JP4659525B2 - Cogeneration system - Google Patents

Description

The present invention is provided with a combined heat and power device that generates electric power and heat, hot water storage means for storing hot water in a hot water storage tank with heat generated by the combined heat and power supply device, and operation control means for controlling operation,
Data management process for managing the past time-series thermal load data and past time-series power load data by the operation control means, and time-series predicted thermal load data obtained based on the management data And setting a load-covering operation condition for operating the cogeneration device so as to cover time-series predicted power load data, and operating the cogeneration device under the load-covering operation condition The present invention relates to a cogeneration system configured to execute an operation process.

  Such a cogeneration system is installed in a general household and can use the electric power generated by the combined heat and power supply device, and also stores the hot water generated in the combined heat and power supply device as a heat source in a hot water storage tank. It is configured to be able to use hot and cold water, and is configured to save energy. Incidentally, the combined heat and power supply apparatus is configured to include a generator and an engine that drives the generator, or includes a fuel cell.

  In such a cogeneration system, conventionally, the operation control means has been configured to always perform load-covering condition operation processing (for example, Patent Document 1).

  By the way, in the above-mentioned Patent Document 1, the heat and power supply device is operated so as to cover the time-series predicted power load data as the operation condition for covering the load, and the time-series predicted power load data is used as such. When a heat shortage state in which heat is insufficient with respect to time-series predicted heat load data is predicted by operating the combined heat and power supply device to cover the time series, the time series before the time when the heat shortage state is predicted The condition for operating the combined heat and power unit with an output larger than the predicted power load data was set.

JP-A-8-14103

By the way, in the installation place of a cogeneration system, such as a general household, there may be no regularity in the life pattern for every set cycle (for example, 1 day), and in that case, the regularity in energy consumption for every set cycle is lost. Become.
For example, if the set cycle is one day, if the daily life pattern changes, the bathing time will vary and the bathing time will vary. The electricity consumption pattern will also change.

  However, conventionally, the load cover condition operation processing is always executed, and the cogeneration device is operated so as to always cover the time-series predicted heat load data and the time-series predicted power load data. Therefore, if there is no regularity in energy consumption for each set cycle, it is difficult to save energy.

In addition, such a cogeneration system saves energy by covering the power load and heat load at the location where the cogeneration system is installed while reducing excess and deficiency with the power and heat output from the cogeneration system. Can be improved.
However, when the load-covering condition operation process is executed in spite of the fact that there is no regularity in energy consumption for each set cycle, there is a possibility that a large heat surplus is generated in which the amount of output heat of the combined heat and power supply device is larger than the actual heat load. However, in particular, when such a large heat surplus occurs, the surplus heat remains stored in the hot water storage tank and the heat dissipation loss increases remarkably, so that the energy saving performance is significantly reduced.

  This invention is made | formed in view of this situation, The objective is to provide the cogeneration system which can be drive | operated so that energy saving may be improved.

The cogeneration system of the present invention is provided with a combined heat and power device for generating electric power and heat, hot water storage means for storing hot water in a hot water storage tank with heat generated by the combined heat and power supply device, and operation control means for controlling operation. ,
Data management process for managing the past time-series thermal load data and past time-series power load data by the operation control means, and time-series predicted thermal load data obtained based on the management data And setting a load-covering operation condition for operating the cogeneration device so as to cover time-series predicted power load data, and operating the cogeneration device under the load-covering operation condition Configured to execute a driving process,
In the first characteristic configuration, the operation control means is configured to set a plurality of unit times for each set period based on management data related to the past time-series thermal load data or the past time-series power load data. When it is determined that the energy consumption has regularity by executing regularity determination processing for determining whether the energy consumption has regularity, the load cover condition operation processing is executed, and the energy consumption is reduced. When it is determined that there is no regularity, it is configured to perform a preliminary operation process different from the load-covering condition operation process , and
By operating the combined heat and power supply device so as to cover the time-series predicted power load data, a heat shortage state in which heat is insufficient with respect to the time-series predicted heat load data, or the time It is configured to predict whether there will be excess heat with respect to the series of predicted heat load data,
When the load-covering operation condition does not predict either the heat shortage state or the heat surplus state, a power load follow-up operation process for operating the cogeneration device to cover the currently requested current power load is performed. When the heat shortage state is predicted, in a predetermined output increase target time zone, an output increase operation is performed to adjust the output of the combined heat and power unit to an output side larger than the current power load, or the heat surplus When the state is predicted, it is a condition that an output lowering operation is performed to adjust the output of the cogeneration device to an output side smaller than the current power load in a predetermined output lowering target time zone .

  That is, the operation control means has regularity in energy consumption for each set period consisting of a plurality of unit times based on management data related to past time-series thermal load data or past time-series power load data. When regularity determination processing is performed to determine whether or not there is regularity in energy consumption for each set cycle, load cover condition operation processing is performed and regularity is set for energy consumption for each set cycle When it is determined that there is no load, a preparatory operation process different from the load cover condition operation process is executed.

As the preliminary operation processing, for example, power load follow-up operation processing that operates the combined heat and power supply so as to cover the currently required current power load, or fuel at a relatively low output such as 25% of the rated output power. By causing the battery to operate at a low output, a large excess of heat that can occur when the load-covering condition operation process is executed even though there is no regularity in energy consumption for each set cycle is generated. This makes it possible to perform preliminary operation processing.
Therefore, it has become possible to provide a cogeneration system that can be operated to improve energy saving.
Further, according to the first characteristic configuration, the operation control means manages the time-series power load and the time-series heat load, so that the power load following operation is performed with respect to the time-series power load. Whether or not a heat shortage state occurs in which heat is insufficient with respect to the time-series heat load, or whether a heat surplus state with excess heat occurs with respect to the time-series heat load It is possible to predict whether or not.
Then, the operation control means performs predetermined processing when a heat shortage state in which heat is insufficient with respect to the time-series heat load is predicted by performing power load following operation processing for the time-series power load. Since the output increase operation is performed in the output increase target time zone, it is possible to output larger heat than in the power load following operation process.
Therefore, since the large heat output by performing the output increase operation can cover the time-series heat load, the occurrence of a heat shortage state can be suppressed, and the hot water is stored in the hot water storage tank. When the hot water is not stored, the operation of the auxiliary heating boiler for heating the hot water can be avoided as much as possible, and energy saving can be promoted.
In addition, the operation control means performs a power load following operation process for the time-series power load, and when a surplus heat state in which heat remains for the time-series heat load is predicted, Since the output decrease operation is performed in the output decrease and increase target time zone, it is possible to output heat smaller than that in the power load following operation process.
Accordingly, by performing the output lowering operation, it is possible to prevent excessive output of heat with respect to the time-series heat load, so that it is possible to suppress the occurrence of the excessive heat state. It is possible to avoid as much as possible that the heat stored in the heat is only radiated, and energy saving can be promoted.
In short, it is possible to further promote energy saving in the operation processing under load-bearing conditions, and it has become possible to operate to further improve energy saving as a whole.
The second feature configuration is
The operation control means is
Based on the past time-series thermal load data or the management data related to the past time-series power load data, it is determined whether or not there is regularity in energy consumption for each set period consisting of a plurality of unit times. When it is determined that the energy consumption is regular, the load cover condition operation process is performed, and when it is determined that the energy consumption is not regular, the load It is configured to perform a preliminary operation process different from the bribe condition operation process, and
Predicted hot water storage amount stored as hot water in the hot water storage tank when operating the combined heat and power device, predicted consumed energy amount when operating a power plant and a heating boiler, and predicted predicted consumed energy amount when operating the combined heat and power device And calculating a predicted energy reduction ratio that is a ratio of the predicted energy reduction amount to the predicted hot water storage amount, and an energy reduction ratio threshold value based on the calculated predicted energy reduction ratio And the current energy reduction ratio for the increased output from the minimum output of the combined heat and power unit based on the power load data and heat load data on the operating day and the past power load data and heat load data. Configured to calculate a certain current energy reduction ratio,
When the load-covering operation condition is such that the current energy reduction ratio is smaller than the energy reduction ratio threshold value, the combined heat and power unit is operated at a minimum output, and the current energy reduction ratio is equal to or greater than the energy reduction ratio threshold value. If it is, it is the point which is the conditions which drive | operate the said cogeneration apparatus on the driving | running condition used as the said present energy reduction ratio.
That is, the operation control means has regularity in energy consumption for each set period consisting of a plurality of unit times based on management data related to past time-series thermal load data or past time-series power load data. When regularity determination processing is performed to determine whether or not there is regularity in energy consumption for each set cycle, load cover condition operation processing is performed and regularity is set for energy consumption for each set cycle When it is determined that there is no load, a pre-operation process different from the load-covering condition operation process is executed.
As the preliminary operation process, for example, a power load following operation process for operating the combined heat and power device so as to cover the current power load currently required, or a fuel with a relatively low output such as 25% of the rated output power. By causing the battery to operate at a low output, it is possible to prevent a large heat surplus that may occur when the load-covering condition operation process is executed even though there is no regularity in energy consumption per set cycle. This makes it possible to perform preliminary operation processing.
Therefore, it has become possible to provide a cogeneration system that can be operated to improve energy saving.
Further, according to the second feature configuration, the operation control means includes a predicted amount of stored hot water stored as hot water in the hot water storage tank when operating the combined heat and power supply unit, and an estimated amount of energy consumed when operating the power plant and the heating boiler. And calculating a predicted energy reduction amount that is a difference between a predicted energy consumption amount when the cogeneration apparatus is operated and calculating a predicted energy reduction ratio that is a ratio of the predicted energy reduction amount to the predicted hot water storage amount Then, an energy reduction ratio threshold is set based on the calculated predicted energy reduction ratio.
In addition, the operation control means is a current energy reduction ratio for the increased output from the minimum output of the combined heat and power unit based on the power load data and heat load data on the operation day and the past power load data and heat load data. The current energy reduction ratio is calculated.
And when the operation control means controls the operation of the combined heat and power supply apparatus, if the current energy reduction ratio is smaller than the energy reduction ratio threshold using the energy reduction ratio threshold and the current energy reduction ratio, the operation control means If the combined heat and power unit is operated at the minimum output, and if the current energy reduction ratio is greater than or equal to the energy reduction ratio threshold, the combined heat and power unit is Operate under operating conditions that are the current energy reduction ratio Thus, energy saving can be achieved by setting the energy reduction ratio threshold value and controlling the operation of the cogeneration apparatus using this threshold value.
Therefore, it is possible to further promote the energy saving in the load cover condition operation process, and thus it is possible to operate so as to further improve the energy saving as a whole.

In addition to the first or second feature configuration, the third feature configuration is
The operation control means is
In the data management process, the heat load data is configured to manage a hot water supply heat load or a heating heat load,
In the regularity determination process, the variation for each set cycle with respect to the total amount of hot water supply thermal load for the set cycle, the variation for each set cycle with respect to the maximum value of the hot water supply thermal load for each unit time in the set cycle, Among the set cycles, variation for each set cycle for a time zone in which the hot water supply thermal load per unit time is maximum, variation for each set cycle for the heating heat load total amount of the set cycle, and power for the set cycle Variations in the set cycle for the total load, and the power load per unit time in the set cycle, the rated output power of the combined heat and power unit or less than the maximum output power for the set amount for the set cycle. When the preparatory operation process is executed when the energy saving rate when the load cover condition operation process is executed for the set period is varied. The frequency at which the energy efficiency is lower than the energy saving rate, the frequency at which the energy efficiency when executing the load-covering condition operation process for the set period is lower than the energy efficiency at the time of executing the preliminary operation process, and the load for the set period The frequency at which the energy reduction amount when executing the bridging condition operation process is smaller than the energy reduction amount when executing the preliminary operation process, or the economics when executing the load bridging condition operation process for the set period Is characterized in that it is configured to determine whether or not there is regularity in energy consumption for each set period, using as a determination index the frequency that is worse than the economic efficiency when the preliminary operation processing is performed. Do

That is, the total amount of hot water supply heat load in the set cycle includes the hot water supply heat load for hot water filling in the bathtub and the general hot water supply heat load for supplying hot water to places other than the bathtub, such as showers, kitchens, and washrooms. When the life pattern for each set cycle changes, the hot water supply heat load total amount for the set cycle changes accordingly.
Therefore, it is possible to appropriately determine whether or not there is regularity in energy consumption for each set period, using the variation for each set period with respect to the total amount of hot water supply heat load in the set period as a determination index.

The hot water supply heat load for hot water filling per unit time is considerably larger than the general hot water supply heat load for unit time per unit time. When it occurs, the maximum value of the hot water supply heat load per unit time in the set cycle changes.
Therefore, it is possible to appropriately determine whether or not there is regularity in energy consumption for each set cycle, using the variation for each set cycle with respect to the maximum value of the hot water supply thermal load per unit time in the set cycle as a determination index. It becomes possible.

The hot water supply heat load for hot water filling per unit time is considerably larger than the general hot water supply heat load for unit time, so the life pattern for each set cycle changes and the time zone for hot water filling changes. In the set cycle, the time zone in which the hot water supply heat load per unit time is maximum changes.
Therefore, whether or not there is regularity in energy consumption for each set cycle is determined using the variation for each set cycle for the time zone in which the hot water supply heat load per unit time is maximum in the set cycle as a discrimination index. It becomes possible to discriminate.

When the life pattern for each set cycle changes, the total amount of heating heat load in the set cycle changes accordingly.
Therefore, it is possible to appropriately determine whether or not there is regularity in energy consumption for each set cycle, using the variation for each set cycle with respect to the total heating heat load in the set cycle as a determination index.

When the life pattern for each set cycle changes, the total power load of the set cycle changes accordingly.
Therefore, it is possible to appropriately determine whether or not there is regularity in energy consumption for each set cycle, using the variation for each set cycle with respect to the total power load of the set cycle as a determination index.

If the life pattern for each set period changes, even if the total power load for the set period does not change significantly, the power load for each unit time will change significantly. The total amount of the combined heat and power device having a rated output power of less than or equal to or less than the maximum output power will change significantly.
Therefore, the energy consumption for each set cycle is determined using the variation for each set cycle with respect to the total amount of power load per unit time in the set cycle that is less than the rated output power or less than the maximum output power of the combined heat and power system as a discrimination index. It is possible to appropriately determine whether or not there is regularity.

When the difference between the predicted heat load and the actual heat load, or the difference between the predicted power load and the actual power load becomes large, the energy saving rate when the load cover condition operation process is executed for the set cycle executes the preliminary operation process Therefore, the frequency at which the energy saving rate when executing the load cover condition operation processing for the set cycle is lower than the energy saving rate when executing the preliminary operation processing is the energy consumption per set cycle. It reflects the degree of variation.
Therefore, whether there is regularity in energy consumption for each set cycle, using the frequency at which the energy saving rate when executing the load cover condition operation processing for the set cycle is lower than the energy saving rate when executing the preliminary operation processing as a discrimination index It is possible to appropriately determine whether or not.

When the difference between the predicted heat load and the actual heat load, or the difference between the predicted power load and the actual power load becomes large, the energy efficiency when the load-covering condition operation process is executed for the set cycle executes the preliminary operation process Therefore, the frequency at which the energy efficiency when executing the load-covering condition operation process for the set period is lower than the energy efficiency when executing the preliminary operation process is the energy consumption for each set period. It reflects the degree of variation.
Therefore, is there regularity in energy consumption for each set cycle, using as a discriminating index the frequency at which the energy efficiency when executing the load cover condition operation process for the set cycle is lower than the energy efficiency when executing the preliminary operation process? It is possible to appropriately determine whether or not.

When the difference between the predicted heat load and the actual heat load, or the difference between the predicted power load and the actual power load increases, the amount of energy saved when the load-covery condition operation process is executed for the set cycle executes the preliminary operation process. Therefore, the frequency at which the energy reduction amount when executing the load cover condition operation processing for the set cycle becomes smaller than the energy reduction amount when executing the preliminary operation processing is set for each set cycle. This reflects the degree of variation in energy consumption.
Therefore, the regularity of energy consumption for each set cycle is determined by using the frequency with which the energy reduction amount when executing the load cover condition operation processing for the set cycle is smaller than the energy reduction amount when executing the preliminary operation processing as a discrimination index. It is possible to appropriately determine whether or not there is.

When the difference between the predicted heat load and the actual heat load, or the difference between the predicted power load and the actual power load becomes large, the economics of executing the load-covering condition operation process for the set cycle performed the preliminary operation process Therefore, the frequency at which the economic efficiency when executing the cover condition operating process for the set period is worse than the economic efficiency when executing the preliminary operation process is the energy consumption per set period. It reflects the degree of variation.
Therefore, whether there is regularity in energy consumption for each set cycle, using the frequency at which the economic efficiency when executing the cover condition operating process for the set cycle is worse than that when executing the preliminary operation process as a discrimination index It is possible to appropriately determine whether or not.

  In short, it is possible to provide a suitable means that makes it possible to appropriately determine whether there is regularity in energy consumption for each set period.

The fourth feature configuration is:
The operation control means is
In the data management process, the heat load data is configured to manage a hot water supply heat load,
Based on the management data related to the past time-series hot water supply thermal load, when the variation in the set hot water supply heat load of the set cycle consisting of a plurality of unit times is small for each set cycle, the load cover condition operation processing is executed. And when the variation is large, it is configured to execute a preliminary operation process different from the load-covering condition operation process , and
By operating the combined heat and power supply device so as to cover the time-series predicted power load data, a heat shortage state in which heat is insufficient with respect to the time-series predicted heat load data, or the time It is configured to predict whether there will be excess heat with respect to the series of predicted heat load data,
When the load-covering operation condition does not predict either the heat shortage state or the heat surplus state, a power load follow-up operation process for operating the cogeneration device to cover the currently requested current power load is performed. When the heat shortage state is predicted, in a predetermined output increase target time zone, an output increase operation is performed to adjust the output of the combined heat and power unit to an output side larger than the current power load, or the heat surplus When the state is predicted, it is a condition that an output lowering operation is performed to adjust the output of the cogeneration device to an output side smaller than the current power load in a predetermined output lowering target time zone .

  That is, the operation control means manages the hot water supply thermal load as the thermal load data in the data management process, and based on the management data related to the past time-series hot water supply thermal load, When the variation for each set period is small, the load cover condition operation process is executed, and when the variation is large, the preliminary operation process different from the load cover condition operation process is executed.

That is, as described above in the description of the third characteristic configuration, when the life pattern changes, the hot water supply heat load total amount in the set cycle changes accordingly, so the setting for the hot water supply heat load total amount in the set cycle The degree of variation for each cycle reflects whether there is regularity in energy consumption for each set cycle.
When the variation in the set hot water supply heat load for each set cycle is large, the preliminary operation process is executed, so that when there is no regularity in energy consumption for each set cycle, The operation process can be executed.
As described above in the description of the first or second characteristic configuration, a large heat surplus that may be generated when the load-covering condition operation process is executed even though the energy consumption for each set period is not regular. Therefore, it is possible to perform the preliminary operation processing so as not to cause the problem.
Therefore, it has become possible to provide a cogeneration system that can be operated to improve energy saving.
According to the fourth feature configuration, since the operation control means manages the time-series power load and the time-series heat load, the power load following operation is performed with respect to the time-series power load. Whether or not a heat shortage state occurs in which heat is insufficient with respect to the time-series heat load, or whether a heat surplus state with excess heat occurs with respect to the time-series heat load It is possible to predict whether or not.
Then, the operation control means performs predetermined processing when a heat shortage state in which heat is insufficient with respect to the time-series heat load is predicted by performing power load following operation processing for the time-series power load. Since the output increase operation is performed in the output increase target time zone, it is possible to output larger heat than in the power load following operation process.
Therefore, since the large heat output by performing the output increase operation can cover the time-series heat load, the occurrence of a heat shortage state can be suppressed, and the hot water is stored in the hot water storage tank. When the hot water is not stored, the operation of the auxiliary heating boiler for heating the hot water can be avoided as much as possible, and energy saving can be promoted.
In addition, the operation control means performs a power load following operation process for the time-series power load, and when a surplus heat state in which heat remains for the time-series heat load is predicted, Since the output decrease operation is performed in the output decrease and increase target time zone, it is possible to output heat smaller than that in the power load following operation process.
Accordingly, by performing the output lowering operation, it is possible to prevent excessive output of heat with respect to the time-series heat load, so that it is possible to suppress the occurrence of the excessive heat state. It is possible to avoid as much as possible that the heat stored in the heat is only radiated, and energy saving can be promoted.
In short, it is possible to further promote energy saving in the operation processing under load-bearing conditions, and it has become possible to operate to further improve energy saving as a whole.
The fifth feature configuration is:
The operation control means is
In the data management process, the heat load data is configured to manage a hot water supply heat load,
Based on the management data related to the past time-series hot water supply thermal load, when the variation in the set hot water supply heat load of the set cycle consisting of a plurality of unit times is small for each set cycle, the load cover condition operation processing is executed. And when the variation is large, it is configured to execute a preliminary operation process different from the load-covering condition operation process, and
Predicted hot water storage amount stored as hot water in the hot water storage tank when operating the combined heat and power device, predicted consumed energy amount when operating a power plant and a heating boiler, and predicted predicted consumed energy amount when operating the combined heat and power device And calculating a predicted energy reduction ratio that is a ratio of the predicted energy reduction amount to the predicted hot water storage amount, and an energy reduction ratio threshold value based on the calculated predicted energy reduction ratio And the current energy reduction ratio for the increased output from the minimum output of the combined heat and power unit based on the power load data and heat load data on the operating day and the past power load data and heat load data. Configured to calculate a certain current energy reduction ratio,
When the load-covering operation condition is such that the current energy reduction ratio is smaller than the energy reduction ratio threshold value, the combined heat and power unit is operated at a minimum output, and the current energy reduction ratio is equal to or greater than the energy reduction ratio threshold value. If it is, it is the point which is the conditions which drive | operate the said cogeneration apparatus on the driving | running condition used as the said present energy reduction ratio.
That is, the operation control means manages the hot water supply thermal load as the thermal load data in the data management process, and based on the management data related to the past time-series hot water supply thermal load, When the variation for each set period is small, the load cover condition operation process is executed, and when the variation is large, the preliminary operation process different from the load cover condition operation process is executed.
That is, as described above in the description of the third characteristic configuration, when the life pattern changes, the hot water supply heat load total amount in the set cycle changes accordingly, so the setting for the hot water supply heat load total amount in the set cycle The degree of variation for each cycle reflects whether there is regularity in energy consumption for each set cycle.
When the variation in the set hot water supply heat load for each set cycle is large, the preliminary operation process is executed, so that when there is no regularity in energy consumption for each set cycle, The operation process can be executed.
As described above in the description of the first or second characteristic configuration, a large heat surplus that may be generated when the load-covering condition operation process is executed even though the energy consumption for each set period is not regular. Therefore, it is possible to perform the preliminary operation processing so as not to cause the problem.
Therefore, it has become possible to provide a cogeneration system that can be operated to improve energy saving.
Further, according to the fifth feature configuration, the operation control means includes an estimated amount of stored hot water stored as hot water in the hot water storage tank when the combined heat and power supply device is operated, and an estimated consumed energy amount when operating the power plant and the heating boiler. And calculating a predicted energy reduction amount that is a difference between a predicted energy consumption amount when the cogeneration apparatus is operated and calculating a predicted energy reduction ratio that is a ratio of the predicted energy reduction amount to the predicted hot water storage amount Then, an energy reduction ratio threshold value is set based on the calculated predicted energy reduction ratio.
In addition, the operation control means is a current energy reduction ratio for the increased output from the minimum output of the combined heat and power unit based on the power load data and heat load data on the operation day and the past power load data and heat load data. The current energy reduction ratio is calculated.
And when the operation control means controls the operation of the combined heat and power supply apparatus, if the current energy reduction ratio is smaller than the energy reduction ratio threshold using the energy reduction ratio threshold and the current energy reduction ratio, the operation control means If the combined heat and power unit is operated at the minimum output, and if the current energy reduction ratio is greater than or equal to the energy reduction ratio threshold, the combined heat and power unit is Operate under operating conditions that are the current energy reduction ratio Thus, energy saving can be achieved by setting the energy reduction ratio threshold value and controlling the operation of the cogeneration apparatus using this threshold value.
Therefore, it is possible to further promote the energy saving in the load cover condition operation process, and thus it is possible to operate so as to further improve the energy saving as a whole.

The sixth characteristic configuration, in addition to any one of the first to fifth characterizing feature described above,
The preliminary operation process is an electric power load follow-up operation process in which the cogeneration apparatus is operated so as to cover the currently requested current electric power load.

  That is, when it is determined that there is no regularity in energy consumption for each set cycle, as the preliminary operation processing, a power load follow-up operation is performed in which the cogeneration device is operated so as to cover the currently requested current power load. Therefore, even if the actual power load increases with respect to the predicted power load as the lifestyle pattern changes, the thermoelectric power for the actual power load is compared with the case where the load cover condition operation process is executed. It becomes possible to suppress the shortage of the output power of the cogeneration device, and even if the actual power load is less than the predicted power load, compared to the case where the load cover condition operation processing is executed, It is possible to suppress the output power of the combined heat and power supply apparatus from surpassing the actual power load.

By the way, when there is no regularity in the energy consumption for every setting period, an actual heat load will shift | deviate largely with respect to an estimated heat load.
On the other hand, changes in actual heat load accompanying changes in lifestyle patterns generally correspond to changes in actual power load associated with changes in lifestyle patterns. For example, when going out, the actual power load decreases, and the actual heat load also decreases. In addition, when the bedtime shifts, the time period when the actual power load becomes small shifts, and similarly, the time period when the actual heat load decreases also shifts.
If there is no regularity in energy consumption for each set cycle and the actual thermal load deviates significantly from the predicted thermal load, the load will be applied under the load-covering operating conditions set for the predicted thermal load. When the bridging condition operation process is executed, there is a possibility that a large heat surplus may be generated. It becomes possible.
Accordingly, it is possible to provide a specific example of a pre-operation process suitable for executing energy saving further when there is no regularity in energy consumption for each set cycle.

In addition to any of the first to fifth feature configurations described above, the seventh feature configuration is
Primary energy consumption when the preliminary operation process covers the insufficient power required by the difference between the currently requested current power load and the provisional power output of the cogeneration device set temporarily, by power purchase, and The power generation merit priority operation processing is characterized in that the combined heat and power device is operated with the power generation output that minimizes the sum of the primary energy consumption when the temporary power output is covered by the combined heat and power device.

  That is, when it is determined that there is no regularity in energy consumption for each set cycle, the preliminary operation processing is obtained from the difference between the currently requested current power load and the provisional power output of the cogeneration device set temporarily. A combined heat and power unit with a power generation output that minimizes the sum of primary energy consumption when power shortage is covered by power purchase and a sum of primary energy consumption when the temporary power generation output is covered by a combined heat and power unit The power generation merit priority operation process is performed.

In other words, when there is no regularity in energy consumption for each set cycle, the energy efficiency when the current power load is covered by power purchase and the energy efficiency when covered by the combined heat and power unit are considered together, and the energy efficiency is the highest. Therefore, the distribution ratio between the amount of power purchased for the current power load and the power generation output amount of the combined heat and power unit is obtained, and the combined heat and power unit is operated to generate the power of the distribution ratio. The combined heat and power device is operated so that the energy efficiency of the power supply becomes the highest while suppressing the excess and deficiency of the output power of the combined heat and power device.
Then, the power generation merit priority operation process is performed in such a way that the combined heat and power supply device is operated so as to suppress the excess and deficiency of the output power of the combined heat and power supply device with respect to the actual power load. Although there is no regularity, it is possible to prevent a large heat surplus that may occur when a load-covering condition operation process is executed.
Accordingly, it is possible to provide a specific example of a pre-operation process suitable for executing energy saving further when there is no regularity in energy consumption for each set cycle.

In addition to any of the first to seventh feature configurations described above, the eighth feature configuration is
As the setting period, there is a setting period of a plurality of time attributes that exist for each setting repetition period,
The operation control means is configured to manage the past time-series thermal load data and the past time-series power load data for each set period in association with the time attribute in the data management process. It is characterized by that.

  That is, in the data management process, the operation control means manages the past time-series thermal load data and the past time-series power load data in association with the time attribute for each set period, so that the load cover condition operation process Among the management data managed in the data management process, whether to execute the preliminary operation process or to determine whether to perform the load cover condition operation process or to stop the cogeneration device, It can be made to perform based on the data of the same time attribute as the time attribute of the set cycle of the operation target.

That is, in the location where the cogeneration system is installed, the life pattern may change for each time attribute, and the regularity of energy consumption for each set period may change for each time attribute. Incidentally, for example, the setting cycle is set to one day, the time attribute is set to the day of the week, and the setting repetition period is set to one week.
Therefore, as described above, it is determined whether to perform the load cover condition operation process or the preliminary operation process, or to determine whether to perform the load cover condition operation process or to stop the combined heat and power supply device. Whether to perform load-bearing condition operation processing, pre-operation processing, or load-bearing condition operation processing by making it based on data with the same time attribute as the time attribute of the set cycle Whether to stop the combined heat and power supply device can be performed in units of time attributes in accordance with changes in the regularity of energy consumption for each time attribute, and energy saving can be further improved.
Therefore, it has become possible to operate so as to further improve energy saving.

A cogeneration system according to the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.
[ Reference Embodiment]
As shown in FIGS. 1 and 2, this cogeneration system recovers heat output from the fuel cell 1 as a combined heat and power device and the fuel cell 1 with cooling water, and uses the cooling water. A hot water storage unit 4 as hot water storage means for storing hot water in the hot water storage tank 2 and supplying a heat medium to the heating terminal 3, an operation control unit 5 as operation control means for controlling the operation of the fuel cell 1 and the hot water storage unit 4, and the like. It is composed of

The fuel cell 1 is configured to be able to output electric power and heat and adjust its output. On the output side of the fuel cell 1, an inverter 6 for system linkage is provided. The inverter 6 is a fuel cell. 1 output power is configured to have the same voltage and the same frequency as the power supplied from the commercial system 7.
The commercial system 7 is, for example, a single-phase three-wire system 100/200 V, and is electrically connected to a power load device 9 such as a television, a refrigerator, or a washing machine via a commercial power supply line 8.
The inverter 6 is electrically connected to the commercial power supply line 8 via the cogeneration supply line 10, and the generated power from the fuel cell 1 is supplied to the power load device 9 via the inverter 6 and the cogeneration supply line 10. It is comprised so that it may supply.

The commercial power supply line 8 is provided with power load measuring means 11 for measuring the load power of the power load device 9, and the power load measuring means 11 has a reverse power flow in the current flowing through the commercial power supply line 8. It is also configured to detect whether or not it occurs.
Then, the electric power supplied from the fuel cell 1 to the commercial power supply line 8 is controlled by the inverter 6 so that a reverse power flow does not occur, and the surplus power of the generated power is obtained by replacing the surplus power with heat. It is configured to be supplied to the heater 12.

The electric heater 12 is composed of a plurality of electric heaters, and is provided so as to heat the cooling water of the fuel cell 1 flowing through the cooling water circulation path 13 by the operation of the cooling water circulation pump 15, and is connected to the output side of the inverter 6. ON / OFF is switched by the actuated switch 14.
The operation switch 14 is configured to adjust the power consumption of the electric heater 12 according to the amount of surplus power so that the power consumption of the electric heater 12 increases as the amount of surplus power increases. Yes.

  The hot water storage unit 4 is configured to store hot water in a state where temperature stratification is formed, a hot water circulation pump 17 that circulates hot water in the hot water storage tank 2 through the hot water circulation path 16, and hot water for heat source through the heat source circulation path 20. A heat source circulation pump 21 for circulation, a heat medium circulation pump 23 for circulating and supplying the heating medium to the heating terminal 3 through the heating medium circulation path 22, a hot water storage heat exchanger 24 for heating hot water flowing through the hot water circulation path 16, and a heat source The heat source heat exchanger 25 for heating the hot water for the heat source flowing through the circulation path 20, the heat exchanger for heat medium heating 26 for heating the heat medium flowing through the heating medium circulation path 22, and the fan 27 were operated. It comprises a heat exchanger 29 for auxiliary heating that heats hot water taken out from the hot water storage tank 2 by combustion of the burner 28 in the state and hot water for heat source flowing through the heat source circulation path 20.

The hot water circulation path 16 is branched and connected so that a part thereof is in parallel, a three-way valve 18 is provided at the connection location, and a radiator 19 is provided in the branched flow path. Yes.
Then, by switching the three-way valve 18, the hot water taken out from the lower part of the hot water storage tank 2 is circulated so as to pass through the radiator 19, and the hot water taken out from the lower part of the hot water storage tank 2 is circulated so as to bypass the radiator 19. It is comprised so that it may switch to the state to be made.

The hot water storage heat exchanger 24 is configured to heat the hot water flowing through the hot water circulation path 16 by flowing the cooling water of the cooling water circulation path 13 that has recovered the heat output from the fuel cell 1. Has been.
In the heat source heat exchanger 25, the heat source hot water flowing through the heat source circulation path 20 is heated by flowing the cooling water in the cooling water circulation path 13 that collects the heat output from the fuel cell 1. It is configured to let you.
The auxiliary heating boiler J includes a fan 27, a burner 28, and an auxiliary heating heat exchanger 29.
Further, the heat source circulation path 20 is provided with a heat source intermittent valve 40 for intermittently flowing the heat source hot water.

The cooling water circulation path 13 is branched into a hot water storage heat exchanger 24 side and a heat source heat exchanger 25 side, and the flow rate of the cooling water to be passed to the hot water storage heat exchanger 24 side and the heat source use are branched at the branch points. A diversion valve 30 is provided that adjusts the ratio of the flow rate of the cooling water that flows to the heat exchanger 25 side.
The diverter valve 30 allows the entire amount of cooling water in the cooling water circulation path 13 to flow to the hot water storage heat exchanger 24 side, or allows the entire amount of cooling water in the cooling water circulation path 13 to flow to the heat source heat exchanger 25 side. It is comprised so that it can also be made.

In the heat exchanger 26 for heating medium heating, the hot water for the heat source heated by the heat exchanger 25 for heat source or the heat exchanger 29 for auxiliary heating is allowed to flow, thereby flowing through the heat medium circulation path 22. The heating medium is configured to be heated.
The heating terminal 3 is composed of a heating terminal such as a floor heating device or a bathroom heating device.

  Further, a hot water supply heat load measuring means 31 for measuring the hot water supply heat load when supplying hot water taken out from the hot water storage tank 2 is provided, and a heating heat load measuring means 32 for measuring the heating heat load at the heating terminal 3 is also provided. ing. By the way, the hot water supply heat load is a combination of a hot water supply heat load for hot water filling a bathtub and a general hot water supply heat load for supplying hot water to places other than the bathtub, for example, a shower, a kitchen, a washroom, etc. .

  The operation control unit 5 controls the operation of the fuel cell 1 and the operation state of the cooling water circulation pump 15 while operating the cooling water circulation pump 15 during the operation of the fuel cell 1, as well as the hot water circulation pump 17 and the heat source. By controlling the operation state of the circulation pump 21 and the heat medium circulation pump 23, the hot water storage operation for storing hot water in the hot water storage tank 2 and the heat medium supply operation for supplying the heat medium to the heating terminal 3 are performed. ing.

Incidentally, when hot water is supplied, the hot water taken out from the hot water storage tank 2 is supplied with the heat source intermittent valve 40 closed, and the hot water taken out from the hot water storage tank 2 is heated by the auxiliary heating boiler J, Water is mixed with hot water taken out from the hot water storage tank 2, and hot water having a hot water supply set temperature set by a remote controller (not shown) is supplied.
Therefore, in the hot water storage tank 2, hot water is stored within the capacity of the hot water storage tank 2 by subtracting the hot water extracted for hot water supply from the hot water added according to the output of the fuel cell 1. become.

First, the control of the operation of the fuel cell 1 by the operation control unit 5 will be described.
The operation control unit 5 includes a data management process for managing past time-series heat load data and past time-series power load data, and time-series predicted heat load data obtained based on the management data. In addition, a load cover operation condition for operating the fuel cell 1 to cover the time-series predicted power load data is set, and the load cover condition operation process for operating the fuel cell 1 under the load cover operation condition is set. Execute.

In this embodiment, the operation control unit 5 is configured to manage the hot water supply heat load as the thermal load data in the data management process, and the management data regarding the past time-series hot water supply heat load is used. Based on the total amount of hot water supply heat load in the set cycle, the lower limit value in a range that may occur with a probability higher than the set in the distribution in a plurality of set cycles (that is, may be referred to as the set probability generation range). When the lower limit value of the set probability generation range is higher than the judgment reference value for operation stop, execute the operation to cover the load condition. The fuel cell 1 is stopped when the lower limit value of the set probability generation range is equal to or less than the operation stop determination reference value.
Further, the operation control unit 5 executes the load cover condition operation process when the variation in the set cycle with respect to the total hot water supply heat load in the set cycle is small based on the management data on the past time-series hot water supply thermal load. When the variation is large, a preliminary operation process different from the load cover condition operation process is executed.

That is, in this embodiment, when the lower limit value of the set probability generation range is higher than the operation stop determination reference value, the load supply condition operation processing is not executed unconditionally, but the hot water supply heat load total amount in the set cycle When the variation for each set period is small, specifically, when the upper limit value of the set probability generation range is smaller than the judgment reference value for preliminary operation processing, the load cover condition operation processing is executed. is there.
Further, in this embodiment, the operation control unit 5 is configured to execute a power load following operation process for operating the fuel cell 1 so as to cover the currently requested current power load as the preliminary operation process. It is.

  In addition, the operation control unit 5 operates the fuel cell 1 so as to cover the time-series predicted power load data, so that it becomes a heat shortage state in which heat is insufficient with respect to the time-series predicted heat load data. The time-series predicted heat load data is configured to predict whether there will be a surplus heat state with excess heat, and the load-covering operation condition is predicted for both a heat shortage state and a heat surplus state. If not, a normal power load follow-up operation process is performed. When a heat shortage state is predicted, the output of the fuel cell 1 is adjusted to an output side larger than the current power load in a predetermined output increase target time zone. When an output increase operation is performed and a surplus heat state is predicted, a condition for performing an output decrease operation for adjusting the output of the fuel cell 1 to an output side smaller than the current power load is set in a predetermined output decrease target time zone. It is.

Incidentally, the heat shortage state means that, for example, hot water is not stored in the hot water storage tank 2 and the auxiliary heating boiler J is operated, or heating is performed only by the heat output from the fuel cell 1 during the heating medium supply operation. In this state, the heating heat load required by the terminal 3 cannot be covered.
The excess heat state is, for example, a state where hot water stored in the hot water storage tank 2 is full and the radiator 19 is operated, or the heat output from the fuel cell 1 during the heating medium supply operation is a heating terminal. 3, the hot water stored in the hot water storage tank 2 is full, and the radiator 19 is activated.

First, the power load following operation process will be described.
In the power load following operation process, the output of the fuel cell 1 is adjusted in accordance with the current power load within a range from a minimum output (for example, 250 W) to a maximum output (for example, 1 kW).
In other words, the operation control unit 5 obtains the current power load based on the measured value of the power load measuring unit 11 and the output value of the inverter 6, and is smaller by α (for example, 100W) than the current power load. The output of the fuel cell 1 is adjusted so as to be output.
For example, as shown in FIG. 3, when the current power load changes with time, the output of the fuel cell 1 is changed according to the change of the current power load at an output that is smaller by α (for example, 100 W) than the current power load. The output is adjusted.
Incidentally, the operation control unit 5 is configured to change the output of the fuel cell 1 based on an average value of a set time zone (for example, 5 minutes) of the current power load.

Next, a description will be given of data management processing for managing past time-series power load data and past time-series heat load data.
The operation control unit 5 has, for example, a set cycle of 1 day, a unit time of 1 hour, a heat load as a hot water supply heat load and a heating heat load, an actual power load per unit time, an actual hot water supply heat load, and Each of the actual heating heat load is measured by the power load measuring means 11 and the output value of the inverter 6, the hot water supply heat load measuring means 31, and the heating heat load measuring means 32.
The operation control unit 5 associates the output values of the power load measuring means 11 and the inverter 6, the values measured by the hot water supply heat load measuring means 31, and the heating heat load measuring means 32 with the set period and unit time. The past time-series power load data and the past time-series heat load data are associated with each unit time for each set period over a set period (for example, 4 weeks before the operation day). Are configured to manage.

And the said operation control part 5 is based on the management data of the past time-sequential power load data and the past time-sequential heat load data, and the time-sequential power load and time for every unit time within the set cycle. A time series predicted heat load data and time series predicted power load data are obtained by predicting a series heat load.
For example, a case where the set cycle is one day and the unit time is one hour will be described as an example. As shown in FIG. I try to predict if there is a load.
In the following description, it is assumed that the set cycle is 1 day and the unit time is 1 hour.

  Next, a description will be given of the operation state selection control for selecting an operation state for executing the load-covering condition operation process or the preliminary operation process. By the way, in this embodiment, in the operation state selection control, the operation state for stopping the fuel cell 1 is added to the operation state for executing the load cover condition operation process and the operation state for executing the preliminary operation process. The operation state is selected.

First, the operation control unit 5 obtains the average value M and the standard deviation σ of the total amount of hot water supply heat load per day within the set period based on management data related to past time-series hot water supply heat load data, and sets the setting. The lower limit value of the probability generation range is set to (M−3σ), and the upper limit value is set to (M + 3σ).
In other words, the set probability generation range is a range that may occur with a probability of about 99%, which is the set probability.
Then, the operation control unit 5 compares the lower limit value (M−3σ) of the set probability generation range with the determination reference value Ka (M) for operation stop, and the lower limit value (M−3σ) of the set probability generation range is When the operation stop determination reference value Ka (M) is higher and the upper limit value (M + 3σ) of the set probability generation range is lower than the preliminary operation process determination reference value Kb (M), the hot water supply thermal load of the set cycle It is determined that the variation in the set period for the total amount is small, the load cover condition operation process is executed, and the lower limit value (M−3σ) of the set probability generation range is equal to or less than the operation stop determination reference value Ka (M) When it is determined that the variation in the set cycle of the hot water supply thermal load for each set cycle is large on the side where the hot water supply thermal load is small, the fuel cell 1 is stopped, and the upper limit (M + 3σ) of the set probability generation range is Judgment reference value Kb (M ) In the above case, it is determined that the variation in the set cycle with respect to the total amount of hot water supply thermal load for each set cycle is large on the side where the total amount of hot water supply heat load is large, and the power load follow-up operation process is executed as the preliminary operation process.

  Incidentally, each of the operation stop determination reference value Ka (M) and the preliminary operation processing determination reference value Kb (M) is set in accordance with the average value M of the total hot water supply heat load during the set period. The operation control unit 5 stores the operation stop determination reference value Ka (M) and the preliminary operation processing determination reference value Kb (M) in association with the average value M. Hereinafter, an example of setting of the operation stop determination reference value Ka (M) and the preliminary operation processing determination reference value Kb (M) will be described.

The relationship between the energy saving rate y and the hot water supply heat load x is expressed by the following equation (1).
y = {(A + x ÷ η) − (B + Z)} ÷ (A + x ÷ η) (1)

here,
A: Power plant primary energy conversion value of predicted power load η: Efficiency of conventional heating boiler (for example, 0.7)
x ÷ η: Energy amount of a conventional heating boiler with a predicted hot water supply heat load B: Amount of energy required for the fuel cell 1 + a converted primary energy value of a power plant from a commercial system 7 Z: Amount of energy required for the auxiliary heating boiler J

  When the amount of heat generated in the fuel cell 1 is C, the required energy conversion amount Z of the auxiliary heating boiler J is Z = when the predicted hot water supply heat load is covered by the amount of heat C generated in the fuel cell 1 Z = When the predicted hot water supply heat load is 0 and the amount of heat C generated by the fuel cell 1 cannot be covered, Z = x ÷ η−C.

Therefore,
When Z = 0
y = 1− {B ÷ (A + x ÷ η)}
And
When Z = x ÷ η−C,
y = (A−B + C) ÷ (A + x ÷ η)
It becomes.

  When the predicted power load amount on the operation day is determined, the efficiency of the fuel cell 1 is known, so A, B, and C are constants.

  FIG. 13 is a graph showing the relationship between the energy saving rate y and the hot water supply thermal load x when the current power load is 750 W and the output of the fuel cell 1 is operated at 750 W, 500 W, and 1000 W. Incidentally, FIG. 13 is an example of the case of the fuel cell 1 having an output power range of 500 to 1000 W.

  The hot water supply heat load at the intersection of the graph when the 750 W current power load is operated to output 750 W and the graph when the 750 W current power load is operated to output 500 W is about 16000 Wh. Therefore, when the total amount of hot water supply heat load per day is greater than 16000 Wh, the energy saving rate is higher when the operation is performed to output 750 W with respect to the current power load of 750 W, and the total amount of hot water supply heat load per day Is less than 16000 Wh, the energy saving rate is higher when the operation is performed to output 500 W with respect to the current power load of 750 W.

For example, when the predicted total hot water supply heat load on the operation day is 14000 Wh, even if the current power load is 750 W, the energy saving rate will be lower if operation is performed to output 750 W, so that it is smaller than the current power load of 750 W. The operation condition for providing a load is set so as to drive at the output.
However, when the variation in the total amount of hot water supply heat load per day is large and the actual hot water supply heat load is larger than 16000 Wh, the power load follow-up process is executed to operate to output 750 W to the current power load of 750 W. It becomes possible to increase the energy saving rate.

Therefore, for example, when the average value M of the total hot water supply heat load per day is 14000 Wh, the preliminary operation processing determination reference value Kb (M) is set to 16000 Wh.
And, in the variation for each set cycle with respect to the total hot water supply heat load in the set cycle, the variation on the side where the total hot water heat load is large is large, and the upper limit (M + 3σ) of the set probability generation range is the judgment reference value for preliminary operation When Kb (M) is equal to or greater than 16000 Wh, the power load follow-up operation process as the preliminary operation process is executed, and energy saving can be improved.

Also, when the total amount of hot water supply heat load per day is less than 5000 Wh, energy saving cannot be achieved even if the output is made smaller than the current power load so that 500 W is output to the current power load of 750 W. Therefore, the determination reference value Ka (M) for operation stop is set to 5000 Wh.
And in the variation for every set cycle about the hot water supply heat load total amount of a set cycle, the variation in the side with little hot water supply heat load amount is large, and the lower limit (M-3σ) of the set probability generation range is a judgment criterion for operation stop. When the value is equal to or less than Ka (M), the fuel cell 1 is stopped, and energy saving can be improved.

Next, a series of control operations by the operation control unit 5 when controlling the operation of the fuel cell 1 will be described based on the flowchart shown in FIG.
First, the lower limit value (M-3σ) of the set probability generation range is compared with the operation stop determination reference value Ka (M) (step A1), and the lower limit value (M-3σ) of the set probability generation range is operated. When it is equal to or less than the stop determination reference value Ka (M), the fuel cell 1 is stopped (step A2) and the process returns, and the lower limit (M-3σ) of the set probability generation range is the operation stop determination reference value Ka ( When higher than M), the upper limit value (M + 3σ) of the set probability generation range is compared with the judgment reference value Kb (M) for preliminary operation processing (step A3), and the upper limit value (M + 3σ) of the set probability generation range Is equal to or higher than the judgment reference value Kb (M) for the preliminary operation process, the power load following operation process is executed as the preliminary operation process (step 13), and the process returns and the upper limit value (M + 3σ) of the set probability generation range is Judgment reference value Kb (M) for preliminary operation processing When remote low executes the load catering condition operation process.

Hereinafter, a detailed control operation of the load cover condition operation process will be described with reference to FIGS.
5-7 is a figure which shows the processing flow of this embodiment, and in FIGS. 8-12, (a) is the calorie | heat amount (to be stored in the hot water storage tank 2 in each setting time slot | zone (i) ( Hereinafter, a diagram showing the output F (i) of the fuel cell 1 in each unit time (i) as a calculation condition of “predicted heat storage amount” and (b) are calculation under the calculation condition. It is a figure which shows the estimated heat storage amount T (i) in each unit time (i) which is a result. 8 to 12, the heat storage amount T (0) corresponding to the unit time (i = 0) indicates the heat amount stored in the hot water storage tank 2 at the present time.

  As shown in FIG. 5, the operation control unit 5 sets the output F (i) of the fuel cell 1 at each unit time (i) to an output f set during the power load following operation process. A predicted heat storage amount T (i) in i) is obtained (step 10).

Specifically, the operation control unit 5 is first added to the hot water storage tank 2 in each unit time (i) from the electric power load and the thermal load predicted in each unit time (i) in the above step 10. The amount of heat (hereinafter referred to as “additional heat amount”) is obtained. This additional heat amount is a heat load from the sum of the heat amount output according to the output F (i) of the fuel cell 1 and the heat output from the electric heater 12 according to the surplus power within the unit time (i). When the additional heat amount is positive, the amount of heat stored in the hot water storage tank 2 is increased. When the additional heat amount is negative, the heat amount stored in the hot water storage tank 2 is decreased. .
Next, the operation control means 5 is selected in order from the earliest unit time (i = 1), and in each unit time (i), when the previous unit time (i-1) has elapsed, the hot water storage tank 2 The amount of heat stored in (the amount of heat currently stored in the hot water storage tank 2 in the earliest unit time (i = 1)) plus the additional amount of heat obtained as described above is used as the amount of heat stored in the predicted heat storage amount T ( i).

When the predicted heat storage amount T (i) exceeds the maximum heat storage amount tmax that can be stored in the hot water storage tank 2, that is, when it is necessary to operate the radiator 19, the unit time (i) is heated. When the remaining state can be identified as the predicted unit time (i = ful) and the predicted heat storage amount T (i) is less than the minimum heat storage amount tmin (for example, 0) to be stored in the hot water storage tank 2, that is, auxiliary heating When it is necessary to operate the boiler J, the unit time (i) can be specified as a set time zone (i = emp) in which a heat shortage state is predicted.
Further, the amount of heat (hereinafter referred to as “effective heat storage amount”) T ′ (i) effectively stored in the hot water storage tank 2 in each unit time (i) is the predicted heat storage amount T (i). Is within the range between the minimum heat storage amount tmin and the maximum heat storage amount tmax that can be stored in the hot water storage tank 2, the predicted heat storage amount T (i) is used, but the predicted heat storage amount T (i) is the hot water storage tank. When the maximum heat storage amount tmax that can be stored in 2 is exceeded, the maximum heat storage amount tmax is set. When the predicted heat storage amount is lower than the minimum heat storage amount tmin to be stored in the hot water storage tank 2, the minimum heat storage amount tmin is set.

  Next, the operation control unit 5 refers to the predicted heat storage amount T (i) in each unit time (i) obtained in step 10 as described above, and specifies the unit time in which a heat excess state or a heat shortage state occurs. Then, it is first determined whether or not the heat surplus state is reached, and further whether or not the heat is insufficient is first determined (steps 11 and 12).

  When the heat surplus state first occurs, the output lowering operation determination process (step) for determining whether or not to perform the output lowering operation in the earliest unit time (i = 1) will be described later in detail. 100), and when the heat shortage state first occurs, the output increasing operation for determining whether or not to perform the output increasing operation in the earliest unit time (i = 1) will be described in detail later. When the determination process (step 200) is executed and neither the excessive heat state nor the insufficient heat state occurs, it is determined that the normal power load follow-up operation process is performed in the earliest unit time (i = 1) (step 13). ).

Hereinafter, the case where it is determined to perform the normal power load follow-up operation process in the earliest set time zone (i = 1) will be described based on FIG.
As shown in FIG. 8A, under the condition that the output F (i) of the fuel cell 1 in each unit time (i) is the output f set in the power load following operation process, in each unit time (i). As a result of obtaining the predicted heat storage amount T (i), as shown in FIG. 8B, the predicted heat storage amount T (i) is not less than the minimum heat storage amount tmin and not more than the maximum heat storage amount tmax in each unit time (i). When it falls within the range, that is, when the heat surplus state and the heat shortage state do not occur, it is determined to perform the power load following operation process in the earliest unit time (i = 1).

  In addition, referring to the predicted heat storage amount T (i) in each unit time (i) obtained in step 10 of FIG. 5 without performing the output increase operation determination process and the output decrease operation determination process, In the case of a heat surplus state, it is determined to perform the output lowering operation in the earliest unit time (i = 1). In the case of the heat shortage state first, in the earliest unit time (i = 1). You may comprise so that it may determine performing an output raise operation.

Next, the output decreasing operation determination process will be described with reference to FIG.
In the output decrease operation determination process, the operation control unit 5 first sets the output F (1) of the fuel cell 1 in the earliest unit time (i = 1) as the output fmin set during the output decrease operation, and other unit times. Under the condition that the output F (i = 2 to 24) of the fuel cell 1 at (i = 2 to 24) is the output f set during the power load following operation processing, the predicted heat storage amount T ( i) is obtained (step 101).
Then, with reference to the predicted heat storage amount T (i) obtained in this way, it is determined whether or not a heat shortage state occurs when the output decreasing operation is performed in the earliest unit time (i = 1) ( Step 102) When the heat shortage state does not occur, it is decided to perform the output lowering operation in the earliest unit time (i = 1) (Step 103). It is determined to perform the power load following operation process while prohibiting the output decreasing operation in the unit time (i = 1) (step 104).

Hereinafter, in the output decrease operation determination process, a case where it is determined to perform the power load follow-up operation process while prohibiting the output decrease operation in the earliest unit time (i = 1) is based on FIGS. 9 and 10. Add explanation.
As shown in FIG. 9A, under the condition that the output F (i) of the fuel cell 1 in each unit time (i) is the output f set in the power load following operation process, in each unit time (i). As a result of obtaining the predicted heat storage amount T (i), the output decreasing operation is performed when the heat surplus state first occurs as in the heat storage amount T (17) of the unit time (i = 17) shown in FIG. Judgment processing is performed.
Then, in the output decreasing operation determination process, as shown in FIG. 10A, the output F (i) of the fuel cell 1 in the earliest unit time (i = 1) is set as the output fmin set during the output decreasing operation. As a result of obtaining the predicted heat storage amount T (i) in each unit time (i) under the conditions, the heat storage amounts T (19) and T (20) in the unit time (i = 19, 20) shown in FIG. As described above, when the heat shortage state occurs, in the earliest unit time (i = 1), it is determined to perform the power load following operation process while prohibiting the output decreasing operation. .

  In step 102 of the output decreasing operation determination process, the unit time when the output decreasing operation is performed in the earliest unit time (i = 1) is the power load following operation in each unit time (i). Only when it is before the unit time (i = ful) when the process is overheated, the power descending operation is prohibited by prohibiting the output decreasing operation in the earliest unit time (i = 1). You may comprise so that it may determine to perform a process.

Next, the output increase operation determination process will be described with reference to FIG.
In the output increase operation determination process, the operation control unit 5 performs the fuel cell from the earliest unit time (i = 1) to the unit time (i = emp) in which the heat load is insufficient when the power load following operation process is performed. The output F (1 to emp) of 1 is set to the output fmax set at the time of the output increasing operation, and the output F (emp +1 to 24) of the fuel cell 1 in the other unit time (i = emp + 1 to 24) is the power load following operation processing. A predicted heat storage amount T (i) in each unit time (i) is obtained under the condition of the output f set at the time (step 201).
Then, referring to the predicted heat storage amount T (i) obtained in this way, the unit time (i =) when the power load follow-up operation process is performed from the earliest unit time (i = 1). emp) when the output up / down operation is performed, the unit time that becomes a heat surplus state is the unit time (i = emp) when the power load following operation processing is performed in each unit time (i). ) Is determined (step 202).
Then, if the unit time that becomes a heat surplus state in the unit time (i = 1 to emp) is not in front of the unit time (i = emp) that is in a heat shortage state, the earliest. Unit time (i = 1) is determined to perform the output increase operation (step 203), while, when the output increase operation is performed in the unit time (i = 1 to emp), the unit time in which a heat surplus state occurs. Is before the unit time (i = emp) in which the heat is insufficient, prohibiting the output increase operation in the earliest unit time (i = 1) and performing the power load following operation process Is determined (step 204).

Hereinafter, in the output increase operation determination process, a case where it is determined to perform the power load following operation process in the earliest unit time (i = 1) will be described based on FIGS. 11 and 12.
As shown in FIG. 11 (a), under the condition that the output F (i) of the fuel cell 1 at each unit time (i) is the output f set during the power load follow-up operation process, at each unit time (i). As a result of obtaining the predicted heat storage amount T (i), as shown in FIG. 11 (b), the heat storage amount T (19) and T (20) in the unit time (i = 19, 20), In such a case, an output increase operation determination process is performed.
In the output increase operation determination process, as shown in FIG. 12 (A), when the power load following operation process is performed from the earliest unit time (i = 1) to each unit time (i), The estimated heat storage amount in each unit time (i) under the condition that the outputs F (1) to F (19) of the fuel cell 1 up to the unit time (i = 19) become the output fmax set during the output increasing operation. As a result of obtaining T (i), the output increasing operation is performed in unit time (i = 1 to 19), such as the heat storage amount T (5) in unit time (i = 5) shown in FIG. If the unit time (i = 5) in which the heat is excessive is in front of the unit time (i = 19) in which the heat is insufficient, the output is output in the earliest unit time (i = 1). Since it is prohibited to perform ascending operation, it is decided to perform power load following operation processing. That.

Next, description will be made on operations of the hot water storage operation and the heat medium supply operation by the operation control unit 5.
In the hot water storage operation, when the cooling water circulation pump 15 is operated during operation of the fuel cell 1, hot water flowing through the hot water circulation path 16 is cooled by the cooling water flowing through the cooling water circulation path 13 in the hot water storage heat exchanger 24. It is performed in a state where it can be heated.
And the hot water extracted from the lower part of the hot water storage tank 2 is switched to the state which circulates so that the radiator 19 may be bypassed, the hot water circulation pump 17 is operated, and hot water is supplied from the lower part of the hot water storage tank 2 to the hot water circuit. The hot water is taken out through the hot water storage heat exchanger 24 and heated, and then returned to the upper part of the hot water storage tank 2 so that the hot water is stored in the hot water storage tank 2.

  By the way, in hot water storage operation, when the hot water stored in the hot water storage tank 2 is full of hot water, the three-way valve is circulated so that the hot water taken out from the lower part of the hot water storage tank 2 passes through the radiator 19. 18, the radiator 19 is operated, the hot water taken out from the lower part of the hot water storage tank 2 is radiated by the radiator 19, and then heated through the hot water storage heat exchanger 24.

  In the heat medium supply operation, when the remote controller (not shown) instructs that heat is required at the heating terminal 3, the heat source circulation pump 21 and the heat medium circulation in a state where the heat source intermittent valve 40 is opened. The pump 23 is operated to heat the heat source hot water in at least one of the heat source heat exchanger 25 and the auxiliary heating heat exchanger 29, and the heated heat source hot water is heat exchanged for heat medium heating. The heat medium is circulated while passing through the heat exchanger 26, and the heat medium heated by the heat source hot water in the heat medium heating heat exchanger 26 is circulated and supplied to the heat consuming terminal 3.

When heating the hot water for the heat source is added, when the fuel cell 1 is in operation, the cooling in a state in which the cooling water is adjusted by the diversion valve 30 so that the cooling water flows to the heat exchanger 25 side of the heat source. By operating the water circulation pump 15, the heat source heat exchanger 25 is configured to heat the hot water for the heat source.
Further, when the cooling water from the fuel cell 1 alone cannot cover the current heating heat load required by the heating terminal 3, or when the fuel cell 1 is not in operation, the auxiliary heating boiler J is heated. By operating, the auxiliary heating heat exchanger 29 is configured to heat the hot water for the heat source.

  Incidentally, when performing the hot water storage operation and the heating medium supply operation at the same time during the operation of the fuel cell 1, the operation control unit 5 is based on the current heating heat load required by the heat consuming terminal 3. At 30, the ratio of the flow rate of the cooling water to be passed to the hot water storage heat exchanger 24 side and the flow rate of the cooling water to be passed to the heat source heat exchanger 25 side is adjusted.

First Embodiment
Hereinafter, although 1st Embodiment is described, since this 1st Embodiment shows another embodiment of driving | running state selection control, it adds mainly description about the driving | running state selection control, and is a reference embodiment. The description of the same configuration as in FIG.

Also in the first embodiment, similarly to the reference embodiment, the operation control unit 5 is configured to manage a hot water supply heat load as the heat load data in the data management process, and the operation state As the selection control, based on the management data on the past time-series hot water supply heat load, when the variation in the set cycle with respect to the total amount of hot water supply heat load in the set cycle is small, the load cover condition operation process is executed, and the variation is When it is large, it is configured to execute a preliminary operation process different from the load cover condition operation process, but the data processing method for determining the size of the variation is different from the reference embodiment. In the first embodiment as well, as in the reference embodiment, the operation control unit 5 is configured to execute the power load following operation process as the preliminary operation process.

That is, the operation control unit 5 obtains the average value M and the standard deviation σ of the total amount of hot water supply heat load per day within the set period based on the management data related to past time-series hot water supply heat load data, and sets the setting. The lower limit value of the probability generation range is set to (M−3σ), and the upper limit value is set to (M + 3σ).
Moreover, the average value M of the hot water supply thermal load for one day within the set period is multiplied by the lower limit allowable value setting coefficient Ta to obtain the lower limit allowable value M × Ta, and the total amount of hot water supply thermal load for the day within the set period is calculated. The average value M is multiplied by an upper limit allowable value setting coefficient Tb to obtain an upper limit allowable value M × Tb.

  Then, the operation control unit 5 determines that the lower limit value (M−3σ) of the set probability generation range is larger than the lower limit allowable value M × Ta and the upper limit value (M + 3σ) of the set probability generation range is the upper limit allowable value M × Tb. Is smaller than the hot water supply heat load total amount of the set cycle, it is determined that the variation for each set cycle is small, the load cover condition operation processing is executed, and the lower limit value (M-3σ) of the set probability generation range is When the lower limit allowable value M × Ta or less, or when the upper limit value (M + 3σ) of the set probability generation range is equal to or higher than the upper limit allowable value M × Tb, there is a large variation in the set cycle with respect to the hot water supply thermal load total amount of the set cycle And the power load following operation process is executed as the preliminary operation process.

Incidentally, the lower limit permissible value setting coefficient Ta and the upper limit permissible value setting coefficient Tb are suitable for the load cover condition operation process and the power load following operation process as the preliminary operation process in order to improve energy saving. It is set so that it can be selected, and may be fixedly set or may be updated.
When the lower limit allowable value setting coefficient Ta and the upper limit allowable value setting coefficient T are fixedly set, for example, the lower limit allowable value setting coefficient Ta is set to 0.4 to 0.7, and the upper limit allowable value setting coefficient Tb is set. Is set to 1.3 to 1.6.

FIG. 25 shows the average value and standard deviation of the hot water supply heat load per unit time within the set period, and the average value and standard deviation of the total amount of hot water supply load per day within the set period for each of the house a and house b. FIG.
The setting probability generation range where the lower limit value is (M-3σ) and the upper limit value is (M + 3σ) is narrower for the house B than the house a, and the house B is set for the total hot water heat load of the set cycle. It can be seen that there is little variation in each cycle, and there is regularity in energy consumption for each set cycle.

Next, a series of control operations by the operation control unit 5 when controlling the operation of the fuel cell 1 will be described based on the flowchart shown in FIG.
First, the lower limit value (M-3σ) of the set probability generation range is compared with the lower limit allowable value M × Ta (step B1), and the lower limit value (M-3σ) of the set probability generation range is the lower limit allowable value M ×. When it is equal to or lower than Ta, a power load follow-up operation process is executed as the preliminary operation process (step 13), the process returns, and the lower limit value (M-3σ) of the set probability generation range is larger than the lower limit allowable value M × Ta. When the upper limit value (M + 3σ) of the set probability generation range is compared with the upper limit allowable value M × Tb (step B2), and the upper limit value (M + 3σ) of the set probability generation range is equal to or greater than the upper limit allowable value M × Tb Performs a power load following operation process as the preliminary operation process (step 13), returns, and when the upper limit value (M + 3σ) of the set probability generation range is smaller than the upper limit allowable value M × Tb, Run the operation process.
Note that the detailed control operation of the load cover condition operation process is the same as that in the above-described reference embodiment, and thus the description thereof is omitted.

[ Second Embodiment]
Hereinafter, although 2nd Embodiment is described, since this 2nd Embodiment shows another embodiment of each of driving | running state selection control and load cover condition driving | running processing, these driving | running state selection control and load cover mainly A description of the conditional operation process will be added, and the description of the same configuration as the reference embodiment will be omitted.

The operation state selection control of the second embodiment executes regularity determination processing for determining whether or not there is regularity in energy consumption for each set period consisting of a plurality of unit times based on management data, When it is determined that the energy consumption has regularity, the load cover condition operation process is executed, and when it is determined that the energy consumption has no regularity, the preliminary operation process is executed. The regularity determination process is performed by determining a variation for each set period with respect to a maximum value (hereinafter sometimes referred to as a maximum hot water supply thermal load per unit time) of hot water supply thermal loads per unit time in the set period. As described above, it is configured to determine whether or not the energy consumption for each set period has regularity.
In the second embodiment, as in the reference embodiment, the operation control unit 5 is configured to execute the power load following operation process as the preliminary operation process.

In other words, the operation control unit 5 is configured to manage a hot water supply thermal load as the thermal load data in the data management process.
Specifically, the operation control unit 5 associates the hot water supply heat load for each unit time (1 hour) with the unit time for each set period (1 day) over a set period (for example, 4 weeks before the operation day). Manage.

  Then, in the regularity determination process, the operation control unit 5 selects the maximum hot water supply thermal load per unit time from the hot water supply thermal loads per unit time in each setting cycle, and sets the maximum hot water supply thermal load per unit time. Whether or not there is regularity in energy consumption for each set period is determined using the variation for each period as a discrimination index.

Specifically, within the set period, the maximum hot water supply thermal load per unit time in each set period is averaged to obtain an average value M of the maximum hot water supply thermal load per unit time within the set period, and the maximum per unit time Obtain the standard deviation σ of the hot water supply heat load.
Then, the lower limit value of the regularity discrimination distribution range is set to (M−3σ), and the upper limit value is set to (M + 3σ).
In addition, the lower limit allowable value M × Ta is obtained by multiplying the average value M of the maximum hot water supply thermal load per unit time within the set period by the lower limit allowable value setting coefficient Ta, and the maximum hot water supply thermal load per unit time within the set period is obtained. The average value M is multiplied by an upper limit allowable value setting coefficient Tb to obtain an upper limit allowable value M × Tb.

  Then, the operation control unit 5 determines that the lower limit value (M−3σ) of the regularity determination distribution range is larger than the lower limit allowable value M × Ta and the upper limit value (M + 3σ) of the regularity determination distribution range is upper limit allowable. When the value is smaller than the value M × Tb, it is determined that the variation in the set cycle for the maximum hot water supply thermal load per unit time is small, and that the energy consumption for each set cycle is regular, the load cover condition operation processing And the lower limit value (M-3σ) of the regularity determination distribution range is equal to or lower than the lower limit allowable value M × Ta, or the upper limit value (M + 3σ) of the regularity determination distribution range is the upper limit allowable value M × Tb. When the above, it is determined that there is a large variation in the set cycle for the maximum hot water supply thermal load per unit time and there is no regularity in energy consumption for each set cycle, and the power load follow-up operation process is performed as the preliminary operation process. Execute.

Incidentally, the lower limit allowable value setting coefficient Ta and the upper limit allowable value setting coefficient Tb may be fixedly set, or may be updated, as in the first embodiment. good.

In the second embodiment, the operation control unit 70 as operation control means operates the predicted amount of stored hot water stored as hot water in the hot water storage tank 2 when the fuel cell 1 is operated, the power plant and the heating boiler. A predicted energy reduction amount that is a difference between a predicted energy consumption amount when the fuel cell 1 is operated and a predicted energy reduction amount that is a ratio of the predicted energy reduction amount to the predicted hot water storage amount And setting an energy reduction ratio threshold based on the calculated predicted energy reduction ratio, and based on the power load data and thermal load data on the operation day, and the past power load data and thermal load data. Starring the current energy reduction ratio is Te energy reduction ratio of the current for an increase output amount from the minimum output of the fuel cell 1 It is arranged to.
If the current energy reduction ratio is smaller than the energy reduction ratio threshold, the fuel cell 1 is operated at the minimum output, and the current energy reduction ratio is equal to or higher than the energy reduction ratio threshold. If there is, the fuel cell 1 is set to a condition for operating under the operating condition of the current energy reduction ratio.

  When the operation control unit 70 is described further, the operation control unit 70 includes an operation control means 72, an energy reduction ratio threshold value calculation setting means 74, an existing energy reduction ratio calculation means, as shown in FIGS. 76, timer means 78, a first memory 80 and a second memory 82 are provided. The operation control means 72 controls the inverter 6 and switches and controls the operation switch 14, and controls the operation of the fuel cell 1, the cooling water circulation pump 15 and the like as will be described later. The operation control means 72 includes an operation switching signal generation means 84 and an energy reduction ratio comparison means 86 that compares the energy reduction ratio threshold value with the current energy reduction ratio. The operation switching signal generator 84 generates a signal switching signal for switching the operation when the current energy reduction ratio becomes equal to or greater than the energy reduction ratio threshold, as will be described later. Based on the operation switching signal, the operation switching signal generator 84 generates the signal of the fuel cell 1. Switch operation.

  Further, the energy reduction ratio threshold value calculation setting means 74 sets an energy reduction ratio threshold value that becomes a reference when the operating state of the fuel cell 1 is switched. In this embodiment, the energy reduction ratio threshold value calculation setting means 74 includes a predicted power load calculation means 90 and a predicted heat load calculation means 92, and the predicted heat load calculation means 92 includes the predicted heating heat load calculation means 94 and Predicted hot water supply heat load calculating means 96 is included. The predicted power load calculation means 90 calculates future predicted power load data using the power consumption due to past use of the power load device 9. The heat of the fuel cell 1 is related to being used for heating and hot water supply, and a heating heat load and a hot water supply heat load are predicted as heat loads, and the predicted heating heat load calculation means 94 is connected to the heating terminal 3 (for example, a floor heating device, The predicted heating heat load data in the future is calculated using the past heating heat load data from the use of the bathroom heating dryer), and the predicted hot water supply heat load calculation means 96 is the hot water supply heat load data by the hot water supply in the past hot water use. Is used to calculate future hot water supply heat load data.

  As shown in FIG. 17, the predicted power load calculation means 90, the predicted heating heat load calculation means 94, and the predicted hot water supply heat load calculation means 96 have a predetermined operation schedule time (for example, from the current time (for example, 0 o'clock) to the future) 12 hours) predicted power load data, predicted heating heat load data, and predicted hot water supply heat load data, and the load data is predicted for each unit operation time (corresponding to the unit time) of the operation schedule time. Done. In this embodiment, the operation schedule time is set to 12 hours, the unit operation time is set to 1 hour, the power load, the heating heat load and the hot water supply heat load from the present time to 12 hours ahead are predicted, and the prediction of these loads is performed. Although it is performed every hour, the operation scale time may be set to 8 hours, for example, and the unit operation time may be set to 0.5 hours, 0.25 hours, or the like. In this embodiment, as will be understood from the following description, the heating terminal 3 is not operated, that is, a state where the predicted heating heat load is not generated is described. However, the heating terminal 3 is similarly operated. Can be applied.

  The energy reduction ratio threshold value calculation setting means 74 also includes a predicted effective hot water storage heat amount calculation means 104 and a predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means 106. The predicted effective hot water storage calorific value calculation means 104 calculates the predicted hot water storage heat load generated when the fuel cell 1 is operated, and calculates the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount considering the heat radiation loss due to the heat radiation with the passage of time. By using the predicted effective hot water storage amount as described above, it is possible to accurately calculate the predicted energy reduction ratio, which will be described later, but in order to simplify this calculation, the predicted hot water storage amount (without considering the heat dissipation loss) should be used. May be.

Further, the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means 106 calculates the predicted energy reduction ratio using the following equation (2). That is, the predicted energy reduction ratio P is
P = [(Predicted energy consumption E1 when the power plant and the heating boiler are operated) − (
Predicted energy consumption when operating a combined heat and power system E2)] / Specific prediction enabled
Hot water storage amount (2)
Here, the predicted energy consumptions E1 and E2 are considered for a specific unit operation time, respectively.
E1 = (specific prediction power load / power generation efficiency of power plant) + (specific prediction effective amount of stored hot water / heating)
Boiler hot water supply efficiency) + (specific prediction heating heat load / heating boiler heating efficiency)
... (3)
E2 = (specific predicted energy consumption of cogeneration equipment) + (specific predicted power purchase / power plant
Power generation efficiency) + [(specific prediction heating heat load)-(heat out of the exhaust heat of the combined heat and power unit
Amount of heat used in the bunch)] / Heating efficiency of the auxiliary heating boiler (4). Considering the case where the fuel cell 1 is operated and the case where the fuel cell 1 is not operated, the case where the fuel cell 1 is not operated operated the power plant and the heating boiler. The heating boiler at this time becomes the auxiliary heating boiler J.

In this embodiment, the fuel cell 1 is configured such that its power generation output varies stepwise depending on the size of the load, and is configured to be always operated. The predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means 106 calculates the predicted energy reduction ratio of the specific output with respect to the minimum output of the fuel cell 1 using the following equation (5). That is, the predicted energy reduction ratio Pp in this case is
Pp = [(Cogeneration unit for operating power plant and heating boiler at specified output)
(Estimated energy savings when operating)-(Power plant and heating at minimum output)
Predicted energy when operating a combined heat and power system when operating a boiler
Energy reduction)] / [(Predicted effective hot water storage at specific output)-(Minimum output
Predicted effective hot water storage))] (5)
It becomes.

The maximum output of the fuel cell 1 is, for example, 1000 W. As an example, the maximum output is 1000 W, the maximum output is, for example, 75% output, 750 W, the maximum output is, for example, 50 W output, and the maximum output is, for example, 500 W, and the maximum output is, for example, 25% output. In such a case, when the power generation output is increased from 250 W to 500 W, the power generation output is increased from 250 W to 750 W, and the power generation output is also configured. When the predicted energy reduction ratio when the power increases from 250 W to 1000 W and the specific output is, for example, 500 W, the predicted energy reduction ratio Pp at this time is
Pp = [(Cogeneration of heat and power when operating a power plant and a heating boiler at 500 W output)
Predicted energy reduction when operating the device)-(Power generation at 250 W output)
When operating the combined heat and power system compared to when operating the heating plant and heating boiler
Predicted energy reduction amount)] / [(Predicted effective hot water storage amount at 500 W output)-(
Predicted effective hot water storage at 250W output)] ... (6)
It becomes.

  The energy reduction ratio threshold value calculation setting means 74 further has a tank hot water storage heat amount calculation means 108 for calculating the amount of hot water stored in the hot water storage tank 2 as hot water, and a prediction effective required to cover the predicted hot water supply heat load. Predictive effective required hot water storage calorific value calculation means 110 for calculating the required hot water storage heat quantity, predictive hot water supply heat load pickup means 112 for picking up the predicted hot water supply heat load generated through the operation schedule time, and a predicted energy reduction ratio Predictive energy reduction ratio selecting means 114, predictive effective hot water heat quantity integration calculating means 116 for integrating the predicted effective hot water storage quantity, and integrated predicted hot water storage quantity for comparing the calculated predicted effective hot water heat quantity with the predicted effective required hot water quantity. Temporary operation schedule for setting determination unit 118 and provisional operation schedule of fuel cell 1 And a setting unit 120.

  The tank hot water storage heat amount calculation means 108 calculates the tank hot water storage heat amount based on the temperature and amount of hot water in the hot water storage tank 2. Further, the predicted hot water supply heat load pickup means 112 sequentially picks up the predicted hot water supply heat load generated through the operation schedule time in the order of time passage, and the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount calculation means 110 predicts the required effective heat supply to cover the predicted hot water supply heat load. Calculate the required amount of stored hot water. For example, when the first predicted hot water supply heat load (predicted hot water supply heat load between 3 and 4 o'clock) of the predicted hot water supply heat load shown in FIG. The amount of heat stored in the tank hot water at the reference time (0 o'clock) is subtracted from the predicted hot water supply heat load. At this time, the amount of heat stored in the tank hot water decreases due to heat dissipation loss until the time when the predicted hot water supply heat load occurs. Therefore, it is desirable to use the effective amount of heat stored in the tank considering the heat dissipation loss as the amount of heat stored in the tank hot water. .

  The predicted energy reduction ratio selection means 114 selects the calculated predicted energy reduction ratio in descending order of the calculated value of the calculated predicted energy reduction ratio, and the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount integration calculation means 116 predicts the effective effective hot water storage amount according to the operating condition of the selected predicted energy reduction ratio. When the integrated value is smaller than the predicted effective required hot water amount, the integrated predicted hot water amount determining means 118 compares the integrated value by the predicted effective hot water amount calculating means 116 with the predicted effective required hot water amount. Repeats the selection of the predicted energy reduction ratio by the predicted energy reduction ratio selection means 114, and when this integrated value becomes equal to or exceeds the predicted effective required hot water storage amount, the selection by the predicted energy reduction ratio selection means 114 is terminated. In this embodiment, the predicted energy reduction ratio of a specific output (for example, 1000 W, 750 W, 500 W) with respect to the minimum output of the fuel cell 1 is used as the predicted energy reduction ratio in relation to the fuel cell 1 being always operated. Therefore, the predicted effective hot water storage amount at the time of the minimum output of the fuel cell 1 is added to the integrated value by the predicted effective hot water storage amount integration calculating means 116, and the integrated predicted hot water storage heat amount determining means 118 adds this calculated operation value and the predicted effective required hot water storage heat amount. And are compared. And the temporary operation schedule setting means 120 is based on the operation state of the prediction energy reduction ratio selected about the thing including all the prediction hot water supply thermal loads of operation schedule time, about the unit operation time with which the prediction energy reduction ratio was selected. The operation state that becomes the predicted energy reduction ratio is set as a temporary operation schedule, and the unit output time for which the predicted energy reduction ratio is not selected is set as the temporary operation schedule.

  In this embodiment, the energy reduction ratio threshold value calculation setting means 74 further sets the energy reduction ratio threshold value based on the temporary operation schedule, and further sets a temporary operation predicted effective hot water storage amount integration calculation means. 122, provisional operation predicted hot water storage heat amount determination means 124 and threshold value setting means 126 are included. Temporary operation prediction effective hot water storage amount integration calculating means 122 sequentially integrates the temporary operation prediction effective hot water storage heat amount generated when operating according to the temporary operation schedule in the order of time passage, and temporary operation prediction hot water storage heat amount determination means 124 The integrated value obtained by the operation predicted effective hot water storage amount integration calculating means 122 is compared with the predicted effective required hot water storage amount of the first predicted hot water supply heat load. When this integrated value is smaller than the predicted effective required hot water storage amount, provisional operation is performed. Accumulation of the predicted effective hot water storage amount is repeatedly performed, and when this integrated value is equal to or exceeds the predicted hot water supply heat load, this integration is terminated. Then, the threshold value setting means 126 sets the smallest value among the predicted energy reduction ratios in the range integrated by the temporary operation prediction effective hot water storage amount integration calculation means 122, for example, the energy reduction ratio threshold value for the unit operation time at 0:00. This energy reduction ratio threshold value is used for controlling the operation of the fuel cell 1 at, for example, 0 to 1 o'clock.

  Further, the current energy reduction ratio calculation means 76 of the operation control unit 70 is similar to the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation setting means 106 for the current energy reduction ratio, that is, the increased output from the minimum output of the fuel cell 1 in this embodiment. Calculate the current energy reduction ratio. In this embodiment, the power generation output of the fuel cell 1 is configured to be variable in four stages of 1000 W, 750 W, 500 W, and 250 W. In this connection, the increase output from the minimum output is increased from 250 W to 500 W. When it fluctuates, when it fluctuates from 250 W to 500 W, or when it fluctuates from 250 W to 1000 W, the current energy reduction ratio is calculated.

This current energy reduction ratio is calculated using current power load data and current heating thermal load data as current load data, and predicted hot water supply thermal load data obtained by calculating past load data as past load data. Based on the load data, the current heating heat load data, and the predicted hot water supply heat load data, the above formulas (2) to (6) are applied. The application of the above formula when calculating the current energy reduction ratio is as follows. For the application of equations (2) to (4), the current energy reduction ratio PA is
PA = [(Current energy consumption EA1 when the power plant and the heating boiler are operated) −
(Current energy consumption EA2 when the combined heat and power unit is operated)] / Specific present
Effective amount of stored hot water (2A)
The current energy consumption EA1, EA2 is
EA1 = (specific current power load / power generation efficiency of the power plant) + (specific current hot water calorific value / heating boiler)
Hot water supply efficiency) + (specific current heating heat load / heating boiler heating efficiency)
... (3A)
EA2 = (specific current energy consumption of the combined heat and power system) + (specific power purchase / power plant output)
(Electric efficiency) + [(specific heating heating load)-(out of the exhaust heat of the combined heat and power unit for heating
The amount of heat used)] / heating efficiency of the auxiliary heating boiler (4A), the current energy reduction ratio PpA of the specific output with respect to the minimum output is
PpA = [(Combined heat and power supply when operating a power plant and a heating boiler at a specific output
(Current energy savings when operating the plant)-(minimum power plant and additional energy
Current energy when operating a combined heat and power system compared to when operating a heat boiler
Energy saving amount)] / [(Current effective hot water storage amount at specific output)-(At minimum output)
Current effective hot water storage amount)] ... (5A)
For example, if the specific output is 500 W, the current energy reduction ratio PpA is
PpA = [(combination of heat and power when operating a power plant and a heating boiler at 500 W output)
Current energy savings when operating the feeder)-(250W output)
When operating a combined heat and power system for operating a power plant and a heating boiler
Current energy reduction amount of mushrooms]] / [(current effective hot water storage amount at 500 W output)-
(Current effective amount of stored hot water at 250 W output)] (6A)
Thus, considering the case where the fuel cell 1 is operated and the case where the fuel cell 1 is not operated, the case where the fuel cell 1 is not operated is when the power plant and the heating boiler are operated, and the heating boiler at this time is the auxiliary heating boiler J.

  In calculating the current energy reduction ratio, the current power load data and heating heat load data change every moment. For example, the power load data and heating heat load data from 5 to 20 minutes before the current time are averaged. It is preferable to use those as current power load data and current heating heat load data.

  In this embodiment, the first memory 80 of the operation control unit 70 includes predicted power load data, predicted heat load data (predicted heating heat load data, predicted hot water supply heat load data), tank hot water storage heat amount, predicted energy reduction amount, prediction. Effective hot water storage amount, predicted energy reduction ratio, predicted effective required hot water storage amount, predicted effective hot water storage heat amount integrated value, temporary operation predicted effective hot water storage heat amount integrated value, energy reduction ratio threshold, current power load data, current heating heat load data, etc. Remembered. Further, the second memory 82 calculates an operation schedule time (12 hours), a unit operation time (1 hour), a time for averaging current power load data and heating heat load data, and an energy reduction ratio. Various application formulas are stored. The timer means 78 keeps time, and the time measured is used for controlling the cogeneration system.

  Next, a series of control operations by the operation control unit 70 when controlling the operation of the fuel cell 1 will be described based on the flowchart shown in FIG.

  First, it is determined whether or not energy consumption has regularity as described above (step C1). When it is determined that there is no regularity in energy consumption for each set period, the flag i is set to 0 (step 1). C2) The power load following operation process is executed as the preliminary operation process (step C3), and the process proceeds to step S8. When it is determined in step C1 that the energy consumption for each set period is regular, the flag i Is set to 1 (step C4), and the load cover condition operation process is executed.

Hereinafter, the detailed control operation of the load cover condition operation process will be described with reference to FIGS.
First, the energy reduction ratio threshold value setting means 74 sets the energy reduction ratio threshold value (step S1) (see FIG. 21). The energy reduction ratio threshold value is set according to the flowchart shown in FIG. That is, the predicted power load calculation means 90 is based on the past load data of the power load device 9, and the predicted power for each unit operation time (for example, 1 hour) of the operation schedule time (for example, 12 hours after the current time). The load data is calculated (step S1-1), and the predicted heating heat load calculation means 94 calculates the operation schedule time based on the heating heat load data of the past heating terminal 3 (floor heating device, bathroom heating dryer, etc.). Calculate the predicted heating heat load data for each unit operation time (step S1-2) (in this embodiment, the heating terminal 3 is not operated, and the predicted heating heat load is zero), and The predicted hot water supply thermal load calculation means 96 calculates predicted hot water supply thermal load data for each unit operation time of the operation schedule time based on the past hot water supply data (step S1-3). The predicted power load data by the predicted power load calculation means 90, the predicted heating heat load data by the predicted heating heat load calculation means 94, and the predicted hot water supply heat load data by the predicted hot water supply heat load calculation means 96, for example, are as shown in FIG. . Note that the calculation of the predicted heating heat load data by the predicted heating heat load calculation means 94 predicts the operating states of the various heating terminals 3, and calculates the predicted heating heat load data using the operating states of the heating terminals 3. May be.

  When the predicted power load data, predicted heating heat load data, and predicted hot water supply heat load data in each unit operation time of the operation schedule time are calculated in this manner, a predetermined predicted hot water supply heat load is picked up (step S1-4). . The predicted hot water supply heat load pick-up means 112 picks up the predicted hot water supply heat load generated through the operation schedule time in the order of passage of time. First, the first (3-4 o'clock) hot water supply heat load is picked up, and this predicted prediction A temporary operation schedule is set for the hot water supply heat load (step S1-5).

  The provisional operation schedule for the first predicted hot water supply heat load is set as shown in FIG. When setting the temporary operation schedule, first, the amount of stored hot water in the hot water stored in the hot water storage tank 2 as hot water is calculated (step S1-5-1). The tank hot water calorific value calculation means 108 calculates the amount of hot water stored in the tank hot water based on the amount and temperature of hot water in the hot water storage tank 2 (for example, in order to measure the amount and temperature of hot water, the hot water storage tank 2 is spaced in the depth direction). A plurality of temperature sensors are provided, and the tank hot water storage heat amount is as shown in the tank hot water storage amount column of FIG. 18, and is calculated to be, for example, 1000 kcal.

  Next, in the time zone from the start of the operation schedule time to before the first predicted hot water supply thermal load is generated, the calculation of the predicted effective hot water storage amount is performed for each unit operation time (each time from 0 to 3 o'clock). (Step S1-5-2). In this embodiment, the fuel cell 1 is configured to be operable with four-stage power generation outputs of 250 W, 500 W, 750 W, and 1000 W. Therefore, the predicted effective hot water storage calorific value calculation means 104 is configured to generate power generation outputs for each unit operation time. The predicted amount of stored hot water is calculated, and the predicted amount of stored hot water is calculated in consideration of the heat dissipation loss during the period from the unit operation time to the time before the predicted hot water supply heat load is generated. The predicted amount of stored hot water can be calculated based on the predicted power load, predicted hot water supply heat load and predicted heating heat load for each unit operation time, and the power generation output of the fuel cell 1 during that unit operation time. In addition, heat loss occurs in the hot water stored in the hot water storage tank 2 as time elapses, and this heat dissipation loss increases as the time until the predicted hot water supply heat load increases. The energy reduction ratio threshold value to be set can be set more accurately. The predicted effective hot water storage calorie thus calculated is, for example, as shown in the column of predicted effective hot water storage calorie in FIG.

  Next, the predicted energy reduction amount is calculated for each unit operation time (each time from 0 to 3 o'clock) in the time period from the start of the operation schedule time to before the first predicted hot water supply thermal load is generated. In step S1-5-3, a predicted energy reduction ratio is calculated based on the calculated predicted energy reduction amount (step S1-5-4). In this embodiment, as described above, the fuel cell 1 is configured to be able to be operated with the four-stage power generation output of 250 W, 500 W, 750 W, and 1000 W. Therefore, the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means 106 is operated in each unit operation. The predicted energy reduction amount for each power generation output in time is calculated, and the calculated predicted energy reduction amount is, for example, as shown in the column of energy reduction amount in FIG. Note that the energy reduction amount Q is, as understood from the above description, Q = (predicted energy consumption E1 when operating the power plant and auxiliary heating boiler) − (predicted when operating the combined heat and power supply device) It becomes energy consumption amount E2) and is calculated for each power generation output. After calculating the energy reduction amount in this way, the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means 106 further uses the above formula (5) to specify a specific output (for example, 500 W, 750 W) with respect to the minimum output (for example, 250 W) of the fuel cell 1. , 1000 W), and the calculated predicted energy reduction ratio is, for example, as shown in the column of predicted energy reduction ratio in FIG.

  After calculating the predicted energy reduction ratio in this way, the predicted energy reduction ratio is picked up in order to set the energy saving operation schedule (step S1-5-5). That is, the predicted energy reduction ratio selection means 114 selects the calculation value having the largest predicted energy reduction ratio as the first, “1.40” in this embodiment, and stores it according to the operating condition of the selected predicted energy reduction ratio. The predicted effective hot water storage heat amount is integrated (step S1-5-6). In this embodiment, when integrating the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount, the predicted effective required hot water storage heat amount calculation means 110 calculates the predicted effective required hot water storage amount necessary to cover the first predicted hot water supply heat load. The predicted effective required hot water storage calorific value calculation means 110 sets the tank hot water storage heat amount (for example, 1000 cal) at the start of the operation schedule time as the first initial value for the first predicted hot water supply heat load, and based on this first initial value, An effective first initial value (for example, 964 kcal) taking into consideration a heat dissipation loss (for example, 36 kcal) before the occurrence of the first predicted hot water supply thermal load is calculated, and an effective first value is calculated from the first predicted hot water supply thermal load. Subtract 1 initial value to calculate the predicted effective required hot water storage amount. Then, a comparison is made between the integrated value by the predicted effective hot water storage amount integration calculating means 116 and the predicted effective required hot water storage amount (step S1-5-7), and the fuel cell 1 is always operated during this comparison. In relation to this, since the predicted effective hot water storage amount at least with the minimum output is generated, the integrated predicted hot water storage amount integrating means 116 has the minimum output (250 W) in the time period before the first predicted hot water supply heat load is generated. ), For example, 105 kcal as the predicted effective hot water heat amount at 0 to 1 o'clock, for example 107 kcal as the predicted effective hot water heat amount at 1 to 2 o'clock, and for example 108 kcal as the predicted effective hot water heat amount at 2 to 3 o'clock The predicted effective hot water heat quantity that increases in accordance with the predicted energy reduction ratio selected as the integrated value (that is, the predicted effective storage capacity when the output is 500 W) The amount of heat obtained by subtracting the predicted effective hot water storage amount at a minimum output of 250 W from the heat amount, for example, 241 kcal, is integrated, and a comparison determination between this integrated value and the predicted effective required hot water storage amount (specifically, this integrated value is effective first initial A comparison determination between the value obtained by adding the values and the first predicted hot water supply heat amount load) is performed.

  The integrated predicted hot water storage amount determining means 118 can cover the first predicted hot water supply heat load, in other words, the integrated value of the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount calculating means 116 is equal to or equal to the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount. If this integrated value is smaller than the predicted effective required hot water storage amount, the process returns to step S1-5-5, and steps S1-5-5 to S1-5-7 are repeated. When this integrated value is equal to or larger than the predicted effective required hot water storage amount, the process proceeds to step S1-5-8.

  In this embodiment, the predicted energy reduction ratio “1.40” (the power generation output 500 W in the unit operation time of 2 to 3 o'clock) is first selected, and this selection increases the predicted effective hot water heat amount that increases from the predicted effective hot water heat amount at the minimum output. That is, 241 kcal obtained by subtracting the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount at 250 W from the predicted effective hot water heat amount at 500 W is integrated, and the integrated value 1525 kcal (effective first initial value + effective hot water at the minimum output at 0-3 hours) The amount of heat + the amount of increase in the effective hot water storage amount) and the first predicted hot water supply heat load (2000 kcal) are compared. In this comparison determination, the integrated value of the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount calculating means 116 is smaller than the first predicted hot water supply heat load, and therefore, the process returns from step S1-5-7 to step S1-5-5. The second largest predicted energy reduction ratio is selected.

  The predicted energy reduction ratio selection means 114 selects the second largest calculated value of the predicted energy reduction ratio as the second, “1.39” in this embodiment, and the operating condition ( Accumulation of the predicted effective hot water storage amount (the amount of heat obtained by subtracting the predicted effective hot water storage amount at 250 W from the predicted effective hot water storage amount at 500 W) stored by the power generation output 500 W in the unit operation time of 1 to 2 o'clock (step S1) -5-6), this integrated value (1525 + 238) kcal and the first predicted hot water supply heat load (2000 kcal) are compared. Also in this comparison determination, the integrated value of the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount calculating means 116 is smaller than the first predicted hot water supply heat load, and therefore the process returns from step S1-5-7 to step S1-5-5 again, and then The third largest predicted energy reduction ratio is selected.

  The predicted energy reduction ratio selection means 114 selects the third largest calculated value of the predicted energy reduction ratio as the third, “1.31” in this embodiment, and the operating conditions ( Predicted effective hot water storage amount stored at a power generation output of 750 W in a unit operation time of 2 to 3 o'clock (500 W is selected for a unit operation time of 2 to 3 o'clock, so at this time, from the predicted effective hot water storage amount of 750 W The amount of heat obtained by subtracting the predicted effective hot water storage amount at 500 W is further added (step S1-5-6), and this integrated value (1525 + 238 + 314) kcal is compared with the first predicted hot water supply heat load (2000 kcal). The In this comparison determination, the integrated value of the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount calculating means 116 becomes larger than the first predicted hot water supply heat load, and therefore, the process proceeds from step S1-5-7 to step S1-5-8. A temporary operation schedule for the predicted hot water supply heat load is set.

  The temporary operation schedule setting unit 120 outputs the output state for the unit operation time for which the predicted energy reduction ratio is selected, and the minimum output for the unit operation time for which the predicted energy reduction ratio is not selected. In this embodiment, the unit operation time of 0-1 o'clock is 250 W, the unit operation time of 1-2 o'clock is 500 W, and the unit operation time is 2-3 o'clock. Is set as a provisional driving schedule.

  Returning to FIG. 22, when the temporary operation schedule is set for the first predicted hot water supply thermal load in this way, the process proceeds to step S <b> 1-6, and whether there is another predicted hot water supply thermal load at the predetermined operation schedule time. If it is determined that there is another predicted hot water supply heat load, the process returns to step S1-4. If there is no other predicted hot water supply heat load, the process proceeds to step S1-7.

  In this embodiment, in addition to the first predicted hot water supply thermal load (in the time zone from 3 to 4 o'clock), there is an estimated hot water supply thermal load in the time zone from 8 to 9 o'clock. Returning to S-4, the next predicted hot water supply heat load in the operation schedule time is picked up. That is, the predicted hot water supply thermal load pickup means 112 picks up the second predicted hot water supply heat load (in the time zone from 8 to 9 o'clock) in the order of the operation schedule time, and the first and second predicted hot water supply heat loads. A temporary operation schedule is set for the predicted hot water supply heat load including (step S1-5).

  Setting of the temporary operation schedule for the first and second predicted hot water supply heat loads is performed as shown in FIG. In FIG. 24, first, an initial tank hot water storage amount with respect to the second predicted hot water storage load is calculated (step S1-5-11). In this case, the first predicted hot water supply heat load is 2000 kcal, for example. Since the amount of heat of 2077 kcal is stored in the hot water storage tank 2 as the predicted effective hot water storage amount with respect to the second predicted hot water supply heat load, the initial tank hot water storage amount in this case, that is, the second initial value is the integration of the predicted effective hot water storage amount. The value is obtained by subtracting the first predicted hot water supply heat load from the value. In this embodiment, the value is, for example, 77 kcal.

  Next, in the time period from the start of the operation schedule time to before the second predicted hot water supply heat load is generated, the predicted effective hot water storage amount is calculated for each unit operation time (each time from 0 to 8 o'clock). (Step S1-5-12). Since the fuel cell 1 is configured to be operable with four-stage power generation outputs of 250 W, 500 W, 750 W, and 1000 W, in this case as well, the predicted effective hot water storage calorific value calculation means 104 operates in the unit operation as described above. Calculates the predicted hot water storage amount for each power generation output over time, and calculates the predicted effective hot water storage amount taking into account the heat dissipation loss of the time from the unit operating time to the time before the predicted hot water supply heat load is generated. The predicted effective hot water storage calorie calculated in this way is, for example, as shown in the column of predicted effective hot water storage calorie in FIG.

  Next, the predicted energy reduction amount is calculated for each unit operation time (each time from 0 to 8 o'clock) in the time period from the start of the operation schedule time to before the second predicted hot water supply thermal load is generated. In step S1-5-13, a predicted energy reduction ratio is calculated based on the calculated predicted energy reduction amount (steps S1-5-14 and step S1-5-15). In this embodiment, as described above, since the fuel cell 1 is configured to be operable with the four-stage power generation output of 250 W, 500 W, 750 W, and 1000 W, the predicted energy reduction ratio calculating means 106 is configured to operate each unit operating time. In FIG. 19, the predicted energy reduction amount for each power generation output is calculated, and the calculated predicted energy reduction amount is, for example, as shown in the column of energy reduction amount in FIG. Then, after calculating the energy reduction amount in this way, the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means 106 further calculates the predicted energy reduction ratio using the above equation (5). At this time, a large output is not set as the power generation output of the fuel cell 1 (in other words, the minimum output of 250 W is set or the power generation output is not set). For each unit operation time at -8 o'clock), the predicted energy reduction ratio when the fuel cell 1 increases from the minimum output (for example, 250 W) to a specific output (for example, 500 W, 750 W, 1000 W) is calculated (step S1). -5-14) For the unit operation time (each unit operation time of 1 to 3 o'clock) in which an output larger than the minimum output (for example, 500 W or 750 W) is set as the power generation output, the setting of the fuel cell 1 The predicted energy reduction ratio when the output is increased to the specific output is calculated (step S1-5-15), and the calculated predicted energy reduction ratio is calculated. , For example, it is as shown in the column of the predicted energy reduction ratio of 19. If the maximum output of 1000 W is set as the set power generation output, operation exceeding this output cannot be performed, so the set operating condition is maintained, and the predicted energy reduction ratio is not calculated.

  When the predicted energy reduction ratio is thus calculated, the pickup is performed (step S1-5-16). That is, also in this case, the predicted energy reduction ratio selection means 114 selects the first calculated value with the largest predicted energy reduction ratio, in this embodiment “1.41” (500 W operation at 7-8 o'clock). Then, the predicted effective hot water storage amount stored according to the selected operating condition of the predicted energy reduction ratio is integrated (step S1-5-17). In this embodiment, when integrating the predicted effective hot water storage amount, the predicted effective necessary hot water storage amount calculation means 110 calculates the predicted effective required hot water storage amount necessary to cover the second predicted hot water supply heat load. That is, the predicted effective required hot water storage calorific value calculating means 110 corresponds to the first predicted hot water supply heat load, and the tank hot water stored heat amount remaining when the hot water in the hot water storage tank 2 is used (that is, the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount calculating means 116). Is a calculated value obtained by subtracting the first predicted hot water supply thermal load from the integrated value, and in this embodiment, 77 kcal) is set as the second initial value for the second predicted hot water supply thermal load, Based on the effective second initial value (for example, 43 kcal) in consideration of the heat radiation loss (for example, 34 kcal) before the second predicted hot water supply thermal load is generated based on the second predicted hot water supply heat load for the second The predicted effective required hot water storage amount is calculated by subtracting the effective second initial value from (for example, 3000 kcal). Then, a comparison is made between the integrated value by the predicted effective hot water storage amount integration calculating means 116 and the predicted effective required hot water storage amount (step S1-5-18), and at the time of this comparison, the first predicted hot water supply thermal load (ie, , The temporary operation schedule described above is set for the time zone from 0 to 3 o'clock, and the fuel cell 1 is operated at least at the minimum output for the remaining time zone, so that the accumulated predicted hot water storage amount The integrating means 116 predicts the effective effective hot water storage amount of the minimum output (250 W) in each unit operation time in the time zone (time zone from 3 to 8 o'clock) before the occurrence of the second predicted hot water supply heat load, that is, 3 Predicted effective hot water heat quantity at -4 o'clock, for example, 103 kcal, predictive effective hot water heat quantity at 4-5 o'clock, for example, 104 kcal, predictive effective hot water heat quantity at 5-6 o'clock, 105 kcal, predicted at 6-7 o'clock For example, 107 kcal as the effective hot water storage amount, and 108 kcal as the predicted effective hot water storage amount at 7-8 o'clock, for example, are accumulated in advance, and the predicted effective hot water heat amount that increases according to the predicted energy reduction ratio selected for this integrated value (ie, output) The amount of heat obtained by subtracting the predicted effective hot water storage amount at a minimum output of 250 W from the predicted effective hot water heat amount at 500 W, for example, 241 kcal, is integrated, and a comparison determination between this integrated value and the predicted effective required hot water storage amount (specifically, this integration) (A comparison between the value obtained by adding the effective second initial value to the value and the second predicted hot water supply thermal load).

  The integrated predicted hot water storage amount determination unit 118 can cover the second predicted hot water supply heat load, in other words, the integrated value of the predicted effective hot water storage amount integration calculation unit 116 is equal to or equal to the predicted effective hot water storage amount of heat. If the integrated value is smaller than the predicted effective required hot water storage amount, the process returns to step S1-5-5, and the selection of the predicted energy reduction ratio is repeatedly performed as described above. Advances to step S1-5-8 when becomes greater than or equal to the predicted effective required hot water storage amount.

  In this embodiment, the predicted energy reduction ratio “1.41” (the power generation output 500 W in the unit operation time of 7 to 8 o'clock) is first selected, and this selection increases the predicted effective hot water heat amount that increases from the predicted effective hot water heat amount at the minimum output. (In other words, 241 kcal obtained by subtracting the predicted effective hot water storage amount at 250 W from the predicted effective hot water storage amount at 500 W) is integrated, and the integrated value 811 kcal (effective second initial value + effective at the minimum output at 3 to 8 hours) The amount of stored hot water + the amount of increase in the effective amount of stored hot water) is compared with the second predicted hot water supply heat load (3000 kcal). In this comparison determination, the integrated value of the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount calculating means 116 is smaller than the second predicted hot water supply heat load, and therefore, the process returns from step S1-5-18 to step S1-5-16. The second largest predicted energy reduction ratio is selected.

  The predicted energy reduction ratio selection means 114 is the second largest calculated value with the predicted energy reduction ratio being the second, in this embodiment “1.40” (500 W operation in a unit operation time of 5-6 o'clock). Then, the accumulated predicted effective hot water quantity stored according to the selected predicted energy reduction ratio operating condition (heat quantity obtained by subtracting the predicted effective hot water quantity at 250 W from the predicted effective hot water quantity at 500 W) is further accumulated (step S1-5-17), this integrated value (811 + 235) kcal and the second predicted hot water supply heat load (3000 kcal) are compared. Also in this comparison determination, the integrated value of the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount integration calculating means 116 is smaller than the second predicted hot water supply heat load, and therefore the process returns from step S1-5-18 to step S1-5-16 again, and then The third largest predicted energy reduction ratio is selected. In this way, the predicted energy reduction ratio selecting unit 114 sets “1” as the third largest calculated value until the integrated value of the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount calculating unit 116 is equal to or larger than the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount. .39 ”(500 W operation at a unit operation time of 3 to 4 o'clock), and“ 1.38 ”(500 W operation at a unit operation time of 4 to 5 o'clock) as the fourth largest calculated value, “1.37” (500 W operation at a unit operation time of 6 to 7 o'clock) as a large calculation value, and “1.22” (750 W operation at a unit operation time of 1 to 2 o'clock) as a seventh operation value , “1.18” (1000 W operation in unit operation time of 1 to 2 o'clock) as the eighth largest calculated value, and “0.95” (unit of 7 to 8 o'clock) as the ninth largest calculated value luck 750W operation in time), and selects "0.86" the (750W operation in the unit operating time o'clock 3-4) as a large calculated value to the 10 th.

  As described above, when the predicted energy reduction ratios are selected in descending order and the integrated value of the predicted effective hot water storage amount integration calculating means 116 is equal to or larger than the predicted effective required hot water storage heat amount, the process proceeds to step S1-5-19 to perform temporary operation. The schedule setting means 120 outputs the output state for the unit operation time for which the predicted energy reduction ratio is selected, and the minimum output for the unit operation time for which the predicted energy reduction ratio is not selected, or the operation state of the set provisional operation schedule. Is set as a provisional operation schedule for the first and second predicted hot water supply heat loads, and in this embodiment, as shown in FIG. 20, the unit operation time of 0-1 o'clock is 250 W of operation, 1-2 o'clock Unit operation time of 1000 W, and unit operation time of 2 to 3 o'clock is 750 W operation, About to 4 unit operation time of o'clock and so on 500W operation of, these operating state is set as a temporary driving schedule.

  Returning to FIG. 22 again, when the provisional operation schedule is set for the first and second predicted hot water supply thermal loads in this way, there is no other predicted hot water supply thermal load at the predetermined operation schedule time. Accordingly, the process proceeds from step S1-6 to step S1-7. In step S1-7, the provisional operation predicted effective hot water storage amount when provisional operation is performed according to the provisional operation schedule is performed, and the tank storage heat amount and the heat radiation loss at the start of the operation schedule time are considered. The initial value is used, and the predicted effective hot water storage amount in consideration of the heat radiation loss before the first predicted hot water supply thermal load is generated is used. Referring to FIG. 20, provisional operation predicted effective hot water storage heat amount integration calculating means 122 adds the predicted effective hot water storage amount (105 kcal) generated by the 250 W operation of the unit operation time of 0 to 1 to the first initial value (964 kcal). Then, the temporary operation predicted hot water storage heat amount determination means 124 determines whether this integrated value can cover the first predicted hot water supply heat load (2000 kcal). And when it cannot be covered, it returns to step S1-7, and temporary operation prediction effective hot water storage amount integration | calculation calculating means 122 is the prediction hot water supply heat | fever which generate | occur | produces by 1000W operation | movement of the next unit operation time (unit operation time of 1 to 2 o'clock). The load (976 kcal) is integrated, and at this time, the integrated value becomes 2045 kcal, and the first predicted hot water supply thermal load can be covered. If it can be covered in this way, the process proceeds to step S1-9, and the threshold value setting means 126 has a minimum predicted energy reduction ratio “1” in the range of the time zone in which the first predicted hot water supply heat load can be covered. .18 ”as the energy reduction ratio threshold value, and for example, for the first unit operation time (0 to 1 o'clock) of the operation schedule period, the fuel cell 1 is operated and controlled using this energy reduction ratio threshold value. The

  Returning to FIG. 21, when the energy reduction ratio threshold value is set in this way, the current energy reduction ratio is calculated (step S2). The calculation of the current energy reduction ratio is performed by the current energy reduction ratio calculation means 76, and applying the formula (5A) as described above, based on the current power load data, the current heating heat load data, and the predicted hot water supply heat load data, Calculation of the current energy reduction ratio (in this embodiment, the current energy reduction ratio when changing from 250 W to 500 W, from 250 W to 750 W, and from 250 W to 1000 W) for the increased output from the minimum output of the fuel cell 1 is performed. Is called. Then, it is determined whether or not these current energy reduction ratios are equal to or greater than the set energy reduction ratio threshold (step S3).

  The energy reduction ratio comparison means 86 of the operation control means 72 compares the current energy reduction ratio with the set energy reduction ratio threshold, and if any of the current energy reduction ratios is smaller than the energy reduction ratio threshold, From step S3 to step S4, it is assumed that the energy saving operation is not achieved even if the fuel cell 1 is operated at an output larger than the minimum output, the operation switching signal generation means 84 generates a minimum output operation switching signal, and the operation control means 72 The fuel cell 1 is operated at a minimum output of, for example, 250 W.

  On the other hand, when the current energy reduction ratio calculated by the current energy reduction ratio calculation means 76 is equal to or greater than the energy reduction ratio threshold value, the process proceeds from step S3 to step S5, and whether or not there are a plurality of output states equal to or greater than the threshold value. Is determined, and when there is one output state equal to or greater than the energy reduction ratio threshold value, the process proceeds from step S5 to step S6, and the fuel cell 1 is operated in the operation state of the current energy reduction ratio. For example, if the current energy reduction ratio when it is changed from 250 W to 500 W (or 750 W, 1000 W) is equal to or greater than the energy reduction ratio threshold value, the operation switching signal generation means 84 may output the intermediate first output operation switching signal (or intermediate output). 2 output operation switching signal, maximum output operation switching signal), and based on this operation switching signal, the operation control means 72 causes the fuel cell 1 to have an intermediate first output of 500 W (or an intermediate second output of 750 W, Operate at a maximum output of 1000 W).

  Further, when there are a plurality of output states equal to or higher than the energy reduction ratio threshold value, the process proceeds from step S5 to step S7, where the current energy reduction ratio is equal to or higher than the energy reduction ratio threshold value and the maximum The fuel cell 1 is operated in the output state. For example, when the current energy reduction ratio when changing from 250 W to 500 W or when changing from 250 W to 750 W is equal to or greater than the energy reduction ratio threshold value, the operation switching signal generating means 84 will change the operation switching operation of the maximum output state. A signal, that is, an intermediate second output operation switching signal is generated, and based on the operation switching signal, the operation control means 72 operates the fuel cell 1 at 750 W which is an intermediate second output. Thus, by selecting the maximum output state that is equal to or greater than the energy reduction ratio threshold, it is possible to increase the amount of hot water generated while achieving energy saving, and to reduce the shortage of hot water during hot water supply.

  Until it is time to reset the energy reduction ratio threshold value, the process proceeds from step S8 to step S9. When the flag i is 1, the process returns to step S2, and the current energy reduction ratio calculation means 76 calculates the current energy reduction ratio. An operation is performed (step S2), and the above-described steps S2 to S8 are repeatedly performed. When the flag i is 0, the process returns to step C1. Then, when it is time to reset the energy reduction ratio threshold value, the process returns from step S8 to step C1, and the above-described steps C1 to C4 and steps S1 to S8 are repeatedly performed.

Hereinafter, each of the third to tenth embodiments will be described. Since each embodiment shows another embodiment of the regularity determination processing of the operation state selection control in the second embodiment, the rules are mainly used. The description of the sex determination process is added, and the description of the same configuration as that of the second embodiment is omitted.

[ Third Embodiment]
In the third embodiment, the operation control unit 5 manages the hot water supply heat load as the heat load data in the data management process, and in the regularity determination process, the operation control unit 5 is unit time per unit time. Whether or not there is regularity in energy consumption for each set period, using the variation for each set period for a time zone in which the hot water supply thermal load is maximum (hereinafter referred to as the maximum hot water supply thermal load occurrence time) as a discrimination index Are configured to discriminate.

  In addition, in the data management process, the operation control unit 5 sets the hot water supply heat load per unit time (1 hour) for each set period (1 day) over a set period (for example, 4 weeks before the operation day). Manage in association with unit time.

  Then, in the regularity determination process, the operation control unit 5 obtains the maximum hot water supply thermal load occurrence time for each set period, and uses the variation in the maximum hot water supply thermal load generation time as a determination index to reduce the energy consumption for each set period. It is determined whether there is regularity.

Specifically, within the set period, the maximum hot water supply thermal load occurrence time of each set cycle is averaged to obtain an average value M of the maximum hot water supply thermal load occurrence time within the set period, and the maximum hot water supply thermal load occurrence time The standard deviation σ of is obtained.
Similarly to the second embodiment, the lower limit value of the regularity discrimination distribution range is set to (M−3σ), the upper limit value is set to (M + 3σ), and the lower limit value (M−) of the regularity discrimination distribution range is set. 3σ) is larger than the lower limit allowable value M × Ta and the upper limit value (M + 3σ) of the regularity determination distribution range is smaller than the upper limit allowable value M × Tb, the set cycle for the maximum hot water supply thermal load occurrence time It is determined that there is little variation in each and the energy consumption per set cycle is regular, and the load cover condition operation processing is executed, and the lower limit (M-3σ) of the regularity determination distribution range is allowable When the value M × Ta or less, or when the upper limit value (M + 3σ) of the regularity determination distribution range is equal to or greater than the upper limit allowable value M × Tb, the variation in the maximum hot water supply thermal load occurrence time for each set cycle is large. , Regularity in energy consumption per set cycle The Most to determine, performing power load following operation process as said preliminary operation processed.

FIG. 26 shows the average value and standard deviation of the maximum hot water supply heat load occurrence time within the set period for each of house a and house b.
The regularity discriminating distribution range having a lower limit value of (M-3σ) and an upper limit value of (M + 3σ) is smaller in the house b than in the house a, and the house b is about the maximum hot water supply heat load occurrence time. It can be seen that there is little variation for each set cycle, and there is regularity in energy consumption for each set cycle.

[ Fourth Embodiment]
In the fourth embodiment, the operation control unit 5 manages the heating heat load as the heat load data in the data management process, and in the regularity determination process, the set cycle for the total heating heat load in the set cycle It is configured to discriminate whether or not there is regularity in the energy consumption for each set period, using the variation for each as a discrimination index.

  In other words, in the data management process, the operation control unit 5 manages the heating heat load total amount for the set period (one day) for each set period over a set period (for example, 4 weeks before the operation day).

In the regularity determination process, the operation control unit 5 obtains the average value M of the heating heat load total amount for each set cycle within the set period, and obtains the standard deviation σ of the heating heat load total amount for each set cycle.
Similarly to the second embodiment, the lower limit value of the regularity discrimination distribution range is set to (M−3σ), the upper limit value is set to (M + 3σ), and the lower limit value (M−) of the regularity discrimination distribution range is set. 3σ) is larger than the lower limit allowable value M × Ta and the upper limit value (M + 3σ) of the regularity discrimination distribution range is smaller than the upper limit allowable value M × Tb, the setting for the heating heating load total amount in the set cycle It is determined that there is little variation in each cycle and there is regularity in energy consumption in each set cycle, the load-covering condition operation process is executed, and the lower limit value (M-3σ) of the regularity determination distribution range is the lower limit When the permissible value M × Ta or less, or when the upper limit value (M + 3σ) of the regularity determination distribution range is equal to or greater than the upper permissible value M × Tb, there is variation in the set cycle with respect to the total heating heat load of the set cycle. Large, rule on energy consumption per set cycle It determines that there is no, perform power load following operation process as said preliminary operation processed.

FIG. 27 shows the average value and standard deviation of the heating heat load per unit time within the set period, and the average value and standard deviation of the total amount of heating heat load per day within the set period for each of house a and house b. FIG.
The distribution range for regularity discrimination with the lower limit value (M-3σ) and the upper limit value (M + 3σ) is smaller in the house b than in the house a, and the house B is the heating heat load total amount of the set cycle. It can be seen that there is little variation in each set period, and there is regularity in energy consumption for each set period.

[ Fifth Embodiment]
In the fifth embodiment, in the regularity determination process, the operation control unit 5 determines whether or not the energy consumption for each set cycle has regularity using the variation for each set cycle for the total power load of the set cycle as an index. It is configured to determine whether or not.

  In other words, in the data management process, the operation control unit 5 manages the total power load for the set period (one day) for each set period over a set period (for example, 4 weeks before the operation day).

In the regularity determination process, the operation control unit 5 obtains the average value M of the total power load for each set period within the set period, and obtains the standard deviation σ of the total power load for the set period.
Similarly to the second embodiment, the lower limit value of the regularity discrimination distribution range is set to (M−3σ), the upper limit value is set to (M + 3σ), and the lower limit value (M−) of the regularity discrimination distribution range is set. 3σ) is larger than the lower limit allowable value M × Ta and the upper limit value (M + 3σ) of the regularity discrimination distribution range is smaller than the upper limit allowable value M × Tb, the setting cycle for the total power load amount of the setting cycle It is determined that there is little variation and energy consumption is regular, and the load-covering condition operation process is executed, and the lower limit (M−3σ) of the regularity determination distribution range is the lower limit allowable value M × Ta In the following cases, or when the upper limit value (M + 3σ) of the regularity discriminating distribution range is equal to or greater than the upper limit allowable value M × Tb, there is a large variation in the set power cycle for each set cycle, resulting in energy consumption. It is determined that there is no regularity, and the spare Performing power load following operation processing as a rolling process.

FIG. 28 shows the average value and standard deviation of the power load for each unit time within the set period and the average value and standard deviation of the total power load for one day within the set period for each of house a and house b. It is a figure.
The regularity discriminating distribution range where the lower limit value is (M-3σ) and the upper limit value is (M + 3σ) is narrower at b house than at a house, and b house is about the total power load of the set period. It can be seen that there is little variation for each set cycle, and there is regularity in energy consumption for each set cycle.

[ Sixth Embodiment]
In the sixth embodiment, in the regularity determination process, the total amount of power loads per unit time or less than the rated output power (for example, 750 W) of the fuel cell 1 in the set cycle (the total power load below the rated output) In other words, it is determined whether there is regularity in energy consumption for each set period.

In other words, in the data management process, the operation control unit 5 sets the power load per unit time (1 hour) for each set period (1 day) over a set period (for example, 4 weeks before the operation day). Manage in association with unit time.
Then, for each set cycle (1 day), the power load below the rated output power of the fuel cell 1 is extracted from the power loads per unit time (1 hour) in the set cycle, and the extracted power loads are totaled. And calculate the total power load below the rated output.

In the regularity determination process, the operation control unit 5 calculates the average value M of the total power load below the rated output in the set period within the set period, and calculates the standard deviation σ of the total power load below the rated output.
Similarly to the second embodiment, the lower limit value of the regularity discrimination distribution range is set to (M−3σ), the upper limit value is set to (M + 3σ), and the lower limit value (M−) of the regularity discrimination distribution range is set. 3σ) is larger than the lower limit allowable value M × Ta, and the upper limit value (M + 3σ) of the regularity discrimination distribution range is smaller than the upper limit allowable value M × Tb, the total power load below the rated output of the set cycle The variation for each set period is small, it is determined that the energy consumption for each set period is regular, the load-covering condition operation process is executed, and the lower limit (M-3σ) of the regularity determination distribution range Is less than the lower limit allowable value M × Ta or when the upper limit value (M + 3σ) of the regularity discriminating distribution range is equal to or higher than the upper limit allowable value M × Tb, the set cycle for the power load total amount below the rated output of the set cycle There is a large variation every time, and every setting cycle Energy to determine that there is no regularity in consumption, to perform the power load following operation process as said preliminary operation processed.

FIG. 29 shows the average value and standard deviation of the power load below the rated output per unit time within the set period and the total power load below the rated output of the set period within the set period for each of the house a and house b. It is the figure which showed the average value and the standard deviation.
The regularity discriminating distribution range where the lower limit value is (M-3σ) and the upper limit value is (M + 3σ) is narrower in house B than house a, and house B is less than the rated output of the set cycle. It can be seen that the variation in the total amount for each set cycle is small and the energy consumption for each set cycle is regular.

[ Seventh Embodiment]
In the seventh embodiment, in the regularity determination process, the energy saving rate when the load cover condition operation process is executed for the set period is more than the energy saving rate when the power load follow-up operation process as the preliminary operation process is executed. It is configured to discriminate whether or not there is regularity in the energy consumption for each set period, using the frequency of lowering as a discrimination index. In addition, an energy saving rate is calculated | required based on said Formula (1).

If it adds explanation, the operation control part 5 performed the electric power load follow-up operation process as the energy-saving rate when the load cover condition operation process was executed, and the preliminary operation process for each of the set cycles (1 day) Find the energy saving rate when.
That is, when the power load follow-up operation process is executed as the preliminary operation process in a certain setting cycle, the energy saving rate when the power load follow-up operation process is executed is obtained, and the load cover condition operation process is executed. The energy saving rate at that time is obtained.
In addition, when the load cover condition operation processing is executed in a certain set cycle, the energy saving rate when the load cover condition operation is executed is obtained, and the actual power load of the set cycle is measured. Assuming that the power load following operation processing as the preliminary operation processing is executed based on the actual power load, an energy saving rate is obtained when the power load following operation processing is executed.

  Then, in the set period, the frequency at which the energy saving rate when executing the load cover condition operation processing for the set cycle is lower than the energy saving rate when executing the power load following operation processing as the preliminary operation processing is obtained, When the obtained frequency is lower than the operation frequency determination setting frequency (for example, 50 to 60%), it is determined that there is regularity in energy consumption for each setting period, and the load cover condition operation processing is executed, When the obtained frequency is equal to or higher than the operation state determination setting frequency, it is determined that there is no regularity in energy consumption for each set cycle, and power load following operation processing is executed as the preliminary operation processing.

[ Eighth Embodiment]
In the eighth embodiment, in the regularity determination process, the energy efficiency when the load cover condition operation process is executed for a set period is more than the energy efficiency when the power load following operation process is executed as the preliminary operation process. It is configured to discriminate whether or not there is regularity in the energy consumption for each set period, using the frequency of lowering as a discrimination index. In addition, energy efficiency is calculated | required based on following formula (7), for example.

  Energy efficiency = (total amount of actual heat load in the set cycle) / (energy amount of the fuel cell 1 in the set cycle + energy amount of the auxiliary heating boiler J in the set cycle) (7)

If it explains, operation control part 5 performed power load follow-up operation processing as the energy efficiency at the time of performing load-covering condition operation processing, and the above-mentioned preliminary operation processing about each of setting cycle (one day) Find the energy efficiency when.
That is, when the power load follow-up operation process as the preliminary operation process is executed in a certain set cycle, the energy efficiency when the power load follow-up operation process is executed is obtained, and the load cover condition operation process is executed. The energy efficiency at that time is calculated.
In addition, when the load cover condition operation processing is executed in a certain set cycle, the energy efficiency when the load cover condition operation is executed is obtained, and the actual power load of the set cycle is measured. Assuming that the power load follow-up operation process as the preliminary operation process is executed based on the actual power load, the energy efficiency when the power load follow-up operation process is executed is obtained.

  Then, in the set period, the frequency at which the energy efficiency when executing the load cover condition operation process for the set period is lower than the energy efficiency when executing the power load following operation process as the preliminary operation process is obtained, When the obtained frequency is lower than the operation frequency determination setting frequency (for example, 50 to 60%), it is determined that there is regularity in energy consumption for each setting period, and the load cover condition operation processing is executed, When the obtained frequency is equal to or higher than the operation state determination setting frequency, it is determined that there is no regularity in energy consumption for each set cycle, and power load following operation processing is executed as the preliminary operation processing.

[ Ninth Embodiment]
In the ninth embodiment, in the regularity determination process, the energy reduction amount when the load cover condition operation process is executed for the set period is the energy reduction when the power load following operation process is executed as the preliminary operation process. It is configured to determine whether or not there is regularity in energy consumption for each set period, using a frequency smaller than the amount as a determination index. The energy reduction amount R is obtained based on, for example, the following formula (8).

R = (A + x ÷ η) − (B + Z) (8)
In the above equation (8), A, x, η, B, and Z are the same as those in the above equation (1).

If it adds explanation, the operation control part 5 will perform the electric power load follow-up operation process as the amount of energy reduction when performing a load cover condition operation process, and the said preliminary operation process about each of a setting period (1 day). Find the amount of energy reduction when you do.
In other words, when the power load follow-up operation process is executed as the preliminary operation process in a certain set cycle, the energy reduction amount when the power load follow-up operation process is executed is obtained, and the load cover condition operation process is executed. If so, calculate the amount of energy reduction at that time.
Also, when the load cover condition operation processing is executed in a certain set cycle, the amount of energy reduction when the load cover condition operation is executed is obtained, and the actual power load of the set cycle is measured. Assuming that the power load follow-up operation process is executed as the preliminary operation process based on the actual power load, an energy reduction amount is obtained when the power load follow-up operation process is executed.

  Then, in the set period, the frequency of energy reduction when executing the load cover condition operation process for the set period is determined to be smaller than the energy reduction amount when executing the power load following operation process as the preliminary operation process. When the determined frequency is lower than the operation state determination setting frequency (for example, 50 to 60%), it is determined that there is regularity in energy consumption for each set period, and the load cover condition operation process is executed. When the obtained frequency is equal to or higher than the operation state determination setting frequency, it is determined that there is no regularity in energy consumption for each set cycle, and the power load following operation process is executed as the preliminary operation process.

First 0 Embodiment
In the tenth embodiment, in the regularity determination process, the economy when the load cover condition operation process is executed for the set cycle is the economy when the power load following operation process as the preliminary operation process is executed. It is configured to discriminate whether or not there is regularity in the energy consumption for each set period, using the frequency of worsening as a discrimination index.
The economic efficiency is the total of the charge of commercial power from the commercial system 7, the charge of gas used in the fuel cell 1, and the charge of gas used in the auxiliary heating boiler J.

If it explains, operation control part 5 performed the power load follow-up operation processing as the economics at the time of performing load cover condition operation processing, and the above-mentioned preliminary operation processing about each of setting cycle (one day) Find the economics of time.
That is, when the power load follow-up operation process as the preliminary operation process is executed in a certain set cycle, the economics when the power load follow-up operation process is executed is obtained, and the load cover condition operation process is executed. As such, the economics at that time is sought.
In addition, when the load cover condition operation processing is executed in a certain setting cycle, the economic efficiency when the load cover condition operation is executed is obtained, and the actual power load of the set cycle is measured. Assuming that the power load following operation processing as the preliminary operation processing is executed based on the actual power load, the economic efficiency when the power load following operation processing is executed is obtained.

  And in the set period, the frequency when the economical operation when the load cover condition operation process is executed for the set period is determined to be worse than the economic effect when the power load follow-up operation process as the preliminary operation process is executed, When the obtained frequency is lower than the operation frequency determination setting frequency (for example, 50 to 60%), it is determined that there is regularity in energy consumption for each setting period, and the load cover condition operation processing is executed, When the obtained frequency is equal to or higher than the operation state determination setting frequency, it is determined that there is no regularity in energy consumption for each set cycle, and power load following operation processing is executed as the preliminary operation processing.

First Embodiment 1]
In the first embodiment, the operation control unit 5, the Data Management process for each set cycle in association with the past time-series heat load data and series power load data time attribute when the past It is configured to manage.
In the regularity determination process, the operation control unit 5 uses the variation for each set cycle with respect to the total amount of hot water supply heat load of the set cycle having the same time attribute as the set cycle for the operation target as a determination index. It is configured to determine whether consumption is regular or not.

In the following description, the setting cycle is 1 day and the time attribute is the day of the week.
In the data management process, the operation control unit 5 manages the total amount of hot water supply heat load for each day in a state associated with the day of the week over a set period (for example, 5 weeks before the operation day).
Then, in the regularity determination process, the operation control unit 5 extracts the total amount of hot water supply heat load on the same day as the operation day from the management data, and determines the variation for each set cycle with respect to the extracted total amount of hot water supply heat load. As described above, it is determined whether or not the energy consumption for each set period has regularity.

More specifically, the average value M of the total hot water supply heat load on the same day as the operation day in the set period is determined, and the maximum value MAX and the minimum value MIN of the total hot water load on the same day as the operation day are determined.
Then, the ratio MAX / M of the maximum value with respect to the average value and the ratio MIM / M of the minimum value with respect to the average value are obtained, the ratio MIM / M of the minimum value with respect to the average value is larger than the lower limit allowable value Ga, and the average When the ratio MAX / M of the maximum value to the value is smaller than the upper limit allowable value Gb, the variation in the set cycle for the total hot water heat load on the same day as the operation day is small, and the energy consumption on the day of the operation day is regulated. The load cover condition driving process is executed, and the ratio MIM / M of the minimum value to the average value is less than or equal to the lower limit allowable value Ga, or the ratio MAX / M of the maximum value to the average value is When the upper limit allowable value Gb is exceeded, it is determined that there is a large variation in the total hot water supply heat load on the same day as the operation day for each set cycle, and there is no regularity in the energy consumption on the operation day. processing Performing power load following operation processed.

For example, as shown in FIG. 30, the ratio MAX / M of the maximum value with respect to the average value of the house a and the ratio MIM / M of the minimum value with respect to the average value are 1.51 and 0.40, respectively. When the ratio MAX / M of the maximum value to the value and the ratio MIM / M of the minimum value to the average value are 1.05 and 0.81, respectively, The variation in the set cycle is large, and there is no regularity in the energy consumption on the day of the operation day. House B has a small variation in the total hot water supply heat load on the same day as the operation day and the operation day. Suppose there is regularity in energy consumption on the day of the week.
For example, if the lower limit allowable value Ga and the upper limit allowable value Gb are set to 0.6 and 1.3, respectively, it is possible to appropriately determine whether or not there is regularity in energy consumption.

[First Embodiment 2 ]
In the first and second embodiments, the operation control unit 5, the Data Management process for each set cycle in association with the past time-series heat load data and series power load data time attribute when the past Configured to manage.
In addition, in the regularity determination process, the operation control unit 5 has a time period in which the hot water supply heat load per unit time is maximum (that is, the maximum hot water supply heat) in the set period having the same time attribute as the set period for the operation target. It is configured to determine whether or not there is regularity in energy consumption for each set period, using a variation for each set period with respect to (load generation time) as a determination index.

In the following description, the setting cycle is 1 day and the time attribute is the day of the week.
In the data management process, the operation control unit 5 sets the hot water supply heat load for each unit time (1 hour) per unit time in a state associated with the day of the week over a set period (for example, 5 weeks before the operation day). Manage in association with.
And in the regularity discrimination | determination process, the operation control part 5 extracts the maximum hot water supply thermal load generation time on the same day as the operation day from the management data, and sets the extracted maximum hot water supply thermal load generation time for each set cycle. Using the variation as a discrimination index, it is discriminated whether or not there is regularity in energy consumption for each set period.

More specifically, the average value M of the maximum hot water supply thermal load occurrence time on the same day as the operation day within the set period is obtained, and the maximum value MAX and the minimum value MIN of the maximum hot water supply heat load generation time on the same day as the operation day are calculated. Ask for.
Then, the difference between the maximum value and the average value (MAX-M) and the difference between the average value and the minimum value (M-MIN) are determined, and the difference between the maximum value and the average value (MAX-M), and When the difference between the average value and the minimum value (M-MIN) is smaller than the allowable value H, the variation of the maximum hot water supply heat load occurrence time on the same day as the operation day is small and the operation is performed. It is determined that there is regularity in the energy consumption of the day of the week, and the load-covering condition operation process is executed, the difference between the maximum value and the average value (MAX-M), and the difference between the average value and the minimum value When at least one of (M-MIN) is greater than or equal to the allowable value H, there is a large variation in the set cycle with respect to the maximum hot water supply thermal load occurrence time on the same day as the operation day, and regularity in energy consumption on the operation day It is determined that there is no power load follow-up operation process as the preliminary operation process. To run.

For example, as shown in FIG. 31, the difference between the maximum value and the average value of the house a (MAX-M), and the difference between the average value and the minimum value (M-MIN) are 6.2 and 5.8, respectively. Yes, if the difference between the maximum value and the average value of B House (MAX-M) and the difference between the average value and the minimum value (M-MIN) are 0.6 and 0.4, respectively, The maximum hot water supply heat load generation time on the same day as the operation day has a large variation for each set cycle, and there is no regularity in energy consumption on the operation day. It is assumed that the variation in the load generation time for each set cycle is small and the energy consumption on the day of the driving day is regular.
For example, when the allowable value H is set to 1.0, it is possible to appropriately determine whether the energy consumption is regular.

[First Embodiment 3 ]
Since the first to third embodiments show other embodiments of the preliminary operation processing in the above-described reference embodiment and the first to first and second embodiments, mainly the preliminary operation processing will be described. Description of the same configurations as those of the above-described reference embodiment and the first to first and second embodiments is omitted.

That is, in the first to third embodiments, the operation control unit 5 is obtained from the difference between the currently requested current power load and the provisional power generation output of the fuel cell 1 temporarily set as the preliminary operation process. The sum of the primary energy consumption when the insufficient power is covered by power purchase from the commercial system 7 and the primary energy consumption when the temporary power generation output is covered by the fuel cell 1 is minimized. The power generation merit priority operation process for operating the fuel cell 1 at the optimum power generation output is executed.

The power generation merit priority operation process will be explained.
For example, the load power of the power load device 9 is LkW, the power generation output of the fuel cell 1 is DkW, and the power generation efficiency of the fuel cell 1 when the power generation output is DkW is e (D). Assuming that the power generation efficiency of the power plant that supplies power to ep is ep, the optimum power generation output is a power generation output D that minimizes F (D) in the following equation (9).

F (D) = [Max (LD, 0) / ep + D / e (D)] (9)

In other words, the first term of the above formula (9) represents the primary energy consumption when power shortage: (LD) is covered by power purchase, and the second term represents the fuel cell 1 at the power generation output: D. It represents the primary energy consumption when operated. Since the power generation efficiency e (D) of the fuel cell 1 changes according to the power generation output, the value of F (D) also changes when the power generation output of the fuel cell 1 changes. Therefore, if the fuel cell 1 is operated at the power generation output D where the value of F (D) is minimized, the energy for power supply is controlled while suppressing the excess or deficiency of the output power of the fuel cell 1 with respect to the actual power load. The fuel cell 1 can be operated so as to maximize the efficiency.
Then, the optimum power generation output D that minimizes the F (D) is periodically derived at the set timing, and the fuel cell 1 may be operated with the power generation output D.

FIG. 32 shows a flowchart in the case where the power generation merit priority operation process is executed instead of the power load following operation process as the preliminary operation process in the reference embodiment described above.
That is, the lower limit value (M-3σ) of the set probability generation range is compared with the operation stop determination reference value Ka (M) (step A1), and the lower limit value (M-3σ) of the set probability generation range is operated. When it is higher than the stop determination reference value Ka (M), the upper limit value (M + 3σ) of the set probability generation range is compared with the preliminary operation processing determination reference value Kb (M) (step A3), and the set probability is generated. When the upper limit value (M + 3σ) of the range is equal to or larger than the judgment reference value Kb (M) for the preliminary operation process, the power generation merit priority operation process is executed as the preliminary operation process (step 300), the process returns, and the set probability generation range When the upper limit value (M + 3σ) is lower than the preliminary operation processing determination reference value Kb (M), the above-mentioned load-covering condition operation processing is executed.

Moreover, in said 1st Embodiment, it replaces with the said electric power load follow-up operation process as said preliminary operation process, and the flowchart at the time of comprising so that the power generation merit priority operation process may be performed is shown in FIG.
That is, the lower limit value (M-3σ) of the set probability generation range is compared with the lower limit allowable value M × Ta (step B1), and the lower limit value (M-3σ) of the set probability generation range is the lower limit allowable value M ×. When it is equal to or lower than Ta, the power generation merit priority operation process is executed as the preliminary operation process (step 300), the process returns, and the lower limit (M-3σ) of the set probability generation range is larger than the lower limit allowable value M × Ta. When the upper limit value (M + 3σ) of the set probability generation range is compared with the upper limit allowable value M × Tb (step B2), and the upper limit value (M + 3σ) of the set probability generation range is equal to or greater than the upper limit allowable value M × Tb Performs a power generation merit priority operation process as the preliminary operation process (step 300), returns, and when the upper limit value (M + 3σ) of the set probability generation range is smaller than the upper limit allowable value M × Tb, Driving process It will be line.

[Another embodiment]
Next, another embodiment will be described.
(A) As shown in FIG. 34, in said 1st Embodiment, driving | running state selection control is the driving | running state selection control similar to 2nd Embodiment, ie, the energy consumption for every set period which consists of several unit time. Is determined to be regular, and when it is determined that there is regularity in energy consumption for each set cycle, the load cover condition operation process is executed, and regularity is found in energy consumption for each set cycle. When it is determined that there is not, it may be changed to a configuration in which a preliminary operation process is executed.
That is, in step D1, it is determined whether or not the energy consumption for each set period is regular. If it is determined that the energy consumption is not regular, for example, a power load following operation process is executed as a preliminary operation process. (Step 13), when it returns and it is determined that there is regularity in energy consumption, the load cover condition operation process is executed.

Further, in another embodiment shown in FIG. 34, the regularity determination processing in the operation-state selection control, in addition regularity determination process of the second embodiment, any regularity determine the third to the first 0 embodiment Processing can be applied.

(B) In the above-described reference embodiment, when step A3 in the flowchart shown in FIG. 5 is omitted and the lower limit value of the set probability generation range is larger than the determination criterion value for operation stop, the load is unconditionally You may comprise so that a bribe condition driving | running | working process may be performed.

(C) In the first embodiment described above, when the lower limit value (M−3σ) of the set probability generation range is equal to or lower than the lower limit allowable value M × Ta, the power load following operation process as the preliminary operation process is executed. Although configured, the fuel cell 1 may be configured to stop when the lower limit value (M−3σ) of the set probability generation range is equal to or lower than the lower limit allowable value M × Ta.
In this case, the lower limit allowable value M × Ta corresponds to the judgment reference value for operation stop, and a range that may occur with a probability higher than the setting in the distribution in the plurality of setting cycles for the total hot water heat load amount in the setting cycle, that is, When the lower limit value of the set probability generation range is higher than the operation stop determination reference value, the load cover condition operation process is executed, and when the lower limit value is equal to or less than the operation stop determination reference value, the fuel cell 1 is stopped. Will be configured.

(D) In the second embodiment described above, the operating state selection control may occur at a probability higher than the setting in the distribution in the plurality of setting cycles for the hot water supply heat load total amount in the setting cycle, that is, the setting probability. When the lower limit value of the generation range is higher than the operation stop determination reference value, the load cover condition operation process is executed, and when the lower limit value is less than the operation stop determination reference value, the fuel cell 1 is stopped. May be.

(E) In the above reference embodiment and each of the first to sixth embodiments, past time-series thermal load data and past time-series power load data are associated with time attributes (for example, day of the week). In the operation state selection control, data on the same day as the operation day may be used in the management state selection control.

(F) In the sixth embodiment described above, the fuel cell 1 of the power load per unit time in the set cycle is used as a determination index for determining whether or not the energy consumption for each set cycle is regular. Although the variation of the total amount below the rated output power is applied, the variation of the total amount below the maximum output power (for example, 1 kW) of the fuel cell 1 among the power loads per unit time in the set cycle is applied. You may do it.

(G) In the embodiment and the first implementation mode of the reference range that can occur with a probability of more than the set in the distribution of a plurality of setting periods for hot water supply heat total load setting period, i.e., the setting The probability generation range can be changed and set, for example, in a range where the lower limit value is (M−2σ) and the upper limit value is (M + 2σ). In this case, the set probability generation range is a range that may occur with a probability of about 95%.
In each of the above second to sixth embodiments, the regularity discrimination distribution range can be changed and set, for example, in a range where the lower limit value is (M−2σ) and the upper limit value is (M + 2σ). May be set.

(H) In each of the second to first to second embodiments, in the regularity determination process, the variation in the set cycle with respect to the total hot water supply heat load in the set cycle, the hot water supply heat per unit time in the set cycle Variation for each set cycle with respect to the maximum value of the load, variation for each set cycle for a time zone in which the hot water supply heat load for each unit time is maximum among the set cycles, and heating heat for the set cycle Less than the rated output power of the combined heat and power supply unit among the variation for each set cycle for the total load, the variation for each set cycle for the total power load for the set cycle, and the power load for each unit time in the set cycle Or the variation for each set cycle with respect to the total amount below the maximum output power, when the load cover condition operation processing is executed for the set cycle The frequency at which the energy rate is lower than the energy saving rate when the preliminary operation processing is executed, the energy efficiency when the load cover condition operation processing is executed for the set period is higher than the energy efficiency when the preliminary operation processing is executed , The frequency at which the energy reduction amount when executing the load cover condition operation processing for the set cycle is smaller than the energy reduction amount at the time of executing the preliminary operation processing, and the load for the set cycle An example was given of the case where any one of the frequencies at which the economic efficiency when executing the bridging condition operation processing is worse than the economic efficiency when executing the preliminary operation processing is used as the discrimination index. You may comprise so that the above may be used as a discrimination | determination parameter | index.

(L) In each of the reference embodiment, the first embodiment, and each of the other embodiments shown in FIG. 34, the operation control unit 5 predicts both the heat shortage state and the heat excess state. Although the case where it is configured to do is illustrated, only one of them may be predicted.
And when it is configured to predict a heat shortage state, the load-covering operation condition is set to a power load following operation process when the heat shortage state is not predicted, and when a heat shortage state is predicted, In the output increase target time zone, the condition for performing the output increase operation for adjusting the output of the fuel cell 1 to the output side larger than the current power load is set. In this case, steps 11 and 100 are omitted in FIGS. 5, 14 and 34, respectively.
Also, when the heat surplus state is predicted, when the load surplus state is not predicted, the power load following operation process is performed when the heat surplus state is not predicted. In the output lowering target time zone, the condition for performing the output lowering operation for adjusting the output of the fuel cell 1 to the output side smaller than the current power load is set. In this case, steps 12 and 200 are omitted in FIGS. 5, 14 and 34, respectively.

(N) When the hot water supply heat load for hot water filling and the general hot water supply heat load are managed separately as the hot water supply heat load, and hot water supply heat load data is used in the operation state selection control, the hot water supply heat for hot water filling You may comprise so that any one of a load and a general hot water supply heat load may be used.

(L) Setting examples of the unit time, the setting cycle, and the setting period are not limited to the examples shown in the above embodiment. For example, the unit time can be set to 30 minutes, 2 hours, or the like. The set cycle can be set to 12 hours, 2 days, 1 week, or the like. The set period can be set to 1 week, 2 weeks, 3 weeks, 2 months, 3 months, or the like.

(W) A specific example of the time attribute is not limited to the day of the week, and for example, weekdays and holidays can be used.

(W) Specific examples of the preliminary operation processing are not limited to the power load following operation processing and the power generation merit priority operation processing exemplified in the above embodiments.
For example, an operation process of continuously performing a constant output operation for maintaining the power generation output of the fuel cell 1 at a setting output for preliminary operation lower than the rated output (for example, 25% of the rated output), or the constant output operation is performed. An intermittent operation process can be employed.

(F) As the combined heat and power supply apparatus, the fuel cell 1 is applied in the above embodiment, but in addition to this, for example, various apparatuses such as a structure in which a generator is driven by a gas engine may be applied. it can.

Schematic configuration diagram of a cogeneration system according to a reference embodiment Control block diagram of cogeneration system according to reference embodiment The figure explaining electric power load following operation processing Diagram showing predicted power load data and predicted heat load data The figure which shows the flowchart of the control action concerning reference embodiment. The figure which shows the flowchart of the control action concerning reference embodiment. The figure which shows the flowchart of the control action concerning reference embodiment. Figure showing calculation conditions (b) and calculation results (b) for predicted heat storage Figure showing calculation conditions (b) and calculation results (b) for predicted heat storage Figure showing calculation conditions (b) and calculation results (b) for predicted heat storage Figure showing calculation conditions (b) and calculation results (b) for predicted heat storage Figure showing calculation conditions (b) and calculation results (b) for predicted heat storage The figure which shows the relationship between the energy saving rate y and the hot water supply heat load x The figure which shows the flowchart of the control action concerning 1st Embodiment. Control block diagram of cogeneration system according to second embodiment Control block diagram of cogeneration system according to second embodiment The figure which shows prediction electric power load data, prediction heating heat load data, and prediction hot water supply heat load data The figure for demonstrating the prediction effective hot water storage amount about the 1st prediction hot water supply heat load, a prediction energy reduction ratio, etc. The figure for demonstrating the predicted effective hot water storage amount, predicted energy reduction ratio, etc. for the second predicted hot water supply heat load A diagram for explaining temporary operation prediction effective hot water storage amount, temporary operation energy reduction ratio, etc. when provisional operation is performed according to the provisional operation schedule The figure which shows the flowchart of the control action concerning 2nd Embodiment. The figure which shows the flowchart of the control action concerning 2nd Embodiment. The figure which shows the flowchart of the control action concerning 2nd Embodiment. The figure which shows the flowchart of the control action concerning 2nd Embodiment. The figure explaining the dispersion | variation for every setting period about the hot water supply heat load total amount of a setting period The figure explaining the variation for every setting period about the maximum hot water supply heat load generation time The figure explaining the variation for every setting period about the heating thermal load total amount of a setting period The figure explaining the dispersion | variation for every setting period about the electric load total amount of a setting period The figure explaining the variation for every setting cycle about the power output total amount below the rated output of the setting cycle The figure explaining the dispersion | variation for every setting period about the hot water supply heat load total amount according to a day of the week The figure explaining the dispersion | variation for every setting period about the maximum hot water supply heat load generation | occurrence | production time according to a day of the week The figure which shows the flowchart of the control action concerning 13th Embodiment. The figure which shows the flowchart of the control action concerning 13th Embodiment. The figure which shows the flowchart of the control action concerning another embodiment.

Explanation of symbols

1 Cogeneration device 2 Hot water storage tank 4 Hot water storage means 5 Operation control means

Claims (8)

A cogeneration device for generating electric power and heat, a hot water storage means for storing hot water in a hot water storage tank with heat generated by the cogeneration device, and an operation control means for controlling operation,
The operation control means manages the past time-series heat load data and the past time-series power load data, and the time-series predicted heat load data obtained based on the management data And setting a load-covering operation condition for operating the cogeneration device so as to cover time-series predicted power load data, and operating the cogeneration device under the load-coverage operation condition A cogeneration system configured to execute an operation process,
The operation control means has regularity in energy consumption for each set period consisting of a plurality of unit times based on management data related to the past time-series thermal load data or the past time-series power load data. When it is determined that there is regularity in the energy consumption by performing regularity determination processing for determining whether or not there is, the load cover condition operation processing is performed, and it is determined that there is no regularity in the energy consumption Is configured to execute a preparatory operation process different from the load cover condition operation process , and
By operating the combined heat and power supply device so as to cover the time-series predicted power load data, a heat shortage state in which heat is insufficient with respect to the time-series predicted heat load data, or the time It is configured to predict whether there will be excess heat with respect to the series of predicted heat load data,
When the load-covering operation condition does not predict either the heat shortage state or the heat surplus state, a power load follow-up operation process for operating the cogeneration device to cover the current power load that is currently requested is performed. When the heat shortage state is predicted, in a predetermined output increase target time zone, perform an output increase operation to adjust the output of the combined heat and power supply device to an output side larger than the current power load, or the excess heat A cogeneration system that is a condition for performing an output reduction operation for adjusting the output of the cogeneration device to an output side smaller than the current power load in a predetermined output reduction target time zone when the state is predicted . A cogeneration device for generating electric power and heat, a hot water storage means for storing hot water in a hot water storage tank with heat generated by the cogeneration device, and an operation control means for controlling operation,
The operation control means manages the past time-series heat load data and the past time-series power load data, and the time-series predicted heat load data obtained based on the management data And setting a load-covering operation condition for operating the cogeneration device so as to cover time-series predicted power load data, and operating the cogeneration device under the load-coverage operation condition A cogeneration system configured to execute an operation process,
The operation control means has regularity in energy consumption for each set period consisting of a plurality of unit times based on management data related to the past time-series thermal load data or the past time-series power load data. When it is determined that there is regularity in the energy consumption by performing regularity determination processing for determining whether or not there is, the load cover condition operation processing is performed, and it is determined that there is no regularity in the energy consumption Is configured to execute a preparatory operation process different from the load cover condition operation process, and
Predicted hot water storage amount stored as hot water in the hot water storage tank when operating the combined heat and power device, predicted consumed energy amount when operating a power plant and a heating boiler, and predicted predicted consumed energy amount when operating the combined heat and power device And calculating a predicted energy reduction ratio that is a ratio of the predicted energy reduction amount to the predicted hot water storage amount, and an energy reduction ratio threshold value based on the calculated predicted energy reduction ratio And the current energy reduction ratio for the increased output from the minimum output of the combined heat and power unit based on the power load data and heat load data on the operating day and the past power load data and heat load data. Configured to calculate a certain current energy reduction ratio,
When the load-covering operation condition is such that the current energy reduction ratio is smaller than the energy reduction ratio threshold value, the combined heat and power unit is operated at a minimum output, and the current energy reduction ratio is equal to or greater than the energy reduction ratio threshold value. If it is, the cogeneration system which is the conditions which drive | operate the said combined heat and power supply apparatus on the driving | running conditions used as the said present energy reduction ratio . The operation control means is
In the data management process, the heat load data is configured to manage a hot water supply heat load or a heating heat load,
In the regularity determination process, the variation for each set cycle with respect to the total amount of hot water supply thermal load for the set cycle, the variation for each set cycle with respect to the maximum value of the hot water supply thermal load for each unit time in the set cycle, Among the set cycles, variation for each set cycle for a time zone in which the hot water supply thermal load per unit time is maximum, variation for each set cycle for the heating heat load total amount of the set cycle, and power for the set cycle Variations in the set cycle for the total load, and the power load per unit time in the set cycle, the rated output power of the combined heat and power unit or less than the maximum output power for the set amount for the set cycle. When the preparatory operation process is executed when the energy saving rate when the load cover condition operation process is executed for the set period is varied. The frequency at which the energy efficiency is lower than the energy saving rate, the frequency at which the energy efficiency when executing the load-covering condition operation process for the set period is lower than the energy efficiency at the time of executing the preliminary operation process, and the load for the set period The frequency at which the energy reduction amount when executing the bridging condition operation process is smaller than the energy reduction amount when executing the preliminary operation process, or the economics when executing the load bridging condition operation process for the set period The system is configured to determine whether or not there is regularity in energy consumption for each set period, using as a determination index a frequency that is worse than economic efficiency when the preliminary operation processing is executed. 2. The cogeneration system according to 2. A cogeneration device for generating electric power and heat, a hot water storage means for storing hot water in a hot water storage tank with heat generated by the cogeneration device, and an operation control means for controlling operation,
The operation control means manages the past time-series heat load data and the past time-series power load data, and the time-series predicted heat load data obtained based on the management data And setting a load-covering operation condition for operating the cogeneration device so as to cover time-series predicted power load data, and operating the cogeneration device under the load-coverage operation condition A cogeneration system configured to execute an operation process,
The operation control means is
In the data management process, the heat load data is configured to manage a hot water supply heat load,
Based on the management data related to the past time-series hot water supply thermal load, when the variation in the set hot water supply heat load of the set cycle consisting of a plurality of unit times is small for each set cycle, the load cover condition operation processing is executed. And when the variation is large, it is configured to execute a preliminary operation process different from the load-covering condition operation process, and
By operating the combined heat and power supply device so as to cover the time-series predicted power load data, a heat shortage state in which heat is insufficient with respect to the time-series predicted heat load data, or the time It is configured to predict whether there will be excess heat with respect to the series of predicted heat load data,
When the load-covering operation condition does not predict either the heat shortage state or the heat surplus state, a power load follow-up operation process for operating the cogeneration device to cover the current power load that is currently requested is performed. When the heat shortage state is predicted, in a predetermined output increase target time zone, perform an output increase operation to adjust the output of the combined heat and power supply device to an output side larger than the current power load, or the excess heat A cogeneration system that is a condition for performing an output reduction operation for adjusting the output of the cogeneration device to an output side smaller than the current power load in a predetermined output reduction target time zone when the state is predicted . A cogeneration device for generating electric power and heat, a hot water storage means for storing hot water in a hot water storage tank with heat generated by the cogeneration device, and an operation control means for controlling operation,
The operation control means manages the past time-series heat load data and the past time-series power load data, and the time-series predicted heat load data obtained based on the management data And setting a load-covering operation condition for operating the cogeneration device so as to cover time-series predicted power load data, and operating the cogeneration device under the load-coverage operation condition A cogeneration system configured to execute an operation process,
The operation control means is
In the data management process, the heat load data is configured to manage a hot water supply heat load,
Based on the management data related to the past time-series hot water supply thermal load, when the variation in the set hot water supply heat load of the set cycle consisting of a plurality of unit times is small for each set cycle, the load cover condition operation processing is executed. And when the variation is large, it is configured to execute a preliminary operation process different from the load-covering condition operation process, and
Predicted hot water storage amount stored as hot water in the hot water storage tank when operating the combined heat and power device, predicted consumed energy amount when operating a power plant and a heating boiler, and predicted predicted consumed energy amount when operating the combined heat and power device And calculating a predicted energy reduction ratio that is a ratio of the predicted energy reduction amount to the predicted hot water storage amount, and an energy reduction ratio threshold value based on the calculated predicted energy reduction ratio And the current energy reduction ratio for the increased output from the minimum output of the combined heat and power unit based on the power load data and heat load data on the operating day and the past power load data and heat load data. Configured to calculate a certain current energy reduction ratio,
When the load-covering operation condition is such that the current energy reduction ratio is smaller than the energy reduction ratio threshold value, the combined heat and power unit is operated at a minimum output, and the current energy reduction ratio is equal to or greater than the energy reduction ratio threshold value. If it is, the cogeneration system which is the conditions which drive | operate the said combined heat and power supply apparatus on the driving | running conditions used as the said present energy reduction ratio . The cogeneration system according to any one of claims 1 to 5, wherein the preliminary operation process is an electric power load follow-up operation process for operating the cogeneration device so as to cover a currently requested current electric power load . Primary energy consumption when the preliminary operation process covers the insufficient power required by the difference between the currently requested current power load and the provisional power generation output of the cogeneration device temporarily set by power purchase, and a generator merit priority operating process for operating the cogeneration device sum of primary energy consumption in smallest such power output when financed the temporary power output by the cogeneration system according to claim 1 to 5 The cogeneration system according to any one of the above. As the setting period, there is a setting period of a plurality of time attributes that exist for each setting repetition period,
The operation control means is configured to manage the past time-series thermal load data and the past time-series power load data for each set period in association with the time attribute in the data management process. The cogeneration system according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

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