CN112861373B - Method and device for generating impact orbit of near-earth asteroid - Google Patents
Method and device for generating impact orbit of near-earth asteroid Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The application discloses a generation method of a near-earth asteroid impact orbit, which comprises the following steps: calculating the orbit quantity of the near-earth asteroid simulating the orbit of the impinging earth according to the orbit parameter of the near-earth asteroid at the current moment and the position quantity of the earth at the current moment; calculating the probability of the near-earth asteroid forming an orbit striking the earth according to the orbit number; generating a random number by a Monte Carlo simulation method; comparing the random number with the probability to judge whether the near-earth asteroid forms a threat, wherein the random number is generated by a random number function; if the random number is greater than the probability, the near-earth asteroid does not constitute a potential threat; if the random number is less than or equal to the probability, the near-earth asteroid constitutes a potential threat; the method disclosed by the application can be used for rapidly screening the impact orbit of the threatening asteroid, is simple and easy to implement, and reduces the calculated amount. The application also discloses a device for generating the impact orbit of the near-earth asteroid.
Description
Technical Field
The application relates to the technical field of monitoring, early warning and defense coping of a near-earth asteroid, in particular to a method and a device for generating a near-earth asteroid impact orbit, which can be applied to the field of multiple researches related to the near-earth asteroid, such as monitoring analysis, cataloging analysis, risk assessment, defense coping analysis and the like, and can be used for rapidly generating a near-earth asteroid impact orbit set.
Background
The near-earth asteroid is an asteroid whose orbit near-day point is within 1.3 times of the day average distance, and the number of the found asteroid is more than 23000, but a large number of the yet undiscovered near-earth asteroid still exists compared with the theoretical model. Since the orbit of the near-earth asteroid is close to the orbit of the earth, there is indeed a possibility of collision with the earth, and its speed is as high as several tens of kilometers per second, and once it collides with the earth, it generates a huge impact energy and is liable to cause a great disaster. In order to effectively threaten the impact of the asteroid, the harm caused by the impact event is avoided or slowed down as much as possible, the dynamics and geometric distribution rules of the asteroid which possibly impacts the earth are required to be fully researched, an efficient monitoring network is established, the asteroid is searched, found and tracked, and the early warning and even defending of the dangerous event are further realized. Therefore, the near-earth asteroid impact earth orbit is generated through numerical simulation, and the method has important significance for researching and analyzing dynamics and geometric distribution rules of the near-earth asteroid impact earth orbit.
The traditional method adopts a Monte Carlo method to simulate an orbit set of hundreds of millions of near-earth asteroids, and then adopts a numerical integration method to forecast each orbit so as to screen out the impact orbit. The method has the advantages of huge calculation amount and long calculation time, is inconvenient for the full research of large sample size, and therefore, a novel rapid generation method of the earth-collision orbit of the near-earth asteroid is necessary to develop.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the technical problems, the application discloses a generation method of a collision orbit of a near-earth asteroid, which can quickly generate the collision orbit of the near-earth asteroid and reduce the calculated amount. The time consumption of calculation is shortened, and the method is suitable for large-sample-size research.
The application discloses a generation method of a near-earth asteroid impact orbit, which comprises the following steps:
calculating the orbit quantity of the near-earth asteroid simulating the orbit of the impinging earth according to the orbit parameter of the near-earth asteroid at the current moment and the position quantity of the earth at the current moment;
calculating the probability that the near-earth asteroid forms an orbit for striking the earth according to the orbit number;
generating a random number r by a Monte Carlo simulation method;
comparing the random number with the probability to judge whether the near-earth asteroid forms a threat, wherein the random number is generated through a random number function;
if the random number is greater than the probability, the near-earth asteroid does not form a potential threat, and the orbit of the near-earth asteroid for simulating the impact on the earth is abandoned;
and if the random number is smaller than or equal to the probability, the near-earth asteroid constitutes a potential threat, and the orbit of the near-earth asteroid for simulating the impact on the earth is reserved as the impact orbit.
According to some embodiments of the application, the near ground asteroid orbit parameters include semi-major axis, eccentricity, and orbital inclination;
the track root number comprises a near point angle, a near point amplitude angle and an ascending intersection point right ascent;
wherein,,
the true near point angle M is calculated by a Kepler motion equation, and the true near point angle M is calculated by a formula (1):
r Ast represents the center of day distance, r, of the asteroid E The earth's center of gravity, a the minor planet semi-major axis, e the minor planet eccentricity, f the true near point angle, (X) E ，Y E ，Z E ) Representing the position quantity of the earth under a yellow road coordinate system;
the amplitude angle of the near-day point is calculated by the formula (2):
Z Ast ＝r Ast sin(ω+f)sin i＝Z E (2)
Z Ast representing the Z-direction component of the asteroid in the yellow track coordinate system, Z E The Z-direction component of the earth under a yellow road coordinate system is represented, i represents the inclination angle of the asteroid orbit, and ω represents the amplitude angle of the near-day point;
the right ascent point and the right ascent point are calculated by a formula (3):
Ω＝arctan(Y E /X E )-(ω+f)cos i (3)
omega represents the right ascent point.
According to some embodiments of the application, the calculating the probability that the near-earth asteroid forms an orbit that strikes the earth from the orbit root number comprises: the probability is obtained through calculation according to a preset impact distance threshold value and the track number, and the calculation formula comprises a formula (4) and a formula (5):
wherein P represents the probability of collision, delta represents a preset collision distance threshold value, and Deltaf represents a value interval of a true near point angle of collision of the near-earth asteroid with the earth.
According to some embodiments of the application, the preset strike distance threshold has a value ranging from 1 to 1.5 times the radius of the earth.
According to some embodiments of the application, the random number ranges from 0 to a predetermined threshold, and the predetermined threshold has a value ranging from 1×10 -6 ～1×10 -4 。
According to some embodiments of the application, after determining whether the near-earth asteroid constitutes a threat, further comprising: the impact orbits of the plurality of planets determined to constitute the potential threat are constructed as a set of potential threat ground-approaching planets orbits.
The application also discloses a device for generating the impact orbit of the near-ground asteroid, which comprises the following steps:
the acquisition module is used for acquiring the orbit parameters of the near-earth asteroid at the current moment and the position quantity of the earth at the current moment;
the calculation module calculates the orbit root number of the orbit of the near-earth asteroid, which is simulated to strike the earth, according to the orbit parameter of the near-earth asteroid at the current moment and the position quantity of the earth at the current moment, calculates the probability of the near-earth asteroid forming the orbit of striking the earth according to the orbit root number, and calculates a random number through a Monte Carlo simulation method;
the judging module judges whether the near-earth asteroid forms a threat or not through the comparison of the random number and the probability:
if the random number is greater than the probability, the near-earth asteroid does not form a potential threat, and the orbit of the near-earth asteroid for simulating the impact on the earth is abandoned;
if the random number is smaller than or equal to the probability, the near-earth asteroid forms a potential threat, and the orbit of the near-earth asteroid for simulating the earth collision is reserved as the collision orbit;
wherein the random number is a random number generated by a random number function.
According to some embodiments of the application, the obtaining module obtains orbital parameters of the near-earth asteroid including a semi-major axis, an eccentricity, and an orbital tilt;
the calculation module calculates that the orbit root number of the orbit of the near-earth asteroid simulated impact earth comprises the average near point angle, the near-day point amplitude angle and the ascending intersection point right ascent;
wherein,,
the true near point angle M is calculated by a Kepler motion equation, and the true near point angle M is calculated by a formula (1):
r Ast represents the center of day distance, r, of the asteroid E The earth's center of gravity, a the minor planet semi-major axis, c the minor planet eccentricity, f the true near point angle, (X) E ，Y E ，Z E ) Representing the position quantity of the earth under a yellow road coordinate system;
the amplitude angle of the near-day point is calculated by the formula (2):
Z Ast ＝r Ast sin(ω+f)sin i＝Z E (2)
Z Ast representing the Z-direction component of the asteroid in the yellow track coordinate system, Z E The Z-direction component of the earth under a yellow road coordinate system is represented, i represents the inclination angle of the asteroid orbit, and ω represents the amplitude angle of the near-day point;
the right ascent point and the right ascent point are calculated by a formula (3):
Ω＝arctan(Y E /X E )-(ω+f)cos i (3)
omega represents the right ascent point;
the calculating the probability that the near-earth asteroid forms an orbit that strikes the earth according to the orbit number comprises: the probability is obtained through calculation according to a preset impact distance threshold value and the track number, and the calculation formula comprises a formula (4) and a formula (5):
wherein P represents the probability of collision, delta represents a preset collision distance threshold value, and Deltaf represents a value interval of a true near point angle of collision of the near-earth asteroid with the earth.
According to some embodiments of the application, the predetermined impact distance threshold value is 1-1.5 times the radius of the earth, the random number is in the range of 0 to a predetermined threshold value, and the predetermined threshold value is in the range of 1×10 -6 ～1×10 -4 。
The application also discloses a computer readable storage medium, wherein the computer readable storage medium is stored with a program, and the program is executed by a processor to realize the generation method of the near-earth asteroid impact orbit.
According to the technical scheme, the orbit root number of the orbit of the simulated earth is calculated through the data of the near-earth asteroid, the probability of the simulated earth collision is obtained through the orbit root number calculation, and then whether the near-earth asteroid has threat can be rapidly judged by comparing the probability with a random number, namely, the orbit collision can be rapidly generated, so that the method is suitable for large-sample-size research.
Drawings
Fig. 1 schematically shows a flow chart of a method of generating a near-earth asteroid impact trajectory according to an embodiment of the application.
Detailed Description
The present application will be further described in detail below with reference to specific embodiments and with reference to the accompanying drawings, in order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present application more apparent.
It should be understood that the description is only illustrative and is not intended to limit the scope of the application. In the following detailed description, for purposes of explanation, numerous specific details are set forth in order to provide a thorough understanding of the embodiments of the application. It may be evident, however, that one or more embodiments may be practiced without these specific details. In the following description, descriptions of well-known techniques are omitted so as not to unnecessarily obscure the concept of the present application.
The terminology used herein is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of the application. The term "comprising" as used herein indicates the presence of a feature, step, operation, but does not preclude the presence or addition of one or more other features.
All terms (including technical and scientific terms) used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art unless otherwise defined. It should be noted that the terms used herein should be construed to have meanings consistent with the context of the present specification and should not be construed in an idealized or overly formal manner, such as the monte carlo (monte carlo) method, also known as the random sampling or statistical bai simulation method, which broadly refers to all methods of numerical computation based on statistical sampling, generally comprising the three steps of constructing or describing a probability process, sampling from a known probability distribution, and establishing an estimate.
In order to solve the technical problems, the application discloses a generation method of a collision orbit of a near-earth asteroid, which can quickly generate the collision orbit of the near-earth asteroid and reduce the calculated amount. The time consumption of calculation is shortened, and the method is suitable for large-sample-size research.
Fig. 1 schematically shows a flow chart of a method of generating a near-earth asteroid impact trajectory according to an embodiment of the application.
The application discloses a generation method of a near-earth asteroid impact orbit, which comprises the steps of S1, S2, S3 and S4 as shown in figure 1.
According to some embodiments of the application, step S1 comprises: and calculating the orbit quantity of the near-earth asteroid simulating the orbit of the impinging earth according to the orbit parameter of the near-earth asteroid at the current moment and the position quantity of the earth at the current moment.
According to some embodiments of the present application, the orbit parameters (i.e., orbit root) of the planet generally include 6 parameters (semi-major axis a, eccentricity e, orbit inclination angle i, ascending intersection point right angle Ω, near day point argument ω, and even near point angle M), wherein the semi-major axis a, eccentricity e, orbit inclination angle i can be obtained by observation, and ascending intersection point right angle Ω, near day point argument ω, and even near point angle M are generally random numbers.
According to some embodiments of the application, step S2 comprises: the probability of the near-earth asteroid forming an orbit striking the earth is calculated from the orbit number. Specifically, the orbit number of the near asteroid includes the latter three parameters (Ω, ω, and M) that are all random values, and when the orbit of the near asteroid is fixed to strike the earth, the latter three parameters (Ω, ω, and M) are determined values, that is, the parameters of the orbit number calculated in step S1. Therefore, the probability in step S2 refers to the ratio of the number of orbits of the earth that the near-earth asteroid strikes to the number of orbits of the near-earth asteroid.
According to some embodiments of the application, step S3 comprises: a random number r is generated by a Monte Carlo simulation method.
According to some embodiments of the present application, as shown in fig. 1, there is no sequence between the step S3 and the step S1 or the step S2.
According to some embodiments of the application, step S4 comprises: comparing the random number r with the probability P to judge whether the near-earth asteroid forms a threat, if the random number r is larger than the probability P, the near-earth asteroid does not form a potential threat, and the near-earth asteroid is abandoned to simulate the orbit of impacting the earth, namely, no impacting orbit is generated; if the random number r is less than or equal to the probability P, the near-earth asteroid constitutes a potential threat, and the orbit of the near-earth asteroid for simulating the earth collision is reserved as the collision orbit, that is, the calculated orbit for simulating the earth collision is taken as the collision orbit, wherein the random number is generated through a random number function.
According to some embodiments of the application, after determining whether the near-earth asteroid constitutes a threat in step S4, further comprises: the impact orbits of the plurality of planets determined to constitute the potential threat are constructed as a set of potential threat ground-approaching planets orbits.
According to some embodiments of the application, the impact orbits of the threatening perigeine can be rapidly screened out by the method.
According to some embodiments of the application, the near ground asteroid orbit parameters include semi-major axis, eccentricity, and orbital inclination;
the track root number comprises a straight-up point angle, a straight-up point amplitude angle and an ascending intersection point right ascent;
wherein,,
the true and near point angles are calculated to obtain a plane and near point angle M through a Kepler motion equation, and the true and near point angles are calculated through a formula (1):
r Ast represents the center of day distance, r, of the asteroid E The earth's center of gravity, a the minor planet semi-major axis, e the minor planet eccentricity, f the true near point angle, (X) E ，Y E ，Z E ) Representing the position quantity of the earth under a yellow road coordinate system;
the amplitude angle of the near day point is calculated by the formula (2):
Z Ast ＝r Ast sin(ω+f)sin i＝Z E (2)
Z Ast representing the Z-direction component of the asteroid in the yellow track coordinate system, Z E The Z-direction component of the earth under a yellow road coordinate system is represented, i represents the inclination angle of the asteroid orbit, and ω represents the amplitude angle of the near-day point;
the right ascent point is calculated by the formula (3):
Ω＝arctan(Y E /X E )-(ω+f)cos i (3)
omega represents the right ascent point.
According to some embodiments of the application, calculating the probability that a near-earth asteroid forms an orbit that strikes the earth from the orbit root comprises: the probability is obtained through calculation according to a preset impact distance threshold value and a track root number, wherein the calculation formula comprises a formula (4) and a formula (5):
wherein P represents the probability of collision, delta represents a preset collision distance threshold value, and Deltaf represents a value interval of a true near point angle of collision of the near-earth asteroid with the earth.
According to some embodiments of the application, the predetermined strike distance threshold has a value in the range of 1 to 1.5 times the radius of the earth.
According to some embodiments of the application, when the preset strike distance threshold is equal to the earth radius, the orbit of the near-earth asteroid rubs across the earth's surface, also causing a collision.
According to some embodiments of the present application, because of the gravitational force, when the orbit of the near asteroid is a distance above the earth's surface, the near asteroid is "pulled" toward the earth's surface by the force of the earth's gravitational force and collides. Therefore, the preset impact distance threshold value is 1 to 1.5 times of the radius of the earth based on the action of the earth's attraction force. The commonly used preset strike distance threshold is 1.3 times the earth radius.
According to some embodiments of the application, the random number ranges from 0 to a predetermined threshold, and the predetermined threshold has a value ranging from 1×10 -6 ～1×10 -4 。
According to some embodiments of the present application, the probability value of the near-earth asteroid striking the earth is calculated to be small, if a random number between 0 and 1 is adopted, the striking orbit cannot be selected with a large probability, and therefore, the range of the preset threshold value is set to be 1×10 based on experience -6 ～1×10 -4 Wherein the preset threshold value is 1×10 -5 . Wherein the smaller the preset threshold value is, the more impact tracks are screened out, otherwise,the fewer.
The application also discloses a device for generating the near-ground asteroid impact orbit, which comprises an acquisition module, a calculation module and a judgment module.
According to some embodiments of the application, the acquisition module is used for acquiring orbit parameters of the near-earth asteroid at the current moment and the position quantity of the earth at the current moment.
According to some embodiments of the application, the calculation module calculates the orbit root number of the orbit of the near-earth asteroid, which simulates the earth to be impacted, according to the orbit parameter of the near-earth asteroid at the current moment and the position quantity of the earth at the current moment, calculates the probability of the near-earth asteroid forming the orbit to be impacted to the earth according to the orbit root number, and calculates a random number through a Monte Carlo simulation method.
According to some embodiments of the application, the judging module judges whether the near-earth asteroid forms a threat or not through the random number and probability comparison; if the random number is greater than the probability, the near-earth asteroid does not form a potential threat, and the orbit of the near-earth asteroid for simulating the impact on the earth is abandoned; if the random number is less than or equal to the probability, the near-earth asteroid constitutes a potential threat, and the orbit of the near-earth asteroid for simulating the earth collision is reserved as the collision orbit.
According to some embodiments of the present application, the generating device of the impact orbit of the near-earth asteroid may be used to implement the generating method of the impact orbit of the near-earth asteroid provided in the above embodiments, and the description of the generating device of the impact orbit of the near-earth asteroid may refer to the generating method of the impact orbit of the near-earth asteroid, which is not repeated herein.
According to some embodiments of the application, the random number is a random number generated by a random number function.
According to some embodiments of the application, the acquisition module acquires orbital parameters of the near-earth asteroid including semi-major axis, eccentricity, and orbital tilt.
The calculation module calculates that the orbit root number of the orbit of the near-earth asteroid, which is simulated to strike the earth, comprises the average near point angle, the amplitude angle of the near-day point and the right ascent and descent point.
According to some embodiments of the present application, the near point angle M is calculated from the near point angle by kepler equation of motion, and the near point angle is calculated by formula (1):
r Ast represents the center of day distance, r, of the asteroid E The earth's center of gravity, a the minor planet semi-major axis, e the minor planet eccentricity, f the true near point angle, (X) E ，Y E ，Z E ) Representing the position quantity of the earth under a yellow road coordinate system;
the amplitude angle of the near day point is calculated by the formula (2):
Z Ast ＝r Ast sin(ω+f)sin i＝Z E (2)
Z Ast representing the Z-direction component of the asteroid in the yellow track coordinate system, Z E The Z-direction component of the earth under a yellow road coordinate system is represented, i represents the inclination angle of the asteroid orbit, and ω represents the amplitude angle of the near-day point;
the right ascent point is calculated by the formula (3):
Ω＝arctan(Y E /X E )-(ω+f)cos i (3)
omega represents the right ascent point;
calculating the probability of the earth-near asteroid forming an orbit that strikes the earth from the orbit root number includes: the probability is obtained through calculation according to a preset impact distance threshold value and a track root number, wherein the calculation formula comprises a formula (4) and a formula (5):
wherein P represents the probability of collision, delta represents a preset collision distance threshold value, and Deltaf represents a value interval of a true near point angle of collision of the near-earth asteroid with the earth.
According to the applicationIn some embodiments, the predetermined strike distance threshold is in the range of 1 to 1.5 times the radius of the earth, the random number is in the range of 0 to the predetermined threshold, and the predetermined threshold is in the range of 1×10 -6 ～1×10 -4 。
According to some embodiments of the application, when the preset strike distance threshold is equal to the earth radius, the orbit of the near-earth asteroid rubs across the earth's surface, also causing a collision.
According to some embodiments of the present application, because of the gravitational force, when the orbit of the near asteroid is a distance above the earth's surface, the near asteroid is "pulled" toward the earth's surface by the force of the earth's gravitational force and collides. Therefore, the preset impact distance threshold value is 1 to 1.5 times of the radius of the earth based on the action of the earth's attraction force. The commonly used preset strike distance threshold is 1.3 times the earth radius.
According to some embodiments of the present application, the probability value of the near-earth asteroid striking the earth is calculated to be small, if a random number between 0 and 1 is adopted, the striking orbit cannot be selected with a large probability, and therefore, the range of the preset threshold value is set to be 1×10 based on experience -6 ～1×10 -4 Wherein the preset threshold value is 1×10 -5 . The smaller the preset threshold value is, the more impact tracks are screened out, and otherwise, the fewer impact tracks are screened out.
The application also discloses a computer readable storage medium, and the computer readable storage medium stores a program which is executed by a processor to realize the generation method of the near-earth asteroid impact orbit.
The technical solution of the present application will be described with reference to the specific embodiments, and it should be understood that the specific embodiments are only for facilitating the person skilled in the art to better understand the technical solution of the present application, and are not limiting the scope of protection of the present application.
Example 1
A set of orbital numbers simulating the near ground asteroid was selected (see table 1).
TABLE 1 number of orbits simulating ground-near asteroid
| Parameters(s) | Value of | Unit (B) |
| Track calendar element (MJD) | 56532.000000 | Tiantian (Chinese character of 'Tian') |
| Semi-long axis | 2.591554 | AU |
| Eccentricity ratio | 0.621487 | --- |
| Track inclination angle | 17.101098 | Degree of |
| Yellow meridian at ascending intersection point | 143.944912 | Degree of |
| Near day point amplitude angle | 188.606259 | Degree of |
| Angle of flat and near point | 56.437647 | Degree of |
The number of orbits simulating the orbit of the near-earth asteroid when the asteroid strikes the earth is calculated by the formulas (1), (2) and (3), respectively, and the specific results are shown in Table 2.
TABLE 2 number of ground impact orbits to simulate ground-approaching asteroid
| Parameters(s) | Value of | Unit (B) |
| Track calendar element (MJD) | 56532.000000 | Tiantian (Chinese character of 'Tian') |
| Semi-long axis | 2.591554 | AU |
| Eccentricity ratio | 0.621487 | --- |
| Track inclination angle | 17.101098 | Degree of |
| Yellow meridian at ascending intersection point | 99.747368 | Degree of |
| Near day point amplitude angle | 6.4010272 | Degree of |
| Angle of flat and near point | 358.82628 | Degree of |
From the data of table 2, the probability p= 4.588 ×10 is calculated using formulas (4) and (5) -9 。
A random number r= 3.256 ×10 is calculated by a Monte Carlo simulation method -6 。
From the comparison of r and P, it can be concluded that the near-earth asteroid is not threatening and is not considered as a simulated near-earth asteroid impact orbit.
Example two
A set of orbital numbers simulating the near ground asteroid was selected (see table 3).
TABLE 3 number of orbits of another simulated ground asteroid
| Parameters(s) | Value of | Unit (B) |
| Track calendar element (MJD) | 56532.000000 | Tiantian (Chinese character of 'Tian') |
| Semi-long axis | 1.439013 | AU |
| Eccentricity ratio | 0.316724 | --- |
| Track inclination angle | 6.810698 | Degree of |
| Yellow meridian at ascending intersection point | 168.831638 | Degree of |
| Near day point amplitude angle | 82.260668 | Degree of |
| Angle of flat and near point | 56.132820 | Degree of |
The number of orbits simulating the orbit of the near-earth asteroid when the asteroid strikes the earth is calculated by formulas (1), (2) and (3), respectively, and the specific results are shown in table 4.
TABLE 4 number of ground impact orbits of another simulated ground-proximity asteroid
| Parameters(s) | Value of | Unit (B) |
| Track calendar element (MJD) | 56532.000000 | Tiantian (Chinese character of 'Tian') |
| Semi-long axis | 1.439010 | AU |
| Eccentricity ratio | 0.316724 | --- |
| Track inclination angle | 6.810692 | Degree of |
| Yellow meridian at ascending intersection point | 99.759401 | Degree of |
| Near day point amplitude angle | 358.808517 | Degree of |
| Angle of flat and near point | 0.576653 | Degree of |
From the data of table 2, the probability p= 3.459 ×10 is calculated using formulas (4) and (5) -7 。
A random number r= 1.819 ×10 is calculated by a Monte Carlo simulation method -7 。
From the comparison of r and P, it can be concluded that this near-earth asteroid has a threat, which is taken as a simulated near-earth asteroid impact orbit.
According to the technical scheme, the orbit root number of the orbit of the earth is calculated by the data of the near-earth asteroid, the probability of the earth is obtained by calculating the orbit root number, and then whether the near-earth asteroid has threat can be rapidly judged by comparing the probability with a random number, namely, the method and the device disclosed by the application can rapidly generate the orbit, and are suitable for large-sample-size research.
The method and the device disclosed by the application can judge the attribution of most observation arc sections only through angular velocity screening, and in the association judgment method, the number of the artificial earth satellites needing to be subjected to association calculation is only in the order of tens of magnitude, so that the method is simple and easy to implement.
The method of the application is applicable to a plurality of research fields related to astronomical observation: in the fields of asteroid monitoring and early warning, space debris monitoring and early warning, solar system celestial body research and the like, researchers are required to quickly identify the attribution condition of observed data so as to eliminate the interference of irrelevant data.
The method provided by the application can be suitable for the rapid identification of the near-earth asteroid, and precious early warning and emergency time is strived for subsequent work; because of the large number of non-cataloged ground planets around the earth's orbit, they are typically observed only in very close proximity due to their small size, and once found as dangerous celestial bodies, the time of early warning and emergency is extremely urgent.
Thus, embodiments of the present disclosure have been described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. It should be noted that, in the drawings or the text of the specification, implementations not shown or described are all forms known to those of ordinary skill in the art, and not described in detail. Furthermore, the above definitions of the components are not limited to the specific structures, shapes or modes mentioned in the embodiments, and may be simply modified or replaced by those of ordinary skill in the art.
It should also be noted that, in the specific embodiments of the disclosure, unless otherwise noted, the numerical parameters set forth in the specification and attached claims are approximations that may vary depending upon the desired properties sought to be obtained by the present disclosure. In particular, all numbers expressing dimensions, range conditions, and so forth, used in the specification and claims are to be understood as being modified in all instances by the term "about". In general, the meaning of expression is meant to include a variation of + -10% in some embodiments, a variation of + -5% in some embodiments, a variation of + -1% in some embodiments, and a variation of + -0.5% in some embodiments by a particular amount.
Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the features recited in the various embodiments of the application and/or in the claims may be combined in various combinations and/or combinations, even if such combinations or combinations are not explicitly recited in the application. In particular, the features recited in the various embodiments of the application and/or in the claims can be combined in various combinations and/or combinations without departing from the spirit and teachings of the application. All such combinations and/or combinations fall within the scope of the application.
The foregoing description of the embodiments has been provided for the purpose of illustrating the general principles of the application, and is not meant to limit the application thereto, but to limit the application thereto, and any modifications, equivalents, improvements and equivalents thereof may be made without departing from the spirit and principles of the application.
Claims (7)
1. A method for generating a near-earth asteroid impact orbit, comprising:
according to an orbit parameter of a near-earth asteroid at the current moment and the position quantity of the earth at the current moment, calculating an orbit root number of the near-earth asteroid simulating an orbit striking the earth, wherein the near-earth asteroid orbit parameter comprises a semi-long axis, eccentricity and an orbit inclination angle, the orbit root number comprises a near-plain angle, a near-sun point amplitude angle and an ascending intersection point right ascent, the near-plain angle M is calculated by the near-plain angle through a Kepler equation of motion, and the near-plain angle is calculated by a formula (1):
r Ast represents the center of day distance, r, of the asteroid E The earth's center of gravity, a the minor planet semi-major axis, e the minor planet eccentricity, f the true near point angle, (X) E ,Y E ,Z E ) Representing the position quantity of the earth under a yellow road coordinate system;
the amplitude angle of the near-day point is calculated by the formula (2):
Z Ast ＝r Ast sin(ω+f)sini＝Z E (2)
Z Ast representing the Z-direction component of the asteroid in the yellow track coordinate system, Z E The Z-direction component of the earth under a yellow road coordinate system is represented, i represents the inclination angle of the asteroid orbit, and ω represents the amplitude angle of the near-day point;
the right ascent point and the right ascent point are calculated by a formula (3):
Ω＝arctan(Y E /X E )-(ω+f)cosi(3)
omega represents the right ascent point;
calculating the probability of the near-earth asteroid forming an orbit that strikes the earth according to the orbit number, comprising:
the probability is obtained through calculation according to a preset impact distance threshold value and the track number, and the calculation formula comprises a formula (4) and a formula (5):
wherein P represents the probability of collision, delta represents a preset collision distance threshold value, and Deltaf represents a value interval of a true near point angle of collision of the near asteroid with the earth;
generating a random number by a Monte Carlo simulation method;
comparing the random number with the probability to judge whether the near-earth asteroid forms a threat, wherein the random number is generated through a random number function;
if the random number is greater than the probability, the near-earth asteroid does not form a potential threat, and the orbit of the near-earth asteroid for simulating the impact on the earth is abandoned;
and if the random number is smaller than or equal to the probability, the near-earth asteroid constitutes a potential threat, and the orbit of the near-earth asteroid for simulating the impact on the earth is reserved as the impact orbit.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the predetermined impact distance threshold has a value ranging from 1 to 1.5 times the radius of the earth.
3. The method according to claim 2, wherein the random number ranges from 0 to a predetermined threshold value, and the predetermined threshold value ranges from 1 x 10 -6 ～1×10 -4 。
4. A method of generating as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 3, further comprising, after determining whether the near-earth asteroid constitutes a threat: the impact orbits of the plurality of planets determined to constitute the potential threat are constructed as a set of potential threat ground-approaching planets orbits.
5. A device for generating a near-earth asteroid impact trajectory, comprising:
the acquisition module is used for acquiring orbit parameters of the near-earth asteroid at the current moment and the position quantity of the earth at the current moment, wherein the orbit parameters comprise a semi-long axis, eccentricity and an orbit inclination angle;
the calculation module calculates the orbit root number of the orbit of the near-earth asteroid, which simulates the impinging earth, according to the orbit parameter of the near-earth asteroid at the current moment and the position quantity of the earth at the current moment, wherein the orbit root number comprises a near-plain angle, a near-sun point amplitude angle and an ascending intersection point right ascent, the near-plain angle M is calculated by the near-plain angle through a Kepler equation of motion, and the near-plain angle is calculated by a formula (1):
r Ast represents the center of day distance, r, of the asteroid E The earth's center of gravity, a the minor planet semi-major axis, e the minor planet eccentricity, f the true near point angle, (X) E ,Y E ,Z E ) Representing the position quantity of the earth under a yellow road coordinate system;
the amplitude angle of the near-day point is calculated by the formula (2):
Z Ast ＝r Ast sin(ω+f)sini＝Z E (2)
Z Ast representing the Z-direction component of the asteroid in the yellow track coordinate system, Z E The Z-direction component of the earth under a yellow road coordinate system is represented, i represents the inclination angle of the asteroid orbit, and ω represents the amplitude angle of the near-day point;
the right ascent point and the right ascent point are calculated by a formula (3):
Ω＝arctan(Y E /X E )-(ω+f)cosi(3)
omega represents the right ascent point and the right ascent point,
calculating the probability of the near-earth asteroid forming an orbit that strikes the earth according to the orbit number, comprising:
the probability is obtained through calculation according to a preset impact distance threshold value and the track number, and the calculation formula comprises a formula (4) and a formula (5):
wherein P represents the probability of collision, delta represents a preset collision distance threshold value, and Deltaf represents a value interval of a true near point angle of collision of the near asteroid with the earth;
calculating to obtain a random number by a Monte Carlo simulation method;
the judging module judges whether the near-earth asteroid forms a threat or not through the comparison of the random number and the probability:
if the random number is greater than the probability, the near-earth asteroid does not form a potential threat, and the orbit of the near-earth asteroid for simulating the impact on the earth is abandoned;
if the random number is smaller than or equal to the probability, the near-earth asteroid forms a potential threat, and the orbit of the near-earth asteroid for simulating the earth collision is reserved as the collision orbit;
wherein the random number is a random number generated by a random number function.
6. The device according to claim 5, wherein the predetermined impact distance threshold has a value ranging from 1 to 1.5 times the radius of the earth, the random number ranges from 0 to a predetermined threshold, and the predetermined threshold has a value ranging from 1 x 10 -6 ～1×10 -4 。
7. A computer-readable storage medium having a program stored thereon, characterized in that the program, when executed by a processor, implements the generating method of any of claims 1-4.
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