CN113313368B - Tourist ship security and control capability evaluation method based on entropy weight extension theory - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides a tourist ship security and control capability evaluation method based on entropy weight extension theory, which comprises the following steps: constructing a tourist ship security and control capability evaluation index system; obtaining the weight of each evaluation index by adopting an entropy weight method; establishing a CMM (China mobile multimedia broadcasting) object capability level model, and determining a security and control capability evaluation level of the target trunk line tourist ship; according to the evaluation grade, establishing a classical domain, a saving domain and an evaluation object element for evaluating the security and control capability of the target trunk line tourist ship; establishing association functions of various evaluation indexes and the evaluation grades in an evaluation index system, and calculating association degrees; and determining the security and control capability evaluation grade of the target trunk line tourist ship by adopting a maximum association degree selection method according to the association degree. The invention provides a new method for evaluating the security and control capability of inland ships.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of security engineering ship security, in particular to a tourist ship security and control capability evaluation method based on entropy weight extension theory.
Background
Currently, the number of inland river trunks in the camping and rolling vessels (rolling vessels) is increasing. Because the enterprise has limited budget for safety prevention and control, the security management level is difficult to reach the standard, and the security hidden trouble falls into the dead cycle of repairing, rebounding, repairing again and rebounding, the risk coefficient of the security event of the passenger ship is increased. Therefore, on the basis of carefully summarizing and absorbing the practical demands of the public security accident teaching and training of important ships on the main lines of rivers, the public security and control capability of the tourist ship is evaluated by combining with the practical demands of public security and management of the tourist ship, and factors affecting the public security and control capability of the ship are accurately and quantitatively analyzed, so that the public security and the security of the ship are improved, and the security of passengers and the ship is ensured.
At present, aiming at ship safety evaluation, a great deal of researches are carried out by students at home and abroad, but most of the researches are focused on ship navigation safety evaluation, so that the researches on ship security evaluation are less, and particularly, the researches on security control capability evaluation of the Yangtze river trunk tourist ship are more lacking.
Disclosure of Invention
According to the technical problem of lack of a ship security evaluation system, the method for evaluating the security control capability of the tourist passenger ship based on the entropy weight extension theory is provided. The invention provides a new method for evaluating the security and control capability of the inland trunk tourist ship.
The invention adopts the following technical means:
a tourist ship security and control capability evaluation method based on entropy weight extension theory comprises the following steps:
s101, constructing a tourist ship security and control capability evaluation index system;
s102, calculating each index weight by adopting an entropy weight method;
s103, establishing a CMM (China Mobile multimedia broadcasting) material element capability level model, and determining a security and control capability evaluation level of the target trunk line tourist ship;
s104, establishing a classical domain, a saving domain and an evaluation object element for evaluating the security and control capability of the target trunk line tourist ship according to the evaluation grade;
s105, establishing association functions of various evaluation indexes and the evaluation grades in an evaluation index system, and calculating association degrees;
and S106, determining the security and control capability evaluation grade of the target trunk line tourist ship by adopting a maximum association degree selection method according to the association degree.
Further, the evaluation index system described in step S101 includes:
the first-level index A is the security and control capability of the tourist ship; the primary index A comprises 4 classes of secondary indexes: civil air defense condition B 1 Condition B of preventing things 2 Condition B of technical defence 3 Mechanism Condition B 4 Wherein:
the second-level index civil air defense condition B 1 The method comprises the following 4 classes of three-level evaluation indexes: public security and control professional equipment proportion B 11 Frequency B of public security education and training 12 Public security risk management training frequency B 13 Drill frequency B of public security emergency plan 14 ；
The second level index prevents the situation B 2 The method comprises the following 4 classes of three-level evaluation indexes: quantity B of public security equipment 21 Frequency B of use of security equipment 22 Maintenance frequency B of security control equipment 23 Maintenance frequency B of public security, protection and control emergency places 24 ；
The technical protection condition B of the secondary index 3 The method comprises the following 4 classes of three-level evaluation indexes: quantity of informationized facilities equipment B 31 Public security information management frequency B 32 Use of data resources and shared frequency B 33 Number of maintenance times B of informationized equipment 34 ；
The second level index mechanism status B 4 The method comprises the following 4 classes of three-level evaluation indexes: public security control management system B 41 Public security responsibility system B 42 Reporting system B for public security accident 43 Ship and shore combined emergency treatment mechanism B 44 。
Further, the step S102 specifically includes:
and calculating the evaluation index weight of each level of security and control capability of the tourist ship by adopting an entropy weight method. The entropy weight method is an objective weight method, avoids the interference of human subjectivity as much as possible, and can better reflect the utility value of index entropy values. When calculating the weights of all levels of evaluation indexes of the security protection and control capability of the tourist ship, the data of each evaluation index is required to be normalized, and for positive and negative indexes, the following formulas are adopted for normalization respectively:
wherein: x is x ij The data value of each level of evaluation index of the security and control capability of the tourist ship is obtained; b ij The normalized evaluation index values of all levels of public security and control capability of the tourist ship; x is x imin ,x imax Respectively the minimum value and the maximum value of each level of evaluation index i of the security and control capability of the tourist ship.
According to the definition of entropy, the entropy value of the included three-level evaluation index i of the second-level evaluation index j is:
wherein:
wherein: b ik The value of the third-level evaluation index i included in the second-level evaluation index k; m is the total number of three-level evaluation indexes; n is the number of the secondary indexes to be evaluated.
Weights w of three-level evaluation indexes i i The method comprises the following steps:
further, step S103 specifically includes:
determining that the public security and control capability of the target trunk line tourist ship is evaluated as a physical element R, and dividing the following 16 evaluation indexes into 5 evaluation grades: u (u) 1 ，u 2 ，…，u 5 : then the evaluation index set b= (B) 11 ，B 12 ，…，B 44 ) Evaluation level set u= { U 1 ，u 2 ，...，u 5 }；
Combining historical data, simultaneously referencing the characteristic of dividing maturity grade by CMM capability maturity model established by university of Carcinyl Meuron research in the United states, and determining that the scoring range of the security and control capability of the target trunk line tourist ship is [50, 100 ] by combining the characteristic of security and control of the target trunk line tourist ship]Thereby determining the evaluation level set u= { U 1 ，u 2 ，…，u 5 The } = { initial stage, repeatable stage, canonical stage, manageable stage, continuous improvement stage }.
Further, in step S104, the classical domain is: the method is divided into an initial stage (50-55), a repeatable stage (55-65), a standard stage (65-85), a manageable stage (85-95) and a continuous improvement stage (95-100) from low to high.
Criterion B 1 The section of (a) is:
criterion B 2 The section of (a) is:
criterion B 3 The section of (a) is:
criterion B 4 The section of (a) is:
the evaluation matter element is as follows:
further, the association function in step S105 is:
in the above, k j (x i ) Represents the ith evaluation index B i Is the j-th evaluation level X of (2) j Is the correlation function value of x i Represents the ith evaluation index B i Is obtained from the evaluation element R, X represents the total partition of 5 evaluation levels, i.e. 50-100, X j Scoring interval, |X, representing the j-th evaluation level j I represents the interval length of the scoring interval of the jth evaluation level, ρ (x) i ,x j ) Representing a score x i To scoring interval x j Is calculated as follows:
wherein a and b are respectively scoring intervals v j Lower and upper limits of (2): i=1, 2, …,16; j=1, 2, …,5;
the association degree calculation formula is as follows:
in the above, lambda i For evaluation index B i Weight value of (2); k (k) j Is the ith evaluation index B i Is the j-th evaluation level X of (2) j Associated function value of (a) and weight value lambda i Is a degree of association of (1); n is an evaluation index B i Total number of evaluation indexes in the corresponding criteria.
Further, in step S106, the method for determining the security and control capability level of the target trunk line tourist ship by using the maximum association degree selection method according to the association degree is as follows: and selecting the association degree with the largest median value among all association degrees, and taking the evaluation grade corresponding to the association degree as the security, protection and control capability grade of the target trunk line tourist ship.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following advantages:
the technical scheme provided by the invention is to establish an evaluation index system based on the actual problem and to utilize an entropy weight method to carry out weight distribution, and on the basis, an association function is established by combining with an extension theory to carry out association calculation on the evaluation index and the evaluation grade, so that the actual engineering problem is intuitively evaluated. The method for grading the security and control capability of the tourist ship based on the entropy weight extension theory can comprehensively and objectively evaluate the security and control capability of the tourist ship of the inland trunk line.
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In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings that are required in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly described, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are some embodiments of the present invention, and other drawings may be obtained according to the drawings without inventive effort to a person skilled in the art.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a method for evaluating security and control capability of a tourist ship on a Yangtze river trunk line based on entropy weight extension theory in an embodiment of the invention.
Fig. 2 is a general framework of a method for evaluating security and control capability of a Yangtze river trunk line tourist ship based on entropy weight extension theory in an embodiment of the invention.
FIG. 3 is a graph of an evaluation index system in an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order that those skilled in the art will better understand the present invention, a technical solution in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings in which it is apparent that the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present invention, not all embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the present invention without making any inventive effort, shall fall within the scope of the present invention.
It should be noted that the terms "first," "second," and the like in the description and the claims of the present invention and the above figures are used for distinguishing between similar objects and not necessarily for describing a particular sequential or chronological order. It is to be understood that the data so used may be interchanged where appropriate such that the embodiments of the invention described herein may be implemented in sequences other than those illustrated or otherwise described herein. Furthermore, the terms "comprises," "comprising," and "having," and any variations thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, system, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of steps or elements is not necessarily limited to those steps or elements expressly listed but may include other steps or elements not expressly listed or inherent to such process, method, article, or apparatus.
The embodiment of the invention provides a method for evaluating security and control capability of a Yangtze river trunk tourist ship based on entropy weight extension theory.
1-2, the invention provides a method for evaluating security, protection and control capability of a Yangtze river trunk line tourist ship based on entropy weight extension theory, which specifically comprises the following steps:
s101, constructing a public security and control capability evaluation index system of a Yangtze river trunk line tourist ship;
s102, calculating weight values of all indexes by adopting an entropy weight method;
s103, establishing a CMM (China mobile multimedia broadcasting) material element capability level model, and determining a public security and control capability evaluation level of the tourist ship of the Yangtze river trunk;
s104, establishing a classical domain, a festival domain and an evaluation object element for evaluating the security and control capability of the Yangtze river trunk tourist ship according to the evaluation grade;
s105, establishing association functions of various evaluation indexes and the evaluation grades in the evaluation index system, and calculating association degrees according to the weight values of the various indexes;
and S106, determining the security and control capability evaluation grade of the Yangtze river trunk tourist ship by adopting a maximum association degree selection method according to the association degree.
Referring to fig. 3, fig. 3 is a diagram of an evaluation index system in an embodiment of the present invention; the public security and control capacity of the Yangtze river trunk tourist ship has more influencing factors, and can be divided into 16 main factors in 4 aspects of people prevention condition, physical prevention condition, technical prevention condition and mechanical condition, so that an evaluation index system shown in figure 3 can be established; the evaluation index system includes: first-order index A: the public security and control capability of the tourist ship of the Yangtze river trunk line; the primary index A comprises 4 classes of secondary indexes, namely 4 criteria: civil air defense condition B 1 Condition B of preventing things 2 Condition B of technical defence 3 Mechanism Condition B 4 ；
The second-level index civil air defense condition B 1 The method comprises the following 4 classes of three-level evaluation indexes: public security and control professional equipment proportion B 11 Frequency B of public security education and training 12 Public security risk management training frequency B 13 Drill frequency B of public security emergency plan 14 ；
The second level index prevents the situation B 2 The method comprises the following 4 classes of three-level evaluation indexes: quantity B of public security equipment 21 Frequency B of use of security equipment 22 Maintenance frequency B of security control equipment 23 Maintenance frequency B of public security, protection and control emergency places 24 ；
The technical protection condition B of the secondary index 3 The method comprises the following 4 classes of three-level evaluation indexes: quantity of informationized facilities equipment B 31 Public security information management frequency B 32 Use of data resources and shared frequency B 33 Number of maintenance times B of informationized equipment 34 ；
The second level index mechanism status B 4 The method comprises the following 4 classes of three-level evaluation indexes: public security control management system B 41 Public security responsibility system B 42 Reporting system B for public security accident 43 Ship and shore combined emergency treatment mechanism B 44 。
The construction modes of the evaluation index system are shown in Table 1.
Table 1 evaluation index System construction method
In step S102, the entropy weighting method is adopted to calculate each index weight, which specifically includes:
s1021, carrying out normalization processing on the data of each evaluation index, and respectively adopting the following formulas for normalization on the positive and negative indexes:
wherein: x is x ij The data value of each level of evaluation index of the security and control capability of the tourist ship is obtained; b ij The normalized evaluation index values of all levels of public security and control capability of the tourist ship; x is x imin ,x imax Respectively the minimum value and the maximum value of each level of evaluation index i of the security and control capability of the tourist ship.
S1022, according to the definition of entropy, the entropy value of the included three-level evaluation index i of the second-level evaluation index j is:
wherein:
wherein: b ik The value of the third-level evaluation index i included in the second-level evaluation index k; m is the total number of three-level evaluation indexes; n is the number of the secondary indexes to be evaluated.
S1023, weight w of evaluation index i i The method comprises the following steps:
in step S103, a CMM object level evaluation is established, and a security and control capability evaluation level of the Yangtze river trunk tourist ship is determined, specifically:
the evaluation and research of the public security and control capability of the Yangtze river trunk tourist ship is determined as a physical element R, and the following 16 evaluation indexes are divided into 5 evaluation grades: u (u) 1 ，u 2 ，…，u 5 : then the evaluation index set b= (B) 11 ，B 12 ，…，B 44 ) Evaluation level set u= { U 1 ，u 2 ，...，u 5 }；
Combining historical data, simultaneously referencing the characteristic of dividing maturity grade by CMM capability maturity model established by university of Carcinyl Meuron research in the United states, and combining the characteristic of security control of the Yangtze trunk tourist ship to determine that the scoring range of security control capability of the Yangtze trunk tourist ship is [50, 100]Thereby determining the evaluation level set u= { U 1 ，u 2 ，…，u 5 The } = { initial stage, repeatable stage, canonical stage, manageable stage, continuous improvement stage }.
In step S104, a classical domain, a saving domain and an evaluation object element for evaluating the security and control capability level of the Yangtze river trunk tourist ship are established according to the evaluation level;
the classical domain is: the method comprises the steps of dividing the method into an initial stage (50-55), a repeatable stage (55-65), a standard stage (65-85), a manageable stage (85-95) and a continuous improvement stage (95-100) from low to high;
criterion B 1 The section of (a) is:
criterion B 2 The section of (a) is:
criterion B 3 The section of (a) is:
criterion B 4 The section of (a) is:
the evaluation matter element is as follows:
rule B in evaluation and research of public security and control capability of tourist ship on Yangtze river trunk line 1 For example, the civil air defense condition is that 5 classical domains of public security level, total range section domain of public security control capability level and evaluation material elements are respectively established, and the specific description is shown in table 2:
TABLE 2B 1 Classical domain, nodal domain and evaluation element of (C)
In step S105, the association function is:
in the above, k j (x i ) Represents the ith evaluation index B i Is the j-th evaluation level X of (2) j Is a function of the association function value of (a); x is x i Represents the ith evaluation index B i Is obtained according to the evaluation element R; x represents a total partition of 5 evaluation grades, namely 50-100; x is X j A scoring section indicating a j-th evaluation level; i X j I represents the interval length of the scoring interval of the jth evaluation level ρ (x) i ,x j ) Representing a score x i To scoring interval x j Is calculated as follows:
wherein a and b are respectively scoring intervals v j Lower and upper limits of (2): i=1, 2, …,16; j=1, 2, …,5;
the association degree calculation formula is as follows:
in the above, lambda i For evaluation index B i Weight value of (2); k (k) j Is the ith evaluation index B i Is the j-th evaluation level X of (2) j Associated function value of (a) and weight value lambda i Is a degree of association of (1); n is an evaluation index B i Total number of evaluation indexes in the corresponding criteria.
In step S106, the method for determining the security and control capability level of the Yangtze river trunk tourist ship by using the maximum association degree selection method according to the association degree is as follows: and selecting the association degree with the largest median value among all association degrees, and taking the evaluation grade corresponding to the association degree as the public security and control capability grade of the Yangtze river trunk tourist ship.
The method utilizes an entropy weight method to calculate the weight of each index, then the indexes are ranked from high to low, and the total ranking result of the public security and control capability evaluation index hierarchy of the Yangtze main line tourist ship is shown in table 3.
TABLE 3 hierarchical total ordering
As can be seen from table 3, in the "President six" tourist passenger ship security control capability evaluation index, the factors influencing the ship security control capability are sequentially sorted from large to small: technical defense condition, mechanism condition, physical defense condition and civil defense condition. And public security information management and informationized facilities are provided with a large proportion. Therefore, in the public security and control construction of the Yangtze main line tourist ship, the technical protection capability is important to be improved.
Combining the public security and control capacity grading of the Yangtze river trunk tourist ship, establishing a classical domain Ri (B)
The established evaluation index system is combined, and each evaluation index dividing criterion is combined with a node domain R (B) established by the evaluation standard
And (3) evaluating and scoring the security and control capability influence factor index of the tourist ship of the president number six according to the ship operation practice. The indexes are 16 items in total, as shown in figure 1, each item is divided into 100 points, and according to the actual score of each index, an evaluation object R of a total six evaluation is established:
according to a calculation formula of a development correlation function, the global system six tourist ship security control capability evaluation index correlation degree k j The calculation results are shown in Table 4.
TABLE 4 Single-layer association degree
From the C-layer evaluation index association degree and the weight distribution result in table 4, the comprehensive association degree of the evaluation indexes of the B-layer and the a-layer in the "president six" public security accident evaluation can be calculated sequentially, and the calculation results are shown in table 5.
Table 5 comprehensive relevance
And according to the comprehensive association degree calculation result in the table 5, obtaining the security and control capability evaluation grade of the Yangtze river trunk tourist ship.
Maximum association degree k of target layer a according to an embodiment mzx ＝k 2 = 0.2040, and the security control capability evaluation level is determined to be "repeatable level".
Finally, it should be noted that: the above embodiments are only for illustrating the technical solution of the present invention, and not for limiting the same; although the invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that: the technical scheme described in the foregoing embodiments can be modified or some or all of the technical features thereof can be replaced by equivalents; such modifications and substitutions do not depart from the spirit of the invention.
Claims (3)
1. The method for evaluating the security, protection and control capability of the tourist ship based on the entropy weight extension theory is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
s101, constructing a tourist ship security and control capability evaluation index system, wherein the evaluation index system comprises:
the first-level index A is the security and control capability of the tourist ship; the primary index A comprises 4 classes of secondary indexes: civil air defense condition B 1 Condition B of preventing things 2 Condition B of technical defence 3 Mechanism Condition B 4 Wherein:
the second-level index civil air defense condition B 1 The method comprises the following 4 classes of three-level evaluation indexes: public security and control professional equipment proportion B 11 Frequency B of public security education and training 12 Public security risk management training frequency B 13 Drill frequency B of public security emergency plan 14 ，
The second level index prevents the situation B 2 The method comprises the following 4 classes of three-level evaluation indexes: quantity B of public security equipment 21 Frequency B of use of security equipment 22 Maintenance frequency B of security control equipment 23 Maintenance frequency B of public security, protection and control emergency places 24 ，
The technical protection condition B of the secondary index 3 The method comprises the following 4 classes of three-level evaluation indexes: quantity of informationized facilities equipment B 31 Public security information management frequency B 32 Use of data resources and shared frequency B 33 Number of maintenance times B of informationized equipment 34 ，
The second level index mechanism status B 4 The method comprises the following 4 classes of three-level evaluation indexes: public security control management system B 41 Public security responsibility system B 42 Reporting system B for public security accident 43 Ship and shore combined emergency treatment mechanism B 44 ；
S102, calculating the weights of all levels of evaluation indexes of the security and control capability of the tourist ship by adopting an entropy weight method, firstly normalizing the data of all evaluation indexes, and respectively normalizing positive and negative indexes by adopting the following formulas:
wherein: x is x ij The data value of each level of evaluation index of the security and control capability of the tourist ship is obtained; b ij The normalized evaluation index values of all levels of public security and control capability of the tourist ship; x is x imin ,x imax Respectively the minimum value and the maximum value of each level of evaluation index i of the security and control capability of the tourist ship;
according to the definition of entropy, the entropy value of the third-level evaluation index i included in the second-level evaluation index j is as follows:
wherein:
wherein: b ik The value of the third-level evaluation index i included in the second-level evaluation index k; m is the total number of three-level evaluation indexes; n is the number of secondary indexes to be evaluated;
weights w of three-level evaluation indexes i i The method comprises the following steps:
s103, establishing a CMM (China Mobile multimedia broadcasting) material element capability level model, and determining a security and control capability evaluation level of the target trunk line tourist ship, wherein the method specifically comprises the following steps of:
determining that the public security and control capability of the target trunk line tourist ship is evaluated as a physical element R, and dividing the following 16 evaluation indexes into 5 evaluation grades: u (u) 1 ，u 2 ，…，u 5 : then the evaluation index set b= (B) 11 ，B 12 ，…，B 44 ) Evaluation level set u= { U 1 ，u 2 ，...，u 5 Combining historical data, and simultaneously referencing the characteristic of dividing maturity grade by CMM capability maturity model established by university of Carcinyl Mercury research, determining that the scoring range of the security and control capability of the target trunk line tourist ship is [50, 100 ] by combining the characteristic of security and control of the target trunk line tourist ship]Thereby determining the evaluation level set u= { U 1 ，u 2 ，…，u 5 The } = { initial stage, repeatable stage, canonical stage, manageable stage, continuous improvement stage };
s104, establishing a classical domain, a festival domain and an evaluation object element for evaluating the security and control capability of the target trunk line tourist ship according to the evaluation grade, wherein the classical domain is as follows: the method is divided into an initial stage (50-55), a repeatable stage (55-65), a standard stage (65-85), a manageable stage (85-95) and a continuous improvement stage (95-100) from low to high,
criterion B 1 The section of (a) is:
criterion B 2 The section of (a) is:
criterion B 3 The section of (a) is:
criterion B 4 The section of (a) is:
the evaluation matter element is as follows:
s105, establishing association functions of various evaluation indexes and the evaluation grades in an evaluation index system, and calculating association degrees;
and S106, determining the security and control capability evaluation grade of the target trunk line tourist ship by adopting a maximum association degree selection method according to the association degree.
2. The method for evaluating the security and control capability of a tourist ship based on the entropy weight extension theory as claimed in claim 1, wherein the correlation function in the step S105 is as follows:
in the above, k j (x i ) Represents the ith evaluation index B i The j-th evaluation level interval X of (2) j Is the correlation function value of x i Represents the ith evaluation index B i Obtained from the evaluation element R, X represents a total partition of 5 evaluation levels, i.e. 50 to 100, and
wherein a and b are respectively scoring intervals v j Lower and upper limits of (2): i=1, 2, …,16; j=1, 2, …,5;
the association degree calculation formula is as follows:
in the above, lambda i For evaluation index B i Weight value of (2); k (k) j Is the ith evaluation index B i Is the j-th evaluation level X of (2) j Associated function value of (a) and weight value lambda i Is a degree of association of (1); n is an evaluation index B i Total number of evaluation indexes in the corresponding criteria.
3. The method for evaluating the security and control capability of the tourist ship based on the entropy weight extension theory as claimed in claim 2, wherein in step S106, the method for determining the security and control capability level of the tourist ship of the target trunk line by adopting the maximum association selection method according to the association is as follows: and selecting the association degree with the largest median value among all association degrees, and taking the evaluation grade corresponding to the association degree as the security, protection and control capability grade of the target trunk line tourist ship.
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