization unit 150 may move the excess construction volume to next year if the construction volume of the equipment to be updated for each year included in the equipment update plan exceeds the upper limit, and may move the excess construction volume to next year if the update costs for the equipment to be updated for each year exceed the budget.

The information output unit 160 outputs information for displaying the risk transitions of the multiple power equipment 210 calculated by the second risk transition calculation unit 140 and the equipment renewal plan optimized by the optimization unit 150. The information output unit 160 may transmit the information to the terminal device 300, but is not limited to this, and may output the information to a storage device (not shown) so that the information can be viewed by the terminal device 300.

The acquisition unit 110 may acquire inspection information. The inspection information is information indicating the implementation status of inspections of each power facility 210. The acquisition unit 110 may acquire the inspection information from an information processing device of a maintenance company included in the power system 200, or may acquire the inspection information from the terminal device 300. The acquisition unit 110 updates the failure probability of each power facility 210 based on the inspection information. The acquisition unit 110 changes the failure probability, for example, based on the degree of deterioration of the power facility 210 as a result indicated by the inspection information.

FIG. 2 is a flowchart for explaining the process of the power equipment management system 100A according to the first embodiment.
First, when performing risk assessment of the power grid system 200, the acquisition unit 110 acquires equipment information, failure impact information, and failure probability information for each power equipment 210 (step S100). The equipment information is, for example, aging information and specification information of the power equipment 210.
Examples of impact information in the event of a failure include public disaster damage amount (also called public disaster risk or disaster impact degree), supply reliability (also called supply risk or power outage impact degree), and business operation damage amount (also called business operation risk or business operation impact degree).
The public disaster damage amount is the amount of damage inflicted on consumers due to the failure of the power facility 210. The supply reliability is the reliability of supplying the power facility 210 due to the failure of the power facility 210, and is higher, for example, as the power facility 210 is always in stock. The business operation damage amount is the amount of damage suffered by a company operating the power system 200 due to the failure of the power facility 210. The first risk transition calculation unit 120 multiplies each of the public disaster damage amount, the supply reliability, and the business operation damage amount by the failure probability, and calculates the sum of the three multiplied values as the facility risk. The risk transition of the power facility 210 increases with each passing year as the risk increase rate increases with each passing year.

Specifically, the power outage impact degree is a multiplication value of the power outage impact amount [yen] and the power outage occurrence probability [%] in the event of a failure. The power outage impact degree is, for example, a multiplication value of the impact amount [yen] per kWh in the event of a power outage for each type of power equipment 210, the power outage amount [kWh], and the power outage occurrence probability [%] in the event of a failure taking into account the redundancy of the power grid system 200.
The disaster impact degree is the product of the disaster impact amount [yen] and the probability of disaster occurrence in the event of a breakdown [%].
The business operation impact degree is the product of the business operation impact amount [yen] and the business operation impact occurrence probability [%] when a failure occurs. The business operation impact amount [yen] is, for example, the business operation impact amount [yen] and the occurrence probability [%] of an event that affects business operations when the power facility 210 fails.
The failure probability is calculated based on, for example, the expected age, standard health score, and current health score of the power equipment 210. The expected age of the power equipment 210 is a value obtained by dividing the standard expected age by a location coefficient corresponding to the location of the power equipment 210 and a usage coefficient corresponding to the usage of the power equipment 210. The standard health score is a value calculated from the age value and expected age of the power equipment 210. The current health score is a product of the standard health score, the health score coefficient, and the reliability coefficient.

Next, the first risk transition calculation unit 120 calculates the risk (hereinafter referred to as equipment risk) of each power equipment 210 based on the failure impact information and failure probability information acquired by the acquisition unit 110 (step S102), and calculates the risk transition using the equipment risk for each fiscal year (step S104). The risk of the power equipment 210 may be determined, for example, by multiplying the failure impact information and the failure probability.

Next, the plan creation unit 130 creates an equipment renewal plan (step S106). For example, the plan creation unit 130 selects as renewal target equipment, with priority, the power equipment 210 that has a large risk reduction range by updating each power equipment 210 based on the risk transition of each power equipment 210 calculated by the first risk transition calculation unit 120. The risk of the replacement target equipment is greatly reduced in the updated year as shown in the left diagram in S106 of FIG. 2, and the risk of the equipment not to be replaced is gradually increased as calculated in step S104 as shown in the right diagram in S106 of FIG. 2. For example, as shown in FIG. 3, the plan creation unit 130 determines the risk of the entire power system 200 for each year, the equipment to be replaced, and the equipment not to be replaced by selecting the power equipment 210 such that the total risk value obtained by adding up the risk of the equipment to be replaced and the risk of the equipment not to be replaced does not exceed the risk target value for each year.
FIG. 3 is a diagram showing the relationship between the future total risk value and the risk target value for a plurality of power facilities 210 in the first embodiment.

Next, the second risk transition calculation unit 140 calculates the risk transition of each power equipment 210 after the equipment to be updated is updated based on the equipment update plan (step S108). The current failure impact as shown in the left diagram in S108 of FIG. 2 will become higher in the future as shown in the right diagram in S108 of FIG. 2. Therefore, the second risk transition calculation unit 140 calculates the risk transition by calculating the risk for each year based on the failure impact information that becomes higher the further into the future.

Next, the optimization unit 150 optimizes the equipment to be updated for each year included in the equipment renewal plan created by the plan creation unit 130, and the information output unit 160 outputs information for displaying the optimized equipment renewal plan (step S110).
4 is a diagram showing the total risk value for each fiscal year in the first embodiment. For example, as shown in FIG. 4, the power equipment management system 100A can create an equipment renewal plan so as to make the equipment risk of a large number of power equipment 210 included in the power grid system 200 constant for each fiscal year, and can display the plan on the terminal device 300.

FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating an example of functions of the power equipment management system 100A according to the first embodiment.
The above-mentioned power equipment management system 100A has a risk assessment function 122, an equipment renewal recommendation timing calculation function 132, an investment subject creation function 134, and an optimization function 152. The risk assessment function 122, the equipment renewal recommendation timing calculation function 132, the investment subject creation function 134, and the optimization function 152 are functions realized by computer processing by an information processing device for realizing the power equipment management system 100A. Furthermore, these functions may be integrated into the power equipment management system 100A, or may be distributed between the power equipment management system 100A and another information processing device.

The risk assessment function 122 is a function realized by the first risk transition calculation unit 120 described above.
The risk assessment function 122 may evaluate the risk of the power equipment 210 using at least one of system information, customer information, and equipment environment information, for example. The system information is information indicating the configuration of the power system 200 including the configuration of each of the multiple power equipment 210 and the connection relationship of the power equipment 210. The risk assessment function 122 may calculate the risk for each power equipment 210 by taking into consideration the configuration of other power equipment 210 connected to the power equipment 210. The customer information is information indicating the customer who owns the power equipment 210. The customer information may be, for example, information indicating a risk threshold set by the customer. The risk assessment function 122 may change the risk calculation method depending on the customer, and may calculate the risk assessment result depending on the risk threshold. The equipment environment information is information indicating the environment in which the power equipment 210 is installed. The risk assessment function 122 calculates the risk of the power equipment 210 failing depending on the environment of the area in which the power equipment 210 is installed.

The risk assessment function 122 may assess the risk of the power equipment 210 using at least one of the equipment specification information, maintenance record information, and abnormality record information. The equipment specification information, maintenance record information, and abnormality record information are information obtained from the supplier of the power equipment 210 and the company that maintains and inspects the power equipment 210, and are information stored in the terminal device 300 or other storage devices. The risk assessment function 122 may calculate the risk using the equipment specifications of the power equipment 210. The risk assessment function 122 may refer to the maintenance record of the power equipment 210 and calculate the risk according to the state of the power equipment 210 based on the maintenance record. The risk assessment function 122 may calculate the risk according to an abnormality in the power equipment 210 that is revealed by inspection.

The recommended equipment renewal timing calculation function 132 is a function realized by the plan creation unit 130 described above.
The recommended equipment replacement timing calculation function 132 calculates a recommended timing for replacing the electric power equipment 210 based on the risk assessment result of the electric power equipment 210 calculated by the risk assessment function 122. For example, the recommended equipment replacement timing calculation function 132 brings forward the recommended equipment replacement timing when the risk is higher than a threshold, and postpones the recommended equipment replacement timing when the risk is lower than the threshold. In this way, the recommended equipment replacement timing calculation function 132 creates an equipment replacement plan including the replacement order for the electric power equipment 210.

The equipment renewal recommendation timing calculation function 132 may calculate the equipment renewal recommendation timing based on at least one of cost information and constraint information. The cost information is information indicating the cost of updating the power equipment 210. The cost includes, for example, the cost of dealing with equipment renewal, as well as the maintenance cost of maintaining the power equipment 210. The renewal cost varies depending on the renewal year, and also varies depending on the supply and demand of the power equipment 210 each year. The constraint information is information that serves as a constraint for updating the power equipment 210. The constraints are parameters that change the equipment renewal timing, such as the upper and lower limits of the annual construction volume, the budget upper limit, the upper and lower limits of the number of personnel, and the supply volume and supply timing of parts for renewing the power equipment 210.

The investment subject creation function 134 is a function realized by the plan creation unit 130 described above.
The investment subject creation function 134 is a function for creating an investment subject including a plurality of equipment renewal works for a plurality of renewal target facilities. The investment subject is the name of a portfolio including a plurality of equipment renewal works for renewing the power equipment 210, and is a subject for the manager of the power grid system 200 to consider an investment.
The investment subject creation function 134 creates an investment subject using information such as system information, resource information, construction information, and recommended replacement timing. System information includes the location of the power equipment 210 that needs to be updated. Resource information is information indicating the amount of resources required to carry out equipment renewal construction, such as personnel and parts, and the time when they can be supplied. Construction information is information indicating the equipment to be renewed and the date and time for equipment renewal construction that has already been determined. The recommended replacement timing is information indicating the time when replacement is recommended, which is set for each power equipment 210 by the manufacturer of the power equipment 210.
The investment subject creation function 134 utilizes resources to select multiple equipment renewal works located close to each other from the viewpoint of efficiency, and registers them under the same investment subject. The investment subject creation function 134 may preferentially register the power equipment 210 whose recommended replacement time is approaching under the investment subject, and determine the date and time of the equipment renewal work by referring to the work information. In this way, the investment subject creation function 134 creates an investment subject for carrying out multiple equipment renewal works per fiscal year, and creates a long-term investment plan. The long-term investment plan may include one investment subject or multiple investment subjects.

The optimization function 152 is a function realized by the optimization unit 150 described above.
The optimization function 152 optimizes the long-term investment plan based on the investment index and constraints. The information is an index for the investment to update the power equipment 210. The constraints are the upper and lower limits of the annual construction volume, the budget upper limit, the upper and lower limits of the number of personnel, the supply amount and supply timing of parts for updating the power equipment 210, and the like, as described above. The process of optimizing the long-term investment plan is a process of selecting the equipment to be updated to be postponed to the next fiscal year in consideration of the investment index and constraints, and a process of changing the timing of the equipment update work within the fiscal year or in a later year. The optimization function 152 may optimize the long-term investment plan based on information on investments other than the equipment update work in the power system 200. The investments other than the equipment update work are, for example, construction work to newly build the power equipment 210, and the like. The optimization function 152 may change the timing of the equipment update work included in the long-term investment plan according to the cost of the investments other than the equipment update work.

FIG. 6 is a diagram showing the relationship between the equipment risk and the reference value in the first embodiment.
For example, when the investment subject includes equipment A to F that is the subject of renewal, the optimization function 152 calculates the equipment risk for each fiscal year by adding up the risks of the equipment A to F that is the subject of renewal. When the equipment risk exceeds a reference value, the optimization function 152 can optimize the long-term investment plan for each investment subject by postponing any of the equipment A to F that is the subject of renewal until the next fiscal year.

FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating an example of the function of optimizing a long-term investment plan in the first embodiment.
The optimization function 152 may optimize the long-term investment plan so as to keep the construction budget within the cost constraints for each fiscal year. In addition to the equipment renewal work that maintains the risk of the power equipment 210 at a constant value, when a budget is allocated to construction other than the equipment renewal work, such as the new construction (increase) of the power equipment 210 and the expansion of the power equipment 210, the optimization function 152 may change the timing of the equipment renewal work included in the investment subject due to the budget constraint of the equipment renewal work.

According to the power equipment management system 100A of the first embodiment, the risk transition of each power equipment is calculated based on the failure impact information and the failure probability information, the risk reduction range of each power equipment 210 by updating each power equipment 210 is calculated based on the risk transition of each power equipment 210, and one or more update target equipment is selected from the multiple power equipment 210 in descending order of the risk reduction range of each power equipment 210 so as to be below the risk target value for each year obtained by summing the risk transitions of the multiple power equipment 210, and an equipment update plan including the selected update target equipment is created. Furthermore, the power equipment management system 100A can calculate the risk transition of each power equipment 210 after updating the update target equipment based on the equipment update plan, and optimize the update target equipment for each year included in the equipment update plan based on the constraint conditions of the entire power system. As a result, the power equipment management system 100A can output information for displaying the risk transitions of the multiple power equipment 210 and the optimized equipment update plan, and provide investment information for the power system system 200. According to the power equipment management system 100A, the equipment to be updated is optimized by calculating the risk transition of each power equipment 210 for the equipment update plan, so that it is possible to create an equipment update plan that refines the risk management of the power system 200 and optimizes the equipment to be updated of the power system 200.
In addition, according to the power equipment management system 100A, the failure probability of each power equipment 210 is updated based on inspection information indicating the status of inspection of each power equipment 210, and the risk transition is calculated, thereby further refining the risk management of the power grid system 200.

Second Embodiment
The second embodiment will be described below. In the description of the second embodiment, the same components as those in the first embodiment are denoted by the same reference numerals and the description thereof will be omitted.
FIG. 8 is a block diagram showing an example of a power equipment management system 100B according to the second embodiment.
The power equipment management system 100B is an information processing device that performs a process of evaluating the risks of a plurality of power equipment 210 included in the power grid system 200. The power equipment management system 100B includes, for example, a prediction unit 170, an acquisition unit 110B, a first risk transition calculation unit 120B, a plan creation unit 130B, a second risk transition calculation unit 140B, an optimization unit 150, and an information output unit 160B. The functional units such as the acquisition unit 110B, the first risk transition calculation unit 120B, the plan creation unit 130B, the second risk transition calculation unit 140B, the optimization unit 150, and the information output unit 160B may be realized by, for example, a processor such as a CPU executing a power equipment management program stored in a disk-shaped recording medium or the like. These functions may be integrated and mounted on a single information processing device, or may be distributed among a plurality of information processing devices.

The prediction unit 170 predicts the time series change of the failure impact caused by the failure of each power facility 210. For example, the population and renewable energy power generation facilities in the power supply area of the power facility 210 change over time. In areas where the population of the power supply area of the power facility 210 increases year by year, the power demand increases year by year, so the failure impact caused by the failure of each power facility 210 becomes larger year by year. If the number of solar power generation facilities increases in the power supply area of the power facility 210, renewable energy increases year by year and the power demand of the power plant decreases year by year, and the failure impact caused by the failure of each power facility 210 fluctuates year by year. In this way, the flow of power in the power system 200 changes due to the increase or decrease in population and renewable energy, etc., and the system congestion level increases or decreases, so the prediction unit 170 predicts the time series change of the failure impact for each power facility 210 taking into account the time series change.

The acquisition unit 110B acquires failure probability information for each power facility 210. The failure probability information is information that indicates the probability of a failure occurring for each power facility 210 and for each fiscal year.

The first risk transition calculation unit 120B calculates the risk transition of each power equipment 210 based on the time series change in the impact of failure of each power equipment 210 predicted by the prediction unit 170 and the failure probability of each power equipment 210. The first risk transition calculation unit 120B calculates the risk of each power equipment 210 using the time series change in the impact of failure for each year and for each power equipment 210 and the failure probability, and calculates the risk transition of each power equipment 210 for multiple years.

The plan creation unit 130B calculates the risk reduction range of each power equipment 210 by updating each power equipment 210 based on the risk transition of each power equipment 210 calculated by the first risk transition calculation unit 120B. The plan creation unit 130B selects one or more pieces of equipment to be updated from the multiple power equipment 210 in descending order of the risk reduction range of each power equipment 210 so that the total risk transition of the multiple power equipment 210 falls below the risk target value for each year. The plan creation unit 130B creates an equipment update plan that includes the selected equipment to be updated.

The second risk transition calculation unit 140B calculates the risk transition of multiple electric power equipment after the equipment to be updated is updated based on the equipment update plan created by the plan creation unit 130B. It calculates the risk transition of each electric power equipment 210 after the equipment to be updated is updated based on the equipment update plan created by the plan creation unit 130. The information output unit 160B outputs the risk transition of the multiple electric power equipment 210 calculated by the second risk transition calculation unit 140B.

In the power equipment management system 100B, the optimization unit 150 may optimize the equipment to be updated for each year included in the equipment update plan created by the plan creation unit 130B based on the constraints of the entire power system. The constraints of the entire power system are parameters that vary the timing of equipment updates, such as the upper and lower limits of the annual construction volume, the budget upper limit, and the upper and lower limits of the number of personnel. For example, the optimization unit 150 may move the excess construction volume to next year when the construction volume of the equipment to be updated for each year included in the equipment update plan exceeds the upper limit, and may move the excess construction volume to next year when the update cost for the equipment to be updated for each year exceeds the budget. The information output unit 160B outputs information for displaying the risk transition of the multiple power equipment 210 calculated by the second risk transition calculation unit 140B and the equipment update plan.

FIG. 9 is a diagram showing an example of input information and output information to the prediction unit 170 in the second embodiment.
The prediction unit 170 acquires, for example, equipment data, inspection data, system data, and time-series information. The equipment data is data indicating changes such as replacement of the power equipment 210, changes in the environment of the power equipment 210, and changes in the connection relationship between the power equipment 210 and other power equipment 210. The inspection data is data indicating the history of the inspection results of the power equipment 210. The system data is data indicating changes in the power system system 200 such as historical information on the introduction of renewable energy, historical information on the amount of power demand, and historical information on the occurrence of abnormalities. The time-series information is information indicating changes in the population density of a region acquired from a server device of a local government other than the power system 200. The prediction unit 170 predicts time-series changes in the risk of public disasters, time-series changes in the risk to power supply, and time-series changes in the risk to business operations as time-series changes in the impact of failures using the various acquired data and information.
The prediction unit 170 may make a prediction based on the data calculated by inputting the acquired information into an arithmetic formula, but is not limited to this. It may input various data into a machine learning model and predict the time series change in the impact of a failure based on the output of the machine learning model.

FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of failure probability with respect to year in the second embodiment, and FIG. 11 is a diagram showing an example of risk with respect to year in the second embodiment.
The failure probability [%] of the power equipment 210 for each fiscal year increases as shown in the standard deterioration curve in FIG. 10 , but the prediction unit 170 obtains inspection data indicating the results of patrols and inspections and predicts the failure probability of the power equipment 210, and can calculate a prediction result in which the failure probability increases with a larger change than the standard deterioration curve, as shown in the deterioration curve (large) in FIG. 10 .
As a result, the first risk transition calculation unit 120B calculates the risk transition of the power equipment 210 using the failure probability for each year predicted by the prediction unit 170, and the plan creation unit 130B can create a plan for equipment renewal work based on the failure probability for each year predicted by the prediction unit 170. The first risk transition calculation unit 120B can calculate, for example, a risk transition predicted by time-series change A based on the failure probability for each year predicted by the prediction unit 170, rather than the reference risk transition in Fig. 11 .

The impact of a failure may include a risk to public disasters, a risk to power supply, and a risk to business operations. The risk to public disasters is, for example, the amount of public disaster damages. The amount of public disaster damages is the amount of damages caused to consumers due to a failure of the power facility 210. The risk to power supply is the amount of damages caused by a lack of power supply from the power facility 210. The risk to business operations is the amount of damages caused by an inability to operate the power system 200. The risk to public disasters, the risk to power supply, and the risk to business operations change from year to year depending on time-series changes in the region, such as the population and the number of installed renewable energy facilities.
The prediction unit 170 predicts at least one of the time series changes in risk to public disasters, the time series changes in risk to power supply, and the time series changes in risk to business operations. This allows the power equipment management system 100B to calculate the risk transition for each year in the power equipment 210 based on the time series changes in risk to public disasters, the time series changes in risk to power supply, or the time series changes in risk to business operations. Note that the risk to public disasters, the risk to power supply, and the risk to business operations may be zero depending on the year.

The prediction unit 170 may predict the transition of the power demand, the transition of the power supply, and the transition of the power generation amount by the renewable energy equipment based on at least one of the history of the number of consumers connected to the power system 200, the history of the amount of renewable energy equipment introduced by the consumers connected to the power system 200, and the history of the congestion level of the power system 200. The prediction unit 170 can predict at least one of the time series changes in the risk of public disasters, the time series changes in the risk to the power supply, and the time series changes in the risk to business operations based on the prediction results. This allows the power equipment management system 100B to calculate the risk transition of the power equipment 210 according to the number of consumers connected to the power system 200, the amount of renewable energy equipment introduced by the consumers connected to the power system 200, and the congestion level of the power system 200.

According to the power equipment management system 100B of the second embodiment, the time series change of the impact of failure caused by the failure of each power equipment 210 is predicted, the risk transition of each power equipment is calculated based on the predicted time series change of the impact of failure of each power equipment 210 and the failure probability of each power equipment, the risk reduction range of each power equipment 210 by updating each power equipment 210 based on the calculated risk transition of each power equipment 210 is calculated, one or more update target equipment from the multiple power equipment 210 is selected in descending order of the risk reduction range of each power equipment 210 so as to be below the risk target value for each year obtained by summing the risk transitions of the multiple power equipment 210, an equipment update plan including the selected update target equipment is created, and the risk transition of the multiple power equipment 210 after updating the update target equipment based on the created equipment update plan can be calculated. As a result, according to the power equipment management system 100B, risk management and impact calculation can be refined by considering the time series change related to the power grid system 200.

Third Embodiment
The third embodiment will be described below. The same reference numerals are used to designate the same parts as those in the above-described embodiment, and the description thereof will be omitted.
FIG. 12 is a block diagram showing an example of a power equipment management system 100C according to the third embodiment.
The power equipment management system 100C is an information processing device that performs a process of evaluating the risks of a plurality of power equipment 210 included in the power grid system 200. The power equipment management system 100C includes, for example, an acquisition unit 110C, a first risk transition calculation unit 120C, a plan creation unit 130C, a second risk transition calculation unit 140C, an optimization unit 150, and an information output unit 160C. The functional units such as the acquisition unit 110C, the first risk transition calculation unit 120C, the plan creation unit 130C, the second risk transition calculation unit 140C, the optimization unit 150, and the information output unit 160C may be realized by a processor such as a CPU executing a power equipment management program stored in a disk-shaped recording medium or the like. These functions may be integrated and installed in a single information processing device, or may be distributed among a plurality of information processing devices.

The acquiring unit 110C acquires grid information, failure impact information, and failure probability information. The grid information is information indicating the power facilities 210 included in the power grid system 200 and the connection relationships between the power facilities 210.
The first risk transition calculation unit 120C calculates a risk transition of each power facility 210 based on the system information, the failure impact information, and the failure probability information acquired by the acquisition unit 110.
The first risk transition calculation unit 120C may change the failure impact information based on the system information, and calculate the risk transition of each power equipment 210 based on the changed pre-fault impact information. The failure impact information varies depending on the connection relationship of the multiple power equipment 210. Furthermore, the failure impact information varies depending on which power equipment 210 among the multiple power equipment 210 has failed. Therefore, the first risk transition calculation unit 120C can refine the calculation of the risk transition by changing the failure impact of the power equipment 210 based on the configuration of the power grid system 200 and calculating the risk transition of the power equipment 210.

FIG. 13 is a system diagram showing an example of a power system 200 according to the third embodiment.
The first risk transition calculation unit 120C may lower the failure impact for the power equipment 210 with a redundant configuration and calculate the risk transition using the changed failure impact. On the other hand, the first risk transition calculation unit 120C may raise the failure impact for the power equipment 210 with a non-redundant configuration and calculate the risk transition using the changed failure impact.
As shown in FIG. 13, for example, the power grid system 200 includes a power generation facility, a substation facility, and a regional grid, as well as a plurality of transformers 220a, 220b, 220c, and 220d.
The transformers 220a, 220b, and 220c are connected in parallel to a common busbar to provide a redundant configuration, whereas the busbar to which the transformer 220d is connected has no other transformers connected.
The failure impact information in the power system 200 includes the impact amount [yen] per kWh in the event of a power outage, the power outage power [kW] at the time of the failure, the system switching time, the power outage power [kW] after the system switching, and the power outage duration [h] for each type of power facility 210. In the existing power system, for example, when the transformer 220a fails, the risk is calculated based on the impact amount [yen] per kWh in the event of a power outage, the power outage power [kW] at the time of the failure, the system switching time, the power outage power [kW] after the system switching, and the power outage duration [h] that are preset.

The first risk transition calculation unit 120C changes the failure impact when the redundant transformer 220a, 220b, or 220c fails to a value different from the failure impact when the non-redundant transformer 220d fails. This allows the first risk transition calculation unit 120C to calculate a low risk for the redundant power equipment 210 and calculate the risk transition.

The failure impact information includes power outage amount information indicating the power outage power and the impact amount when a power outage occurs in the power grid system 200, and the first risk transition calculation unit 120C may change the power outage amount information of the power equipment 210 based on the grid information. When the power equipment 210 has a redundant configuration, the first risk transition calculation unit 120C may change the power outage amount of the power equipment 210 based on the redundant configuration. For example, the first risk transition calculation unit 120C changes the power outage amount when the redundant transformer 220a, 220b, or 220c fails to a value lower than the power outage amount of the non-redundant transformer 220d. This allows the first risk transition calculation unit 120C to calculate a low risk for the redundant power equipment 210 and calculate the risk transition.

The plan creation unit 130C calculates the risk reduction extent of each electric power equipment 210 by updating each electric power equipment 210 based on the risk transition of each electric power equipment 210 calculated by the first risk transition calculation unit 120C. The plan creation unit 130C selects one or more pieces of update target equipment from the multiple electric power equipment 210 in descending order of the risk reduction extent of each electric power equipment 210 so that the total risk transition of the multiple electric power equipment 210 falls below the risk target value for each year. The plan creation unit 130C creates an equipment update plan that includes the selected update target equipment.
The second risk transition calculation unit 140C calculates risk transitions of the multiple power equipment 210 after the equipment to be updated is updated based on the equipment renewal plan created by the plan creation unit 130C.
The information output unit 160C outputs information for displaying the risk transitions of the multiple power facilities 210 calculated by the second risk transition calculation unit 140C and the facility renewal plan.

In the power equipment management system 100C, the optimization unit 150 may optimize the equipment to be updated for each year included in the equipment update plan created by the plan creation unit 130C based on the constraints of the entire power system. The constraints of the entire power system are parameters that vary the timing of equipment updates, such as the upper and lower limits of the annual construction volume, the budget upper limit, and the upper and lower limits of the number of personnel. For example, the optimization unit 150 may move the excess construction volume to next year when the construction volume of the equipment to be updated for each year included in the equipment update plan exceeds the upper limit, and may move the excess construction volume to next year when the update cost for the equipment to be updated for each year exceeds the budget. The information output unit 160B outputs information for displaying the risk transition of the multiple power equipment 210 calculated by the second risk transition calculation unit 140B and the equipment update plan.

FIG. 14 is a block diagram for explaining another example of the first risk transition calculation unit 120C in the third embodiment.
The first risk transition calculation unit 120C may input smart meter (SM) measurement value information, solar radiation intensity information, and photovoltaic power generation (PV) introduction information from the power generation company facility 232 and the general consumer facility 234 via the acquisition unit 110C. The first risk transition calculation unit 120C may input patrol inspection information and automatic inspection information from inspection equipment 230 such as sensors and inspection terminals. The first risk transition calculation unit 120C may input system configuration information, power generation information, and load information from information equipment 236 such as IEDs and terminals.

FIG. 15 is a flowchart showing an example of a processing procedure of the power equipment management system 100C in the third embodiment, and FIG. 16 is a flowchart showing an example of a process for evaluating failure-time impact information in the third embodiment.
The acquisition unit 110C first acquires various information from the power grid system 200 as shown in FIG. 14 (step S200), and outputs the acquired information to the first risk transition calculation unit 120C.
The first risk transition calculation unit 120C predicts the power generation demand from, for example, smart meter (SM) measurement value information, solar radiation intensity information, and photovoltaic power generation (PV) introduction information (step S202). The first risk transition calculation unit 120C performs a power flow calculation in the power grid system 200 based on the predicted power generation demand (step S204), and predicts the system congestion degree of the power grid system 200 (step S206).

Next, the first risk transition calculation unit 120C evaluates the degree of system impact in the event of a failure (step S208). As shown in FIG. 16, the first risk transition calculation unit 120C performs a power flow calculation (step S302) when one or more power facilities do not fail, and a power flow calculation (step S304) when one or more power facilities fail. The first risk transition calculation unit 120C performs a power flow calculation (step S304) assuming, for example, that a high-risk power facility 210 in the power system 200 fails. The first risk transition calculation unit 120C calculates a higher degree of system impact in the event of a failure the greater the difference between the power flow calculation result when no failure occurs and the power flow calculation result when a failure occurs (step S306).

The first risk transition calculation unit 120C may perform power flow calculations in the case of failure for various power equipment 210 failures (step S304) and calculate the system impact at the time of the failure (step S306). The first risk transition calculation unit 120C ranks the impact of the failure and converts the impact with the highest rank among the ranked impacts into a damage amount (step S308). The first risk transition calculation unit 120C calculates the increase in public disaster damage amount (public disaster risk), the decrease in supply reliability (supply risk), and the increase in business operation damage amount (business operation risk) when the power equipment 210 fails as the damage amount at the time of the failure.

The first risk transition calculation unit 120C increases the risk of the power equipment 210 for each year as the damage amount in the event of a failure increases, and calculates the risk transition for each power equipment 210 (step S210). The plan creation unit 130C selects equipment to be updated from the multiple power equipment 210 so as to keep the risk for each year constant based on the risk transition and risk reduction range for each power equipment 210, and calculates the update timing for the selected update target equipment (step S212). The optimization unit 150 performs synchronization setting to update equipment to be updated at the same time that has similar update times and locations, for example (step S214).

According to the power equipment management system 100C of the third embodiment, the risk transition of each power equipment 210 is calculated based on the system information, the fault impact information, and the fault probability information of the power system 200, the risk reduction range of each power equipment 210 by updating each power equipment 210 based on the risk transition of each power equipment 210 is calculated, and one or more update target equipment from the multiple power equipment 210 is selected in descending order of the risk reduction range of each power equipment 210 so that the risk reduction range falls below the annual risk target value obtained by summing the risk transitions of the multiple power equipment 210, and an equipment update plan including the selected update target equipment can be created. According to the power equipment management system 100C, the risk management of the power system 200 can be refined by considering the system configuration of the power system 200. As a result, according to the power equipment management system 100C, an equipment update plan that optimizes the update target equipment of the power system 200 can be created.

(Fourth embodiment)
The fourth embodiment will be described below. The same reference numerals are used to designate the same parts as those in the above-mentioned embodiment, and the description thereof will be omitted.
FIG. 17 is a block diagram showing an example of a power equipment management system 100D according to the fourth embodiment.
The power equipment management system 100D is an information processing device that performs processing to manage a plurality of power equipment 210 included in the power grid system 200. The power equipment management system 100D includes, for example, an acquisition unit 110D, a first risk transition calculation unit 120D, a risk reduction range calculation unit 180, a cost calculation unit 182, a determination unit 184, a plan creation unit 130D, a second risk transition calculation unit 140, an optimization unit 150, and an information output unit 160D. The functional units such as the acquisition unit 110D, the first risk transition calculation unit 120D, the risk reduction range calculation unit 180, the cost calculation unit 182, the determination unit 184, the plan creation unit 130D, the second risk transition calculation unit 140, the optimization unit 150, and the information output unit 160D may be realized by, for example, a processor such as a CPU executing a power equipment management program stored in a disk-shaped recording medium or the like. These functions may be integrated and mounted on a single information processing device, or may be distributed among a plurality of information processing devices.

The acquisition unit 110D acquires failure impact information and failure probability information. The failure impact information and failure probability information are information for each power equipment 210. The failure impact information is information indicating the impact caused by the failure of each power equipment 210. The failure probability information is information indicating the change in the failure probability of each power equipment 210.

The first risk transition calculation unit 120D calculates the risk transition of each power equipment 210 based on the failure impact information and failure probability information acquired by the acquisition unit 110D. The first risk transition calculation unit 120D calculates the risk of each power equipment 210 using the failure impact information and failure probability information for each year and for each power equipment 210, and calculates the risk transition of each power equipment 210 for multiple years.

The risk reduction range calculation unit 180 calculates a first risk reduction range for each piece of power equipment 210 by replacing each piece of power equipment 210 based on the risk transition of each piece of power equipment 210 calculated by the first risk transition calculation unit 120D. The risk reduction range calculation unit 180 calculates the implementation timing of one or more repairs to be performed before replacing each piece of power equipment 210 and a second risk reduction range for each piece of power equipment 210 by each repair based on the risk transition of each piece of power equipment 210 calculated by the first risk transition calculation unit 120D.

Figure 18 is a diagram showing the relationship between the year and risk for each power equipment 210 in the fourth embodiment, where (a) is a diagram showing the relationship between the year and risk when replacement or repair is not performed, (b) is a diagram showing the relationship between the year and risk when replacement is performed, and (c) is a diagram showing the relationship between the year and risk when repair is performed.
In the electric power equipment 210 whose risk increases year by year as shown in FIG. 17(a), the electric power equipment 210 is replaced or modified when the risk of the electric power equipment 210 reaches a risk threshold. A first risk reduction width when the electric power equipment 210 is replaced is greater than a second risk reduction width when the electric power equipment 210 is repaired. For the repair of the electric power equipment 210, a repair method such as part replacement is adopted among various repair methods so that the risk reduction width is maximized for the electric power equipment 210. In this way, the risk reduction width calculation unit 180 can calculate the first risk reduction width and the second risk reduction width for each electric power equipment 210.

The cost calculation unit 182 calculates a first life cycle cost for each power equipment 210 up to replacement without repair. The first life cycle cost includes the installation cost of the power equipment 210 and the maintenance cost of the power equipment 210 until the risk of the power equipment 210 reaches the replacement threshold at which replacement becomes necessary. The cost calculation unit 182 calculates a second life cycle cost for each power equipment 210 up to repair and replacement. The second life cycle cost includes the installation cost of the power equipment 210, the repair cost performed before the risk of the power equipment 210 reaches the replacement threshold, and the maintenance cost until the risk of the power equipment 210 reaches the replacement threshold.

FIG. 19 is a diagram for explaining the life cycle cost for each power facility 210 in the fourth embodiment.
In the case of electric power equipment 210 whose risk increases year by year, the cost calculation unit 182 calculates the time to replace or repair the electric power equipment 210 when the risk of the electric power equipment 210 reaches a replacement threshold.
When the electric power equipment 210 is replaced at the response time, the cost calculation unit 182 reduces the risk of the electric power equipment 210 by a first risk reduction amount at the response time, and then increases the risk of the electric power equipment 210 year by year, and calculates a time t2 at which the risk of the electric power equipment 210 will again reach the replacement threshold. The cost calculation unit 182 calculates the first life cycle cost as the total cost of installing the electric power equipment 210, the replacement cost of the electric power equipment 210, and the maintenance cost up to the time t2.
The cost calculation unit 182 reduces the risk of the electric power equipment 210 by a second risk reduction amount at the response time when the electric power equipment 210 is repaired at the response time, and then increases the risk of the electric power equipment 210 year by year, and calculates the time t1 at which the risk of the electric power equipment 210 will again reach the replacement threshold. The cost calculation unit 182 calculates the second life cycle cost as the total cost of installing the electric power equipment 210, the repair cost of the electric power equipment 210, and the maintenance cost up to the time t1.

The determination unit 184 determines replacement and repair plan information indicating replacement or repair of each electric power equipment 210 based on the lower of the first life cycle cost and the second life cycle cost calculated by the cost calculation unit 182. The replacement and repair plan information is information indicating the replacement or repair timing for each electric power equipment 210.

The plan creation unit 130D selects one or more pieces of equipment to be updated from the multiple power equipment 210 so that the total risk transition of the multiple power equipment 210 falls below the target risk value for each year, based on the replacement and repair plan information for each power equipment 210 determined by the determination unit 184, the first risk reduction range calculated by the risk reduction range calculation unit 180, and the second risk reduction range. The plan creation unit 130D selects equipment to be updated to be replaced or repaired each year, for example, by adding up the risks of the equipment to be updated in order of the replacement or repair time until the target risk value for each year is reached. The plan creation unit 130D creates an equipment update plan that includes the selected equipment to be updated.

The second risk transition calculation unit 140 calculates the risk transition of each power equipment 210 after the equipment to be updated is updated based on the equipment update plan created by the plan creation unit 130.

The optimization unit 150 may optimize the equipment to be updated for each year included in the equipment update plan created by the plan creation unit 130D based on the constraints of the entire power system. The constraints of the entire power system are parameters that vary the timing of equipment updates, such as the upper and lower limits of the annual construction volume, the budget upper limit, and the upper and lower limits of the number of personnel. For example, as optimization, the optimization unit 150 may move the excess construction volume to next year if the construction volume of the equipment to be updated for each year included in the equipment update plan exceeds the upper limit, or may move the excess construction volume to next year if the update cost for the equipment to be updated for each year exceeds the budget. The information output unit 160D outputs information for displaying the equipment update plan created by the plan creation unit 130D.

According to the electric power equipment management system 100D of the fourth embodiment, a first risk reduction range of each electric power equipment 210 by replacing each electric power equipment 210 is calculated based on the risk transition of each electric power equipment 210, the timing of one or more repairs to be performed before replacing each electric power equipment 210 and a second risk reduction range of each electric power equipment 210 by each repair are calculated based on the risk transition of each electric power equipment 210, a first life cycle cost up to replacing each electric power equipment 210 without repair and a second life cycle cost up to replacing with repair are calculated, and replacement and repair plan information can be determined based on the lower of the first life cycle cost and the second life cycle cost. As a result, according to the electric power equipment management system 100D, a long-term equipment renewal plan can be created taking into account multiple options such as replacement and repair of the electric power equipment 210.

Fifth embodiment
The fifth embodiment will be described below. The same reference numerals are used to designate the same parts as those in the above-mentioned embodiment, and the description thereof will be omitted.
FIG. 20 is a block diagram showing an example of a power equipment management system 100E1 according to the fifth embodiment, and FIG. 21 is a block diagram showing another power equipment management system 100E2 according to the fifth embodiment.
The power equipment management system 100E1 is an information processing device that performs processing to manage a plurality of power equipment 210 included in the power grid system 200. The power equipment management system 100E1 includes, for example, an index transition calculation unit 190, a recommended time calculation unit 192, a plan creation unit 130E1, an optimization unit 150E1, and an information output unit 160E1. The functional units such as the index transition calculation unit 190, the recommended time calculation unit 192, the plan creation unit 130E1, the optimization unit 150E1, and the information output unit 160E1 may be realized by a processor such as a CPU executing a power equipment management program stored in a disk-shaped recording medium or the like. These functions may be integrated and installed in a single information processing device, or may be distributed among a plurality of information processing devices.

The index trend calculation unit 190 calculates trends in an index for avoiding risks due to power outages for each power facility 210, an index for avoiding risks for disasters for each power facility 210, an index for avoiding risks to business operations for each power facility 210, and an index for reducing response costs by updating each power facility 210. Note that when collectively referring to the index for avoiding risks due to power outages for each power facility 210, the index for avoiding risks for disasters for each power facility 210, the index for avoiding risks to business operations for each power facility 210, and the index for reducing response costs by updating each power facility 210, they are simply referred to as "investment indexes," and various risks are referred to as "investment parameters" as parameters for calculating the investment indexes.

The index transition calculation unit 190 may calculate an index for avoiding the risk of a power outage for each power facility 210 by calculating the amount of damage due to a power outage set by the power facility 210 for each fiscal year as a risk due to a power outage. The index transition calculation unit 190 may calculate an index for avoiding the risk of a disaster for each power facility 210 by calculating the amount of damage when a disaster occurs for each power facility 210 as a risk. The index transition calculation unit 190 may calculate an index for avoiding the risk to the business operation of each power facility 210 by calculating the amount of damage to the business operation of each power facility 210 when a failure or disaster occurs in the power facility 210 as a risk. The index transition calculation unit 190 may calculate an index for reducing the cost of response by updating each power facility 210 by calculating the cost of response by updating each power facility 210 as a risk. The index trend calculation unit 190 may calculate the index as damage amount or cost, but is not limited to this, and may also calculate values that have been processed by converting each of the multiple indexes into a specific range such as 0 to 100.

The recommended timing calculation unit 192 calculates the recommended timing at which the total value of the indices calculated by the index trend calculation unit 190 is maximized during the period during which the constraint conditions for updating each power equipment 210 are satisfied. The period during which the constraint conditions for updating each power equipment 210 are satisfied is a period during which constraints such as the budget, supply volume, and personnel for updating the power equipment 210 are satisfied. For example, when the period during which the constraint conditions are satisfied spans multiple fiscal years, the recommended timing calculation unit 192 calculates the sum of the multiple indices calculated by the index trend calculation unit 190 for each fiscal year, and calculates the fiscal year with the highest total value among the total values for each fiscal year.

The plan creation unit 130E1 selects one or more pieces of update target equipment from the multiple pieces of power equipment 210 based on the recommended timing for each piece of power equipment 210 calculated by the recommended timing calculation unit 192. The plan creation unit 130E1 creates an equipment update plan that includes the selected update target equipment.
The optimization unit 150E1 optimizes the equipment to be updated for each year that is included in the equipment updating plan created by the plan creation unit 130E1 based on the overall constraint conditions of the power grid system 200.
The information output unit 160E1 outputs information for displaying the equipment renewal plan optimized by the optimization unit 150E1.

The power equipment management system according to the fifth embodiment may be configured like another power equipment management system 100E2 as shown in FIG.
The index trend calculation unit 190 may include an acquisition unit 1901, a first risk trend calculation unit 1902, and a second risk trend calculation unit 1903.
The acquisition unit 1901 acquires failure-time effect information indicating the effect caused by a failure of each power facility 210 and failure probability information indicating the failure probability of each power facility 210 .
The first risk transition calculation unit 1902 calculates a first risk transition of each electric power equipment 210 based on the failure impact information and failure probability information acquired by the acquisition unit 1901. The first risk transition calculation unit 1902 calculates the risk of the electric power equipment 210 for each year from the year the electric power equipment 210 was installed, and calculates a first risk transition for the planning period.
The second risk transition calculation unit 1903 calculates a second risk transition of each electric power equipment 210 after updating each electric power equipment 210. The second risk transition calculation unit 1903 calculates the risk of the electric power equipment 210 for each year from the year in which the electric power equipment 210 was replaced, and calculates a second risk transition for the planning period.

The index transition calculation unit 190 calculates the transition of an index for updating each power equipment 210 based on the difference between the first risk transition of each power equipment 210 calculated by the first risk transition calculation unit 1902 and the second risk transition of each power equipment 210 calculated by the second risk transition calculation unit 1903. The recommended timing calculation unit 192 calculates the recommended timing at which the index for updating each power equipment 210 is maximized.

FIG. 22 is a diagram showing the relationship between the first risk transition and the second risk transition in the fifth embodiment.
When the power equipment 210 is currently newly installed, the first risk calculation value of the power equipment 210 gradually increases from the first reference value R1 to R3 and R4, and becomes an approximately constant value when it reaches the second reference value R2. When the power equipment 210 is replaced at the point when the first risk calculation value reaches the second reference value R2, the second risk calculation value gradually increases from the start point of the second risk, and becomes an approximately constant value when it reaches the second reference value R2. Note that the first risk transition and the second risk transition may change over time in a similar manner, but when updating to another power equipment 210 of the same type, the second risk transition changes over time differently from the first risk transition.
The difference between the first risk transition calculated by the first risk transition calculation unit 1902 and the second risk transition of each electric power equipment 210 calculated by the second risk transition calculation unit 1903 increases from the difference D1 at the second risk starting point T1 to a difference D2 at a time T2 when the change in the second risk calculation value is small, and decreases to a difference D3 as the time T3 approaches when the second risk calculation value gradually increases. The differences D1, D2, and D3 between the first risk calculation value and the second risk calculation value are risks that can be avoided each year by replacing the electric power equipment 210, and can be interpreted as indicators for replacing the electric power equipment 210. Therefore, the recommended time calculation unit 192 can calculate a period (year) in which the difference D2 between the first risk calculation value and the second risk calculation value is large and the change in the second risk calculation value is small from the second risk starting point as the recommended time (year) in which the indicator for updating each electric power equipment 210 is maximized.

As described above, according to the fifth embodiment of the power equipment management system 100E1, the value of avoiding the risk of power outages for each power equipment 210, the value of avoiding the risk of disasters for each power equipment 210, an index for avoiding risk to business operations for each power equipment 210, and trends in the index for reducing response costs by updating each power equipment are calculated, a recommended time when the total value of the indexes calculated in the period satisfying the constraints for updating each power equipment 210 is maximized, and one or more pieces of equipment to be updated are selected from the multiple power equipment 210 based on the recommended time for each power equipment 210, and an equipment update plan can be created.
In addition, according to the power equipment management system 100E2, a first risk transition of each power equipment 210 is calculated, a second risk transition of each power equipment 210 after updating each power equipment 210 is calculated, a transition of an index for updating each power equipment 210 is calculated based on the difference between the first risk transition of each power equipment 210 and the second risk transition of each power equipment 210, and a recommended time when the index for updating each power equipment 210 is maximized can be calculated.
As a result, according to the power equipment management systems 100E1 and 100E2, it is possible to select equipment to be updated based on the perspective of cost-effectiveness in terms of avoiding risks, and to create an equipment update plan.

Note that although each embodiment and each modified example have been described, these are merely examples and are not intended to be limiting. For example, any of the embodiments and modified examples, or a part of each embodiment or a part of each modified example, may be combined with one or more other embodiments or one or more other modified examples to realize one aspect of the present invention.

100A, 100B, 100C, 100D, 100E1, 100E2... Power equipment management system, 110, 110B, 110C, 110D, 1901... Acquisition unit, 120, 120B, 120C, 120, 1902... First risk transition calculation unit, 122... Risk assessment function, 130, 130B, 130C, 130D, 130E1... Plan creation unit, 132... Equipment renewal recommendation timing calculation function, 134... Investment subject creation function, 140, 140B, 140C, 1903...Second risk transition calculation unit, 150, 150E1...Optimization unit, 152...Optimization function, 160, 160B, 160C, 160D, 160E1...Information output unit, 170...Prediction unit, 180...Risk reduction range calculation unit, 182...Cost calculation unit, 184...Decision unit, 190...Index transition calculation unit, 192...Recommendation timing calculation unit, 200...Power system, 220a-220d...Transformers, 300...Terminal device

Claims (6)

An electric power equipment management system for evaluating risks of a plurality of electric power equipment included in an electric power system,
A prediction unit that predicts a time series change in the impact of a failure caused by a failure of each piece of power equipment;
An acquisition unit that acquires failure probability information indicating a transition of the failure probability of each piece of power equipment;
a first risk transition calculation unit that calculates a risk transition of each piece of electric power equipment based on a time series change in the impact of a failure of each piece of electric power equipment predicted by the prediction unit and a failure probability of each piece of electric power equipment acquired by the acquisition unit;
a plan creation unit that calculates a risk reduction range for each electric power equipment by updating each electric power equipment based on the risk transition of each electric power equipment calculated by the first risk transition calculation unit, selects one or more pieces of update target equipment from the plurality of electric power equipment in descending order of risk reduction range for each electric power equipment so that the risk reduction range falls below a target risk value for each year obtained by summing the risk transitions of the plurality of electric power equipment, and creates an equipment update plan including the selected update target equipment;
a second risk transition calculation unit that calculates a risk transition of a plurality of pieces of power equipment after updating target equipment based on the equipment renewal plan created by the plan creation unit;
an information output unit that outputs information for displaying the risk transitions of a plurality of electric power facilities calculated by the second risk transition calculation unit and the facility renewal plan;
An electric power equipment management system comprising: The impact of the failure includes risks to public disasters, risks to power supply, and risks to business operations;
The prediction unit predicts at least one of a time series change in risk to a public disaster, a time series change in risk to a power supply, and a time series change in risk to a business operation.
The power equipment management system according to claim 1 . The power equipment management system of claim 2, wherein the prediction unit predicts at least one of time series changes in risk to public disasters, time series changes in risk to power supply, and time series changes in risk to business operations based on historical information on the introduction of renewable energy, historical information on power demand, historical information on abnormality occurrences, and time series information showing changes in population density. The power equipment management system of claim 2, wherein the prediction unit predicts the trends in power demand, power supply, and power generation by renewable energy facilities based on at least one of the history of the number of consumers connected to the power system, the history of the amount of renewable energy facilities installed by consumers connected to the power system, and the history of the congestion level of the power system, and predicts at least one of the time series changes in risk to public disasters, the time series changes in risk to power supply, and the time series changes in risk to business operations based on the prediction results. 1. A power equipment management method for evaluating risks of a plurality of power equipment included in a power system, comprising:
A step in which the power equipment management system predicts a time series change in a failure effect caused by a failure of each power equipment;
The power equipment management system acquires failure probability information indicating a transition of the failure probability of each power equipment;
A step in which the power equipment management system calculates a risk transition of each piece of power equipment based on a time series change in the predicted impact of each piece of power equipment at the time of failure and a failure probability of each piece of power equipment;
The power equipment management system calculates a risk reduction range for each power equipment by updating each power equipment based on the calculated risk transition of each power equipment, selects one or more pieces of equipment to be updated from the multiple power equipment in descending order of risk reduction range for each power equipment so that the risk reduction range falls below a target risk value for each year obtained by summing the risk transitions of the multiple power equipment, and creates an equipment update plan including the selected pieces of equipment to be updated;
A step in which the electric power equipment management system calculates a risk transition of a plurality of electric power equipment after updating the equipment to be updated based on the equipment update plan;
A step in which the electric power equipment management system outputs information for displaying risk transitions of a plurality of electric power equipment after updating the equipment to be updated and the equipment update plan;
A power facility management method comprising: A computer of an information processing device for evaluating risks of a plurality of power facilities included in a power system,
A step of predicting a time series change in a failure effect caused by a failure of each power facility;
Obtaining failure probability information indicating a transition of the failure probability of each piece of power equipment;
A step of calculating a risk transition of each piece of power equipment based on a time series change of the predicted impact of the failure of each piece of power equipment and a failure probability of each piece of power equipment;
calculating a risk reduction range for each piece of electric power equipment by updating the piece of electric power equipment based on the calculated risk transition of each piece of electric power equipment, selecting one or more pieces of equipment to be updated from the plurality of pieces of electric power equipment in descending order of risk reduction range for each piece of electric power equipment so that the risk reduction range falls below a target risk value for each year obtained by summing the risk transitions of the plurality of pieces of electric power equipment, and creating an equipment update plan including the selected pieces of equipment to be updated;
Calculating a risk transition of a plurality of pieces of power equipment after updating the equipment to be updated based on the equipment update plan;
A step of outputting information for displaying risk transitions of a plurality of electric power equipment after updating the equipment to be updated and the equipment update plan;
The power equipment management program executes a process including the steps of:

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